Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 04, 2008
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008

Baseball Info Solutions sent me their fielding data, and that means it's time to start presenting the 2008 Probabilistic Model of Range. If you're new to this, you can find explanations in this archive. Basically, for each fieldable (non inside the park home runs) ball put in play, six parameters are used to determine how difficult it was to field the ball. A probability of turning the ball into an out is calculated, and those probabilities are summed. That gives us expected batted balls turned into outs. We turn that into a predicted DER (defensive efficiency record), compare that to the actual DER and calculate a ranking.

The model is based primarily on visiting player data, smoothed, using distance on fly balls and a hard hit indicator on ground balls. Only 2008 data was used to construct the model.

Note that a team can post a poor DER during the season, but do well in this model if the balls put into play were extremely difficult to field. This helps the Braves rank second.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007 Data, Teams, Visit Smooth Distance Model, Ranked by Difference
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Index
Blue Jays 4215 2961 2896.74 0.702 0.687 102.22
Braves 4383 3033 2977.44 0.692 0.679 101.87
Rays 4264 3023 2979.66 0.709 0.699 101.45
Athletics 4285 2991 2950.73 0.698 0.689 101.36
Red Sox 4232 2953 2913.30 0.698 0.688 101.36
Astros 4292 2990 2952.74 0.697 0.688 101.26
Angels 4374 3022 2985.77 0.691 0.683 101.21
Brewers 4354 3036 3000.17 0.697 0.689 101.19
Cardinals 4597 3190 3163.77 0.694 0.688 100.83
Dodgers 4265 2941 2919.81 0.690 0.685 100.73
Cubs 4156 2925 2906.58 0.704 0.699 100.63
Twins 4607 3161 3144.82 0.686 0.683 100.51
Mariners 4512 3068 3053.72 0.680 0.677 100.47
Indians 4513 3093 3082.17 0.685 0.683 100.35
White Sox 4409 3021 3013.27 0.685 0.683 100.26
Marlins 4338 3002 2994.74 0.692 0.690 100.24
Diamondbacks 4224 2892 2886.85 0.685 0.683 100.18
Giants 4232 2897 2898.76 0.685 0.685 99.94
Tigers 4536 3105 3109.78 0.685 0.686 99.85
Phillies 4396 3054 3062.15 0.695 0.697 99.73
Mets 4335 3024 3033.17 0.698 0.700 99.70
Rangers 4667 3124 3136.62 0.669 0.672 99.60
Padres 4419 3074 3088.40 0.696 0.699 99.53
Pirates 4683 3157 3175.46 0.674 0.678 99.42
Rockies 4535 3072 3090.76 0.677 0.682 99.39
Nationals 4417 3041 3060.09 0.688 0.693 99.38
Orioles 4540 3119 3139.36 0.687 0.691 99.35
Yankees 4349 2962 2984.01 0.681 0.686 99.26
Reds 4299 2889 2921.00 0.672 0.679 98.90
Royals 4413 3038 3076.09 0.688 0.697 98.76

The Rays turned in the best combination of good pitching and good defense. Their .699 predicted DER was second to the Mets. Unlike the Mets, however, the Rays fielded more balls than expected, giving the best DER, but only the third best Index. The Blue Jays turned in a tremendous defensive season, a big reason their pitching staff did so well in ERA in 2008.

The bottom of this chart is very interesting. From the Padres down, teams 23-30 all turned out to be very poor teams with the exception of the Yankees. Defense didn't necessarily help a team win, as the Phillies were pretty middle of the road, but it certainly seemed to indicate a pretty bad team.

Note that last season, the Devil Rays were at the very bottom of the list. They improved both their predicted DER and their ability to turn batted balls into outs. That was enough to lower their runs allowed from 944 to 671 and make them American League champions.


Comments

Up until about June 1, the Orioles were at the top of the DER charts. That's when they released Luis Hernandez their SS who couldn't hit a lick. It also pretty much was the start of the team's decline.

I believe that Cabrera was pretty good up until that point too. I think that a closer look at the Orioles and their defense this year could yield some interesting conclusions on the role defense plays in determining the success of pitchers.

Posted by: soccer dad at November 5, 2008 08:21 AM

Up until about June 1, the Orioles were at the top of the DER charts. That's when they released Luis Hernandez their SS who couldn't hit a lick. It also pretty much was the start of the team's decline.

I believe that Cabrera was pretty good up until that point too. I think that a closer look at the Orioles and their defense this year could yield some interesting conclusions on the role defense plays in determining the success of pitchers.

Posted by: soccer dad at November 5, 2008 08:24 AM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?