January 29, 2008
Three Day Window
Baseball Digest Daily alerts us that the Mets and Twins agreed to a deal for Johan Santana:
The deal is pending the Mets and Santana reaching agreement on a six- or seven-year contract extension and that Santana passes a physical; they have been granted a 48 to-72-hour window to do so. Santana has a no-trade clause that he will waive if agreement is reached on a contract extension.
The Mets paid a high price in prospects to land Santana, agreeing to send the Twins outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.
There's still time for the deal to go south, but it looks like the Yankees and Red Sox successfully kept the other from acquiring the big ace.
Shea should be a great park for Johan. Imagine the best parts of Jerry Koosman and Sid Fernandez combined.
Posted by David Pinto at
04:27 PM
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As stated so many times before... this certainly makes the Mets the favorites to win the NL Pennant.
As a Yankees fan, I'm glad he 1) Isn't on the Yankees (too pricey) 2) Isn't on the Red Sox (hand them the '08 World Series...) and 3) Is in the NL, where he can't hurt the Yankees until the World Series.
Question though, where do you expect Gomez to end up after Spring Training: on the Twins ML Roster or in the minors? I haven't been following any prospects outside of the AL East.
waaaaaaah............hooooo!!!!!!! However, remember Frank Viola ? Lets hope this works out just a tad bit better this time.
Needless to say, as Mets fan, I'm quite pumped (and as a Mets and Giants fan, I'm really enjoying this week). Still a little worried about the hammering out a deal, but I think the Mets will get it done. Now we have a pitching staff where Pedro Martinez is the number TWO. Not bad. Not bad at all.
On a side note, I'll be curious to see what happens to Sabbathia. With Johan and Bedard getting traded (seemingly), and Zambrano locked up by the Cubs, the would be bumper crop of free agent pitchers in the next couple of years is quickly drying up.
The Mets' pitching is still a mess. I wouldn't give them the pennant just yet. They'll be good to be sure...and CitiField's effects on pitching is still an unknown.
hey Kent.....who has a better number 4 starter better than Oliver Perez in the NL? Maine as the three...Kent c'mon...lets give em more credit. Did anyone get a "brick" at the new CitiField?
Mets play at Shea this season.
The Mets' pitching is still a mess
Umm, yeah. The Mets 3 and 4 pitchers won a combined 30 games last year, and their number two is some feller named Pedro Martinez. What a mess.
The Mets 3 and 4 pitchers won a combined 30 games last year,
Umm, yeah. Because the number of wins tells us a lot about the quality of a pitcher.
BTW... I would bet money that Oliver Perez does not repeat the success he had this past season.
Oliver Perez: 177 IP, 174 K, 1.311 WHIP, 3.56 ERA, 120 ERA+.
Maine: 190 IP, 161 K, 1.272 WHIP, 3.91 ERA, 109 ERA+.
Umm, yeah, so they're actually pretty good outside just the wins category.
Perez may not equal his 15-10, 3.56 ERA performance from last year, but that doesn't mean he won't be a quality 4th starter. There's no reason to believe he'll return to being the horribly mis-coached mess he was with the Pirates.
Sylvan- Exactly. Perez is definitely unpredictable, but for a number four starter, it's tough to do better, especially in the NL. And I think Maine should put up similar numbers as he did last year, and probably a little better.
Look, the Mets have a front four who will all strikeout roughly a batter per inning, two of whom will probably pitch to 3.00 ERAs or better, and two more who will be in the 3.5-4.00 range. I'd really like to know which NL staff is as complete as the Mets' staff.
Perez issues are often mental, focus related. I'd not be shock to see them dissipate during his walk year. Funny how that happens, no?
If Sanchez comes back healthy the pen looks solid as well.
I know that they play at Shea this season. I'm referring to his pitching abilities over the course of his (pending) new contract. We don't know if CitiField will be pro-pitcher, neutral, or pro-hitter until they get they and play a few seasons. So, it's too quick to say that he'll dominate in the new park. I like and greatly respect Santana and think that this is a pretty good deal for the Mets. But, they better win now or have a hell of a lot of free agent dollars.
Oh, and a cursory look tells me that the D-Backs, Brewers, Padres, Cardinals, and even Giants have 4th starters as good or better than Perez. Not saying that those teams are going to play better than the Mets (especially the Giants), but their "4th starters" are Perez equals.
C.C. Sabathia is going to make out like a bandit. He actually would have been better off with the Red Sox or Yankees getting Johan, though. Then the Mets would have entered the offseason with no ace, in fact they potentially would have had only one SP under contract. That, and a new ballpark, would have meant a huge offer to Sabathia.
My money is on him signing an extension before the season, though.
and a cursory look tells me that the D-Backs, Brewers, Padres, Cardinals, and even Giants have 4th starters as good or better than Perez.
No, possibly, no, no, and no.
2007 stats:
Perez: see above
Doug Davis: 192.7 IP, 144 K, 1.588 WHIP, 111 ERA+
Noah Lowry: 156 IP, 87 K, 1.551 WHIP, 113 ERA+
Yovano Gallardo: 110 IP, 101 K, 1.269 WHIP, 122 ERA+ (he could be good)
Randy Wolf: 102.7 IP, 94 K, 1.451 WHIP, 97 ERA+
And I don't even know who the Cards' fourth starter is. I doubt they do.
So, out of that bunch, perhaps Gallardo will equal or better Perez. Davis could pitch well, but I don't think much of him. Lowry is weak, and Wolf is questionable at best.
Metrodome Park Effects:
2007 - 96
2006 - 98
2005 - 102
2004 - 103
2003 - 101
2002 - 100
A slight pitcher's park over the past couple of years, perhaps, but more or less average.
Shea Park Factors:
2007 - 97
2006 - 98
2005 - 98
2004 - 99
2003 - 97
2002 - 97
A better pitcher's park.
Combine in the fact that the Twins are in the AL, and the Mets are in the NL, and Santana is likely to get a healthy boost in effectiveness from the trade. Even a hitter's park like Citizen's wouldn't likely offset the move between leagues.
I am very excited to hear the details about this Santana acquisition by the Mets.
I do believe that this is the beginning of the Era of the greatest pitcher in the game of baseball. Why? Number one, he's Johan Santana. #2, he's moving on to the NL. #3 New York will always be a competitive team, under the ownership and guidance of Omar Minaya.
Most of all, I love the deal because I am a Blue Jays fan.
I am very excited to hear the details about this Santana acquisition by the Mets.
I do believe that this is the beginning of the Era of the greatest pitcher in the game of baseball. Why? Number one, he's Johan Santana. #2, he's moving on to the NL. #3 New York will always be a competitive team, under the ownership and guidance of Omar Minaya.
Most of all, I love the deal because I am a Blue Jays fan.
I'm glad he went to the NL and Lester and Ellsbury didn't go to Minn.
We'll see won't we Paul. Last year's stats were last year. What I wrote was that those teams have 4th starters who're as good as or better than Perez. Not a radical notion and...we'll see. A great pick-up by the Mets to be sure, but don't christen the other Mets pitchers (outside of Santana) as better than they are either. This is a very solid team and more solid still in the NL, but a lot has to be played before they win the World Series.
Last year's stats were last year. What I wrote was that those teams have 4th starters who're as good as or better than Perez. Not a radical notion and...we'll see.
Yes, and I showed you through statistical analysis - kind of a bing thing in these parts - that your assertion is flat out false. None of those team's fourth starters but one can honestly said to be quite as good as Perez. I'm not overrating anybody, just relaying the facts. The notion that the Mets' pitching is somehow a disaster after Santana is ludicrous. But, as you said, we shall see.
Yeah, we'll see. The Mets just got the best pitcher in baseball and I give them credit for that. (Imagine Kazmir on the roster to boot?) I look forward to watching him pitch in the NL, but I don't believe that they just became the deepest or best staff in the NL. I guess we can have this discussion next season. There's certainly going to be some good pitchers to watch.