The last sunset of 2003 turned out to be a real beauty. My wife Marilyn captured it from our back yard (click on the picture for a larger view):

Happy New Year to all!

Looks like David Wells crossed up the Yankees and is headed for warmer climes:

"David agreed verbally to a deal," Cashman said. "There was one component to be completed, a weigh-in. We didn't get it finalized, but we had the financials in place.

"Right now, we're waiting to find out if Boomer honors his commitment. If not, we get two draft picks. He knows how I feel. The ball's in David's court."

Two years ago, Wells had a handshake deal to sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks when the Yankees swooped in to sign him at the last minute.

"I'm not complaining," Cashman said. "This can happen when you're negotiating with David."

I think Cashman's better off with the two draft picks. :-) The Padres expect Wells to lead their rotation, which says to me they don't think much of their starters. Still, local man makes good, and he'll be a draw at the new stadium.

The US government has announced a ban of ephedra, an herbal supplement linked to the death of Orioles pitcher Steve Bechler. I'm not crazy about bans like this. The people who want to use ephedra will get it; and since they will get it illegally, I suspect it won't be as good as the over-the-counter supplement, and even more harm may be done.

Earlier this year, I suggested a get tough policy for the minor leagues, similar to the one used with tobacco. The ban will make some people happy, and the government looks like it's doing something, but I doubt it will be very effective. You would think a few deaths would be enough to turn people off, but I don't remember cocaine use going down after Len Bias.

Jason Johnson, non-tendered by Orioles, has signed with the Detroit Tigers. Not exactly a great career move, but he earned 11 win shares last year, and the best pitcher on the Tigers, Nate Cornejo, earned only 8. Johnson's not a great pitcher; he walks to many and doesn't strike out enough. The fact that he improves the Tigers rotation just shows how bad they were last year.

According to the Rocky Mountain News, Royce Clayton is close to signing with the Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies have had interest all along in Clayton, who played last season in Milwaukee, feeling he could fit as a super utility infielder or protection at second base if they signed shortstop Rich Aurilia. In the past week, however, the Rockies have begun to doubt their ability to make a deal with Aurilia, and Clayton could be projected into the starting lineup at shortstop.

The Rockies offered Aurilia a $2.5 million deal, but agent Barry Axelrod has said the proposal is below what other teams have offered. The Rockies, however, are the only National League team to approach Aurilia that trains in Arizona and wants him to play shortstop.

Royce Clayton's value last year was all in his defense. He put up zero offensive win shares last year. The only other player to have at least 480 AB and zero offensive win shares was Jose Hernandez. I guess the Brewers found the appropriate replacement for him. Aurilia, at this point in his career, isn't exactly a prize, but I'd much rather have Rich than poor Royce Clayton starting for me.

Ivan Calderon was shot and killed over the weekend in Puerto Rico.

Witnesses said Calderon was in a store when two people entered and, without a word, shot the former outfielder multiple times in the back, said police Sgt. Maribel Arzuaga.

Like the Dernell Stenson case, this sounds like an execution to me. I wonder if we'll find out more details in the coming days.

One person I'm hearing very little buzz about this off season is Roberto Alomar. I did a search of google news, and the only tidbit I found that was the least bit interesting was in this assessment of the Cardinals moves:

Meanwhile, left field and second base remain unsettled, and the club still needs a leadoff hitter. Names like Roberto Alomar and Eric Young keep popping up, but neither is exciting. Alomar will be 36 next season and coming off two seasons of mediocrity. Young, who will be 37 in May, batted .251 and fields about the same. Is either one better than Vina?

Roberto Alomar not exciting? Roberto Alomar 36?! This is a man who was one of the most exciting players in the game for the first 14 years of his career. He got on base. He had some pop in his bat. He was fast and knew how to steal bases (80.9 % for his career). He was a playoff hero, and often dazzled spectators with his fielding. Yes, he had his umpire run-in that will leave a negative stain on his image, but this is a Hall of Fame player.

The last two season he's put up OBA's 40 points below his career average, with no power. He's a free agent likely looking for megabucks, and teams are now smart enough to know that he's a bad investment at eight figures, and even at high seven figures. He needs 321 hits for 3000. A couple of years ago, he looked like a shoe-in, but at his current rate, he'll have to play three seasons to get there. Maybe some club will offer him a low base with lots of incentives. Or maybe he'll just hang up his spikes, go home and enjoy his millions. It's just a reminder of how fast a career can fall apart.

Dan Duquette is back in action running a team. This time, he'll be running a collegiate summer team:

Duquette told the Berkshire Eagle that he's received preliminary approval from the New England Collegiate Baseball League to move the Thread City Tides of Willimantic, Conn., to the Dan Duquette Sports Academy in Hinsdale.

NECBL officials did not return telephone calls seeking comment, but said earlier this month that an owner of a sports camp in the Pittsfield area wanted to bring a team to the Berkshires.

Pittsfield lost its independent league team to New Haven, so at least there will be some baseball in the area this summer. I had never heard of this league before, I'll have to check it out this summer.

Phoebe got a Christmas present, too:

Click on the photo for a larger view.

A Christmas Card for you!

To help out with a study comparing my probabilistic model of range to MGL's UZR, here's Steve Finely broken down by field slice and by batted ball type (in the field slice, C would be the third base line and X would be first base. MN is straight away center field):

Steve Finley, 2003 by Field Slice

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
J	5.8	0.033	4.0	0.023	-0.01052
K	39.0	0.236	38.0	0.230	-0.00597
L	43.7	0.289	40.0	0.265	-0.02425
M	61.1	0.284	61.0	0.284	-0.00028
N	34.3	0.195	37.0	0.210	0.01532
O	43.5	0.315	43.0	0.312	-0.00341
P	29.2	0.226	28.0	0.217	-0.00918
Q	9.8	0.091	6.0	0.056	-0.03544
R	3.1	0.018	1.0	0.006	-0.01254

Steve Finley, 2003 by Batted Ball Type

Batted Ball Type	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
F	248.6	0.355	236.0	0.337	-0.01793
L	18.8	0.031	20.0	0.033	0.00196
P	3.5	0.012	2.0	0.007	-0.00499

Looks to me like Finley does not move well laterally.

The mega-deal of the millenium is no more. The Rangers are going to have to live with the best player in the game, and the Red Sox are going to have to live with two great hitters in their lineup.

The Yankees have signed Kenny Lofton to a two-year deal. I'm sure he'll play center while Williams moves to designated hitter. He's going to improve the Yankees defense in center, although he's not the fielder he once was.

My question is, will he lead off? He had a .352 OBA last year, .381 in 56 games for the Cubs. At .352, he'll be a better leadoff man than Soriano, who should probably be hitting 8th on this team. Off the top of my head, I'd probably go with this lineup:

1. Lofton
2. Jeter
3. Sheffield
4. Giambi
5. Posada
6. Williams
7. Matsui
8. Soriano
9. Boone

My guess is, however, that Torre will keep Soriano in the leadoff spot to make him happy, and Lofton will bat 9th as a 2nd leadoff man.

Jeter and Matsui will both turn 30 next June. Having 8 or your 9 starting batters on the downside of their careers should worry management. Still, it's an impressive lineup. They'll just have to keep remaking it every other year.

A number of baseball celebrities participated in this year's Oakland Ballet "2003 All-Star Nutcracker." Alysse Minkoff has details, including why it's great to be Barry Zito. :-)

MGL's UZR study for 2003 is up at Baseball Primer. In the disscussion, there's a link that compares my probabilistic system rankings of CF's to UZR.

Don Ketchum of the Arizona Republic is reporting that the DBacks will fill out their rotation with knuckleballer Steve Sparks and former Astro Shane Reynolds. These are the pitcher replacing Schilling and Batista.

Sparks has not had a stellar career. He did have a good year in 2001 for the Tigers, going 14-9 with a 3.65 ERA, but he's never come close to that before or since. I did find this interesting, however:

Sparks, whose one-year contract likely will be in the $625,000 range, said he doesn't believe his knuckleball will be affected by dry conditions in Phoenix in his first National League season.

"I've spent some springs there (with Milwaukee and Anaheim) and had no problem with the climate," he said.

He was impressed with the way Diamondbacks General Manager Joe Garagiola Jr. "did his homework" on knuckleballers having success the first season after changing leagues.

If anyone has a link to research on the subject, I'd love to post it.

Reynolds hasn't had a good year since 1999. Through the 1999 season, he had struck out 7.8 per 9 innings; since then, 5.5. Looks like in reducing salary, the DBacks are getting what they pay for. However, I've learned over the seasons not to dismiss moves by Garagiola. He seems to have a certain touch that I tend to think is luck, but I'm also willing to believe he has a way of recognizing a player's strengths and taking advantage of same.

Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star looks at how non-tenders help flood the free agent market, and bring Charlie Finley's dream closer to reality. (Link via Baseball Primer.)

Someone pointed out this site to me today. If you ever wanted to know what a "can of corn" was, or what "catcher obstruction" was, you can find it there.

I had wondered why the A's picked up Michael Barrett from the Expos. It turns out they wanted Damien Miller, and they knew the Cubs wanted Barrett. So they traded a young, poor hitting catcher for an older, somewhat better hitting catcher. I assume Miller is a stop gap until Jeremy Brown is ready.

In other catching news, Javy Lopez is reported to be close to signing with Baltimore. Where does that leave Ivan Rodriguez. Personally, if I had the choice between Lopez and I-Rod, I'm taking Ivan. He's younger and he's had a more consistent career.

Update: Lopez has been officially signed. Where will I-Rod go now?

ESPN has a list of the players who were not offered contracts by yesterday's deadline and have become free agents. Looks like Randall Simon and Braden Looper are the best of the bunch.

Jan from Wellesley send a link to this NY Times article by baseball business expert Andrew Zimbalist:

"The Brewers made it clear that if we built a modern, state-of-the-art stadium, it would provide them with the resources to field a winning baseball team," Thompson, now the secretary of health and human services, said. "The Brewers need to put an end to the games. They need to invest in a winning team."

Other politicians are more outspoken. Referring to the family that owns the Brewers, State Senator Mike Ellis said, "The Seligs just scammed the living dickens out of the people of this state."

They not only scammed the state, they appear to have scammed the rest of baseball:

Meanwhile, the Brewers' ownership has decided that the team cannot be competitive in the near term. The opening-day payroll was reduced from $52.7 million in 2002 to $40.6 million in 2003 and to a projected $30 million for 2004. (The Brewers have dumped the salaries of seven of their higher-paid players from last season.) Fans want to know what happened to the promise of a competitive team.

Fans might also want to know what the Brewers are doing with their revenue-sharing money from Major League Baseball. During the labor negotiations, Bud Selig, who put his 30 percent interest in the Brewers in a blind trust after becoming commissioner in 1998, reportedly insisted that the new agreement restructure the revenue-sharing plan so that the third quartile of teams receive a proportionately larger benefit than the bottom quartile.

His family's Brewers just happen to be in the third quartile and just happen to have increased their net revenue-sharing receipts by more than any other team. It rose from $1.5 million in 2001 to $9.1 million in 2002 to an estimated $18 million in 2003, according to a financial analysis the Brewers provided to potential investors in July.

The labor agreement is clear that each club must use its receipts "in an effort to improve its performance on the field" and that the commissioner "shall enforce this obligation." Thus, the Brewers appear to be violating their covenants with the people of Wisconsin and with the players' union, as the commissioner seems to be idly standing by.

Selig, as commissioner, has not acted in the best interests of baseball. He's acted in the best interest of his pocketbook. I don't know why the other owners have allowed him to continue in this job. I've assumed it was one of two reasons:

• Selig knows incrimnating things about enough owners that he can't be touched.


• The other owners don't care that much, and since Selig is willing to do the work, they let him be commissioner.

I guess we're stuck with him for a while. When he's replaced this is the system I'd like to see used. Maybe then we'll get someone who is more interested in an owners-players partnership than stealing from his fans and peers.

Jose Guillen became an Angel yesterday. He'll play right field and Tim Salmon will move to designated hitter. The Angels are hoping last year wasn't a fluke for Guillen, but even if it was, they are only paying him $3 million a year for two years. That won't break them.

Anaheim now turns to look for a first baseman. We may know more about that move after players are non-tendered tonight.

The Oakland A's are finalizing a contract to bring Arthur Rhodes to town to replace Keith Foulke. At first glance, it seems like Beane's streak of finding cheap closers is coming to an end. After all, he lost a pitcher who posted 21 win shares and is replacing him with someone who only had 4 last year. But let it be noted that in 2002, Foulke had only 9 win shares, that's why Beane was able to get him cheap.

Rhodes certainly had an off year in 2003. But if you look at his career as a reliever, what stands out is his great strikeout and walk numbers. As a reliever, he's struck out 615 in 561 1/3 innings while walking only 215. That's good for a .289 OBA allowed. His K's did fall off a bit last year (48 in 54 innings); he's 34 years old, and you wonder if he's lost a little bit of his stuff. But it's a good gamble for Beane. Rhodes has the tools to be a good closer, and he comes in at half the price of Foulke.

Update: An alert reader points out that Rhodes had an ankle injury last season, which may have contributed to his poor season.

Kevin Millwood has accepted the Phillies offer of arbitration. That gives the Phillies a very solid pitching staff going into the 2004 season.

It was a surprise when the Phillies made the arbitration offer Dec. 7, but general manager Ed Wade said the team was willing to take on Millwood's salary for one year, even though it would put them "significantly over budget."

There also a significant chance the Phillies can win this year, especially with the Braves offensively weakened by their departing free agents. Making the playoffs their first year in a new stadium is going to mean big crowds, and that extra revenue might make up for Millwood's salary.

Tom Fevola sends this thoughtful letter:

I've come to the conclusion that I was a bit hasty yesterday in chastising the MLBPA. Maybe we all were. I am beginning to see the picture clearer now.

Firstly, I understand why the MLBPA did what they did. Actually, I understood it yesterday too, but I just didn't agree with the decision. I felt that the "setting of the precedent" argument was wrong based on A-Rod's "special" situation. I don't see that today after reflecting on this subject.

It can set a precedent, and MLBPA is correct in what they did by nixing the deal. However, now I question the entire system. The MLBPA is in place for the players. I believe that they do indeed need some type of protection from the Owners and Clubs so they do not revert to the old days where they sorely underpay for a player's worth. The MLBPA is doing what they are supposed to be doing, albeit ridiculous sometimes.

But, there also needs to be some flexibility to take into considerations a player and an owner's feelings. The current system doesn't allow for the correction of "mistakes". One person on your comments section posed an excellent question, "Doesn't a player's value ever decrease?" Well, the answer is yes it does. Take any player nearing the end of a larger contract that's considered a bust. Obviously they could not get the same contract again if they aren't performing to the same level they did when the originally negotiated the contract. Using simple logic, the player's baseball value has decreased.

In this particular case, the player's value hasn't decreased. It's simply that Texas wants to undo a "mistake". Now, it's not as if Boston doesn't want to help, and even the player himself wants the deal to be done. This is evidenced of his willingness to take a pay reduction, whatever that value may have been. Did Boston try to take advantage of the situation as the Globe reports simply because it would be a nightmare for Texas if the deal doesn't go through at this point? Maybe. Possibly. Probably more than likely. But, and here is where I question the system now, what if Texas decides to simply bench A-Rod? We both know that wouldn't happen. But to a lesser player it might. The club's penalty is basically that they have to continue to pay whether that player plays or not.

But, what if A-Rod decided not to put forth the effort he has in the past? Or what if being somewhere he really doesn't want to be affects his performance? What I'm driving at is that even with the rule in place that a player's salary can't be decreased because then it might force clubs to make situations miserable for the players and use that to negotiate, players can certainly do the reverse and make situations miserable for the clubs. What are the clubs to do then? They don't seem protected. His baseball value will decrease and when the contract expires he may sign for less elsewhere. All of this could be avoided by allowing this to be done earlier if ALL parties agree.

The rule is a good rule, but it's not complete. It doesn't follow through for the clubs OR the individual players, and that is not fair, for either. It's only protecting the players to a certain extent. Look at Manny Ramirez. Do you think the club wouldn't love to have something in place that allows him to renegotiate a contract at a lower cost elsewhere? That may be a bad example because Manny wants to stay a Red Sox. But, having the option should at least be there. And remember, a player still has to want to do the deal. If a club signs a contract and wants to trade a player for a lower value, they should not be able to do that if the player refuses to take a pay cut. That's a mistake they then have to live with. Just as if a player signs a 5 year contract and the next 2 or 3 years the values for someone like him increases. But, in this case, if the new club, the old club and the player agree, then that should be allowed. It would be good for the sport in the PR department because it would show that teams and players can negotiate and get along and at least give off some perception that it's not all being done for "just the money".

I attended a party of Western Massachusetts bloggers last night, many of whom blog for MassLive. I met Scott, Greg (who organized the party), Jennifer, Catherine, Sarah, The Suki, Rick, another Jennifer, Kristen and Lou, whose blog I can't find at the moment (Lou, if you see this, write me). There were many others whose names I didn't catch (or can't remember), but it was nice meeting all of you, and please take a look at their blogs, just to see that baseball isn't the only thing about which people write.

Brian Schnack writes:

Here’s the ultimate in AL East maneuvers….

In a move sure to escalate the AL East race, the Red Sox announced the surprise signing of 64-year old Soo Yung Kim, a little-used North Korean lefty. Kim has reportedly pitched off and on for 3 decades in the Pyongyang Nuclear Research Eternal Sunshine League, his best year coming in 1989 (3.98 ERA/5 RSAA). Boston GM Theo Epstein, beaming in the lobby of a New Orleans Dunkin’ Donuts, admitted, “He comes with the tools to get a lot of people out. He could be a heck of a closer.”

Following the news of the Red Sox deal, sources close to George Steinbrenner say that the Yankees successfully tested a low-yield hydrogen bomb at their Dominican Republic test facilities. In a hastily-called press conference before a flight to New York, Steinbrenner refused to comment on his moves, saying only, “We are going to win this damn thing. If we don’t, nobody will.”

Chasing the heels of the Alex Rodriguez and Sheffield affairs, the Orioles had just signed Oakland SS Miguel Tejada to a large deal. However, in the fallout of this weekend’s brinksmanship, the Orioles have reportedly scrapped plans to sign Expos OF Vladimir Guerrero and Marlins C Ivan Rodriguez, instead placing their efforts on what owner Peter Angelos calls “Plan Z”. While no movements have been confirmed, reports have placed GM John Andrews in Pakistan and several former Soviet republics in the past weeks.

Capping off a big 48 hours in the AL East, the Devil Rays announced journeyman C Matt Walbeck as hitting instructor.

I guess this is what they refer to as a nuclear winter!

If nothing else, the Red Sox trade, the Sheffield story, the various free agent signings have kept baseball news on the front burner. There aren't too many times that I go to ESPN.com's front page and not see a baseball story up for part of the time. Even my blog traffic hasn't fallen off as much as I expected it would this off season, and this last week has shown a spike in daily traffic. People are in tune with baseball, and that's good for the game.

Jan from Wellesley writes:

Most folks feel this is going to get done anyway, right? So why all the righteous indignation from the Sox camp and some of their fans? So they got spanked for all the tampering in which they've been allowed to engage, so all the favored treatment they've received from their buddy, the Commish, hasn't paid off -- yet. So the great crusader for players' rights, Alex Rodriguez, hasn't been allowed to do what he wants. Imagine that! -- the nerve of anyone trying to stand in the way of the great, magnanimous A-Rod! Again, guys, if this was any other organization, you'd be screaming in outrage over how this deal was allowed to develop. Anyway, just relax -- this is just a minor setback.

Doug's Business of Baseball Weblog has a roundup of links both pro and con on the union's handling of the trade. Doug is quoted in the CNN/SI article:

"The union can't allow this to set a precedent," said Doug Pappas, a New York attorney and an expert in baseball salary structure and economics.

If players could negotiate a reduction in their contracts, he said, "instead of teams eating salaries the way they do currently when they dump salaries in these trades, they'll demand the savings come from the players."

Again, here's where arbitration is rearing its ugly head. The precedent isn't going to be that the union couldn't say no to other renegotiations that came down the line. The precedent would be that in a challenge to the union's no, an arbitrator would conclude that a salary reduction is perfectly in line with the union's decision on Rodriguez. If they never say yes to such a deal, they go into arbitration with the CBA in full force. If they say yes to this deal, they might lose that, and the union won't take that chance.

So I guess the Red Sox are just going to have to muddle through with Manny and Nomar. Poor them.

With all that's been going on today, I'd like to summarize the story and my thoughts for the day (I'm going off to a blogger party, so I'll be out of commission for most of the evening).

• Alex Rodriguez and the Red Sox work out a deal that will allow the Red Sox send Manny Ramirez to Texas in exchange for A-Rod's services.


• The union says no to the deal, based on a pretty clear rule in the CBA that does not allow the value of a contract to be diminished.


• Red Sox fans get very upset by this, go to protest in front of the MLBPA.


• The deadline for the deal is 5 PM, coming up soon, and no side has asked for an extension.

The argument in favor of the MLBPA position is that a rule is a rule, and you should follow the rule. If not, owners will start doing things like alienating players so they want a trade, then restructing their contract so they take less money. Or offering them a trade to a team where they would make less money, but become a starter.

The argument against the MLBPA is that there is non-monetary value to contracts. There is value to playing where you want to play, playing for a good organization, playing in a large market where you might get more endorsements. And all of these should be taken into account.

Well, here's the rule that Steve Bonner sent me:

No Salary Reduction
6.(c) The amount stated in paragraph 2 [i.e., Payment] and in special covenants hereof which is payable to the Player for the period stated in paragraph 1 hereof shall not be diminished by any such assignment, except for failure to report as provided in the next subparagraph (d).

The problem is that there is not a lot of room to finesse this rule. What the people who want the deal to go through would like is for the the MLBPA to take a very loose view of what constitutes salary. If the agreement had contained the word value instead of salary, I think they could have gotten away with it. Rob Manfred talked about potential benefit, but I don't see anything in the rule about potential. This rule is about money, and it's pretty clear that you can't reduce the money a contract is supposed to pay a player. This means, that if Bud takes them to arbitration, he'll lose.

Now, I disagree with the slippery slope argument, simply because players don't have to submit to coersion. No one in this deal is being forced to do anything. And if I'm a player who is told "take this pay cut or we won't trade you," I'll just stay where I am. It's not like the teams have that much power over players today.

No, it comes down to a rule that is too clear to finesse. If the deal had been completed, someone would have noticed that the union allowed the rule to be broken. And other players would have been upset by that. Someone more creative than I might have found a way around it, but it didn't happen.

Update: The deadline is passed and there's no word as of 5:15. Looks like the deal as it was structured is dead.

ESPN.com is citing Jayson Stark as saying that the deal is dead.

The Red Sox and Rangers appear to be at an impasse in their attempts to agree on a restructuring of Alex Rodriguez's contract before today's 5 p.m. ET deadline, thus making a proposed trade between the sides unlikely, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports.

There has been no indication that either Boston or Texas has applied for an extension of their window to negotiate a restructuring that would allow Rodriguez to be traded for Red Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez, Stark reports. The deadline for a deal to be finalized was set by commissioner Bud Selig.

Don't count on arbitration. Like their interference or not, the player's union has the rules on their side, and I have no doubt they would win in arbitration (they also have better lawyers than Selig). So unless their is a miracle in the next hour, Red Sox fans are going to have to put up with Manny and Nomar for another year.

Of course, what's so bad about that? There's been a lot of wasted time and effort put into a deal that wasn't going to improve the team that much. Not much to cry about here.

The Mariners have signed Ichiro to a four-year contract. The way Seattle is going, their fans needed some good news.

I just recieved an e-mail and a comment about my letter to Gene Orza. This is the comment to which I'm referring:

I'm sorry, I disagree with your position on this, Dave. Read Joe Sheehan's column on BP today, I think he hits the nail on the head.
Why should A-Rod be held to a different standard then the owners with whom he's negotiating? He's being asked to forfeit something like 50 million dollars; you think Tom Hicks and John Henry got to where they are today by walking away from that kind of money?
A-Rod shouldn't be allowed to tear up his contract in the same way that Tom Hicks shouldn't be allowed to. Just because things didn't work out quite the way the Rangers wanted doesn't leave them room to just abandon the contract. I don't think it's such a slippery-slope argument that this would drastically change the balance of power in labor negotiations. If A-Rod can negotiate away terms in his contract under pressure from the Red Sox, this gives teams plenty of leverage to demand concessions from players within the contract period. I think that's key here: A-Rod HAS a contract, and he should be protected by it, even from himself.

The Baseball Prospectus Article is here. Joe Sheehan spells out the slippery slope argument:

After reading that e-mail, I started thinking about it, and I realized that this is why the union gets involved. If a player renegotiates his contract to accept less compensation, the benefit of that accrues entirely to the player's owner. All the other issues, the reasons why the player might do this, are tertiary to this one. Alex Rodriguez is essentially giving money back to Tom Hicks, and I do see the interest of other players not having that become standard operating procedure.

If Rodriguez, to use the likely case, drops the player options in the years 2008-10 from his deal and forfeits somewhere between $30 million and $80 million depending on things we can't know, then all players become fair game for this kind of action. The balance of leverage would be shifted in favor of management, which could start pressuring players to lower their compensation in all kinds of situations. Once the first one happens--especially a high-profile one like this--the next one becomes easier, and the next one, until you have a relentless downward pressure not just on the market, but on existing contracts.

We saw this, only with less subtlety, when MLB basically extorted more road trips from the Expos by threatening to go Rachel Phelps on them if they didn't agree to another 22 games in Puerto Rico. Is it that hard to see, if this deal goes through with Rodriguez taking $20 mil., $30 mil., $40 mil. less, a future where teams actively alienate their superstars in an effort to push them into trades in which they have to take less money to get out of town?

I appreciate that there's an argument that Rodriguez would gain some non-monetary benefits by accepting this deal, but I don't think there's any way you can spin things to satisfy the CBA clause. There is no way that giving up as much as $81 million in guaranteed money "actually or potentially provides benefits to the player." This isn't a free agent changing teams for a few dollars more, or you deciding whether to take $70,000 in Denver versus $82,000 in Memphis. This is tens of millions of dollars, and a bellwether for future attempts by management to get out from under contract obligations.

So I think the union is again forced to defend an unpopular, not easily explained position, but one which is ultimately right.

What I find hard to believe in this argument is that A-Rod and his agent would be willing to give up that kind of money. If that is indeed the case, then I agree with the union. But I don't know what the terms of the new contract would be, and I find it really hard to believe that Rodriguez and Boras would agree to such a potentially large loss of money. For all I know, the options could be tied to the free agent market at the time; the Red Sox can only refuse to recognize the option if Alex isn't the most highly paid player at the time. More risk for Alex? Sure. But maybe not unacceptable to him.

I'm not as convinced as Joe and the other commentors yet. I hope we find out what the deal really is so we can know how much A-Rod really wanted to give up.

Thanks to Instapundit, I found this article by Arnold Kling on regulating biotechnology (he uses steroid use in baseball as an example). His point is that regulation of biotech will lead to a world-wide dictatorship:

The Bioethics Council's report has been widely praised, at the symposium and elsewhere, for raising the critical issues and moving the debate forward. I do not see it that way. By concentrating on ends and ignoring means, the Council has ducked what I see as the most fundamental ethical issue of all, which is whether concerns over biotechnology scenarios warrant a worldwide totalitarian dictatorship. If, as I would argue, such a dictatorship would be more dystopian than any of the scenarios that technology might create, then the report is really a cop-out.

Some of the toughest issues in bioethics involve means as well as ends. Will we curb freedom at the level of research, the level of development and marketing, at the level of consumption, or at all three?

Under decentralized decision-making, we are going to continue in the direction of conscious genetic selection, new techniques for physical and mental enhancement, artificial mood creation, and greater health and longevity. We have been doing these things for thousands of years by cruder means, and we are not going to stop now in the absence of a complete social redesign. Such a social redesign strikes me as more frightening than the dangers that it proposes to avoid.

As I've said before, it's not long before a rich ballplayer can afford to have his own private biotech lab in his basement, making performance enhancing drugs tailor-made for him. They won't be detected, because he'll be the only user. People will suspect, but will that suspicion be enough to break down the player's door and look for the lab? I hope not.

Alex Belth (A-Belth?) visited the protest and reports on his blog, Bronx Banter.

Here's the text of the letter I sent to Gene Orza.

Dear Mr. Orza,

I have posted an article on my web log about the A-Rod trade that I think you should read:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/005800.php

I believe the MLBPA is making a mistake in this case. (I'm speaking as a baseball fan, not a Red Sox or Rangers fan). A-Rod moving to Boston will make Alex more popular, which will make the game more popular, which will mean more money, which will mean higer salaries for players in the future. As far as I can tell, salaries are going down right now, and with attendance flat to down over the last few years I can see why. Stopping the trade will not help anyone make more money, but letting it go through, and finding a new level of partnership with owners will. I hope the union will change its mind.

David Pinto

Mike's Baseball Rants questions Bud Selig's motives in the deal as well.

I just have to ask what is it that causes Bud to be so partisan when it comes to the Red Sox. I know that Bud, as a young, unctuous used car salesman in Milwukee, was upset when his beloved Braves moved from Milwaukee and that later spurred him to wrest the Brewers from Seattle. Maybe when he harkens back to the Braves moving, it’s not the move from Milwaukee that so aggrieves him but rather the move from Boston some 13 years earlier.

Perhaps he feels that he has to give back to the Beantown community in the form of Cliff Floyd, Kevin Millar-san, extensions to finalize the Curt Schilling deal, the gentle nudge to ensure that the Red Sox acquire the best shortstop in the game since the second-best one was sticking up the field, and a partridge in a pear tree.

Either that or John Henry has a Paris Hilton video starring Bud. Take your pick.

I think it's pretty clear what's going on. In return for letting Henry buy the Red Sox when there was likely a higher bidder, by letting the Red Sox acquire whomever they want, Bud gets a large market team to support his small market socialism. It's Bud buying power.

The time of the protest has been moved to noon. (See Boston Dirt Dogs.) If anyone can get me video, I'll be happy to post it and host it. If you have a handheld device that can take pictures, e-mail them to me and I'll post them. If you want to write a report on the protest, I'll post it. My bandwidth is cheap, load me up.

It's my opinion that the MLBPA is the greatest labor union the world has ever seen. Most labor unions set up systems that insure the continued employment of their least talented workers, while limiting the advancement of their most talented. The MLBPA has done just the opposite. They set up parameters for salary growth and negotiation, but how much you make depends in great part on how well you perform. They protect players rights extremely well, make sure they have generous benefits and proper legal counsel. It should be the model for how all unions operate.

Until now.

The union is blocking the A-Rod for Manny deal.

Rob Manfred, baseball's top labor lawyer, challenged the union's interpretation.

"The basic agreement contains a rule that requires any special covenant to be an actual or potential benefit to the player," Manfred said. "In a situation like the current situation, where there was a restructuring, where the player was getting something and the club was getting something, Gene Orza is not the final arbitrator on whether the restructuring provides an actual or potential benefit to the player. The commissioner currently is considering his legal options in consultation with the two teams."

While no one detailed the agreement between Rodriguez and the Red Sox, Boston president Larry Lucchino said the union proposed "radical changes."

The agreement called for some salary to be reduced and some to be deferred in exchange for giving Rodriguez the right to become a free agent earlier in the deal, a high-ranking baseball official said on the condition of anonymity.

Currently, Rodriguez can end the contract after the 2007 season. He also can end it after 2008 or 2009 unless he gets an annual increase from $27 million to either $32 million or $1 million above the largest salary of any position player.

"It is a sad day when the players' association thwarts the will of its members," Lucchino said. "The players' association asserts that it supports individual negotiations, freedom of choice and player mobility. However, in this high-profile instance, their action contradicts this and is contrary to the desires of the player. We appreciate the flexibility and determination Alex and Cynthia Rodriguez have shown in their effort to move to Boston and the Red Sox."

That's not the way Orza saw it.

"The principle involved is a transcendent one, affecting all of Alex's fellow players," he said. "To his credit, Alex, from the outset, recognized this."

Gordon Edes in the Boston Globe has the real money quote from Orza.

"The issue continues to be the essential difference between restructuring and reducing," Orza said when reached by phone last night. "We don't authorize reducing, we authorize restructuring. There has to be some added value to the player."

In other words, you can only renegotiate contracts up. A player (like Frank Thomas) can bitch and moan about his long term contract being too small, and that's just fine. But if a highly overpaid player is willing to take a pay cut to play where he wants to play, that's taboo.

What is the union thinking? That teams are just going to start tearing up contracts and forcing players to take less money? They don't need to do that, since no one has signed an outrageous contract since Jason Giambi. Look what Tejada got, look what Sheffield got, look what Vlad is not getting! The market has changed. This deal is a great example of what player/owner relations should be; everyone working together for the good of each other. The union stepping in like this will just continue the rancor between owners and players.

And they've gotten the fans hopping mad, also. Boston Dirt Dogs is trying to organize a rally against the union for today at 11:30 (it says PM on their site, but they really mean AM) in NY at the MLBPA headquarters. They also list Gene Orza's office number, fax number and e-mail if you would like to make your opinion known on the deal. I would encourage every baseball fan in the NY area to go, including Yankees fans. The union has overstepped its bounds today, and they need to know the fans care.

I had a lot of respect for Fehr, Orza and their colleagues. A lot of that went out the window today.

William Kelly alerted me to the latest Rob Neyer column, which has its most interesting material at the bottom:

Pete Rose has a new book coming out next month. Jan. 8, to be precise. Now, you might ask, "Why Jan. 8? Wouldn't the publisher want the book out before Christmas?" On Tuesday, somebody asked me that exactly.

I gave a vague answer. Then I looked at my calendar, and it all became very clear to me.

Rose's publisher has embargoed the book, releasing absolutely nothing to anybody before the official "pub date." This is extremely unusual. Publishers generally send out scads of review copies weeks or even months before publication, to generate publicity. Even when they hold the review copies, in the case of a book that's got some surprises, those surprises are leaked in some fashion; again, for the sake of publicity. But as far as I know, nobody's seen this book except the publishers (Rodale Press).

Why so hush-hush? And why Jan. 8? Like I said, it all made sense when I looked at my calendar. Rose wouldn't be publishing a book unless he'd cleared the contents and its publication date with the Commissioner's Office. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that Rose will finally admit that he did wrong, that he did bet on baseball and he's really, really sorry. Really.

Mark your calendars.

David's Ultimate Baseball Blog is the new blog on the block. Stop by and check out his analysis of the Boston Red Sox.

The Cub Reporter has an interview with Dave Kaval, who is starting up an independent league in California. The model for this league will be a bit different, where the league owns all the teams.

TCR: You mentioned single-entity ownership. Does that mean that, rather than each team having owners, the league will have investors who have a piece of each team?

DK: No, there'll be owners, it's just that they'll own the whole league. Rather than owning the team in, say, Long Beach, they own a piece of all the teams. For them, it's a little bit of a portfolio strategy -- they have multiple franchises, so if they do all right in three places, and not so well in three others, overall they're still doing pretty decently.

TCR: So it's minimizing risk, in many ways.

DK: Yes. And, I think the control aspect is very, very important. We can manage the product in all the different locations and make sure the experience for the fan is the best that it can be in all locations. In a franchise-oriented league, the individual owners are going to put the kind of product out there that they want. Hopefully it's great in all locations, but more often than not -- in a lot of these leagues you have up to 25% of the ownership groups that are undercapitalized, aren't really running it like a business. In those cases, it's not a good fan experience, and that hurts the whole league. And then those teams start moving around, playing musical chairs, and that hurts the cities. It creates a lot of turbulence and ill will. We feel that starting anew, starting with single-entity ownership, having a little more control -- in the early years especially -- is going to prevent a lot of that.

TCR: Do you see single-entity ownership as a long-term business model, or is it simply a way to provide stability at the inception of the league, and will you be looking to eventually sell the teams to individual owners?

DK: We see single-entity as a long term business model. We have no plans to sell off individual franchises. However, we would consider selling the league as a whole. We feel that the benefits of single entity -- stability, enhanced revenue opportunities, aligned incentives, other entertainment options -- make such a framework superior to the traditional franchise set up especially for municipalities and fans.

It's an interesting idea. It makes one wonder however, if the league will move the better players to the better markets, as happened when multiple major league teams were owned by one person in the 1890's. I do hope it works out, however. The independent league games I've attended have been a lot of fun. It will be a great addition to the California baseball landscape.

It's pouring here, and the raindrops has moved to a new location. Stop by and check it out.

Jim Conrey interviews John Sickels about his new book on Bob Feller.

Dan Guando was turned the counter and sent his congratulations:

I was #400,000, it appears!

Congratulations on the milestone! I read your site everyday, and think you are one of the most sound and informed analysts writing today. I look forward to seeing you hit the One Million mark!

Thanks very much, Dan!

Reggie Sanders has become THE fill in free agent. Need a right fielder? Reggie's available. This will be his 7th team in 7 years, the last four signing as a free agent. When the players won the right to free agency in the 1970's, Oakland owner Charlie Finely wanted a deal where all players got one-year contracts and became free agents every year. He saw (and so did Marvin Miller) that a small supply of free agents every year would drive salaries up. But if all players were available, if you didn't get Reggie Jackson, you could always get Dave Winfield or Dave Parker. But Finely was obnoxious and disliked, and the ballplayers got the model they wanted.

I should really take a look at the length of free agent contracts and see if they have fallen in recent years. It could be that MLB has realized that if they keep contract length short, they keep the market flooded and salaries lower.

This deal appears to be over due to Omar Vizquel's knee. I think this is a good thing for the Mariners. I'm not sure why they would want an old Vizquel over a younger (and improving) Guillen. Sure, the Mariners lost out on Tejada, but Vizquel is no where near Miguel anymore. Guillen appears to me to be the best option they have at the moment. He's signed, he's not making a lot of money and I don't understand why they are so hot to get rid of him.

Today is the 100th anniversary of the Wright Brother's first flight at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. The Wright Flyer was the first plastic model I ever assembled, back when I was a Cub Scout and we were doing a project on flight. The Wright's invention eventually led to major league baseball on the west coast:

Because baseball teams must travel to one another's ballparks, the distance between teams has been limited by available means of transportation. Prior to the 1950s, teams traveled mainly by bus and train, but during that decade, air travel made it possible for teams to travel from coast to coast in less than a day. In the past, distance also limited team location to densely populated cities, where a sufficient number of fans could reach the ballpark by mass transit.

And so it makes me especailly proud that unique visitor 400,000 will view this site today. (Scroll down to the counter, and if you are #400,000, let me know). I want to thank all my readers for making this site so successful.

I should have seen this coming. (Hat tip to Instapundit.)

Edward Cossette at Bambino's Curse is counting his chickens. He links to the Boston Dirt Dogs, who say the deal is done.

(Dirt Dogs, we all love your site, but how about putting permalinks on your articles so 10 years from now people can easily see how right or wrong you were? If Peter Gammons says a trade is going to happen and it doesn't, it's there on the internet for all the world to see forever. You guys look pretty internet savvy, you should be able to figure this out!)

I'll believe it when I see the press conference.

Carl Everett has moved out of the country and will be roaming the outfield for the Montreal Expos next year. Actually, it's probably a good place for him; Frank Robinson is probably the perfect manager for Carl. Everett also had 21 win shares last year to Guerrero's 18 (Guerrero did play less). The Expos didn't improve themselves with Everett, but short term the have certainly blunted the loss of Vlad.

The always excellent Only Baseball Matters appears to be back in business. Stop by and welcome John back to the baseball blogging world.

I almost fell off my chair laughing when I read this. I just want to know what Mr. Drysdale is going to do with the $750,000.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays tried to put the best face on their weekend moves:

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays organization had a pretty good day Sunday. One club official labeled it among the best in franchise history. Rays general manager Chuck LaMar agreed.

"It was a pretty big day for us," LaMar said from New Orleans during the third day of baseball's annual winter meetings.

LaMar offered contracts to two free agents - right fielder Jose Cruz Jr. and shortstop Rey Sanchez (both deals won't be finalized until they pass physicals this week).

He traded for two more, getting third baseman Geoff Blum from Houston for relief pitcher Brandon Backe and lefty pitcher Mark Hendrickson for Joe Kennedy, who began 2003 as the Rays' No. 1 pitcher before an eight-game losing streak sent him to the bullpen.

And LaMar had a meeting with officials from the Los Angeles Dodgers concerning a possible trade for Aubrey Huff, last year's team MVP who is arbitration eligible.

"We wouldn't be doing the job if we didn't listen to offers for some of our players," LaMar said. "We have no intention of trading Aubrey Huff. The Dodgers called, we had a meeting, but we hope Aubrey Huff is in a Devil Ray uniform for years to come."

Why was this such a good weekend? Blum is not a good offensive player. Sanchez, over the last few years, has only been better than Rey Ordonez. (Someone should do a commerical for GM's: If you like Rey Ordonez, you'll The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are putting the best face they can on their moves over the weekendlove Rey Sanchez!) Cruz is a decent player, but he's not a franchise player. Hendrickson, as the DRays point out, was better on the road than he was in Skydome, but Tropicanna field isn't exactly a pitcher's park.

All-in-all, I don't think they've made the team that much better. And when you consider that their four division opponents have all improved dramatically, the DRays are facing a situation next year where they could improve and still lose more games than they did in 2003. They need to do a lot more than pick up marginal players to keep up with the rest of the division.

The Baltimore Orioles got off their opening salvo today in their bid to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, signing Miguel Tejada to a six-year deal. It also looks like they are after Ivan Rodriguez and Vlad Guerrero. This could be huge. Last year, Cruz, Fordyce and Gibbons combined for 33 win shares. The three free agents they are going after combined for 66. That's 11 more wins for the Orioles, and that's assuming they replace Gibbons with Vlad. More likely, Gibbons will fill in another week spot in the lineup. Eleven wins takes the Orioles up to 82, not enough to catch the Blue Jays, but enough to be a competitve team that will be fun to watch. And Vlad and Tejada did not have their best years. Could be a few more wins there if they recover.

Looks like the AL East is shaping up to have four very good teams. Could be a very interesting race.

The Kevin Brown deal is done, and it looks like Sheffield will be joining the team as well (on the Boss' terms). For all the rending of clothes by Yankees fans and analysts, NY is going to put a very good team on the field next year. I can't say I like the way they've built this team, and I think long term they are going in the wrong direction, but for 2004 I like them:

• The only bad offensive position on the club will be third base. If Alfonso Soriano is your 2nd worst offensive player, you're going to score some runs.


• Brown, Mussina, Vazquez is better than Martinez, Schilling, Lowe.

On the minus side, they no longer have any depth on offense and the fielding still stinks. We'll see what Cashman does to address those issues before the season starts.

The Red Sox have added an excellent closer to their staff with the signing of Keith Foulke to a three-year contract, worth between 20 and 26 million dollars.

"We couldn't be happier to have added Keith Foulke and Curt Schilling in the same offseason," Epstein said. "We've added two of the best pitchers in baseball. That was one of the weaknesses of our club last year."

The A's will now go for their fourth closer in four years. All have done well for the A's without costing them a lot of money. I've always suspected it wasn't that hard to find a closer, and Beane seems to be proving that right.

It's interesting to note that if you look at pitchers with the lowest ERA since 1999, and set the minimum at 400 innings, Foulke is second to Pedro Martinez in the majors (Pedro 2.10, Foulke 2.48). This is a really good pitcher.

The Sox have also taken away the excuse of "we don't know our roles" from the rest of the bullpen. This should be a hugely improved pitching staff over last year.

The first big deal of the weekend was J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero of the Cardinals being traded to the Atlanta Braves for three pitchers, including Jason Marquis.

I think this deal will go down in history as Drew for Adam Wainwright, the minor league pitcher included in the deal. Drew is a very good player; he hits for a good average, draws a lot of walks and hits for some power. His main problem is that he's never been able to play more than 135 games in a season. A healthy Drew will be an adequate replacement for Sheffield in right. Marrero is someone who showed promise early, but health problems have never allowed him to reach his potential. I don't see him being a big contributor to the Braves.

The Cardinals are talking about Marquis joining the rotation. It's interesting, that if you look at his career stats as a starter and reliever, he's pitched better as a reliever, but has an ERA that's one run higher coming out of the bullpen. Jason's strikeouts are okay, his walks are okay, and his HR allowed are okay. He's still young, so we could see a big improvement, but if you can't pitch well with Atlanta, one has to wonder.

I do like Ray King. I think he's a very good setup man, and has perfromed much better in the majors than Marquis has. But the one to be excited about is Wainwright. In 539 minor league innings, he's struck out 560 while walking only 163. And he's only allowed 29 HR. So far, he's done the three things a pitcher has to do well extremely well. And he's only 22. I think the Cardinals have a real winner here.

I was all over the place since yesterday, taking my daughter to an audition, going to New York for a surprise party for my college roommate Dory (as you can see, he was very surprised):

I guess some interesting things happened while I was away, not least of which was the capture of Saddam Hussein. To all my military readers, great job! More baseball to come.

The Toronto Blue Jays have signed pitcher Miguel Batista to a three-year deal. I like the fact that Geoff Baker throws a good stat into the story:

The Dominican-born Batista was a relative unknown before joining the D-Backs in 2001. Last season, he went 10-9 with a 3.54 earned run average, but was surprisngly effective on artificial turf and also had an impressive strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 142-to-60.

This was something new for Batista, as he had a 1.4 K/BB ratio in his career through 2002. Still, he pitched well in a tough ballpark last year, allowing only 13 HR all year, and four on the road in 105 innings. Riccardi is doing a good job of improving the rotation without busting his budget.

Miguel Tejada thinks he'll be signed over the weekend, but didn't say by whom:

"My agent has been exchanging concrete offers with the teams that have showed interest," Tejada told The Associated Press in a telephone interview from his home in Santo Domingo.

"This weekend could be decisive for my future. I hope to have a firm contract, or at least be close to signing, during the weekend."

The baseball winter meetings begin Friday in New Orleans and go through Monday.

Tejada said baseball owners "know what I can do on the field and how much I'm worth. I'm not worried in that sense."

So it seems a few teams are bidding on Miguel. This, the Sheffield debacle, and a number of other signings (especially Pettitte) makes me think the collusion argument doesn't have a lot of merit. Free agents are moving to other teams, and the lower salaries seem to be more a reflection of the market place (less money) and the supply (over 200 free agents available).

It's easy to miss out on what other teams are doing when all the attention seems to be focused on the A-Rod deal and the Yankees moves. But San Diego signed their first Japanese player yesterday, Akinori O(h)tsuka. In 350 2/3 innings in Japan, he's struck out 474 while walking 117. You have to like those kind of numbers. And he's only walked 8 batters in the last two years. Nomo with control.

This may be the best move I've seen all winter for the Yankees. Newsday is reporting that the Yankees have traded Jeff Weaver and 2 minor leaguers to the LA Dodgers for Kevin Brown. This does two positive things for the Yankees:

1. It gives the Yankees a quality replacement for Andy Pettitte.


2. It rids the Yankees of Jeff Weaver.

However, it continues to make the Yankees more right-handed and older, not a good thing for a Bronx team (see the 1980's).

The Yankees now have a solid top three starters in Vazquez, Mussina and Brown. I'd argue they have three #1 starters to the Red Sox two. Will Brown be healthy? I assume he has to/had to pass a physical, and he was one of the top pitchers in the NL last year. Just getting rid of Weaver makes the deal look real good to me.

Weaver was not cut out for Yankee Stadium, and I suspect he'll do better playing at Chavez Ravine. But on the face of it, the deal is a big downgrade for the Dodgers. We'll see if they spend the money they saved wisely.

I didn't get a chance to comment on this, but the Transaction Guy has the goods on Guardado signing with the Mariners.

It appears that Andy Pettitte has finalized a deal with the Houston Astros. The Yankees did try to keep him:

Pettitte made his decision after weighing a new offer from the Yankees on Wednesday night, another baseball source said, also on the condition of anonymity.

The Yankees' offered the left-handed starter $39 million for three years, about $3 million more annually than Houston. But the Astros play near Pettitte's hometown of Deer Park, apparently an important factor.

One thing about free agency that seems to escape critics of the system is that players don't always go for the most money. For the most part, the differences in money offered are small; players often have personal reasons outweigh the finanical considerations.

As for what this means for the clubs, I've always found Pettitte an interesting pitcher. For his career, he's allowed a .330 OBA, but his effective OBA is much lower, since he removes lots of batters through pickoffs and inducing double plays. In the last three seasons, he's also greatly reduced the number of walks he issues and increased the number of strikeouts. His HR rate will probably go up with the Astros due to the park configuration, but he should still be a winner with that team.

The Yankees, on the other hand, are now short a starter. There is a rumor that the Yankees are about to trade Jeff Weaver for Kevin Brown, but that story also seems to have disappeared from ESPN's web site, so I don't know how true it is. Weaver for Brown would be a great deal for the Yankees (Weaver for a box of baseballs would be a great deal for the Yankees), but it would continue to make them too right-handed and old.

The loss of Pettitte, the problems with the Sheffield deal seem to be signaling a Yankees front office in turmoil. That's good for all the teams that are seriously trying to compete against them over the next few years. If I were the Orioles, I'd wrap up Guerrero as quick as I can to prevent the Yankees from changing their mind on Sheffield.

Rich Lederer has a review of the 2004 Bill James Handbook, with lots of great tidbits pulled from the pages. I would like to correct one misconception Rich has, however:

The Handbook is unlike The Bill James Abstracts from 1977-1988, the Bill James Baseball Books from 1990-1992, and The Bill James Player Ratings Books from 1993-1995. The major difference between this book and the others is the amount of commentary from Bill James. The Handbook has a grand total of five pages written by James whereas the others are full of his comments, evaluations, and stories.

This book replaced the Major League Handbook published for many years by STATS, Inc., and is not meant to replace the old Abstracts or other research books by Bill James.

The Detroit Tigers have signed Fernando Vina, and they seem to be excited about it:

While other teams are cutting payroll, the Tigers are willing to spend this offseason.

"There's no question we're in a mode that we can be very active and aggressive in our conversations with agents and other teams," Tigers president Dave Dombrowski said. "It's great. It's an exciting time for our organization. We're looking to upgrade at second base, shortstop, outfield, starting pitching."

He failed to add first base, thirdbase, catcher, relief pitching and bat boy. :-) Kidding aside, Vina is not going to improve the team much. He's coming off his worse season in a long time. He posted 5 wins shares in about 1/2 a season. Warren Morris posted 7 win shares in about 2/3 of a season. Seems like they are pretty even, and Warren is five years younger. Seems they could have found a better way to spend the $3 million that would have actually upgraded the team.

The Braves signed former Ranger John Thomson to a two year deal for $7 million. This AP story on ESPN.com promotes his signing as a replacement for Greg Maddux.

Please.

Thomson's strength is that he doesn't walk very many. He does, however, give up a lot of HR and not many strikeouts. Now, if I remember Greg Maddux, he didn't walk anybody, struck out a decent amount of batters, and seldom gave up a HR. Thomson is a guy who has spent most of his career in Denver and Dallas, yet has given up as many HR on the road as he has at home. I don't see a lot of redeeming qualities here. The Braves have a great pitching program, but they usually start with players who have talent. I would rather have paid for another year of Maddux.

The Anaheim Angels have signed Bartolo Colon to a 4-year, $48 million contract. Bill Stoneman tells us why:

The Angels are hoping one of the times he will be pitching is deep into October. Even with one of the finest bullpens in the major leagues, the Angels finished sixth in ERA last year, third in their division. It was while watching the Florida Marlins dispatch the New York Yankees in the World Series two months ago that Stoneman cemented his strategy of concentrating on arms.

"If you don't have pitching, particularly starting pitching, it's so difficult to get into the playoffs and even when you're in, to win," Stoneman said. "Those of us who paid attention to the Marlins saw that. It wasn't just their starting pitching, but those young starters really did the job for them."

One of those starters in particular, Josh Beckett, had a fastball so electric most hitters looked baffled against him. By adding Escobar and Colon, Stoneman hopes to build a rotation with so much raw power that opponents will have uncomfortable series against Anaheim week in and week out.

Colon certainly can get the ball to the catcher's mitt quickly, with a high-90s fastball. He's also one of the most durable pitchers in the game, having spent all of three weeks on the disabled list in his eight-year career. Colon pitched complete games in four of his six September starts for the Chicago White Sox last season.

The thing that bothers me about Colon, however, is his falloff in strikeouts over the last two seasons. Through the 2001 season, Colon averaged 7.86 K per 9; 2002-2002 that was 6.10. That strikes me as a pitcher on his way down. But at the same time, his ERA has dropped from 4.09 to 3.41 over the same time periods. A thrower becoming a pitcher? Better defense behind him? It's hard to say. I remember sitting behind home plate at Fenway a few years ago as Colon matched up with Pedro. He threw every bit as hard as Pedro did. The difference that struck me was that Pedro had better control of his pitches. Pedro could put his out pitch exactly where he wanted. Colon sometimes missed, and it would result in big hits. Maybe Colon has improved that part of the game.

It's good to see the new owner of the Angels actively trying to win. It appears trades may be in the offing for position players coming from the overstocked starting staff. I don't know how much better the Angels are going to be, but it's clear they are not being neglected.

The Phillies look like they are going to sign Tim Worrell as their new setup man. Worrell did a great job in the role for the Giants in 2001 and 2002, and will return to that role after being the closer for the Giants in 2003. The Phillies were 19th in the majors in save percentage last year, but with the Big W's finishing games, I expect that will improve significantly.

Unlike the Brewers, Tigers and Pirates before them, the Phillies appear to be serious about combining a new ballpark with a winning team. With Atlanta losing two key offensive players in Sheffield and Lopez and with Florida losing one in I-Rod, the Phillies are looking more and more like the favorites in the NL East.

Update: In one of the comments below, John Y. writes:

I think Ed Wade wants to provide a team that Mr. Ed could manage to first place.

Mr. Ed, as it turns out, was a pretty good manager:

081- Leo Durocher Meets Mister Ed

Original Airdate: September 29, 1963

Ed's favorite team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, aren't doing so hot. Ed, being the baseball expert that he is, calls up Leo Durcocher and gives him tips on how to help his players. Leo doesn't pay much attention to him at first, but realizes Ed's tips are right. Thinking it's Wilbur who had called him, Leo invites Wilbur down to the field to give him some more tips. Unfortunatly, Carol and the Addisons want to go to Palm Springs. Ed fixes that, by giving Carol a phony weather report for Palm Springs. Ed and Wilbur travel to Dodger's stadium to give some tips.

Classic Scene:

Ed hits a homerun! He runs the bases and slides into home.. too bad he missed second base.
Worth Mentioning...

This is often concidered to many fans to be the best Mister Ed episode.
This is Addison's final episode. He died soon after of leukemia at age 67.

Maybe Ed Wade should hire Wilbur Wood as his pitching coach. :-)

Alex Belth has another in his excellent series of interviews, this time with Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated. I thought this exchange was very telling:

BB: So you didn’t find too many reporters challenging players about how to play the game properly?

Verducci: No, not at all. But what did surprise me when I first got in this business was how many people who didn’t like sports that much—or maybe they became jaded by the sport—were covering sports. I mean the job requires so much time and effort I don’t see how you can do it without loving it. Maybe I was naïve, but when I first got in the business, I encountered people who were just punching the clock and forcing it. They were doing it because it was a job not because they liked it.

There's a lot of good writers of blogs who I bet would love to be on the beat. If papers are looking for writers who love the sport, look no futher than the internet!

Plus, Alex has more on Sheffield, Vlad and the Yankees.

I find it interesting that the supposed done deal between the Yankees and Gary Sheffield has not been consummated yet. It may be that the Braves move to get a compensation pick has put the deal on hold. But I also suspect that there are other forces at work as well.

This is pure speculation, but if I were Brian Cashman, I'd be pushing George real hard not to make this deal, but instead sign Vlad Guerrero to a long term deal. I'd remind George of the difference in age between the two and the probability of decline in offense in much lower with Vlad. I'd point out that he's a better defensive player (and Yankees lack of defense). I'd point out that the team is getting too old, and you need a young stud to get off the treadmill. I would be fighting tooth and nail to get Steinbrenner to change his mind.

Something like that may be going on. The Cashman/Michael part of the Yankees operation is probably thinking this way. Whether they can convince the boss is another story.

Matt Welch, one of my favorite bloggers, offers this review of Moneyball in Reason Online.

Which may sound like evidence for Richard Griffin’s description of sabermetrics as a "cult," but that charge misses a crucial point. The analytic revolution thrived precisely because from its early days people argued passionately with each other. As important, they yielded when the better research or theory won. Much of the parlor reaction to Moneyball has focused on questions such as: What happens when the rest of baseball catches up to Beane’s fanatical emphasis on on-base percentage? And why on earth would he give away his trade secrets?

The first question ignores the distorting effects of Lewis’ book. He chose to highlight Oakland’s strong emphasis on offensive patience, partly because it’s important and partly because it presented to him cerebral underdog subjects such as castoff catcher turned starting first baseman Scott Hatteberg and submarine pitcher Chad Bradford. Sabermetrics at heart is about analytical thinking, not one particular statistical category. Perhaps the most significant organizational change the A’s have implemented over the years is a scientific physical program to prevent what the stat geeks have long identified as a crucial problem: arm injuries to pitchers. Critics of Beane and Moneyball say both are piggybacking on the success of Oakland’s three great young pitchers (Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder), but it’s entirely plausible that one or more of the three would have blown out their elbows in nonsabermetric organizations.

It's being reported that Kaz Matsui has agreed to sign with the Mets. It's not a done deal, as Matsui has to undergo a physical, but things are looking up in Queens.

In nine years with the Seibu Lions of the Pacific League, Matsui batted over .300 seven times, ripped at least 20 homers four times and won a quartet of Gold Gloves. He also possesses blazing speed (Ichiro Suzuki swears Matsui's faster than he is) and is extremely durable (he's played in 1,143 consecutive games).

Matsui's announcement also officially shifts Jose Reyes to second base, a move that some skeptics have questioned. The move is indeed a risk, but it also gives the Mets the potential to sport the game's most athletic and dynamic double-play combination. The duo also will be linked at the top of the lineup, giving the club back-to-back switch-hitting speedsters.

Of course, it would be better if in addition to their speed, both got on base. I think Kaz will do alright, but Reyes needs to do much better than he did in 2003. Still, defense up the middle should be better, and that will help Glavine. I also wonder if a rivalry will develop between Hideki and Kaz, where they push each other to be the top Matsui.

Update: the raindrops doesn't like the deal at all.

Unlike the Braves, the A's did offer three of their free agents arbitration, one of them being Miguel Tejada. So all Miguel has to do to stay with the A's (for at least one more season) is accept arbitration. On the plus side for Miguel, if he accepts, he'll probably make more money this year than he would in the first year of a long term contract. It would also give him a chance to win the series with this particular set of core players. On the plus side for the A's, if Tejada refuses arbitration, they get a draft pick. If he accepts, they don't have a long term contract over their heads if Tejada's 2003 falloff wasn't a fluke. We'll see what happens.

The Atlanta Braves failed to offer arbitration to Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez and Greg Maddux. While I understand they didn't want to run the risk of these players accepting arbitration, in the case of Sheffield at least, the Braves are giving up any compensation they would be due these players. The Braves lose a lot of offense in Sheffield and Lopez. It would be good if they could get a couple of draft picks to rebuild that in the future.

The Braves remain pretty strong up the middle with Furcal, Gile and A. Jones, and Chipper still can generate some offense. The Braves will be good in 2004, but it looks less likely that they'll run away with the division.

I haven't posted much today, because I've been working on making my probabilistic range tables sortable. This has been fun for me, as I've learned how to write scripts in Python, which will open up lots of chances for me to do interactive projects on this web site. As a sample of what I'm trying to do, click for the chart of probabilistic range for right fieders. Click on any column heading to sort by that column.

After very little snowfall yesterday, we got 10 inches overnight. Phoebe had a good time playing in her first big snowfall.

Update: If you are having trouble seeing the movie, you can download the latest version of QuckTime here.

Here's the table for MLB right fielders, minimum 200 balls in play when they're on the field:

Right Fielders

Fielder	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Tom Goodwin	13.2	0.061	17.0	0.078	0.01722
Eli Marrero	25.7	0.074	30.0	0.086	0.01234
Scott Podsednik	26.6	0.096	30.0	0.109	0.01220
Shannon Stewart	29.5	0.078	34.0	0.090	0.01207
Jason Michaels	13.8	0.067	16.0	0.077	0.01070
Marcus Thames	27.3	0.055	32.0	0.064	0.00935
Brian Buchanan	30.6	0.078	34.0	0.087	0.00875
Robby Hammock	10.9	0.045	13.0	0.054	0.00872
Jeff DaVanon	123.4	0.075	137.0	0.084	0.00830
Craig Wilson	71.1	0.085	78.0	0.093	0.00826
Jason Conti	22.9	0.079	25.0	0.087	0.00712
Michael Restovich	16.6	0.049	19.0	0.056	0.00707
Troy O'Leary	38.6	0.076	42.0	0.083	0.00675
Damian Rolls	41.5	0.061	46.0	0.068	0.00656
Michael Ryan	24.2	0.083	26.0	0.090	0.00617
Dustan Mohr	149.8	0.081	161.0	0.087	0.00609
Ryan Ludwick	47.0	0.072	51.0	0.078	0.00608
Orlando Palmeiro	86.0	0.087	91.0	0.092	0.00500
Gary Matthews Jr.	44.0	0.073	47.0	0.078	0.00495
David Dellucci	87.8	0.069	94.0	0.074	0.00485
Jose Cruz	317.2	0.079	336.0	0.083	0.00466
Eric Owens	52.0	0.074	55.0	0.078	0.00428
Austin Kearns	90.8	0.075	96.0	0.079	0.00427
Shane Spencer	74.0	0.075	78.0	0.079	0.00402
Kevin Millar	15.9	0.056	17.0	0.060	0.00384
Jacque Jones	22.1	0.087	23.0	0.090	0.00348
Raul Mondesi	262.4	0.072	274.0	0.075	0.00319
Alex Escobar	57.0	0.084	59.0	0.087	0.00288
Magglio Ordonez	305.4	0.077	316.0	0.080	0.00269
Ruben Sierra	16.2	0.056	17.0	0.058	0.00268
Juan Rivera	23.9	0.059	25.0	0.062	0.00263
Kerry Robinson	54.4	0.084	56.0	0.086	0.00253
Ichiro Suzuki	330.1	0.080	340.0	0.082	0.00239
Richard Hidalgo	268.7	0.077	277.0	0.079	0.00238
Ben Grieve	16.4	0.058	17.0	0.060	0.00221
Andres Torres	20.3	0.063	21.0	0.065	0.00214
Jeromy Burnitz	78.8	0.073	81.0	0.075	0.00206
Craig Monroe	70.3	0.074	72.0	0.075	0.00178
Jose Guillen	178.8	0.072	183.0	0.074	0.00170
Raul Gonzalez	39.9	0.064	41.0	0.065	0.00168
Juan Encarnacion	324.5	0.080	329.0	0.081	0.00111
Brady Clark	128.4	0.085	130.0	0.086	0.00107
Vladimir Guerrero	214.0	0.074	217.0	0.075	0.00105
Jody Gerut	123.4	0.072	125.0	0.072	0.00095
Michael Cuddyer	23.7	0.057	24.0	0.058	0.00082
Melvin Mora	20.7	0.063	21.0	0.064	0.00077
Jayson Werth	21.8	0.068	22.0	0.069	0.00077
Sammy Sosa	209.5	0.065	212.0	0.066	0.00077
Eric Valent	19.8	0.084	20.0	0.085	0.00066
Laynce Nix	60.5	0.078	61.0	0.079	0.00059
Dee Brown	39.8	0.100	40.0	0.101	0.00059
Bobby Kielty	142.0	0.067	143.0	0.067	0.00046
Danny Bautista	89.5	0.063	90.0	0.064	0.00038
Gabe Kapler	56.7	0.058	57.0	0.058	0.00030
Brian L. Hunter	17.9	0.086	18.0	0.086	0.00027
Reggie Sanders	154.8	0.072	155.0	0.072	0.00010
Rene Reyes	40.0	0.078	40.0	0.078	-0.00003
Bobby Abreu	304.3	0.073	304.0	0.073	-0.00007
Terrence Long	133.2	0.080	133.0	0.080	-0.00013
Bobby Higginson	249.5	0.075	249.0	0.075	-0.00014
Michael Tucker	82.2	0.071	82.0	0.071	-0.00020
John Vander Wal	161.0	0.079	160.0	0.078	-0.00050
Carl Everett	57.4	0.069	57.0	0.068	-0.00052
Matt Lawton	17.2	0.051	17.0	0.050	-0.00064
Ruben Mateo	76.8	0.078	76.0	0.077	-0.00081
Roger Cedeno	202.7	0.079	200.0	0.078	-0.00105
Trot Nixon	234.6	0.071	231.0	0.070	-0.00109
Ron Calloway	72.4	0.068	71.0	0.066	-0.00133
Jermaine Dye	104.2	0.066	102.0	0.065	-0.00141
Quinton McCracken	32.9	0.055	32.0	0.053	-0.00146
Xavier Nady	174.9	0.067	171.0	0.066	-0.00150
J.D. Drew	103.0	0.082	101.0	0.080	-0.00161
Larry Walker	236.3	0.066	230.0	0.064	-0.00176
Jason Tyner	30.9	0.088	30.0	0.085	-0.00248
Reed Johnson	92.3	0.054	88.0	0.052	-0.00252
Timo Perez	17.7	0.075	17.0	0.072	-0.00290
Mark Sweeney	12.6	0.060	12.0	0.057	-0.00304
Eduardo Perez	104.0	0.084	100.0	0.080	-0.00322
Jeffrey Hammonds	20.1	0.059	19.0	0.056	-0.00325
Aubrey Huff	198.8	0.075	190.0	0.072	-0.00334
Brandon Berger	16.7	0.081	16.0	0.078	-0.00336
Brad Wilkerson	20.0	0.067	19.0	0.063	-0.00343
Matt Stairs	59.0	0.054	55.0	0.050	-0.00365
Aaron Guiel	193.4	0.079	184.0	0.075	-0.00386
Karim Garcia	86.6	0.066	81.0	0.061	-0.00427
Gary Sheffield	300.3	0.075	283.0	0.071	-0.00436
Adam Piatt	11.2	0.044	10.0	0.039	-0.00454
Jay Gibbons	304.6	0.076	284.0	0.071	-0.00514
Frank Catalanotto	60.9	0.056	55.0	0.051	-0.00544
Desi Relaford	25.7	0.082	24.0	0.077	-0.00558
Tim Salmon	145.5	0.076	133.0	0.070	-0.00652
Jason Jones	26.1	0.084	24.0	0.077	-0.00664
Juan Gonzalez	109.2	0.075	99.0	0.068	-0.00696
Orlando Merced	31.0	0.075	28.0	0.068	-0.00727
Shawn Green	289.2	0.075	261.0	0.067	-0.00728
Darren Bragg	31.1	0.075	28.0	0.067	-0.00736
Mark Teixeira	17.0	0.077	15.0	0.068	-0.00903
George Lombard	23.2	0.108	21.0	0.098	-0.01014
Wily Mo Pena	25.6	0.079	22.0	0.068	-0.01109
Phil Nevin	55.0	0.078	47.0	0.066	-0.01128

Looks like Jose Cruz was the best in 2003.

Looks like Vinny Castilla is going to return to the Colorado Rockies. The hold right now appears to be the Braves; the Rockies are waiting to see if the Braves offer Castilla arbitration. If they don't the Rockies won't have to give up a draft pick. It's an example of a player wanting to be closer to home.

"I hope this works out," Castilla said. "My wife (Samantha) is from here. The in-laws are here. There are a lot of advantages to staying here to play."

Samantha is expecting the couple's third son in February, and their boys attend school in the Denver area. Goldschmidt declined to answer when asked if the Rockies have made a contract offer, and Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd has talked diplomatically about landing Castilla. However, multiple industry sources said the club is confident they can sign the fan favorite, who hit 22 homers for the Braves last season.

He actually may help the team as well, as Castilla had 14 win shares last year vs. Stynes' 10.

I was glad to see the Detroit Tigers are embarassed enough by last year's debacle to look to improving the team through free agents. One they are going after is Miguel Tejada, and Tigers realize they are going to have to pay up to bring better players to the city:

It happens when you lose 119 games and play in a city with a chilly spring climate and a park with big dimensions. Unlike many clubs, the Tigers can't lure a free agent by telling him that he's the missing piece of their championship puzzle, or that he'll build his hitting stats in their cozy park, or that he'll love the weather.

To overcome those disadvantages, the Tigers might have to overpay -- to make the highest bid for a free agent, going beyond his market value. They want to sign at least two quality free agents. Like most clubs, they haven't signed any yet, but baseball executives expect the pace to pick up in the next few weeks.

Ilitch said he might personally intervene to help convince a player to take Detroit's over-paying offer: "If the owner shows a real strong interest and goes out of his way . . . if you pick the right spot and the player is someone who can make a real contribution . . . you've got to do some of that in sports."

When given the chance to build a team through free agency in the past, Dave Dombrowski was able to bring a world championship to Miami. I don't think he can do that this year, but a player like Tejada would put some fannies in the seats and show the city of Detroit that the Tigers are serious about building a winner.

According to Mark Hale in the NY Post, the Mets are close to signing Kaz Matsui. He would play short, and Jose Reyes would move to 2nd. They are also attempting to acquire free agent Mike Cameron. Matsui, Reyes and Cameron would give the Mets good defense up the middle.

Here are the center fielders, minimum 200 balls in play while they are in center field.

Center Fielders

CF	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Jody Gerut	23.9	0.070	29.0	0.085	0.01473
Tim Raines Jr.	30.1	0.111	34.0	0.125	0.01430
Gabe Kapler	19.6	0.082	23.0	0.096	0.01426
Jeff DaVanon	72.3	0.110	80.0	0.122	0.01167
Ryan Freel	45.1	0.085	50.0	0.095	0.00926
Laynce Nix	50.7	0.109	55.0	0.118	0.00920
Willie Harris	76.4	0.098	83.0	0.107	0.00848
Carl Crawford	31.4	0.096	34.0	0.104	0.00788
Aaron Rowand	93.2	0.083	101.0	0.090	0.00692
Jeff Duncan	128.0	0.110	136.0	0.117	0.00688
Andruw Jones	362.1	0.088	390.0	0.095	0.00678
Wilkin Ruan	20.3	0.073	22.0	0.079	0.00608
Mark Kotsay	307.0	0.097	324.0	0.102	0.00535
Carlos Beltran	351.5	0.096	371.0	0.101	0.00531
Brian Jordan	29.7	0.123	31.0	0.129	0.00530
Milton Bradley	233.6	0.088	245.0	0.092	0.00427
Mike Cameron	467.5	0.120	484.0	0.125	0.00424
Raul Gonzalez	36.7	0.107	38.0	0.111	0.00386
Tike Redman	122.3	0.088	127.0	0.091	0.00341
Darin Erstad	184.3	0.107	190.0	0.110	0.00329
Torii Hunter	412.0	0.101	425.0	0.104	0.00319
Quinton McCracken	18.2	0.066	19.0	0.069	0.00306
Randy Winn	58.7	0.133	60.0	0.136	0.00291
Brian Giles	38.8	0.094	40.0	0.097	0.00290
Alex Sanchez	369.6	0.099	378.0	0.101	0.00225
Dave Roberts	196.8	0.083	202.0	0.085	0.00218
Gary Matthews Jr.	161.3	0.086	165.0	0.088	0.00195
Scott Podsednik	309.6	0.091	316.0	0.093	0.00188
Jim Edmonds	329.1	0.102	334.0	0.104	0.00154
Chone Figgins	106.3	0.096	108.0	0.098	0.00153
Johnny Damon	357.3	0.092	363.0	0.093	0.00147
Ryan Christenson	132.1	0.097	134.0	0.099	0.00140
Hideki Matsui	108.3	0.087	110.0	0.088	0.00136
Joe Borchard	31.8	0.081	32.0	0.082	0.00055
Chris Singleton	175.0	0.078	176.0	0.079	0.00044
Tsuyoshi Shinjo	89.7	0.110	90.0	0.110	0.00042
Gene Kingsale	51.8	0.084	52.0	0.084	0.00037
Preston Wilson	330.0	0.076	330.0	0.076	-0.00001
Luis Matos	299.9	0.102	299.0	0.102	-0.00031
Endy Chavez	279.1	0.089	278.0	0.088	-0.00036
Juan Pierre	403.6	0.094	402.0	0.094	-0.00037
Kenny Lofton	316.5	0.090	315.0	0.090	-0.00042
Eric Byrnes	164.1	0.081	163.0	0.080	-0.00052
Doug Glanville	145.1	0.093	144.0	0.093	-0.00069
Vernon Wells	386.4	0.086	383.0	0.085	-0.00076
Eric Owens	100.7	0.109	100.0	0.108	-0.00078
Craig Biggio	330.8	0.086	327.0	0.085	-0.00098
Corey Patterson	154.4	0.079	152.0	0.078	-0.00121
Austin Kearns	104.3	0.099	103.0	0.098	-0.00123
Roger Cedeno	31.6	0.078	31.0	0.076	-0.00144
Carl Everett	163.8	0.094	161.0	0.092	-0.00161
Wily Mo Pena	58.1	0.090	57.0	0.089	-0.00171
Marlon Byrd	302.0	0.089	295.0	0.087	-0.00206
Shane Victorino	22.7	0.076	22.0	0.074	-0.00232
Rocco Baldelli	446.8	0.107	437.0	0.105	-0.00234
Marquis Grissom	353.3	0.095	343.0	0.092	-0.00277
Ricky Ledee	66.7	0.073	64.0	0.070	-0.00294
Timo Perez	101.2	0.096	98.0	0.093	-0.00303
Ruben Mateo	27.1	0.084	26.0	0.080	-0.00341
Brian L. Hunter	11.7	0.054	11.0	0.050	-0.00343
Reggie Taylor	86.3	0.096	83.0	0.092	-0.00369
Andres Torres	83.4	0.094	80.0	0.090	-0.00381
Steve Finley	270.9	0.081	258.0	0.077	-0.00388
Jeromy Burnitz	63.1	0.081	60.0	0.077	-0.00398
Adam Hyzdu	33.6	0.095	32.0	0.090	-0.00442
Ruben Rivera	29.0	0.129	28.0	0.124	-0.00460
Tom Goodwin	35.7	0.078	33.0	0.072	-0.00603
Ben Petrick	29.3	0.080	27.0	0.074	-0.00624
Danny Bautista	33.6	0.083	31.0	0.076	-0.00646
Ken Griffey Jr.	96.7	0.083	89.0	0.077	-0.00660
Bernie Williams	311.5	0.101	291.0	0.094	-0.00661
Jeffrey Hammonds	28.2	0.089	26.0	0.082	-0.00690
Brad Wilkerson	78.2	0.079	71.0	0.072	-0.00730
Michael Tucker	65.6	0.088	60.0	0.080	-0.00745
J.D. Drew	56.6	0.095	52.0	0.087	-0.00765
Coco Crisp	136.0	0.096	125.0	0.089	-0.00776
Damian Jackson	24.4	0.080	22.0	0.072	-0.00778
Ramon Nivar	76.3	0.114	70.0	0.105	-0.00938
Jolbert Cabrera	54.1	0.077	47.0	0.067	-0.01013
Kerry Robinson	21.4	0.092	19.0	0.082	-0.01027
Melvin Mora	25.7	0.099	23.0	0.088	-0.01042
Armando Rios	44.1	0.097	39.0	0.086	-0.01134
Karim Garcia	24.5	0.111	22.0	0.100	-0.01144
Darren Bragg	27.7	0.077	23.0	0.064	-0.01307
Donnie Sadler	37.6	0.107	33.0	0.094	-0.01319
Jose Macias	31.4	0.122	27.0	0.105	-0.01686
Dustan Mohr	25.6	0.123	22.0	0.106	-0.01711
Lew Ford	23.3	0.091	18.0	0.071	-0.02090
Orlando Palmeiro	30.9	0.101	24.0	0.078	-0.02246

This list looks right to me. Andruw Jones first among regulars, Bernie Williams last. It also confirms that the Yankees should move Matsui to centerfield, and not try to pick up Kenny Lofton.

Here's the table for left fielders:

Leftfielders

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Jeffrey Hammonds	17.2	0.070	21.0	0.086	0.01531
Marvin Benard	27.1	0.080	31.0	0.092	0.01154
Ryan Ludwick	30.4	0.076	35.0	0.088	0.01153
Kerry Robinson	15.4	0.053	18.0	0.061	0.00885
Jeff Conine	45.6	0.060	52.0	0.068	0.00830
Dustan Mohr	49.4	0.073	55.0	0.081	0.00828
Coco Crisp	79.1	0.074	88.0	0.082	0.00826
Ron Calloway	83.8	0.073	93.0	0.081	0.00803
Jermaine Clark	29.4	0.082	32.0	0.089	0.00734
Dave McCarty	10.4	0.046	12.0	0.052	0.00688
Raul Gonzalez	51.2	0.091	55.0	0.098	0.00680
Ben Petrick	32.3	0.074	35.0	0.080	0.00629
Joe Vitiello	12.4	0.047	14.0	0.053	0.00603
Reed Johnson	68.0	0.067	74.0	0.073	0.00593
Shane Victorino	15.9	0.072	17.0	0.077	0.00478
Dee Brown	20.4	0.060	22.0	0.065	0.00472
Miguel Cairo	25.2	0.062	27.0	0.067	0.00459
Jose Guillen	43.2	0.067	46.0	0.072	0.00439
Mark McLemore	26.5	0.074	28.0	0.078	0.00428
Carl Crawford	304.5	0.083	318.0	0.087	0.00369
Brad Wilkerson	159.7	0.075	167.0	0.078	0.00342
Reggie Sanders	63.7	0.063	67.0	0.066	0.00322
Karim Garcia	31.0	0.098	32.0	0.101	0.00314
Stephen Smitherman	16.2	0.057	17.0	0.060	0.00289
Troy O'Leary	15.8	0.040	17.0	0.042	0.00288
Juan Rivera	62.6	0.071	65.0	0.074	0.00270
Melvin Mora	114.3	0.078	118.0	0.080	0.00251
Barry Bonds	228.7	0.073	236.0	0.075	0.00232
Brian Jordan	59.7	0.055	62.0	0.057	0.00216
Albert Pujols	192.2	0.067	198.0	0.069	0.00202
Gabe Kapler	26.1	0.060	27.0	0.062	0.00196
Shane Spencer	99.8	0.067	102.0	0.068	0.00148
Garret Anderson	320.6	0.084	326.0	0.085	0.00141
Timo Perez	63.7	0.061	65.0	0.062	0.00125
Lance Berkman	248.3	0.063	253.0	0.064	0.00120
Jay Payton	294.9	0.073	299.0	0.074	0.00102
Cliff Floyd	156.7	0.067	159.0	0.068	0.00100
Geoff Jenkins	219.2	0.065	222.0	0.065	0.00081
Luis Gonzalez	246.2	0.063	249.0	0.064	0.00071
Jacque Jones	185.6	0.077	187.0	0.078	0.00060
Randy Winn	296.9	0.082	299.0	0.083	0.00057
Frank Catalanotto	90.2	0.061	91.0	0.062	0.00055
Adam Piatt	39.8	0.061	40.0	0.061	0.00026
Jody Gerut	79.8	0.083	80.0	0.084	0.00025
Raul Ibanez	230.3	0.070	231.0	0.070	0.00020
Moises Alou	203.0	0.061	203.0	0.061	0.00001
Jason Jones	17.0	0.060	17.0	0.060	-0.00009
Rondell White	218.5	0.073	218.0	0.073	-0.00017
Russell Branyan	30.1	0.080	30.0	0.080	-0.00027
Carlos Lee	309.3	0.077	308.0	0.077	-0.00032
Craig Monroe	149.1	0.074	148.0	0.074	-0.00055
Gene Kingsale	14.1	0.063	14.0	0.062	-0.00057
Kevin Millar	33.3	0.073	33.0	0.072	-0.00069
Hideki Matsui	212.2	0.068	210.0	0.068	-0.00072
Jason Tyner	16.2	0.065	16.0	0.064	-0.00091
Gary Matthews Jr.	37.6	0.062	37.0	0.061	-0.00106
Chipper Jones	206.4	0.052	202.0	0.051	-0.00112
Jeromy Burnitz	83.6	0.062	82.0	0.060	-0.00117
Jose Macias	51.0	0.063	50.0	0.061	-0.00120
Pedro Feliz	22.4	0.075	22.0	0.074	-0.00132
Tom Goodwin	16.3	0.081	16.0	0.079	-0.00138
Shannon Stewart	251.8	0.081	247.0	0.079	-0.00153
Dernell Stenson	37.7	0.090	37.0	0.088	-0.00166
Rickey Henderson	20.7	0.052	20.0	0.050	-0.00174
Brian Giles	254.5	0.075	248.0	0.073	-0.00193
Pat Burrell	241.6	0.067	234.0	0.065	-0.00209
Mark Smith	21.6	0.075	21.0	0.073	-0.00214
Carl Everett	65.8	0.078	64.0	0.075	-0.00216
Adam Dunn	211.2	0.079	205.0	0.076	-0.00231
Billy McMillon	48.6	0.073	47.0	0.071	-0.00247
Brady Clark	27.3	0.056	26.0	0.054	-0.00264
Miguel Cabrera	103.0	0.071	99.0	0.068	-0.00277
Larry Bigbie	158.9	0.078	153.0	0.075	-0.00287
Kevin Witt	20.8	0.079	20.0	0.075	-0.00307
Manny Ramirez	218.1	0.066	207.0	0.063	-0.00338
Todd Hollandsworth	111.1	0.074	106.0	0.071	-0.00339
Eric Byrnes	52.0	0.059	49.0	0.056	-0.00342
Ricky Ledee	36.3	0.072	34.0	0.068	-0.00461
Jason Bay	36.5	0.070	34.0	0.065	-0.00485
Orlando Palmeiro	53.6	0.079	50.0	0.073	-0.00523
Ruben Sierra	29.9	0.054	27.0	0.049	-0.00528
Terrence Long	114.5	0.067	105.0	0.062	-0.00557
Mike Kinkade	33.5	0.054	30.0	0.049	-0.00562
Dmitri Young	134.7	0.078	125.0	0.073	-0.00562
Jason Michaels	14.5	0.057	13.0	0.051	-0.00575
B.J. Surhoff	43.9	0.068	40.0	0.062	-0.00605
Kevin Mench	61.4	0.071	56.0	0.064	-0.00618
Brian Banks	29.9	0.067	27.0	0.060	-0.00647
Michael Tucker	34.8	0.066	31.0	0.059	-0.00719
Matt Lawton	128.4	0.076	116.0	0.068	-0.00730
Jolbert Cabrera	10.1	0.037	8.0	0.030	-0.00771
Mark Teixeira	16.4	0.062	14.0	0.053	-0.00927
Darren Bragg	32.2	0.074	28.0	0.065	-0.00962

Not surprising, the young speedster Carl Crawford does very well among regulars. A bit more surprising is that the old man, Barry Bonds, does very well also. I also don't think it's much of a surprise that Manny Ramirez is near the bottom of the pack.

Here's the chart for all major league 2nd basemen who were on the field for 200 balls in play:

Second Basemen

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Nick Punto	32.9	0.126	38.0	0.146	0.01938
Mike Bordick	44.3	0.147	49.0	0.163	0.01555
Aaron Boone	60.8	0.107	68.0	0.120	0.01262
Willie Harris	26.6	0.126	29.0	0.137	0.01125
Brian Roberts	329.0	0.112	358.0	0.122	0.00987
Matt Kata	142.5	0.120	154.0	0.130	0.00970
Joe McEwing	119.3	0.108	129.0	0.117	0.00873
Mark Ellis	525.4	0.133	556.0	0.141	0.00778
Brent Butler	53.2	0.108	57.0	0.116	0.00771
Pablo Ozuna	32.2	0.139	34.0	0.147	0.00767
Shane Halter	71.8	0.112	76.0	0.119	0.00663
Jolbert Cabrera	108.8	0.115	115.0	0.122	0.00656
Adam Kennedy	435.4	0.126	457.0	0.132	0.00627
Brandon Phillips	328.1	0.112	346.0	0.118	0.00612
Henry Mateo	80.0	0.119	84.0	0.125	0.00597
Zach Sorensen	21.7	0.100	23.0	0.106	0.00574
Mark Bellhorn	46.8	0.119	49.0	0.125	0.00570
Pokey Reese	124.2	0.147	129.0	0.153	0.00565
Damian Jackson	58.5	0.131	61.0	0.136	0.00563
Abraham O. Nunez	203.1	0.122	212.0	0.127	0.00535
Ray Olmedo	39.2	0.101	41.0	0.105	0.00463
Jeff Reboulet	202.5	0.111	211.0	0.115	0.00462
Marcus Giles	499.9	0.132	515.0	0.136	0.00400
Luis Castillo	460.8	0.118	476.0	0.121	0.00387
Brent Abernathy	34.1	0.134	35.0	0.137	0.00370
Jose Vizcaino	50.5	0.125	52.0	0.128	0.00359
Orlando Hudson	507.6	0.139	520.0	0.142	0.00339
Neifi Perez	135.4	0.120	139.0	0.123	0.00320
Mark Grudzielanek	332.8	0.120	341.0	0.123	0.00298
Placido Polanco	328.4	0.125	336.0	0.128	0.00289
Geoff Blum	55.7	0.116	57.0	0.118	0.00272
Miguel Cairo	104.5	0.112	107.0	0.115	0.00270
Juan Castro	156.4	0.115	160.0	0.118	0.00268
Dave Berg	64.6	0.122	66.0	0.125	0.00267
Rob Mackowiak	33.3	0.123	34.0	0.126	0.00251
Warren Morris	282.5	0.112	288.0	0.114	0.00219
Mark Loretta	447.9	0.118	455.0	0.120	0.00187
Desi Relaford	269.6	0.114	273.0	0.116	0.00144
Chris Gomez	56.4	0.112	57.0	0.114	0.00128
Frank Menechino	41.6	0.106	42.0	0.107	0.00102
Mendy Lopez	22.8	0.088	23.0	0.089	0.00087
Benji Gil	69.7	0.130	70.0	0.130	0.00061
Bo Hart	232.2	0.123	233.0	0.124	0.00042
Juan Uribe	44.9	0.151	45.0	0.152	0.00022
Tony Graffanino	81.1	0.140	81.0	0.139	-0.00010
Tony Womack	45.1	0.114	45.0	0.114	-0.00025
Junior Spivey	291.9	0.125	291.0	0.125	-0.00038
Mark DeRosa	85.5	0.121	85.0	0.121	-0.00076
Keith Ginter	138.1	0.099	137.0	0.099	-0.00078
Alfonso Soriano	508.7	0.119	505.0	0.119	-0.00086
Tomas Perez	67.6	0.130	67.0	0.129	-0.00118
Jerry Hairston Jr.	151.6	0.115	150.0	0.114	-0.00123
Michael Young	503.5	0.114	496.0	0.113	-0.00169
Alex Cora	378.8	0.124	373.0	0.122	-0.00192
Marlon Anderson	376.5	0.114	370.0	0.112	-0.00195
Enrique Wilson	24.5	0.104	24.0	0.102	-0.00196
Bill Hall	54.9	0.127	54.0	0.125	-0.00203
Eric Young	355.3	0.116	349.0	0.114	-0.00204
John McDonald	98.7	0.118	97.0	0.116	-0.00205
Ray Durham	345.2	0.132	339.0	0.130	-0.00236
Jeff Kent	391.8	0.122	384.0	0.119	-0.00241
D'Angelo Jimenez	422.7	0.112	413.0	0.109	-0.00255
Jose Vidro	424.6	0.119	415.0	0.117	-0.00271
Carlos Febles	185.8	0.115	181.0	0.112	-0.00297
Chase Utley	109.0	0.118	106.0	0.115	-0.00329
Terry Shumpert	30.9	0.115	30.0	0.112	-0.00344
Bret Boone	469.2	0.113	454.0	0.110	-0.00367
Ryan Freel	23.0	0.095	22.0	0.091	-0.00398
Todd Walker	454.8	0.125	439.0	0.121	-0.00435
Luis Rivas	400.4	0.111	382.0	0.106	-0.00512
Carlos Baerga	42.7	0.134	41.0	0.129	-0.00540
Angel Santos	70.3	0.122	67.0	0.116	-0.00575
Fernando Vina	184.2	0.113	174.0	0.106	-0.00623
Antonio Perez	73.3	0.093	68.0	0.087	-0.00679
Roberto Alomar	399.2	0.113	374.0	0.106	-0.00713
Denny Hocking	51.2	0.116	48.0	0.109	-0.00735
Ramon Santiago	180.0	0.121	169.0	0.114	-0.00742
Julius Matos	21.6	0.103	20.0	0.095	-0.00756
Ronnie Belliard	353.0	0.118	326.0	0.109	-0.00906
Chone Figgins	35.4	0.111	32.0	0.100	-0.01051
Marco Scutaro	65.6	0.110	59.0	0.099	-0.01100
Keith Lockhart	44.2	0.117	40.0	0.106	-0.01108
Danny Garcia	51.1	0.118	46.0	0.106	-0.01172
Bill Mueller	24.3	0.090	21.0	0.078	-0.01221
Ramon Martinez	98.6	0.115	88.0	0.102	-0.01232
Jay Bell	29.0	0.102	25.0	0.088	-0.01403
Andy Fox	29.2	0.103	25.0	0.088	-0.01480
Rey Sanchez	22.6	0.100	19.0	0.084	-0.01608

Looks like the Orioles have great defense at 2nd base in Brian Roberts, and Mark Ellis appears to be making up for some of the defensive shortcomings of Scott Hatteberg.

I'm not surprised to see Roberto Alomar near the bottom. For years, zone ratings at STATS showed him very low, despite the how good he looked in the field. It also looks like Bret Boone's gold glove wasn't really deserved.

Alex Belth at Bronx Banter pens a thoughtful piece on what's going on with the Yankees, partly in response to Buster Olney's piece, and partly in response to the Nick Johnson trade. He's much more upbeat about things than I am. He quotes the 1988 Baseball Abstract and comments:

Does any of this feel familiar? Yes, the Yankees have essentially given up on developing players for the next few years. The players they have developed are now veterans. But the old Columbus shuttle isn't as frequent as it used to be. If this were the old days, Jeff Weaver's head would be spinning more than Jim Beattie's did. Yes, George is acquiring proven stars to lead the way, a ploy that ultimately failed during the eighties. But from what I can tell, the Yankees are doing a relatively good job of identifying their needs. They needed a right fielder, and are going after the best--OK, maybe the second-best--one available. They needed to upgrade their bullpen, and went out and signed Gordon and Quantrill (who are a far cry from the likes of Osuna and Acevado). They need starting pitching, they traded for Javier Vasquez.

I don't see a Steve Kemp or a Jack Clark yet, although if they sign Kenny Lofton he would fit that category just fine.

He also points to a John Harper Daily News article that shows Cashman still has power.

Where I would disagree with Alex's analysis is that the Yankees don't have to crash and burn. As an example of this, I'll point to Atlanta. Every year, Atlanta seems to be able to point to their weaknesses and address them. And every year (expect 1994) they've won the division. They don't let the team get old and stale. They improve with a combination of free agent signings (Pendelton, Sheffield) and bring up youngsters (Justice, Millwood, Lopez, Furcal, Giles). And they don't seem to destroy their farm system doing it either. If everything works out, the Yankees win the division again this year. But Jeter, Williams, Giambi and Posada become bigger question marks every year health wise. It doesn't take much bad luck to see those four hurt , and then where is the offense?

I agree the moves the Yankees are making aren't as bad as the moves they made in the 80's, but I think the treadmill is moving, and it possible that it will reach high speed very quickly.

The Reds hired Dave Miley as their manager last night, removing the interim title from his name. I think the most interesting part of the story is the last paragraph:

Miley's minor league teams won 1,115 games and lost 841.

That's a .570 winning percentage. You would think that if a team's minor leagues had been that successful, it would have translated to success at the major league level. Miley's record leads me to believe that at the major league level, the Reds have squandered opportunities over the years. It also makes me believe that Miley is a pretty good manager, and I look forward to watching him closer this year.

On the other hand, Lonnie Wheeler of the Cincinnati Post wonders why he only received a one-year contract:

Could the puzzling delay in Miley's hiring have had anything to do with the rumors of Pete Rose's reinstatement? Could Miley's one-year contract -- a curious arrangement for an organization that vows to have a plan and stick with it -- have anything to do with the possibility that Rose will be reinstated with a one-year probationary period, which might mean that he could manage a big-league team in 2005?

For Miley's sake, and baseball's, let's hope not. There are plenty of swell jobs that the Reds could make available to Rose, but manager is not one of them. You might recall that he was managing the Reds when that pesky little betting thing came up.

We'll see.

Here's the chart for shortstops in 2003 (minimum 200 balls in play):

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Denny Hocking	36.6	0.095	49.0	0.128	0.03232
Mark DeRosa	39.3	0.124	49.0	0.154	0.03048
Neifi Perez	133.4	0.141	146.0	0.154	0.01332
Craig Counsell	66.0	0.133	72.0	0.145	0.01220
Jorge Velandia	71.8	0.128	76.0	0.136	0.00757
Juan Uribe	265.0	0.134	279.0	0.141	0.00705
Julio Lugo	447.0	0.120	472.0	0.126	0.00671
Adam Everett	399.1	0.137	416.0	0.143	0.00580
Lou Merloni	55.5	0.129	58.0	0.135	0.00577
Angel Berroa	523.7	0.117	548.0	0.122	0.00540
Orlando Cabrera	497.4	0.117	517.0	0.121	0.00458
Omar Infante	222.5	0.130	230.0	0.134	0.00436
Omar Vizquel	229.7	0.130	237.0	0.135	0.00412
Jose Valentin	425.5	0.119	440.0	0.123	0.00407
Willie Bloomquist	46.5	0.115	48.0	0.119	0.00375
Chris Woodward	320.7	0.116	331.0	0.120	0.00373
Mike Bordick	201.9	0.113	208.0	0.117	0.00342
Ray Olmedo	138.4	0.113	142.0	0.116	0.00295
Rafael Furcal	500.6	0.120	511.0	0.122	0.00250
Carlos Guillen	199.6	0.108	204.0	0.111	0.00241
David Eckstein	352.0	0.115	359.0	0.117	0.00229
Rey Sanchez	266.0	0.119	271.0	0.121	0.00223
Enrique Wilson	59.3	0.112	60.0	0.114	0.00123
Alex Gonzalez	475.2	0.121	480.0	0.122	0.00122
Royce Clayton	446.3	0.116	450.0	0.117	0.00095
Alex S. Gonzalez	444.8	0.131	448.0	0.132	0.00094
Khalil Greene	53.6	0.115	54.0	0.116	0.00092
Jimmy Rollins	507.4	0.123	511.0	0.124	0.00087
Joe McEwing	112.3	0.139	113.0	0.140	0.00086
Barry Larkin	182.8	0.122	184.0	0.123	0.00083
Nomar Garciaparra	488.1	0.116	491.0	0.117	0.00070
Ramon Martinez	60.8	0.129	61.0	0.130	0.00044
Shane Halter	70.2	0.126	70.0	0.126	-0.00029
Melvin Mora	34.1	0.114	34.0	0.114	-0.00038
Wilson Delgado	43.2	0.119	43.0	0.118	-0.00050
Edgar Renteria	495.8	0.115	493.0	0.115	-0.00064
Cesar Izturis	511.9	0.136	509.0	0.135	-0.00077
Alex Rodriguez	484.0	0.111	480.0	0.111	-0.00092
Cristian Guzman	430.9	0.111	425.0	0.110	-0.00153
Alex Cintron	261.5	0.116	258.0	0.114	-0.00156
Jack Wilson	502.5	0.121	496.0	0.119	-0.00157
Tony Graffanino	89.5	0.126	88.0	0.124	-0.00208
Felipe Lopez	155.7	0.121	153.0	0.119	-0.00213
Rey Ordonez	103.3	0.105	101.0	0.102	-0.00235
Jose Reyes	258.1	0.137	253.0	0.134	-0.00268
Miguel Tejada	564.7	0.131	550.0	0.128	-0.00342
Benji Gil	38.3	0.105	37.0	0.101	-0.00348
Deivi Cruz	457.1	0.114	442.0	0.110	-0.00375
Derek Jeter	352.5	0.109	340.0	0.105	-0.00386
Ramon Santiago	283.3	0.115	272.0	0.110	-0.00459
Juan Castro	52.5	0.104	50.0	0.099	-0.00488
Rich Aurilia	366.8	0.114	351.0	0.109	-0.00490
Mark McLemore	101.6	0.110	97.0	0.105	-0.00501
Ramon Vazquez	320.0	0.117	306.0	0.112	-0.00512
Enrique Cruz	25.2	0.123	24.0	0.117	-0.00576
John McDonald	63.6	0.102	60.0	0.096	-0.00580
Felix Escalona	23.2	0.113	22.0	0.107	-0.00584
Tony Womack	186.8	0.112	177.0	0.106	-0.00587
Alfredo Amezaga	67.1	0.113	63.0	0.106	-0.00682
Jhonny Peralta	262.5	0.138	249.0	0.131	-0.00709
Jose Hernandez	231.5	0.119	215.0	0.110	-0.00847
Jose Vizcaino	52.5	0.113	48.0	0.103	-0.00972
Donaldo Mendez	84.1	0.121	77.0	0.111	-0.01027
Ricky Gutierrez	28.5	0.117	26.0	0.107	-0.01041
Clint Barmes	34.8	0.133	32.0	0.123	-0.01076
Jose Morban	14.4	0.068	12.0	0.057	-0.01117
Abraham O. Nunez	52.4	0.113	47.0	0.101	-0.01159
Erick Almonte	91.0	0.120	80.0	0.106	-0.01456
Bill Hall	60.2	0.123	53.0	0.108	-0.01461
Chris Gomez	34.7	0.102	28.0	0.082	-0.01983
Damian Jackson	29.5	0.120	24.0	0.098	-0.02252
Mike Mordecai	32.1	0.114	25.0	0.089	-0.02510

Looking at this, why would Tampa Bay ever go back to Rey Ordonez at SS. Not only is Lugo a good fielder, he can hit better.

I'm somewhat surprised that Jeter isn't the worst regular shortstop in the majors, and Tejada isn't much better. Aurilia is rated lower than both of them, yet win shares (according to STATS, Inc.) gives Jeter 1.3 defensive win shares, Aurilia 5.6. In looking at the win shares system for SS, James has four categories he weights 40-30-20-10. In order, they are assists, double plays, errors and putouts. None of these is a pure measure of range, yet all contribute to it. And they are all adjusted by an expectation based on league averages. I'm hoping these two system can be combined to improve the calculation of defensive win shares.

Jay Jaffe has an excellent post on what the Yankees need to do with their rotation. He wrote it before the Vazquez trade, but he had Javier listed as one of his top four choices for the Yankees.

The Red Sox have made it official, Terry Francona is the new manager.

Francona said he knew it was a perfect fit as soon as he came to Boston to interview with general manager Theo Epstein.

"I went home knowing this was a place I wanted to end up," Francona said. "All of the things they seem to believe in - communication, open and honest communication, the way you treat people, their view on the game of baseball, it just seemed like a terrific match."

I commented on Francona earlier.

Mark McClusky, a former SI writer and editor has a new blog, McClusky.com. I like this post about the A's battle for Foulke:

What's interesting about this is that Beane has made a little industry of moving closers at the point that they become overpaid. Tying up $24 million in a closer goes against what he's always done -- and that makes me wonder what he's thinking.

It seems to me that Beane thinks the window for this team might be closing, and he's probably right. Miguel Tejada is probably gone already -- Beane told MLB.com that "I haven't spoken to Miguel's agent. I don't know if we're waiting for anything, we're just sort of moving on." Chavez is a free agent after 2004, and the Big Three are signed through 2005.

Or, it could be that Beane thinks that he finally has a closer that's worth the money. Six million a year isn't really all that much for a quality closer. And of course, attendance has gone up the last three years, so it's quite possible the A's have more money to spend on players.

It appears the Yankees have made a trade with Montreal, acquiring Javier Vazquez for Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera and Randy Choate. (Javier Vazquez has the highest scoring Scrabble name in the history of MLB.) Vazquez has a career 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio, and has been a very good, dependable pitcher over the last three years. He's a good acquistion. One the flip side, I think this Buster Olney piece is ringing more true that it did two days ago.

It all seems familiar. From 1976-1981 -- a period of six years -- the Yankees had dominant pitching, with Sparky Lyle and Ron Guidry and Goose Gossage and Catfish Hunter, won two World Series and played in two others and made the playoffs every year but one. Steinbrenner asserted even greater control, lured free agents, stripped the farm system. By 1983 the Yankees had a lineup of Roy Smalleys and Steve Kemps, aging hitters who had seen their best years, and by 1986 the Yankees' leading starter was Dennis Rasmussen, an 18-game winner; no other pitcher won 10 games.

Steinbrenner was running the show, and the Yankees' victory total declined. Ninety wins in 1986, then 89 victories, 85, 74, and 67. That's when Steinbrenner was suspended, and Michael became general manager.

It should also be noted that George was suspended during the runnup to the 1976-81 era. When I read this story Tuesday, I thought the comparison wasn't quite that good, given that the Yankees had Nick Johnson. But now I'm not so sure. If and when the Yankees sign Sheffield, they'll still have a very good team, but it's starting to look like an old team. In the late 90's, the Yankees were a young team with veteran role players. Now, they are a veteran team with no youth on the horizon. This is what led to the demise of the Orioles in the late 90's, and the same thing may happen to the Yankees.

The Transaction Guy offers his take on how the deal went down.

Just wanted to respond to one of the comments to the post about the Yankees acquistion of Paul Quantrill.

I'm a little surprised at the reaction, but maybe just because I've watched Quantrill be quite effective over the past year, and haven't seen much of Gordon. If my quick addition is correct, over the past two years Gordon and Quantrill have given up the same number of hits, while Gordon has walked 23 more people. (Gordon has five more innings pitched.) I think it isn't a sure thing that relatively poor infield defense will give up 23 more groundball hits over roughly 150 innings than will good defense. Gordon might work out betterthan will Quantrill, but I'm not sure the difference will be great enough to be excited about the one acquisition but not the other.

We can use my probabilistic model of range to help answer this, at least for 2003.

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Tom Gordon	124.6	0.692	124.0	0.689	-0.00332
Paul Quantrill	156.4	0.686	166.0	0.728	0.04219

So, at least last year, balls put into play against Gordon were easier to field. Quantrill had a much better defense behind him. I could easily see the +10 outs for Quantrill going to a -10 outs with the Yankees. The many fewer balls in play against Gordon should lead to more success for him.

Of course, if the Yankees realize this, they'll only use Quantrill in bases empty situations, where a single isn't going to score a run, and Gordon with men in scoring position, where the strikeout is more helpful.

Update: Here's the table just for ground balls:

Team	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Tom Gordon	58.2	0.737	58.0	0.734	-0.00297
Paul Quantrill	82.4	0.749	89.0	0.809	0.05972

This shows that Quantrill's boost came from the Dodgers doing a good job of fielding his grounders. It's also interesting to note that while balls in play against Gordon were easier to field overall, Quantrill's groundballs were easier to field than Gordon's.

Bambino's Curse gets the quote wrong in the title, but the concept is correct. Quoting Bryant in the Boston Herald (requires subscription):

The Red Sox, Larry Lucchino especially, may like to point to the Yankees as the ultimate, dangerous free-market machine. But the personality during the brief Henry Era has been to collect stars not necessarily through barter, but by simply crushing the rest of the field with greater financial resources. It is, of course, very much a Yankee way of doing business.…

If the Yankees are indeed the Evil Empire, then the Red Sox are its Evil Twin. It is no coincidence that most of the individuals above were targeted by both teams

Baseball Musings had this metaphor and the correct quote in October. Hard to see, the dark side is. :-)

Two-head monster has this among it's interesting tidbits in its Fungoes column.

Comcast Corp., Jerry Reinsdorf, the Tribune Co. and Bill Wirtz will launch Comcast SportsNet Chicago in October to broadcast Chicago teams' games.

Sounds like a big blow to Fox Sports Chicago to me. What worries me is what will happen in the 2005 baseball season (from the article):

More uncertain is how the move will affect the thousands of viewers who now watch Fox Sports Net games via satellite, through DirecTV and other providers. It is not clear whether Comcast, which considers satellite providers competitors, would shut out those viewers.

That would be a shame. If you want to make more money, and have your team more popular, it helps to have as many people as possible see your product.

Barry Bonds will testify today before a federal grand jury in the BALCO case. Ann Killion of the San Jose Mercury News sums up what we will learn very nicely.

What happens in a federal courtroom today won't mean the end of Bonds' baseball career. It won't be an apocalyptic moment for the sport or the man. It won't mean that either the cynics or the Pollyannas are right.

The cameras will try to capture Bonds' image. The reporters will try to get a quote. We'll see how he walks up the steps and down the hall.

But that is about all we'll learn.

The testimony is confidential. We may never learn what Bonds talks about today.

The Phillies have abandoned trying to re-sign Kevin Millwood, and have instead traded for Eric Milton of the Minnesota Twins. I'd rather have Millwood, but Milton's okay. His main weakness is giving up a lot of HR. It would be nice if you could blame that on the HHH Dome, but he's given up more HR in fewer innings on the road during his time in Minnesota. The trade doesn't really hurt the Twins that much, as they were able to win without Milton in the rotation last year.

I wonder what will happen to Millwood now? Since the Phillies are unlikely to offer him arbitration, teams would be wise to wait until after Dec. 7th to sign him. It seems like he would be of interest to the Yankees.

Frank Lin has a relatively new blog up, Frank's Field of Dreams. He's keeping track of news about Asian players in the United States. Stop by and say hi.

The Yankees have signed another right-handed reliever, Paul Quantrill (the article also has a roundup of the hot stove action). I like this signing a lot less than the Gordon signing. ESPN's profile page of Quantrill lists him as a groundball, finesse pitcher. Given the Yankees defense, I can see Paul getting roughed up quite a bit.

The one thing he did extremely well with the Dodgers was keep the ball in the park, allowing only three HR over the last two seasons. He has the lowest HR per 9 (0.18) over the last two seasons of any pitcher with 150 IP.

Hideki Matsui discusses the differences between MLB and Japanese baseball in an interview with the Japanese press:

Matsui, who had 106 RBIs and batted .287 with 16 homers to help lead the Yankees to the playoffs in the American League in his first year in the majors this past season, said the main difference between Japanese baseball and the version played in North America is in the pitching.

"If a pitcher throws you a fastball in the majors, it might drop out right in front of you. Even if you try and predict the orbit of the ball, you'll swing and pull it or ground out because you won't hit the sweet part of the bat," Matsui said.

I was a bit surprised to find this at the end of the interview:

Other things in life like when he will give up his bachelor's life and take a bride — something some baseball analysts say helps players gain focus — is what Matsui refers to as "a thing he can't control."

"I really enjoy my privacy now and I really don't have the desire to marry now. Maybe, I'm just not that popular with the ladies," he added.

That must be Japanese baseball analysts they are talking about. I don't remember a sabermetrician studying that. :-)

Up until this point, I have not allowed comments to my posts for a couple of reasons.

• I don't want obsenities on my blog.


• Spammers are now using comments to post links to their products.

But I just read this post on Jeff Jarvis' blog, and it made me rethink this policy. I'm going to have comments open on each post. We'll see how this goes.

The Cubs have signed LaTroy Hawkins to a 3-year, $11 million deal. The Cub Reporter makes an important point :

I'll take the question mark off the title when it becomes official, but for now I will say this: Hawkins is good. In fact, in three of the last four years, he's been very good, and in the last two I'd even say he's been great.

Ironically, the only year he struggled as a reliever was the year he spent as the Twins' closer. Keep that in mind when Dusty starts pitting him against JoeBo in the spring because he's a "proven" closer. I would say he's a proven closer the same way he's a proven starter; he's proven that, when put in that role, he doesn't perform well. If Dusty feels the need to not pitch Hawkins until the 9th inning next year, it won't be the most effective allocation of resources, but it won't be the end of the world, either.

Of course, Dusty has to be willing to warm up pitchers before his starters get in trouble for them to be effective. At least he won't have to worry about LaTroy wilting in the heat. :-)

On another note, so far the free agents that have been signed are not getting outrageous amounts of money. If Sheffield signs with the Yankees for the reported amount, the New Yorkers are getting a pretty good deal. I never thought we'd see three years in a row where we didn't set a new record for highest salary.

Update: Fixed link.

Mike's Baseball Rants presents a thorough analysis of this year's Hall of Fame ballot.

Al's Ramblings reports that Mike Gimbel thought the Brewers got the best of the Sexson trade. (Perma link is not up yet, scroll to Dec. 1).

There's something bothering me about the supposed Gary Sheffield deal:

Sheffield's agent, Rufus Williams, said it has not been determined when a deal with the Yankees would be completed.

"A deal is done once it's inked, and we're not at that point," Williams told The Associated Press.

New York might wait to finalize Sheffield's deal until after the Dec. 7 deadline for teams to offer salary arbitration to former players who became free agents, a baseball official with knowledge of the situation told AP on condition of anonymity.

It was initially reported that Sheffield wanted more money from the Yankees and that he was even considering re-signing with the Braves. If Atlanta doesn't offer arbitration to Sheffield, the team that signs him after Dec. 7 would not lose any amateur draft picks as compensation.

If the deal is a done deal, and everyone knows about it, why wait until December 7th? Atlanta is going to offer arbitration so they can get the draft pick, especially if they know Sheffield is going to sign with the Yankees. So I wonder, is someone in the Sheffield camp pulling a fast one? If the Braves offer arbitration, will Sheffield accept? Sheffield had more win shares last year than Giambi or Manny Ramirez or A-Rod. It's quite possible that a arbitrator could award Sheffield a one-year contract between $15 and $20 million dollars. That might be more appealing to Gary than $11 million a year over three years.

I don't think this contract is as solid as the stories make it out to be.

ESPN is reporting that Mike Lowell is about to sign with the Marlins pending a physical. Daniel Shamah notices an interesting clause in the contract:

But check out that out-clause: a new stadium deal? It reminds me a lot of the Mike Sweeney deal a couple of years ago, that was contigent on the Royals reaching .500. It seems to me that this is an unintended consequence of the last CBA and a creative solution to the current market correction in player salaries: in an effort to keep salaries down, award other incentives that don't impact the salary threshold. So Lowell gets assurance that the Marlins have a better fiscal outlook (which presumably, would lead to a better team), and the Marlins don't lose an all-star third baseman, and don't take the PR hit losing Lowell would result in. So on the surface, it's a win-win deal, kind of like the way the Sweeney deal was at the time. But now the Royals might be better off without Sweeney: a fluke season triggered the lock-in clause, and as a result they're locked into a long-term contract that they can't really afford. The Royals' competitive timetable indicates that 2005 may be the year they can take a shot, but they're locked into 11 million a year for an aging Sweeney. I could reasonably foresee a similar problem for the Marlins: the core of their team is their young rotation, Cabrera, and Hee Seop Choi. In 2005, they'll be on the verge of being a dynasty, except that they'll have 8 million on the books for an aging, injured third baseman.

I agree that it's a win-win deal. And I agree that Sweeney was win-win also, since it demonstrated a commitment to winning that helps bring fans to the park. The boost in attendance can come after you win the series, as happened to the Twins after they won in 1987. I believe the Marlins are trying not to repeat the mistake of 1997; while they didn't make money that year, there's no telling what would have happened in 1998 if they had kept the team together. By making these moves, the Marlins management is giving the fans of Florida the chance to show that they will support a championship ball club. If not, they don't ask for a new stadium and Lowell is gone in a year.

I had missed this story about the Schilling trade (mostly because I was depending on old media over the weekend). Schilling logged into the Sons of Sam Horn chat room and spoke directly to Red Sox fans. And being impressed with those same fans helped him make up his mind to come to Boston.

I wonder, however, if he also logged into a Yankees chat room? I think Curt wanted to come to Boston, and this pushed him over the edge, but did he give the same chance to Yankees fans?

Return to the days of yesteryear as the Yankees sign Tom "Flash" Gordon to a two year contract. I was never impressed with Gordon as a starter, but he's been a fine reliever, and it looks like he's finally recovered from his Tommy John surgery. He strikes out a lot of batters; just what the Yankees need with their stinky defense. He keeps the ball in the park, which is good for a righty pitching in Yankee stadium. And he can step into the closer role if something happens to Rivera. Since 1997, he actually has a better save percentage than Rivera (88.4 to 87.4, fourth and fifth in the majors over that time). A very good signing by the Yankees.

(Hat tip to Off Wing Opinion.)

The Marlins have resigned Luis Castillo, fending off an offer from the NY Mets. Despite the trade of Derrek Lee to the Cubs, it looks like the Marlins will try to keep the team together. According to the article, Mike Lowell is also about to sign a new contract. The big question mark is Ivan Rodriguez, who is looking for more than $10 million a year in a multi-year deal. It's interesting; all three are very close in win shares (I-Rod and Lowell 23, Castillo 22), but those wins are valued very differently with Luis getting about $5 million a year, Lowell $8 million a year, and Ivan asking for more than that. Castillo looks underpaid to me.

For those of you wondering about collusion, the I-Rod case is a good one to watch. The Orioles tried to get him last year, and with his stellar 2003 performance, you'd think the O's would want him even more. He would fit well on the Giants (a great replacement for Santiago), or give a boost to the Cubs offense. He's a great player coming off a great year, and if there is little interest in him, there's something fishy. :-)

Correction: Brian Carter reminds me that the Giants already replaced Santiago with Pierzynski.

There is a discussion going on at Baseball Primer on Mike Needham's Scattershot article, discussed here.

I received a couple of letters regarding my earlier post on the Sexson trade. The first is from Joe Duellman:

I detected some not-so-subtle jabs at Bud Selig and the Brewer's decision to cut payroll in your post on the Sexson trade. While I'm certainly not a fan of Bud Selig or anyone on the board of directors for the Brewers, I think to point out that they were the most profitable team in baseball and go on to imply that they are being either greedy or foolish not to put those profits into building a more competitive team is not entirely fair (please forgive me for the run-on...it's easier to type this apology than revise that sentence). Mistakes have obviously been made in the way that this franchise has been run from both a financial and competitive standpoint. However, those mistakes are in the past and, unfortunately for Brewer fans, cannot be taken back. Yes, this team (supposedly) was the most profitable in baseball. However, this team is also in over 100 million dollars of debt. That's a staggering amount. Who could blame them for cutting payroll in an effort to cut down on this debt, especially with uncertain and dwindling revenues? My question is, what would you have them do? Would adding an additional 20 million dollars to the payroll lead to a winning season in 2004? I highly doubt it, and any success they might have would most certainly lead to even greater pains down the road. Rather than looking at this process pessimistically as yet another chapter in a decade long history of mistakes and poor management, one can look at this as part of a plan grounded in patience and common sense. Personally, I think the decision to cut payroll is the right move for the Brewers. They can work on cutting down on debt and will have more money to spend on free agents and such when it will actually mean something. They are waiting on a steadily improving farm system to provide the influx of talent that will lead them to a level of success where spending money takes them to the playoffs, rather than simply mediocrity. The smart move is to have faith in player development and save the money for when it will count. Of course, one has to trust both Milwaukee's ownership (a tall order, I admit) and Doug Melvin and the rest of the front office (a much easier task - at least in my opinion). As with most issues, I think one has to look at the big picture and understand that the Brewers may actually be looking to the future at the expense of the present, as opposed to simply swindling their fans. I think we'll see how this all works out in a few years, when highly regarded prospects such as Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy and Rickie Weeks (hopefully...) move on to the Major Leagues.

The second is from Bryan Johnson:

As a Brewers fan I'm upset that they had to deal Richie Sexson...Besides being a great hitter he plays hard and played every inning this past season, which I think is something that gets overlooked...It would be quite easy to take a day (or inning) off when you're team is virtually out of the playoff race on April 1 (some might argue earlier). The deal though, given the financial situation of the Brewers isn't bad though...They get a lot of quality players and a few prospects. I don't know why they need all those middle infielders (I think Keith Ginter deserves a starting job, and he's cheap) and I don't know if they plan on Counsell playing shortstop or not...

As for your claim that Bud Selig is somehow pocketing all of this money, nothing could be further from the truth. The Milwaukee Brewers are estimated to be $110 Million dollars in debt. As much as I'd like to see them keep the payroll around $40 million, I realize that its not really that big of a deal. With or without Sexson the Brewers have no shot at competing in the next few years, so I'd rather have them pay off that debt and maybe create a situation where they can spend money down the road when it actually might make a difference between 80 wins and 90 wins rather than 60 wins and 70 wins.

According to this editorial, the Brewers have $110 million in debt.

What conditions have been set by Citibank, which recently refinanced the Brewers' debt of $110 million? The Brewers pay a floating interest rate pegged to something called the London Interbank Offered Rate, which is currently about 1.5%, based on an adjustment every 12 months. The team's debt service right now, Quinn says, is $8 million a year. How much of that pays down principal, and how much covers interest charges?

What we don't know here is the length of the loan. If we assume the $8 million a year includes both interest and principle, then the length of the loan is approximately 15 years. Anyway, the Brewers have a great interest rate, meaning they are paying off principle pretty quickly. It also means that the Brewers debt isn't that big a deal. If they didn't have the debt, they would only have another $8 million dollars a year to spend! That's half a super star. My experience with debt is that when the interest rate is low, keep the debt and invest your profit in something that will make you even more money.

The Brewers drew 1.7 million in 2003. If they took their profit and invested it to make the team competitive, they might draw 2.5 million. If you believe they can make $20 a head, they'd have a $16 million profit. The could then reinvest that, have a payroll of around $70 million, very competitive team, fans in the stands (maybe 3 million?), enough money to pay the debt and enough to give investors a profit.

So you see, I don't buy the we have to cut to make money in future. If you are making money now, you have to reinvest to grow the team. Cutting payroll will just lead to more defeats and fewer fans, and more cuts to the payroll in the future.

Milwaukee and Arizona completed the long awaited trade for Richie Sexson today. Arizona also gets Shane Nance and a minor leaguer to be determined. Milwaukee gets most of an infield, including Counsell, Spivey, Overbay and three others. The Brewers shave $3 million off their payroll (I thought they were the most profitable team in baseball?) and the Diamondbacks get the slugger they wanted.

In terms of win shares, the Brewers come out a little better, 28 to 26, based on what the players did in the majors in 2003. And while the fans will certainly miss Sexson, Milwaukee wasn't going to compete with him anyway. Until Bud uses the profit he makes to start building up the team, the Brewers will continue to bubble to the bottom of the NL Central.

A healthy Randy Johnson should now give the DBacks three players in the 20's in win shares next year (Johnson, Gonzalez and Sexson). That's very good, and should definitely put the DBacks in the playoff hunt again.

Mike Needham of Williams College penned this piece for Scattershot Magazine, in which he explores why the A's lose the big games. He comes to the same conclusion as others, that the A's don't play small ball.

Obviously there is no way to assure that a team will score five runs every day, but it would be reasonable for a general manager to sacrifice some of his team’s ability to maximize its total run output if that would increase the chances of scoring five runs on a given day rather than only two. That is precisely what playing small ball attempts to accomplish. By trading an out to move a runner over to second base, the team has logically increased its chances of scoring one run, at the expense of a bigger inning. This type of baseball, therefore, increases a team’s ability to avoid being shut down completely on offense at the expense of blowing the other team out with an offensive onslaught.

Given the quality of pitching in the playoffs and the relative scarcity of runs as a result, building a team that deemphasizes speed and small ball becomes even more of dangerous in the post-season. Hit-or-miss offenses like the Athletics’ become far riskier in the playoffs. This fact largely explains the A’s inability to meet with the same success in the playoffs that they enjoy in the regular season.

Let me state this as clearly as I can. The A's lost the ALDS this year because of two base-running blunders in game 3. It had nothing to do with small ball vs. big ball. It had to do with the A's baserunners being stupid.

The A's lost in 2002 because their pitcher didn't deliver. The offense was fine vs. the Twins.

The A's lost in 2001 because Derek Jeter made a play that no one thought he could make (and Jer. Giambi didn't slide). And they lost in 2000 because, as Needham points out, Long dropped the ball:t all started with one terrible half-inning in 2000. The Oakland A’s – a young team whose highest paid player wouldn’t make the top-10 of their opponent’s salaries – were coming off a Game 4 trouncing of the New York Yankees and looking to close out the improbable victory at home. Then, just one half-inning into the game, A’s centerfielder Terrance Long drops an easy fly ball. The Yankees go on to score six runs that inning and the A’s – the American League’s second best team behind the White Sox – lose the series.

So that's two on pitching and defense, and two on base running blunders. The real problem with the A's offense is that they have a high-OBA, low-BA offense. So if they go up against a team that doesn't walk many batters, they are reduced to a low BA offense. And, by the way, the A's are 10 for 10 in stolen bases the last four years in the playoffs, and were 3 for 3 against the Red Sox. They use the steal wisely.