August 10, 2007
Improbable Streak
The Arizona Diamondbacks won again last night, defeating the Pirates 4-2 for their fifteenth win in eighteen games. The win propelled them to a three-game lead in the NL West. During the run, the Diamondbacks out-scored their opponents by just twelve runs, 87-75. That works out to a projected winning percentage of .574, a 10-8 record. Now, in a small sample of games, almost anything can happen, but their winning percentage of .833 is significantly different from what we would expect. A .574 team would be expected to win at least 15 of 18 1.98% of the time (probability .0198). And the 95% confidence interval over 18 games for a .574 club is six to fourteen wins.
Part of the explanation is that Arizona is 6-0 in one-run games over this span. Another part is that when they've lost, they've lost big, but a combined score of 33-3. All the close games, however, make for a fun team to cover:
This is how a game was won. With a slow curve and an 85-mph fastball. With a weak grounder to the right side. With a shot through a drawn-in infield.
Power and speed and elegance can rule in baseball, but the Diamondbacks won Thursday night with dirt under their fingernails - and with their knuckles stinging.
They gritted out a 4-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates at Chase Field, getting another great outing from left-hander Doug Davis and doing enough little things to come away with another series victory.
Doug Davis, last night's starter, has pitched very well during this streak, cutting down his walks and home runs. They're not a great team, but a little luck can take a good team a long way.
Yeah yeah, the D-Backs are playing some great & lucky baseball, but they're about to run headfirst into the buzzsaw known as the WASHINGTON NATIONALS. The Nats are speeding on the drive to .500.
Actually, it's easy to make fun of the Nats, but their team ERA has been the best in baseball since July and I honestly think that Manny Acta would deserve Manager of the Year consideration if he can get them anywhere near .500 by season's end, given how utterly dire the CW predicted them to be in the spring. Particularly because, unlike the Marlins last year, the Nats AREN'T fielding a bunch of young studs who could easily end up as superstars...they've got one guy with extraordinary potential, some surprising veterans, and a bunch of replacement-level players.
The Snakes are a good team. They were my pre-season pick to win the NL West, and I don't understand how so many experts can be surprised by their presence in the middle of the race. The team that's hanging around way longer than I expected is Colorado.
