March 08, 2009
Team Offense, Philadelphia Phillies
The series on team offense continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers I used the team pitchers line from 2008. The results:
- Best lineup: 4.87 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.65 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.21 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.44 runs per game
The Phillies scored 4.93 runs per game in 2008, the same number as the Mets.
These numbers all come in a little bit behind the Mets. I took a look at the lineup with Burrell in left instead of Ibanez, and the team scores about 0.11 runs per game more, or close to 18 more runs over the season. That's about two wins. Over the last four years FanGraphs, actually rates Burrell as a better left fielder than Ibanez. Given how close the division played the last two seasons, two wins is a lot for the Phillies to give up.
Other teams in this series:
Please donate to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Buy Phillies opening day tickets.
I just want to point out that JRoll and Utley both played hurt most of the year, and that Howard could hit more like two or three years ago.
Offense won't be a problem.
