Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 20, 2008
Explosive Situation

Voros McCracken sums up the reaction to the Reds sending down Jay Bruce.

Corey Patterson garnered 3100 at bats in his major league career with an OBA below .300. We know what Corey can do and it's not good. Bruce might turn out to be a bust, but his minor league record indicates there's a good chance he'll be great, and I'd say there's an extremely high probability he'll be better than Corey Patterson. If he posts a .750 OPS he'll be better than Patterson! I wonder if this is the super two move, designed to delay Bruce's free agency by one year. Otherwise, the Reds could lose him after his age 26 season, before they reaped the peak of his career.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:11 PM | Spring Training | TrackBack (0)
Comments

I suspect the fine hand of Dusty Baker at work here. He loves to have a whippet like Patterson at the top of the lineup, and he's never had a good track record with young players.

Posted by: jvwalt at March 20, 2008 09:24 PM

Dusty Baker thinks that he needs a good defensive CFer because Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr. are the corner outfielders. I don't think that Bruce is a true centerfielder. I don't have any personal interest in the whole thing, but that rationale makes some sense to me. Griffey causes some roster problems for the Reds, similar to Biggio in Houston last year. The Reds probably don't want to trade Griffey before hits homer no. 600, but his defense is very bad, and combined with Dunn in LF, the Reds probably need a good CFer to keep the defense from caving in.

Posted by: C Johnson at March 20, 2008 10:13 PM

Of course this is the super two move, and I can't believe that Reds fans are either surprised or upset by it, since it's the ONLY smart move. The Reds aren't going to compete this season, and even if they were, Jay Bruce doesn't project to offer much more this year than Corey Patterson, however bad he is. In the future, of course. But for the month of April? And especially given that CF needs to be a speedy defensive whiz given the statuesque demeanor of Dunn in LF and Griffey Jr. in RF?

Nah, I can find a lot of things to hate Dusty Baker for (assuming this is his doing in the first place), but this one isn't it. Obviously Corey Patterson isn't the solution of the future, but it's worth an extra year of Bruce to send him down for a couple of weeks.

Posted by: Jeff B. at March 20, 2008 10:22 PM

This is done to keep Bruce in a Reds uniform longer. They're a small market team and they don't have a win now mentality. C'mon, don't be too mad. This is smart!

Posted by: Tony at March 20, 2008 10:33 PM

Agree, of course it's about the contract. Not that bruce is anything near what rasmus or even A. Jones will be, since he doesn't walk, but he's probably ready for a big league job now, and as a free-market-loving baseball fan, I hope CIN misses the playoffs by one game, as a result of trying to save ~2M in future negotiations...

As a cards fan, i have to recognize that (as azruavatar has said at VEB), patterson's defense is massively underrated. bruce would have to put up a much better OPS than .750 to be as valuable as patterson in CF for this particular team. I'm annoyed by it as a cards fan because this is a bad move by Dusty that may end up not hurting the team.

At least we'll get to watch him destroy arroyo, cueto and bailey...

Posted by: SleepyCA at March 21, 2008 03:39 AM

If you ignore the hype and past performance, Bruce's record this spring hasn't been dazzling. If he was a 32-year old pickup and not a 20-year old phenom, he might have earned himself a roster slot.

Posted by: justcorbly at March 21, 2008 10:33 AM

According to the Bill James Goldmine book, Patterson has drastically dropped his swing and miss rate and K's drastically the last two seasons. (page 27)

Swings and Misses dropped 18% in 06, 11% in 07
Strikeouts declined 23% in 06 and 31% in 07

That's a nice trend for a skill player at peak age and costing only a ML contract. As for Bruce, he's still a zygote and if he performs he'll find himself back in Cincinnati sooner than later. But the Reds have perhaps the largest OF in history in LF and a man whose thigh muscles are made of paper mache and spit, SOMEBODY has to catch the ball for the Reds someday, their OF defense the last 2 years is the worst I've ever seen it and I've been around for over 33 years as a Reds fan.

Posted by: Brian at March 21, 2008 10:49 AM
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