We finally get a winner-take-all game in the 2008 post season as the Red Sox and Rays battle in game seven of the ALCS. Jon Lester faces Matt Garza at 8:07 PM EDT, and with luck we'll see the whole game tonight. The bill is a rematch of game three won by Garza and the Rays 9-1. Lester allowed five runs, four earned in 5 2/3 inning in that game. Despite that performance, Jon holds a 1.83 ERA in this post season. He's struck out 18 while walking just five in 19 2/3 innings. Graza's had a problem with control in the playoffs, walking 7 in 12 innings. That's out of line with both his season and his career.

This game should favor the Rays. Garza pitched very well at the Trop this season, posting a 2.89 ERA in home games. Lester, on the other hand, earned a 4.09 ERA on the road this season. Those numbers were in the opposite direction in game three, yet Garza came out on top.

Lester's problems on the road come from right-handed batters pounding him. They're hitting .305. You would think with Lester as a lefty in Fenway, he'd have more trouble with righties there.

Garza does a better job of limiting opponents power at home. Only 18 of the 49 extra base hits against Garza came at the Trop. If he can hold the Red Sox to singles tonight, they will need many more hits to score.

The Rays lead the Red Sox in runs 40-27 in the series. If the Red Sox win, it's likely to be a reversal of the regular season in which the Red Sox had a much bigger run differential than the Rays, yet finished second in the AL East.

I'm expecting a fun game tonight. Enjoy!