Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
December 23, 2007
No Improvement

Sabernomics points to an article in Saturday's New York Times in which two professor of statistics examine the data surrounding the players in the Mitchell report. On average, they find no gain from the alleged use of PEDs:

It is possible (but not addressable by these data) that one effect of drugs is to help players compensate for decline as they age, and thus to extend their careers. But there is no evidence in these data for performance enhancement above previous levels.

More study of this question would be valuable. But the results here are intriguing, and could send a simple message to America's youth who aspire to fame and fortune as professional baseball players: Don't use these drugs -- not only can they increase the risk of serious illness, they also don't enhance your performance on the diamond.

That might, in the end, be a more effective message than one based solely on ethical and moral injunctions.

If MLB had secured the cooperation of players from the start, these statisticians would have a better data set to work with. Most of the players in the Mitchell report were veterans trying to recover from injuries or hang on. There didn't seem to be many young players using steroids to get bigger and make the majors. That might make a huge impact on the results here. It's also not clear that they separated steroid use from HGH use, which I would think would make a huge difference.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:14 AM | Cheating | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Not very convincing to me. As they allude to in the article, they really need to account for decline with age. While speculative, it would not be hard to build a conservative model that projects each players numbers with an average decline and then to compare those projections with the real data. You might expect a few guys to beat father time, but if a significant amount of the expected users are beating the curve it suggests a true performance enhancement.

Posted by: Luke at December 23, 2007 12:00 PM

the young players (minor leaguers) are subject to intense testing and cannot afford the designer drugs.

by the way, did anyone see the articles on professors and Wall Street dealmakers loading up on PED's?

'BRAINIACS' JUICING UP A STORM
By SUSANNAH CAHALAN, Post Wire Services

http://www.nypost.com/seven/12232007/news/regionalnews/brainiacs_juicing_up_a_storm_251726.htm

December 23, 2007 -- It's not just big-time athletes popping pills to pump up.

An increasing number of New Yorkers, from Wall Street execs to pro poker players, are taking enhancement drugs to boost the most important muscle of all - the brain - and gain an edge at work.

The brain boosters of choice are prescription stimulants, mainly the Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder drugs Adderall and Ritalin and the narcolepsy pill Provigil.

One newcomer to the list is the beta-blocking heart drug Inderal, which can curb anxiety.

"This is a complete parallel to baseball," said Alden Cass, president of Catalyst Strategies Group, referring to Major League Baseball's steroid scandal.

Cass, whose firm coaches high-profile professionals, said many Wall Street executives and even doctors and lawyers - "under the spotlight every day and expected to play above and beyond everyone else" - abuse brain-boosting stimulants

--

http://chronicle.com/news/article/3673/brain-boosting-drugs-hit-the-faculty-lounge
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v450/n7173/full/4501157a.html

December 20, 2007
Brain-Boosting Drugs Hit the Faculty Lounge
Some university faculty members have started popping "smart" pills to enhance their mental energy and ability to work long hours.

In a commentary published in Nature on Thursday, Barbara Sahakian and Sharon Morein-Zamir of the University of Cambridge revealed an informal survey showing that a handful of colleagues, all involved in studying drugs that help people perform better mentally, would take the drugs.

The notion raises hackles in some parts of academe. "It smells to me a lot like taking steroids for physical prowess," said Barbara Prudhomme White, an associate professor of occupational therapy at the University of New Hampshire, who has studied the abuse of Ritalin by college students. With the recent revelations about the use of performance-enhancing drugs in professional baseball, she sees parallels between striving athletes and faculty members.

Posted by: rmt at December 23, 2007 02:44 PM

I always figured that Clemens roided up in 1997.

Posted by: gdfdfg at December 23, 2007 11:02 PM

You're right, they should definitely separate the two types of PED's, steroids vs HGH. They may have varying effectiveness, work in different ways, etc. Or one may not work at all, masking the effect of the other.

In any case, this study was absolutely horrible. There were no controls at all, no age-related expectations to compare to, etc. They didn't control for how long players were supposedly on the drugs (I mean, Pettitte said he took it a couple times to recover from injury - these authors likely used 2003-2007 as his "on drugs" years for comparison).

The Babe Ruth part was laughable. He was a pitcher for his first 6 years, which means his remaining 16 years would carry the bulk of his PA's and this the last 6 of those would represent a much higher percentage of his PAs than Barry's last 6 years. Look at their PA/HR rates. Did Babe Ruth's spike when he turned 36? (Hint: no).

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