July 01, 2007
No Pop in Papi
Kevin Hench examines David Ortiz's power failure:
The lousy selection of pitches to choose from has been compounded by the lousy hitting weather that has bedeviled Papi right out of the gate.
On April 6, in normally hitter-friendly Texas, Ortiz went 0-for-4 as Robinson Tejeda two-hit the Red Sox over seven innings with a gale-force wind blowing into the batters' faces. The teams combined for seven total bases. It was physically impossible to hit the ball out that day.
It was an omen.
The wind has blown in three directions at Fenway this season. In from left. In from center. And in from right. Longtime Red Sox analyst Jerry Remy who grew up in Fall River, Mass., and played for the Sox from 1978 to 1984 has remarked frequently this season that he's never seen the wind quite like this.
In a word, it blows.
Fenway is already murder on left-handed power hitters with right field darting out abruptly to 380 feet, but it's been playing to a par-7 this year for lefties. At least eight times Big Papi has hit a ball on the screws only to see it die on the warning track and disappear into an outfielder's glove
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Ortiz only hit three home runs at Fenway this season vs. ten on the road. Note that Ortiz was a better road home run hitter in 2006, hitting 32 of his 54 away from Fenway. He's way off both those paces this season. And although the explanation of Ramirez having a bad season make a bit of sense, I think pitchers just decided that Ortiz is too dangerous. At this point, no one wants to challenge Big Papi. He's going to need to adjust to the new way pitchers treat him. He still has his plate discipline, and he's still hitting the ball hard as you can see in his doubles total. Eventually, he'll start hitting the mistakes out of the park.
Posted by David Pinto at
11:09 AM
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The story isn't really Papi's power outage, but that of baseball in general.
For example, we've got one week to go before the all-star break. Last season at the break there were 22 players with 20 homers or more.
This season? 5!
And it's likely in the next week only Hardy (18), Sheffield (18), and Howard (19) could be joining that club, unless some of the 5 on 17 have a very good week.
Has the wind been blowing in at every park?
Ortiz has been adjusting to how he's being pitched, and to the overshift he faces. So far this year, his BA and OBA are up substantially over his impressive career norms, while slugging is down somewhat. Anecdotally, it seems like he's getting a lot more hits to left-center than he used to. And again anecdotally, it seems like he's less likely to make outs into the teeth of the overshift -- liners to the second baseman in short right, hot grounders up the middle fielded by the shortstop, shots down the line that the first baseman picks up.
