I think a lot of people are forgetting how good Randy Johnson was last year before he got hurt. His K's and BB's were spectacular; I wouldn't be shocked if he posted a better 2008 than Haren (though Haren is moving from the AL to the NL, so who knows).

To me, Liriano is a huge question mark in all of this. Forget IP projections - do we have any clue how good he'll be? Can he still throw a fastball? I mean, there's almost no season this guy could have that would surprise anyone. He could be Johan-esque, he could be Ponson-esque. He could be Jamie Moyer and not top 85 in a given start.

I'm curious, why did you decide to base your analysis on ERA? Why not PERA, FRA, DERA or QERA, all of which are arguably superior and would give a more context-independent evaluation? That said, I agree with your assessment.

I based it on projected earned runs allowed vs. a league norm.

I agree you need to factor in ballpark, but it looks like your factoring it in the equation too much. The top hitting parks have the top pitchers, just looks like the correlation is too high. I'm a Reds fan but i wouldn't have Arroyo and Harang as the 2nd best combo in baseball.

Also he has to use ERA since that's the only thing he has to work with. It's projected ERA, not ERA from last year

not that im a padres fan, but how on earth can peavy and young be so low on that list? are you really saying that francis/cook, arroyo/harang, even zambrano/lilly are better? I just don't see it

"but how on earth can peavy and young be so low on that list"

As I responded in the SN comments, much of it has to do with ballpark as well as how many innings a pitcher throws. Young, can hardly be expected to hit 200 innings leaving some 50 innings between him and the Diamondbacks #2 (Haren). While the injuries hurt, so too does the fact that Young rarely gets beyond the 6th inning in a start, meaning there are more high leverage situations for the bullpen to throw in.

Young and Peavy are excellent, among the tops, but I would take Haren/Webb, Sabathia/Carmona, Santana/Liriano over that duo. One could raise the argument of Kazmir/Shields if the two continue to progress.

But, thats why they play the game.