Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Rightfielders

November 10, 2008

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Rightfielders

The Probabilistic Model of Range reports continue with rightfielders. First, the team data:

Team Rightfielders PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Twins	4607	397	374.04	0.086	0.081	106.14
Blue Jays	4215	303	286.97	0.072	0.068	105.58
Giants	4232	392	372.99	0.093	0.088	105.10
Indians	4513	374	358.85	0.083	0.080	104.22
Padres	4419	339	329.60	0.077	0.075	102.85
Phillies	4396	318	310.41	0.072	0.071	102.45
Red Sox	4232	325	318.64	0.077	0.075	102.00
Braves	4383	313	307.02	0.071	0.070	101.95
Rangers	4667	382	375.27	0.082	0.080	101.79
Nationals	4417	353	346.81	0.080	0.079	101.78
Marlins	4338	345	340.25	0.080	0.078	101.40
Cubs	4156	333	329.14	0.080	0.079	101.17
Cardinals	4597	362	360.58	0.079	0.078	100.39
Diamondbacks	4224	269	268.33	0.064	0.064	100.25
Athletics	4285	377	376.50	0.088	0.088	100.13
Mariners	4512	309	310.73	0.068	0.069	99.44
Dodgers	4265	278	279.64	0.065	0.066	99.41
Brewers	4354	316	318.38	0.073	0.073	99.25
Pirates	4683	386	389.32	0.082	0.083	99.15
Royals	4413	334	336.94	0.076	0.076	99.13
Orioles	4540	338	341.58	0.074	0.075	98.95
Mets	4335	356	360.14	0.082	0.083	98.85
Astros	4292	357	365.06	0.083	0.085	97.79
Rays	4264	345	354.99	0.081	0.083	97.19
Reds	4299	327	338.05	0.076	0.079	96.73
Tigers	4536	301	311.48	0.066	0.069	96.64
White Sox	4409	296	308.31	0.067	0.070	96.01
Angels	4374	308	322.64	0.070	0.074	95.46
Yankees	4349	301	316.77	0.069	0.073	95.02
Rockies	4535	249	273.59	0.055	0.060	91.01

It seems rightfielder defense didn't have that much influence on playoff teams. Five of the eight post-season teams finished in the bottom half of the majors. Here's a look at the individuals:

Individual Rightfielder PMR, 2008, Visit Smooth Distance Model, 2008 data only (1000 balls in play)
Player	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Ratio
Alex Rios	2373	170	156.05	0.072	0.066	108.94
Denard Span	2099	192	176.27	0.091	0.084	108.92
Franklin Gutierrez	2400	224	207.25	0.093	0.086	108.08
Jayson Werth	1964	143	133.49	0.073	0.068	107.12
Randy Winn	3247	309	291.22	0.095	0.090	106.10
Matt Kemp	1391	97	91.48	0.070	0.066	106.04
Endy Chavez	1176	109	103.84	0.093	0.088	104.97
Austin Kearns	2268	187	179.28	0.082	0.079	104.30
Michael Cuddyer	1640	123	118.33	0.075	0.072	103.95
Justin Upton	2531	175	168.66	0.069	0.067	103.76
Kosuke Fukudome	3164	246	240.12	0.078	0.076	102.45
Jeff Francoeur	4016	284	278.05	0.071	0.069	102.14
David Murphy	1279	107	104.84	0.084	0.082	102.06
Ryan Sweeney	1462	136	133.41	0.093	0.091	101.94
Ichiro Suzuki	2491	176	172.83	0.071	0.069	101.83
Mark Teahen	2292	185	181.68	0.081	0.079	101.82
Brian Giles	3845	276	271.51	0.072	0.071	101.65
Jeremy Hermida	3310	266	263.10	0.080	0.079	101.10
J.D. Drew	2658	184	183.15	0.069	0.069	100.47
Gabe Gross	2225	186	185.51	0.084	0.083	100.26
Nick Markakis	4353	329	328.98	0.076	0.076	100.00
Corey Hart	4134	304	305.57	0.074	0.074	99.49
Brad Wilkerson	1428	95	95.58	0.067	0.067	99.39
Ryan Church	2158	180	181.26	0.083	0.084	99.31
Geoff Jenkins	1974	141	142.41	0.071	0.072	99.01
Elijah Dukes	1840	137	138.55	0.074	0.075	98.88
Shin-Soo Choo	1255	89	90.51	0.071	0.072	98.33
Hunter Pence	4112	341	349.04	0.083	0.085	97.70
Emil Brown	1264	112	114.89	0.089	0.091	97.49
Jay Bruce	1777	143	147.07	0.080	0.083	97.23
Jose Guillen	1673	121	124.68	0.072	0.075	97.05
Andre Ethier	2620	171	176.94	0.065	0.068	96.64
Ryan Ludwick	3037	232	240.07	0.076	0.079	96.64
Vladimir Guerrero	2541	180	186.37	0.071	0.073	96.58
Xavier Nady	2497	199	207.14	0.080	0.083	96.07
Magglio Ordonez	3588	220	229.25	0.061	0.064	95.96
Jermaine Dye	3981	266	277.60	0.067	0.070	95.82
Bobby Abreu	3933	271	284.58	0.069	0.072	95.23
Eric Hinske	1001	88	92.73	0.088	0.093	94.90
Ken Griffey Jr.	2257	157	166.16	0.070	0.074	94.48
Gary Matthews Jr.	1013	77	82.08	0.076	0.081	93.81
Brad Hawpe	3645	188	213.67	0.052	0.059	87.99

Denard Span not only improved the Twins leadoff slot, he also did a great job tracking down balls in rightfield. While I'm not surprised to see older players like Ken Griffey and Bobby Abreu near the bottom of the list, I didn't expect to see Gary Matthews, Jr. there.

Ichiro Suzuki also adds some interest. He came out near the top in center, but in the middle in right. It's a bit of a mystery why he does better in center than he does in right.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:05 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

As a Yankee fan, it's disappointing to see Nady almost as horrific a right fielder as Abreu.

Posted by: sabernar at November 10, 2008 09:25 PM

I received an extraordinarily high amount of slander for picking Gutierrez as my deserving candidate to win the gold glove for American League RFers. Most of the slander came from people chiming in for Markakis.

This now makes three defensive measures (+/-, RZR) that places Frankie atop Markakis.

Posted by: Brandon H at November 11, 2008 10:35 AM

Any comments about fielders performance based on these models should be prefaced as such with the disclaimer that they have no basis in reality.

Posted by: Bandit at November 11, 2008 01:02 PM

"Any comments about fielders performance based on these models should be prefaced as such with the disclaimer that they have no basis in reality. "

If you've got a model that improves on PMR - other than your own WAG, that is - I'm sure that David would appreciate your input.

Posted by: Mike Emeigh at November 11, 2008 07:37 PM

IMHO any list that has Jayson Werth as the 4th best defensive RF in baseball has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Posted by: Joe at November 11, 2008 10:41 PM