November 06, 2008
Three Way Rumor
Tim Brown floats this rumor about a three-way trade between the Yankees, Mariners and Rockies:
One source mentioned a potential three-way deal that would send outfielder Hideki Matsui from the New York Yankees to the Seattle Mariners for a pitching prospect, perhaps Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Yankees would package the prospect with second baseman Robinson Cano and another young player to the Rockies for Holliday.
Bleeding Blue and Teal feels this deal should not be sealed.
Wow, if this has any truth I will be insanely angry. There is no way that the most we can get for Rowland-Smith is Matsui, who is an aging, below average defensive outfielder. Sure, his bat is definitely a positive, but in two of the past three seasons he's been hurt, and been limited to less than 100 games.
On the other hand, if I'm the Yankees with a need for pitching, I'm stopping at Matsui for Rowland-Smith. He's a pretty good pitcher, and I really like his minor league strikeout and walk numbers. With the Yankees poor defense, they need pitchers who keep the ball out of play.
Posted by David Pinto at
09:05 AM
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To be fair on Matsui, one of those injury seasons was a broken wrist on a diving play.
The knees, however, are another story. While I'd hate to see Matsui & Cano go, I'd do the deal.
The Yankees pitching isn't really that bad, almost exactly league-average. But with Giambi hitting the road, the Yanks really need to shore up their offense. Holliday is a great hitter, eleventh in all baseball in OPS this year, seventh last year.
Yes, he would get hurt going from Coors (still a fine hitters park though not nearly as extreme as it once was) to the new Yankee Stadium, which I understand will have the same righty-punishing dimesions. But he would still probably give the team at least its second-highest OPS.
Don't think any such deal will happen, though. The Yanks look much more interested in Teixeira and/or Sabathia than Holliday.
The rumor is that the "young" player mentioned would have to be Phil Hughes in order to get Holliday. From the Yankees perspective, they would be giving up Matsui, Cano, and Hughes, and receiving Holliday. That seems like overpaying to me.
Matsui, Cano and Hughes are starting to look like three very overrated and/or unproven players to me. I would seriously consider giving up this trio for Holliday.
Cano crashed to a .715 OPS this year, Hughes hasn't done much in the majors except get hurt, and Matsui is 34 and clearly declining when not hurt, which isn't often lately.
I dunno, tempting offer. If the Yanks could land Holliday, Teixeira and Sabathia in the offseason, I'd favor them heavily for the division.
From a Rox perspective this would have sounded better a year ago, when Cano hadn't mysteriously cratered and when the Rox looked uncertain at 2b. Barmes actually played well at 2b late in the season. Rox should push for pitching and OF help in return for Holliday, not infielders.
By the way, a story on mlb.com mentions that the Rays may be interested in Holliday. He certainly would be a tremendous upgrade over Crawford in left...at least a hundred-and-fifty OPS points, maybe two hundred.
The Rays didn't get much out of their outfield offensively this year, a big reason they only ranked ninth in the league in runs scored. Crawford put up a .718 OPS, downright embarrassing for a left fielder.
Holliday is also a better baserunner than Crawford (significantly higher stolen base percentage) and at least as good a fielder (very similar range factors). I can see why the rumors are floating about the Rays and Holliday. Would be a huge upgrade all round for Tampa Bay.
The Rockies would extract some pitching from the Rays, but they have a surplus there. Hm, sounds like a realistic possibility.
Holliday is fools gold. Anyone chasing him is going to get a big handful of nothing at the end of the day. His road numbers aren't any better than average.
Cano had a bad year after several very good years. Matsui is still good for some offense, but won't be playing the field any time soon (or ever).
Well, sure, his road numbers are no better than average, if you think an .891 OPS is average.
Of course, that number is way above average. It would have put Holliday in the top 25 of all hitters in baseball.
Holliday would be such an upgrade over the aging, usually hurt, defensively horrendous Matsui or the truly awful Crawford that it's not funny. Some team will land a terrific left fielder.
And by the way, Cano has never managed an OPS above the supposedly "average" road OPS that Holliday put up this year. Cano's career .803 OPS is almost a hundred points below that supposedly "average" number from Holliday.
And Cano is average at best in the field...11th among 16 qualifiers in zone rating.
One more thing: Holliday was first among qualifying left fielders in zone rating in 2008. He's a terrific all-round player. If he played in New York he'd get endless publicity. Unlike the badly overrated Cano he'd deserve it.
One season is a small sample size.
Holliday's career road OPS: .803
Holliday's career home OPS: 1.063
That's a big difference. A leftfielder with a career OPS of .803? That's really nothing special. I'd rather have Damon in LF and Matsui at DH than give up Matsui and Hughes and Cano or whoever the rumors have going.
Holliday is now enjoying his best years. I'll gladly take his contract year coming up in 2009. He'll be playing for that big free agency bundle. I predict a .900+ OPS, easy.
You can have the overrated Cano and the overaged Matsui, who I bet won't come within 100 points of Holliday's OPS next year, if even that close. Hughes? Who knows. My guess is he gets hurt in his third start, if not sooner.
Not to mention that Matsui is totally useless in the field and on the bases, and Cano is mediocre to poor, while Holliday is excellent at both.
The problem with taking Cano is that if you knew you were getting say the avg 06-07 Cano you'd have a really good offensive 2B but if you get the '08 Cano you'd get the