Over at the raindrops, Avkash looks at the sale of the Dodgers and a bit of a scandal at the Great American Ballpark.

Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts has much more on the McCourt purchase of the Los Angeles National League franchise. He strikes a very cautionary tone. (Hat tip: Priorities and Frivolities)

Frank McCourt makes me feel powerless.

He could be the next great disaster for the Dodgers. Or, he could be a hidden treasure of, well, adequacy.

But how disturbing is it that after Thursday's press conference to discuss his purchase of the team, there is nothing that actually inspires confidence? Every potential positive statement made by or about McCourt had to be qualified.

Whatever the future holds, good or bad ... today, the Dodgers really seem to belong to someone else. Maybe this feeling will go away, but they don't feel like the city's team right now. They don't feel like our team.

McCourt compares his ownership to that of the Red Sox. However, the Boston ownership moved immediately (and consistently) to impress upon Red Sox fans that they were running the team for the fans. From Jon's post, McCourt failed to do this.

Also, congrats to Jon on being tapped for a radio interview about the purchase! I've believed for a while that weblogs and radio have a natural synergy, and I hope more of my fellow bloggers will be finding their way onto the airwaves soon.

Frank McCourt has been approved to buy the Dodgers:

"Welcome to a new era of Dodger baseball," McCourt said during a news conference at Dodger Stadium. "I intend to restore the glory days of Dodger baseball with a team worthy of support from our fans."

The price is the second-highest for a baseball team, trailing only the $660 million paid for the Boston Red Sox two years ago. The highly leveraged purchase, likely to be finalized within a week, probably will set off the third change in management in six years for the marquee franchise, which hasn't advanced to the playoffs since 1996.

He's missed most of the good free agents, so I wouldn't expect the Dodgers offense to get much better this season. My guess is that by the end of the season, this will be a very different Dodgers organization.

I saw this link at Bronx Banter about Stuart Sternberg buying a controlling interest in the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. However, Vincent Naimoli remains the managing partner:

Sternberg, 44, is unknown to Major League Baseball. A former executive of the options-trading firm of Spear, Leeds and Kellogg, which Goldman Sachs bought on Sept. 11, 2000, for a reported $6.5 billion, Sternberg does not have an option to buy out Naimoli and become the team's managing partner, a baseball official said.

There's a man after my own heart. If I made 100's of millions of dollars in a business deal, I'd go out and buy a baseball team. My guess is that Naimoli has a price, and eventually Sternberg will find it.

A number of people have pointed out that Gary Sheffield has offered to play third base for the Yankees (Dom Cento had suggested the idea here):

The Yankees' newest outfielder offered his infield services to GM Brian Cashman, even though he hasn't played third in 11 years. Cashman wouldn't rule out the possibility - "you never know with this team," he said - but added that, at this point, it's not a realistic scenario.

Still, Cashman marveled at Sheffield's willingness to help his team.

"This is a man I don't know very well at all," Cashman said. "But this showed me something. Let's put it this way: (The offer) will go a long way."

Sheffield has a reputation as a bit of a selfish player. I especially remember his time in Milwaukee, where it seemed to me he was not playing up to his potential because he didn't want to play there. This seems like a pretty selfless move, but it could also be low risk. Gary may realize that there's little chance of the Yankees making this switch, so he'll come out looking like the good guy. Still, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say, "Bravo."

It also just goes to show how hard it is to find a good thirdbaseman. Compared to shortstops for example, how many really great third basemen are out there? Rolen, Chavez, maybe Glaus and who? Blalock is still young. Koskie's pretty good, but doesn't get a lot of publicity. After those, however, there's not much. It will be interesting to see how creative (or uncreative) the Yankees get in solving the problem.

My solution to use Pudge
may not be viable much longer.

Yesterday I got together for lunch with one of my readers, Dominic Rivers. Dominic graduated from the Sports Management program at UMass. He interned for the Pirates and has been looking for another job within baseball. Dominic told me about an article he published on-line, where he tries to determine how much weight on-base percentage should get in the on-base+slugging formula using linear regression. I find one statement very interesting:

Nevertheless, there are some aspects of this data that are difficult explain. Despite my deeply held intuitive belief that on-base percentage is always more important than slugging percentage, the two-year time period chart shows three eras where SLG appears to be more important than OBP. Those eras are 1981-1982, 1989-1990, and 1990-1991. Oddly enough, these periods happened to produce the lowest “r-squared” totals. For those who haven’t taken a stats class, or who had one but didn’t pay attention, “r-squared” tells you how much is explained by the regression equation. So for example, in the 2001-2002 time period ‘runs scored’ were approximately 88.2% (r-squared of .882) determined by OBP and SLG. The other 11.8% can be explained by other stuff. This “other stuff” might include baserunning, clutch hitting, and number of times reaching base on an error. Why does a “low r-squared” period correspond with a period where SLG is important? My opinion is that these eras, 1989 in particular, are characterized by a great deal of offensive parity. For example, in the National League in 1989, every team besides Atlanta had an on base percentage in the range of .305 to .321. In the American League in 1989, all but two teams scored between 4.13 and 4.78 runs per game. But these years are anomalies, and hence, I would not recommend that Major League GM’s attempt to build an offense based on numerous low-OBP/high-SLG Dave Kingman types.

This is just what I would have expected. If teams are very close in OBP, slugging will dominate. If they are close in slugging, OBP will dominate. But there's another lesson to be learned here as well. There's more than one way to score runs. Having a team with a high OBP is a great way to score runs, maybe the best way to score runs, but it's not the only way. You can do just fine with high slugging averages. You can do fine with high batting averages. You can do fine by being okay in all of those and just being lucky. As with so many things in life, there is no one right answer.

I saw this note at Baseball Crank:

* The Giants have agreed to change the name of Pac Bell Park to the even-more-antiseptic-sounding SBC Park. Much as these corporate stadium names bug me, it wouldn’t be so bad if they didn’t keep changing all the time. Like your local bank, it’s getting altogether too difficult to keep some of these parks straight due to their frequent name changes. Grumble, grumble. (Check out this site, if you’re motivated to do more than grumble.)

It used to be easy to remember ball park names. Now, they are named after some business I haven't heard of, or they change every other year. Let's cut the corporate crap and go back to naming these parks after people and places. When I think about where the Padres play, I'd much rather remember Jack Murphy than a cell phone or a pet store.

The Cleveland Indians may be paving the way for openly gay players in the major leagues:

Indians minor leaguer Kazuhito Tadano is asking for forgiveness for what he called a one-time mistake -- his appearance in a gay porn video in which he engaged in a homosexual act.

I suppose we'll know that MLB has become tolerant when a player only has to apologize for appearing in a porn video, not for what he did in it.

"I did participate in a video and I regret it very much," he said. "It was a one-time incident that showed bad judgment and will never be repeated. I was young, playing baseball, and going to college and my teammates and I needed money.

"Frankly, if I were more mature and had really thought about the implications of what I did, it never would have happened."

Through an interpreter, Tadano added: "I'm not gay. I'd like to clear that fact up right now."

Not that there's anything wrong with that. :-)

The players and management don't seem to have a problem with this:

Twice in the minor leagues last season, Tadano stood before his teammates and confessed to his participation in the video, which Nero said can only be obtained on the black market in Japan.

Tadano received overwhelming support from players at Kinston, N.C., where he started the season and later at Akron, the Indians' Double-A affiliate.

"I wanted to tell the truth to my teammates," he said.

A former starter, he pitched in all three levels of the minors last season, going 6-2 with a 1.55 ERA and three saves. At Akron, he didn't allow a run in his first 28 innings and struck out 78 in 72 2-3 innings.

Outfielder Grady Sizemore said Tadano's speech last year was well received in the clubhouse.

"You could tell he was nervous," said Sizemore, a top prospect who lived with Tadano this winter. "But I don't think it changed anybody's opinion of him. After it was said and done, nobody thought anything more of it. He's a great guy and a great pitcher."

If he pitches well during spring training, Tadano could win a spot in Cleveland's bullpen. Whenever he joins the Indians, pitcher C.C. Sabathia says Tadano will be welcomed.

"This is the right team and the right organization for him," Sabathia said. "We have good guys here. Everybody has done something that they regret in their lives. He's a person just like everyone else."

In the last year you have the Colorado Rockies publicly condemming Todd Jones for anti-gay remarks and the Indians management and players accepting a player who has appeared in a gay porn movie. It seems to me an openly gay ballplayer can't be too far into the future. A team with young players, like Cleveland, may be the right place for the first homosexual ballplayer. After all, these young men have grown up in a much more tolerant society than I did (I was born in 1960), and may not think it's such a big deal.

Dom Cento points out in the comments to this post on Boone that Gary Sheffield used to be a third baseman. Why not move him to third and have three center fielders in the outfield? It'll be a really bad defensive infield, but you don't have to out and buy anymore players.

Truisms is a new blog, mostly about baseball. I like some of his post titles, like, "Why is it so impressive that a man sprints to first base on a walk?" Give him a look.

Tyler Cowen at the Volokh Conspiracy gives a nice review of Transition Game, a new blog about sports and technology. Nick Schulz is the author, and to my delight he's linked to Baseball Musings. Check out this post on steroids. I'm in agreement with Nick, especially his last paragraph. And this post on uncertainty is the type of thing I like to study. Maybe we can do it with pitchers instead of tennis players.

Stop by and wish Nick good luck with his new blog.

Jay Jaffe at Futility Infielder was nice enough to calcuate DIPS for 2003.

The Baseball Crank continues his research on win shares with a look at the established win share levels of players in the AL West.

Bronx Banter is reporting that Aaron Boone injured his knee playing basketball last week and may miss the entire season.

Offensively, this doesn't hurt the Yankees too much. You can replace Boone's bat. Defensively, it is a problem. Can Drew Henson step up and finally realize his potential? Or will the Yankees take this as an opportunity to move Jeter to third and find someone who can really play shortstop? Who can they trade for A-Rod?

Update: An intriguing solution would be to sign Ivan Rodriguez and move him to third base. Peter Gammons did a piece on Pudge's footwork a few years ago in which it was noted that he moved like a second baseman. Pudge could have easily been in fielder. He has the arm for third base, he has a great bat for third base, and no one else seems to want him. Why not give it a try?

I don't know if this post and the comments made a difference, but copying appears to be working on ESPN articles again.

The political blog kausfiles has been sending a lot of readers this way over the weekend. Welcome! I hope you come back for more baseball news as the season heats up. This is a great place to get an understanding of all those sports analogies the pundits like to toss around. :-)

Roger Clemens had his feelings hurt at the New York BBWAA dinner:

The Rocket, who ended his "retirement" after 78 days to sign with the Houston Astros, was greeted with a mix of boos and cheers last night as he picked up the award at the New York Baseball Writers Association of America dinner at the Sheraton New York.

Yankee GM Brian Cashman presented the plaque to his former ace, who spent five seasons with the Yankees.

The reaction from Yankee fans and local media didn't sit well with Clemens, who won his 300th game and recorded his 4,000th strikeout in the same game last season.

"I don't see a lot of papers, but obviously I heard it once I made the commitment to go home," Clemens said. "I heard some of the things that were on the back pages and it was hurtful. It did bother me because I poured my heart out here and did the best I could."

Clemens played for some of the toughest fans around in Boston and New York for most of his career. What did he expect? I'm surprised Steinbrenner didn't fire Cashman for presenting the award!

I think this should put those A-Rod trade rumors to rest for a while.

I'm now using a news aggregator called Feed Demon to try to do a better job of reading as many baseball blogs as I can every day. I've found the ones with obvious RSS feeds, but sometimes they don't stick out. So if you have a baseball blog with an RSS feed, please either e-mail me with the URL or leave it in the comments for this post. Thanks.

Avkash at the raindrops has an interesting chart on plate appearances by age for teams last year. One thing, I disagree with his assumption that prime time for players is ages 26 to 34. Most of that time, the players are falling off from the top of their games at age 27. I would have prefered to see age ranges of

1. Through 24


2. 25-29


3. 30-34


4. 35+

Then age group 2 would capture players at their peak. Given his data, however, I really like the way Toronto and Cleveland are set up. They have a lot of players moving into prime years together, which is just what you want from a rebuilding program. Also, with the Expos concentrated in ages 26-29, their offense isn't going to get any better than they are right now.

ESPN has made blogging more difficult. When you are on the page of an ESPN news story, you can no longer select text for copying. You can try it yourself with this article about Rick Reed signing with the Pirates. This makes it a lot more work to quote and comment on articles (you can still do it, you just have to type the text). I don't know what the reason is, but it's going to make blogging their articles more time consuming.

Which means that I may not link to as many articles from their site. And that's bad for them. The way Google works, the more you are linked, the more likely you are to bubble to the top of searches. The higher you're seen in a search, the more likely you are to be visited. The more you are visited, the more you can charge for advertising.

ESPN has the best and most diverse set of baseball writers of any on-line site I read. They are the first place I go for baseball news. But now, I'll probably get my ideas there, but link to similar stories from other sources. It's too bad. I assume they are doing this to stop what they see as theft, but baseball thought for many years that radio and TV would decrease attendance, when the two in fact made the game much more popular. This policy will lead to less links, and less links means a lower Google standing. I think it's a mistake.

Update: A reader (see comments) reports that you can still cut-and-paste with Mozzilla. I'll have to try it with Safari on my Mac at home, also. However, neither of those browsers support the MT B, i, U or URL buttons. Solve one problem, create another. Maybe ESPN should just change things back.

Update: As of Jan. 26, 2004, you can once again copy text from ESPN.com articles.

Captain Kangaroo has died. This was a show I watched every week day morning growing up. It's hard to believe Bob Keeshan was only 76! He seemed so much older than his mid-30's when I was watching him as a child.

The Captain's show came from the treasure house. He'd start the show by opening the door with a key, go inside and hang the key on a hook. As the key went on the hook, the theme music would stop. I remember one show in which the key would not stay on the hook, and the music just kept playing! Kelloggs' was the big advertiser, and they had a model train pull a car with a bowl of Rice Krispies to a water tower, which would fill the bowl with milk. That was pretty cool.

The Captain had puppet friends before Sesame Street was even thought of. Mr. Moose was a wise guy who would use knock-knock jokes to say the words "ping pong balls," which would release hundreds onto the Captain's head. Bunny Rabbit was a silent puppet who always managed to steal carrots from the Captain. The show had cartoons and entertaiment guests and of course, Mr. Greenjeans. A perfect children's show.

My thoughts go out the the Keeshan family. Captain Kangaroo will be missed.

Yankees, Mets and the Rest is a new blog by a pair of fans, one for the Yankees and one for the Mets. I just visited and learned that Homer Bush has come out of retirement! The Homer homer record may not be safe after all!

Update: Someone actually found Baseball Musings today with this search on Yahoo:

Homer Bush hit a homer players named

Amazing.

The Rockies have signed Shawn "The Wilting Man" Estes to a minor league contract. It shouldn't be too hot for him there.

Estes' specialty is the ground ball, which will come in handy at homer-friendly Coors Field if he makes the team. Since the start of the 1997 season, he has induced a major league-best 1.24 ground balls per nine innings.

In an interview with Basebal Musings last year, Bill James notes that Whitey Herzog thought sinker ballers were the right pitchers for Coors Field. We'll see if it works out.

The Mad Hibernian at the Baseball Crank has thoughts on the retirement of Jesse Orosco.

Please go here and send the guy e-mail nominating me for the obvious character. :-)

Tim Kurkjian pens a piece on the players facing the most pressure this year. Number 9 on his list is Bobby Crosby, the A's replacement for Miguel Tejada. Crosby had a great year with the Sacramento Rivercats, putting up a .939 OPS (.395 OBP and .544 slugging). His batting on the team was only exceeded by Graham Koonce, who is five years older. Crobsy is 24 years old, entering the prime of his career. I'm a little suspect of PCL numbers, so I would guess he won't put up a .939 OPS. But if he plays well defensively and has a high OBP, he'll be fine. Can wait to see how he does on the road. :-)

This is just perfect.

A few weeks after admitting he bet on baseball, Pete Rose is going to an eastern Connecticut casino to sign his new book and dine with high-rollers.

The career hits leader, who agreed in 1989 to a lifetime ban from baseball following an investigation of his gambling, is to appear at Foxwoods Resort Casino on Saturday for an invitation-only signing of his book, "My Prison Without Bars," the Day of New London and the Norwich Bulletin reported.

Here's a speculative story about Ivan Rodriguez possibly going back to the Marlins:

Rodriguez, though, would have to wait until May 1 before signing with the Marlins, unless there is an unprecedented -- and highly unconventional -- sign-and-trade transaction involving a second team.

I don't think it will happen before May 1. The union proved with the veto of the A-Rod deal that they won't let the CBA be violated, and my bet is they will see a sign and trade as a clear violation of the CBA, and stiff I-Rod, too. (That would leave a month to stiff E-Rod, O-Rod, U-Rod and Sometimes Y-Rod.)

Of course, the Mariners may be interested in the catcher as well, and they are a lot more likely to win than the Tigers.

David Berstein at the Volokh Conspiracy asks if John Kerry and Andrew Jackson were separated at birth. Actually, baseball fans know that it's Peter Gammons who looks just like Andrew Jackson (Scroll down). Peter is often presented with $20 bills to autograph.

It's interesting that people think both look like Jackson. Gammons and Kerry played hockey against each other in prep school, and Peter told me once that Kerry was the dirtiest hockey player he ever saw. Maybe ESPN can run a poll on who looks more like Old Hickory!

Just came across this Oakland Athletics blog, Athletics Nation. Stop by and say hi, and check out his Chad Bradford post.

Colby Cosh has a list of quotes predicting the last year of the Expos, dating back to 1997.

Bill Hobbs sends me this review of Baseball and Country Music.

It's a holiday for Roy Halladay, as he's about to sign a 4-year contract worth $42 million, according to the Globe and Mail.

It's a good signing. I don't think Roy is the best pitcher in the AL, but he's certainly one of the best. He's still young at 27, and he should be able to anchor the rotation through the length of the contract. Plus, the Globe and Mail nails something else that Ricciardi is accomplishing:

The Blue Jays now have considerable cost certainty, with six players signed beyond this season (Halladay, Vernon Wells, Eric Hinske and off-season acquisitions Miguel Batista, Ted Lilly and Kerry Ligtenberg). Halladay, Wells and Hinske are signed through 2007.

If you do long term contracts right, they are great at controlling costs, and they make your players tradable. The Indians did this in the early 90's, locking up their good, young players for the decade. They were able to avoid arbitration, no one left for free agency until the Indians had gotten their best years, and the Indians were able to trade for baseball value rather than for contract considerations. Once again, Ricciardi looks like he knows what he's doing.

Baseball Information Solutions is a fairly new company that is in the business of collecting and distributing baseball statistics. The president, Steve Moyer, directed operations at STATS, Inc. during my tenure and was responsible for building up the great network of reporters there. I learned about this start-up when I saw the 2004 Bill James Handbook available for sale. I contacted Steve to find out what was happening, and those discussions have led to a job offer.

Starting Feb. 2, I will be back in baseball, working for Baseball Information Solutions as a programmer. I'm very excited. Steve is a pleasure to work with, and the company is backed by John Dewan, the driving force behind the rise of STATS, Inc. Bill James is obviously lending his name to the book. It's like the early days of STATS, Inc. all over again.

And continuing this blog is part of the deal! (I guess that makes me a professional blogger. :-)) We've talked about making this weblog a part of the Baseball Information Solutions web page, so I suspect over the next year you'll see some changes, all for the better.

And thanks to all who have supported this site the last two years with your visits and comments. You've kept my head in the game, and made me want to get back into the business. I hope you continue to enjoy your visits here and as much as I enjoy writing for you. The 2004 season can't start soon enough!

It looks like the New Jersey Nets will be moving to Brooklyn shortly. I think it's a great move, and I've felt for a while that Brooklyn would be a perfect destination for the Expos.

Avkash at the raindrops has a nice summary of the Mets Winter Caravan kickoff. Piazza and Reyes both talk about their upcoming position moves.

Alan Schwarz has an excellent column on what statistics matter to baseball people; GM's, news media and fans. He looks at what stats are good at telling us about the present and which are good at telling us about the future. Most interesting, he now considers defensive efficiency a main stream stat!

There's been great progress in the last 25 years in how people think about baseball. This article is a good demonstration of that.

I watched the Patriots playoff game in high definition over the weekend. Beautiful picture, and it's great being able to see the defensive backfield on a wide screen. I noticed that SportsCenter was using definition in the studio last night. It's a big improvement over the stretched picture they were broadcasting before. But my high definition wow moment came last night.

I was exercising in my basement, watching the SOTU speech on my conventional analog TV. I watch most of the speech, then went upstairs to get some water. My wife and daughter had been watching the speech, so I went into the den to catch the end. NBC was broadcasting in high def. My jaw dropped. The colors were spectacular. The VP and Speaker were perfectly framed in the shot. You got a feel for the texture and beauty of the woodwork on the dias. The picture was unbelievable. I can't wait to watch a season of ESPN baseball in high def, and I hope my local Fox affiliate gets their transmitter working in time for the playoffs this year. If you can find a place to watch the Super Bowl in high definition do so. You'll really enjoy it.

Correction: 2/11/2004, fixed a typo.

Michael Humphreys sends this link to a detail DRA summary from 1974-2001, including a spreadsheet you can download.

I didn't think I'd have anything to blog about during the State of the Union address, but President Bush just called athletes on the carpet for using performance enhancing drugs.

Lots of players avoiding arbitration today. The Transaction Guy has all the signings. Start here and work backwards.

SethSpeaks is putting together a fantasy baseball preview. His first installment of AL Central hitters is up.

Outside the Beltway names it's ultimate Super Bowl matchup! Maybe Drew Henson will have a job after all. :-)

Aaron Gleeman is excited about the Twins twin rookies:

I will certainly have a lot more on this subject in the coming months, but let me just say that I don't think Joe Mauer is going to show much power as a rookie this season. I do think he will eventually develop into a well above-average power threat and the fact that Morneau's power numbers in high Class A and Double-A at the same age weren't exactly McGwire-esque is good news.

Of course, what's even better news is that Mauer and Morneau should be members of the same lineup from 2005 until about 2020 or so.

If Joe Mauer doesn't develop any power, he's a left-handed Jason Kendall. If he does develop power, he's a left-handed Johnny Bench. Frankly, neither of those options sound too bad.

Earlier in the post, Aaron comments on how Terry Ryan is the un-Billy Beane. I'm not so sure. Terry may just keep it to himself.

Alfonso Soriano and the Yankees avoided arbitration. Soriano will get $5.4 million this year, up from $800,000 last year. Soriano was 2nd among AL 2nd basemen in win shares last year, making his 2004 salary seem quite reasonable. If he learns the strikezone and stops trying to hit low, outside pitches for HR, the contract will be downright cheap.

Not any more!

Kazuhiro Sasaki says he will not play for the Mariners this year, and will forfeit the $9.5 million he is owed for the season.

"It's a personal situation," agent Tony Attanasio said. "He wanted to stay home with his kids. Last year, he did not have his kids with him and his wife. He had to have that, and he left a lot of money on the table."

Attanasio said Sasaki may pitch in Japan next season but "he will not pitch again in the United States."

It looks like this makes Hasegawa the closer for the Mariners, unless Bavasi can convince Sasaki to change his mind.

U.S.S. Mariner has a very pragmatic view of this.

Update: Here's a translated interview with Sasaki.

Rob Neyer pens a superb column on why Ivan Rodriguez and Greg Maddux are still looking for jobs. He also includes this interesting tidbit:

It's a risky bet, though. And more now than ever. Because -- as Bill Madden reported in Sunday's New York Daily News -- insurance companies are significantly more conservative these days than they used to be, when insuring the contracts of baseball players. Before 2002, the sky was the limit and you could insure just about anything. That terrible Mo Vaughn contract? Insured, and so it wound up costing the Mets relatively little (which is something, by the way, that we almost always fail to consider when we're talking about a team that's wasted a great deal of money on a player who got hurt).

Anyway, no more. According to Madden, the insurers won't cover any contract that runs more than three seasons, and even when they will insure a contract, it's "only for injuries unrelated to any previous injuries."

Here's the Madden column. So the insurance companies have done something the owners were never able to do themselves; drive down the value of players contracts. The effect is two fold. If the owners can't insure the contract, they will offer less money and/or a shorter time period, so they are not stuck with a long-term guarantee. If players are getting short term contracts, they become free agents more often, meaning that you have a high supply of free agents every year. High supply drives down prices. (Why sign I-Rod if Javy gives you a better deal?)

So it may not be smarter GM's or owners or collusion that's causing the soft free-agent market. It may just be that insurers are unwilling to take on the risk. Who would have thought it?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have finished their mini camp. Robert Dvorchak evaluates the team:

The roster still has three gaping holes in it for a closer, a power bat (preferably left-handed) and perhaps a starter or pitching help from the left side. Thus far, the financial flexibility that was promised after last season's trades has produced third baseman Chris Stynes. But, last year, some key ingredients weren't added until well into spring training.

"We have to deliver the goods," Littlefield said.

Expectations are low.

Dave Littlefield is trying to stay on plan, however:

Littlefield said his plan for emerging from this grim predicament remains unchanged. He expects to cobble together a team with what he has and with one-year contracts for stopgap players in the short term, and stock and develop players in the minor-league system to provide the core players needed in the long term.

He did a good job last year of adding those pieces late in the process, but the Pirates were never really competitive last year. I suspect they won't be competitive again this year. McClendon remains optimistic, however:

It is McClendon who will have to play this downsized hand when pitchers and catchers report a month from now. For his part, he is miffed at the conventional wisdom.

"I choose to find a way to get it done," he said during five days of workouts designed to give the club a feel for where everybody is in terms of health and conditioning. "If you argue for your limitations, that's just what you become. Sure, we have our challenges. Most teams do. We'll be talking about this in July. This isn't gloom and doom. This ain't the end for this franchise."

The right attitude. On paper the Pirates don't look like they can win. They probably can't. But luck plays a big part in baseball. A couple of hot veterans, a youngster exceeding expectations, and you at least have an exciting team in Pittsburgh. We'll see who Littlefield can acquire, and who he turns into more prospects as the season progresses.

With the Eagles loss, hopes are now riding on the Phillies:

In the somber silence of the Eagles' green-carpeted locker room, most of the players remained either in the trainer's room or in the shower. But as a few spoke in whispers, a longtime Philadelphian shook his head.

"The Phillies ought to be good," he said.

"But will they be good enough to win it all?" he was asked.

"In this town," he said, "no team ever is."

Seems there's not that much hope.

Joe Strupp of Editor and Publisher takes an inside look at the BBWAA and how the conduct Hall of Fame Voting.

Horsefeathers remembers Harry "The Cat" Brecheen.

Mark Hale of the NY Post tries to find some hope in a poor week for the Mets. He finds it in Duquette telling him that the Mets budget is not set in stone, but can be expanded for a player who might take them over the top.

If the Mets are hovering around playoff contention this summer and there is a top player available via trade, owner Fred Wilpon has given GM Jim Duquette the green light to add payroll and try to acquire him.

"If there's a unique and special player that we know about, I can go to [the Wilpons] and say this is a guy we want to have," Duquette said yesterday. "They've given us that flexibility in the past and I would expect that they'll give us that flexibility now."

With that in mind, the most alluring name could be the White Sox' Magglio Ordonez, the slugging right fielder whose averages over the last five seasons - a .312 average with 32 homers and 118 RBIs - would make Shea fans salivate.

My question is, why wait to see if you are in contention? Go for Ordonez now, and you actually might be in contention come July.

Twins' GM Terry Ryan made a tour of central Connecticut, where the Twins' AA team, the New Britian Rock Cats are located. Ken Lipshez of the Middletown Press has the story. Ryan is very high on Joe Mauer:

The Rock Cats’ player pipeline to the big leagues was a major topic of conversation with Joe Mauer at the forefront. Mauer, the minor league player of the year who will still be just 20 come opening day, is the heir-apparent to the catching position vacated when Ryan dealt former Rock Cat A.J. Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants.

"We think Mauer’s about ready and we’re going to put him on the fast track," Ryan said. "I didn’t think it was healthy to have Pierzynski and Mauer together. Joe Nathan (12-4, 2.96 ERA with SF in ’03) is a good pitcher and losing (Eddie) Guardado and (LaTroy) Hawkins, we had to beef our pitching up.

"I think everybody who’s been around Joe Mauer thinks he’s mature beyond his years. Every place he’s been he’s been a winner."

The Selig family is selling the Brewers. Good. That will end the conflict of interest Bud has commissioner. The team has a low payroll and makes money and plays in a new stadium. I would suspect you could buy the team cheap; maybe someone as smart as Arte Moreno will turn up in Milwaukee.

Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press believes the Tigers are being used to get Ivan Rodriguez a better deal with the Cubs.

Indications are that the Tigers are close to securing the guts and glue of the World Series champion Florida Marlins, but you still can't help but suspect they're little more than a marionette twisting at the mercy of an agent bent on using the Tigers' desperation for credibility as a tool for squeezing more money from a more desirable suitor.

It's not a matter of trusting owner Mike Ilitch, but rather a question of not trusting Scott Boras.

How do you know when an agent is lying? When his lips are moving.

From a competitive standpoint, there is no logical reason for Rodriguez to come to Detroit. Has he suddenly grown tired of champagne showers and championship ring fittings after one year? There isn't a hallucinogen available that could make the Tigers' rotation resemble the Cubs' -- the other suitor in the Pudge sweepstakes.

On the other hand, MLBScoop believes the deal is going to happen.

The city of Detroit is hungry for a baseball star, and Pudge, the perrenial all-star who led his team to the World Series, certainly fits the bill. In fact, the Detroit News reports that Rodriguez is becoming a bit like Elvis among the city's baseball fans. "We had a couple of callers saying they saw him at the Hard Rock Cafe,” said Mark Wilson of WKRK 97.1 to the paper.

Stay tuned.

Hank Aaron isn't happy with Pete Rose:

"During these past few days, I've looked at Pete on television, and he hasn't given any signs of an honest confession," Aaron told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution in an interview published in Friday editions.

"Plus, I've seen absolutely no truth whatsoever in what he's saying," he said.

Aaron, a vice president with the Atlanta Braves, said Rose should be treated like anyone else who gambles on games.

"I just think it's hogwash to say that he should be put back into the game just because the public wants it," Aaron said. "A rule is a rule, and the rule is on every clubhouse door that you can't bet on baseball. It doesn't say that you're excluded if you have 4,000 hits or 700 home runs."

The backlash continues.

Alan Schwarz pens a piece for ESPN.com on the milestones to watch for in 2004. He also finishes with a favorite toy update at the end.

The Favorite Toy estimates that 39-year-old Bonds has a 52 percent chance of breaking Aaron's record -- not to mention a 20 percent chance of zooming past him to 800. Alex Rodriguez (345 already by age 28) has a 43 percent shot of passing Aaron, while Sosa (539) registers at 37 percent. One shouldn't take those figures too literally, but taken together they do suggest that there's about an 83 percent (five out of six) chance that at least one of them will ultimately break Aaron's record.

I think it's been pretty obvious for 10 years that someone will make a very serious run at Aaron. For a long time, I thought it would be Griffey Jr. This year will tell us if Bonds can do it or not. Of this whole group, however, I really like A-Rod's chances of winding up #1 eventually.

I just got a huge compliment over in the comments at Bronx Banter.

Also, this is what I love about Pinto, he's like the Mr. Spock of baseball.

Fascinating comment. Live long and prosper!

Eugene Volokh looks at the Cubs case against the remaning rooftop owners, and thinks the misappropriation claim is stronger than the copyright claim. He also cites a case that involved STATS, Inc., and a product I helped program.

I saw this link at Baseball Primer about the Reds instituting pitch counts for their minor league pitchers. Part of it is to try to prevent injuries, but a more interesting part comes from Tim Naehring:

Although the prevention of injuries is expected to be a fringe benefit of the new plan, Reds player development director Tim Naehring said that isn't the primary reason for it.

"Coming out of college, with aluminum bats, these guys are used to pitching away from contact," Naehring said. "We're trying to teach these young pitchers at an early age to pitch to contact, which means trying to command the fastball and get the hitter out early in the count. When you only have 75 pitches, you better be pretty effective with the way you use your pitches if you want to stick around until the fifth and sixth innings."

Another aspect of the program is that each pitcher will be required not only to develop a changeup, but to use it on at least 10 percent of his pitches in every game, regardless of whether he has perfected it. And finally, pitchers at those levels will be presented with a list of requirements they must meet before becoming eligible for promotion to the next level.

"It's sort of like elementary school, where you have to pass first grade before you can go on to second grade," O'Brien said. "I'm not saying it will be that way in every case, because you might have an injury that necessitates an individual being promoted when he hasn't mastered all the ingredients at that level. But by and large, the program we have put in place is going to make it clear to the athlete what is expected at that level. After that, it's up to him."

I like this idea. It's like the A's rewarding minor leaguers who get on base well. It will be interesting to see how it develops over time.

Last year the Brewers' slogan was "It's Coming Together." It didn't. Since they didn't win last year, you might think they'd spend their money on new players. Nope. They have a new slogan.

Now after a tumultuous off-season in which the team's top executive resigned and the franchise's credibility sank to a new low, the Brewers are stressing a dual work ethic that emphasizes the team's desire to play aggressive baseball and the way Brewers' fans like to have fun at Miller Park.

"It's The Way We Play" is the new Brewers slogan and will be the centerpiece of the team's print, radio and television advertising, promotion and marketing beginning in February.

The new campaign was developed by the Zizzo Group Inc., a Milwaukee marketing communications agency brought in by the Brewers late last year.

The Brewers might want to try winning. That does more to bring fans to the stands than the best slogan.

Update: I think the first comment below says it all.

Sidney Ponson will once again roost in Baltimore. He's earning an extra $1.5 million over the three-year deal the Orioles offered him last summer, and the Orioles have three more players in their organization. Seems like that's one trade that worked out very well for the O's.

Update: A comment points out that Moss is a free agent, so the O's only get two more players out of the deal. Still not bad.

ESPN.com is reporting that the Cubs have made an offer to Greg Maddux. Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs are feeling pressure to match the Astros moves.

I don't know that signing Maddux really matches signing Clemens, unless you are taking the point of view that he's returning home. Clemens posted 15 win shares last year, Maddux 11. It's the first time Maddux was below 15 wins shares since 1987. Maddux set a career high in HR allowed last year, and unlike Clemens, his strikeouts have really fallen off. He'd probably be the 4th or 5th starter on the Cubs, but 10 or 11 wins shares from the 4th starter isn't too bad.

The MLB owners will be meeting in Scottsdale, AZ today. Here's a look at what's on the agenda.

Owners also may discuss a proposal to start a baseball channel, similar to networks started by the NFL and NBA.

Eighty years after the introduction of radio made gave baseball the opportunity to bring live games to a mass audience, baseball has finally realized that mass media helps, not hurts the game. Rather than resisting the internet, baseball has come up with a good coordinated policy that allows people all over the world to listen to games at a pretty low price. They also are allowing most games to be seen in all markets for about $150 a year, also reasonable for a baseball nut like me. I like the idea of a baseball channel, although, like the reports on MLB.com, you have to wonder if the reporters will really be objective.

Dave at Baseballgraphs.com takes some results from my probabilistic model of range and does some interesting analysis.

In general, I like Jim Caple, but yesterday's column was very poor. And it starts right in the first paragraph:

We all knew that Roger Clemens wouldn't be able to stay retired for long, and he didn't. His retirement officially lasted 78 days, which the typical retiree can spend just searching for his car keys. Britney Spears was married almost as long.

We all knew? I doubted this story the entire time. Clemens appeared to me to be very sincere when he retired. And since when is hours almost as long as months?

But we get to the real meat of Caple's piece in the third paragraph:

Although this announcement came sooner than expected, it is a welcome one. For one thing, this really makes George Steinbrenner and the Yankees look bad. They've now lost their starting pitchers from Games 1, 2, 4, 5 and 6 of the World Series (Clemens, Andy Pettitte and David Wells), who accounted for 53 wins and 634 innings last season.

That's all that matters to Jim, hating the Yankees. Caple is turning into a one-trick pony, blasting the Yankees every chance he gets. It's fine once in a while. I know lots of people think the Yankees are responsible for all the ills of the world. When Dan Shaughnessy took over Peter Gammons Sunday column in the Boston Globe, he added a new feature, a weekly dig at the Yankees buried in the column. Maybe this made Dan very popular in Boston; maybe his Yankee hatred makes Caple popular across America. But in both cases, it turned me off because I know neither writer will ever say anything honest about the Yankees. And if I can't trust them with one team, why should I trust them with any other team?

From what I know of Jim, he's a smart, funny guy. He should save his criticism of the Yankees for when they really deserve it. Otherwise, the constant harping will make readers indifferent to his columns. It's already done that to me.

Aaron Gleeman breaks down the Angels options in the outfield and concludes that Erstad is not the person to move to first base. I made a similar comment here.

Edward Cossette has an interesting post on team chemistry, and is nice enough to include my opinion on the matter. However, I think Edward is changing the traditional view of team chemistry. After quoting me about wanting lots of Reggies and Bonds and Rickeys on my team, he says:

Right. And having those kind of guys are part of a chemistry that just might work. In my own experiences, I've had some of the most productive development teams be made of folks who were not at all friends in the traditional sense. We didn't hang out. We didn't go to each others houses. We didn't play softball together. Indeed, I know a couple of us really didn't like each other very well, but the team had just the right chemistry, just the perfect amount of stubbornness and acquiescence, ego and modesty, sweat and laughter…

No, chemistry is not friendship. Chemistry, for certain, is akin to what the Supreme Court said about pornography: I can't define it but I sure do know it when I see (or rather feel) it. (Of course, it's the inability to quantify it that gets all the sabermetrics guys and gals all pissy.)

The problem is that writers define chemistry very narrowly; it's how well the players get along. That's it. If they walk into a club house, and the players are all smiling and chatty and golfing together, they have great chemistry. If they are growling at each other, they have lousy chemistry. What Edward is saying (I believe), is this narrow definition is wrong. I've with him on that. However, even if chemistry exists, I don't think it's very important. And we'll see how good the Red Sox chemistry is if they don't meet expectations this year.

It looks like Jason Kendall is going to be traded to the San Diego Padres, his home town team. But reading the article, you have to be an accountant to understand why the teams are doing the deal.

The Pirates plan to cut their payroll from about $52 million last season to $35 million, and the combined $9,575,000 they would pay Cirillo and Hernandez this season is more than the $8 million they owe Kendall. But they would save more than $20 million over the life of Kendall's contract if they don't pick up any of the salary owed him from 2005-07.

Kendall will make $10 million in 2005, $11 million in 2006 and $13 million in 2007 under the $60 million, six-year contract he signed in 2000 -- coincidentally, just months before the Pirates moved into PNC Park.

Remember when trades were about talent?

The Cubs and rooftop owners have reached an agreement where the Cubs will get a share of rooftop revenue:

While the settlement does not affect the team's continuing wish to add about 2,000 bleacher seats at Wrigley, the rooftop owners argue that by taking a cut of the profits from each seat, the Cubs in effect get their expansion, a source familiar with the rooftop owners' side told The Tribune.

"This deal does not mean we are letting down our opposition to an expansion or that it paves the way for an expansion. Our view is, with this agreement, the Cubs have gotten their expansion," the source told the newspaper.

Another source close to negotiations said: "It's an amazing deal for the Cubs. They are just handed $2 million for doing nothing."

Maybe they should use the extra money toward signing a premier free agent. Seems both sides really win in this. The rooftop owners continue to get a view into Wrigley and rake in millions of dollars, and the Cubs get a nice piece of the action. Now, if the owners could just start acting this way with the players...

Jay Jaffe writes:

Jon Weisman (Dodger Thoughts: http://jonthoughts.blogspot.com/)
linked this LA Times article today (http://www.latimes.com/sports/printedition/la-sp-
angels12jan12,1,4698224.story?coll=la-headlines-pe-sports ) which contains this quote buried fairly deep:

With major league owners scheduled to vote this month on whether to approve the bid of would-be Dodger buyer Frank McCourt, a source said Sunday that McCourt asked Commissioner Bud Selig whether some owners might vote against him if he spent freely to acquire Guerrero yet presented a financing package heavily dependent on loans. Selig offered no assurances, the source said, and McCourt sent word to General Manager Dan Evans to cease talks with Guerrero.
- Bill Shaikin, Los Angeles Times

While Weisman says this article casts doubts as to whether McCourt can afford the Dodgers, I think the real question is whether Selig blackmailed him out of the pursuit of Vlad, and whether that can be seen as some form of collusion.

I'd be interested in seeing the flames fanned on this one, so I'm passing it around...

I don't know about collusion, but it appears to be that in order to get into the club, you can't appear to want to be George Steinbrenner. So, if McCourt goes into the purchase saying he's going to do whatever it takes to build a winner, the "players are bleeding us dry" crowd isn't going to be too pleased. I suspect right now, they are not very pleased with Mr. Moreno, although in no way, shape or form did he over pay for Vlad. But there's not a lot the owners can do now that Arte is one of them. You have to be careful until you're a member, then you can go wild.

As Yogi once said, "It's not over 'til it's over." Roger Clemens has signed with the Houston Astros. I'm surprised it's only for $5 million dollars. That says to me he really wants to pitch for Houston, rather than being mercenary. Jose de Jesus Ortiz has more in the Houston Chronicle:

McLane gave the hard-throwing righthander the parameters of a one-year contract offer on Dec. 23, and he worked out the rest of details on the deal with agents Randy and Alan Hendricks. After that, Clemens gave his decision to the Hendricks, who hammered out the deal.

"He told me he had decided to play and to get a deal done, so we did on Sunday," Randy Hendricks said. "I think a big factor was the outpouring of affection from the Astros fans all over Texas. His family is supportive and the Astros have been terrific throughout the process. Ultimately, the desire to help the hometown team was what made the decision (and Andy being here was extremely important as well)."

Clemens, 41, will now try to add to his 310 career victories. He will join Pettitte, Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller to throw at the National League Central champion Chicago Cubs' talented rotation of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano.

Clemens was just a few strikeouts short of Steve Carlton for 2nd place on the all-time list. I wonder if that entered into his thinking at all?

Clemens is still a good pitcher. His strikeout rate was below 9.0 per 9 last year, but is still high at 8.1. He did allow a career high 24 HR last year, which won't be helped by Minute Maid Park. He's declining, but he brings 15 win shares to the team, which is five more than any Astros starter had last year. A good signing at a good price.

Update: Michele, as usual, has strong thoughts about Clemens. :-)

Well, we didn't last too long at the Hot Stove Cool Music fund raiser last night. The event changed a lot since I attended two years ago. At that time, you needed a ticket to get into all parts of the event. Last night, you only needed a ticket to get to the music. This caused both the music area and the silent auction area to be extremely crowded. Secondly, two years ago there was no Red Sox involvement. John Henry had just bought the team days before the event, and was surprised the Red Sox were not involved. At the last minute, he donated a four tickets to a Yankess-Red Sox game with him, and it went for $3000. With the smaller crowd, it was easy for everyone at the event to say hi to Gammons and the other local Boston celebrities who were there.

The involvement of the Red Sox is great. The crowd was much bigger, and I'm sure the Jimmy Fund is raking in a lot more money. Red Sox players and management were there. There were game tickets, lunches with players and broadcasters, and Sox memorabilia for auction (I lost out on a Jason Varitek bat). But the music was too loud.

Now, I'm an old fart. This was firmly established at the 1997 All Star game in Cleveland when I was at a club in the Flats with the ESPN crew. Another 30's something member of the crew and I were trying to talk and really couldn't over the extra loud dance music. We decided we were old farts because we no longer liked getting our ears blasted.

Well, last night was even worse than that. The Paradise is a small club. I estimate the room where the bands were playing at 40 ft by 120 ft. But all the bands had the volume cranked to 11. When Buffalo Tom started their set, we listened to the first song, which was a duet, but then the whole band came out, and I could feel the shock wave from the base drum hitting my chest. At half the volume the bands would have been loud enough. As my wife said, "The band is drowning out their own singing." Maybe with five different bands, no one has time to do a proper sound check. Maybe they just want to play loud enough that no one can talk above them. Maybe I'm just an old fart. But it wasn't pleasant listening to the music last night, and that was disappointing.

So we didn't stay to listen to Theo, and it since the VIPs didn't seem to be mingling in the auction area, we left early. Still, it was fun seeing Millar and Francona being so enthusiastic about the Red Sox season, and the crowd returning that enthusiasm. This event as grown with the Sox involvement, and that's a great thing. But I think it's time to move to a bigger venue, where there's more room to be loud and more of a chance to meet and mingle.

Correction: Fixed two typos.

Dave at BaseballGraphs.com explores why Vlad Guerrero has never had a 30 win share season.

audio post powered by audblog

The Baseball Crank has an interesting post on applying established performance levels to win shares. The established performance level of a player is a weighted average of his last three seasons, with the most weight on the last season. Seasons are weighted 3-2-1. Barry Bonds, not suprisingly, is #1 on his list.

A couple of comments on his comments:

*Most of these guys are in their thirties, which is suggests that at least at the very high end, investing in players in their early 30s may not be a terrible bet.

Actually, it seems to me that they are in their early 30's after having three great years. So you want to get players no later than their late 20's.

*The most glaring absence is Vladimir Guerrero, due to the injuries and weakknesses I noted yesterday (I'd still love to have had him, though): his WS totals are a less than spectacular 23, 29 and most recently 18. Oddly, he's never had a 30-WS season.

Yes, I find that odd, also. His 2000 season sure looks like a 30 win share year to me.

audio post powered by audblog

I'm going to try to use this tonight while I'm attending the Hot Stove Cool Music Fund Raiser.

If you ever had any doubt that Rose was a complete idiot, read John Dowd's column in the Washington Post:

Following that deposition, with the facts in hand, Bart directed me to find a resolution. I spent an entire month meeting with Pete's lawyers. Bart and I agreed on the fundamental points of such a resolution: Pete would have to reconfigure his life. He would have to stop betting. He would have to make a candid response to all of the hard evidence. He would have to explain his association with all of the characters in the betting operation. He would have to submit to, and complete, a full rehabilitation. During his rehabilitation, he would be removed from the game of baseball.

I had been advised by federal authorities that if Rose agreed to these terms, he would not be prosecuted for tax evasion but would have to pay all taxes, interest and penalties due. Upon successful completion of his rehabilitation, he would have been readmitted to the game of baseball and could receive all honors which come with achievement and good conduct. He would have been eligible, if chosen, for admission to the Hall of Fame.

I worked for a month with Pete's counsel. They tried but could not get Pete to admit the truth. They asked if I would meet with him alone and talk to him. They believed I could bring him around. Bart approved and I agreed to talk to Pete. But Pete's agent vetoed the meeting.

We were at complete loggerheads. Pete's criminal counsel wanted the resolution we were working on but his agent would not budge. Bart, then-deputy commissioner Fay Vincent and I met with Pete's agent. He told us that Pete was a legend and would not admit to any of the allegations. It was a short meeting.

That sort of blows away Rose's argument that if he had been a drug addict, he would have been treated differently. Baseball was willing to work with Rose to fix his life and keep him in the game. It might not have worked; some people can never shake their demons. If Rose had tried rehad and failed he would have been a tragic figure, and I think baseball would have found a way to put him in the Hall of Fame. Instead, he's a loathsome individual who is quickly dissipating any good will that existed for him.

Will Carroll reported yesterday, as did the Houston Chronicle, that a some kind of deal is in place between the Astros and Clemens. Will thinks it's done, the Chronicle thinks it's done between the Astros and Clemens' agent, but Roger has to decide if he wants to play or retire.

If I were a normal, mortal Astro, part of this deal would bother me:

It is expected that Clemens will not be required to travel with the team if he is not pitching in a specific series and that the Astros will attempt to give him extra rest and to allow him to pitch at home more than on the road.

I think the extra rest is a great idea, a perfect way to use an aging but good starter. I detest the special treatment of not traveling with the team, however. I've heard my whole life that there is no I in team (although there is one in Timo). If Roger is going to play, he should be part of the team, and not just a side show.

It turns out the Marlins (thans to the commentors who pointing out this story) were not the stealth bidder for Vlad Guerrero. The Angels stepped in and grabbed Vlad (link requires registration) out from under the O's and the Mets.

In a stunning coup that establishes the Angels as World Series contenders once again and new owner Arte Moreno as one of baseball's biggest spenders, the team agreed to terms Saturday night with star outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, several sources said.

Although the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets publicly pursued Guerrero in recent days, a National League executive told The Times on Saturday he was informed by a high-ranking Met official that Guerrero had accepted a five-year, $70-million proposal from the Angels.

I'm really starting to like Arte Moreno. He saw a championship team in Anaheim that was undervalued and gobbled it up. He sees a franchise player not attracting any attention and swoops in to close the deal. Moreno wants to win, and is willing to spend the money to get there. (Steinbrenner without the bombast?)

The Angels will move Erstad to first base and player an outfield of Anderson, Guillen and Guerrero. I assume Salmon moves into the DH role full time, after splitting 2003 between that spot and the outfield. The main problem here is Erstad at first base. If you are moving the 2000 Erstad there, that's great. But right now, he's a first baseman who hits like a shortstop. He has not gotten on base nor hit for power since his big 2000 season. With Erstad's defense still top notch, he should have some trade value, and finding someone to play first who can tear the cover off the ball shouldn't be that difficult.

I woudn't be printing the World Series banners for the Angels just yet, but Anaheim fans should be very excited that they picked up Guerrero and that they have an owner who wants to win, and unlike Gene Autry, knows value in a player when he sees it.

Update: Peter Schmuck (I don't have a joke here, I just like writing Schmuck) finds the bright side of the Orioles not signing Guerrero.

Looks like the Marlins have been a stelth bidder in the Vlad Guerrero derby.

The World Series champion Marlins have made a one-year offer for more than $10 million, and Guerrero's first choice is believed to be Florida, according to Saturday's Newark Star-Ledger.

"I've heard that he would like to go to Florida if the money was appropriate," an unnamed general manager told the Star-Ledger. "My personal opinion is that if Florida came up with a $13 million or $14 million deal, he'd go there."

I'm starting to wonder if Vlad is waiting for the LA sale to be final to see if the Dodgers want to bid on him.

There's some speculation that Shawn Green will be moving to first base this year.

The workout began with all the attending players running and playing catch in the Dodger Stadium outfield except Green, who was taking grounders hit by coach Glenn Hoffman at first, with manager Jim Tracy providing instruction.

"There is a possibility we may move him to first base," Tracy said. "I don't make out my lineup on the ninth of January. We're venturing in that direction a little bit to see if we go there. Let's go over there and take some ground balls, let's just introduce this.

"The only reason I'm over there is I made a transition fairly similar. If we do go in that direction, I think he'll do a tremendous job. If it's best for Shawn Green to play first base, he'd be willing to do that."

Green had surgery on his right (non-throwing) shoulder Oct. 14. He said he feels fine and should be 100 percent by spring training.

The Dodgers have been fairly quiet in the free agent market this year, but that may be changing soon:

A vote on the sale of the Dodgers from News Corp. to Boston real estate developer Frank McCourt could take place next week when baseball owners meet in Scottsdale, Ariz.

Evans acknowledged the pending sale has complicated matters a bit during the offseason.

"I'm not saying adversely complicated," he said. "Our goals haven't changed, and our targets haven't changed. We're aware of what we have to fix -- we know we have to improve ourselves offensively. Our pitching is pretty much intact from last year."

If the sale does go through next week, it will be interesting to see if the Dodgers get involved with the remaining free agents. You would expect LA to have the money to go after some of the big names. With a private owner, I would not be surprised to see the Dodgers spending more money.

Jim Palmer on third world debt.

Rich Aurilia has signed with the Seattle Mariners. It's a one year deal worth 3.5 million. Gone is Carlos Guillen, traded to Detroit for Ramon Santiago and a minor league shortstop, which appears to make Seattle pretty deep at the position. Aurilia is a better player than Guillen; how much better depends upon whether you believe 2002-2003 represents a real falloff in Rich's abilitites, or a falloff due to injury and eye problems. If it's the latter, and Aurilia is healthy this year, the Mariners got a bargain. If not, they are only out $3 million and have to look for a SS again next year.

Meanwhile, I think the Tigers added a couple of wins. Santiago earned five wins shares last year, Guillen 12. It's a small upgrade, but enough small ones and the Tigers at least can be respectable in 2004.

Update: Shawn at The Greatest Game isn't crazy about this deal from Seattle's point of view.

John Beard sends a link to this story. It seems Houston has offered Roger Clemens a 1-year contract, although the terms are not disclosed. Clemens seemed pretty sincere about his retirement, so I haven't been taking these stories too seriously. However, if he's offered a salary that's in excess of $10 million, that's difficult to turn down. We'll see.

What I also found interesting in the article was the effect Andy Pettitte has had on the Astros economy:

Clemens also would be a major drawing card, which is why McLane doesn't mind raising the payroll despite losing $15 million last year.

The Astros received a major boost in ticket sales after signing Pettitte away from the Yankees on Dec. 11, prompting vice president of ticket sales John Sorrentino to hire two more employees to cope with the demand.

As one president of a National League club predicted at the winter meetings last month, the Astros can expect mostly sellouts if Clemens joins the franchise.

Marquee players bringing in the fans. In July of 2002, I talked about this in two posts (this short one and a longer follow up. Sometimes it's good to spend a little more money if you think it will put some fannies in the stands.

To the right is a list of advertisers. The latest one, Tony's Blog, is a new sports blog. Give his ad a click, and scroll down to a Reds fan's view of the Pete Rose situation.

If you have a new blog, blogads are a great, inexpensive way to get your link seen. Click here or on the link at the bottom of the ad strip to sign up.

Jayson Stark outlines why Selig may be changing his mind about reinstating Rose:

For nearly 15 years, baseball has allowed Rose to position himself as a sympathetic martyr in the eyes of a huge segment of the public. Now, all of a sudden, he isn't looking so sympathetic.

After years of living with all the calls and letters from fans urging Selig to bring the Hit King back into baseball, people in the commissioner's office say they've been stunned by the reversal of that tide in the last week. Since Monday, the anti-reinstatement calls and emails have vastly outnumbered the pro-Pete sentiment, they say.

"He's done a lot of damage to himself in the court of public opinion," said one source. "And that's the court he's always thrived in."

I'm not sure how many opinions have changed, but until Monday, the people against Rose had no reason to call the commissioner's office. Now they do. It's good to see.

Kristin at MadPony.com thinks Ryan Perry's new sports blog is fantastic. He does have a baseball entry on the recent Hall of Fame selections, and how he doesn't want to see Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame.

The Orioles (all though which Oriole is not clear) are saying that they are close to signing Vlad Guerrero. I wonder if rumors of a Mets deal spurred them to action. It also looks like they are going to grab Rafael Palmeiro, I assume as a DH. Palmeiro is one of those players whose careers refuse to die. He did fall off offensively in 2003, but still managed a .500 slugging percentage and nearly a .360 OBA. I'll take that from my DH. The Orioles are looking more and more like contenders. For the first time in a while, it could be an interesting four team race in the AL East.

Robert Tagorda links to and discusses a George Will opinion piece on Pete Rose. This story has appeared in comments on another post on this site, but I thought Robert's post made it worth bringing the story to the top of the blog.

Just in case you hadn't noticed, Elephants in Oakland is back blogging are a short trip to the spa to have their trunks cleaned and tusks sharpened. :-)

Rob Neyer offers a history lesson on gambling in baseball.

There is a problem, though. The timeline really isn't a timeline at all, but rather two broad points.

1865-1920: Stinking Cesspool of Greed 1989-2004: Pete Rose

Is this a gross simplification? Sure.

Is this gross simplification generally accurate? Yup.

William Jay is a Giants fan who has managed a Giants fan page up until now, but is branching out into blogging. Stop by and say hello.

East Coast Agony is a two person blog which pits a Red Sox fan vs. a Mets fan. From their initial posts, it looks like this blog is going to be a lot of fun.

Joel Jacobson writes:

One of the things I think ought to be remembered about Pete Rose is that while he was managing the Reds to successive second-place finishes he often started himself at first base instead of Nick Esasky. People forget about Esasky because vertigo ruined his career so early, but he was a genuine left-handed power hitter. If the Reds had played Esasky every day, they likely would have gotten something approaching 30 HRs and 108 RBIs from him (his 1989 numbers, his first year as a regular). Instead they platooned him with Rose, a singles hitter (and not much of one by then, either) with no speed and a bad glove.

Over 1985-1986, when Esasky was 25 and 26, his batting average was exactly the same as Rose's, and his on-base percentage was a little better, and his slugging average was 139 points better. But Rose gave himself nearly as many at-bats as he gave Esasky.

I'm convinced the Reds could have won several more games during those years if they had been managed by someone who had started Esasky and saved Rose for pinch hitting. And if they won a few more games, they might have won some pennants instead of being perennial runners-up. In other words, Rose playing himself probably cost Cincinnati a pennant or two.

I think there's only three ways of looking at Rose's managerial decision to play himself when he had a much better alternative on the bench. Either (1) he was out of touch with reality to the extent that he honestly believed he was a better hitter than Esasky; or (2) he cared more about padding his stats and enjoying himself than about whether his team won; or (3) he was betting on the Reds to lose.

The first alternative is basically an insanity defense, and while there's some evidence to back it up it's pretty far-fetched. The second alternative requires us to believe Rose's competitive desire to win wasn't the dominant aspect of his personality, although we are constantly told the contrary was the case. But the third alternative is consistent both with his competitiveness (he gets to beat the gamblers) and with the well-documented greed that sent him to jail.

I think Rose the player-manager bet on his team to lose, and then made it happen.

I actually think choice (1) may have had a lot to do with it. Rose was intensely competitive, which would make him think he's not only a better hitter than Nick was, but he probably thought he was the best hitter on the team. Interesting speculation, however.

Two people have been charged with the murder of Dernell Stenson and will face the death penalty. I still haven't heard the motive for the killing, nor have I heard if these alleged killers have any relation to the woman Stenson claimed was stalking him. Hopefully, now that the case is moving along, we'll hear more about what evidence the police have uncovered.

Somehow, I missed this yesterday, but Roberto Alomar did sign with the Diamondbacks. The DBacks got him for a ridiculously low price of $1 million, with $350,000 deferred without interest until 2009. At that price it was absolutely worth the risk.

Martin Fackler of the Wall Street Journal has an interesting article on semi-pro Japanese ballplayers coming to the United States (link requires subscription). If you don't subscribe to WSJ.com, see if you can pick up a print copy, it's worth the read. It seems the economic downturn in Japan is causing business to close down their corporate league teams.

As Japan's big companies undergo drastic restructuring to weather the long economic slump, many of them are shutting down their cherished corporate baseball teams. Only about 80 corporate teams are left today, compared with 237 in the early 1990s. More than 100 former industrial-league players have reluctantly left for the U.S. in the past five years, according to Japanese and U.S. officials.

These players are a different breed from the big-name Japanese pros, who arrive in America with fat contracts and their own interpreters. Eleven Japanese played in the major leagues last season, part of a rush that began in the mid-1990s when pitching star Hideo Nomo joined the Los Angeles Dodgers. The former industrial leaguers are more like Japan's legions of salaried workers who are seeing the certainties of lifetime employment vanish and are thrust into a new, more competitive global stage.

This could be a boon for the independent minor leagues in this country:

"We see a lot more Japanese players coming over now, many in pretty dire straits," says Mike Marshall, director of operations for the Northern League, one of nine independent minor leagues in the U.S. and Canada.

In Japan, the demise of the industrial leagues is causing worry that Japan is losing an important means of nurturing young players for its professional baseball league. But for the U.S., it is a boon, especially for the farm clubs and independent-league teams below the majors. Eager to tap this new lode, Mr. Marshall in November held his first tryout in Japan's western city of Kobe, jointly with scouts from the Seattle Mariners and the Minnesota Twins. After watching more than 130 players, he chose six potential candidates.

With all the news you hear about American jobs going overseas, it's nice to see the National Pastime is bringing foreign workers here.

There are reports that the Mets have become interested in signing Vlad Guerrero. According to this report in the Washington Post, the Mets are offering fewer years than the Orioles, but a higher average salary:

The report, citing three major league sources, said the Mets' offer would be for far lower than the Orioles' offer. However, Guerrero is believed to prefer the National League as well as a city, such as New York, with a large population from his native Dominican Republic.

One of the nice things about free agency from a player's point of view is that you are able to set values on such things as playing close to home, playing in a big city vs. a small city and so forth. Of course, there should be more teams bidding on Vlad, so maybe a short contract is in his best interest to prove the back is fine, and then he can get more money later. Of course, this hasn't worked for Ivan Rodriguez.

Ivan Rodriguez also is without a team , overplaying his hand with both the Marlins and Orioles, and there's talk of him accepting another one-year deal and hoping he's more favorably appraised next winter, as if he didn't do enough with the World Series-champion Marlins in 2003.

Commenting on the Rose situation a few days ago, I wrote the following:

I don't think Pete Rose's election to the Hall of Fame is a sure thing if he's re-instated. Up until this point, there was no smoking gun that Rose bet on baseball, just a lot of evidence that led some resonable people to believe he bet, and some resonable people to believe he didn't. Now there will be no room for doubt. So the writers will have to decide if they want to let someone into the Hall of Fame who bet on baseball. The problem for Rose, however, is that you need 75% of the voters to name you on your ballot. A small 25% minority can keep you off. So Phil Sheridan and others don't have to convince a lot of people. I bet they win. :-)

It looks like this is happening already. Peter Gammons has changed his mind, and will not vote for Rose if given the opportunity. Other writers are taking the "just say no" attitude as well. This well planned mea culpa may have backfired on Rose.

Update: You can add Mark Kreidler to the list of people who won't vote for Rose.

Someone asked earlier today why I voted for Jack Morris and not Bert Blyleven on my ESPN Hall of Fame ballot. I must admit it was a gut decision; I didn't go checking all the stats at the time. I really liked Jack Morris during the 80's, and his game 7 victory in the 1991 World Series really sticks in my mind. The thing I remember about Bert was him giving up lots of HR, although that was really at the end of his career with Minnesota.

Having taken a closer look, Bert's years of peak performance were better than Jack's, and he had more of them. Morris' best years go from 1979-1988, and he accumulated 167 win shares during that time, 16.7 per year. He only had one great year after that, 1991. Blyleven's peak goes from 1970 to 1985, 16 years. In that time, he accumulated 269 win shares, or 16.8 per season. So if I'm going to vote for Morris, I should also vote for Blyleven. However, looking at both more closely, I doubt I would vote for either in the future. I try to have very high standards where the Hall is concerned, and neither really light my fire.

Note: Billy Sample on MLB.com's Hall of Fame broadcast today mentioned that Blyleven had a terrible record in 1-run games. Of his 685 starts, 235 were decided by one run. His teams were 113-122 in those starts. Bert was 56-75 in games in which he got the decision. If you turn those numbers around, Blyleven has 300 wins and he's in the Hall of Fame. So you can blame his non-election on some back luck.

Alysse Minkoff of ESPN.com Page 2 has read My Prison Without Bars and liked it a great deal.

Right away, one thing becomes as blazingly apparent as the bright red dust jacket: This is a damn good book and an enthralling read. Pete Rose is a compelling, tragic figure in this drama of his own making, and as a reader I never once felt the least bit sorry for him -- which is exactly the way he wants it.

Paul Molitor and Dennis Eckersley have been elected to the Hall of Fame.

Update: Here's the ESPN article.

Update: I'm very happy Dennis Eckersley was voted into the Hall of Fame. He was an excellent starter and an even better reliever. I really enjoyed watching him play.

It's also interesting, in light of the Pete Rose controversy, that both these players successfully battled addictions in their careers. Eck's alcohol and Molitor's cocaine addictions were not held against them.

The Royals have reached a deal with Juan Gonzalez. He'll get $4 million this year with the chance to earn another $2 million based on performance. It's a great deal for the Royals; if Juan stays healthy and plays up to his ability, it will go down as one of the great signings of the year.

It's my guess that Paul Molitor will be inducted into the Hall of Fame today. Molitor was a good player for a long time, and his 3000+ hits guarantee his admission. But there are of course, different levels of greatness. Molitor's career started in 1978 and ended in 1998. Here are the top accumulated win shares during that time:

Player             Win Shares
Rickey Henderson      494
Barry Bonds           418
Eddie Murray          416
Paul Molitor          414
Cal Ripken Jr.        398
Wade Boggs            388
Tim Raines            386
Tony Gwynn            373
Robin Yount           371
Lou Whitaker          351
Ryne Sandberg         346

Rickey came up in 1979, and this doesn't count 1999-2003. Barry Bonds didn't come up until 1986, and some of his best seasons were still in front of him after 1998. What I'm saying here is that Molitor isn't a first teir hall of famer. People think he is because he has the magical 3000 hits, but there should be more to it than that. He never had a season with more than 30 win shares (Henderson had three of those; Bonds has had 12 of those).

The writers used to separate the first tier hall of famers from the rest by electing them on the first ballot. It used to be a very big deal to be elected on the first ballot. But in recent years, anyone who is obviously admittable is getting in on the first try. Molitor is in the class of 2nd tier players, characterized by being good for a long time. I'd frankly rather see him get in on the 2nd ballot.

Instapundit has a link to Spirit of America, which is asking for donations so the Marines can bring supplies to the Iraqis when the 1st Division returns. While donating, I found this story on how baseball helped save lives in Afganistan.

I have an update on my earlier post on this subject. Will Carroll wrote and Brad commented on a Baseball Prospectus Q&A with Ivan Santucci of Questec. The relevant quote is:

Finally, to clarify one of your points, a batter's strike zone is set and adjusted for every called pitch he sees. If he has three at-bats in a game and saw a total of 10 called pitches, we will adjust the strike zone 10 times.

So according to this, Schilling is wrong.

Yes, there's a lot of baseball news out there overshadowing the event, but it is the day the Hall of Fame will announce their new inductees. You hear the announcement live over the internet at 1:30 on MLB.com.

Update: ESPN.com has a poll of readers, where you are asked to fill out the Hall of Fame ballot. You can see the results here (my picks are in italics). I find it interesting that no player polls 75% of the fans voting.

There is some buzz that the Diamondbacks are going to sign Robby Alomar. It also looks like Roberto will earn less than the $8 million dollars he was payed last year. Over Christmas, I wondered why there wasn't much buzz about Alomar:

The last two season he's put up OBA's 40 points below his career average, with no power. He's a free agent likely looking for megabucks, and teams are now smart enough to know that he's a bad investment at eight figures, and even at high seven figures.

It looks like his salary will be in the low seven figures. At that price, it's worth the risk to see if he can come back to somewhere close to his previous form. If he can put up a .370-.380 OBA for the DBacks, it will be worth the investment.

Edward Cossette voices an important concern today. Curt Schilling has made negative statements about Questec on the Sons of Sam Horn, and Cossette has reservations about accepting them at face value.

OK. Those are two statements that we are supposed to take as fact. But are they? I don't know. I assume so. I know Curt Schilling knows a hell of a lot more about it than I do. But where's the chance to hear the opposing view? If this statement were on the record with a reporter, the reporter would at some point pick up the phone and call Questec and MLB to verify and/or get further explanation/elucidation on these points.

Perhaps Questec and/or MLB wouldn't answer or wouldn't return the calls or whatever and our trusty reported would indicate that in the story and that lack of info would be meaningful on it's own. ("Hmm," the reader thinks, "if Questec is unwilling to publicly deny Mr. Schilling's claims, then those claims are probably true.")

See what I'm saying? In these cases the media acts as an arbiter, a middle man, between two opposing sides. And, to push this point, how is a player making statements in a vacuum about something, be it Questec or another subject, that different from a reporter saying "so and so player doesn't want to play in Boston anymore" without hearing it from the player himself. Isn't this the very thing players like get pissed off about with the media and what has, in the case of Schilling, prompted him to go direct to the fans?

Moreover, am I the only one who gets a queasy feeling over the whole off the record and this can only be used by SoSH and DirtDogs? Does that mean we aren't even supposed to link to it? And if it's off the record yet exists on the mother of all public spaces, the web, can it really be off the record? (Cue sounds of Star Trek computer. "Illogical. Does not compute. Illogical.")

Schilling has gone out of his way to reveal that he is on SoSH. So a statement he makes there is a public statement. It's just as public as an exclusive interview to ABC. Once it's public, you can't stop people from talking about it. And you can't stop a blogger from asking questions about it.

The answer here is that it's up to us to discover the veracity of Schilling's statements. To that end, I have written the following letter to Questec:

Dear Sir,

I write Baseball Musings (http://www.baseballmusings.com), a web log about major league baseball. Curt Schilling made the following statement on a Boston Red Sox fan web site last night:
"Questec calls balls and strikes approximately 4 feet or so from where the umpire is standing … You know how they measure a hitters K zone? First AB they take a still photo, regardless of hitters stance, even if you square to bunt, and thats your zone for the game. "

Is that statement true?

Thanks,

David Pinto
http://www.baseballmusings.com

I'll update if and when I hear back.

Update: Read the first comment below and this new post that contradicts Schilling's statement. I still have not heard from Questec directly.

Tug McGraw passed away today. Growing up in southern CT, I saw the Mets a lot in the early 70's. I'll never forget Tug walking off the mound pounding his glove on his thigh. The role of the closer was still new in 1973, but Tug did it with panache and helped define the position. In his heyday with the Mets, 1969-1973, he posted a 2.56 ERA and allowed .226 on-base average. He only allowed 30 HR in 526 2/3 innings, impressive numbers in any era.

Tug will be missed and my thoughts go out to his friends and family.

Eric McErlain has a link to a Fay Vincent interview on ESPN where Fay says Pete bet on baseball as a player (it's about 6:30 into the audio).

Scott Ott has his typically funny take on Pete Rose getting into the Hall of Fame at his blog, Scrappleface. He also links to this interview with Tom Verducci, who has gotten the only advance copy of the book.

SI.com: What do you think the public reaction will be?

Verducci: I'm really curious to see how fans react to this. Rose has remained far more popular than I could imagine all these years, especially in the way he has been perceived as being victimized by baseball. If you believed he had been wronged, do you now hold it against him that he was lying for all these years? And does he go far enough toward explaining himself? My guess is that in Cincinnati, where he's still revered, that he be wildly popular no matter what he does. Outside Cincy, it'll be interesting to see what the reaction is. I think fans want to forgive him, but they need to see at least a pilot light of contrition. I think the commissioner really took note of the ovations Rose received in Atlanta in 1999 and in San Francisco in 2002. He's going to be watching the fallout from this confession very closely.

The cat is officially out of the bag. ABCNEWS is reporting Rose admits in the interview that he bet on baseball. I don't understand this, however:

The revelation is also expected to be included in Rose's new autobiography, My Prison Without Bars, which is to be released the same day. In his interview with Primetime, Rose says he bet without knowing how drastic the penalties would be.

Rose never heard of the Black Sox? Rose never saw the rules against gambling that I believe are posted in every clubhouse? Please.

By the way, there was a Baseball Prospectus story about Rose being reinstated last August. I reported on it here. That same day, Bob DuPay denied the story. Now, some are saying Rose's admission vindicates the BP story. Not quite. Here's what they said:

Pete Rose and Major League Baseball have reached an agreement that would allow him to return to baseball in 2004, and includes no admission of wrongdoing by Rose, Baseball Prospectus has learned. According to several sources, Rose signed the agreement after a series of pre-season meetings between Rose, Hall of Fame member Mike Schmidt, and at different times, high-level representatives of Major League Baseball, including Bob DuPuy, Major League Baseball's Chief Operating Officer, and Allan H. "Bud" Selig, Commissioner of Major League Baseball.

(Emphasis added.) Obviously, there has been an admission of wrongdoing. Maybe that changed once the story got out. But it does bring into question BP's unnamed source. I'm sure we'll be hearing more from Will and Derek about this.

Darren Viola points out to me that the KC Royals are close to signing Juan Gonzalez.

Other clubs, however, still are in the bidding, agent Alan Nero said from Chicago.

"We actually started with about six, and we've got about three left," Nero said. "But I would clearly say that Kansas City is the front-runner at the moment."

Again, so much for collusion. Seems like this is a fairly healthy persuit of a good free agent.

I think it's a good pickup for the Royals. When healthy, Juan is a tremendous power hitter. He's 14th all time in AB per HR (14.98), and had 24 HR in 1/2 a season last year. If you bat him behind Beltran and Sweeney, he's going to have a lot of RBI, if he stays healthy. He's played 1/2 seasons two years in a row now, so I'd want an excellent result from a physical. Pena may also want to take the Barry Bonds approach with Juan, where you give him as much rest as possible. (It's better to have him for 130 games healthy than try for 162 and lose him for the season.)

It's nice to see the Royals are not resting on a good 2003 season; they look like they are trying to win in 2004. That should continue to bring fans back. Good for them.

There's a new blog on the block. Long time reader of this blog Shawn Bernard has started The Greatest Game, a blog about baseball with a focus on the Yankees. Stop by and say hello.

Paul Hopkins passed away on Friday. At age 99, he was the oldest living ballplayer. Babe Ruth was the first batter he ever faced, and gave up HR 59 of the 1927 season, which tied Ruth's previous HR record.

It seems Mr. Hopkins led a healthy life:

"It was only in the last month or so that he started to go downhill," said Peter Hopkins, his son.

I don't know who the oldest living ballplayer is now, but looking at the STATS, Inc. database, a good candidate is Ray Cunningham, born 1/17/1905. This site also seems to think it's Ray. The problem is Mike Kelly, born in 1902, whose status is unknown.

For those of you, like me, who are fascinated with space exploration, the Mars lander made it to the surface successfully last night. Susan was at the JPL and blogged the whole experience.

This is a great event put together by Peter Gammons to raise money for the Jimmy Fund. It's call Hot Stove Cool Music, and it's a night of great rock and roll and baseball talk at the Paradise in Boston. This year, the concert will be held on Jan. 11 (that's a Sunday night). Theo Epstein and Peter Gammons will both be performing. I went two years ago and had a great time, and I just bought tickets for myself and my wife Marilyn. If you are a baseball fan, this is not an event to miss. Hope to see you there!

Phil Sheridan has an excellent column on Pete Rose and his new book. Sheridan doesn't think Rose's alleged mea culpa changes anything:

So we will soon be overwhelmed with images of the new, contrite Pete Rose. After 14 years of defiant dishonesty, he will no doubt recast himself as the victim of a terrible gambling addiction. He will say that he has beaten that addiction, even though he remains a regular in Las Vegas and a recent Los Angeles Times column by T.J. Simers began, "Ran into Pete Rose at Santa Anita on opening day."

Santa Anita is a racetrack. Rose reminded Simers that betting the horses "is legal. There are 35,000 people here today, and I don't think I'm the only one making bets today."

No, Pete, but you are the only one of those 35,000 who needs to convince the commissioner of baseball that you are a changed man. It is legal for an alcoholic to be in a tavern at midnight, but that doesn't make it smart.

...

Pete Rose hasn't changed. Only his story has.

I don't think Pete Rose's election to the Hall of Fame is a sure thing if he's re-instated. Up until this point, there was no smoking gun that Rose bet on baseball, just a lot of evidence that led some resonable people to believe he bet, and some resonable people to believe he didn't. Now there will be no room for doubt. So the writers will have to decide if they want to let someone into the Hall of Fame who bet on baseball. The problem for Rose, however, is that you need 75% of the voters to name you on your ballot. A small 25% minority can keep you off. So Phil Sheridan and others don't have to convince a lot of people. I bet they win. :-)

Good news for the Houston Astros. Roy Oswalt has recovered from his Oct. 8 groin surgery and is cleared for full workouts:

"I'd say after the surgery I feel a lot looser than I've felt," he said. "I've always felt like tight. As far as stride, I feel a lot looser, so I hope that will help."

There was a time in July when Oswalt couldn't even push off with his right leg because of the strain.

"I think my groin is a lot looser, so I don't think it will contract as hard as it usually did," he said. "I'm cleared, and the doctor says it looks good. I don't feel anything. Now my goal is to be in good shape before I get to spring training."

ABC has landed an exclusive interview with Pete Rose to coincide with the release of his book on Jan. 8. Hard hitting reporter and sports journalist Morning fluff show host Charles Gibson will get the assignment. Where's Sam Donaldson to scoff at every statement Rose makes? Or why not John Saunders? John was among the best anchors I worked with at ESPN. He's intelligent, knows baseball inside-out, and won't hesitate to ask the tough questions. Or how about dipping into the ESPN talent pool and tapping Bob Ley, Mr. Outside the Lines himself?

It sounds to me as if Rose granted the interview to whomever would give him the most softballs to hit. The tough guy doesn't look like he wants to face the heat.

The group that runs the Broward County Fair is looking for a permanent home, and thinks the Marlins can be part of it:

Long searching for a permanent home, the Broward County Fair has made a pitch to move into the aging Fort Lauderdale Stadium, where it could stage its 11-day event and also play host to everything from Major and Minor League baseball teams to festivals, concerts, cultural events and youth programs.

In a proposal that aims to provide revenue for cash-strapped Fort Lauderdale, the fair said it can upgrade the stadium and wants to continue working with the Baltimore Orioles, whose spring training lease there ends in April.

Sounds to me like they want the Orioles for Spring Training, and the Marlins for the regular season. That would certainly increase the revenue stream.

And cricket fans, there may be something in it for you:

Major League Cricket President and CEO Bernard Cameron said his organization is supporting the fair's bid and hopes it can include cricket matches and a cricket academy.

"We would gladly be their first tenant, whether it be operating with a lease or sublease," Cameron said.

The Bridgeport Bluefish have professional lacrosse at their stadium. Different fish, different secondary sport.

Darren Viola points me to this opinion piece in the NY Times by former commissioner Fay Vincent:

So word is that Pete Rose finally admits in his new book that he bet on baseball. I guess I am supposed to feel vindicated since he spent the last 14 years calling John Dowd and me names. Mr. Dowd was the baseball lawyer who did the investigation of Mr. Rose and prepared a report we're now told was accurate. Next we're likely to have the spectacle of Mr. Rose being embraced by Bud Selig, the baseball commissioner, and, like the Prodigal Son, ushered to the front row of baseball's most honored citizens.

Pardon me while I rise to urge some caution. Ever since St. Augustine set the bar pretty high, there has been a certain style to confessional tomes. Now we have a mea culpa by Mr. Rose and no saint is he. Augustine, having lived it up, saw the light and wrote with a sense of guilt and regret. He even anguished over having stolen a pear. Early reports are that Mr. Rose confronts his past with very little remorse. Between him and Augustine, there is little doubt whose book will live longer.

This basically confirms Rob Neyer's theory that Rose was going to admit gambling in the book. It also reinforces the Pete Rose paradox; if you deny betting you're suspended for life, but if you admit you broke the rule that got you suspended, you're reinstated.

If Rose is to come back to the game, I hope he's not allowed a complete return. Let him in the Hall of Fame if the voters see fit; let him visit ball parks and talk to players. Let him be an advance scout. But don't let him back in a dugout. I don't see how he can be trusted with a team again.

Seems the government ban on ephedra hasn't hurt sales too much.

Ephedra is flying off the shelves at Absolute Nutrition in Chicopee.

The federal Food and Drug Administration's recent ban of the weight-loss stimulant is boosting owner James P. Magagnoli's sales of the product, not reducing them.

"I had a guy call up yesterday and order five, two-month supply bottles and others have called to get things put on hold or charge (large quantities) to their credit cards," he said. "I am buying a couple of cases for myself."

Despite the FDA warning and that the product has been linked to 155 deaths as well as strokes and heart attacks, consumers and health professionals remain divided about the stimulant's safety.

People are dying from using this herb, the federal government thinks it's dangerous enough to ban sales, so let's go out and stock up! Sounds like some people are trying for a Darwin Award.

According to this article on ESPN.com, the Yankees are close to signing first baseman Tony Clark. This is one of those good news bad news deals. The bad news is that Tony Clark is no longer a very good first baseman. He had a great season in 1997, and three good seasons, but hasn't done anything since 2001. Basically, he's a lousy backup. On the good news side, if the Yankees are willing to have a lousy backup, I suppose that means that they think Giambi will be able to play most of the time. If his rehab is going well, that's certainly a positive for the Yankees.