March 12, 2009
Team Offense, Atlanta Braves
Chipper Jones
Photo: Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Atlanta Braves. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I used the Braves 2008 numbers. The results:
- Best lineup: 5.08 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.86 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.49 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.57 runs per game
The Braves scored 4.65 runs per game in 2008.
I really don't like the way the middle of this lineup is put together. With McCann and Kotchman on the team, Cox projects to bat the fading Garret Anderson fourth. The Lineup Tool gets this right, batting both Anderson and Francoeur near the end of the offense. The probable lineup puts McCann in a very bad spot, with a poor hitter in front of him to limit RBI opportunities, and a poor hitter behind him to limit run scoring opportunities. To me, Jones, Kotchman, McCann gives the Braves a better heart of the order and raises the probability of getting three straight hits/on-base in the heart of the order. That would score more from the top and set up the bottom for RBI.
I like the Marcel projection for Chipper. What would Braves fans rather have, a year where he threatens .400 but only plays 128 games or the Marcel projection and Chipper on the field for a full season?
Other teams in this series:
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