Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 06, 2008
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Second Basemen

The following table shows how team second basemen ranked according to the Probabilistic Model of Range:

Team Second Basemen PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Marlins 4338 527 500.98 0.121 0.115 105.19
Phillies 4396 528 504.35 0.120 0.115 104.69
Reds 4299 498 478.19 0.116 0.111 104.14
Diamondbacks 4224 561 539.98 0.133 0.128 103.89
Cubs 4156 500 487.52 0.120 0.117 102.56
Rockies 4535 564 552.06 0.124 0.122 102.16
Tigers 4536 505 495.02 0.111 0.109 102.02
Angels 4374 545 535.72 0.125 0.122 101.73
Indians 4513 554 545.22 0.123 0.121 101.61
Twins 4607 513 505.30 0.111 0.110 101.52
Athletics 4285 518 510.99 0.121 0.119 101.37
Blue Jays 4215 532 525.31 0.126 0.125 101.27
Brewers 4354 508 503.13 0.117 0.116 100.97
White Sox 4409 535 533.38 0.121 0.121 100.30
Orioles 4540 498 498.38 0.110 0.110 99.92
Cardinals 4597 517 517.91 0.112 0.113 99.82
Yankees 4349 556 557.46 0.128 0.128 99.74
Red Sox 4232 505 508.07 0.119 0.120 99.40
Astros 4292 464 467.09 0.108 0.109 99.34
Mariners 4512 602 608.69 0.133 0.135 98.90
Rangers 4667 539 546.88 0.115 0.117 98.56
Royals 4413 547 555.11 0.124 0.126 98.54
Nationals 4417 464 471.01 0.105 0.107 98.51
Braves 4383 526 534.13 0.120 0.122 98.48
Pirates 4683 466 478.32 0.100 0.102 97.43
Mets 4335 476 492.58 0.110 0.114 96.63
Giants 4232 417 432.81 0.099 0.102 96.35
Rays 4264 472 490.56 0.111 0.115 96.22
Padres 4419 475 499.74 0.107 0.113 95.05
Dodgers 4265 484 514.65 0.113 0.121 94.04

The Marlins number one at second base? That certainly flies in the face of Dan Uggla's performance in the All-Star Game. It's not that surprising, however, to see the Dodgers with the aging Jeff Kent coming in last. On to the individual players:

Individual Second Baseman PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs DER Predicted DER Ratio
Adam Kennedy 2036 247 226.55 0.121 0.111 109.03
Mike Fontenot 1448 175 160.82 0.121 0.111 108.82
Emilio Bonifacio 1008 100 93.17 0.099 0.092 107.33
Chase Utley 4231 513 485.09 0.121 0.115 105.75
Marco Scutaro 1077 144 136.95 0.134 0.127 105.15
Placido Polanco 3806 424 405.94 0.111 0.107 104.45
Dan Uggla 3841 465 445.31 0.121 0.116 104.42
Howie Kendrick 2341 308 295.94 0.132 0.126 104.07
Joe Inglett 1554 205 197.44 0.132 0.127 103.83
Asdrubal Cabrera 2446 316 304.98 0.129 0.125 103.61
Juan Uribe 1112 138 133.57 0.124 0.120 103.32
Brandon Phillips 3704 429 416.27 0.116 0.112 103.06
Clint Barmes 1519 183 177.61 0.120 0.117 103.03
Mark Ellis 3006 373 365.23 0.124 0.122 102.13
Alexi Casilla 2611 288 282.01 0.110 0.108 102.12
Orlando Hudson 2668 346 339.70 0.130 0.127 101.86
Kaz Matsui 2485 267 265.25 0.107 0.107 100.66
Rickie Weeks 3150 355 353.07 0.113 0.112 100.55
Dustin Pedroia 4003 479 477.12 0.120 0.119 100.39
Brian Roberts 4195 471 469.83 0.112 0.112 100.25
Robinson Cano 4152 531 530.64 0.128 0.128 100.07
Sean Rodriguez 1229 149 148.91 0.121 0.121 100.06
Mark Loretta 1110 129 128.96 0.116 0.116 100.03
Jose Lopez 3861 531 533.54 0.138 0.138 99.52
Alexei Ramirez 3081 371 373.04 0.120 0.121 99.45
Luis Castillo 2054 219 220.31 0.107 0.107 99.41
Mark Grudzielanek 2175 280 282.08 0.129 0.130 99.26
Tadahito Iguchi 1962 217 218.94 0.111 0.112 99.12
Jamey Carroll 1800 206 207.94 0.114 0.116 99.07
Ian Kinsler 3462 413 417.34 0.119 0.121 98.96
Kelly Johnson 3631 441 448.84 0.121 0.124 98.25
Mark DeRosa 1930 232 236.45 0.120 0.123 98.12
Freddy Sanchez 3688 368 378.01 0.100 0.102 97.35
Eugenio Velez 1355 128 133.20 0.094 0.098 96.09
Jeff Baker 1174 139 144.85 0.118 0.123 95.96
Felipe Lopez 2435 266 279.15 0.109 0.115 95.29
Aaron Hill 1375 164 172.51 0.119 0.125 95.07
Akinori Iwamura 3916 435 457.88 0.111 0.117 95.00
Aaron Miles 1551 171 182.78 0.110 0.118 93.55
Alberto Callaspo 1128 128 137.62 0.113 0.122 93.01
Ray Durham 2160 212 228.31 0.098 0.106 92.86
Edgar Gonzalez 1701 191 205.90 0.112 0.121 92.76
Brendan Harris 1016 101 109.08 0.099 0.107 92.59
Damion Easley 1607 170 186.57 0.106 0.116 91.12
Jeff Kent 2630 290 318.37 0.110 0.121 91.09

One thing I need to look at more closely is why Dan Uggla does so well. In the previous post on shortstops, a couple of commenters wanted more proof that this system actually works. I was a bit suprised by Akinori Iwamura rating so low, so I thought I would look at his poorest plays to see if they made sense. Of his four worst plays, all with a probablility of .889 or higher of being turned, two were errors hit right at him. One was a grounder to his right when he was playing too far left (poor positioning) and one was just bad judgement on a double play ball.

To compare, I looked at Utley's best play, since he was the best regular at the position. All three of his best plays were balls to the right of first base that got by Howard off the bats of left handers. In each case, Utley ranged into the outfield to field the ball and throw out the batter at first, twice I believe to the pitcher covering. He made those plays because Howard couldn't, but he was positioned so well he was in the right place to cover for Ryan.

The other thing I noticed is that toughest plays Utley made were much tougher than the best plays Iwamura executed. At the other end, easiest balls in play that Iwamura failed to turn into outs were much easier than Utley's worse plays.

If anyone would like to review video on MLB.com for a particular player, I'll be happy to send you the dates and innings of their best and worst plays.

In case you want to check my work, Iwamura's worst plays were on 9/7, 3rd inning, 8/20, 9th inning, 4/25, 9th inning, 7/30, 5th inning. Utley's best plays were on 7/23, 1st inning, 7/1, 1st inning and 8/3, 3rd inning.


Comments

I am curious to know whether you or others have done an analysis to determine the variability of a player's defensive performance in general from year to year. In other words, other than the very good and the very poor fielders (performance of both are assumed to be fairly consistent), how much does a player's range vary from year to year as determined by PMR?

Posted by: TE LeGraf at November 6, 2008 10:27 PM

It appears that there aren't the extremes this year for the middle infielders that there have been in years past. The best, and worst, fielders are 20 plays above or below average...in past years, players were as much as 40-50 plays above or below average.

Posted by: Adam J. Morris at November 6, 2008 10:30 PM

I was planning looking into the variation later in the off-season.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 6, 2008 11:13 PM

Marco Scutaro is the best SS and 5th best 2B - who knew - and what's with the Rickie Weeks detractors?

Posted by: Bandit at November 7, 2008 09:30 AM

David:

If you want to send me Uggla's data, I'll be happy to take a look at his best/worst plays.

I'm surprised there aren't more Red Sox fans here commenting about Pedroia's 2-plays-above-average rating :)

Posted by: Mike Emeigh at November 7, 2008 10:14 AM

Anyone know if it's possible/legal to post clips of individual fielding plays on the web? I'd love to put together something similar to the famous Jeter/Everett fielding video.

Posted by: Sky at November 7, 2008 10:24 AM

Sky,

My guess is that you could do it, but eventually MLB will make you take it down. I suppose, however, it could be circulated privately by email as long as no one charges for it and doesn't post it on the web.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 7, 2008 10:33 AM

You've improved this considerably since the year Orlando Hudson broke the model (ball-hog effect). Good work.

Posted by: Evan at November 7, 2008 02:14 PM

You might want to take a look at Rickie Weeks as a data set to show it is or isn't working. Most people seem to think he is so bad defensively that he needs to be moved to another position but PMR has him above average with range.

To be honest most defensive metrics show him as average this year, I think he just improved and people just key in on the mistakes still.

Posted by: Ender at November 8, 2008 01:12 PM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?