November 15, 2007
Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders, 2007
The following table presents probabilistic model of range data for team rightfielders:
Team Rightfielders PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only
Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
Phillies | 4505 | 363 | 328.75 | 0.081 | 0.073 | 110.42 |
Rangers | 4518 | 341 | 317.30 | 0.075 | 0.070 | 107.47 |
Yankees | 4511 | 341 | 328.36 | 0.076 | 0.073 | 103.85 |
Royals | 4528 | 410 | 397.12 | 0.091 | 0.088 | 103.24 |
Nationals | 4591 | 392 | 381.19 | 0.085 | 0.083 | 102.84 |
Indians | 4548 | 313 | 304.41 | 0.069 | 0.067 | 102.82 |
Marlins | 4491 | 379 | 368.66 | 0.084 | 0.082 | 102.81 |
Astros | 4530 | 360 | 354.55 | 0.079 | 0.078 | 101.54 |
Brewers | 4392 | 393 | 387.42 | 0.089 | 0.088 | 101.44 |
Diamondbacks | 4351 | 336 | 331.82 | 0.077 | 0.076 | 101.26 |
Athletics | 4499 | 330 | 327.02 | 0.073 | 0.073 | 100.91 |
Blue Jays | 4349 | 281 | 278.50 | 0.065 | 0.064 | 100.90 |
Cubs | 4177 | 303 | 301.51 | 0.073 | 0.072 | 100.50 |
Angels | 4325 | 311 | 310.00 | 0.072 | 0.072 | 100.32 |
Padres | 4476 | 331 | 331.59 | 0.074 | 0.074 | 99.82 |
Twins | 4384 | 306 | 307.17 | 0.070 | 0.070 | 99.62 |
Tigers | 4486 | 318 | 319.88 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 99.41 |
Red Sox | 4226 | 287 | 289.46 | 0.068 | 0.068 | 99.15 |
Mets | 4362 | 340 | 343.80 | 0.078 | 0.079 | 98.89 |
Orioles | 4403 | 314 | 317.86 | 0.071 | 0.072 | 98.79 |
Braves | 4404 | 331 | 336.45 | 0.075 | 0.076 | 98.38 |
Devil Rays | 4378 | 309 | 314.27 | 0.071 | 0.072 | 98.32 |
Reds | 4533 | 377 | 384.09 | 0.083 | 0.085 | 98.15 |
Pirates | 4608 | 312 | 319.06 | 0.068 | 0.069 | 97.79 |
Cardinals | 4587 | 316 | 323.36 | 0.069 | 0.070 | 97.72 |
White Sox | 4545 | 345 | 354.49 | 0.076 | 0.078 | 97.32 |
Dodgers | 4310 | 317 | 326.76 | 0.074 | 0.076 | 97.01 |
Giants | 4467 | 338 | 349.14 | 0.076 | 0.078 | 96.81 |
Mariners | 4535 | 305 | 323.57 | 0.067 | 0.071 | 94.26 |
Rockies | 4599 | 296 | 316.91 | 0.064 | 0.069 | 93.40 |
As shown below, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino made quite the dynamic duo in rightfield for the Phillies. My uncle Anthony will not be happy with this list, however. He's a Yankees season ticket holder and he loves to tell me how much Bobby Abreu is afraid of the wall. It looks like he's still getting to lots of balls.
Individual Rightfielder PMR, 2007, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2007 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Ratio |
Jayson Werth | 1389 | 109 | 95.35 | 0.078 | 0.069 | 114.32 |
Shane Victorino | 2837 | 229 | 210.62 | 0.081 | 0.074 | 108.72 |
Nick Swisher | 1289 | 109 | 101.65 | 0.085 | 0.079 | 107.23 |
Carlos Quentin | 1718 | 138 | 129.11 | 0.080 | 0.075 | 106.89 |
Franklin Gutierrez | 1757 | 136 | 128.55 | 0.077 | 0.073 | 105.79 |
Nelson Cruz | 1922 | 148 | 141.26 | 0.077 | 0.073 | 104.77 |
Luke Scott | 2560 | 198 | 190.34 | 0.077 | 0.074 | 104.02 |
Bobby Abreu | 4148 | 313 | 302.45 | 0.075 | 0.073 | 103.49 |
Corey Hart | 2641 | 253 | 246.33 | 0.096 | 0.093 | 102.71 |
Austin Kearns | 4356 | 375 | 366.16 | 0.086 | 0.084 | 102.41 |
Mark Teahen | 3663 | 318 | 311.33 | 0.087 | 0.085 | 102.14 |
Alex Rios | 3730 | 243 | 240.17 | 0.065 | 0.064 | 101.18 |
Travis Buck | 1561 | 110 | 109.03 | 0.070 | 0.070 | 100.89 |
Jeremy Hermida | 3035 | 247 | 245.88 | 0.081 | 0.081 | 100.46 |
Randy Winn | 2686 | 209 | 208.12 | 0.078 | 0.077 | 100.42 |
Delmon Young | 3463 | 252 | 251.16 | 0.073 | 0.073 | 100.33 |
Trot Nixon | 2140 | 129 | 129.17 | 0.060 | 0.060 | 99.86 |
Michael Cuddyer | 3749 | 256 | 256.95 | 0.068 | 0.069 | 99.63 |
Nick Markakis | 4279 | 303 | 306.74 | 0.071 | 0.072 | 98.78 |
Magglio Ordonez | 3835 | 261 | 264.54 | 0.068 | 0.069 | 98.66 |
Jeff Francoeur | 4356 | 328 | 333.45 | 0.075 | 0.077 | 98.37 |
Jermaine Dye | 3682 | 284 | 289.80 | 0.077 | 0.079 | 98.00 |
Shawn Green | 2771 | 203 | 207.55 | 0.073 | 0.075 | 97.81 |
Vladimir Guerrero | 2819 | 208 | 213.12 | 0.074 | 0.076 | 97.60 |
Matt Kemp | 1851 | 129 | 132.50 | 0.070 | 0.072 | 97.36 |
Brian Giles | 3199 | 216 | 223.54 | 0.068 | 0.070 | 96.63 |
J.D. Drew | 3128 | 212 | 219.98 | 0.068 | 0.070 | 96.37 |
Ken Griffey Jr. | 3649 | 291 | 302.61 | 0.080 | 0.083 | 96.16 |
Andre Ethier | 2315 | 177 | 184.39 | 0.076 | 0.080 | 95.99 |
Xavier Nady | 2390 | 162 | 168.97 | 0.068 | 0.071 | 95.88 |
Jose Guillen | 4063 | 268 | 284.73 | 0.066 | 0.070 | 94.13 |
Juan Encarnacion | 1983 | 125 | 132.90 | 0.063 | 0.067 | 94.06 |
Jack Cust | 1205 | 79 | 84.93 | 0.066 | 0.070 | 93.01 |
Brad Hawpe | 3851 | 247 | 267.07 | 0.064 | 0.069 | 92.48 |
Cliff Floyd | 1185 | 69 | 78.30 | 0.058 | 0.066 | 88.12 |
Mark Teahen did a much better job of adjusting to rightfield than Ken Griffey, Jr. Of course, Junior is old and slow, and with all the injuries might be better off as a DH in AL at this point.
Interesting that Nady was very below average, whereas the Pirates were slightly below. Does that mean that Doumit was above average in RF? Or were Pearce/McLouth/Bautista just totally awesome?
Re: your Uncle Anthony's ragging on Abreu...
The two most important factors in outfield range are speed and the ability to accurately track fly balls. Willingness to crash into a wall is way down the list.
There's also a big downside to fearlessness: the chance of a severe injury. Aaron Rowand's faceplant made everyone's highlight reel, but what was really more valuable -- that one catch, or the loss of Rowand's services while he recuperated from injury? Fred Lynn and Kirk Gibson were absolutely fearless in the outfield, and probably shortened their careers in the process. In 1962, Al Kaline was having a great season when he dived for a short flyball and broke his collarbone. He was out of the lineup for almost a month.
I'm not saying there are no grounds to criticize Bobby Abreu. I'm just saying there are two sides to fearlessness in baseball, and something to be said for self-preservation in a sport where you play every single day.
Of course your uncle Anthony won't be happy, he's a Yankees season ticket holder.
Any chance you'd post Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel's numbers, or would the sample sizes be too small for it to be useful?
You're not going to get a lot of Phillies phans to agree that Werth was better than Victorino in RF. Maybe Werth gets better jumps or takes better routes; I'm not a great judge of those things. But Victorino is a lot faster and seemed more reliable actually making the play, and has a stronger arm.
The sample for Werth is small. That could easily lead to a bit of luck taking over.
For what it's Werth, Jayson came up as a catcher.
I've only seen Abreu in one game and I have to say that his instincts seemed impeccable. He seemed to set up right when the ball hit the bat and as I recall handled a chance or two off the wall (in Camden Yards pretty well.)
Of course the other right fielder I saw that day seemed to display similar instincts. But Nick Markakis is much further down the list.
I guess I wouldn't make a good scout.
I'm still shocked at how a guy with Trot Nixon's build can be an average outfielder. He looks like every guy sitting on his couch watching football with a bowl of nachos in one hand and an empty six-pack by his feet. Remarkable.
FWIW, Shane Victorino rated as the best RF, according to the Fans. (Werth was a bit over average.)
It will be a shock if he doesn't play CF if Rowand is gone.
Even better than Victorino's range is Victorino's arm. If you had a ratio for that, it might approach 500.
As always David, thanks so much for the PMR work, it's good stuff.