December 12, 2007
Cubs Land Fukudome
Kosuke Fukudome agreed to a four-year contract with the Cubs last night for at least $12 million a season. It looks like a pretty good signing. Here's the best set of Japanese stats I've found on Kosuke. He's posted in his career a .397 OBA and a .543 slugging percentage. Hideki Matsui was a .413/.592 when he came to the US, but he was also two years younger. He's posted a .371 OBA with a .485 slugging percentage in his career. Ichiro was at .421/.522 in Japan, .379/.437 in the US. So it seems to me Fukudome should be around .360/.450. Think Torii Hunter with slightly less power but a much better OBA. If Torii is worth $18 million a year, then $12 for Fukudome is a bargain.
So, Matsui dropped 149pts of OPS.
Ichiro, 127
As I was saying in the other thread, expect AT LEAST a 120 point drop in OPS and you're looking at an 820 OPS (probably even less!) player...A Matt Murton that plays great defense and probably runs the bases better. I don't know what his splits are, so I'm not assuming anything. Fukudome will be SLIGHTLY better than Murton.
Fukudome = $12 million, Murton less than $1 million. I really think that money could've been spent better elsewhere. (Well, maybe not this year as there aren't any great free agents)
Only time will tell if he follows Kaz Matsui's path of a 30 hr hitter in Japan to a slap hitter in the states.
Think - comparison between this guy and Torii Hunter isn't valid unless this guy is a legit Gold Glove CF.
Enough about Murton. He can not start in RF for any contending club with a decent budget. Guys that can kill lefties but not much else are a dime a dozen, and that's basically Murton. If you watch him play, you see he just lacks baseball instincts (why Lou hates him). Plus, he had a lot of ABs against LHers last year - adjust for more RHers (80/20) as an everyday player and he's a 765 ops guy.
Actually Murton is a career 771 OPS vs RH's in just under 600 at bats. if that isn't good enough to be an everyday RFer, then I guess that means Jermaine Dye (761), Michael Cuddyer (759), Jeff Francoeur (747), Jose Guillen (741), Randy Winn (736), Shane Victorino (733), Austin Kearns (728) and Delmon Young (714) aren't either.
PECOTA is looking at next year, I was looking at a longer term trend.
