Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
July 23, 2007
Games of the Day

Jon Lester starts for the Red Sox today after battling cancer last year.


Lester51530763_Red_Sox_Royals.jpg

Photo: Douglas Jones/Icon SMI


Lester pitched fairly well in his stint at Pawtucket. His walks were a little high, but he kept the long balls low as witnessed by his .343 slugging percentage allowed (The stats at the link appear not to include his last start). And he was effective against right-handed batters.

The Red Sox are throwing him right into the fire, however, as he'll face the Cleveland Indians. The Tribe ranks third in the American League in runs per game. Plus, they hit left handers well, with both a higher OBA and slugging percentage than against right-handed pitchers.

However, the Red Sox offense ranks right behind Cleveland's, and they'll be facing the hittable Jake Westbrook. Overall the league is hitting a healthy .288 against Westbrook, while lefties are slugging .486 against him. Lester is likely to get plenty of run support tonight.

It's an important game for both teams. The Indians are one game behind Detroit for the division lead and just 2 1/2 games ahead of Seattle for the Wild Card. They are also one behind the Red Sox which would be important in defining home field advantage in the playoffs. Cleveland is 34-15 at home. Boston is now behind Detroit for best record in the AL, so winning here not only holds off the Yankees but gives them a better shot at home field advantage as well.

Two teams on the edge of contention face off in Toronto as Johan Santana takes on Shaun Marcum. The Twins are seven back in the wild card race, the Blue Jays ten. Marcum sports a 3.24 ERA as a starter this season, his big flaw the long ball. Part of that is the Rogers Center, as eleven of his sixteen home runs allowed came at home. The big difference between Santana this year and his five previous dominant seasons is right-handed power. Righties are slugging .392 against Johan in 2007; they slugged just .336 against him from 2002-2006.

Roger Clemens faces a team he dominates as the Yankees travel to Kansas City to face the Royals. He's 24-7 against them in his career with a 2.17 ERA. He'll face Odalis Perez, who's allowing a .337 BA at home.

Finally, Barry Bonds returns to San Francisco two shy tying Henry Aarons' career home run record. He'll face a tough opponent as John Smoltz takes the hill against Matt Cain. Bonds, however, hit Smoltz very well over the years. His OBA is .464 against John, and his slugging percentage .734. He's homered eight times in eight squared at bats vs. Smoltz, walking 20 times and striking out just 14.

Enjoy!


Posted by David Pinto at 11:24 AM | Matchups | TrackBack (0)
Comments

I've watched Lester pretty closely this year, and he's been struggling lately. He started off like gangbusters, then has come down to earth. Lots of walks his last few outings...

Posted by: Paul at July 23, 2007 01:08 PM
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