November 10, 2008
Big Holliday?
Via Phillies Nation, Sports Illustrated reports the Athletics are close to a deal to land Matt Holliday. That would be an unusual deal for Oakland, trading for an established star. Are they trying to capture the draft picks they would receive when he leaves for free agency? Or, after two losing seasons are they afraid they are going to lose fans if they don't start winning again?
Update: Here's more on the deal:
The A's are working to complete a trade with the Rockies that would bring Matt Holliday to Oakland in exchange for reliever Huston Street, starter Greg Smith and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, major-league sources said Monday.
Smith confirmed Monday that he is flying to Denver for a physical in the next day or two.
"I don't know how official everything is," Smith said. "All I know is I've been called, and I'm flying to Denver probably tomorrow."
He emphasized he does not know any details about other players who might be involved in a deal.
Street is the only sure thing in the deal. Smith was a high strikeout, low walk pitcher in the minors, but a low strikeout, high walk pitcher his rookie season in the majors. Gonzalez put up okay OBA and power numbers in the minors, but very poor number in half a season in the majors. It's better than getting nothing for Holliday, but I really wonder if he wouldn't be worth more at the trading deadline.
Posted by David Pinto at
02:58 PM
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This one really came out of, er, left field. The Google news cache is stuffed with reports saying that the deal is done, or almost done, or will be done any minute now.
In 2008 the A's weren't a real bad team, with a -44 run diff. And Holliday will certainly help their offense. But it's hard to see him getting the team to the the postseason next year, and he's not going to be in Oakland beyond next year.
I dunno. Surprise, surprise, surprise.
Sounds like Oakland may not be his last stop this winter
If the A's get Giambi now, they would really boost their anemic offense.
I also think this might just be a trade so that the A's might make another trade with him involved. But being that there's no mention of a thurd team you have to assume it's purely for them to benefit from. We will see for sure if they sign him to a long term deal within a weak of officially obtaining him.
I'm with bandit on this one, with one exception. I think he'll be shopped for an even better package in July.
And, remind me to read updates *before* I post. Before.
I don't know that the A's will try and shop him later. They did this a few years back (2001?) with Johnny Damon, who was a pending free agent with the Royals.
Everyone was shocked, but the A's felt they had a chance to win and Damon was a good piece. Of course, he was terrible in Oakland, especially in the first half.
With Holliday, the A's will certainly improve upon their league-worst 646 RS last season -- Oakland's corner outfielders had a 735-ish OPS last season -- without sacrificing too much from their run prevention.
And, frankly, the Angels weren't that good last season and could lose a few key free agents.
There are a number of ways this deal makes sense for Oakland, some of which have been addressed above. First and foremost, it doesn't seem like they gave up a lot for Holliday. I'm surprised the Rockies couldn't get more than two middling prospects and a closer who might have already seen his prime. It looks like a good trade, and possibly a steal, for Oakland.
In terms of 2009 success, Holliday improves the team's offense AND defense. The A's have a young, talented rotation; they could be the 2009 version of the Tampa Bay Rays. Probably not, but they could.
But even aside from dreams of contention, the trade gives them a huge trading chip for the midseason. And if they hold onto him through the season and lose him to free agency, they do get two primo draft picks.
If Billy Beane is really a true sabermetric believer, he may figure that the Teixeira-less Angels are due for a fall this season. LA-at-Anaheim-and-elsewhere only put up a +68 run diff, okay but hardly great. Their 31 one-run victories, tied for tops in MLB, argues for a drop-off in 2009. Luck turns.
So while acquiring Holliday may be only a flip 'em prelude to another deal, maybe Beane really is thinking about contention next year. The A's are not hopelessly behind the Angels, certainly not as far as the final 2008 standings indicate.