The Detroit Free Press notes the Tigers are trying to sign Miguel Cabrera to a long-term contract. The article puts a lower limit on Miguel at $20 million per year. I think that's too low. Not only is Miguel already one of the best hitters in the game, but if he waits for free agency, he'll hit it at the start of his peak period, just like Alex Rodriguez did. Miguel on the market in two years time would likely fetch close to $30 million a season. Let's say he signs a six year deal for $30 million per, and earns $25 million in arbitration for 2008 and 2009. That's $205 million over the next eight seasons.

The risk in waiting, of course, is that Miguel gets hurt. So how much is that risk worth to him. If they Tigers offer six years, $20 million per year, I think he'll take that. He makes $120 million, and can become a free agent at age 30, where he'll likely get a six-year deal in excess of $30 million a season. He might actually end up making close to the same money by signing now for $20 million a year! Both the team and the player make out well at that price.