The series on team offense continues with the Boston Red Sox. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:

• Best lineup: 5.67 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 5.57 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 5.41 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 5.00 runs per game

The Red Sox scored 5.22 runs per game in 2008.

One marvels at the ability of the Red Sox front office to assemble such a group of selective hitters who also hit for power. The only weak spot in the lineup is Varitek, and if he posts a .325 OBA I bet the front office will be extremely happy. As you can see by the very small difference between the best and worst lineups, it's tough for Terry Francona to go wrong making out the card. I'd love to see Terry try lineup number three some time, starting Drew, Ortiz, Youkilis and Bay 1-4.

There are two main worries with this lineup. The first is age and injury. There's a reason the Red Sox wanted Mark Teixeira, they're not sure how Mike Lowell will hold up. J.D. Drew's back is already acting up, and David Ortiz is coming off a wrist injury. The other concern would be with their youngsters, Ellsbury and Lowrie. Jed is still an unknown at the major league level. Ellsbury's offense fell off quite a bit from June through August last year, although he appeared to get his groove back in September. With only 670 at bats under his belt, we're still not sure where Ellsbury will wind up.

Even with those concerns, the Red Sox are still a deep team, and even with an injury or two I expect them to be near the league lead in runs scored.

Other teams in this series:

• Texas Rangers (see this entry for a full explanation of this system).
• Chicago Cubs

Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Buy Red Sox opening day tickets.