December 21, 2007
Dontrelle Dollars
The Detroit Tigers signed Dontrelle Willis to a three-year deal, buying out his first year of free agency. They get him for a low price of $29 million for the term of the contract, and now control their three young pitchers through 2010. They're also looking to sign Miguel Cabrera to a long term deal.
Exactly the right move. Willis is a bit of a question mark. If he's good for Detroit, it's money well spent. If not, the contract is not a long term burden. I suspect the money and length of contract for Cabrera will be much higher.
Hmmm... not so sure that 29 million for 3 years is cheap for a guy who is coming off of a 5.19 ERA and moving to the American League.
Sure - 29 million is very cheap if you get 2003 or 2005 Willis. But are you sure that you are getting that?
Won 1 of 19 starts from 5/29 until 9/14. In 5 of those starts he didn't go more than 4 innings. From 7/6 thru 9/14 he gave up 5 or more runs in 8 of 14 starts. Pretty expensive for a guy throwing bp.
Considering the market price of mid-tier free-agent starting pitchers, this deal seems like a good bet. If he bounces back even a little bit from last year's performance (making him an average number 3 or 4 starter), which is a decent bet considering the better defense will probably wash out the league effect, 10m/year seems right on the money. There's also the chance he settles back to his '06 rates (or even '05 if you're really optimistic) and the tigers get a bargain.
