Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
December 23, 2007
Keep or Trade

John Harper in the New York Daily News wonders if the Mets reluctance to trade Jose Reyes for Johan Santana is the right move:

Baseball people say there is no doubt the Mets could still land Santana by including Jose Reyes in a trade offer, but GM Omar Minaya has repeatedly said he won't do so.

He'd better be right on this stance, or it could turn out to be something of a defining moment for Minaya. There are still plenty of people in baseball who think Reyes will blossom into a superstar, but there are also some who admit Reyes' second-half swoon this year raised doubts about whether he'll fulfill his potential.

Consider Reyes' career averages. Through 5/31/2006, Jose posted averages of .273/.305/.397 in 1422 AB. Over the next seven months, 6/1/2006 through 6/30/2007 those number jumped to .323/.387/.498 in 737 at bats. Over the last three months of 2007, however, they fell back down to .248/.313/.393 in 359 at bats.

The question the Mets need to answer is what's the aberration. Was it the seven stellar months of hitting? Or was that Reyes maturing to his real skill level, and the last three months were just bad luck? I'm wary that Reyes is a superstar. His career number right now are .284/.330/.426, good for a middle infielder but nothing outstanding. If you can get Johan Santana for that, why not?


Posted by David Pinto at 09:20 AM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)
Comments

At worst, Reyes is a dynamic leadoff hitter who also happens to play Gold Glove caliber shortstop. Oh, and he's only 24, signed for another 4 years at $29m.
Including him in any deal would be a HUGE mistake - he is the face of the team for the next 10 years, and you just don't deal that away.

Posted by: tarheelcoach at December 23, 2007 12:02 PM

What and Santana is just a pretty face? Stud starters are hard to come by, but you can find a solid shortstop anywhere.

Posted by: glenn at December 23, 2007 02:01 PM

I think the point tarheelcoach is trying to make is that Reyes is just coming into his prime, while Johan is currently in the midst of his. It doesn't make sense to include Reyes in a deal when in theory he should be entering his peak years. As great as Johan is, the Mets would be getting him on the back end of his career.

I think the last 3 months were the aberration. As a Mets fan I admit I may be biased, but I have also seen the kid almost every day. He looked exhausted in the second half. Personally, I think he ran too much last year and wore himself out. He looked unstoppable in the early part of the year and slowly declined as the season progressed. While the SB is definitely a great weapon of his, roping doubles and triples is another one. He looked so good at the plate early on, taking pitches and crushing the pitches in his zone. Later on he wasn't squaring the ball up and was swinging at pitches out of his zone.

Anyway, my two cents.

Posted by: Keith at December 23, 2007 04:55 PM

Oh yeah, one more thing. Reyes is also the Mets leadoff hitter. Not many players out there who could replace Reyes at SS and in the lineup.

Posted by: Keith at December 23, 2007 04:57 PM

tarheelcoach is right. You need to go to Shea and hear the Jose song rock through the park -- it's remarkable how many people know it even before it flashes up on the board. Whether or not this is the right move, Jose and Wright are the two faces of the team at this moment.

Posted by: BigDaddyJ at December 23, 2007 11:19 PM

One have to realize that

a. the great pitching always beats great offense thing is vastly overrated espically in the regular season. (and even in the playoffs. seriously how many WS did Atlanta won again with 3 cy young in their prime together for 10 + year and you can be sure Santana won't catch Maddux win wise and will be quiet lucky to catch Glavine.)

b. there's some seriously salary at stake here. the money Santana is set to make will easily double that of Reyes. that's a lot of money that could go to fill other holes and /or develop the farm.

In the end, trading Jose Reyes for anyone in baseball other than maybe Albert Pujols strait up is simply dumb.

Posted by: RollingWave at December 24, 2007 05:00 AM

without hesitation get santana.reyes is a bum .. a baby a goof off. do it if thats what the twins want ,. do it fast. cant win with reyes .he fell asleepmin sept. you can get a shortstop. i c think maniac manaya is a fool ..does he think oa lousy pitcher from the phillies is going to help. mets management you cheap garbage. if you can get santana grab him.. i doubt that will happen mets 4th place next season.lousy manager and lousy g.m.

Posted by: lew at December 26, 2007 02:53 PM

without hesitation get santana.reyes is a bum .. a baby a goof off. do it if thats what the twins want ,. do it fast. cant win with reyes .he fell asleepmin sept. you can get a shortstop. i c think maniac manaya is a fool ..does he think oa lousy pitcher from the phillies is going to help. mets management you cheap garbage. if you can get santana grab him.. i doubt that will happen mets 4th place next season.lousy manager and lousy g.m.

Posted by: lew at December 26, 2007 02:53 PM

In what sense of the word is Reyes a superstar? Poor OBA - really hurt them last year - and they've won nothing with him. He may have a ton of potential but he's done nothing to qualify as a superstar.

Posted by: Bandit at December 27, 2007 07:41 AM
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