Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 13, 2007
Catching Again

The Yankees and Jorge Posada reached a Monday last night, making Jorge the highest paid catcher in the majors:

Posada, a free agent, could have started negotiating with other teams today, and the Mets, who need a catcher, would have been among his suitors. But Posada wanted to stay with the Yankees, and their contract, worth at least $52 million, rewards him for one of the best seasons any catcher has had.

The Yankees' contract ensures that Posada, 36, will be signed through his 40th birthday. Posada will also make more, at least initially, than Detroit's Iván Rodríguez, whose $13 million contract for 2008 is the record for a catcher.

My Baseball Bias likes the deal. He invokes Carlton Fisk to deal with age issues:

As for Posada's next four years in Pinstripes, it will be interesting to see how he holds up physically. He's never been on the DL and the Yankees will have to see that he gets more playing time at first-base and DH to save his knees. Maybe a nice chair recliner in the corner of the dugout would be a nice gesture.

If we're looking for a historical comparable for Posada, we might turn our eyes to Carlton Fisk. Later in his career he was still catching over 100 games a season.

Fisk played in 413 major league games through age 27, mostly due to injury. Posada appeared in 292 games through age 27, due to Joe Girardi's ability to handle a pitching staff. Neither man caught that much young, possibly giving them the stamina in last into their forties. Of course, Varitek caught even fewer than both of them through age 27, and he's clearly fading.

It's not a great deal for the Yankees. Posada is much more likely to decline. His 2007 are the best of his career, an outlier even for a great hitter like Jorge. If the Yankees start moving him to another position like first base or DH, Jorge's career numbers are good but not great for those positions. A perfectly good strategy for New York would be to let Rivera and Posada go, take the draft picks, and go into full rebuilding mode.

From a loyalty point of view, however, the Yankees are certainly doing the right thing. It looks like Jeter, Posada and Rivera play for New York their entire careers. It's just not clear how much they will actually help the team as they age.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:56 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Terrible deal for the Yanks, he will revert to form and fade simultaneously. This will be amusing to watch.

Posted by: abe at November 13, 2007 08:34 AM

Loyalty, public relations and last but not least lack of viable options make this deal necessary.

Posted by: Mark at November 13, 2007 08:59 AM

Don't discount the knowledge he'll impart on the Yankees' young pitching staff. Would you want Loduca or Castro dealing with them? Not when you can have Posada. Think of the money as part Thank You, part You're The Best Catcher In Baseball, and part Help Out The Youngsters.

Posted by: sabernar at November 13, 2007 09:02 AM

Abe,

Revert to form? You mean post a 400 OBP and hit 20 hrs and 85 rbi as a catcher? Because that is his "form." I'll take his "form" from catcher any day of the week.

Posted by: Ben at November 13, 2007 09:29 AM

Keep bitching Yankeee haters. It's not about loyalty. Look what they did with Bernie Williams. They need Posada as a leader on and off the field.

Posted by: tc at November 13, 2007 09:48 AM

I think those numbers from a part time catcher, part time DH are just fine. If Posada can still hit close to .300 with a .400 OBP and play catcher for half the games, he's worth the money. Of course the Yankees overpaid, but they don't have a catcher in the system who can take Jorgie's place.

There also aren't many catchers on the open market that can do what Posada can do at the plate. Even if his numbers decline and he OBPs .360, how many catchers can do that? The answer in 2007 was:

Posada
Mauer
Martinez
Varitek
Bard

That's it for everday catchers. How many DHs did that?

Ortiz
Thome
Hafner
Vidro
Sheffield
F. Thomas

That's it. There are 10 players who played either full time catcher or full time DH that had an OBP of .360 in the Major Leagues. If Posada can split time at those spots and retain 75% of his current OBP value, he'll be a good keep for the Yankees.

Posted by: Mike Plugh at November 13, 2007 10:05 AM

Don't discount the knowledge he'll impart on the Yankees' young pitching staff. He's not a very good catcher and unless they lose Pettite they don't have a very young staff - If they do lose Pettite it won't matter who's catching them. They are overpaying him for being a very good player for a long time. The problem with that is they have him and won't be able to move him for 4 years - him, Matsui and Giambi can all DH.

Posted by: Bandit at November 13, 2007 10:30 AM

Mike, when you're creating a list with Jose Vidro on it, maybe you need to set the bar a little higher. My guess is that there just weren't that many full-time DHs to qualify for your standards.

There have got to be about 100 players in the majors and minors who could post a .340 OBP as a part-time DH. Fun fact: in 132 at bats against righties last season, Christian Guzman had an OBP of .387. Mark De Rosa (357 at bats): .373.

Next argument, please.

Posted by: Josh at November 13, 2007 10:40 AM

Posada is a great catcher, and has caught 1360 games. 1800-1900 is typical for a durable catcher. 360-440 games caught over the next 4 years would be a reasonable figure for him. Some deterioration from his career norm (124 OPS+) would be reasonable to expect. In other words, his 2005-06 seasons are probably representative of realistic offensive expectations, with some decline in playing time.

The real question is the state of the market. All signs point to an overheated market for a few years. On a pure value for potential free agent dollar, the Posada contract seems within the norms that are likely to be set by this market, leaving aside questions of loyalty.

Posted by: Mike Green at November 13, 2007 10:57 AM

They overpaid, but they had to. There were no better options, and his value is highest in Yankee Stadium with the short RF porch.

If they rotate him at 1B, he'll hold up and be productive. They've gotten nothing out of that position for three years anyway...

Doesn't Giambi come off the books after 2008? After that give Jorge half his games at first , DH Matsui, Damon in LF.

Not a bad deal. for the Yankees. If the Mets had given him this deal it would be terrible.

Posted by: Mr. Furious at November 13, 2007 11:05 AM

I wanted to agree with something Mike Plugh said. The Yankees have NO catcher in their system at the moment. If, for example, you would have felt comfortable offering either Yorvit Torrealba or Paul LoDuca a free agent contract, then I can see why you would be unhappy with the move the Yankees made.

But why on God's earth would you sign one of them to a two or three year deal when you can have Posada for one or two more years, albeit for more money (it's the Yankees, who cares).

Loyalty played in to this signing, no question about it. But when you look at the alternatives, I think the Yankees did what they had to do.

I would say the catching problem doesn't lie with Yankees, who now have a few years to prepare for a post-Posada era, but look at Boston's situation? Does anyone expect Varitek to last much longer? Who knows if prospect George Kottaras will be able to slide right in to the everyday role once Varitek hangs up the shin-guards.

Posted by: JMM at November 13, 2007 11:15 AM

The Yankees overpaid for a catcher that will be 40 years old when this deal is over. But then again,the way things are going for the Yanks they are desperate and had to make a deal, if not for the good of the team to at least appease the fans. Posada is not a very good catcher in terms of handling pitchers and it will be interesting to see how he holds up physically for that period of time in the toughest position in baseball.

Posted by: emains at November 13, 2007 01:53 PM

I think Mr. Furious has it just right -- in some sense the Yankees 'overpaid', but there was no catcher available who is even close to Posada's expected value over the next four years, and the Yankees have lots and lots of money. So criticizing Cashman for overpaying is like criticizing a billionaire for paying $20,000,000 for a house that is only twice as good as one costing $5,000,000.

Also: it isn't true that the Yankees have no catchers in their system. They have three. But all of them are very young. In four years, it's quite possible that Jesus Monteiro will be prepared to move into a full time position. Then Posada will be an extremely expensive back-up catcher (but likely the best back-up catcher in the game!).

Posted by: James at November 13, 2007 02:29 PM

Lack of other options made this necessary, however, I think the Yankees will regret the third and fourth years of the deal.

Posada will probably end up splitting time three ways between catcher, 1B and DH with lines something like .280/.370/.450 those last couple years... at offense-oriented positions.

Bad deal; glad to see it. Now sign Rivera for four more years.

Posted by: SoxSweepAgain at November 13, 2007 09:08 PM

If Posada has a line of .280, .370, .450 in the last 2 years at 1B i wont complain...that would put him about on par with Youk (2007), Andy LaRoche with better OBP, Delgado with better OBP and BA

With what the Yankees have had at 1B lately...i can take Posada at .275-.280, .370 OBP, 15-20 HR

Posted by: Robert at November 14, 2007 01:20 AM

So criticizing Cashman for overpaying is like criticizing a billionaire for paying $20,000,000 for a house that is only twice as good as one costing $5,000,000.

Not really - the problem is that they overpay then they can't move the players - who wants Johnny Damon, Mussina, Abreau, Matsui or Giambi at anywhere near what they're being paid? So then NYY has to eat half their salary. They give them all no trades and more than they're worth in years - then they have no flexibility

Last year Posada had 13 PB and threw out 23% of base stealers who stole over 100 times on him. That's with Pettite and Mussina in the rotation. It's hard to see those numbers getting much better.

The best thing Hinske did all year was crushing Posada in September

Posted by: Bandit at November 14, 2007 01:26 PM
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