January 23, 2008
Team Offenses, Colorado Rockies
We continue to look at team offenses for 2008 with the Colorado Rockies.
Matt Holliday
Photo: Icon SMI
In 2007, the Rockies scored 5.28 runs per game.
I plugged in a likely lineup to the Lineup Analysis Tool, using the Marcel the Monkey predictions from Tom Tango. The lineups rate as follows:
- Best: 5.34 runs per game
- Given: 5.10 runs per game
- Worst: 4.71 runs per game
That's a pretty big spread, due to the ability to make a very bad lineup with the pitcher's position and a low OBA catcher. I'm a bit surprised the given lineup does so poorly compared to the best lineup. I would guess stacking the best players at getting on base back to back would generate a lot of runs no matter where they go in the order.
More importantly, the Marcels pull a number of hitters on this team back to their norms. Hawpe, Helton, Holliday and Taveras are all predicted to fall off vs. their 2007 performance. Still, the H-men are predicted to put up great seasons, and if the Rockies can get a .346 OBA out of Taveras they'll be happy. And 5.01 runs per game would still have been good for second place in the NL in 2007. Scoring runs shouldn't be the Rockies problem in 2008.
Do you park adjust the Marcel stats before plugging them in to the lineup tool? Perhaps adjust them to a neutral park for all teams?
vr, Xei
Author: Dodger Sims
