Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 31, 2006
Smuggling Cubans
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And we're not talking about cigars:

An agent for baseball players illegally smuggled Cuban players into the United States, eventually shipping them to California in hopes that they would be signed by major league teams, federal immigration officials said Tuesday.

...

Prosecutors say Rodrigues and Dominguez traveled by boat to Cuba on July 28, 2004, and loaded 22 Cubans aboard, but were intercepted by U.S. authorities at sea. Less than a month later, on Aug. 22, 2004, authorities say the two men successfully brought 19 Cubans into the country.

According to the indictment, the defendants transported the athletes to Los Angeles by van, rented an apartment for them, provided them with food and clothing and began training them. It could not be immediately determined if any of the Cubans have been signed by major league teams.

It seems to me we should be encouraging people who want to escape from Cuba, especially if they can play at the major league level.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 PM | Crime | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Si Simmons Passes
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The oldest living professional player, Si Simmons, passed away:

Si Simmons, the former Negro leagues baseball player who was believed to be the longest-living professional ballplayer in history, died Sunday in at a retirement home in St. Petersburg, Fla. He was 111.

Simmons was just discovered this summer.

The discovery of Simmons made him a minor baseball celebrity. To celebrate his 111th birthday on Oct. 14, the Center for Negro League Baseball Research organized a party at Simmons's nursing home that attracted 300 people, including 39 former Negro leagues players.

Carl Boles, who later played the outfield on the 1962 San Francisco Giants, presented Simmons with a plaque from the Society of American Baseball Research that recognized him as the oldest living professional ballplayer ever. And the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, - whose games Simmons still occasionally attended with his church group, gave him an official jersey with No. 111 on the back.

My condolences go out to his family and friends. It's great to see he was active and alert to the end.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Silva Renewed
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The Minnesota Twins exercised their option on Carlos Silva today, hoping 2006 was an outlier for the pitcher:

Silva had a down year, going 11-15 with a 5.94 ERA last season and taking himself out of three games. But the free agent pitching market is thin, and the Twins need starters. They couldn't afford to go to arbitration with Silva, who had one such year left, or let him go and create a bigger hole in their rotation.

The Twins have starters Silva and Johan Santana under contract for next season. Brad Radke is expected to make his retirement official this month. That leaves Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, Scott Baker and Glen Perkins as candidates to fill out the remaining rotation. All four have less than three years of experience, making them under the club's control.

The Twins will hope next season that Silva will pitch more like he did in 2005, when he was 9-8, 3.44 and walked nine batters in 188 innings.

Minnesota feels they need another veteran in the rotation. If Silva returns to form, the $4.35 million salary is a bargain. If not, it's not that much money and Silva walks at the end of 2007. Although his walks were up in 2006, they're still very low. It's the home run increase that really killed Carlos, as he allowed nearly 2 per nine innings, the highest rate in the majors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:54 PM | Transactions | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Defectors Week
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The Brewers match the Pirates and sign a Cuban defector who's been out of baseball for two years.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:52 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Show Stopper
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George Steinbrenner's grand daughter gave a knock-out performance in Cabaret on Sunday.

Pauper Players' Sunday afternoon performance of "Cabaret" was cut short when Department of Public Safety officials responded to a call that a man was suffering from chest pains, DPS spokesman Randy Young said.

Sophomore Emily Riehl, who was in the audience, said the man was New York Yankees principal owner, George Steinbrenner.

Steinbrenner, 76, was in attendance to watch his granddaughter, junior Haley Swindal, perform the lead role of Sally Bowles.

Young said the man was "conscious, alert and breathing" when DPS officials arrived at Playmakers Theatre between 3:30 and 3:41 p.m.

The incident left some audience members shaken and forced the company to cancel the performance.

Steinbrenner is reported to be fine and at home. Hat tip, Deadspin, which is interested in your taste in Broadway show tunes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Schmidt's Worth
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Lookout Landing makes a case for not paying Jason Schmidt more than $10 million a year.

Any contract talk should operate under the assumption that, as an aging pitcher, Schmidt is unlikely to exceed his 2006 performance. Have him repeat his season in Safeco and he probably puts up an ERA around 3.80-4.00. Over 200+ innings, that guy's worth up to $10m or so, maybe a little less (I'm feeling generous). So even allowing for total consistency over the next several years, you're looking at an absolute max of $30m/3yr - $40m/4yr. I don't think that's going to get it done (although the latter has an outside shot).

But what are the odds that Schmidt staves off further decline for the life of his contract? Although his PECOTA page hasn't been updated for 2006, his list of Baseball-Reference comps is terrifying (this isn't authoritative by any means, but still). He turns 34 next January, his strikeout rate has dropped 24% in two years, and as a power pitcher with a history of high workloads he carries an elevated risk of injuries causing him to miss time or pitch worse. Plus, his walk rate's already teetering on the edge of acceptability, and any drop in command could make all kinds of bad things happen. Suddenly you're looking at something like (say) $25m/3yr - $32m/4yr, and that's definitely not going to cut it.

I don't want to get carried away and proclaim that the end is nigh for Jason Schmidt's career, because I don't think it is. Even in what looks like the early stages of an age-related decline, he still has a lot to give before he loses his usefulness, and after starting 32 games in 2006 it seems silly to call his durability into question. But at the same time, he and his agent are going to be asking the market for a #1-type contract, and the smart money's on Schmidt not holding up his end of the bargain.

The only problem with this analysis is that we don't know what the market will bear. I suspect Jason is better than most pitchers who are available via free agency this off season, and that alone will drive his price up. At any price, Schmidt is not going to turn the Mariners into champions. There are tons of holes offensively with only the leadoff hitter posting a decent OBA and the heart of the order supplying minimum power. Johan Santana would have a tough time winning with that offense. Spending a lot on a simply good pitcher isn't the best place to put the Mariners money.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:58 AM | Free Agents | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 30, 2006
Pirating a Cuban
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It looks like the Pirates signed a Cuban defector.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 PM | Transactions | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
One Year at a Time
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The Red Sox exercised the option on Tim Wakefield's contract:

Early in the 2005 season, Wakefield agreed to a $4 million, one-year contract extension through 2006 that gave the Red Sox the ability to keep their longest-tenured player for the rest of his career. The team can keep renewing his contract annually at the same salary.

"I want to pitch as long as my body will let me," he said.

If he's anything like Phil Neikro, Wakefield has a lot of renewals in front of him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM | Transactions | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Reynolds vs. ESPN
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Harold Reynolds is going after ESPN:

"I have tried everything possible to handle this situation quietly behind closed doors. After numerous conversations and multiple mediation discussions with ESPN executives, it is clear that ESPN had no intention of solving this problem amicably," Reynolds said in a statement.

"For 11 years, I served ESPN with enthusiasm and dedication. It is unfortunate that ESPN has handled this process in an unprofessional manner. At the end of the day, my integrity, reputation and family are my top priorities, and for those reasons I need to set the record straight and clear my name."

ESPN spokesman Josh Krulewitz said Monday that the network had been made aware that Reynolds either has filed a lawsuit or plans to in coming days.

Good luck to Harold. I remember from STATS, Inc's negotiations with ESPN that their lawyers were sharks I hope Reynolds is ready for a very nasty fight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 PM | News Media | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Free Agents
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For those looking for a list of free agents, FoxSports.com posted one. ESPN has a link, but it doesn't work yet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:49 PM | Free Agents | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Getting Some Exercise
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The Chicago White Sox exercised their options on three players today:

Mark Buehrle, Jermaine Dye and Tadahito Iguchi all were instrumental in helping the Chicago White Sox win the World Series in 2005. Nearly 12 months later, the White Sox decided to retain their services.

It's clear to see why. With Buehrle making $9.5 million, Dye $6.75 million and Iguchi $3.25 million, all of them are a steal. Dye's especially interesting. He'll be 33 in 2007, and the White Sox essentially get him for a second walk year. That will give him plenty of incentive to perform well again. At the same time, Chicago avoids a longer term commitment at an age where a decline in production is more likely than not.

Given the price #2 starters commanded in recent years, Buehrle is probably worth $15 million on the open market. And Iguchi's good OBA with some pop at second base would likely put him close to seven figures on the open market. The White Sox are getting a lot of value for not a lot of money.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:19 PM | Transactions | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Thanks
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I just wanted to say thank you to the person who donated money via the Amazon Honor System. Most of those donations are anonymous, so I don't know about them until Amazon transfers the funds. Thanks for your support!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:59 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Collusion or No Collusion?
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Maury Brown now believes the collusion agreement in the CBA is not a big deal:

Fast-forward to the new CBA. What appears to have been negotiated is a number of these outstanding grievances that have been sitting in limbo waiting to be addressed. In the case of the grievances regarding collusion, it appears what has happened is a case where management said, "Look, we don't want to have this issue from 2002 clouding the new agreement. Agree to settle these outstanding grievances involving claims of collusion, so that we can place wording in the new agreement that says this matter from 2002 can no longer be grieved. Let's not sour this new deal with these matters from the past."

So, apparently, the sides agreed on the matter. The paltry dollar figure associated to the settlement underscores that this was more of a book-clearing incident, than the type of colluding we saw during the '90s.

The 1980's actually. During that era, teams refused to offer players contracts. So players like Tim Raines, one of the great leadoff men, missed their big payday. The more recent alleged collusion is more of a price fixing scheme:

Bill Madden has confirmed that offers "were actually being determined for the clubs by MLB's central office."

But we knew about this. The league was advising teams on the value of free agents, since, I guess, some GMs are mathematically challenged. Collusion would occur if teams refused to bid over that level. I'm not sure that happened, but the settlement made the question moot. This is similar to a defendant paying off a plaintiff to make a case go away, because it's cheaper than actually defending your innocence. In any case, any collusion that occured recently was on a much smaller scale than what happened in the late 1980s.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:54 PM | Union | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Blue Jays Ways
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Allan Ryan takes a comprehensive look at the needs of the Blue Jays in the off season. Here's one:

A 3-4-5 type of starter, maybe two, if they can't re-sign free agent Ted Lilly; a No. 4-5 type if they do.

In general, I don't want a rotation that actually has a 3-4-5 starter. I'd much rather own a rotation that consists of three or four #2 starters. Now, if all you can afford is a pitcher with a 4.20 ERA, I understand the targeting. But you really should be looking for a number 2 starter who for whatever reason looks to everyone else like a number three starter (bad defense behind him led to a high ERA, for example). Then you get a deal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Burrell for Soriano?
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Marcus Hayes writes on how the Phillies might eat some of Pat Burrell's salary to bring Alfonso Soriano on board. It's an interesting switch; Soriano is a year older. Burrell's career OBA is about 30 points higher than Soriano's, but Alfonso beats him in slugging percentage by 30 points. Soriano brings speed and an excellent base stealing resume with him. Alfonso is going to go for about $15 million a year, whereas Burrell with get $13.5 million a year over the next two seasons. Do Phillies fans feel the extra money is worth it, especailly if the team ends up paying part of Burrell's salary?

There's also the possibility that the Phillies keep Burrell and put Soriano in right. I like that a lot better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 AM | Free Agents | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)
Rising and Falling in the Fall League
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The Hardball Times notes some good and bad performances by top prospects in the Arizona Fall League. Note that the sample sizes are very small.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 29, 2006
Confident Tigers
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Some members of the Detroit Tigers are talking about a dynasty:

``Hopefully, we look back in just a few years and see that this was a building block for our organization,'' 23-year-old pitcher Justin Verlander said, in the aftermath of the Tigers' 4-2 Game 5 World Series loss to St. Louis. ``Maybe it becomes a dynasty. Who knows?''

A dynasty?

``Could be,'' Verlander said. ``Absolutely. Definitely.''

A dynasty?

``Absolutely,'' 21-year-old pitcher Joel Zumaya said. ``We've got plenty of good years ahead. Like (manager Jim) Leyland said -- and like I'll say -- this is just the beginning. There are good years to come.''

A dynasty?

``Please understand that (Verlander) is 23,'' 41-year-old pitcher Kenny Rogers said. ``You don't use words like that except in the past tense. But this team will be formidable for I don't know how many years to come. I think the young guys know they'll get another chance.''

The pitching is certainly young and good. But the best offensive players are over 30, and only Granderson is truly young. The good news is that if the pitching remains as good as it was in 2006, you don't need much of an offense to win. Simply putting a slugger at first base improves the Tigers run scoring. I can see them getting back next season, although they have plenty of competition from Minnesota and Chicago.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:25 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
MVP Poll
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John Sickels took an MVP poll and the results are interesting. I agree with the NL winner, but like John I'm surprised that the vote was so lopsided.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:37 PM | Awards | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Mariners Bind
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John Hickey writes on the Mariners needs and shows the problem with signing too many free agents:

Seattle has had three consecutive last-place finishes, and if things are going to change, general manager Bill Bavasi and his crew see the need for an influx of starting pitching. Whether by trade, by free agent signings or by posting (in the case of Japanese star Daisuke Matsuzaka), the Mariners need to add a minimum of two, and maybe three, starting pitchers.

The reason they need to go that route?

Don't look for the Mariners (or many other teams) to move quickly in free agency. If a club waits until the first week of December, after clubs have offered their own free agents salary arbitration, the signing club can get the player without giving up a draft pick.

With the Mariners having had paltry drafts since the 2000 season in part because of numerous free-agent signings, Seattle management is particularly cognizant of the importance of not losing high picks in the June draft of high school and college players.

It's a vicious cycle. Teams sign top free agents, lose draft picks, and when those free agents age or don't work out, there's no one in the minors to trade or promote. So the team ends up signing more free agents, and fall further behind in the minors. Sometimes a team needs to step back and take a few losing seasons to rebuild the minors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:24 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Hope for Ohio
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The Beane Count for 2006 gives some hope to fans of the Indians and the Reds, as both Ohio teams finished first in their leagues in the Rob Neyer stat that uses home runs and walks collected and allowed. No team dominated every category this season, but the Indians were good in all of them. The Indians main problem this year was defense. They put up the second lowest DER of any AL team. Combined with the second lowest K per 9 in the AL, also those extra balls in play turned into hits. Some combination of better defense and more strikeouts to take pressure off the fielders should help the team in 2007.

The Reds dominated three of the four Beane Count categories, finishing 2nd in offensive home runs and walks, and first in walks allowed. But they were dead last in the NL in home runs allowed. The Reds offense is fine, their pitchers keep batters off base. They just need to reduce their fly ball percentage, which was 39% in 2006, not the highest in the league but close. Given their home park, it's dangerous to be high in that stat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Saving Outs
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It's nice to see Bruce Bochy has a little Earl Weaver in him:

While not considered a "Moneyball" manager -- he was accused of relying too heavily on veterans in San Diego -- Bochy subscribes to some of its stat-based tenets. Over the past five seasons, the Padres had the fewest sacrifice hits of any National League club.

"I don't like to give away outs," he said.

That's good news for the Giants. San Francisco was fourth in the NL in sacrifices last year, the Padres 14th. Of the four teams that made the playoffs in 2006 from the NL, the Mets with 77 sac bunts ranked sixth in the NL. Giving away outs in 2006 wasn't a great way to win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
I Must Have ESPN
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This is just too weird. For some reason, I was thinking about how I don't watch the NBA anymore, and really haven't followed it since the Larry Bird/Magic Johnson era. I was wondering what's going on with Red Auerbach, and I couldn't remember if he was still alive.

So today, I open up the ESPN home page, and there's the story that Red died yesterday.

I have a Red Auerbach story. I was traveling from Boston to New York on the Eastern shuttle in the late 1980's. As I boarded the plane, I noticed Red was waiting to board, smoking a cigar. At that time, smoking was banned on short flights. Red was waiting for the last minute to get on the plane so he could finish his cigar. As he walked off the plane in New York, he held a cigar in his mouth, and the second it was legal he lit the stogie.

During the 1970s, CBS gave a Red a half time feature, Red on Roundball. He would use current and former NBA players to teach to basics of basketball. It was a great series, fun to watch and educational at the same time.

Red led a long and successful life. He's commemorated in championship banners and a Boston statue (anyone can sit on a bench with Red). We all should be so accomplished.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Deaths | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 28, 2006
Joe Niekro Passes
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Joe Niekro died on Friday:

Niekro died Friday in Florida from a brain aneurysm at age 61.

Astros president Tal Smith, the general manager for part of Niekro's stint in Houston, saw Niekro last season and said he still had the sense of humor Smith remembered when Niekro was an Astro.

"You always knew Joe was around," Smith said. "He would always make his presence known by agitating somebody. But he was a fun-loving guy and always the center of activity."

Joe was known for his sense of humor:

Ashby said Niekro also would send sports writers scrambling by starting a false rumor within earshot.

"He'd be walking along and he would suddenly say, 'Hey, what do you think of so-and-so getting traded?' just to see if he could bait the writers into writing a story," Ashby said. "He always had something witty like that going on."

Niekro had his own scandal as well:

In 1985, the Astros traded the 40-year-old Niekro to the New York Yankees. He finished his career in Minnesota, where he pitched in the World Series for the only time, in 1987.

Earlier that season, Niekro was suspended for 10 games when umpires discovered a nail file in his pocket. Niekro said he was filing his nails in the dugout, but baseball officials didn't believe him.

It's a classic highlight, as he tries to toss the file away without the umpires seeing it.

Joe and his brother Phil combined to win 539 games in the majors. Joe's son Lance is currently playing for the Giants, making them one of the many successful multi-generational families. My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:40 PM | Deaths | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Taking Turns
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Devon Young points out that the last six World Series champions came from each of the six divisions:

  1. NL West (D'backs)
  2. AL West (Angels)
  3. NL East (Marlins)
  4. AL East (Red Sox)
  5. AL Central (White Sox)
  6. NL Central (Cardinals)
Posted by StatsGuru at 03:45 PM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Boring Post Season
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This certainly wasn't the most inspiring of post seasons. Only one series was truly competitive. Only the Mets and Padres won a game facing elimination. Of a possible 41 games, 30 were played. There was a distinct lack of drama.

There were no huge managerial goofs. The biggest one I thought was not starting Bonderman in game 1 of the World Series, but it's not clear it would have made a difference. No one obviously left a starter in too long or used the bullpen ineffectively.

Jeff Weaver and Kenny Rogers were good redemption stories, at least Rogers was until he was suspected of cheating. Weaver very likely saved his career, adding to Dave Duncan's legend.

And it's good to see Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen win a series. Edmonds is running out of time in his career, and the injuries he sustained this season make me wonder how long he'll go on. Rolen is one of the great third basemen, and I'd hate to see Pujols go through his career like Barry Bonds or Ted Williams, a great hitter who never won a championship.

But given the dramatic series and great stories from 2001 on, this post season paled in comparison. And that's all right. Sometimes, you need a boring year to remind you of the greatness of years like 1986.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 AM | Post Season | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Everyone In
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I've been wondering if the new CBA eliminated deadlines for a team to sign one of its players who file for free agency. The answer is yes:

Under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, a five-year deal reached Tuesday night, there is less of a time constraint on the Giants and Bonds to get something done on a new contract.

The previous labor agreement mandated that if the Giants had not offered Bonds arbitration by Dec. 7, they would be unable to sign him until May 1. Now, the club can still negotiate with the 42-year-old Bonds even if it doesn't offer him arbitration by the new Dec. 1 deadline.

The bigger story here is what will happen to Barry Bonds? Will a team take a chance on him? Has an edict come down from on high that no one touches him? Does he try to go to somewhere with good home run characteristics that make his quest for Aaron's record more easily obtainable? The bidding should start soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM | Union | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 27, 2006
Cardinals World Champions
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The St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series on the strength of their pitching. They end the series allowing just 10 earned runs in five games, an ERA of 2.05. They struck out 37 Tigers while walking just 8 in 44 innings. The Tigers managed to hit just .199 against the Cardinals. This staff handled the Mets, and handled a very similar offense presented by the Tigers.

The Tigers didn't do badly pitching, either. They posted an ERA of 3.00, but allowed eight unearned runs. With the offense not hitting, it didn't really matter. The big difference between the two teams was the walks. The Tigers gave up 23 free passes. St. Louis only hit .228, but with all the walks they put up a much higher OBA.

Congratulations to Jeff Weaver, who amazed me this October. I thought he'd be out of baseball, but he turned around his season and career with five fine outings, culminating with tonight's championship win.

David Eckstein wins the series MVP. Hooray! David and I share the same first name and the same height, so he's been one of my favorites for years. It's his second championship, winning previously with the Angels in 2002.

Tony La Russa becomes the second manager to win the World Series in both leagues, joining Sparky Anderson in that club.

Congratulations once again to the Cardinals. The almost didn't win the NL Central, but since that last weekend of the season, they've been nearly unbeatable.

Congratulations to the Tigers as well. No one expected this team to perform as well as it did. The took out the Yankees and the Athletics, mowing through two of the better teams in the league. A few better throws, and a few more selective plate appearances and they might still be playing. They have a good, young pitching staff, and I expect them to challenge for the division for a while.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:32 PM | World Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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Zumaya retires the Cardinals in order in the eighth. The Tigers are down to their last three outs, and need two runs to keep the game and their season going.

Update: Wainwright starts the ninth with two balls to Ordonez.

Update: Ordonez hits a 3-2 pitch off the glove of Wainwright, but Belliard is able to charge and throw out the slow batter. Two outs to go.

Update: Wainwright gets ahead of Casey 0-2, but Casey works the count full. Casey then lines a double off the wall in right center to bring the tying run to the plate, and keep Detroit out of the double play. Ivan Rodriguez will bat with Santiago pinch running at second.

Update: Ivan checks his swing and grounds back softly to the pitcher. That brings up Polanco, and if anyone is due, Polanco is the man.

Update: A wild pitch makes the count 3-2 on Polanco and puts Santiago at third.

Update: Polanco walks on a low outside pitch, and Inge comes to the plate. A long hit can tie the game.

Update: Inge falls behind 0-2, then swings and misses at Wainwright's final offering to end the game. St. Louis wins 4-2 and are the 2006 World Series Champions! Congratulations to the Cardinals on an improbable post season!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:08 PM | World Series | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Dusty La Russa
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Tony La Russa sends Weaver out for the 8th inning, but the broadcast notes that no one was warming up in the St. Louis bullpen. That's how Dusty got in trouble in game 6 of the 2003 NLCS. After an out, Flores starts warming.

Update: Weaver still going strong, strikes out Monroe.

Update: Jeff strikes out Guillen for the third out in the 8th. That's nine strikeouts for Weaver through eight innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:57 PM | Management • | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Verlander Done
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Rodney starts the seventh for the Tigers. Verlander throws just 58 of 101 pitches for strikes, but only allowed one earned run.

The Tigers make another mistake as Eckstein reaches on an infield hit as Guillen double clutches on a grounder. I don't know why Guillen wasn't charged with an error.

Update: Rodney walks Wilson to bring Pujols to the plate with two on and none out.

Update: Pujols pops to Polanco for the first out.

Update: Edmonds flies out to shallow right. He needs one more out to get out of the inning.

Update: Rolen just misses a double down the line as the ball lands foul, but he then goes the other way and drops a single in front of Ordonez. Eckstein scores and the Cardinals put an insurance run on the board. It's 4-2 St. Louis.

Update: Belliard taps out in front of the plate. The Tigers have two inning to get two runs, or else it's home for the winter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pujols' Defense
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Polanco leads off the seventh with a grounder wide of first. Pujols dives, and throws from his back to Weaver covering at first. The throw is low, but Weaver digs it out to get the out. Watching the play live, I thought Polanco wasn't running hard to the end. He might have thought with Pujols on his back, there would be no play. I'm going to go back and look at the play on TIVO as Weaver retires the side in order.

Update: I'll take that back. Polanco was running hard all the way. It's just a great play by Pujols and Weaver.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Duncan Makes McCarver Look Smart
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Tim McCarver's been saying for two innings that Duncan should be out for a better defender in right. Casey flies to the wall with two out and Duncan doesn't make the catch. The official scoring is a double, but it's a ball that was catchable. Rodriguez will try to drive in Sean.

Update: Weaver strikes out I-Rod to end the inning. Jeff's struck out seven through six innings. He's shown great control, throwing 53 of 74 pitches for strikes.

Update: La Russa makes the move in the top of the seventh. Taguchi takes over in right, Wilson comes in to play left.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 PM | League Championship Series • | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Through Five
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Both Weaver and Verlander throw scoreless fifth innings. Justin is at 91 pitches after a nine pitch 5th, and may get to pitch in the sixth. It's still 3-2 Cardinals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals Comeback?
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With one out, Molina and Taguchi pick up singles to put runners on first and second with one out in the bottom of the fourth.

Update: How many times in my life do I have to write, "GET THE SURE OUT!" Weaver bunts, Rodriguez points to third, Verlander has plenty of time, and throws the ball away. The Cardinals tie the game and have runners at 2nd and third with one out.

Update: Eckstein grounds to Guillen at short. Eckstein knocks in his second run of the game and the Cardinals take the lead back 3-2.

Update: Duncan pops out to end the inning. But Verlander is unable to hold St. Louis in check in the half inning after Detroit takes the lead. He has no one to blame but himself as his error leads to both runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
St. Louis Error
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The Cardinals make a mistake for a change. Ordonez flies to right, but Chris Duncan drops it as he hears Jim Edmonds' footsteps. Sean Casey sends the next pitch deep down the rightfield line for a home run, and the Tigers take a 2-1 lead. Casey only hit eight home runs all season. That's his second of this series. That's all the Tigers get. Now we'll see if Verlander can hold the lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Why is Albert Running?
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Albert Pujols leads off the bottom of the third with a single, but runs on a two-strike pitch to Edmonds. Jim swings and misses, and Albert is only halfway to second. He's easily thrown out by I-Rod. With Albert's bad leg, that play seems to hold too much risk.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
More Tiger Mistakes
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Inge makes a throwing error in the bottom of the second, then makes a base running error in the top of the third. After a double, Verlander grounds back to the box and Brandon is caught too far off second. He's taken off base, meaning he can't score on a Granderson single. The Tigers waste an opportunity in the inning and are still scoreless.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:24 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bigger Hammers
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They just showed video of Jeter and Howard getting the Hank Aaron award from Hank Aaron and Bud Selig. I was impressed with how both Jeter and Howard are much taller than Hank. Hank is six feet even. Jeter is 6' 3", Howard 6' 4". Hank is short by today's standards.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
First Hit
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Yadier Molina picks up the first hit of the game, a lead off single in the bottom of the second. Taguchi bunts, and Inge makes a nice barehand play to get So at first. When I was young, I remember being amazed when Graig Nettles made that play, and now it seems to be pretty routine.

Weaver gets the bat on the ball and grounds the ball up the middle to advance Molina to third with two out.

Update: Eckstein breaks his bat but hits a hot shot down the third base line. Inge makes a great play to stop the ball, but makes a bad throw to first. David gets a hit and goes to second on the throwing error. A great throw gets Eckstein at first. The Cardinals score first and lead 1-0.

Update: Duncan is caught looking, but the damage is done. Verlander's thrown 52 pitches to Weaver's 25 through two innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Keep the Strikeouts Coming
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For the second inning in a row, Jeff Weaver strikes out the first two batters he faces. He's retired the first five batters, four on strikeouts.

Ivan Rodriguez grounds out to shortstop. Weaver looks dominating so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Early Walk
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Verlander walks Duncan with one out to bring up Pujols in the bottom of the second. His first pitch is no where near the catcher as Duncan advances to second on the wild pitch.

Update: Verlander walks Pujols. One of Justin's problems in the post season is his high walk rate.

Update: Verlander falls behind Edmonds 3-0, but Justin comes back to get Jim to fly out to left on a 3-2 count. He needs to get Rolen now.

Update: Another wild pitch puts runners at 2nd and 3rd.

Update: The wild inning continues as Rolen walks to bring Belliard to the plate.

Update: Belliard works the count full, then grounds a medium roller up the middle. Guillen fields, and throws quickly. He doesn't get a lot on the throw, as Casey needs to make a scoop on a long hop to nip Belliard at first. Verlander is wild, but doesn't allow a hit and the game remains scoreless after one. He threw 35 pitches in the inning, however, 20 for balls. He hasn't pitched much past the fifth in this post season, and that looks like it will be true again tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 PM | World Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Game Five Underway
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Jeff Weaver strikes out Granderson to start the game.

Update: Weaver also strikes out Monroe swinging.

Update: Guillen flies out to left as Weaver completes a 1-2-3 inning. Detroit does a little better at working him than they did with Suppan last night, seeing thirteen pitches in the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bad Hair Night
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If you want a good idea of how bad the weather is tonight, especially with the wind, take a look at Jeanne Zelasko's hair.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pitching In
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Royals Authority looks at the free agent pitchers available that might be affordable and and helpful to Kansas City.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:32 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sad News
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A missing Tampa Bay Devil Rays minor league pitcher was found dead.

The body of a Tampa Bay Devil Rays minor league pitcher missing after his canoe capsized over the weekend in Independence, Va., was found.

Erik Walker was last seen Saturday with a female companion, who made it safely ashore after their canoe tipped in a swift stretch of rapids filled with underwater logs, boulders and ledges on the New River.

My condolences to his family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:56 PM | Deaths | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Collusion Settlement
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It seems there was a collusion settlement as part of the new CBA.

It is being reported, that as part of the new agreement, payments have been awarded to the players after some 50 grievances were filed regarding owner collusion during the 2002 free agency period. The total dollar figure of the payments is reported to be $12 million.

Given the small figure on the payments, this issue was most likely a matter of keeping things in check.

I always thought that collusion talk during that period wasn't that realistic. Obviously, the union made enough of a case that the owners were willing to settle without a big fight. Maybe we'll find out more when the CBA is finally published.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:15 PM | Union | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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It's do or die time for the Detroit Tigers as they send Justin Verlander to the mound to face Jeff Weaver of the Cardinals. The radar doesn't look good right now. The weather report is iffy for tonight but pretty good for tomorrow. In fact, it should be better in St. Louis tomorrow than in Detroit.

Leyland stuck with Verlander instead of moving up Rogers. Part of that is Kenny's success in Comerica Park. But the Tigers need to get their first. Verlander brings one positive with him this post season, the ability to strike out batters. He's taken out 19 batters in 15 2/3 innings with the K. But balance that against the negatives:

  • A home run every three innings.
  • A walk every other inning.
  • A defense unable to turn balls into play into outs. The Tigers DER behind Verlander in the playoffs is .643. It was .706 during the regular season.

It's been either "swing and a miss" or "swing and a drive" for Verlander. To make matters worse, the Tigers only scored one run while Justin's been in the game. So Leyland is not going with his best option to stay alive. On the other hand, he's going to need to pitch Verlander sometime, so why not show confidence in the young man? It will probably help in the future.

La Russa went the other route. After Reyes' superb game 1 performance, Tony decided he was better off with Weaver in game 5. Weaver hasn't wowed anyone with strikeouts, but he's kept his walks and home runs low. Weaver's defense kept the hits low, as they've put up a .740 DER behind him.

The signs point to a Cardinals victory tonight. A mistake free game by Detroit might provide them with a ticket back to Motown, but right now the Tigers are looking more like Leyland's Pirates teams, superior to their opponents but unable to finish the job.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 AM | World Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
You Might Think They Were Royalty
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There now appears to be a line of succession in the Yankees clubhouse:

Guessing Joe Torre's successor has long been a parlor game for Yankees fans. But never in Torre's 11 years as Yankees manager has a plan for succession seemed as clear as it does now.

Don Mattingly learned yesterday he will replace Lee Mazzilli as bench coach, several people familiar with the situation said, moving him one important step closer to the manager's seat.

So Don is now Prince of Wales?

PENELOPE: (Flirting vigorously) Do you know you look like the Prince of Wales.

CHICO: Better.

PENELOPE: In fact you have a very distinguishé appearance.

CHICO: Him I no got.

PENELOPE: Tell me. What are you doing tonight?

CHICO: You got idea?

PENELOPE: Don't you dare come to room three hundred and twenty at eleven o'clock.

CHICO: All right. I'll be there at ten-thirty.

(Both exit. PENELOPE and HARPO enter)

PENELOPE: Did anyone ever tell you that you look like the Prince of Wales? (Business) Tell me, do you know who I am? (Business) Do you know where my room is? (Business) Well, I'll be there about eleven o'clock, but of course that would not interest you.

(Business. They exit. GROUCHO and MRS. POTTER enter)

GROUCHO: Did anyone ever tell you that you look like the Prince of Wales? Of course, I don't mean this Prince of Wales. One of the old Wales. And believe me when I say Wales, I mean Wales. I know a whale when I see one.

I don't know how good a manager Don Mattingly might or might not be. But it's not like other clubs in need of a skipper are going out of their way to interview him. My guess is that when Torre leaves, the Yankees will interview four or five candidates like everyone else. Mattingly might have a leg up, but that doesn't mean he'll get the job.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:24 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Alert the Media!
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The Soxaholix says something nice about Derek Jeter. (The rest of the strip is pretty funny, too.)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 AM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
On His Back
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Doctors performed surgery on Randy Johnson's back yesterday:

"The surgery went fine. The doctor said he was thrilled," said Johnson's agent, Barry Meister. "Randy will return home to Phoenix tomorrow."

Now the Yankees will wait to see if it makes a difference.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bochy Moves North
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Bruce Bochy agreed last night to become the new manager of the San Francisco Giants.

Sources said late Thursday night that San Diego Padres manager Bruce Bochy has agreed to a three-year contract to replace Felipe Alou and will be introduced as Giants manager at a press conference today. The deal is believed to be worth between $6 million and $7 million.

Bochy, 51, met with general manager Brian Sabean and others in the front office in San Francisco on Thursday and accepted an offer to manage the Giants and move north after 24 years with the Padres as a catcher, minor-league manager, major-league coach and, since 1995, major-league manager.

He was the second longest tenured manager behind Bobby Cox. Mark Sweeney, who played for both, describes the differences between Alou and Bochy:

Asked to compare Bochy to Alou, Sweeney said, "Felipe was a players' manager. He just wasn't a communicator like most players' managers are. There are just two different styles in communication. I think Bochy just has an understanding of how hard it was as a player just playing the game.

"With Bochy, everybody pretty much knows where he stands and he lets his coaches coach."

I wonder when Brian and Bruce will be heading for Sonoma?

During his twelve years at the helm, the Padres were about as middle of the road as you can imagine. Bochy's record with the team is 951-975. They made a trip to the World Series in 1998, and won division titles the last two seasons. His lineup selection is fine. He uses the stolen base well, and he doesn't bunt too much. In other words, you give Bochy talent and he's going to maximize that talent. It's just that the Padres haven't had that much during his tenure.

But they do have more talent than the Giants right now. A couple of more good acquisitions might put the Padres over the top, while the Giants are in a rebuilding mode. It makes you wonder if Bruce was really welcome in San Diego any more.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Eckstein's Contrast
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Sam Donnellon heaps praise on David Eckstein and makes a very important point about his value at the top of the lineup:

Here's what else is: Eckstein's approach. He entered last night's game more bubbly about a .154 World Series average than any major leaguer has a right to be. Why? Because Eckstein knew he was playing his role, watching and wasting pitches at the top of the order.

His gritty and lengthy at-bats all postseason, even when they ended as outs and not doubles, have stamped a personality on a Cardinals team that survived its way into the postseason. Aside from the mountain of miscues the young Tigers have committed, Eckstein's contributions have been the most noticeable difference between the two clubs.

After falling into an 0-2 count in his first-inning at-bat last night, Eckstein saw a total of seven pitches against Tigers starter Jeremy Bonderman before squibbing a ball down the third-base side and beating it out.

The Cardinals got nothing there, except the satisfaction that they had forced pitches from the volatile Bonderman, who had blown some big leads as the Tigers stumbled down the stretch of the regular season. By the time Eckstein saw Bonderman again in the third inning, Bonderman's pitch count was well into the 40s.

At bats like Eckstein's one in the first helped push Bonderman out of the game early.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals in Command
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In the World Series preview I wrote:

Since the indication to me is this will be a low scoring series, I'm pulling the odds down to 60% in favor of the Tigers. There's just too many things that can go wrong when teams don't put many runs on the board.

Tonight, Granderson fell down, Zumaya made a throwing error, and Monroe had a ball tick off his glove. If the Tigers score big, none of those matters. But scoring under three runs a game, those little mistakes gave the Cardinals the victory, and may end up giving St. Louis the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:10 AM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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Wainwright strikes out Monroe to start the ninth. Craig is 0 for 5 on the night.

Update: Guillen grounds out to Pujols for the second out. It's up to Ordonez.

Update: Magglio swings at the first pitch and grounds out to shortstop. The Cardinals take game four by a score of 5-4 and go up 3-1 in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:00 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 26, 2006
Oh Those Base on Balls
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Zumaya walks Molina on four pitches to start the bottom of the 8th. I'm sure Leyland would like to shoot Joel right now.

Update: Miles grounds to third, forcing Molina at second. Encarnacion pinch hits.

Update: Encarnacion strikes out, but the ball gets away from Pudge and Miles moves to second base.

Update: It's a game of inches as Craig Monroe dives for an Eckstein liner and the ball just ticks off his glove. David gets a double and an RBI, his third double of the night and his second RBI.

The Cardinals go to the top of the ninth three outs away from a 3-1 series lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pitcher Boot
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Another throwing error by a Detroit pitcher leads to St. Louis runs. Rodney throws the ball away on a sacrifice, leading to two runs and a 4-3 Cardinals lead. But two doubles in the top of the eighth, one I-Rod's third hit of the night tie the game at four. Inge picks up the second one of the inning off Wainwright, giving the closer a blown save for the game. Zumaya starts the bottom of the 8th for Detroit.

And my daughter's physic's homework is done.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:44 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
3-2 At the Stretch
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I'm helping my daughter with her Physics home work, but it appears I haven't missed much. It's still 3-2 going to the bottom of the seventh. Both starters are out, and so far neither bullpen allowed a hit. Suppan got hit, allowing 8 through six innings, while Bonderman was a bit wild, issuing four walks. It was the power that got to Jeremy, however, as the Cardinals picked up four doubles, two of them driving in runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:06 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Doubling Back
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Three doubles over two innings bring the Cardinals back within one run of the Tigers. Miles effectively added a fourth double by reaching on a single then stealing second before Eckstein's two bagger drove him home in the third. Rolen and Molina each doubled in the 4th to make the score 3-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Two for Granderson
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Curtis Granderson doubles to lead off the third inning. It's the first hit of the series for Granderson. Polanco is the only one of the sorry three to still not pick up a base hit.

Update: Guillen walks with one out to bring Ordonez to the plate with men on first and second.

Update: Ordonez flies out, but Casey picks up his second hit of the night, a single that plates Granderson. The Tigers lead is now 2-0 as Sean collects his second RBI.

Update: I-Rod singles to right for his second hit of the night, and the Tigers lead 3-0 in the third. Now Polanco gets a chance to move into the hit column.

Update: Polanco grounds to short to end the inning. Bonderman gets a decent lead to defend going to the bottom of the third.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Casey at the Bat
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Sean Casey hits a one-out solo home run to put the Tigers on top 1-0 in the second. I believe all three Tigers home runs were one-out solo shots.

Update: Ivan Rodriguez breaks his 0 for with a single. He then moves up to second on a fly out to centerfield. Of course, now they're walking Inge to get to Bonderman. That's good and bad news. Bonderman won't lead off the third, but the bat is taken out of Inge's hand.

Update: Bonderman puts up a pretty good fight. He works the count to 2-2, fouls off a pitch and then grounds to first to end the inning. He did a better job going deep in the count than either of the table setters, Granderson and Monroe.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Working Bonderman
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Leading off the bottom of the first, David Eckstein reaches on an infield single. He forces Bonderman to throw eight pitches, which is more than Suppan threw in the top of the first.

Update: Bonderman coaxes a double play grounder out of Duncan to clear the bases for Pujols.

Update: Jeremy finishes the inning making Pujols look bad at the plate. Albert swings and misses badly at the first two pitches, then looks at strike three. No score after one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Game Four Underway
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Curtis Granderson is still hitless as he lines out softly to the shortstop to start game four. Monroe follows with a grounder to short, and they're not trying to work the count against Suppan so far.

Update: Guillen takes two pitches, both for strikes, then swings and misses to end the inning. Suppan's pitches to Guillen started inside then moved over the plate. Nice action for a righty vs. a lefty batter. It's a seven pitch first inning for Jeff.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Busy Day
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It's been a busy afternoon. My daughter was inducted into the National Honor Society.

Then the Bay Path College soccer team played their final home game of the season:

Then the Longmeadow High School field hockey team played their final home game:

Now time for the game!

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:58 PM | Other | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Put it on YouTube!
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A kinescope of Don Larsen's perfect game exists! Someone should digitize this fast so it doesn't get lost again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:53 PM | History | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Radar Love
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FishStripes smells mind games coming from St. Louis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 AM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Hamming it Up
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Congratulations to the Nippon Ham Fighters! They won their first Japanese championship in 44 years.

Fernando Seguignol hit a two-run homer and Yu Darvish went 7-1/3 strong innings Thursday as Trey Hillman's Nippon Ham Fighters defeated the Chunichi Dragons 4-1 to win the Japan Series.

Seguignol, who played for the Montreal Expos from 1998 to 2001, broke a 1-1 tie in the bottom of the sixth inning with a home run off Chunichi starter Kenshin Kawakami that just cleared the wall in right field at Sapporo Dome.

It was the second straight year that an American manager has led his team to victory in the Japan Series. The Chiba Lotte Marines swept the Hanshin Tigers last year under former New York Mets manager Bobby Valentine.

I wonder who will be the first Japanese manager in the US?

We recently hosted a Japanese exchange student from Hokkaido, the home of the Fighters. I'll have my daughter write and get her reaction to the victory. The Fighters moved to Sapporo in 2004, since there were too many teams in the Tokyo area competing for attendance.


Update: This looks like a very big win for a poor region of Japan.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 AM | International | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sheffield Shenanigans
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For some reason, the Yankees are reported to have picked up Gary Sheffield's option:

"This will not work, this will not work at all," Sheffield told the newspaper. "I don't want to play first base a year for them. I will not do that."

...

"I don't know what they're (Yankees) going to do," Sheffield said. "Maybe they picked it up just to trade me. If they do that, if I just (go) to a team for one year, there's going to be a problem."

Does Sheffield's contract contain a no-trade clause? If not, there's nothing he can do about a trade, since he's only been in New York three seasons. It seems to me the Yankees are either taking insurance against Giambi's wrist surgery taking longer to heal than expected or the Yankees have a trade in mind that will send Gary away or open up playing time for the veteran. With the way salaries are going, a healthy Sheffield is probably cheap at $13 million for one year.

I had assumed all along the Yankees would let Gary walk, making them younger and freeing some money for pitching.

Correction: Tried to fix the grammar.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | Players | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
Weather Report
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I'm watching the Weather Channel this morning, and they are predicting rain tonight and tomorrow in St. Louis and rain Saturday in Detroit. MLB may be better off waiting to play games on Saturday and Sunday in St. Louis, then heading back to Detroit if needed on Monday and Tuesday. It would also give them the chance to test the new middle of the series on the weekend format that goes into effect next season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 AM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Too Aggressive or Not Aggressive Enough?
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Ken Rosenthal documents the Tigers lack of selectivity at the plate and gets Andy Van Slyke's reaction:

The Tigers' well-documented impatience actually is less of a concern for Leyland and his staff, even though the team is averaging only 3.38 pitches per plate appearance in the Series.

While the sample size is ridiculously small, the Tigers' average is down from 3.86 in the ALCS, according to STATS, Inc., and far below the Giants' major-league worst average during the regular season, 3.59.

"Our problem is that we're not being aggressive in hitters' counts," first base coach Andy Van Slyke said. "If we're not aggressive, we're not going to score. We're like an NFL team running a two-minute drill with no timeouts. Our OBA (on-base-average) means NTU -- nothing to us."

Van Slyke wasn't demeaning the importance of on-base percentage; he merely was describing the nature of the Tigers' offensive attack, which isn't going to change until the team acquires different hitters.

Of course, you can't be aggressive in hitters' counts unless you take a couple of pitches to get into those counts. Leyland did change the order yesterday to put Monroe, Guillen, Ordonez and Casey together. That should help the offense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 25, 2006
Game Four Postponed
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They've called off game four of the World Series. They'll make up the game tomorrow, weather permitting.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio. Listen while you're waiting for the game to start!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 PM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hammerin' Jeter
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Derek Jeter wins the Hank Aaron award for the American League. While Jeter was the MVP, David Ortiz did put up better offensive numbers. It's not a bad call, Jeter was very close. But if it's the award for best offensive player, the David should have the crown.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 PM | Awards | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Rain Delay
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Tonight's game is being delayed by rain. The good news is that weather looks better for Thursday night:

The teams may catch a bit of a break on Thursday, the day of Game 5 unless Game 4 is pushed back. Another front bringing potentially heavy rain is on the way, but shouldn't arrive until after Thursday night's game, Britt said.

"Tomorrow night we'll be between storm systems," Britt said. "There's still a chance of rain, but the chance at gametime doesn't look as bad."

Stay tuned.

Update: It looks like the game will start around 9:20 to 9:30 EDT.

Update: The latest estimated starting time is 10:15 EDT.

Update: The game was postponed until Thursday night.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 7 PM EDT, an hour earlier than usual. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:06 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Weather Report
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Jeremy R lives in St. Louis and is leaving weather information in the comments to this post. His latest:

Actually, now it's starting to pick up. Not a heavy rain, but more of a medium one. Just got back from walking my dogs, and they were soaking wet.

This may be a short game tonight. If they don't play today, they probably won't be able to go again until Friday at the earliest, meaning games get pushed back in Detroit as well. Although given that rain is in the forecast for Saturday in the Motor City, while St. Louis is supposed to be sunny, that may not be a bad thing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:56 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Tigers send Jeremy Bonderman, in some ways their best pitcher, to the mound tonight in game four. He'll face Jeff Suppan, superman in his home park. The weather forecast does not look good tonight, but it does look better than tomorrow or even Friday. The heavy rain is south of St. Louis right now. If it stays there, the teams should be able to get in tonight's game.

Both pitchers tonight go into situations in which they excel. Bonderman is on the road, where his walk and home run rates both go down. Suppan is at home, where his walk and home run rates both go down.

Suppan, like Carpenter, faced the Tigers during the regular season in Detroit and was knocked around a bit. He gave up nine hits and three walks in five innings, but it only led to three runs. Bonderman pitched one of his better games against St. Louis, striking out eight and walking just one in seven innings of work.

There's not a lot in the way of history between Bonderman and the Cardinals. Jeremy pitched to Belliard a number of times and handled him just fine. The person Suppan's seen the most is Magglio Ordonez, who is 17 for 43 vs. Jeff, a .393 batting average. Throw in five walks and Ordonez's OBA against Suppan is .469.

Leyland is talking about changing his lineup due to the slumps of Granderson, Polanco and Rodriguez. He may just want to put Monroe, Guillen and Ordonez together in the lineup. If the three of them can put together hits, there's a good chance the Tigers will score a run. Guillen's the best hitter on the team and should be batting higher anyway.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:22 PM | World Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at a special time, 7 PM EDT. That way, you can listen to the show and not miss any of the playoff action! Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:19 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More on Draft Compensation
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METSquire doesn't like the new draft compensation rule (discussed here).

With no ceiling on bonuses, the best players will still not necessarily be selected by the worst teams, thus the point of the draft, to create talent balance in the league, is still not being effectuated. The fact that a team will have a chance to pick in the same slot next year if they can't sign this year's selection doesn't solve the problem: why would the Royals or the Devil Rays be any more likely to sign a pick next year when they couldn't sign a pick this year?

And, while players will now know by August 16th whether they have been signed or not by the team that selected them in the draft, some players will still go unsigned and will miss out on a year of development in a Major League system. Thus, my concerns have really not been addressed by the changes in the new Agreement and, unfortunately, the league and the players have missed an opportunity to fix this flawed system.

Let's take this to an extreme. Why are there signing bonuses at all? Before the draft, players were free agents until they signed with a major league club, and then the reserve clause kicked in. The time players could sell their services was at this time, and teams bid for players, often signing them to large amounts of money. This is where the term bonus baby comes from. Then, as today, the low revenue teams felt they couldn't compete with the high revenue teams, so the draft was instituted. This removal of almost all bargaining power from the players led to the formation of a union.

The only leverage the player had left was the fact that if a team didn't sign him, he could reenter the draft the next year. So players picked up bonuses to sign with a team, especially if they were considered top prospects. And until free agency came into being, this was the only leverage players had against teams.

But free agency changed that. The rules are now the big payday comes after you've played in the majors for six years. But the draft rules remained in place, and of course agents and players took advantage of these. If in fact, the draft is supposed to help the weak teams, there is a simple solution. Take away any bargaining power by drafted players. Any player would be placed under control of the team that drafted him period. If a player doesn't want to work for that team, he can find something else to do. He'll get his big payday when he proves he can play major league baseball, not before. The reason bonuses existed in the past is no longer valid. Players get a chance at the big pay day eventually.

Now, as a free market person, I don't really like that idea. Players should have as much choice as possible. One way to help would be the ability of teams to trade or sell draft choices. I don't know the objections to this on either side, but it would give teams more flexibility. Team A can't sign prospect X for whatever reason, but Team B can. Team B can trade a prospect of it's own, or even an established player. It seems like an obvious thing to do.

And finally, why can't teams pony up the money for draft choices? The league is awash in money. Revenue sharing is lining the pockets of low revenue clubs. If they're not going to spend the money on player salaries, at least spend it on draft picks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:18 PM | Union | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Deleted Mail
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Someone sent me an e-mail this moring on the CBA. I mistakenly deleted it before I was able to read it (my web mail doesn't give you a chance to retrieve deleted items). Could you please resend?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 AM | Union | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Surgery for Liriano?
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Aaron Gleeman notes that Francisco Liriano is headed for Tommy John surgery, and wonders why it wasn't done sooner.

I realize surgery is always the last resort, but injuries like Liriano's simply don't heal on their own. Had Liriano gone under the knife when it became an option, he'd be over a month into his recovery and on track to pitch in the second half. Now, even if he elects to have the same surgery, he'll have to make quick progress to pitch at all in 2007. Of course, in the grand scheme of things 2007 matters little, but that's why the Twins should have taken the long-term approach with Liriano the entire time.

Regardless of how many times the Twins stick Liriano back on the mound after a little time off, this is not something that figures to go away. Rather than risk further damage by gambling on a non-surgical option, I think it's time to put aside any thoughts of Liriano being a part of the 2007 team and do what's best for his long-term career. As counter-intuitive as it may seem, evidence suggests that Tommy John surgery is as close to a speed bump on the road to greatness as you'll get in a situation like this.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 AM | Injuries | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Hammerin' Howard
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Ryan Howard takes home the Hank Aaron Award as the National League's best offensive player. Congratulations to Ryan! The fans who voted, however, did not look at win shares.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 AM | Awards | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
CBA Changes
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Alan Schwarz rounds up the major changes to the collective bargaining agreement (CBA), although I'm still not sure about limits to free agents negotiating with the same team:

Some changes have been made to the draft-pick compensation afforded teams which lose major league free agents. Type C free agents have been eliminated, while teams that lose Type B free agents, which had previously received a second-round pick from the signing club, will now get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. (This was pursued by the union to remove the disincentive for teams to sign those players.) Those changes go into effect immediately.

The number of players deemed Type A and B has been tweaked as well. Type A free agents, whose former team continue to receive a first- or second-round pick from the signing club as well as an extra pick between the first and second rounds, will be reduced from the 30 percent of players (as determined by a statistical formula) to 20; the Type B band is reduced from 31-50 percent to 21-40.

These changes will take effect next offseason, allowing clubs which lose free agents this winter the same compensation they had always expected. Teams must still offer players salary arbitration to receive draft-pick compensation, though the deadline for that offer was moved up from Dec. 7 to Dec. 1.

So fewer players are eligible for compensation. This post says the arbitration date is eliminated, but Schwarz says the date's been changed. I'm still wondering if they eliminated the "if you don't sign with your team by a certain date, you can't sign until May 1."

The amateur draft changes are interesting, too. They're designed to dampen the growth in high pick player bonuses without putting a set price on the bonus. A team that fails to sign a high pick gets a similar pick the next year.

Teams that fail to sign a first-round pick no longer receive an extra pick after the first round as compensation, but instead a virtually identical pick the following year; for example, a team that fails to sign the No. 5 pick one year will receive the No. 6 pick the next, rather than one in the 30s or 40s. The same compensation also now exists for unsigned second-round picks, while a team that fails to sign a third-round pick will receive a sandwich pick between the third and fourth rounds.

The new system should decrease the growth of bonus payments to amateurs, as teams can walk away from negotiations with the reassurance of having a similar pick the next year. (Although that compensation pick, if unsigned, is not subject to compensation, which keeps clubs from using it over and over.) Clubs have for years wanted a system of prescribed, slotted bonuses for every high pick but learned early in the negotiations that the union would not accept it, so instead focused on stronger compensation rules.

I don't think the union gave up much here. Like everything in baseball, the bonus amount is driven by the amount of money available to teams. As long as revenue keeps rising, bonuses will keep rising. It is good that teams trying to rebuild through the draft get better compensated if a pick simply doesn't wish to sign with that team. In the long run, this should improve competitive balance.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Union | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 24, 2006
Top of the Ninth
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Branden Looper faces Omar Infante to start the ninth.

Update: Omar grounds out to third, two outs to go.

Update: Granderson flies out to left. The Cardinals need one more out for a 2-1 series lead.

Update: Monroe grounds out to third and the Cardinals win their first home game in the World Series since 1987.

The Tigers didn't do anything to make Carpenter work. He threw only 82 pitches in 8 innings. Even after his thumb cramped, Detroit didn't try to take many pitches. Carpenter takes advantage of their aggressiveness, throwing strikes and shutting out the Tigers for eight innings. The Cardinals keep the home field advantage.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:34 PM | World Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals Offense Not Done
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A walk, a sacrifice and a single put runners at 1st and 3rd with one out for Preston Wilson in the bottom of the 8th.

Update: Wilson walks. There's no place to put Pujols.

Update: Miner relieves Rodney to face Albert.

Update: I-Rod isn't having a bad enough series, and now he gets a ball fouled off his groin. That hurts to watch.

Update: A wild pitch scored Taguchi. The Cardinals now lead 5-0. Now there is a place to put Albert.

Update: Miner hits Pujols trying to go inside.

Update: Neifi Perez makes a nice play to end the inning, turning the five-three DP. The Tigers need five runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Third Hit
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Sean Casey picks up his second hit of the night and the Tigers third of the game with a one out single in the top of the eighth. All three hits so far resulted in singles.

Update: Inge hits into a double play to preserve the shutout through eight innings. Carpenter pitch total stands at 82 through eight innings, with 55 of those for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wild Zumaya
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Joel Zumaya walks Eckstein and Wilson to start the bottom of the seventh. That brings Pujols to the plate with two on and none out.

Update: A huge error by Zumaya. He gets Pujols to ground back to the box, and Zumaya tries to get the out at third rather than going for the double play at second. Inge isn't ready for the throw and the ball goes down the left field line, scoring two runs. Zumaya had the right idea, but didn't execute well.

Actually, with Pujols bad leg, he might have started a triple play.

Update: Rolen grounds out, and that's all for Zumaya. Grilli is coming in with Pujols at third and one out.

Update: Grilli gets Belliard to ground out to first, holding Pujols at third. Edmonds gets the intentionals walk.

Update: Grilli gets out of the inning, but the Tigers trail 4-0 with just two turns at bats left.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Physical Problem
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Polanco leads off the seventh with a hard line drive that is snared by Pujols. But the trainer is out looking at Carpenter's hand right now and he may need to come out of the game.

Update: It looked like a problem with his thumb, but Carpenter stays in to pitch to Ordonez. The broadcast just said it was a thumb cramp. Ordonez flies out to right for the second out.

Update: Carpenter throws another 1-2-3 inning. The thumb problem didn't seem to make a difference. The Tigers have just six outs left in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Molina Doubles
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The Tigers pinch hit for Robertson but still go down 1-2-3 in the top of the sixth. Ledezma enters the game and gives up a one out double to Yadier Molina. That's it for Ledezma as Zumaya enters the game to try to end the threat.

Update: Zumaya get Tachughi swinging for the second out.

Update: Carpenter flies out to end the inning. One nice thing about this game is that it's being played so fast the youngsters might be able to see the end of the game before bed!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Robertson Through?
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With the pitcher's spot due up in the top of the sixth, Nate Robertson is likely done. He allows two runs through five innings, and like the ALDS, it could have been a lot worse. He put eight men on base with five hits and three walks, but only two came around to score. He kept the Tigers in the game, and now it's up to the offense to score some runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Carpenter Keeps Hammering
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Chris Carpenter allows a single to Sean Casey, but that's it in the fifth inning. He's thrown just 50 pitches to shutout the Tigers through five innings. His control is perfect so far as he's struck out four and walked no one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:53 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wilson Hits Robertson
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Nate Robertson couldn't keep Preston Wilson down for long. After lining out hard in the first inning, Wilson singles to left to lead off the fourth, the first hit of the game for the Cardinals. He's now 6 for 7 career vs. Robertson.

Update: Robertson falls behind Pujols 3-1, and Albert takes the 3-1 pitch the other way for a double down the right field line. The ball bounces into the stands to put runners on second and third with no one out.

Update: Rolen walks on four pitches to load the bases.

Update: Robertson gets Belliard to ground to third. Inge throws out the runner at the plate.

Update: A rare hit for a lefty against Robertson as Jim Edmonds doubles down the right field line to plate the first two runs of the game. The Cardinals take a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the fourth. The Tigers intentionally pass Molina to pitch to Taguchi.

Update: Taguchi pops up for the second out, bringing Carpenter to the plate. Chris is a career .095 hitter.

Update: Carpenter pops up to end the inning. He'll go back to the mound to try to hold the two run lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
First Hit
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Brandon Inge singles to put the first hit on the board. Robertson is up to sacrifice.

Update: Robertson successfully moves the runner to second.

Update: Inge moves to third on a wild pitch, and then Carpenter comes close to throwing another but Molina blocks it. Granderson grounds out to second to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:09 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Man On
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Jim Edmonds draws a one-out walk in the bottom of the second to become the first base runner of the game.

Update: That's all the Cardinals get as there are no hits and no runs after two innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Swinging Early
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The Tigers go down on four pitches in the second inning. Carpenter is now at 15 pitches for the first two innings. The Tigers are doing Chris a big favor by swinging early, as he'll be able to go deep in the game at this rate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Robertson Retires Wilson
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Preston Wilson came into the game five for five with a walk vs. Nate Robertson. In his first at bat, he hit the ball hard but right at Polanco. Robertson finally gets Preston out.

Update: Robertson, like Carpenter, retires the side in order in the first. Nate manages the feat on just 10 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Carpenter Nails the First
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Chris Carpenter retired the side in order in the first. Craig Monroe swung at the first pitch, but flied out instead of homering. Chris threw just eleven pitches, eight for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More on the CBA
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The Cub Reporter looks at the new CBA, and both he and I are confused by this:

After Major League players file for free agency in the one-week period that begins at midnight the day after the World Series, all subsequent deadline dates are eliminated: Dec. 7 (for club to offer arbitration), Dec. 19 (for players to accept), Jan. 8 (last day the old club could re-sign its own free agent) and May 1 (first day a club's former player could re-sign with its former club if he went past Jan. 8 date). Also, the tender date for clubs to offer contracts to all players has been moved up from Dec. 20 to Dec. 12. And players traded in the middle of a multi-year contract can no longer demand a trade.

I take this to mean that the whole free agent arbitration deal is dead. I always thought it was a stupid rule. If you're a free agent, you should be able to negotiate with any team, including your former team. Can anyone shed more light on this paragraph?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 PM | Union | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Five Year Deal
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The most impressive thing about the new labor agreement to me is that the term is five years. Congratulations to both sides for finally coming to trust each other and trust a system that's working.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 PM | Union | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rare Plate Appearance
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The New Republic notes the that the end of the Cardinals/Mets series represented a rare event:

How often is it that you see your team come within one swing of winning a pennant, only to have it all end in that same instant? This question was all I could think about as my brother and I filed out of a drizzly Shea Stadium with 56,000 other traumatized Mets fans last Thursday night, and all I've been able to think about ever since.

Not often at all, it turns out. A search through the vast archives at Retrosheet.org, which aims to collect box scores and play-by-play accounts of every baseball game ever, reveals that Carlos Beltran's at-bat against Adam Wainwright with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 7 of the NLCS was an extraordinarily rare moment. It appears to have been only the tenth at-bat in baseball history in which each pitch could have resulted in a league pennant or championship for both the team at-bat and the team in the field.

Most of the time, the out was recorded and the series won by the team in the field. Thanks to Marc for the link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:45 PM | Post Season | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Selig Forgets History
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In an article about parity, Bud Selig delivers this whopper:

A decade ago, "I had dreams of things getting better, but in many ways this has exceeded my fondest expectations," Selig said.

Well, a decade ago, baseball was finishing nearly 20 years of parity. Starting in 1978, the World series winners were:

  1. New York Yankees
  2. Pittsburgh Pirates
  3. Philadelphia Phillies
  4. Los Angeles Dodgers
  5. St. Louis Cardinals
  6. Baltimore Orioles
  7. Detroit Tigers
  8. Kansas City Royals
  9. New York Mets
  10. Minnesota Twins
  11. Los Angeles Dodgers
  12. Oakland Athletics
  13. Cincinnati Reds
  14. Minnesota Twins
  15. Toronto Blue Jays
  16. Toronto Blue Jays
  17. None
  18. Atlanta Braves
  19. New York Yankees

So that's 18 championships by 15 different teams, with only Toronto repeating in consecutive years. That after a three-peat by Oakland, consecutve wins by the Reds and consecutive wins by the Yankees. The change of teams continued in 1997 with the Marlins winning and in 1998 with the Yankees starting their run.

What was happening a decade ago was that it appeared the leagues were becoming polarized. It was happening because local money was outstripping National money for the first time is two decades. Why? Because all baseball did was whine about the labor problem. There was a work stoppage at the start of the 1990 season, just as MLB signed a new $1,000,000,000 contract with CBS. Labor strife continued, and at the end of that four year contract, no one was willing to pony up that much money again. The league had added two more teams, meaning a smaller pie had to feed more people. Then came the 1994 strike, and no one wanted to pay much for baseball.

Why didn't the owners recognize how good baseball was before 1990? They had parity, rising revenues and rising attendance. What more could you ask for? Why weren't they happy in 1990 with what they have today?

I'll invoke Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Basically, the old guard died out. I haven't gone through every team, but I believe the only person around from the first strike in 1972 is Selig, and he no longer owns a team (Steinbrenner came in a year later, so he's familiar with the old reserve clause). In other words, there's no one left around who remembers the good old days when owners controlled the players for life. The old paradigm finally died out.

Now the owners and players argue about drug testing and luxury taxes, important issues but ones that don't infringe on the basic right the players were fighting for all along, the right to earn what the market will bear through free agency. The owners accept the arbitration rules and the smart ones sign their good, young players to long term contracts to avoid the arbitration shock. The new owners understand the system works very well for them, so they're no longer interested in rocking the boat. If baseball had not been so resistant to change for two decades, it might be even better.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:29 PM | History | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Immigrant Ballplayers
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Bleed Cubbie Blue links to a comprehensive study on immigrant ballplayers. It breaks down foreign born players by team, by country, and also provides historical information. One of the most interesting things about the study is that an increase in the number of foreign born players hasn't dampened the rise in salaries. The demand for talent is still outstripping the supply.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:06 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Medical Bills
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The Mets are making some surgeons rich this off season, especially Carlos Delgado:

Delgado had surgery on his right wrist because of carpal tunnel syndrome. Lo Duca had an operation to repair a ligament tear in his left thumb. Heilman underwent surgery for tennis elbow on his throwing arm, and the right-handed Woodward had a torn labrum in his left shoulder repaired.

Left fielder Cliff Floyd is scheduled to have surgery Wednesday on his left Achilles' tendon. Right-hander Roberto Hernandez is scheduled to have surgery on his right knee the same day.

Delgado is set to have surgery again next Monday to repair tennis elbow in his right arm.

There's going to be a lot of scar comparisons in the clubhouse come spring training.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 AM | Injuries | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Compensation Survives
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It appears that free agent compensation survived the new CBA negotiations, but in a modified form:

The new agreement will make a subtle change in compensation to teams that lose free agents, according to The New York Times, which reported teams would receive draft picks for departing high-end free agents, but not others.

There was speculation that this would be removed, but it's a great way for low payroll clubs to stay competitive. Now, however, they'll only be compensated for developing stars. I'm not sure how different that is, becuase the level of compensation did depend on the value of the player signed away.

MLB announces the deal tonight, so we'll know more then.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 AM | Union | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Moyer Extension
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff likes the Moyer signing:

Again, the off-season is young and things can change, and injuries for any pitcher can be just around the corner, but as of right now, the Phillies rotation stacks up pretty well. Couple that with the fact that the team has one of the best -- if not the best -- offenses in the NL East, and the team is looking even better.

As a neutral observer, Moyer's increased home runs per nine over the last three seasons, coupled with pitching at age 44, make me think a two year contract is generous. He allowed 1.03 HR per 9 through 2003, 1.47 since. He still walks very few batters, however, which helps compensate for the long balls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:36 AM | Transactions | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
No Joe in D.C.
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Joe Girardi withdrew his name from the Washington Nationals' manager pool:

Former Florida Marlins manager Joe Girardi, considered for weeks the favorite to become the next manager of the Washington Nationals, took his name out of consideration for the job yesterday, saying it was a decision based on keeping his young family together but simultaneously saying he could still end up on a baseball field next season.

Girardi had two meetings over the last three weeks, one with General Manager Jim Bowden and the other with Bowden and team president Stan Kasten. Girardi said the talks went well and that the decision to pull out was "very, very difficult."

I hoped Girardi took this job so he could manage against the Marlins next year. My guess is that Joe's been away from his family for a long time, between playing, coaching, broadcasting and managing. If someone is going to pull him away from that, it's going to need to be the perfect job or a whole lot of money. After all, he's getting paid to sit on his behind for the next two years, why not enjoy the new baby and the best Miami has to offer?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 AM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Game three takes place in St. Louis tonight as Nate Robertson visits Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter. Teams stack their batting orders with right-handers against Robertson. Lefties hit a mere .181 against the southpaw with a .269 slugging percentage. Righties, on the other hand, hit 100 points higher and slugged 200 points higher. His 5.91 ERA in the post season could be a lot worse. He allowed nine base runners in five innings vs. the Athletics but did not allow a run in that game. Don't expect that sort of luck to continue. Twenty-three base runners in 10 2/3 innings is not a recipe for success.

Carpenter is the only pitcher in the 2006 post season with four starts. He pitched brilliantly against San Diego, winning both starts while striking out 12 in 13 1/3 innings. He didn't do so well against the Mets, who managed three homers off the Cy Young winner in 11 innings. Chris allowed less than a home run per nine innings during the regular season. Busch should help Chris in terms of home runs. He allowed just seven at home this season vs. fourteen on the road, leading to his 1.81 ERA in St. Louis.

Carpenter did face Detroit this season, and they pounded him at Comerica Park. He allowed seven runs in seven innings and two homers. He did strikeout nine, however.

Ivan Rodriguez batted against Carpenter the most among the Tigers. Chris may provide I-Rod an opportunity to break out of his slump, as he is 9 for 26 against Chris in his career. Belliard is the only Cardinals players with extensive experience against Robertson. He's batting .320 in those face-offs, 8 for 25. However, Preston Wilson is perfect against Nate, 5 for 5 with a home run and a walk.

Overall, the matchup favors the Cardinals. They don't hit for power vs. left handers, but Carpenter is in his element tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
La Russa Speaks
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Tony La Russa addressed the Rogers situation at his news conference Monday:

La Russa's answer went on for five minutes.

He said he brought the smudge to the umpires' attention, but did not demand they search Rogers. They didn't. La Russa also said the Cardinals were aware Rogers had a similar spot earlier in the postseason.

"I said, 'I don't like this stuff, let's get it fixed.' If it gets fixed let's play the game. It got fixed, in my opinion," he said.

"If he didn't get rid of it, I would have challenged it. But I do think it's a little bit part of the game at times and don't go crazy," he said.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:25 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 23, 2006
Extra Grip
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Jon Heyman at SI.com talks to an unnamed bullpen coach about Kenny Rogers. The coach gives a symposium on what pitchers use to get a better grip, including pine tar:

"It was pine tar. It couldn't be anything else. Pitchers use pine tar, shaving cream and suntan lotion. Pitchers use them to help them grip the ball and make the ball move more. Bullpen guys sometimes keep suntan lotion in the ball bags. It's not for a tan. Pine tar works the best. It's been around the longest. But lately, more and more guys are using shaving cream and suntan lotion. There's no chance to be caught with shaving cream or suntan lotion.

"I don't know Kenny Rogers, but I'm guessing he had to use pine tar because it was so cold. He probably usually uses shaving cream or suntan lotion because they blend in. A lot of guys use shaving cream or suntan lotion, or both, because there's no way you could detect them. But it was so cold in Detroit. You need moisture or sweat to make the shaving cream or suntan lotion work, so it was probably too cold to use shaving cream or suntan lotion."

The coach also voice a theory that crossed my mind today on why La Russa wasn't more vigorous in going after Rogers:

"I bet Tony La Russa's pitchers are mad at him for saying anything, because a lot of guys do it, and I'd be surprise if there's a whole staff of guys who don't do it. In fact, I'd say a majority of guys use one of the three -- shaving cream, suntan lotion or pine tar. They can't like him ratting out the other team when everyone does it. Maybe he had to say something because it's the World Series, it's on TV and he probably has to answer to his owner.

"But you'll notice he didn't continue to talk about it, and he instructed his guys not to talk about it. They probably have no interest in catching Rogers because if they do then the umpire is looking at everyone.''

It seems like a quote from The Sting is appropriate.

Floyd: Doyle, I KNOW I gave him four THREES. He had to make a SWITCH. We can't let him get away with that.

Doyle Lonnegan: What was I supposed to do - call him for cheating better than me, in front of the others?



Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 PM | World Series | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Back in the Game
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Lou Piniella hired Alan Trammell to coach the Cubs.

In a related note, Trammell autographed a ball for Jim Storer before game 2 of the World Series. Jim's impression of Trammell was that he's a very quiet and shy man but very nice. Good luck to Alan in his new job!

trammellautograph.jpg

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:33 PM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Regression to the Mean
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Double Play Depth believes that Kenny Rogers post season is simply the law of averages at work:

My theory on Kenny Rogers goes like this:

Law of Averages.

Sure, he was Awful before, and he's been Great this year, but the average of Awful and Great is Mediocre, which is exactly what Kenny Rogers has been over the course of his career. When you add up his career postseason numbers, they look like this:

             IP    H   ER  BB   SO   W   L  ERA
New Kenny   23.0    9   0   7   19   3   0  0.00
Old Kenny   21.1   37  20  16   15   0   3  8.44
All Kenny   44.1   46  20  23   34   3   3  4.06

The law of averages is not like the law of gravity, however. The law of averages is just a good idea.

The thing that is suspicious to me is his strikeout numbers. Kenny hasn't posted a decent strikeout rate since 1999. Over the last seven seasons, his strikeout rate is 4.9 per 9 innings. This post season, it's 7.4 per 9. Plausible? Sure, especially since he did the same thing earlier this year.

People should be suspicious of a substance on a pitcher's hand. But we should be open to other explanations as well.

Update: Since two people mentioned this, I'm not implying steroid use in the last sentence. I'm implying non-cheating explanations, such as luck!

Strikeouts have more to do with fooling batters than overpowering them. A big increase in strikeouts might mean the ball is moving more for Rogers, and a substance on the ball might do that. That's why I find the strikeouts suspicious. But as I point out, he's had a good three game run of strikeouts this season, so while it's unusual, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:26 PM | Post Season | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
The Bill Comes Due
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Michael Sweeney sends this article that focuses on the bill of Rogers' cap.

To explain: Rogers prefers to wear a batting practice cap, instead of the standard-issue New Era 5950 game cap that all the other players wear. He's been pitching with the BP cap all season, as you can tell from the slightly puffier, more rounded brim and more synthetic-looking fabric (5950s are made of wool, while BP caps are polyester). Detroit's BP cap has a colored sandwich brim -- white at home, orange on the road -- which would be a no-no for regular game action, so Rogers apparently fills in the colored edge with a dark marker, which means he doesn't match his teammates during pregame workouts.

But here's the key: The BP cap has a black underbill, instead of the Tigers' usual light gray. Now ask yourself, if you wanted to take a foreign substance out to the mound with you, wouldn't it be easier to hide it against a black background than a gray one? Far be it from Uni Watch to accuse the Gambler of taking cards from the bottom of the deck, but you have to admit it's an interesting coincidence at the very least. Uni Watch's suggestion: Make Rogers wear a 5950 like everyone else, and then let's see who holds 'em and who folds 'em.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:49 PM | World Series | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Lyons Interview
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Maury Brown publishes an interview with Steve Lyons about his firing from Fox.

Bizball: Do you think it's a situation where they were looking for an excuse?

Lyons: You know, it's certainly possible, but I would hate to make that assumption only because I think that if I did, I'd be no better than what they did. I can only take at face value that they fired me for the press releases they put out - as far as I know - I didn't really see it. That I was fired for having made a racially insensitive comment. They didn't say anything about anything else I did. They didn't say anything about any past problems that they had with me. So, I can only take that at face value. If I said, "Hey, maybe they were looking for something," then that means I'm inferring something that they didn't say, exactly the same way that they did to me, and the reason I got fired.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:43 PM | Interviews | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hand it to Him
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ESPN's front page currently is displaying side-by-side pictures of Rogers' left hand from the ALCS and the World Series. The same smudge is in both pictures.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:51 PM | Pitchers | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Defining the Red Sox
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Duffy's Cliff is a new site dedicated to providing a lexicon of Red Sox history. It's in preview mode right now, but feel free to join and add to the language! I'm excited about the site because one of the people behind it is Edward Cossette, the ex-author of one of my favorite blogs, Bambino's Curse.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:03 PM | History | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cold Weather Ball
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Chris Constancio examines the effect of cold weather on walks, strikeouts and hits at The Hardball Times. I'd like to suggest one explanation for why hits go down. In cold weather, the bat meeting the ball stings your hands. The natural reaction is the same one you get when you touch a hot stove; you pull away from the sting. My guess is, players don't follow through as well when making contact on a cold day.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Remembering Nelson
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The Soxaholix mourns the passing of Nelson de la Rosa.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 AM | Deaths | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Prasing Rogers
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Evan Grant in the Dallas morning news praises Kenny Rogers:

Kenny Rogers would have you believe all that even when the cold - really cold, if you were in Detroit on Sunday - hard facts say something else. Namely, they say that Kenny Rogers is one of baseball's elite left-handed pitchers.

Ever.

Rogers' eight shutout innings in Detroit's 3-1 win over St. Louis in Game 2 of the World Series on Sunday was further documentation. Rogers, who allowed only two hits (both singles) has now pitched 23 consecutive scoreless innings in October. It's four shy of the all-time record.

Add that to his other accomplishments. This is a guy who has thrown a perfect game, who has 207 career wins, appears headed for 250 and who is the best fielding pitcher of a generation.

That ought to speak for itself. But it didn't.

What separated Rogers from the upper tier of lefties was a history of postseason struggles. He failed as a starter for the Yankees in the 1996 World Series and failed as a reliever for the Mets in the 1999 World Series. And if you can't make it in New York, you can't make it anywhere.

Rogers could win all the games he wanted in Texas or Minnesota or some god-forsaken outpost such as Detroit, but his career would always be tinged with a "but." But, it would be written, he couldn't win the big game.

I don't agree. Rogers record is out of whack with his career ERA of 4.19. His .598 winning percentage indicates his teams averaged 5.67 runs per 9 in support of the pitcher. He's an okay pitcher who was blessed to spend his career on high scoring teams. He's not one of baseball's elite lefties.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | Pitchers | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Billy Beane, Insensitive Boss
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Via Red Reporter, a Mercury News reporter remembers just how badly Billy Beane treated Ken Macha. Beane took over Macha's office for an interview, and a few minutes later Macha came in:

I started asking, but a few minutes later Macha and Curt Young came back, with plates of food and just in their underwear, obviously looking to eat, change clothes and relax.

They stared at us, I stared at them, Billy just kept eating and talking.

Macha tenatively sat down behind his desk for a few seconds. Very uncomfortable. Shot another glance at Beane. Glared at me. I shrugged, said to Beane, "Umm, maybe we should do this somewhere else."

Beane looked up like this was the first he'd noticed Macha was there-or cared that he was there-dropped his plate, then just waved at Macha, pointing him out the door. Remember, this was Macha's own office. After winning for something like the 33rd time in 40 games.

"Ken, you can let us do this, right?" Beane said as he waved.

Beane turned back to me and never looked at Macha again as Macha and Young sighed, got up, and moved out.

That was the relationship. Right there. Beane is the man. Macha always knew it, even when he was in his own office.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Dirty Hand
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Kenny Rogers says his hand was dirty:

Rogers's version went like this: "It was a big clump of dirt, and I wiped it off. I didn't know it was there and they told me and I took it off, and it wasn't a big deal. It's dirt and resin and all that stuff put together. When it's moist, you're going to rub up the baseball and it was left on my hand when I rubbed them up."

Rogers denied the umpires said anything to him about the substance. He said, "I saw it and I went and wiped it off and then it was gone. I didn't think it was an issue."

The umps seemed to agree:

MLB umpiring supervisor Steve Palermo said, "There was absolutely no detection that Kenny Rogers put anything on the ball. This was not an inspection, this was an observation. The umpires were very proactive. They asked that Kenny just clean that dirt off so there wouldn't be any question as to him with any foreign substance or dirt or whatever it may have been on the ball."

The people who commented on this post seem to think otherwise. Over the years, umpires haven't exactly been on top of doctored baseballs. After all, it was Frank Robinson, not the umpires, who caught Brendan Donnelly with pine tar on his glove.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 22, 2006
Top of the Ninth
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The Tigers go quietly in the 8th inning. Todd Jones comes on to try to preserve the win.

Update: Spiezio hits it hard but right at Ordonez. Pujols comes to the plate with one out and no one on.

Update: Pujols grounds out to Inge at third, despite a bobble. It's up to Rolen.

Update: Rolen falls behind 0-2, but hits the next pitch the opposite way for a single. That puts the game into Encarnacion's hands. Rolen moves up on the first pitch to second.

Update: Oops! Encarnacion bounces back to the box, but Jones lets the ball bounce off him for an error. Edmonds flairs a double down the leftfield line on the first pitch to end the shutout and put runners on 2nd and 3rd with two out. Wilson faces Jones, and Jones hits him with the first pitch. That brings up Molina.

Update: Jones induces the grounder to short to end the game, and the Tigers earn a split with St. Louis. No sweep this year, as they'll be playing a game 5. Let's see if Fox asks Rogers what was on his hand in the first inning. He cleaned up after that and now owns a 23 consecutive scoreless inning streak. He's more than halved his post-season ERA for his career with these three performances.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | World Series | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
Second Hit
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Yadier Molina picks up the second hit of the game for the Cardinals leading off the top of the 8th. He singles to bring Miles to the plate, who grounds into a force out. Top of the order is up.

Update: Eckstein grounds into a double play. Rogers' scoreless streak goes to 23 innings, and he's faced just four batters over the minimum. The Cardinals will send the 2-3-4 hitters to the plate in the ninth, including Pujols and Rolen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Guillen Singles
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Carlos Guillen singles leading off the seventh. That leaves him a home run short of the cycle, but it's unlikely he'll come to bat again.

Why is the best hitter in the lineup batting so low?

Update: Ivan Rodriguez grounds into a double play. It hasn't been a great post-season for the vowel-Rods.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:49 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rogers Through Seven
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Kenny Rogers just finished his 22nd scoreless inning in this post season. He's walked three tonight, but allowed just one hit. His hand was cleaned in the second inning, so whatever was there early isn't obviously there now. He's still mowing the Cardinals down. He's at 93 pitches, so we'll likely see one more inning of work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Through Six
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Tony La Russa pulls Weaver after five, lucky that the score is just 3-0. Weaver allowed 11 batters to reach by a hit, walk or hit by pitch. The bullpen hits a batter in the sixth, but that's it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Half a Cycle
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Carlos Guillen picks up a triple with one out in the bottom of the fifth to put another runner in scoring position for Detroit. Guillen also has a double and a walk tonight.

Update: Ivan Rodriguez strikes out swinging. Once again, the Tigers are not able to put the bat on the ball in a situation that requires it.

Update: After seven failures, Sean Casey gets a hit with a runner in scoring position. He lines a single into right to score Guillen and extend the Tigers' lead to 3-0.

Update: That's all the Tigers get as Inge strikes out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No Runs Through Five
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Kenny Rogers finishes his 20th scoreless inning of the post season. Someone asked for the record. Unfortunately, the record book breaks it down by series, but in the 1905 World Series, Christy Mathewson pitched three straight shutouts, good for 27 consecutive scoreless innings. My guess is, that's the record.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
On in the Fourth
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Sean Casey leans his knee into a pitch, and Inge lines one up the middle and the Tigers have men on first and second with no one out in the bottom of the fourth.

Update: Santiago sacrifices, but Pujols bobbles the ball as Molina points toward third. He's charged with an error and the bases are loaded. Always get the sure out.

Granderson strikes out swinging in a situation where a batter needs to put the ball in play.

Update: Polanco grounds out to shortstop. Weaver's given the Tigers plenty of opportunities, but the Tigers are 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position.

Update: Monroe pops out to short. That brings up ALCS MVP Polanco.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 PM | World Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Performance Artist
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Polanco's hood makes him look like he's auditioning for Blue Man Group. Placido is the second strikeout in the third. Ordonez singles to keep the inning going, the fifth two-out hit of the game for the Tigers. Weaver's given up two out hits in each of the first three innings.

Update: Weaver walks Guillen. He'll face I-Rod with runners at first and second.

Update: Rodriguez grounds out to third to end the inning. Weaver's allowed six hits to Rogers' one, but with most of the hits coming with two outs, it's tough to put together a sequence to score a lot of runs. The Tigers still lead 2-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Second Inning Singles
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Inge and Santiago single with one out in the bottom of the second to bring up Granderson with men on first and second.

Update: Curtis hits into a double play. Weaver continues to get outs with runners in scoring position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Know When to Fold 'Em
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Kenny Rogers washed his hand between the first and second inning. We'll see if it makes a difference.

Update: Rogers strikes out Edmonds to start the second.

Update: Kenny retires the side in order. Molina gave the ball a ride, but Monroe tracked it down in deep left. The score is still 2-0 Tigers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Monroe Mashes
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Craig Monroe sends the ball into the leftfield stands, repeating his performance from last night. He even hit it on the first pitch. Once again, the Tigers take the early 1-0 lead.

Update: Ordonez hits Weaver well, and this time he bloops a two-out single into shallow left. Guillen comes up to try to extend the inning.

Update: Guillen delivers a double to the wall in left-center, and Ordonez comes around to score the second run of the inning and the game.

Update: That's all the Tigers get. But they're off to a good start against Weaver.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Ed Whitson Game
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David Eckstein grounds out to start the game. Scott Spiezio bats second. He's had success against Rogers in his career.

Update: Rogers wins this confrontation as Spiezio strikes out looking.

Update: Rogers pitches around Pujols, issuing a walk. The broadcast just showed a discoloration on Rogers' left hand that looks like pine tar.

Update: Inge dives on a grounder by Rolen and can't come up with the ball. Encarnacion is up with men on 1st and 2nd.

Update: Encarnacion bounces back to the box for the third out. Rogers' scoreless inning streak in the post season goes to 16.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Game Two Coming Up
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Jim Storer sends a picture of a big cat to get you in the mood for game 2.

TigerStatue.jpg

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:48 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Deal or No Deal?
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It looks like the owners and players reached a new labor agreement.

The deal, struck during bargaining in New York on Friday night and Saturday, is subject to the sides putting the deal in writing, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the agreement had not been finalized.

That's great news, as we don't need to worry about a work stoppage. By getting the deal done now, GMs will know if they continue to get compensation for free agents lost. We'll also see if the luxury tax survived.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:38 PM | Union | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Test Post
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This is a test.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:54 PM | Blogs | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The post-season redemption of Jeff Weaver and Kenny Rogers face off at Comerica park. Weaver started his career in the motor city and pitched okay at Comerica. He kept his walks down and the ball in the park. The team he played for just wasn't very good. He was, however, better on the road during that time.

Weaver's only allowed four runs in 16 2/3 innings so far this post season. His strength thus far is keeping the ball in the park, and Carlos Beltran hit the only home run off Jeff. But he has walked more than he's struck out, putting seven on via the free pass. But Weaver's allowed just one hit with men in scoring position during the post season. We'll see how long his luck lasts.

Post-season opponents have yet to score on Kenny Rogers, and his pitching stats match that expectation. He's struck out 14 in 15 innings while walking just four. The Yankees and Athletics combined for just seven hits off Kenny. He's pitching much better than he did during the regular season when he averaged about 4.5 K per 9 and a walk every three innings.

The handedness of the pitchers favor the Tigers tonight. The Cardinals power drops greatly against left-handed pitching, while the Tigers hit righties a little better than lefties. One batter-pitcher matchup to watch is Ordonez vs. Weaver. Magglio is 10 for 33 vs. Weaver with two home runs. Another is Spiezio vs. Rogers. Scott is 15 for 38 against The Gambler, so I won't be surprised to see Spiezio in the lineup. Emonds vs. Rogers is interesting, also. Jim's managed just 10 hits in 43 at bats vs. Kenny, but five went for extra bases.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Sportin' Life
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Porgy and Bess opened last night in Detroit, across the street from Comerica park. Fortunately, fans were able to use technology to keep up with the game:

It was a night where everyone had a Plan A (call good friend), a Plan B (call close relative if good friend fails to answer phone) and a nuclear option (run out to the street and grab a total stranger! Run to Cheli's and beg the bouncer for an update!) for getting the game score. Some staffers opened the windows of the sixth-floor conference room and drank glasses of imported red wine while watching the game.

But far from being empty, the opera house drew a large, enthusiastic crowd.

"I'm proud of you all for being here tonight," quipped the opera general director David DiChiera from the stage before the performance started.

Instead of resisting the pull of the game, the Opera House aided and abetted, posting the score on the electronic crawl screen ordinarily used to display opera lyrics at intermission, and sending staffers to walk the donor's lounge with bright yellow, hand-written signs that displayed the score.

Cell phones were crucial links to the sporting world. Most everyone had someone on the outside who had agreed to supply frequent updates by phone or text message, from the bartenders stuck too far inside the Opera House to even see the ballpark, to John Madison, the principal viola player who wore a Detroit Tigers batting helmet while performing Saturday, and had a friend send text updates by cell phone in the orchestra pit during the show.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Helping Reyes
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The Birdwatch notes Comerica Park's huge outfield helped Reyes last night:

The ton of fly ball outs didn't hurt him in the cavernous Comerica Park, especially with probably the Cards' best defensive outfield out there. Indeed, lboros noted in his Series preview over at VEB that a Tigers weakness at home was the hugeness of the outfield neutralizing their home run power. It definitely did, and even more appropriately, Pudge Rodriguez hit a ball a mile to the warning track in left late in the game, and So Taguchi hauled it in without blinking.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:08 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Jones on Weaver
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Todd Jones criticized Jeff Weaver on Weaver's return to Detroit:

Jones told The Detroit News for yesterday's editions that Weaver "was a good pitcher who never really panned out here. Maybe he found a home in St. Louis, but there's no love lost here that he's gone." He also said, "I am not a big advocate of his, and I wasn't a big advocate of his when he was here."

Weaver, who starts tonight's Game 2 of the World Series against the Tigers, pitched with Detroit for 3 1/2 seasons until he was traded to the New York Yankees in 2002. He had a reputation when he was younger for not taking pitching seriously.

Weaver did not strike back:

When asked about the comments yesterday, Weaver said he hadn't read the paper and he suggested that maybe the comments "got twisted."

"Todd Jones is one of the nicest guys I've ever run across," Weaver said. "If he's got unkind words for me I don't know what they're stemming from. And it's the World Series, maybe he's just trying to get a little jab in here or there. ... I've got nothing but good things to say about him."

Is Jones playing mind games? Sometimes, those backfire.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Macha Speaks
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Ken Macha tells Carl Steward that the problem leading to the manager's dismissal was with the front office, not with the players:

What Macha did do was grant an interview to MediaNews to clarify a few things.

First was the notion that his firing was a direct result of published statements from his former players.

"What I want to do is take the high road," he said. "Let's focus on the eight years that I was there, the four years I was the manager, and what we did, all the success and the rookies of the year and the players we developed and all the other stuff. Let's not just look at the last day. Don't judge me by that. Don't do that. I know why I was fired and Billy knows why I was fired.

"I wasn't fired because these players were upset. I know that. Billy Beane knows that. And I'm OK with that decision."

So why was he really fired?

"I can't come out and say that, because Billy didn't come out and say it," he said. "I think you can figure it out, though."

What's clear is that Macha's relationship with the front office, and not so much with the players, had become untenable.

Macha makes the case that he communicated just fine:

In September, following an incident at home plate when Macha had to restrain outfielder Milton Bradley from going after an umpire, Bradley made a voluntary trip into the manager's office.

"He came in and sat down, and while he had a hard time saying it, he told me, 'Thanks for stopping me from hitting the umpire or running into him," Macha recalled. "I said, 'Milton, that's no problem. I did what I thought was best for the team, and as I've told you all along, 'I've got your back.'"

Macha said the manner in which he managed Payton, Bradley and Frank Thomas, who had myriad issues as a member of the Chicago White Sox, speaks closer to his true abilities as a communicator.

"Lost in this whole cloud is that I had these three supposedly problem players this year," he said. "I had those three guys, they were probably my three most productive guys. And I handled 'em. That gets lost in the fog here."

As I've noted before, the Athletics exceeded their win prediction, run prediction, and allowed fewer runs than expected under Macha. He must have done something right.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 AM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Myth Busters
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Joel Sherman tallies the myths broken in the current post season:

Weaver and Rogers were two of the worst pitchers in postseason history. Now look at them. It's as if Ed Whitson showed up as the ghost of Yankees past and started putting up ghost eggs; Rogers has 15 shutout innings this postseason, Weaver has a 2.16 ERA in three starts.

So the notion that Weaver and Rogers can't handle the postseason is the No. 1 myth busted this October.

Now that we believe both can pitch in October, we'll probably get a slugfest tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:40 AM | Post Season | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 21, 2006
Bottom of the Ninth
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The Cardinals don't score in the top of the ninth. The Tigers have three outs to score six runs. Monroe leads off the ninth for Detroit.

Update: Reyes starts the ninth.

Update: Craig Monroe hits the first pitch deep into the left field stands to chase Reyes from the game and close the gap to 7-2.

Update: Looper enters the game and induces Polanco to ground out to second.

Update: Ordonez strikes out swinging for the second out. The game rests in Carlos Guillen's hands.

Update: Or Scott Rolen's hands as he bobbles the ball for an error and Guillen is on first base for Ivan Rodriguez.

Update: Rodriguez flies out to center to end the game and the Cardinals take a 1-0 series lead by a score of 7-2. Anthony Reyes pitches an unexpectedly great game, retiring the side in order in six of the eight innings he pitched. This ends both the National League 8 game losing streak in the World Series and Tony La Russa's 8 game losing streak in the series as well.

What's even better for St. Louis was the hitting of the middle of the order. Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen combined to collect five hits in eleven at bats with five runs scored and four RBI. Three of the five hits went for extra bases.

As noted in the preview, the Tigers offense is similar to the Mets. The Cardinals did a great job of stopping New York, and tonight they did a fine job of stopping Detroit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:44 PM | World Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Reyes Through Eight
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Anthony Reyes just finished up the eighth inning, his sixth in which he retired the side in order. He's allowed two hits.

In game 1 between these two teams in 1968, Bob Gibson shutout the Tigers on five hits and 17 strikeouts. Reyes only allowed three hits so far and struck out four. He's thrown just 91 pitches, so maybe La Russa will allow him to match Gibson's complete game.

Update: Jim Storer reports Tiger fans are leaving early.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Seventeen in a Row
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Reyes retires seventeen in a row before Carlos Guillen picks up his second hit of the game, a one out single in the bottom of the seventh.

Update: I-Rod sends Taguchi back to the wall where he makes a catch a few feet short of a home run.

Update: Casey pops out to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Leadoff Walk
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Verlander pitches carefully to Pujols and walks him to lead off the sixth. He then makes a wild pick off throw that puts Albert at third with no one out for Edmonds. As the broadcasters pointed out, Albert is not stealing with a bad hamstring, so why throw over there?

Update: Edmonds gets the call on a check swing, then singles to make extend the lead to 5-1. Rolen follows with a double down the line that bounces into the stands to put runners at second and third with no outs. That's it for Verlander.

The heart of the Cardinals order is now four for eight with two homers, a double, three runs and four RBI. The walking wounded are having a very good night.

Update: Jason Grilli enters the game in relief.

Update: Inge makes two errors on the same play. Encarnacion grounds to Brandon, who bobbles the ball then throws wide home. Rolen runs around third on the overthrow and Inge gets in his way. Rolen is rewarded home on interference, and the Cardinals lead 7-1.

Update: That's all they get. But the Cardinals own a commanding 7-1 lead in the middle of the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 PM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Batters to Outs
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Anthony Reyes is through four and hasn't allowed a hit since the first inning. He's now retired 10 batters in a row. He's only thrown 47 pitches through the first four innings, 33 for strikes. The broadcast mentioned that he was tipping his pitches to the Mets. If that's true, he appears to have solved that tonight.

Update: Reyes pitches another 1-2-3 inning in the fifth, striking out two to bring his total Ks to four. He's already done his job. Any more outs he gets this game are gravy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Seven Through Four
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Verlander in two dimensions is pitching very well. Through four innings he's struck out seven and walked just one. It's the third dimension that's gotten him into trouble. Two home runs account for three of the four runs scored against him so far. That's why he's losing 4-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yadier Flare
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Yadier Molina picks up another hit as he flares one into rightfield leading off the third.

Update: Taguchi hits one in front of the plate down the third base line. I-Rod pounces on it rather than letting roll foul and it's effectively a sacrifice for So.

Update: After an Eckstein strikeout, Duncan pulls a ball just inside the rightfield line to score Molina and give the Tigers a 2-1 lead. Pujols isn't walked with first open, and Albert goes the opposite way for a home run and a 4-1 Cardinals lead.

That's what you get for starting Verlander instead of Bonderman.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 PM | World Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Scott Socks
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Scott Rolen takes a 1-0 pitch into the left field seats to tie the game at one. No one was going to catch that. In the last few games, it appears Scott is getting his power stroke back.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
First Hit
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Craig Monroe doubles to with one out for the first hit and first threat in the game.

Update: Ordonez walks with two out to bring up the best hitter on the Tigers, Carlos Guillen.

Update: Guillen singles into right, scoring Monroe. Encarnacion bobbles the ball and Guillen winds up at second as the Tigers take a 1-0 lead.

Update: Ivan Rodriguez pops out to second to end the inning. But the Tigers draw first blood.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
World Series Underway
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David Eckstein works the count full then grounds out to shortstop. Game one is underway.

Update: Duncan does the same from the left side. He works the count full and grounds out to the second baseman.

Update: Verlander drops a nasty curve ball on a 2-2 count to Albert Pujols to get Albert swinging. Three up and three down in the top of the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:08 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Take Him to Detroit
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Baseball Musings roving reporter Jim Storer sends a couple of pictures from Detroit. Things look grim for the Cardinals:

deathforcardinals.jpg

And there is special transportation:

tigercruiser.jpg


Update: Here's the view from inside the park:

scoreboardpregame.jpg

Update: Here's a shot of the pre-game. The nice thing about the upper deck is you get a great view of these ceremonies.

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Posted by StatsGuru at 07:22 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Al Gionfriddo's Catch
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Endy Chavez's catch reminds Bob Shvodian of another famous post-season grab. He writes:

I stood up all night (Sat) at Yankee Stadium bleachers as a 16 yr old to see game 6 of the 1947 WS and was right at the bullpen area where little Al Gionfriddo made his great catch. R. B. Cramer, in his Joe DiMag book, describes Gionfriddo as doing the "Dardennella" dance circling around and blindly sticking his glove at the fence to pluck the ball out of the air. That comes from the phoney recreation film made the next day. Old Dodger Bobby Bragan talks about being just inside the bullpen fence, yet I have a Gionfriddo autographed (located him at a golf course in Solvang, CA) picture of Gionfriddo at the fence and Bragan is nowhere in sight. For me, Gionfriddo's catch was much more difficult than Mays' catch, as Willie had the reputation (as per writer Dick Young) of making most plays look more difficult. A WashDC writer says Gionfriddo was out of position, yet I have Red Barber's tape of the catch and Barber states: "Outfield around to left and deep" which is exactly how one played DiMag, if you knew what you were doing. Poor Gionfriddo never played another big league game and didn't get in enough time to qualify for the ballplayer's pension.
Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
On Being a Boston Fan
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Nina Bennett is a freelance writer and Red Sox fan. She sent along this essay titled, "How to Be a Red Sox Fan." Enjoy.

Being a Red Sox fan entails a life of heartache, hope, and passion. You must have faith through continual failure, endure cyclic disappointment, and have the courage to believe that a group of mere men can come together to achieve acts of heroism.

For those born and raised in New England, the Red Sox are passed on like family heirlooms generation after generation. They are a thread that runs through family history and tradition. As a rite of passage father proudly takes son to Fenway Park for the first time. Grandpa sits on the porch talking with the grandchildren about the Sox of yesteryear. Brothers play baseball in the streets of Boston, pretending to be their favorite player. But even a transplanted Red Sox fan, such as myself, that lives elsewhere and has discovered the team later in life shares the same love for the team that is seen in lifestyle, behavior, and beliefs.

From the first World Series win of 1903, the dream season of '67, the devastation of '86, and the angst of the '99 postseason when the team rallied to defeat the Indians only to be slaughtered by the Yankees in the ALCS, a Sox fan's mind is steeped in history. The dates of losses, victories, and monumental moments are lodged in your mind. You know that there was never a man who did more for the Red Sox, as a player, coach, and fan than Johnny Pesky. You know the day Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski retired. You are an expert on Babe Ruth's infamous 'curse' and the New England rhetoric to reverse it. And of course, when the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004, a full 86 years after their last title, you had a single, teary-eyed thought that coincided with the collective conscious of all Sox fans: now I can die happy.

Read More ?


Posted by StatsGuru at 05:15 PM | Fans | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Position Comparison, Catchers
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Both these teams do a great job of stopping the running game. Cardinals opponents stole at a 66% clip, Tigers opponents were just successful 58% of the time. Offensively, there is no comparison. Ivan Rodriguez's offense matches his catching skills, while Molina will always be known as a great handler of pitchers. Defensively, both shine, but offensively, the Tigers win hands down.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:01 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Position Comparison, Right Field
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This is an easy pick, based on either career or season stats. Magglio Ordonez does everything better offensively than Juan Encarnacion. Juan started his career in Detroit, and players like him were the reason the Tigers were lousy for so long. He didn't get on base and and his power was low. Ordonez, does both well. It's easy to put this one well into the Tigers column.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:43 PM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Position Comparisons, Centerfield
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In centerfield, Curtis Granderson faces off against Jim Edmonds. Curtis represents one of the youngest starters on either team at age 25. Jim is eleven years his senior. Curtis just hit his prime and Edmonds is on his way down. Jim is playing on a bad foot, but he's still getting on base, but only two of his nine hits went for extra bases. Granderson, like Monroe, is doing a better job of getting on base in the post season, and he's also hitting for power. Six of his ten hits resulted in extra bases.

So once again, while career statistics favor the Cardinal, injuries and post-season play evens out things. I'm giving a slight edge to the Cardinals on this one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:13 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Position Comparison, Leftfielders
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Craig Monroe is the prototypical Detroit hitter. He doesn't hit for a high average, he doesn't get on base much, but he collects doubles and homers. In the postseason so far, he's drawn three walks in thirty at bats, showing better patience than he did in the regular season.

La Russa platoons Spiezio and Preston Wilson in left. Wilson is the superior hitter vs. left-handers, and Spiezio bats better against righties. Scott posts a lower batting average from the left side, but his power goes way up. That platoon gets on base a lot more than Monroe, and with decent power. The better OBA in my mind throws this comparison to St. Louis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 AM | World Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Position Comparison, Shortstop
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This is a tough comparison, since we don't know how much Guillen will play the position. If Carlos Guillen is the Detroit shortstop, the Tigers take the position hands down over Eckstein. If Ramon Santiago gets to start, St. Louis owns the clear advantage. It looks like Santiago will get the starts at home, with Guillen moving to short as the designated hitter disappears. With Santiago scheduled to play more than half the Tigers games at short, I'm calling this position even.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Position Comparison, Third Base
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Scott Rolen vs. Brandon Inge should be no contest. Rolen is a great offensive and defensive third baseman. He gets on base, he hits for power, and he's among the best with the glove. Rolen is a middle of the order hitter, while Inge properly bats at the bottom of the Detroit lineup. At age 29, Inge did develop some power, smacking 27 home runs this season, but his low batting average caused him to post a less than impressive .463 slugging percentage. With the power came a drop in OBA, which pretty much negated the home runs.

The problem is, that Rolen isn't healthy. He's only managed one extra-base hit this post season, although his chance at a home run was Endy'd by Chavez. His struggles at the plate make this matchup more even than it should be. Still, advantage St. Louis here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 AM | World Cup | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Position Comparison, Second Base
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It's been fun watching Ronnie Belliard play second base during the post season. With a strong arm, he positions himself on the outfield grass to increase his range. (Cal Ripken played deeper than most shortstops for the same reason.) Offensively, he posted a poor season, below his already low career averages. He's a defensive second baseman.

Polanco's numbers in 2006 lagged his career averages as well. But healthy for the post season, he's hitting like the 2005 versions of the second baseman, earning the ALCS MVP award. The edge goes to Detroit, simply due to Polanco being a better overall hitter in his career. Polanco getting on base at the order in the ALCS helped extend the Tigers offense, although he neither scored nor drove in many runs himself.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Position Comparison, First Base
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It's fairly easy to give the Cardinals the advantage at this position, since Albert Pujols is the best hitter of his generation. With Sean Casey healthy again, the advantage is even greater, since Casey hits like a shortstop. However, it looks like Leyland plans on putting Casey at designated hitter during the games in Detroit, which puts Guillen at first. Guillen matches up much better with Pujols, since he's a shortstop that hits like a first baseman. Still, even with a bad hamstring, it's tough not to go with Albert at this position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
World Series Preview
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The Cardinals and Tigers get underway tonight, and it sure looks like the Tigers own an advantage. (In all the tables, ranks are the team's rank in its own league.)

2006 (League Ranks)CardinalsTigers
Runs per Game 4.85 (6th)5.07 (5th)
ERA 4.54 (9th) 3.84 (1st)

The offenses are pretty even when you consider the Cardinals bat a pitcher most of the season. Detroit's pitching staff stands head and shoulders above the Cardinals, however. I do have one caveat when it comes to the pitching however, but let's take a closer look at the offense first.

2006 (League Ranks)CardinalsTigers
Batting Average .269 (4th) .274 (9th)
OBA .337 (5th) .329 (12th)
Slugging Percentage .431 (8th) .449 (5th)

The Cardinals are better at getting on base, the Tigers are better at hitting for power. Please note that this is very close to how the Cardinals and Mets offense stacked up. That's the caveat. The Cardinals pitchers were able to contain New York's hitters, allowing just 27 runs in four games.

But the Cardinals offense wasn't great. The scored just 28 runs in the NLCS against a depleted Mets pitching staff. With Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen all injured, the big three Cardinals just aren't that fearsome.

Now for the pitching:

2006 (League Ranks)CardinalsTigers
Batting Average Allowed .268 (9th).257 (2nd)
OBA Allowed .337 (7th) .321 (3rd)
Slugging Percentage Allowed .443 (13th) .405 (2nd)

Detroit posted the best ERA in the majors, not just the AL. As you can see they earned that rank by keeping batters off base and limiting their power. The low batting average allowed indicates a solid defense, and in fact the Tigers were the only AL team to turn more than 70% of fieldable balls in play into outs.

Extra-base hits represent the Cardinals biggest weakness as a staff, which plays into the Tigers biggest strength as hitters. This was true for the Mets series, and while New York hit seven home runs in that series, four came with the bases empty.

As discussed last night, the seven game series with rain outs forced the Cardinals to start the World Series with their #4 starter. Unless La Russa is willing to bring back his three other starters on short rest, the Tigers will see Reyes twice and Suppan once, which just increases the pitching advantage for Detroit.

And none of that takes into account the superior Detroit bullpen. They allowed fewer home runs and took advantage of the great Tigers defense, allowing many fewer hits. The Cardinals were a bit better at getting the strikeout, however,

So what I see is a St. Louis team that shut down a very good Mets offense facing a very similar one in Detroit. However, the Cardinals were not really able to take advantage of a depleted Mets staff due to injuries to the best hitters on St. Louis. The Detroit staff is healthy, rested and very good. The Tigers may very well be held to four runs a game, but that's going to be enough to win. It looks to me that the Tigers have about a 75% chance of winning this series. However, a low scoring series allows more of a chance for random events to affect the outcome. All the home runs Oliver Perez allowed in game four of the NLCS didn't matter, because the Mets stacked up a huge lead. But Yadier Molina's home run in game seven and Carlos Beltran's home run in game one were the difference in those low scoring games.

Since the indication to me is this will be a low scoring series, I'm pulling the odds down to 60% in favor of the Tigers. There's just too many things that can go wrong when teams don't put many runs on the board.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | World Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 20, 2006
A Pair of Rookies
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The Cardinals match the Tigers, sending rookie Anthony Reyes to the mound for game one. It will be the first time two rookies start game one of the World Series.

The playoff schedule forced the Cardinals to put their weakest rotation into the series. Suppan should get only one start in game four, and Carpenter won't be seen until game 3. Maybe St. Louis will get lucky again and a rainout will help the rotation. There is some rain in the forecast for tomorrow night; a postponement would make the rotation Weaver, Carpenter, Suppan, Reyes. But the way it stands right now, it looks like Reyes will get two starts, and that lowers the odds of the Cardinals winning in my view.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 PM | World Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tigers to Rotate
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The Detroit Tigers announced their rotation today:

Rookie right-hander Justin Verlander will start for the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of the World Series on Saturday.

Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman will follow in the rotation against St. Louis.

I'm extremely surprised Bonderman is pitching game four. So far in the post season, Bonderman's pitched better than Verlander and Robertson. In terms of strikeouts, walks and home runs during the regular season, Bonderman is better than Nate and Justin. For some reason, I would want to give Jeremy the chance to pitch two games in this series.

Getting two starts each for Rogers and Robertson is fine. St. Louis is weaker against left-handed pitching. I probably would have gone Bonderman, Rogers, Robertson, Verlander, although Bonderman was better on the road this year. Maybe Leyland is trying to keep him from pitching at home this series?

Rogers in game two and six is perfect, since he's much better at Comerica than on the road.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:57 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Giant Candidates
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Andrew Baggarly looks at the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates for Giants manager. He also mentions this:

But general manager Brian Sabean is looking beyond the resumes. He wants a manager who has strong opinions and knows how to run a game. He also wants a baseball mind with whom he can collaborate over a glass of wine.

I wonder if this was something he did with Baker and Alou? Take a drive up to the Russian River valley, taste the newest offerings and talk some baseball. Sounds like a perfect weekend to me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Labor Peace?
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FishStripes rounds up the latest news on the CBA. It looks very good for a deal with no acrimony, although it strikes me that negotiations will go down to the last minute, because that's when you're most likely to get the best deal from the other side. If indeed, the contract is signed earlier than that, then the owners and players must really like the way things are working right now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 AM | Union | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Motion Breakdown
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Via the Detroit Tigers Weblog, Jeff Albert presents an excellent video breakdown of Verlander and Zumaya's deliveries. Both throw 100 MPH, but Verlander is more efficient, but Zumaya creates more elastic energy with his arm motion. Albert posits that these observations make Verlander more suited for a starting and Zumaya more suited for relief.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Nostalgia Series
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Jay remembers the 1968 World Series:

When the World Series arrived in 1968, she brought a small black and white TV into the classroom and let us watch the game. I remember when the National Anthem came on, she said something like, "Well, what are you waiting for, stand up!"

Mrs. Boggs, I'll be thinking of you as these two teams play the rematch.

That series marks one of the great divides in baseball.

  1. 1893: The mound is set at it's current distance.
  2. 1901: NL and AL take final form as two stable major leagues.
  3. 1920: Death of Ray Chapman ushers in clean ball era, along with Ruth's home runs.
  4. 1969: Division play, lower mound.

It's also a personal dividing line for me. The 1968 World Series was the last one I didn't watch. I would be consumed by baseball the following season, but the only thing I remember about that World Series is the headline on the back page of the New York Daily News my dad brought home, "Tigers Win." It was the last series played between two teams who simply finished with the best record in each league. It was the last series played with a high mound. And it was spectacular, with the Cardinals going up 3 games to 1, and the Tigers roaring back to take the series. I hope this year's will be as good.

There will be two connections to that series as well. Tim McCarver picked up two triples and a homer as he had an outstanding series with the bat, and Ed Spiezio, Scott's father played for the Cardinals in the series. I'm sure we'll hear a lot about both. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | World Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Second Guessing
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Matt Cerrone at MetsBlog.com entertains second guessing by Mets fans on last night's game:

"How do Cliff Floyd and Carlos Beltran not swing the bat in those situations. Take the bat off your shoulder, and take a cut."...

...wainwright has a zito-like curve ball, which clearly is tough to hit...i mean, i know we don't want to believe it, as fans, but the kid was just better than floyd and beltran in that spot, simply put...there is no getting around it...

...yes, i want to think, 'hey, just swing the stick,' but the hitter also must resist from swinging at a bad pitch, and we need to understand that that curve ball initially looks like a high fastball, because the rotation is so damn tight...in both cases, with two strikes, floyd and beltran dipped their back shoulder, twitching as though the ball was going to be high and in, and once that happens the hitter is rendered useless - he has no choice but to wait and see where the ball lands...it just so happens the ball eventually spun down through the strike zone...

...i can't blame them, the best hitters in the league have been dealing with this forever...it happens...the game was not lost in these specific two at-bats, i'm sorry to say...

It was an interesting curve of the season for Beltran. He started the year booed, A-Rod like, for not living up to his contract. He then puts up MVP numbers and leads the Mets to the post season. He ends the year, however, watching the last pitch of the season go by with the bases loaded, again looking like Alex Rodriguez in his worst moments this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
October 19, 2006
The Birds and the Beasts
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It will be the Cardinals and the Tigers in the World Series. This turned out to be a game with mostly unexpected heroes. Jeff Suppan pitches his second great game seven, having out-pitched Clemens two years ago. Endy Chavez made one of the great catches in playoff history, one we'll be seeing along with Mays and Swoboda. Oliver Perez gives the Mets a great start, but Yadier Molina makes it all for naught with a ninth inning, two-run homer. Even in the bottom of the ninth, but two worst hitters on the Mets came through, but the big bats didn't.

It was a very even series, in doubt until the last pitch. Congratulation to the Cardinals on a great win, and on to the World Series!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:45 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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Wainwright is on to try to close out the series. Valentin bats.

Update: Valentin dumps one into shallow center for a lead off single. I'm amazed Chavez is hitting. I'd rather see Franco or a limping Floyd.

Update: Chavez lines a single the opposite way to right. Wainwright was given the gift of the bottom of the order and allows two singles. It looks like Floyd will pinch hit.

Update: Floyd is swinging for the fences as he swings and misses at the first pitch.

Update: Wainwright catches Floyd looking at a beautiful breaking ball. One down and Reyes up.

Update: Reyes hits a 1-2 pitch hard, but it hangs up for Jim Edmonds. Paul Lo Duca comes up, and he'll try to emulate Gary Carter.

Update: Wainwright walks Lo Duca, loading the bases and bringing up Beltran. The Mets are going to win or lose with their best. Hernandez runs for Lo Duca, so a ball in the gap likely wins the game.

Update: Wainwright gets ahead of Beltran 0-2. He throws another great breaking ball and Beltran is caught looking! The Cardinals win the pennant! What a fantastic game!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (27) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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Heilman stays in and strikes out Edmonds for his third K of the game. Heilman is an excellent choice for a reliever at this point. With experience as a starter, Randolph can leave him in a long time as long as he pitches well, and wait to see if the Mets get a lead before going to Wagner.

Update: Rolen singles, and Molina follows with a homer over the left field wall that Chavez doesn't have a chance to catch. The Cardinals take a 3-1 lead in the top of the ninth. Molina had just six homers in the regular season, and only one with men on.

Update: That's all the Cardinals get. We'll see if it's enough. The bottom of the order is coming up. That is a big plus for St. Louis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:15 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Suppan Gone
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Jeff Suppan walks Carlos Beltran to start the bottom of the eighth. Flores comes in to face Delgado.

Update: Flores gets Delgado to offer at two low, outside pitches. He throws his bat at the first to foul it off, but goes too far with the second and strikes out.

Update: Wright strikes out.

Update: Green grounds out to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Aaron's In
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Aaron Heilman starts the top of the eighth on the mound for the Mets. He gets Eckstein to ground to first. David's 1 for 3 tonight.

Spiezio bats for Wilson.

Update: Spiezio's roots are showing tonight.

Update: Hielman strikes out Spiezio looking. It's Pujols time.

Update: After the Mets fall behind Pujols, they intentionally walk him.

Update: Heilman gets out of the inning, still tied at one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:44 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Seventh
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Michael Tucker pinch hits for Bradford.

Update: Tucker works Suppan a bit but flies out to center for the first out.

Update: Reyes grounds out. He's not repeating his game of last night as he's now 0 for 4. Beltran and Wright remain the only Mets with a hit in this game.

Update: Lo Duca grounds out to end the inning. Suppan is through seven with 99 pitches thrown. He's issued walks, but allowed just two hits. That's what Maine did in 5 1/3 innings last night.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Down Under
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Chad Bradford starts the seventh for the Mets. A tremendous start for Oliver Perez as he strikes out four and walks just two through six innings of one run ball. He has Endy Chavez to thank for keeping the Cardinals at one run.

Update: It looks like the rain is starting to come down harder, too.

Update: Bradford retires the side in order. The Mets have nine outs to the Cardinals six at this point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Loaded Up
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The Mets are trying to keep the momentum going in the bottom of the sixth. They've loaded the bases on two walks an error with one out. Valentin is up.

Update: Suppan strikes out Valentin. Now Chavez gets a chance to follow up his defense with some offense.

Update: Chavez still stinks with the bat. He flies out to center on the first pitch. The teams go to the seventh still tied at 1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
One Out Walk
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With one out in the sixth inning, Oliver Perez issues his first unintenitonal walk of the game. Control was Perez's problem the last two years, and he's been in control the last two games.

Update: Endy Chavez makes a play for the ages. After a visit by Randolph, Rolen hits the first pitch from Perez high and hard. Chavez goes back to the fence, leaps, reaches over, and catches the home run ball for the second out. Edmonds, thinking it was gone, is all the way around second. Chavez throws to the cutoff man, who throws to first for the double play. The Cardinals go from a 3-1 lead to having the Mets bat in the bottom of the sixth with the game tied at one. Chavez just made up for his poor offense in this series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
Three Up, Three Down
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Suppan retires his seventh batter in a row as the Mets go in order for the second straight inning. He's thrown just 36 pitches through three innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Pull Hitter
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David Eckstein pulls a 3-2 pitch down the leftfield line for a double to leadoff the top of the third. The score is still tied at one.

Update: Perez has not trouble with Wilson as he strikes out for the second time tonight.

Update: Pujols continues to get the Bonds treatment as Albert draws the intentional walk.

Update: On an 0-2 pitch, Encarnacion shatters his bat and grounds into a double play, 5-4-3. The Mets go to the bottom of the third tied at 1 with the top of the order due up.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Swing Early
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Perez is in the strikezone, so Edmonds swings at the first pitch and singles to start the second. Rolen also swings at the first offering, but flies out to center.

Update: Molina bloops an 0-2 pitch into left, and the Cardinals have men on first and third with one out.

Update: Belliard bunts a ball past the pitcher's mound to the second baseman to drive in Edmonds and tie the game at three. It's a saftey squeeze, even though Belliard was a man with a hat!

Update: In case you didn't get the musical reference...

Suppan strikes out to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:43 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hustle Double
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Carlos Beltran smacks a hit down the leftfield line, runs hard right out of the box and just beats the throw to second for a double. Delgado gets a chance to make up for his error.

Update: Delgado walks on a 3-2 pitch. David gets the chance to be Mr. Wright.

Update: Wright bloops one down the wrightfiled line, and the single plates Beltran to give the Mets a 1-0 lead.

Update: Shawn Green lines to Rolen to end the inning, but the Mets score first. Kudos to Green for having an extremely clean batting helmet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Game Seven Underway
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David Eckstein flies out to center to start the game. Rolen is in the lineup, Spiezio is not.

Update: Perez is very sharp in striking out Wilson looking.

Update: Oops. Delgado calls for a pop up in front of the plate, but Carlos drops it and Pujols ends up at second base. A poor play by Delgado.

Update: Encarnacion flies out to shallow right to end the inning. Perez was extremely sharp, throwing strikes in all parts of the zone. He threw 12 pitches, 10 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lou Already Brilliant
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Hendry on Piniella, sort of. :-)

After the announcement, Cubs GM Jim Hendry praised Piniella's sound judgment and pure baseball instinct, saying that "his ability to make quick, smart decisions like this one is exactly why we hired him."
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Towelling Off
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A very impressive display of towel twirling by the Shea faithful as Fox throws to the ballpark.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Aaron and Bonds
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Roch Kubatko notes that Henry Aaron won't attend the game if and when Bonds passes Hank's home run record:

"First, I don't like to fly," Aaron told the Oakland Tribune this week. "And if I come, there's going to be some controversy. And if I don't come, there's going to be some controversy."

...

"I have pride in the record, but records are made to be broken," Aaron told the Tribune. "But the reason I don't want to get involved is everybody is innocent until proven guilty, and we can talk, we can talk, we can talk, but until there's proof, I have no comment."

A few years ago Hank and Barry did a funny commercial in which Bonds is taking batting practice and Henry's voice is coming over the loud speaker discouraging Barry from going for the record. I guess Aaron wants less to do with Bonds at this point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:46 PM | Records | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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This is one of those days I'm almost willing to chuck out sabermetric analysis and go for the great story lines of this game. It starts with the pitching matchup. Jeff Suppan is a twelve year veteran with one good year under his belt (2005 with St. Louis), and he's starting for the Cardinals tonight. He turned his career around at age 29 when he joined St. Louis. Before that he earned a .453 winning percentage and a 4.90 ERA. Since hurling for the Cardinals, he's gone 44-26 with a 3.95 ERA. He's a great example of a late bloomer, a pitcher who might have benefited from a couple of more years in the minors.

Oliver Perez also posted one good season in a much shorter career. Unlike Suppan, however, that one good season was spectacular. The idea that a team can help Oliver return to that form will keep him around the majors for a few more years. In his short time with the Mets he's already shown improvement, striking out more and walking fewer, although his home runs allowed remain high. He's certainly one of the more unlikely game seven starters you'll see. This does seem to be the post season of pitching redemption, so a great start by Perez would fit in perfectly.

One thing that should help Perez tonight is three of the righties he'll face are banged up. David Eckstein and Scott Rolen suffer from shoulder problems, while Albert Pujols is nursing a sore hamstring. I wonder if La Russa will play the hot hand and start Taguchi in left and Spiezio at third? Rolen did double late last night, but earlier in the evening he looked pretty bad at the plate. If one of the Cardinals walking wounded come through, it's another great story for the papers.

There will be comparisons to the 1986 World Series if the Mets win, coming back with two wins at home. Maybe even a Knight to Wright story if the Mets third baseman comes through.

There are a number of players on both teams I really like. David Eckstein, Albert Pujols, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Jim Edmonds, David Wright and Shawn Green. And the Mets manager, Willie Randolph, was one of my favorites growing up.

So sit back and enjoy the game. La Russa batting substitutions and Randoph's bullpen use should provide lots of second guessing. Look for unlikely heroes and starts stepping up. I can't wait.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Perez to Start
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Oliver Perez gets the nod from Willie Randolph for the start in game 7.

Thus it becomes official: Perez, whose 3-13 record and 6.55 ERA makes him statistically the worst pitcher ever to draw a postseason start, will start the game the Mets need to advance to the World Series.

Randolph's options were limited. He could have opted for Game 3 starter Steve Trachsel, who retired just two out of the dozen batters he faced and may have lost face with teammates when he departed after taking a liner off the thigh, or Darren Oliver, who pitched six scoreless innings in relief of Trachsel but hasn't started a game all year.

Perez went 5 2/3 innings in Game 4 and gave up three home runs, but emerged the winner in a 12-5 Mets blowout.

Perez likely won't get the chance to give up three home runs this time. I suspect the Mets bullpen will be active from the first pitch. Of course, he may pitch well. If Kenny Rogers and Jeff Weaver can put together fine post seasons, why not Perez? :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Relaxing Winter
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Apart from the manager search, the Oakland Athletics are pretty much set for next season:

The A's have three free agents. Barry Zito is gone, Frank Thomas is probably coming back, and Jay Payton's status will depend on his asking price and what else is available.

"We've only talked briefly about some of our personnel issues," general manager Billy Beane said. "We haven't got really in depth at addressing some our key needs yet."

The key decisions: a starter to replace Zito, an outfielder if Payton isn't brought back, and which players already under the team's control to offer a multiyear contract.

Approximately $44.5 million is committed to nine players: catcher Jason Kendall; outfielder Mark Kotsay; infielders Eric Chavez, Mark Ellis, and Bobby Crosby; and pitchers Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Jay Witasick and Esteban Loaiza.

Last year's payroll was in the mid-$60 million range, but many young players are due significant raises.

Nine are eligible for salary arbitration: outfielders Milton Bradley and Bobby Kielty; infielders Antonio Perez and Marco Scutaro; backup catcher Adam Melhuse; and pitchers Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero, Kirk Saarloos and Joe Kennedy.

Of course, if market inefficiencies appear, expect the front office to try to exploit those.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
October 18, 2006
Remember the Maine
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John Maine didn't have his control again, walking four and hitting a batter, but unlike game two he didn't give up a home run. His two hits were shorter this time, and that allowed him to take a shutout into the sixth. Carpenter pitched a fine game, but just didn't get the offensive support. So it's up to Suppan and a yet to be named Mets starter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:17 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals in the Ninth
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The Mets failed to score in the bottom of the eighth. The Cardinals have three outs to score four runs and send Encarnacion, Rolen and Belliard to the plate in the ninth.

Update: Wagner starts the ninth for the Mets. It's not a save situation so he could implode.

Update: Encarnacion singles to right-center to start the ninth.

Update: Rolen doubles off the wall in left. The Cardinals have runners at 2nd and 3rd with none out.

Update: Belliard grounds to third. Wright holds the runners and throws out Ronnie. Molina is up.

Update: Molina hits the first pitch to shallow center where Beltran catches it. Encarnacion can't advance from third. Taguchi pinch hits.

Update: Taguchi does it again as he rips a double down the leftfield line. That makes the score 4-2 and brings the tying run to the plate.

Update: Wagner falls behind Eckstein 2-0. But he gets David to ground to second base to end the game and force a game 7. I can't wait. It's a fun series so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals Gone in the Eighth
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Heilman allows a single to Pujols but that's it as New York pitchers post their eighth shutout inning of the night. Three outs to a game 7.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Duke of Queens
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The Mets pick up two singles and two stolen bases to put men on second and third for Lo Duca with with outs. He hits a line drive single that plates both runners and puts the Mets up 4-0 in the bottom of the seventh. The Mets are six outs away from pushing this series to a game seven.

Update: Rolen makes an error on a grounder by Beltran. Rolen is in the game for his glove, not his bat tonight.

Update: No harm from the error as Delgado grounds out. The Mets pen now needs to hold a four run lead for two innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Chris for Chris
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With a runner on first and one out, the Cardinals pinch hit for Carpenter with Duncan. Carpenter gave St. Louis six strong innings, good enough to win most games. He was efficient, throwing just 76 pitches, 52 for strikes. If the Cardinals were in the lead, Duncan would still be on the bench.

Update: Randolph brings in the right-hander Mota rather than the left-hander Feliciano to face the lefty Duncan. Duncan homered off Feliciano last night, but Mota gives up more power to lefties. This time, however, Duncan grounds into a double play. Mets relievers are two for two tonight, coming into the game and inducing the GDP.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Maine Done
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John Maine issues a walk, then gets a fly out in the top of the sixth. He also reaches 98 pitches and Randolph goes to the bullpen. Maine didn't throw a high percentage of strikes (54 of 98), but he kept the hits low and the Mets should be very happy with his performance. Chad Bradford tries to continue John's success.

Update: Bradford falls behind Rolen 3-0, but induces him to hit into a double play. Edmonds executes a good take out slide, but Rolen is so slow he's thrown out anyway, despite the delay in the relay throw.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Easy Fifth
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Maine finally controls the top of the Cardinals order, retiring Eckstein, Spiezio and Pujols, Albert on a strikeout. He's thrown 86 pitches through five innings. To his credit, Randolph has Bradford warming in the bullpen. Maine isn't going to be given room for error the rest of the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Setting the Table
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Beltran and Wright pick up singles to put men on first and second with one out. Green punches one to the right of Eckstein to drive in the second Mets run. Both Beltran's and Green's hits took advantage of Eckstein playing the left-handed hitters up the middle.

Update: That's it for the Mets. They take a 2-0 lead to the top of the fifth. Through four innings, both pitchers put six men on base, but all of Carpenters came off hits, while Maine used three walks and a HBP. That just doesn't move the runners very far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:33 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
One Bunt, Two Bunts, Good Bunt, Bad Bunt
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Endy Chavez bunts for a base hit leading off the bottom of the third, but Maine fails to advance him with a sacrifice, fouling off a two strike pitch with a bunt and striking out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:11 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Eckstein's Eye
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David Eckstein leads off the third inning with a walk, the first issued by Maine. One every three innings was his rate during the regular season, but once again Albert Pujols is likely to come up with a man on base.

Eckstein steals second to put himself in scoring position for Spiezio.

Update: Maine strikes out Spiezio, and then intentionally walk Pujols. Even with a bad leg. Pujols is scary.

Update: Edmonds flies out to right, but deep enough for Eckstein to tag and go to third. Two outs for Encarnacion.

Update: Maine gets ahead of Encarnacion 0-2, wastes one outside then strikes him out swinging at an inside pitch to end the inning. Maine's pitch count is still high, however, as he's thrown 61 pitches through three innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 PM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Reyes Power
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Jose Reyes gets a low pitch from Carpenter and golfs it off the big scoreboard in right-center to put the Mets up 1-0 in the bottom of the first. He just made Maine's life a little easier. During the regular season, Reyes hit two home runs in six games vs. the Cardinals.

Update: That's all the Mets get as Carpenter retires the next three batters. To the top of the second!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:36 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Game Six Underway
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John Maine gets Eckstein to ground out to third on a 2-1 pitch to start game six.

Update: Spiezio dumps a fly into right center for the first hit of the game. There's a man on for Pujols.

Update: Pujols singles down the leftfield line on a 2-2 pitch. Albert was going to stop at first, but Chavez threw to third which allowed Albert to reach second. Edmonds is up with two men in scoring position.

Update: Edmonds strikes out swinging, but Maine hits Encarnacion to load the bases. Scott Rolen is coming up.

Update: Maine gets out of the jam as Rolen flies out to right. John needs to do a better job of keeping runners off base if he's going to survive tonight, however. He's already thrown 27 pitches in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 7 PM EDT, an hour earlier than usual. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:46 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Leitch on Sample Size
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Will Leitch of Deadspin pens an editorial in the New York Times:

Much is written by statistical analysts about "sample size" in baseball, and the playoffs are the most extreme example. If the Royals, one of the worst teams in baseball, played the American League champion Detroit Tigers in a 10-game postseason series, they'd win at least 3 -- probably more. A bad team beating a good team is not particularly difficult, or unusual. Yankees fans can take some solace in this. The Yankees were an outstanding team this year. In the playoffs, though, they ran into three Tigers pitchers who pitched dominant games those particular days. The Yankees didn't lose because A-Rod wasn't "clutch" or because Joe Torre forgot how to manage a baseball team or because the Tigers had more "heart." They lost because the Tigers happened to win three games in a row.

It happens all the time during the regular season. We just don't notice. Sportswriters say the Tigers "got hot at the right time," but they weren't saying that one week earlier, when they lost three at home to the Royals to end the season. Did the Royals just have more heart?

The Cardinals are on the cusp of the World Series, and if they win it, no one will care about September losing streaks. (I know I won't.) The World Series does not establish the best team; it just compacts 162 games into seven or so frenzied ones. This lottery nature is what makes it so exciting. Ya gotta believe, because you never know when your number's coming up.

The Mets hope their number is the better one tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 PM | Post Season | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Bat Man
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Popular Mechanics profiles Andy Byrnes, one of the people who manufacture the Sam Bat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:27 PM | Equipment | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Uribe's Side of the Story
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Juan Uribe tells EPSNDeportes his side of the shooting story:

"I'm completely innocent," Uribe told ESPNdeportes.com. "They're trying to extort me because they know I play in the major leagues. They sent word to me that if I give them 1,000,000 pesos [about 33,000 U.S. dollars], all of this will go away."

...

"I was at home talking to my father when all of this happened," Uribe said. "There are a ton of witnesses that can corroborate what I'm saying. No one saw me in the place where the shooting happened.

"Just like me, [Gonzalez] grew up here and has lived all his life in Juan Baron," Uribe added. "He was banging on a public telephone next to my car and I told him to stop. Things went no further than that. Afterwards, I was at home, which is very close to the park where the incident happened, and I heard shots. My brother and friend came over and told me that they had argued with [Gonzalez] and [Alessandro]."

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:42 PM | Crime | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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It's the first do-or-die game of the NLCS as the Cardinals send Chris Carpenter to the mound to attempt to clinch a berth in the World Series. Rookie John Maine stands in opposition. Chris did not pitch well in game 2 vs. the Mets. The most telling statistic was his four walks and just one strikeout in five innings. Chris showed great control during the regular season, walking 43 and striking out 184. Maine is showing less control in the playoffs as well, walking seven in 8 1/3 innings after issuing a free pass once every three innings during the regular season.

My general feeling is that the Cardinals own the advantage with Carpenter. But he's pitched poorly enough in his last five outings that it's not a sure thing. I also wonder if Maine will make adjustments. With two post-season starts under his belt, you might think he'll have fewer butterflies this time around. This game could easily be a slugfest as a pitching duel.

The last time the Mets played a game six at Shea, it turned out to be one of the most memorable games in playoff history. I'm hoping tonight's is as good.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:20 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at a special time, 7 PM EDT. That way, you can listen to the show and not miss any of the playoff action! Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Disc Dissection
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Randy Johnson opted to undergo back surgery:

Yankees pitcher Randy Johnson will have surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back that hampered him during the final weeks of the season.

General manager Brian Cashman said last week that surgery was probable, but that the Big Unit would first be examined by Dr. Robert Watkins in Los Angeles.

"He's consulted with Watkins. He's going to need surgery," Johnson's agent, Barry Meister, said Tuesday. "I need to talk to Brian about scheduling, but it most likely will be during the week next week."

It's not clear if he'll be ready for the start of spring training, but it doesn't appear that he'll be too far behind.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM | Injuries | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
3,000,000
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The web counter on this page looks like it's going to hit 3,000,000 today. If you happen to be the lucky 3,000,000th visitor, please let me know.

I want to thank everyone who visited, read, researched and supported this site over the last five baseball seasons. Your visits helped turn this site from a hobby into a business for me. Thank you for assisting me in doing something I love.

Update: The counter turned over a little before 2:00 EDT. Thanks to everyone!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM | Blogs | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
A Bargain
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While the Red Sox are slowing the rise in ticket prices, the Arizona Diamondbacks are actually lowering some prices:

Eighty-six percent of the tickets to the Diamondbacks games this season will remain the same price or be reduced, Diamondbacks President Derrick Hall said Tuesday.

"Over 70 percent of the tickets will be $20 or less," Hall said at a luncheon in Chandler. "For a single game, we've created a more affordable ticket, and a number of (upper-level) seats will be just $5."

Arizona appears to be a team on the rise as well. The teams is going to offer good baseball at a reasonable price. You can't beat that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:51 AM | Tickets | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Family Ties
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The New York Daily News explores the family links between the 1986 and 2006 playoffs:

The Mets spent the summer celebrating the 20th anniversary of their accomplishments in the fall of 1986. Now, thanks to Mookie Wilson's stepson, they're on the brink of elimination. Preston Wilson's RBI double in the fifth inning off Tom Glavine put the Cardinals ahead to stay on the way to a 4-2 win in Game 5 of the NLCS last night. In a scenario that might be eerily reminiscent of 1986, the Mets need to win Game 6 tonight to force a winner-take-all finale tomorrow.

They faced a similar plight the last time there was a Game 6 at Shea - Oct. 25, 1986, when they had to beat Boston to keep hope alive in the World Series. Mookie Wilson hit the grounder that turned Bill Buckner into a New England goat and let the winning run score, setting up the Mets' Game 7 victory. It is their last World Series title.

Preston Wilson wasn't reading anything into last night's big moment and wouldn't ascribe it to Wilson family fortune or fate. He preferred to simply enjoy the moment.

"If anything, it's just nice to know my father and I each had a chance to do something in the postseason," said Wilson, who was the Mets' first-round draft pick in 1992 and played eight games for them in 1998 before being traded to the Marlins in the deal that brought Mike Piazza to Shea.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | Players | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Frisky Phillies
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff reviews the moves the Phillies are thinking of making over the off season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM | Transactions | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Budding Manager?
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The Giants received permission to speak with Bud Black, the pitching coach of the LAnaheim Angels. I'm wondering how Jeff Weaver's turnaround should reflect on Bud. Jeff was so bad with the Angels he was released. He didn't pitch great for the Cardinals, but he was much better and in the post season he's been excellent. If San Francisco interview Black, should the first question be, "Why didn't Jeff Weaver respond to your coaching?"

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 AM | Management | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Nothing New Conference
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The Red Sox held a news conference yesterday but refused to talk about specific issues.

The Red Sox front office declined to answer questions yesterday concerning a number of topics, including payroll, their interest in Japanese righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka, whether they were going to deal Manny Ramírez, their free agents, and pitcher Jon Lester, who was stricken with cancer during the season.

Lucchino and Henry both declined to speak about threshold tax and the team's payroll because both of them indicated there are currently ``sensitive" basic agreement issues being discussed in New York. The basic labor agreement expires at the end of this year.

What is clear is that Theo's philosophy, the thing that caused the rift last October, took hold:

Watching the success of the World Series-bound Tigers struck a chord with Epstein. ``The primary goal of ours is to be able to develop home-grown talent and integrate it on the major league roster," said Epstein, who will turn 33 Dec. 29. ``There's an additional challenge in certain markets, including here, where there's a strong desire to have a competitive team every single year. It's a little more difficult to be patient. It doesn't make it any less important. For us to be the organization we want to be, we have to be good at being patient.

``It doesn't mean ever giving up on any one season. It doesn't mean lowering your goals because we're trying to get to the playoffs every single year. It means being good at being patient. We've had a good track record at being patient in some respects, but we've also had some missteps. It's clear going forward what we need to do to being better at it and we're all committed to it."

Lucchino, on the other hand, is just too clever:

Lucchino, asked whether the team would consider lowering prices if they knew they were in a rebuilding mode, said, ``We're pretty mindful of the escalation of ticket prices. If you've seen what happened since we've been here, you see a declining trend in levels of increases.

Why not just tell the truth. As long as every game sells out, the Red Sox will keep raising prices. Because if every game sells out, the tickets are probably priced too low.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:41 AM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 17, 2006
In Command
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With the win tonight, the St. Louis Cardinals take command of the NLCS. Tomorrow night, they send Chris Carpenter to the mound against John Main, a rematch of game two. St. Louis has to like their chances with the defending Cy Young winner on the mound. However, three of Carpenter's last five starts were poor. He gave up twelve runs over his final two starts of the regular season, pitched great against San Diego in the playoffs, then poorly again vs. the Mets. I suspect, however, he'll be at the top of his game tomorrow. The Mets need to work Carpenter hard tomorrow and try to get in the bullpen early. And it would help if Maine pitched more like he did during the regular season and issue fewer walks. It's going to be fun.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Mets in the Ninth
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Endy Chavez leads off the ninth with Floyd on deck.

Update: Chavez grounds out to short for the first out of the inning. Floyd will bat for the pitcher.

Update: Floyd grounds out to Pujols.

Update: Reyes strikes out swinging. St. Louis wins 4-2 to go up 3-2 in the best of seven series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:41 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Miles to Go
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Aaron Miles came in on a double switch, and triples to right with one out. That brings up David Eckstein. Miles picked up five triples during the regular season.

Update: Eckstein tries a squeeze, but Mota throws the ball inside and David fouls it off, getting his hand squeezed between the ball and the bat. He ends up popping up to second.

Update: Wilson grounds out to end the inning. The Mets send up the 8, 9 and leadoff spot to face Wainwright.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:31 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mets in the Eighth
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The Mets hold the Cardinals scoreless in the bottom of the seventh. New York sends up the heart of the order, Beltran, Delgado and Wright in the top of the eighth.

Update: Kinney picks up his third strikeout as Beltran checks his swing at a breaking ball in the strike zone.

Update: Delgado singles past the fringe of the infield. Belliard was playing deep, and got to the ball but didn't have a chance to throw out Delgado. The slumping David Wright is up.

Update: David Wright says, "What slump?" and doubles down the leftfield line to put runners on second and third. Flores will enter the game and face Shawn Green. Will the Cardinals bullpen be their undoing again?

Update: Green flies out to shallow center, and the runners hold.

Update: Wainwright comes in to face Valentin and try to pick up the four out save. Does Cliff Floyd pinch hit?

Update: No, Valentin bats.

Update: Valentin strikes out looking. That's four K for the Cardinals bullpen in two innings after Weaver only struck out one through six.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Kinney in the Seventh
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The rookie reliever comes in, strikes out Tucker, then Reyes and then gets Lo Duca to ground out. An easy and effective inning for Kenny, and the Mets are down to six outs for two runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Weaver Through Six
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Jeff walked a batter with two out in the sixth, but gets out of the inning with an Endy Chavez ground out. With 95 pitches thrown and his spot due up in the bottom of the inning, he's likely done. That three very good performances by Weaver this post season. I did not expect that at all.

Update: Duncan does indeed pinch-hit for Weaver, and sends one deep down the rightfield line for a home run. The Cardinals now lead 4-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Fifth
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For the second time tonight, David Eckstein leads off an inning with a single. It's the third time the Cardinals put the leadoff man on. Wilson follows with a double, and for the first time for St. Louis, the leadooff man scores. The Cardinals take a 3-2 lead and are in a position to get more.

Update: Glavine issues an intentional walk to Albert Pujols.

Update: That's it for Glavine. The Mets go to Chad Bradford.

Update: La Russa asks Encarnacion to bunt. He fouls off two pitches, then dumps a single into right to load the bases.

Update: Rolen strikes out on a low, inside pitch. One out, bases still loaded.

Update: Bradford does his job, and the Mets bring in Feliciano.

Update: Edmonds grounds to Delgado, who throws out Preston Wilson at the plate. Two down.

Update: Belliard flies out to left to end the inning. Nice job by the Mets bullpen to defuse the threat. They allow a bloop single to Encarnacion and that's it. The Cardinals, however, lead 3-2 after five innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Pujols Gets One Back
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Albert Pujols can still generate power with the bad hamstring. He just clears the fence in left for a one-out solo home run. The Mets now lead 2-1.

Update: With two out, Glavine issues his first walk of the night, putting Rolen on first.

Update: Edmonds singles to right to put runners on first and second for Belliard. Ronnie is hitting .200 in the series.

Update: Belliard grounds one between Delgado and Valentin to tie the game at two. Looking at the replay, Delgado broke toward first on the ball. It struck me that if Delgado went for the ball, he might have fielded it.

Update: Glavine walks Molina to load the bases. Weaver is up, and Glavine is having problems finding the plate right now.

Update: Glavine falls behind Weaver 2-0, but induces a ground ball to short to end the inning. The game is tied at 2 after four innings.

Neither is doing a great job of throwing strikes. Glavine is at 52%, Weaver 59%.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:33 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Broken Base
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The top of the fourth is being delayed as they try to fix first base.

Update: They find a way to fix first, and Carlos Delgado winds up there as Weaver issues the first walk of the game.

Update: An alert fan helps the Cardinals. Green doubles down the rightfield line, and a fan reaches over to grab the ball and keep Delgado at third.

Valentin, however, picks up both runners with a double over Albert Pujols. The Mets get to Weaver in the fourth for a 2-0 lead.

Update: Chavez and Glavine ground out to end the inning. But the way Glavine's been pitching in the series, two runs may be more than enough.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Double in the Second
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Endy Chavez came into the game batting .133 in the series, but he doubles down the left field line with two outs. Unfortunately, Glavine is due up next and grounds out. It's one of those situations where I wonder if you should pinch hit for the pitcher? I think the Mets will get to Weaver, but Jeff pitched very well so far in the post season. You might need that one run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Shoulder Okay
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David Eckstein shakes off the effects of the two dives in the top of the first to lead off the bottom of the inning with a single to right.

Update: Eckstein steals a base, but that's all the Cardinals get in the fourth. Glavine's scoreless inning streak continues.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Game Five Underway
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David Eckstein dives for the first two balls in play, and appears to have hurt his left shoulder. The first dive resulted in an infield single by Reyes. On the second, he was able to force Jose at second, putting Lo Duca at first for Beltran.

Update: Beltran pulls a single into right to put runners at first and second for Delgado.

Update: Delgado grounds into a force at second. Three of the four balls in play have been on the ground.

Update: Wright strikes out swinging to end the inning. The sent five batters to the plate, but really didn't work Weaver as he throws just 16 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:23 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Piniella Not Offended
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Lou Piniella stuck up for Steve Lyons today:

New Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella called the firing of Fox baseball broadcaster Steve Lyons "an unfortunate thing" and said he thought his TV colleague was just kidding when he made a racially insensitive comment.

"There isn't a racist bone in his body. Not one," Piniella said Tuesday. "I've known the guy personally. He was kidding with me, nothing more and nothing less. It was an unfortunate thing."

I agree with some of the comments made to this post and this post, that the firing was more Fox looking to get rid of a poor broadcaster and using this as an excuse.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:19 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
DirecTV Better Get TBS-HD Up
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TBS won the right to broadcast the LDS and one of the LCS series starting in 2007 through 2013.

In July, baseball agreed to a new seven-year contract with Fox and Turner Sports, a deal reportedly worth more than $400 million.

The deal included TBS being the exclusive home of the division series round starting in 2007. The division series is currently televised on Fox and ESPN.

Now TBS will also televise league championship series starting in 2007 with the NLCS. The network will alternate between the leagues for the duration of the contract, which runs through 2013. Both the NLCS and ALCS are currently on Fox.

"We are proud to add a sports programming crown jewel like the league championship series to what was already a landmark MLB package," said David Levy, president of Turner Sports.

A few years ago I give this the thumbs up. In my opinion, TBS did one of the best broadcasts in baseball. But I watched a lot of Braves games down the stretch on Turner South and was unimpressed with the broadcasts. I hope they go back to the formula that worked so well when all the games were on TBS.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:20 PM | Post Season | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
So Urgent
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Lou Piniella officially took over the Cubs today:

"Urgency is important," said Piniella, who was introduced today as the team's latest manager. "We're going to win here, and that's the end of the story."

Piniella agreed Monday to a three-year contract worth nearly $10 million, with an option for a fourth year.

"I'm just a little piece of the puzzle. My job is to come in here and unite this team," he said at a news conference.

Piniella said he was assured by general manager Jim Hendry that the Cubs would make moves necessary to improve the team. He brushed off a report that he wanted the Cubs to acquire embattled Yankees star Alex Rodriguez, saying there hadn't been "any discussions about A-Rod." Piniella was Rodriguez's first manager, with the Seattle Mariners in the mid-1990s.

I assume, however, Piniella and Hendry discussed the kinds of players they'd like to acquire. It will be interesting to watch as the two make moves this off season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:34 PM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Uribe Imitates Kenny Rogers
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Juan Uribe was questioned and released by authorities today, but is still a suspect in the shooting of two people:

As Uribe was leaving, he pushed away a Univision camera and shoved an ESPN cameraman in the face. He did not speak to reporters.

The men are suspected of shooting and wounding a Dominican farmer and a captain in the Italian Navy with a pistol and a shotgun when the pair walked too close to Uribe's jeep around midnight Friday, police said.

An arrest warrant issued Monday for Uribe was voided, but he had to turn over his gun to police and appear back at the courthouse later this week, Lugo said. Uribe was scheduled to report to his Dominican winter league team, the Escogido Lions, on Tuesday.

That's a good way to get the press on your side.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:26 PM | Crime | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lidle Remembered
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His family and friends bid Corey Lidle farewell today.

Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle was remembered as "a loving husband and an awesome father" Tuesday at a memorial attended by family, friends and teammates of the avid yet inexperienced pilot who was killed during an aerial tour of New York City.

As the 45-minute outdoor service began, three planes similar to the one Lidle owned appeared over the roof of the Mausoleum of Christian Heritage and flew over the crowd before disappearing into dark gray clouds. The planes later made two more passes.

It sounds like a sendoff Lidle would appreciate.

On another note, take a look at the picture with the article. Doesn't the Yankees brain trust look like they are auditioning for a new FBI TV series? Numb3rs meets Criminal Minds. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:16 PM | Deaths | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Please refer to yesterday's post. The only thing I'll add is that the day off likely helps Glavine more than Weaver simply because Glavine is older. It also means, however, that you may be looking at Oliver Perez to start game 1 of the World Series if the Mets get there, unless you pitch Tom on short rest to start the series, or if Orlando Hernandez is healthy.

Before last night's rainout, the logical choice would have been Tom Glavine. But with Game 5 pushed back, that would put him on short rest again if the Mets do finish off the Cardinals. As for El Duque, who threw a 72-pitch bullpen session Sunday - "He was excellent," pitching coach Rick Peterson said - he believes he can be ready to pitch Game 1. When asked yesterday about the assignment, he smiled and said, "Willie give, I take."

The rain is also likely to help the Cardinals offense, as Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds get a chance to rest their injuries. Although it seems all are in need of a longer layoff, the night off has to help.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pena for Girardi
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Ben Kabak looks at the possibility that Tony Pena moves to Washington to take over the Nationals while Joe Girardi becomes bench coach and heir apparent to Joe Torre in New York.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:37 AM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Natural Mets Fan
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Filip Bondy puts mother nature squarely in the Mets camp.

She didn't think the Mets were quite ready on Wednesday, the scheduled start of the NLCS. Her main man, Tom Glavine, looked a bit weary. Mother Nature sent the rain again, gave him a sixth day off, and Glavine responded with seven shutout innings against the Cards.

But that created another problem on the back end, because now Glavine would have just three days' rest before his next scheduled start in St. Louis. Three days, the old woman had come to learn, was not nearly enough for these modern-day athletes.

Which brings us to last night and the point of this tale. There was no game. "I've turned into the Rain Man," Glavine said. It was no coincidence. Mother Nature would make certain her aging Met starter had four days' rest. Even if Glavine himself and Willie Randolph were telling people it didn't matter to them, they required rescuing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:21 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Discussing the Reds
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Red Reporter is starting discussion threads on each of the Reds players. He starts at the beginning of the alphabet with Rich Aurilia.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:53 AM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lyons Stays off the Dole
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Steve Lyons gets to keep his job with the Dodgers:

Steve Lyons, fired by Fox for on-air comments the network deemed inappropriate, will keep his job as a part-time television commentator for the Dodgers.

The team, in a statement issued Monday, said Lyons would undergo diversity training and that he was given probationary guidelines.

Steve probably learned his lesson more from this, however:

It's believed Lyons was making about $500,000 a year from Fox and the Dodgers, with about three-fourths of that from Fox.

"I'm taking a big financial hit," Lyons said, "but I'm thrilled and proud to continue as a voice of the Dodgers."

Maybe they should include in the diversity training how running off at the mouth can cost you $375,000.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:21 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
New Coach
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The Red Sox hired John Farrell as their new pitching coach yesterday. Farrell leaves the front office of Cleveland to become a professional pitching coach for the first time:

Farrell has never been a pitching coach in the minors or majors, but he was at Oklahoma State from 1997-2001. His organization and pitching knowledge were seen as keys in helping Boston's younger pitchers.

``We wanted someone who could take a very broad view of the job and be able to make a real impact on our pitching staff in terms of wins and losses," Epstein said. ``John has a really good feel for what makes pitchers succeed from a mental standpoint as well as a physical standpoint.

``He's faced a lot of those challenges himself both as a player and as a collegiate coach and as a farm director. He's well-qualified to work with our pitchers on making the adjustments necessary to succeed."

Farrell was never a strikeout pitcher, but in his four good seasons he kept his walks low and the ball in the park. If he can help Beckett with the long ball, he'll be worth it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 AM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Four Managers
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The Phillies hired three ex-managers as coaches yesterday, and Jim Salisbury sees this as putting Manuel on the hot seat:

If Pat Gillick's lukewarm endorsement on the final day of the regular season wasn't enough to make you believe that Charlie Manuel's seat will he hotter than a waffle iron come April, then this little bit of mathematics should be.

The new members of the Phillies' coaching staff have a combined 4,305 games of big-league managerial experience.

Gillick says that Jimy Williams, Art Howe and Davey Lopes are here to help Manuel and the 25 players who will try to break an embarrassing 13-year playoff drought next season. We believe Gillick. We really do. He is personally fond of Manuel - it's difficult not to be - and would like nothing more than to see his good-guy skipper ride down Broad Street with confetti on his shoulders and a contract extension in his hand.

But if the 2007 Phillies get off to another slow start... Watch out, Charlie. You may be flying in first class with your replacement.

Let me suggest something else. Maybe these three are better coaches than managers. The Yankees did the same thing when the hired Pena, Bowa and Mazzilli, three failed managers, but pretty good coaches. Just because you're a good coach doesn't mean you can be a good manager:

The employee's incompetence is not necessarily exposed as a result of the higher-ranking position being "more difficult" -- it may be simply that the position is different from the position in which the employee previously excelled, and thus requires different skills, which the employee may not possess. An example used by Peter involves a factory worker whose excellence at his work results in him being promoted into a management position, in which the skills that got him promoted in the first place are no longer of any use and even prevent the employee from successfully performing his duties as a manager.

I think of Ray Knight and Don Zimmer here. Each had qualities that made them great coaches, but when given full control of the team they faltered. Maybe Gillick is hiring them for their ability to coach, rather than as possible replacements for the manager.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Baker Interested
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Dusty Baker would like to manage the Athletics:

The A's need a new manager, and former Giants skipper Dusty Baker says he'd "be interested."

"In the Bay Area, oh, yeah. It would be nice for me and my family." Baker said by telephone Monday.

Ken Macha apparently didn't communicate enough in the A's clubhouse. Communication is Baker's strong suit. He is the consummate player's manager, a natural leader.

"My best is yet to come," Baker said. "Whoever gets me is gonna get a manager who's on a mission to win. I'm a better manager because of what happened the last couple of years."

Cubs fans will warn you, however, beware mixing Baker with young pitching arms.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:00 AM | Management | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)
Failure to Communicate
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The players who got along with Macha talk about the problems with the manager:

Third baseman Eric Chavez, the longest-tenured member of the team, said several times in a phone interview on Monday evening that he likes Macha and got along with him well personally, but he had seen enough going on around him to realize there were problems.

"The whole thing was a weird situation for me because ever since he came here we had a pretty good relationship, but over the last couple years, I could see things unfold, and I kept hearing things,'' Chavez said. "He's always been very open and communicative with me, and with some other players that wasn't true. I heard some things that were kind of disturbing. I think there are going to be a lot of guys who are happy about this.''

Many of the players felt that the tone set by Macha was gloomy, even when the club was playing well.

"The atmosphere wasn't positive, for some reason,'' Chavez said. "That was hard for us to deal with -- here we are, winning the division, we're banged up but we're still doing what we should be doing, and every time he spoke to us, he'd say how much appreciated the effort, but then you'd read things where he was always smashing people. ... This negative cloud was just eating at everybody.''

Barry Zito concurs:

Some of the players had the impression that Macha was miserable in his job. Starter Barry Zito, who is a big believer in the power of positive thinking, said that Macha dwelled too much on what might go wrong and that that was detrimental.

"The fact is, when you have someone leading people, you want them to be a visionary, to forge ahead and be on the front lines,'' Zito said. "We felt like we were on the front lines, and he might have been with us but he didn't have the same conviction or faith. I think it was a fear of failure. He was a little more focused on the pessimistic stuff than on success.''

It's tough being around a negative person all the time. Still, it really didn't show up in the statistics of the A's. Think what they might do if they have a manager who actually motivates them! They had Jimmy Carter and they want Ronald Reagan.

Thanks to Philip Michaels for the link to the article.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:25 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 16, 2006
Pujols Injured
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Albert Pujols is playing with a bad hamstring:

The St. Louis Cardinals' star has been nursing a right hamstring injury for several weeks and is under orders to run under control. Manager Tony La Russa said the injury also has affected Pujols' ability to drive the ball.

"He doesn't have that big power push," La Russa said. "He's not going to be generating as much power, but he can still generate base hits. Just got to be careful running."

Why would you announce such a thing?

"Mostly I mentioned it so when people watch him running I don't have to answer questions later on about him jogging," La Russa said. "You probably noticed, he's laboring when he runs."

If I'm the Mets, and I know Albert can't generate as much power, don't you pitch him differently? If you think he's going to damage you pulling the ball, you might pitch him away. If you don't, you might go inside more. Is this just a mind game La Russa is playing? Albert seems to hit the ball pretty hard. Something here just doesn't make sense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | Injuries | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
More on Macha
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With Ken Machia fired, I'm trying to figure out his faults as a manager. It's proving difficult to find in the statistical record. The Athletics under Ken posted the 3rd best record in the American league from 2003-2006 (.568), trailing the Yankees and Red Sox. Not only that, but the Athletics exceeded their Pythagorean projection, which would put them at .557, a difference of seven wins. They exceeded their runs created estimate by 19 runs. That's not much over four seasons, but it is a positive. Quick and dirty DIPS puts their ERA at 4.22. The team actually posted a 4.00 ERA. The A's outperformed expectations at every turn. Maybe the front office takes credit for that, putting together a group of players that were greater than the sum of their parts. But Macha certainly didn't hurt anything. If he handled the pitching staff poorly, or handled players injuries poorly, why doesn't it show up in performance that's below expectations?

Billy Beane's competitive nature pushes him to want to win, but sometimes it manifests itself in blaming someone else. He did this after Howe lost the playoffs in 2002, and he's doing the same thing to Macha now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:27 PM | Management | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
No Game Tonight
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Rain postponed game 5 of the NLCS tonight. Glavine and Weaver get to face each other on normal rest tomorrow night. Games six and seven are still scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:02 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Macha Man No More
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Another managerial job opened up as the Atheltics fired Ken Macha.

FOXSports.com has learned that the A's have fired Macha.

The A's averaged 92 wins and captured two AL West titles in Macha's four years as manager. Macha, however, had an uneasy relationship with general manager Billy Beane and, according to the San Francisco Chronicle, also had problems communicating with players.

Well, he communicated well enough to get them to put on a great season-ending push to the division title. I saw a rumor about this earlier, but I expected it to be like last year, when the A's and Macha broke up and then got back together. Funny that Joe Torre survived a drubbing by the Tigers and Macha didn't.

Please, please, please, hire a manager that understands the Moneyball approach to the game. Davey Johnson is available!

Update: A search for Ken Macha on Baseball Musings brings up mostly negative comments.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:48 PM | Management | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Happy Anniversary
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This is the third anniversary of the last gasp of the Curse of the Bambino.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:28 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Tonight the Mets and Cardinals play a critical game 5 as the two game 1 starters face each other again on short rest. Tom Glavine starts on the road for the first time in the playoffs. He'll face Jeff Weaver. Both pitchers are at the top of their games this October. Glavine made two starts, allowing no runs in 13 innings. Weaver made two starts, allowing two runs in 10 2/3 innings. Both came against the Mets in game 1 of this series, and with Glavine's performance, that was enough for the loss.

Glavine's ERA goes up nearly two runs away from Shea. He tends to give up more long balls on the road. Weaver is a five inning pitcher, and on short rest he might not even get that far. Given the performance of La Russa's bullpen last night, Tony hopes he doesn't need to go to the pen early.

I see this game as both a toss up and a determining victory. If the Cardinals win, they send Carpenter in game 6 at Shea. I doubt he'll put together two bad outings in a row. If the Mets win, they just need one big offensive night like Sunday to win the pennant.

Enjoy!

Purchase NLCS tickets.

World Series tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:12 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Piniella Gets Three Year Deal
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FoxSports.com is reporting that the Cubs reached a deal with Lou Piniella and he'll be introduced tomorrow as the new manager. The deal is for three seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:10 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Interview Schedule
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The Texas Rangers are set to interview five candidates for their managerial opening.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:06 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Deleted EMail
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I just accidentally deleted an email from someone with the subject Baseball Blogging/Sports Blogging. The last name started with a B. If you see this, please resend.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:53 AM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Strat-o-Matic Openings
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I play in the Postwar Baseball League. The league is getting ready to expand and is looking for new managers, as well as a replacement manager:

The Postwar Baseball League (PWBL) is looking for a general manager to take over the Seattle Pilots starting in 1966.

Founded before the start of the 1946 season, the PWBL is a play-by-email league that has been in existence for six calendar years. Seven of its original twelve owners are still with the league, testifying to its stability. (One of the original owners describes the PWBL as a "terrific league--best non-FTF league I've ever been involved with by a long margin. . . .") Now consisting of sixteen teams, the PWBL is populated by an exceptional group of GM's, who have a wide and varied knowledge of baseball and its history (and who get along exceptionally well).

Because the PWBL has played twenty complete seasons, it has a rich history of its own, especially in the accumulated statistics. Last year (1965) Robin Roberts of the New York Mets became the second PWBL player to reach 300 wins when he defeated the San Diego Padres in a game in which teammate Willie Mays hit three homers, giving him 67 for the season and 498 for his career. (Warren Spahn, who pitched his last season for St. Louis Cardinals in '65, was the league's first 300-game winner. He retired with 328 victories.) Eddie Mathews is the career leader in homeruns with 546.

The league is remarkably competitive. So competitive, in fact, that no team has ever won back-to-back Mulcahy Cups--named after Hugh Mulcahy, the first major league baseball player to enlist in the armed forces after Pearl Harbor. Twelve different teams have captured the championship in the league's history.

League games are played in round-robin fashion by those GM's who volunteer. Other GM's prefer to stick to the front office, drafting and trading and keeping track of their players. Because of its remarkable stability and quick pace--we finish at least three seasons per calendar year--the league "runs itself," and GM's can fluctuate between active involvement and a more detached interest as their schedules permit.

The Seattle Pilots enter the 1964 season with a strong nucleus, including its Gold Glove doubleplay combination of Bill Mazeroski and Luis Aparicio. Third baseman Tony Perez and slugging first sacker Boog Powell round out its infield. Tony Oliva is the team's leading hitter, while Ken Holtzman and Fritz Peterson are Seattle's top mound prospects. After winning their division in 1962, the Pilots have fallen under .500 and need a new winning attitude.

Looking ahead to the 1969 season, about one calendar year from now, the league hopes to expand by two or even four teams, if we can find responsible, committed GM's willing to build teams from scratch. Our previous expansion, from 12 to 16 teams at the turn of the decade, was a successful one, with new teams quickly becoming competitive. By keeping the ratio of PWBL teams to real-life teams high (currently 80%), we have avoided "All-Star-itis," maintaining player usage at realistic levels by permitting 110% usage for most players, with unlimited usage allowed for mediocre "replacement-level" players.

Ideally, we would like expansion team GM's to join the league far enough in advance that they can become fully immersed in the PWBL even before they begin building their teams, participating in league decision-making, voting on current-season awards, perhaps even lending a hand with game play.

If you are interested in Sixties baseball and think you might like to join the PWBL, please drop a line to David Myers (dgmyers@tamu.edu), the league's commissioner.

I really enjoy seeing the boxscores cross every day. I'm not one of the more active members, but the drafts are challenging, as you balance your needs for the season vs. your needs for the future. Check it out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 AM | Simulations | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The Cost of a Manager
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Jeff at Brew Crew Ball is happy the Cubs are spending a lot of money on Lou Piniella.

I'm getting off-topic here, but I wonder if this shouldn't be the next way in which "smart" teams keep payroll down. True, the difference between a nobody and Piniella/Baker is only $2-$2.5 million, but if there's no real performance difference between a decent manager and a famous one (note I don't say "good") that's money down the drain. After all, the Devil Rays spent a lot of money paying Piniella to lead them to the cellar.

I'm not sure about this. You can do this with players because skills decline over time, and you also have three to six years in which you control a players' salary. But if something works for a manager at age 40, it's probably going to work just as well at age 60. So, if you actually find someone who is good, you're not going to jettison him just to save money. Whereas you can let a 30-year-old all-star go and spend a lot less money to make up most of the lost production.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
How's the Air up There?
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Ducksnorts looks at the development of tall pitchers compared to Chris Young.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
It's Contagious!
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Batgirl discovers the real reason the Athletics lost to the Tigers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:02 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Out in Leftfeild
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The Good Phight finds a replacement for Pat Burrell.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM | Players | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Picking a Nit
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From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

The topic was pertinent because St. Louis faced lefty Oliver Perez Sunday night in Game 4 of the NLCS and is scheduled to take on Glavine again tonight in Game 5. Perez didn't exactly mesmerize the Cardinals, allowing five runs - and three homers - in 5 2/3 innings, but that was more than some expected from a pitcher who was 3-13 with a 6.55 earned run average during the regular season.

Five runs in 5 2/3 innings is about what you might expect from a pitcher with a 6.55 ERA.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Opinions Change
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I remember when these signings weren't thought of so warmly:

The Tigers' pitching is excellent, but the position players have distinguished themselves with clutch hitting and resilience. One of Dombrowski's investments was Magglio Ordonez, who left the Chicago White Sox for a five-year, $75 million contract in Detroit. Ordonez had two home runs in the decisive Game 4 of the Tigers' sweep of Oakland on Saturday night, including a game-ending three-run homer.

He was worth every cent.

Catcher Ivan Rodriguez was overpaid with $40 million over four years, but his handling of the pitching staff, especially the younger pitchers, has been flawless.

No one has complained about the money.

When Ordonez played just 82 games in 2005, fans complained about the money. Why would Dombrowski spend so much on an oft-injured player? When Ivan's weight and offensive production dropped in 2005, people complained about the money. Both those deals took a while to pay dividends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 AM | Management | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
More On Uribe
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CBSSportsline picked up the Juan Uribe story:

According to a police report, Uribe, 27, and his brother, Elpidio, thought that the victims walked too close to their Jeep. Dondolin Alessandro, 41, a captain in the Italian Navy, suffered wounds to his stomach and hands. Antonio Gonzalez Perez, a farmer who tried to intervene, suffered a left-elbow injury but was treated and released.

Alessandro was in the Dominican on a humanitarian mission, El Nacional reported.

I guess in some places a man's jeep is his castle.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:14 AM | Crime | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Reason to Pitch Well
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Albert Pujols gave Tom Glavine a reason to pitch well tonight:

If Albert Pujols didn't think Tom Glavine pitched well in Game 1, "then I hope I do something (tonight) to really impress him," Glavine said.
Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Song Stays the Same
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Gary Peterson explains why the Athletics are not likely to change course and sign Zito.

Look, you don't fix what isn't broken. As we speak, the A's are less broken than they've been since the first George Bush was president. Beane's methodology works better than it ever has.

Likewise, there was a reason the A's were so attractive to Wolff and Fisher in the first place. It was that reason that led them to hand Beane a sliver of sweat equity in the franchise, asking for nothing in return aside from more of the same.

If you understand this, you understand that nothing the team did this season is likely to change the way the franchise does business. In fact, it's likely to have just the opposite effect, since successful ends tend to justify the means.

Zito, then, is a goner, given that the money it would take to keep him would account for a disproportionate amount of the payroll ownership will choose to commit to next season's product. And also because Beane, as always, has a fall-back plan -- in this case a post-Zito rotation of Rich Harden, Esteban Loaiza, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Kirk Saarloos (as this is written).

It's not a sure thing, given Harden's iffy medical history. But it's a rotation most other teams would prefer to have with them than against them. And it is supported by setup man Justin Duchscherer and closer Huston Street.

Beane is good at letting players become other people's problems. The Yankees dealt with Giambi's drug problem. The Orioles deal with Tejada's personality. The Cardinals deal with Mulder's injuries, and the Braves deal with Hudson's decline. Sure, some good ones like Dye and Damon got away. But for the most part, Beane's let other people spend the money (or players) on headaches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:51 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 15, 2006
Cardinals in the Ninth
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Mota starts the ninth for the Mets and gives up a single to Molina. Yadier is hitting .462 for the series. Bennett pinch-hits and strikes out for the first out of the inning. Miles is running for Molina.

Update: John Rodriguez pinch-hits for Eckstein and hits into a double play to end the game. Both starters were hit as expected, but the Mets made mince meat of the rested Cardinals bullpen. New York wins 12-5, and the series is tied at 2. The teams will get to play a game six. It's the first series this post-season that reached a 2-2 tie.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:33 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Even Dozen
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Carlos Beltran homers in the top of the seventh for the 12th Mets run of the game. That gives Beltran seven home runs in eleven post-season games against the Cardinals. With those seven homers, however, he only has 9 RBI.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Getting One Back
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Edmonds shows no ill effects of the crash into the wall as he hits a one-out homer to center to cut the lead to 11-4.

Update: Molina hits a two-out solo shot to cut the score to 11-5. If the Cardinals do that in the next three innings they can tie the game. Perez is done. He only walked one, but the Cardinals got to him with home runs. Still, it doesn't matter much as the Mets offense supplied him with plenty of support.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:35 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Singles in the Sixth
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Hancock starts the sixth for the Cardinals. Reyes and Lo Duca start the inning with singles to put runners on 1st and 3rd for Beltran.

Update: Beltran draws a walk to load the bases. The Cardinals bullpen was very suspect down the stretch, and tonight they're showing why.

Update: Delgado hits the ball over Spiezio's head, and it bounces into the bullpen for a double. Two more RBI for Carlos gives him five for the game. The Mets lead 7-3. The rested bullpen just isn't working out for the Cardinals, and now they may end up over worked with Weaver, a six inning pitcher at best going tomorrow.

Update: Hancock walks right as six out of six batters reach. That's it for Josh.

Update: Tyler Johnson comes in and gives up an rbi single to Green and a bases clearing double to Valentin. It's not clear that the Cardinals will get another out. The Mets lead 11-3.

Update: Johnson gets an out! Endy Chavez strikesout to bring up Oliver Perez.

Update: Perez strikes out looking. Jose Reyes comes up for the second time in the inning.

Update: Reyes drives Edmonds to the wall in center where he makes a great catch with his back to the ball. He hits the wall, but takes the impact with his shoulder, not his head. I wonder if Jim should be wearing a helmet out there?

The Cardinals have their work cut out for them. The need to pick up 8 runs in 4 innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:11 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Eck Connects
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David Eckstein, the mighty mite takes Perez deep leading off the bottom of the fifth. Given that David has a .359 career slugging percentage, maybe Randolph should think about pulling Perez.

Oliver comes back to strike out Spiezio, but the score is now 5-3 Mets.

Update: Pujols strikes out. Maybe the home run woke up Perez. He only had one strikeout coming into this inning.

Update: Encarnacion flies out to center to end the inning. The Mets lead 5-3.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Anthony Reyes Done
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The Cardinals pinch hit for Reyes in the bottom of the fourth, so he's done. He allows two runs on two homers and gives the game to the rested bullpen. Thompson comes in and Lo Duca reaches on an error.

Update: Beltran singles and Delgado follows with a home run to put the Mets up 5-2. It's his third home run of the series.

Update: That's all the Mets get in the fifth, but the bullpen lets the Cardinals down. A good move that just didn't work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
First Walk
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Oliver Perez issues his first walk of the game at an inopportune time, as Pujols follows Spiezio in the lineup.

Update: Pujols hits into a force play.

Update: Encarnacion hits a ball between Beltran and Green. It goes to the wall for a triple to score Spiezio. St. Louis takes advantage of Perez's weakness, and the score is tied at 2 at the end of three innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:10 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Beltran Ties
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Carlos Beltran hit his second home run of the series, a one out shot to right to tie the game at one. One out later, David Wright gets his first hit, a shot to left-center to give the Mets a 2-1 lead.

Update: The Mets exploit Reyes' weakness and in the middle of the second they lead 2-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:01 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Another Near Miss
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The Cardinals put the leadoff man on for the second inning in a row, and with one out Belliard flies to center, but Beltran falls just short of catching the ball. Molina follows with a single to plate the first run of the game. After two, the Cardinals lead 1-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Working the Pitcher
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The Mets haven't scored, but they are wearing out Reyes quickly. He's thrown 52 pitches through two innings, about half his limit. He even walked his opposite number, Oliver Perez. If he keeps putting men on base, eventually they'll come around to score.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Juan Uribe Shooting
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It appears Juan Uribe was involved in a shooting, with him on the trigger side of the gun. A reader who saw the article writes:

Juan Uribe and his brother reportedly shot and injured two people in the Dominican Friday. I don't speak Spanish; Rotoworld apparently has someone who does. They say it may have been self-defense, and that the two injured men have already been released from the hospital.

If anyone can translate, I'd appreciate you leaving a comment.

Update: Here's the Google translation. It doesn't sound good for Uribe.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 PM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
First Hit
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David Eckstein leads off the bottom of the first with the first hit of the game, a single to center. Eck is hitting just .167 for the series, but with a .333 OBA.

Update: Where everything went right for the Mets in Game 1, they haven't caught anything since. With one out, Pujols hits a shot to the left of Wright. In game 1, David catches that ball, but here he just deflects and deadens it. Reyes picks it up, makes a great throw to Delgado, but Carlos drops the ball (shows how slow Pujols runs). Delgado gets the error, and the Cards have runners on 1st and 2nd with one out.

Update: Perez induces Encarnacion to hit into a double play. Both team threaten in the first, neither score. Reyes is avoiding the home run, Perez the walk so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mets-Cardinals Underway
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Anthony Reyes retires the first two Mets batters, but walks Beltran and falls behind Delgado 3-0.

Update: Reyes loses Delgado, putting men on first and second for Wright.

Update: Wright falls behind 0-2, works the count to 3-2, then flies out to center. David still has no hits in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Perez to the Padres?
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The San Diego Padres want to bring Oliver Perez back to the organization as a reliever. It seems the Mets fans in the comments want Rick Peterson to get a chance to work his magic on the starter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:57 PM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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Tonight's game holds tons of potential. With Oliver Perez facing Anthony Reyes, the smart money is on a game with tons of scoring. But it also holds potential for surprises. Anthony posted very good strikeout and walk numbers. His weakness is home runs, a bad weakness for a pitcher against the Mets. But if he can keep the ball in the park tonight, he'll surprise some people.

Oliver Perez pitched a career year in 2004, but came nowhere near that since. That was the only year he showed excellent control. Every once in a while, however, that control comes back, as it did on September 6th vs. the Braves and Oct. 1st vs. the Nationals.

So look for a high scoring game decided by the better bullpen. But don't be surprised if one, or both of these pitchers, finds a groove and pitches well.

Enjoy!

Purchase NLCS tickets.

Purchase World Series Tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:27 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Polanco MVP
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Placido Polanco won the ALCS MVP. Coming into this season, I thought Detroit getting a full year of Palacido at second base would be one thing that improved the club. Instead, the Tigers made it to the playoffs despite Polanco, as he played well below his career norms and was injured to the point he almost hung up his spikes for the season. Quite possibly, the rehabilitation turned him around:

He had to rehabilitate his shoulder, and took a lot of extra swings in the cage before games in the postseason.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Aggressive Running
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John Harper disagrees with Jose Valentin:

But if one play could offer a truer picture, it was Jose Valentin's attempt to stretch a single into a double in the fifth inning with one out. He singled toward the gap in right-center, but Preston Wilson moved quickly to cut off the hit, and, as every player has been told since Little League, you don't take chances on the bases when you're down five runs.

Valentin knows it. He's a heady player, and he could see that his odds were 50-50 at best, because Wilson has a good arm and he was moving in the direction of the throw he needed to make as he fielded the ball. Yet Valentin admitted he felt the need to try to do something special to change the momentum, give his team a spark.

So he went for it. And Wilson gunned him down easily.

"We were down by five, I know you can't afford to get thrown out there," Valentin said. "But the guy (Suppan) hadn't been in any type of pressure situation. I was trying to be aggressive and change the pace of the game.

"It took a perfect throw to get me. But that's the way I play the game. That's the way we've played all year."

Not really. It's true, the Mets have run the bases aggressively, especially Jose Reyes, but usually when they're ahead in games, not behind. They've rarely run themselves out of innings all season, largely because they've played with a belief that their bats would take care of business.

And usually, they were right.


Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Teamwork
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I like this quote by Jim Leyland:

"Early on in spring training, we had a lot of good players, we didn't have a good team," an emotional manager Jim Leyland said. "Today I can make the statement that we've got a good team and that's the thing that I'm proudest of."

That's certainly one job of a manager, to get a number of individual talents to play as a team. Leyland certainly did a fine job of that this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:32 AM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Nice Win, Don't Get Cocky
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Cardinals Diaspora is feeling somewhat superior this morning:

Dominance or overrated? Sorry Met fan, you can't have it both ways. The vaunted Metropolitan offense went limp on Saturday night making Jeff Suppan look like a combination of Bob Gibson and Walter Johnson rolled into a middle-aged pudgy white guy. In going a so strong 8 innings the damage wasn't limited to a demoralizing loss. Oh, no. The former Cub, Steve Meatball Trachsel managed to get the pen warmed before they had a chance to get cold. Nice job, cubby. Nice. So in summation the Mets are down 2-1 with 3 more games (?) in a row yet to be played with a very used bullpen. I have a distinct feeling that the overwhelming hubris of many of our new found friends below is weakened. The bandwagon is emptying. Jerry Seinfeld is cringing. It's getting ugly in second class land.

I do remember the 1998 Yankees falling behind Cleveland 2-1 in the ALCS, but the Cleveland fans I knew at the time were more excited that they might win rather than "in your face." And, as I wrote last night, Oliver saved the bullpen. It's not spent at all. They'll need it tonight, but my guess is Randolph won't let Perez get in as much trouble as Trachsel. I suspect he'll have someone warming in the first, just in case.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Maturing Milton
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The Athletics offered neither recriminations nor excuses after the sweep by the Tigers. And maybe Milton Bradley is finally getting his act together:

But this was a different team. A team with veteran leadership and poised youngsters. A team that could absorb a player whom others considered a cancer and turn him into a star.

'I grew up,' Bradley said when asked what changed this season. 'You make so many mistakes, you've got to quit pointing the finger and look in the mirror and see what you have to do to be different.'

What Bradley grew into was the A's best player in this series. On Saturday, he had three hits, scored a run, almost hit another ball out, and made a great running catch -- most of it after suffering a pulled quadriceps running the bases in the first inning.

It was a great game on one leg, and he almost single-handedly won the game for Oakland. After all his troubles, it's nice to see his talent win out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Barrel
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Bleed Cubbie Blue presents the Worst of Awards for 2006.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 AM | Awards | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 14, 2006
Deja Vu All Over Again
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The Mets in the NLCS are going through something very similar to what happened to the Yankees in the ALDS. The Mets picked up a good win in game 1, suffered a comeback loss in game 2, then get shutout in game 3. The Mets offense hasn't scored in 12 straight innings; the Yankees got to 20. Their third baseman isn't hitting (no hits for Wright in the series) and only two batters are doing any damage, Reyes and Delgado (for the Yankees, it was Jeter and Posada).

Luckily for the Mets, they can't be eliminated tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:12 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Mets in the Ninth
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Jeff Suppan is out after eight innings. He allows just three hits and one walk. Jeff also saves the Cardinals pen, although they weren't as used as the Mets pen.

Update: Kinney is on to pitch to the top of the order as Reyes leads off.

Update: Reyes flies out to left for the first out.

Update: Lo Duca flies out to center. Let's see if Beltran can fly out ot right.

Update: No, Beltran flies out to Edmonds who tracks the ball down in left-center. The Cardinals win 5-0 to take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS.

The story of the game was the starting pitchers. Trachsel couldn't get many out, Suppan didn't let many on. Jeff even homered off Steve, showing just how poor an outing Trachsel pitched.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:59 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Oliver Saves the Mets
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Darren Oliver just finished his sixth inning of work. The Mets haven't been able to score, or even make Suppan work much, but Oliver's work means the Mets bullpen will be fresh tomorrow for Oliver Perez's start. If he didn't pitch well, the Mets pen might have been blown out for tomorrow, and the Mets might be looking at going down 3-1. This way, if and when Perez gets in trouble tomorrow, the whole pen is ready to step in.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:40 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Rolen on a Grounder
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Scott Rolen makes a nice bare-handed grab to throw out Lo Duca to end the sixth inning. If you put Vizquel at short, you wouldn't need any gloves on the left side of the infield. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Suppan Through Five
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Jeff Suppan continues to shut down the Mets offense. Through five, he's allowed just three hits, no walks and struck out three. The Mets helped him in the fifth as Valentin tried to stretch a single into a double and found himself tagged out at second.

Meanwhile, after allowing two of Tracshel's runs to score, Oliver hasn't allowed another run. It's 5-0 Cardinals in the bottom of the fifth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Juiced Up
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Baseball Musings does very well by the Blog Juice Calculator.

My Blog Juice

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:53 PM | Blogs | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Giving Up Too Soon
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With one out and a man on first, Jeff Suppan sacrifices. Delgado picks up the ball halfway down the line and tags Suppan with his glove. However, the ball is in Carlos' hand. If Suppan had run the ball out, he would have been safe, I believe. Instead, Suppan turned and went to the dugout.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:32 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Suppan Goes Deep
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Jeff Suppan gets all of a meatball from Trachsel and bounces it off the top of the leftfield fence for a home run. Where everything was caught by the Mets on Thursday night, everything is falling in tonight. Suppan has a .223 career slugging percentage with one home run. The broadcast just said his one homer was off Trachsel.

Eckstein walks and Wilson singles off Trachsel's leg. Maybe that will make Randolph remove his from the game. It's first and third for Pujols.

Update: Trachsel walks Pujols, loading the bases. Now they're taking him out for an injury, the ball off the leg. Good job by Randolph, getting Oliver all the time he needs to warm up on the mound.

Update: Oliver throws a wild pitch to plate one run, and an Edmonds groundout plates another. It's 5-0 Cardinals.

Update: Spiezio grounds out to the drawn in infield. Two down, Pujols at third.

Update: Rolen grounds out to end the inning. Trachsel is charged with five earned runs in only one inning pitched. He's allowed seven run in 4 1/3 innings pitched this post season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Eck Hits
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David Eckstein picks up his first hit of the series, but Trachsel picks him off first.

Update: The pickoff is costly as Preston Wilson walks to bring up Pujols.

Update: Pujols singles to right to put runners at first and second.

Update: Edmonds pops up the first pitch to Wright for the second out. That brings up Spiezio.

Update: Shawn Green trips as he attempts to dive for Spiezio's fly ball. Spiezio triples for the second time in two nights and the Cardinals lead 2-0. He hit four triples on the season. As long as he gives Green a tough play, Scott ends up at third. If Green's foot doesn't get caught, he makes the catch.

Update: Spiezio is playing left, and Rolen is at third tonight. Rolen walks to put runners at 1st and 3rd. Steve Trachsel is going to need a lot of run support tonight.

Update: Trachsel walks Belliard. Steve has thrown 14 of 25 pitches for balls.

Update: Trachsel comes back and strikes out Molina to end the inning. The pickoff saved at least one run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Mets/Cardinals Underway
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Suppan pops up Jose Reyes and David Eckstein makes the catch.

Update: With two out, Beltran picks up the first hit of the game, a single.

Update: Beltran steals second, but Delgado taps back to the mound on a 3-2 pitch. The Mets are retired in the first without scoring.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
The Tigers Win the AL Pennant
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The Tigers take one more step in a magical season, defeating the Oakland Athletics 6-3. They pitched better, they hit better and they sweep their way to the World Series.

Granderson, Monroe and Polanco did a great job of getting on base. Ordonez didn't hit often, but when he connected it was big. Two home runs today, and he winds up with a slugging percentage of .588 for the series.

Meanwhile, the big three for Oakland didn't hit at all. Frank Thomas's hit total was 0. Swisher batted .100, but managed some walks for a .400 OBA. Sitting at the bottom of the order, it didn't do much good for the A's. There was a lot of offense from Bradley, but he was the only player on the team to bat over .300.

A lot of that was the Detroit pitching. They brought the same baffling pitches they used against the Yankees and handled the A's the same way. They held Oakland to just nine runs in four games. Now they get a week to rest and heal and get ready for which ever team comes out of the NLCS.

This also goes down in history as one of the few series to end on a homer. Ordonez joins Mazeroski, Chambliss, Carter, Boone (and I'm sure I'm forgetting someone). It's a great way to win.

Update: There a Wikipedia page on this. I forgot Todd Pratt and David Ortiz, both in the LDS.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Tigers in the Ninth
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Street comes on for another inning, facing pinch-hitter Thames. Marcus flies to center for the first out.

Update: Granderson hits a high liner into right-center, but Milton Bradley runs it down. Bradley is playing courageously tonight, as he injured his quad in the first inning.

Monroe follows with a two-out single to left. That gives Polanco the chance to be the hero.

Update: Polanco singles to put runners on 1st and 2nd. Ordonez gets a chance to drive in the winning run.

Update: Magglio Ordonez gets all of a 1-0 pitch and drives it deep into the leftfield seats. The Tigers win the pennant! The Tigers win the pennant!

Correction: Fixed the location of the home run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Oakland in the Ninth
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Kielty pops out, but Kendall singles to put the go-ahead run on base with one out.

Update: Kotsay flies out to left. That brings Bradley to the plate. The offense, this series, is concentrated in Milton.

Update: Bradley drives it to the warning track in right, but it falls in the glove of Ordonez. The Tigers get the chance to win the game with one run in the bottom of the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Easy Street
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Street retires the side in order in the bottom of the eighth. He looked shaky on his first few pitches to Rodriguez, but came back to strike out I-Rod and one other in the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Number Nine
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Milton Bradley picks up his ninth hit of the series. He's batting .529. They could use a few more hits from others, however, as Frank Thomas grounds into a 4-6-3 double play to erase the leadoff runner.

Update: That's the seventh double play the A's hit into so far this series. They came into this game with a team .290 OBA. Take away those base runners on double plays and it's even worse.

Update: Grilli follows up the double play with walks to Chavez and Payton. That brings up the slumping Swisher.

Update: Grilli walks Swisher on his twelfth straight ball. That's if for Grilli.

Update: Ledezma comes in to face Scutaro with the bases loaded.

Update: Scutaro pops up behind the plate to Rodriguez. The A's and Tigers both let bases loaded situations go by the boards.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:13 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tiger Comeback
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The Tigers used my dinner time to score three runs, two in the fifth and an Ordonez homer in the sixth that helps chase Haren from the game. Dan pitches five innings, allowing seven hits and two walks while striking out seven. The Tigers hit .500 against him when they put the ball in play. Bonderman reaches 100 pitches after 6 2/3 innings, then comes out. The A's worked his pitch count in the first but not the rest of the game.

The Tigers just put the go-ahead run at second with one out in the seventh on a walk and a single by Monroe and Polanco, respectively.

Update: Colero walks Ordonez to load the bases, and it looks like the A's are going to Street in the seventh. This is absolutely the right moment to use your best pitcher. The season is on the line here, and Detroit is sending their best hitter, Carlos Guillen to the plate.

Update: Street induces a grounder to Chavez. Eric stepped on third, threw across the diamond, and completed the double play. It's not a save, but Street keeps hope alive.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:56 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Getting On
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A single by Polanco and a walk by Guillen put Tigers at 1st and 2nd with one out for I-Rod in the bottom of the fourth.

Update: Haren picks up strikeout number seven as he retires Ivan Rodriguez swinging.

Update: Gomez strikes out to end the inning. Haren bends, but he doesn't break. It's still 3-0 A's.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:44 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Payton's Place
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Jay Payton earned his sixth spot in the lineup with a home run to left to extend the Athletics lead to 3-0. I still don't understand batting Payton in front of Swisher. He neither gets on base enough to give Swisher RBI opportunities, nor does he have enough power to drive in anyone on in front of him.

Swisher follows up with a single, his first hit of the ALCS.

That's all the A's get. But the way Haren's pitching, that may be enough.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:31 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Two Per Inning
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Dan Haren keeps the Ks coming, striking out two in an inning for the third inning in a row. He's also throwing less than 15 pitches per inning. The A's lead 2-0 after three.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:26 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bradley Still Hurt
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Milton Bradley singles to left on what should have been a double. He was clearly in pain as he rounded first. Thomas flies out to end the third, however. The question is how long do you leave him in? Are the A's going to lose this game because Milton can't make a defensive play?

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:18 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ks Keep Coming
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The Tigers get their first hit, but Haren picks up two more strikeouts to run his total to four. This may be the game the Oakland offense and defense get in sync.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:12 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Quick Inning
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Bonderman retires the A's 1-2-3 in the second, without throwing many pitches. The Athletics worked the count well in the first, but they didn't follow through in the second. He's at 37 pitches through two innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:04 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Walk this Way
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Curtis Granderson continues to show a good eye as he leads off the bottom of the first with a walk. Haren does recover and strikes out Monroe.

Update: A ground ball and strikeout later, Haren is out of the inning with no damage. He's now struck out as many in this game as he did in six innings vs. the Twins.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:54 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Steve Lyons Fired
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If you're wondering why Steve Lyons is not in the booth for Fox today, he's been canned:

In the second inning of Friday's game between Detroit and Oakland, Piniella talked about the success light-hitting A's infielder Marco Scutaro had in the first round of the playoffs. Piniella said that slugger Frank Thomas and Eric Chavez needed to contribute, comparing Scutaro's production to finding a "wallet on Friday" and hoping it happened again the next week.

Later, Piniella said the A's needed Thomas to get "en fuego" -- hot in Spanish -- because he was currently "frio" -- or cold. After Brennaman praised Piniella for being bilingual, Lyons spoke up.

Lyons said that Piniella was "hablaing Espanol" -- butchering the conjugation for the word "to speak" -- and added, "I still can't find my wallet."

"I don't understand him, and I don't want to sit too close to him now," Lyons continued.

Fox executives told Lyons after the game he had been fired.

Piniella, approached before Saturday's Game 4, declined to comment on the situation except to say: "No, he's not here today."

I always thought Lyons was a strange choice for broadcasting. He was a stupid baseball player. He just did strange things, like trying to steal third with two outs in the ninth and Wade Boggs up. His mouth finally caught up with him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:39 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (48) | TrackBack (0)
Athletics-Tigers Underway
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Jeremy Bonderman gets off to a good start, striking out Kendall looking on three pitches.

Update: But he follows that up with a walk to Kotsay.

Update: Milton Bradley works the count to 3-2, then doubles to left-center, just out of the reach of Granderson. The A's great on top early, as Kotsay was running on the play and lead 1-0.

Update: Bradley was moving on a foul ball by Thomas and appears to have injured his leg. He stays in, but Thomas eventually pops out foul. Bradley and Thomas each worked the count full, and they've managed to get Bonderman's pitch count up this inning.

Chavez rifles one down the rightfield line. A fan picks it up, and Bradley doesn't need to run hard to score. It's 2-0 A's.

Update: Payton grounds out to end the inning. We'll see if Haren can hold the lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:32 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Happy Anniversary
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Tom Elia notes that this is a doubly important day in Cubs history.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:42 PM | History | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Tigers go for the sweep of Oakland Athletics, and history implies they'll get the win. The team that won the first three games of a series went on to win game four 22 of 28 times. Jeremy Bonderman gets the chance to win his second clinching game. Dan Haren gets the job of trying to extend the Athletics life in the playoffs. Haren didn't pitch great in game 3 of the ALDS, but he didn't allow many runs, either. He only struck out 2 in six innings. He'll need to be closer to his seasonal K per 9 today.

Bonderman put together the start of his career in the ALDS. His fielding independent stats indicate performances like that should be commonplace for him. Oakland was able to put the ball in play against Bonderman in his only start against them. Jeremy only struck out one in seven innings against them.

One way the rain out helped the Cardinals was moving Jeff Suppan's first start to St. Louis. Suppan is 7-2 with a 3.18 ERA at home, 5-5 with a 5.36 ERA on the road. If the rain out didn't happen, he'd have two starts at Shea. Trachsel was hit pretty hard by St. Louis this year, giving up three home runs in 12 innings.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:17 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
La Russa Rolen Rift
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Scott Rolen and Tony La Russa aren't getting along very well these days:

La Russa defended his decision not to personally notify Rolen, citing the player's reaction to being held out of a game Sept. 21 against the Houston Astros.

Rolen construed the game off as a benching against Astros starter Roy Oswalt, against whom Rolen had enjoyed little career success.

"The last time in Houston I sat him down for 10 minutes and explained it to him. My explanation was worthless, so what am I going to say?" La Russa said. "The last time I talked to him it was a worthless exercise. He didn't want to hear it. He didn't believe it. He didn't understand it. I 'benched' him, which is so opposite what that conversation was about."

I always assumed Rolen's desire to leave Philadelphia was caused by Bowa and Greene mishandling him. Now I'm not so sure.

The relationship between Rolen and La Russa has been described by club sources as one of growing mistrust. La Russa acknowledged being disappointed by Rolen's refusal to disclose his weakened shoulder condition despite repeated inquiries last month.

"I told him, 'We lost when you're playing. We can lose without you playing. We want to get you well,'" La Rusa said. "One of the things we said we wanted was to get him here in October strong and fresh. But he wouldn't' admit to that, so we didn't rest him. Then he said he was fatigued."

La Russa minimized the chances that the issue would carry lasting repercussions. "I'm not going to create a problem. I can't believe he's going to create the problem. So where's the problem, except he's worried about playing?" the manager said. "I'm just trying to win the game, buddy."

It appears two huge egos are clashing here. Rolen's a great player, but even without injuries he's on the downside of his career. That alone is difficult for a hyper-competitive athlete to accept. With his shoulder hastening the process, it must be even tougher for Scott.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Managerial Musical Chairs
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Scott Miller at CBSSportsline rounds up the latest news on the search for four new managers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No Advance
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The Yankees fired their advance scouts. What's interesting is that they're in no hurry to replace them:

The Yankees have fired their advance scouts, Chuck Cottier and Wade Taylor. This did not result solely from Cottier's and Taylor's work in preparation for the Yankees' American League Division Series against the Tigers, which Detroit won in four games. The move had been in the works for some time.

'I have no animosity toward the organization,' Taylor told Newsday. 'That's baseball.'

Taylor said Yankees general manager Brian Cashman informed him Wednesday that he and Cottier won't be retained and that the Yankees will enter 2007 without advance scouts. Cashman confirmed the decision on the two scouts but said the Yankees will use advance scouts next season.

There are statistical services that now provide pitch charting synced with video. This makes me wonder if the advance scouting the Yankees say they'll do next year is going to me more high tech.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sweep Likely?
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Are the Tigers about to sweep the Athletics? The comments printed by Wayne Drebs appear to indicate Oakland is a defeated team:

"We've run into a better team," Oakland third baseman Eric Chavez said. "And there's really nothing you can do. They've been better than us in every aspect of the game. I don't have any problem saying that."

What about the 2004 Red Sox?

"We're not the Red Sox," outfielder Milton Bradley said. "We don't exactly have David Ortiz."

I've often wondered why teams that go 3-0 sweep more often that go five games. One reason may be that a team that wins three in a row is truly better than the other team. But I also think this article points toward the mental state of the team that loses the first three. Bradley's statement is especially negative.

There have been 28 series (best of seven or best of nine) in which one team took the first three games. If the contestants were evenly matched, we'd expect 14 game fours to result in wins for the trailing team. Instead, only six teams managed to win game four. That's a 214 winning percentage. The probability of evenly matched teams only winning 6 of 28 is .002. There's more than luck involved here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
The Mightier Pen
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The Cardinals Mets game tonight was all about the bullpens. St. Louis relievers pitched four strong innings, allowing just one run and three hits. The Mets, on the other hand, pitched one more inning and gave up five runs, including a homer to a player who hit two all season. What was a well rested NY pen saw four relievers throw well over 20 pitches while no reliever on the Cardinals threw more than 15. The Mets may need a long start from Trachsel tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:18 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 13, 2006
Mets in the Ninth
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Tyler Johnson enters in the ninth to try to close out the Mets.

Update: Johnson strikes out Delgado, and Wainwright comes in to pitch.

Update: Rolen's in for defense and makes a great play on David Wright, diving to his left to make the stop. It's up to Shawn Green.

Update: Green grounds out to second to end the game. The Cardinals get the split they needed and now hold home field advantage in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Early Entrance
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The Mets bring in Billy Wagner in the ninth with the score tied. He faces Taguchi leading off the inning.

Update: So Taguchi hits his second home run of the post season, equalling his regular season total. The Cardinals take a 7-6 lead as Billy Wagner gets in line for the loss.

Update: Pujols follows with a double to set up a possible insurance run.

Update: Spiezio doubles with one out to drive in Pujols. The Cardinals are three for four vs. Wagner tonight with three extra-base hits. St. Louis leads New York 8-6.

Update: Wagner has nothing tonight. Encarnacion singles to drive in Spiezio to extend the lead to 9-6.

Update: The inning ends with the Cardinals up three runs. The Mets have three outs to score that many.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Mets in the Eighth
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Jose Reyes singles with one out. This is why La Russa didn't pinch run for Molina.

Update: No steal attempt, but Lo Duca walks to advance Reyes to second. Beltran is up against Kinney.

Update: Beltran grounds into a 4-6-3 double play to end the inning. Carlos Delgado will lead off the ninth for the Mets. He's already hit two home runs in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yadier, Yadier, Yadier
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Yadier Molina picks up his third hit of the night, a one out single in the eighth. Preston Wilson pinch-hits for Flores.

Update: Wilson strikes out swinging. Two down for Eckstein.

Update: David grounds out to second to end the inning. The Cardinals will send Duncan, Pujols and Edmonds to the plate in the ninth.

Update: Taguchi comes in to play left. He'll lead off the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Quiet Seventh
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The Mets only pick up a two-out single in the seventh. The game remains tied at six as the Cardinals come to bat in the top of the eighth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pujols Pokes
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Albert Pujols picks up his first hit of the series with two out in the 7th. He lines a ball down the left field line, but once again the Mets defense is up to the task as Chavez plays the carom well and holds Albert to a single. Edmonds walks to put men on first and second for Spiezio.

Update: Scott Spiezio hits a ball to the top of the wall down the right field line. Green leaps and keeps the ball in the park, deflecting it with his glove to the top of the fence. A catch would have been fantastic, but Green prevented the go-ahead run from scoring. The score is tied at six as the umpires confer.

Update: The umpires rule the play a triple, correctly. The Cardinals have Spiezio at third with two out. Tony's looking smart for starting the other Scott at third.

Update: Encarnacion grounds out to end the inning. But the Cardinals come back to tie the game at the stretch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Scoring from First
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Jose Reyes scores on a Lo Duca double down the left field line. With Jose's speed, their wasn't even a play at the plate. The Mets lead 6-4.

Update: Belliard ranges far to his right past second base to throw out Beltran at first. A nifty play.

Update: Delgado pulls the ball this time and grounds out. The Mets take a 6-4 lead to the seventh.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Walking Carpenter
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Rodriguez comes out to pinch-hit for Carpenter with two out and Molina on first. Carpenter leaves the game with 4 walks and 1 strikeout in five innings. In the last two seasons, he's never had a game where he's walked more than he struck out. The last time he walked more than he struck out in a regular season game was 8/10/2004. He walked one and struck out none that day.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:12 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Delgado Does it Again
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With one out in the fifth, Carlos Delgado hits his second home run of the night. Once again, he goes the other way, driving the ball even more toward left field. The Mets lead 5-4. David Wright follows by grounding to Belliard and reaching on an error.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Submariner Sub
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Chad Bradford starts the fifth in relief of John Maine. He threw 88 pitches, only 47 for strikes.

Update: Bradford retires the side in order. Halfway through the game, it remains tied at 4.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:41 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Eck Causes Err
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David Eckstein walks with two out in the top of the fourth, then attempts to steal second. Lo Duca throws the ball into centerfield for the second Mets error of the game, and David ends up on third.

Update: Maine strikes out Duncan to end the inning. He's struck out three but walked five. He's close to taking the reciprocal of his regular season K/BB.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tie Game
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Albert Pujols draws a walk and Jim Edmonds drives him in with an opposite field home run. It wasn't quite as far as Delgado's but it was far enough to tie the game at four.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Deja Vue
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Endy Chavez and John Maine start the Mets second just like the first, with a double and a sacrifice.

Update: Reyes follows with a single to make the score 4-2. Mets fans, what is the crowd singing? It sounds like, "Jose, Jose." Is that a particular song?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals Threaten
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A walk and an error in the top of the second put runners at 1st and 3rd with no one out for Juan Encarnacion.

Update: Encarnacion walks to load the bases. It looks like the strike zone is tight tonight.

Update: Belliard hits an infield fly for the first out. Bases still loaded for Molina.

Update: Molina doubles on a line drive over Delgado. Yesterday, that would have been lower and caught. Tonight, it plates two and keeps the inning going. The Cardinals score their first two runs of the series.

Update: Molina is now 6 for 15 in the series. Carpenter strikes out and Eckstein hits a soft pop to end the inning. The Cardinals make it a one-run game, 3-2 Mets in the middle of the second.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Jose Doubles
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Jose Reyes doubles to right to start the first for the Mets. Lo Duca bunts him to third, as the Mets waste outs early. However, given that Carpenter gives up so few runs, it's not the worst strategy to employ.

Update: Beltran draws a walk to bring Delgado to the plate.

Update: Delgado goes the other way, smacking a ball into the left-center bleachers to put the Mets up 3-0. So far all five Mets runs in the series came via the home run.

Update: Carpenter walks Wright. Given the way the inning progressed, the bunt appears to have been the wrong play.

Update: David Wright avoids a double play twice on one grounder. Green hits the ball to Belliard. Wright is running but turns about so Belliard can't tag him. Belliard throws to first get Green, Pujols makes a good throw to Eckstein to get Wright, but Eckstein misses the tag the first tie, giving Wright a chance to get his hand in.

That's all the Mets do in the inning, however and they hold a 3-0 lead after one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bad Week for Flying
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Alex Rodriguez is involved in an airplane mishap:

A private jet, carrying Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez and six others, overran a runway at Bob Hope Airport on Friday and was brought to a halt by an arresting system. "I spoke to Alex. He's fine," agent Scott Boras said.

None of the seven people aboard were injured, federal officials said.

The Gulfstream G-II carried five passengers and two crew members, the National Transportation Safety Board said in a statement from Washington, D.C.

The twin-engine jet was stopped by an Engineered Materials Arresting System, a 200-foot-long stretch of pavement injected with air bubbles designed to collapse under the weight of an aircraft as large as a Boeing 737 jet traveling as fast as 50 knots, airport spokesman Victor Gill said.

If I'm on the Yankees, I'm not flying for a while.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:10 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals/Mets Underway
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David Eckstein flies out to center to start game 2 of the NLCS.

Update: Maine retires the Cardinals 1-2-3 as Pujols is roundly booed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:06 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Athletics in the Ninth
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Todd Jones comes on to close the game against the top of the Oakland order.

Update: Kendall grounds out to start the inning.

Update: Kotsay hits a slow roller to second and Polanco throws him out. It's up to Milton Bradley.

Update: Bradley grounds the first pitch to the shortstop, and the Tigers go up 3-0 in the series.

The Tigers pitchers allow just two hits and two walks as the Athletics offense is kept just as off balance as the Yankees were against Rogers. Kenny's pitched 16 innings in this post season without allowing a run, a far cry from his previous tries at playoff success. The Tigers have a commanding lead. As the Red Sox showed in 2004, it's not insurmountable, but the odds are very much in favor of Detroit.

In game two, the A's scored enough to win but the pitchers didn't come through. Tonight, the Oakland pitchers held the Tigers in check enough to win, but the offense didn't come through. Maybe the Athletics can get their offense and defense in sync tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:25 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Kiger Counter
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Mark Kiger becomes the first player to make his major league debut in the post season. He takes over at second after Kielty pinch-hits for Jimenez.

Update: Kiger gets a putout and the Tigers don't score. The A's go into the ninth once again needing to score three runs to tie.

Update: I suppose it's possible that Kiger never appears in a regular season game. He's going to be a great trivia question some day.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:13 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Swisher Walks
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Nick Swisher walks to start the inning. Despite Rogers starting to leave his pitches up, Leyland is leaving Rogers in the game. Is Jim pulling a Grady Little?

Update: Rogers gets Scutaro to ground to third. The Tigers get the force at second, but are late turning the double play. And that's it for Rogers. Another impressive outing for the veteran lefty.

Update: Rodney induces Kielty to hit into a double play to end the inning. The A's are three outs away from a 3-0 deficit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:01 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
A Grand Time
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During the regular season, Curtis Granderson drew a good number of walks, but also stuck out often, 66 walks to 174 strikeouts. He drew three walks today after not drawing one in the entire post season. He's been putting the ball in play, however, as he's only struck out twice. That worked out as he came into the game with a .333 batting average in the post season. Granderson and Monroe walk to start the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Polanco tries to sacrifice, but Gaudin takes a gamble and throws the lead runner out at third. The runner looks safe on the replay. If the ump called it that way, the A's would be in a heap of trouble.

Update: Two more ground balls and the Athletics get out of the inning. They need to find some offense in a hurry. They're down to six outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:45 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
First Pitch Swinging
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Frank Thomas just flied out on the first pitch. I remember when Thomas first came up, he almost never swung at the first offering. That's at least the second time I've seen him do this in the post season.

Update: Rogers strikes out Payton and retires Chavez on a grounder. He's now gone 14 2/3 innings without allowing a run this post season. Given Glavine's performance this fall, it seems to be the playoffs of the crafty lefties.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:32 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Harden Done
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Rich Harden hits the 100 pitch mark at 5 2/3 innings. He walks Inge and Macha goes to the bullpen. Detroit's offense approached the young pitcher exactly right today. They allowed him to be wild and took advantage of that before he settled in. They didn't chase pitches in the dirt, they waited for Harden to put the ball in the strike zone. Rich threw 105 pitches, only 56 for strikes. Chad Gaudin takes over on the mound.

Update: Santiago flies out to left to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:24 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Johnny Callison Passes
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Former Phillies outfielder Johnny Callison died yesterday.

Callison was born in Oklahoma and went on to become a three-time All-Star during his 16-year career. A left-handed hitter with a smooth swing, Callison started with the Chicago White Sox in 1958 and established himself as one of the top players in the National League after being traded to Philadelphia two years later.

"He can run, throw, field and hit with power," the late Gene Mauch, who managed Callison on the Phillies, once said. "There's nothing he can't do well on the ball field."

I vaguely remeber him with the Yankees at the end of his career. He posted outstanding OBAs very early in his career, but couldn't carry them through at his peak age. He did replace his times on with power however, twice driving in over 100 runs.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:15 PM | Deaths | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Monroe Goes Deep
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I just got back from dinner, and it looks like all I missed was Craig Monroe's home run. Rogers is spinning a shutout through fives, allowing just two hits and a walk while striking out four. Harden hasn't walked anyone since the second inning. It's 3-0 Detroit at the end of five.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:06 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More Control Problems
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Harden issues two more walks in the bottom of the second, including Santiago, the worst hitter on the team.

Update: Once again, Harden walks Granderson on four pitches. Monroe is up with the bases loaded and two out.

Update: Harden saves his first strikeout for the right moment, getting Monroe to swing and miss a 2-2 breaking ball. He's thrown 47 pitches through two innings, 25 for balls.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:12 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Piniella on the League Differences
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Without doing so directly, Lou Piniella just made a very good argument against the designated hitter. He noted that it's easier to keep utility players ready, since double switches bring them into the game more often. Not that it's more strategy, it just keeps everyone in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Four Pitches, One On
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Harden thows four pitches that didn't look close to the strikezone to put Granderson on with a walk.

Update: Harden falls behind Monroe 3-0, comes back to 3-2, but Granderson and Monroe execute a perfect hit and run, the ball going through the hole vacated by the second baseman. The Tigers have men on first and third with none out.

Update: Polanco goes the other way to plate to pick up a single and plate the first run of the game. Polanco is hitting .556 in the series.

Update: Ordonez grounds to the shortstop hole for a force play, but the Tigers score a run to lead 2-0. Polanco tries to take Jimenez out even though the A's second baseman is moving away from the bag. I had visions for a minute of Oakland losing another middle infielder.

Update: Guillen hits into a 3-6-1 DP. Harden recovers from his early control problems to get out of the inning with just two runs allowed. He was missing low early, and when he brought the ball into the strike zone, the Tigers were ready for it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:42 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Starting Early
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The Athletics and Tigers get underway with first pitch at 4:31. I've never seen a game start more on time. Kendall grounds one right between Inge and Santiago to start the game with an infield single.

Update: It's interesting that Santiago and Perez and both bad hitters, but Neifi bats second and Ramon bats ninth.

Kotsay pops a foul into the first row and Inge makes the catch and nearly dives in. A fan keeps him from falling all the way in, preventing Kendall from advancing. Bradley flies out to center, bringing up Thomas.

Update: Rogers gets ahead of Thomas 0-2 then hits him in the leg. At 44 degrees, that has to sting.

Update: Payton grounds out to Inge to end the inning. Like he did against theYankees, batters get on but don't go very far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:32 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Flying Corey Lidle's Flightpath
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Jeff Wise flys Corey Lidles route for Popular Mechanics and notes the pleasures and pitfalls of that airspace.

Compared to the Hudson, the East River is very narrow as it doglegs right, then left. You don't have much time to watch Brooklyn and Queens scroll past to the east before you bank west and cruise over Central Park. Then you tell LaGuardia tower that you're going back to the VFR corridor on the Hudson, and you switch the radio back to the corridor frequency.

That's how it's supposed to be done. Apparently, Lidle and his flight instructor Tyler Stanger never called LaGuardia tower to get clearance to pass through Class B airspace. Air traffic control at Teterboro says one of the men radioed in that they'd just go a short distance up the river and turn around. But, as noted, the river is narrow, and at low altitudes it's hemmed in by buildings; it's a lot like being stuck in a slot canyon. The day's low overcast made flying conditions even trickier. If Lidle and Stanger had climbed to a safer 1,500 feet, they would have been nearly in the clouds--a very dangerous situation for non-instrument rated pilots.

What if they'd gone straight ahead--that is, continued north? Well, they would have busted right into Class B airspace. Doing that without prior clearance from LaGuardia tower might have resulted in a reprimand, or even the temporary suspension of their licenses. To avoid that fate, they risked a worse one, and lost.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:01 PM | Deaths | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Athletics and Tigers resume the ALCS this afternoon in Detroit as snow and cold loom in the weather forecast. Young Rich Harden takes on the experienced Kenny Rogers. Harden is an unknown in this game. He hasn't pitched much this season due to injury. His appearances result in a ton of strikeouts, a good number of walks and a few home runs. Although they've been better in the post season, Detroit's hitters were not known for their selectivity during the regular season. That could help Harden.

Rogers ranks 17th in the majors in ERA over the last two years (min. 300 IP). If you limit that to AL pitchers, he's sixth. And Rogers strength is exactly the strength you want versus Oakland, few walks allowed. The Athletics' OBA in the post season is .307, as the pitchers they faced do a great job of limiting the free pass.

The Tigers power goes down at home. With the cold weather, runs are likely to be scarce. If the A's can pop a couple of balls over the fence, that might be enough to win this game and give them a chance to comeback from a 2-0 deficit.

In New York, Chris Carpenter faces John Maine as the Cardinals try to even the NLCS at one game each. Chris is 2-0 so far in the playoffs, giving up a few base runners but not too many runs. His 12 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings and no home runs allowed are his stand out accomplishments so far. Maine showed the same strengths and weaknesses in his one playoff start. The difference was he didn't go deep into the game. But Glavine did last night, so the pen should be in good shape if Maine throws a lot of pitches early. That might not be so difficult, as the St. Louis offense is scoring under three runs a game in the post season.

Enjoy!

Purchase ALCS tickets.

Purchase NLCS tickets.

Purchase World Series tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:00 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
The Best Teams
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There are two posts today that look at changing the wild card format. The first is by Bruce Regal at Baseball Analysts, and proposes going back to four divisions and creating a challenge round:

I propose that instead of going directly to a four-team tournament, each of the four divisions first have a "Challenge Round" in which the second place team in each division would have an opportunity to catch the first place team in a series of head-to-head games. In effect, the regular season would be extended for up to another 6 games between the first and second place teams, until one or the other clinches the division. If they end up tied at the end of 6 games, they play a seventh game in the form of a one-game playoff. To provide a few examples of how this system would work, suppose divisions ended as they did in 2006. In a Challenge Round, Anaheim (second place, four games behind) would play Oakland needing six wins in seven games; Minnesota (first place) and Detroit (one game behind) would play, with the Tigers needing four wins in six games; and LA and San Diego (who tied for first) would play a full best of seven game Challenge Round series.

I'm actually more in agreement with the commenters to that post:

There is little evidence that the team with the better record is categorically the "better" team so it seems counterproductive to jury-rig a system designed to produce outcomes more identical to the standings. No rational argument is made as to why this is an end we should be striving for. The 2003 Atlanta Braves had the best record in the NL but were 9th in the NL in ERA, 11th in strikeouts, etc. Why should we engineer an overly elaborate system that basically tries to rig the playoffs so the team with the best record wins? There is no good reason.

It's a petulant reaction to people angered that their flawed teams have been shown up in the playoffs.

Basically, 162 games is not a big enough sample size to tell us which teams are the best. Instead of thinking as the playoffs as a way to determine the best team, think of it as an exciting tournament among the likely best teams in the league. That's a more accurate description.

Ennuipundit modifies this proposal a bit with a play-in game. But, like the first proposal, you're trying to fix something that's not broken.

I'd rather see division winners rather than wild cards in the playoffs, but that would require expanding to 32 teams and going to four team divisions. But I also wouldn't mind going to five six-team divisions and having schedules similar to the ones when the leagues contained 12 teams, and awarding three wild cards.

Basically, if you are defining the best team as the team with the best record, you're not going to achieve a system where that team wins most of the championships. The season is too short to say for sure that the team with the best record is the best team, and the playoff series are too short to say that one team is truly better (as opposed to luckier) than another.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:33 AM | Post Season | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Bochy Looking for Work?
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6-4-2 Links to a post at Gaslamp Ball about San Deigo encouraging other clubs to talk to Bochy about managing. Bruce is one of the longest tenured managers in the game, second to Bobby Cox in years with one team. He's finished first four times, and two years in a row. I wonder who Alderson would want to bring in?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 AM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Little Brothers
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With Stephen Drew looking great at shortstop for the Diamondbacks, Arizona converted Justin Upton to a centerfielder:

Drafted as a shortstop, Upton underwent a crash course in center field and said he began to feel more comfortable at the position as the season wore on. Howell says one of Upton's main focuses this fall has been his routes on fly balls.

Upton knows he wore down during the season. He said he came in weighing 218 pounds and ended the season at 205.

"I'll be the first one to admit that around mid-August I got real tired," he said. "I just couldn't get the bat going. That's something you learn, like what kind of shape I have to come back in to play outfield. It's tough carrying that weight and having to run such long distances in the outfield."

If Upton develops as they expect, it looks like the Diamondbacks will be strong up the middle for a long time.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Albert Gets Testy
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Albert Pujols didn't appreciate reporters pointing out his performance last night, and tried to bring down Tom Glavine:

A peeved Pujols snapped at reporters following his 0-for-3 outing that included a costly baserunning blunder in the Mets' 2-0 Game 1 win, claiming that Glavine wasn't fooling any of the St. Louis hitters and that the NL Central champs should have lit up the lefty.

"He wasn't good. He wasn't good at all," Pujols said of Glavine, who threw seven innings of four-hit ball for the victory. "I think we hit the ball hard, we didn't get some breaks.

"I say he wasn't good at all. We just didn't get some opportunities and that's it. . . . (Glavine did the) same thing that he always does. Throw a changeup, fastball and that was it. I just think we should've done a better job than we did."

Pujols is basically right, but when you go 0 for 3 and make a base running blunder, you shouldn't be denigrating the opposing pitcher who shut out your team for seven innings. Albert always seemed classier than that to me.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Good Report on Zumaya
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Joel Zumaya's wrist isn't as bad as first reported:

The Tigers might have Joel Zumaya's heat even in the Midwest chill.

Detroit hopes the hard-throwing Zumaya will be ready for Game 3 of the American League Championship Series despite a tender wrist.

The rookie reliever injured his right wrist warming up before Wednesday's Game 2 in Oakland and underwent a magnetic resonance imaging exam after the team arrived back in Detroit on Thursday, a day off for the teams heading into today's Game 3. The test revealed only inflammation.

That's good news for the Tigers and bad news for the Athletics.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Injuries | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Harden Weather
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Today is Rich Harden's kind of day:

It snowed Thursday in Detroit, and major league officials are so concerned about the weather that they moved the starting time up to 1:30 Pacific time rather than the original start time of 5:19 p.m. Forecasts call for temperatures in the upper 30s with possible snow flurries. "Hopefully, it will slow their arms down," A's designated hitter Frank Thomas said.

The piping hot Detroit pitchers nailed down a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series, with the cold A's bats going 3-for-21 with runners in scoring position.

Rich Harden, who hasn't pitched more than five innings in a major league start since April 21, will start for the A's. Will his body be able to handle the frigid conditions?

"I'm from Canada. Come on," said Harden, a British Columbia native, breaking into a wide smile. "Maybe some of the guys from Texas like it in the 80s, but not me. I'm not too concerned about the weather."

Outfielder Jay Payton added: "It might be too warm for Rich. He might go out there in short sleeves."

Beyond the drop in temperature, 20 mph gusts are expected to take the wind-chill factor into the 20s. The forecasts are so dire that Game 3 could resemble an August night at Candlestick.

I was with the Baseball Tonight crew in 1997 for the Florida-Cleveland World Series. The temperature hit 90 in Miami, but when we arrived in Cleveland it snowed. We went from short sleeves to thermal underwear. Cold weather tends to dampen offense so we may see low scoring games in Detroit this weekend.

Update: Gary Peterson believes the Athletics are risking Harden's long term health by pitching him in this game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 12, 2006
Defensive Luck
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The Cardinals hit the ball hard at times tonight to no avail. They lined out to infielders four times, one of those turned into a double play. It seemed every play that was close on the Mets part went their way, from the Endy Chavez diving catch to the Valentin range play in the ninth. If the Cardinals can hit the ball hard that often in the next game, I suspect they'll score some runs.

Good job by the Mets defense. They made the most of the opportunities handed them, and New York moves out to a 1-0 lead in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals in the Ninth
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Pujols leads off against Wagner.

Update: Pujols hits a rocket that Delgado snares for the hit. It's the second time Pujols hit the ball hard but right at a fielder. Valentin follows with a nice play on Encarnacion, ranging to his right to make the play.

Rolen, however, draws a walk to bring the tying run to the plate in the person of Scott Spiezio.

Update: Scott pops out to second to end the game, and the Mets take it by a final score of 2-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Scoring Opportunity
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Paul Lo Duca singles for his second hit and Carlos Delgado doubles with one out. Wright gets the chance to drive them in as the Cardinals are pitching to him.

Update: Wright grounds out to a draw-in infield, and Chavez flies out to leave the runners on base. Billy Wagner will defend a two run lead in the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More on Chambliss
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Red Reporter doesn't like the way the Reds are turning Chris Chambliss into a scapegoat. Redleg Nation agrees.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mota in the Eighth
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Tom Glavine leaves after seven innings and Guillermo Mota takes over. He gets Miles to bounce back to the mound for the first out of the inning.

Update: John Rodriguez pinch hits and strikes out swinging.

Update: Eckstein draws a walk. If Wilson can get on, Pujols will get a chance to put the Cardinals ahead.

Update: Mota falls behind Wilson 3-0, but comes back to get him to pop up on a 3-2 count. Pujols will lead off the ninth. The Mets still lead 2-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Soriano Still in Play
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The Nationals are now denying the earlier story about Soriano. Hat tip 6-4-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 PM | Free Agents | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Getting Ready
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The Mets start the bullpen working in the top of the seventh with Mota warming up. Randolph is not making the Dusty Baker mistake of waiting until your pitcher is in trouble before getting the bullpen going.

Update: The pen isn't needed as Glavine retires the side in order. Tom's now pitched 13 shutout innings in the playoffs this post season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Other MVP
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Paul Lo Duca singles with two outs in the sixth to put a man on for Carlos Beltran.

Update: Carlos Beltran takes a 2-2 pitch over the fence in right-center to give the Mets a 2-0 lead. That's why you get Weaver out of the game after five.

Update: Carlos Delgado lines a double into the right center gap. He got all of a 3-1 pitch, and Weaver is blowing up on cue. Three straight hits with two out in the sixth. He's intentionally walking Wright to get to Chavez.

Update: That's it for Weaver. Left-hander Tyler Johnson comes on to face Chavez.

Update: Johnson does his job and gets Chavez to ground into a force play. But the Mets take a 2-0 lead, and Glavine's pitch count is just 79 through six innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Runner for Albert
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Preston Wilson picks up a one-out single in the sixth to put a base runner on for Albert Pujols.

Update: Albert hits the ball on the nose but lines out to short. The Mets don't get a double play this time.

Update: Encarnacion flies out to end the inning. The Cardinals are getting more men on base, but they aren't advancing them very far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Weaver's Redemption
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Jeff Weaver just completed his 10th shutout inning of the post season. I am not a big Weaver fan, but he's certainly making the Cardinals look very smart for taking a flyer on him after he failed with the Angles. La Russa didn't bring him out for the sixth against San Diego. We'll see if he does the same here. Jeff's only thrown 71 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 PM | Post Season | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Big Endy-an
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The insertion of Endy Chavez works defensively as he's able to make a diving catch of a fly to left-center hit by Belliard in the top of the fifth.

Update: The Cardinals get a hit and a walk in the inning, but fail to score again. I'm starting to think the first team that sends a ball over the outfield wall wins this game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Turnaround Fair Play
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In the second inning, Weaver fell behind Delgado 3-0 but induced a 3-2 ground out. With two out in the fourth, Jeff gets ahead of Carlos 0-2, but walks him. Chavez pops out, however, for the third out. Still no score. Glavine's thrown 42 pitches, Weaver 62. Each has walked a batter and struck out one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Insurance Exclusion
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If Corey Lidle was indeed piloting the plane, his beneficiary won't be able to collect on his insurance policy:

The plan calls for a $450,000 life insurance benefit and has an accidental death benefit of $1.05 million. However, the plan - which applies to all big leaguers - contains an exclusion for "any incident related to travel in an aircraft ... while acting in any capacity other than as a passenger."

His wife will get the widow's benefit:

Lidle had 9 years, 100 days of major league service - 72 days shy of being fully vested. Because of that, his wife would be entitled to about $165,000 to $170,000 annually, which is 95 percent of the maximum, an amount indexed for inflation. There is an additional dependent benefit.
Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 PM | Deaths | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
A Step Too Far
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Albert Pujols reaches on a one-out walk, but walks too far off first on an Encarnacion fly to shallow center. Carlos Beltran rushes in, makes the catch, then throws behind Albert to complete the double play. Aggressive base running leads to two double plays against St. Louis.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Fairly Easy Being Green
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Shawn Green leads off the bottom of the third with the first hit for the New York Mets, a single.

Update: Glavine gives up a single to the opposing pitcher, then bunts poorly and Green is thrown out at second base for the second out in the inning.

Update: Reyes grounds into a force to end the inning. He took the first two pitches for strikes, even through they looked outside. Luis Gonzalez commented that since Weaver was around the plate all night, he's getting the benefit of the doubt. But Reyes also has a reputation for swinging at anything, and that might also be working against him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
First Hit
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Yadier Molina singles to break the run of outs. Tom Glavine leaves a pitch up in the strike zone and Jeff Weaver lines it the other way for a single to put men on first and second with one out.

Update: Weaver picked up four hits during the regular season. Eckstein lines to third with the runners moving, and the Mets get an easy double play. Still no score going to the bottom of the third.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Foul Floyd
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Cliff Floyd hits a foul fly ball down the left field line. Preston Wilson has the ball tick off his glove, but Floyd was running on the hit and rounded first. He looked like he pulled up lame, but stayed in the game and flied out to left to end the inning. Cliff is going to be a real liability on the bases if he gets on.

No offense through two innings. Twelve men came up and twelve men went down. Glavine is being more efficient than Weaver, Tom throwing 21 pitches to Weaver's 33.

Update: Floyd doesn't stay in the game long. Endy Chavez takes over in left to start the third inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Weaver Matches Glavine
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Jeff Weaver retires the Mets in order in the first, like Glavine, striking out one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
A Pilot Reflects
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James Fallows flew the same model of plane as Corey Lidle. He reflects on the dangers faced by inexperienced pilots.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | Deaths | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
NLCS Underway
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David Eckstein flys out to the injured Cliff Floyd in left to start the game. Preston Wilson grounds out to third on the first pitch. That brings Pujols to the plate with the bases empty.

Update: Glavine gets Pujols to take a bad swing at a breaking ball, striking out to end the inning. Tom throws just nine pitches, seven for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hammer Time, Game 2
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As expected, the Cardinals named Chris Carpenter the starting pitcher for game two of the NLCS:

Before Wednesday night's game was postponed, La Russa said a rainout probably wouldn't alter his rotation and he would likely stick with Carpenter in Game 3. But the manager changed his mind after a night's thought.

"It's his fifth day. That's when he's geared to pitch all year long," La Russa said Thursday.

Jeff Suppan was pushed back to Game 3, which is scheduled for Saturday in St. Louis. Rookie right-hander Anthony Reyes will start Game 4.

Suppan pitches better in St. Louis, so this gives the Cardinals a better chance of taking two of the first three games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:39 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Keep Hope Alive
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Blez at Athletics Nation explains why he's still optimistic about the Oakland A's winning the LCS:

Another reason to be optimistic is that for all the talk of the live arms of the Detroit staff, some of the A's hitters, namely Bradley and Kotsay, haven't appeared intimidated at all. 100 mph? No problem, I'll just use your power to whack double into the corner. 103? Pffffft, that's going yard, dude. The A's have also shown an ability to work the Tigers starting pitchers. And they've also come perilously close to scoring a lot of runs off of Jones.

Which brings me to my next reason...Frank Thomas will not remain silent forever. To me, you can point to a couple of determining factors in last night's game. Thomas' o-fer and Loaiza's struggles. The A's are down 0-2 and haven't had a quality start from their starting pitcher yet. Yes, a lot of that has to do with the Tigers and that freaking woodpecker Polanco, but the old cliche is true that great starting pitching beats good hitting. If Harden can be King Richard on Friday, then suddenly this can turn around very quickly. Don't get me wrong, the A's absolutely need Frank Thomas to awaken from his slumber. It would also be nice to have a Swisher sighting. But the A's very nearly beat the Tigers best starting pitcher (arguably) without any contributions from Swisher and Thomas. That bodes well for the rest of the series in my opinion.

The Athletics have a little more time to adjust in a seven game series than the Yankees did in a five game series. Still, these are two evenly matched teams. The odds of the Tigers winning two more games are about 80%.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:05 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Low Bid
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Alfonso Soriano turned down an offer of $70 million dollars for five years.

Alfonso Soriano has rejected a $70 million, five-year contract offer from the Washington Nationals, diminishing any chance the perennial All-Star will stay with the club.

"It's almost impossible this great player will stay on our payroll," Nationals special assistant Jose Rijo told the newspaper Listin Diario in Thursday editions.

If that's the opening bid, Soriano is going to do very well. I believe that's the same deal Vlad Guerrero signed when he joined the Angels. Vlad's posted eight seasons of 20 wins shares or more, Soriano three. Given his age, it's not likely he's going to repeat his career year. If I were a GM, $70 million for five years would be my best offer.

Update: The Nationals are denying the story.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:31 PM | Free Agents | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The Value of A-Rod
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WasWatching wonders how many wins Alex Rodriguez added to the Yankees this season.

Therefore, according to this study, having Alex Rodriguez play 3B in New York last year helped the Yankees get 8 wins. This margin, in 2006, is the difference between winning the A.L. East by ten games versus winning the A.L. East by two games.

I think he's being a bit generous here. The Win Shares page of The Hardball Times gives Alex 12 win shares over bench. With three win shares per win, that's four wins. That makes a lot more sense. The best players in a season might add five or six wins over a bench player. Still, four wins would decide a lot of divisions, and this was a bad year by A-Rod's standards. So the WasWatching question:

It's an interesting question - for Yankees fans: What would you prefer, winning the division by 10 games, coupled with the A-Rod "stuff," or, winning the division, barely, without A-Rod?

Is still legitimate.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:20 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Friday Schedule
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MLB changed the start time of the Athletics-Tigers game on Friday to 4:30 PM EDT. The Cardinals and Mets will play game two at 8:00 PM.

Major League Baseball said Thursday that concerns about the weather Friday night in Detroit prompted the switch from the original start time of 8:19 p.m. The Tigers took a 2-0 lead in the best-of-7 series Wednesday night, winning in Oakland 8-5.

Friday was to have been an off day in the NLCS, but Game 1 in New York was rained out Wednesday. The Mets-Cardinals series was to begin Thursday night.

That and Fox wants the Mets in prime time to get the bigger audience. I'm not complaining, since I now get to watch both games, but I'm sure a few Tigers fans, who were planning for the night game now need to re-arrange their schedules. Then again, having the Tigers in the playoffs is probably more than worth it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:47 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Zumaya Hurt
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I'm blogging from my phone so I can't link. but ESPN has a story that Zumaya is suffering from the same wrist injury as last month.

Update: Here's the link.

Zumaya saw a doctor both Wednesday and Thursday, but the Tigers aren't sure when he'll be able to pitch again.

In September, Zumaya was diagnosed with tendinitis in his right wrist and received a cortisone shot.

Zumaya's allowed one hit in three innings while striking out three. With him out of action, a selective Oakland team can drive Detroit's pitcher's out of the game early and give Leyland less flexibility in the pen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:47 PM | Injuries | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Remembering Lidle
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ArmChairGM set up a memorial page for Corey Lidle. Feel free to share your thoughts, pictures, etc. on the late pitcher there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:22 PM | Deaths | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The NLCS kicks off this evening in New York. Jeff Weaver gets the game one start for the Cardinals against Tom Glavine of the Mets. I wonder how many pitchers released during the season got to make a Game 1 start in the post season? Jeff faces a tough lineup tonight. Unlike the Padres, the Mets boast one of the best offenses in the National League. Weaver and left-handed batters did not mix well, and the Mets, with either Floyd or Chavez in the outfield, will likely put six lefties in the lineup. And the Mets hitters were overall very good against right-handed pitchers.

Glavine's LDS start was more impressive. He also threw shutout ball, but for one more inning and against a superior offense. Lefties also gave the Cardinals problems this year, as their slugging percentage dropped 40 points with southpaws on the mound. So this pitching matchup would appear to favor the Mets.

This series also offers a chance to compare two MVP candidates, Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran. The Mets contained Pujols a bit. In five games against New York he was held to five hits and one walk for a .286 OBA. But he managed to hit two homers in 20 at bats as he drove in nine runs. Beltran had simlar success vs. the Cardinals; few hits, but two were home runs in 21 at bats. Pujols is one of the top visiting sluggers at Shea this decade.

Enjoy!

Purchase ALCS tickets.

Purchase NLCS tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mets Still Learning
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Drexel University and the New York Mets teamed up to make earning a college degree easier for their players:

Enter Richard Astro, the Drexel University English professor who proposed the online option as a way for players to continue an education even as they pursue their lives in baseball. With their tight schedules, players' ability to structure their own virtual classroom time was essential, Astro perceived. Murray, married and the father of a young daughter, couldn't agree more. "This is a blessing," he says from his off-season home in Prairie Village, Kan. "It's going to benefit me and my family for the future, and that's a huge, huge deal."

So far, more than 20 players have taken courses or are signed up to begin soon. About a dozen will get degrees from Drexel; others will apply the credits to schools where they've already done coursework.

Another great use of the internet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:54 AM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Silver Lining?
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It didn't take long for people to try to make money off Corey Lidle's death.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:07 AM | Deaths | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Carpenter in Game 2?
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The Cardinals are thinking about using Chris Carpenter in game 2, which would put him on his normal rest:

"That is his fifth day. You've got to seriously think about what that means. It's up for grabs in my opinion," St. Louis manager Tony La Russa said. "My first 30-45 minutes of looking at it, I said I'd probably stay with it. Sitting here for 15, there's more there. There's a decision to make, no doubt about it."

The other thing using Carpenter in game 2 does is push Suppan back to game 3 at home. He's been more successful in St. Louis than on the road this season. Both teams went with just four starters on the LCS roster, which means starters for game five will be going on short rest. Right now, that looks like Glavine and Weaver. Given that they are veterans, they should be able to handle it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:00 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
New Code
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The Marlins are once again allowed to grow facial hair. FishStripes wonders if they're old enough.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Macha on Luck
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Ken Macha reacts to the ball that hit off Chavez's glove and the close play on the ensuing sacrifice fly:

"It's a game of inches," Macha said, "and the inches were on their side."

And the Inges, too. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hayes on Lidle
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Marcus Hayes covered Corey Lidle in Philadelphia. It's probably the most balanced piece on Lidle I've seen so far:

Upon his trade, Lidle indicted his former teammates for not playing hard all the time, an indictment he recanted a day later.

Nevertheless, one of them, reliever Arthur Rhodes, retorted that Lidle was a "scab" for playing in a spring-training replacement game in 1995. He also criticized Lidle for spending too much time in the clubhouse during games. Rhodes let it be known he had reprimanded Lidle one day as Lidle dawdled in his locker as a game got under way.

Lidle told the Daily News: "You know what I was doing that day? I was buying my plane."

So, for Lidle, on that day, the first inning could wait. That's how much Lidle loved his newfound hobby, one whose germination found a foothold a little more than a year ago when Lidle met a pilot buddy of a former teammate.

Flying consumed him in the offseason, and when spring training hit full swing, Lidle had his pilot's license.

He offered to take several reporters, including me, for a ride. I declined: scared of heights, unnerved by small aircraft, prone to motion sickness. One print reporter accepted Lidle's offer and wrote a story about it during spring training. By the end of spring training, flying defined Lidle.

It also mentions that Lidle's family was flying home to California at the time of the crash on a commercial airline, hence the delay in contacting them and confirming his death.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:22 AM | Deaths | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
No Mayday
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The latest reports on Corey Lidle's plane crash backs off an earlier report that the plane sent a distress call.

Federal investigators are backing away from an earlier report of a distress call from Cory Lidle's plane.

They now said the FAA has found no indication of a mayday call during the 15 minutes the plane was airborne before it crashed into a 40-story high-rise condo on Manhattan's upper east side -- at 72nd Street and York Ave.

...

Investigators said it's too early to determine what caused the crash. But a witness said the plane appeared to be trailing smoke and was flying erratically.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 AM | Deaths | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 11, 2006
Athletics in the Ninth
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Scutaro leads off against Todd Jones.

Update: Scutaro is caught looking on a superb breaking ball. Melhuse pinch hits.

Update: Melhuse strikes out swinging. It's up to Kendall.

Update: Kendall keeps hope alive with a single to right.

Update: Jones falls behind Kotsay 3-0, works the count back to 3-2, then Kotsay singles to left center. That brings the tying run to the plate in the person of Milton Bradley. Men on 1st and 2nd.

Update: Bradley hits a soft liner over the head of Jones, and it rolls for an infield hit. The Big Hurt is up with the bases loaded.

Update: Thomas flies out to center to end the game.

Pitching was not on display tonight. Both teams picked up 11 hits and two walks. Oakland picked up one more home run, but the Tigers got the lucky hit, the Gomez grounder off Chavez's glove. If that ball is a couple of inches closer to third base, Chavez turns two and three runs don't score in that inning.

The Tigers did a better job of putting the ball in play. They only struck out seven times, while Oakland went down 13. The Tigers take a commanding 2-0 lead on the road; no LCS team has come back from losing the first two games at home, although it has happened in the World Series. In the words of the evil doctor Klahn, "Take them to Detroit!"

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Taking' It to the Street
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Street comes in to pitch the ninth to get some work, and Curtis Ganderson takes him deep to extend the Detroit lead to 8-5. The Tigers continue to pound the ball.

Update: That's all for the Tigers in the ninth. The A's have three outs to get three runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:09 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Nice Eighth
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Rodney pitches the eighth, throws 13 pitches, 9 for strikes and strikes out the side. Swisher was one of his victims and is now 0 for 6 in the series with a walk and five strikeouts. Putting a ball in play would be a victory for Nick at this point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:04 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Milton Molten
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Milton Bradley goes deep with two outs to cut the Tigers lead to 7-5 in the seventh. The A's are working back into this game one run at a time. It's Bradley's second home run of the game, and he's driven in four of the five runs.

Update: Bradley's two home runs came from both sides of the plate. Thomas strikes out for the third time to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:41 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Remembering Corey
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The AP rounds up reactions to Corey Lidle's death from his former teammates and coaches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 PM | Deaths | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)
Gomez Goes Deep
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Alexis Gomez, a journeyman outfielder, hits a two-run homer to put the Tigers up 7-3 in the top of the sixth. His ball earlier ticked off Chavez's glove to drive in two others. Gomez had one career home run in 158 at bats, which is why he was bouncing up and down between the minor and majors since 2002. He's an unlikely hero for game 2.

Update: Chavez gets one back in the bottom of the sixth with a leadoff home run of his own. That cuts the Tigers lead to 7-4.

Update: After getting an out in the sixth, Verlander is replaced by Ledezma. Verlander threw 106 pitches, struck out six and walked just one. Keeping walks low is a great way to keep the A's scoring low.

Update: Ledezma comes in and walks Swisher.

Update: Ledezma retires the next two batters to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Upside the Head
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Kendall hits a ground ball slowly to the left side with a runner on first. Inge fields it and throws high to first. Guillen jumps for the ball, spins and comes down with his foot on the base. But he's right in the path of Jason Kendall's elbow, which is up to try to avoid the collision. He get Guillen in the side of the head. It takes him a minute to recover, but Carlos stays in the game.

After a walk to Kotsay, the A's have runners at 1st and 2nd for Bradley.

Update: Bradley hits the ball solidly, but flies out to center. It's up to Thomas.

Update: Thomas hits the first pitch to third for a force out. The A's get two base runners and ring Guillen's bell, but can't pick up a run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tigers Threaten
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The Tigers respond to the two A's runs in the bottom of the third with two singles to start the fourth.

Update: Loaiza comes back and strikes out Guillen. Still runners at first and second.

Update: Ivan Rodriguez takes four pitches outside the strike zone to load the bases. He only drew 26 walks all season.

Update: Craig Monroe lines a clean single to center, scoring Polanco from third. The bases are still loaded, and the A's lead is down to 3-2.

Update: A bit of defensive bad luck costs the A's the lead. Gomez hit a slow roller in the hole. Chavez ranged to try to turn the double play, but he can only reach the edge of the ball and it ticks off his glove into the outfield. Two runs score, and then a third on a sacrifice fly and the Tigers take a 5-3 lead in the middle of the fourth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bradley Blast
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Milton Bradley is taking care of Oakland's problems with men in scoring position. He follows another Kotsay double with a blast to right field, a two-run homer to put the Athletics up 3-1 after three inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 PM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Swish Whiffs
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Nick Swisher strikes out in his first plate appearance tonight. Nick is now 0 for 4 with three strikeouts in this series. Verland struck out three through two innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Guillen Doubles
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Carlos Guillen starts the second inning with a double.

One thing I missed at the start of the game was Neifi Perez batting second. It's a good thing Leyland is a good motivator, because making out a lineup card doesn't look like his strong suit.

Update: Rodriguez grounds out but moves Guillen to third, then Monroe flies to Bradley in right to tie the game at one. Bradley made a nice play on a ball that was fading toward the line. That's all Detroit gets as they go to the bottom of the second tied at one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Double Trouble
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Kotsay hits a one-out double as Ordonez knocks the ball down to keep it from going to the wall, but overuns it otherwise. Kotsay goes to third on a wild pitch. Leyland brings the infield in, and Bradley hits a soft line drive over the second baseman. It's an easy catch if the infield is back. The Athletics get their first hit with runners in scoring position and lead 1-0.

Update: The Tigers are giving bases away tonight as Verland balks Bradley to second.

Update: Thomas strikes out swinging for the second out of the inning.

Update: Chavez gets good wood on the ball but flies out to deep left to end the inning. Oakland takes a 1-0 lead into the second.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Missed the Start
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I'm sorry, I missed the top of the first inning, but Loaiza struck out two and allowed just a single. Eleven of his 15 pitches went for strikes. I'll take that from my starter.

I was on the phone with a friend who used to live in the neighborhood of the plane crash. I wondered, in fact, if that had been the building. In fact, they lived a block away.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mets Game Postponed
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Weather canceled tonight's game between the Cardinals and the Mets.

Game 1 of the NL Championship Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets was postponed Wednesday night because of a steady rain.

The best-of-seven series will now begin Thursday night, and Game 2 at Shea Stadium is to be played Friday -- which was supposed to be an off day in the series.

The tickets for tonight's game will be good on Friday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:01 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 7 PM EDT, an hour earlier than usual. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:29 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Lidle's Plane?
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Jason Beck writes:

A news station in New York (but I heard a report on WBZ in Boston) that the plane that hit the NYC building was registered to Corey Lidle. This is far from verified, but that "news" would be worthy of your site.

I have not found anything on the internet. If any of you do, please send it my way.

Update: Ron Steinfeld writes:

Plane was registered to Cory Lidle - WCBS Channel 2 report.

The story is on the front page of CBS News. Fox News is now reporting Lidle piloted the plane and is dead.

Update: Here's the ESPN story. This is the second Yankees player to die in a plane crash. Thurman Munson died in 1979 trying to learn to fly a jet.

Update: I just heard Lidle just got his pilots license.

Update: Okay, now I'm hearing he had his pilots license for seven months and had 200 hours of flight time.

Update: I'm surprised some people think this suicide. There is a passenger reported on the plane, and suicides don't usually take someone with them. Also, these little planes, in the hands on inexperienced pilots in bad weather are very dangerous.

Update: This really takes me back. I remember in the summer of 1979 eating dinner with my family. The news was on in the next room and we suddenly heard that Thruman Munson died in a plane crash. My dad and I rushed into the living room to watch the TV reports. I also remember visiting friends during Christmas vacation and hearing about Clemente's plane crash. Both were shocking.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends, and to all those who are suffering due to this crash.

Update: Jason McAdams sends this link:

The Phillies weren't enamored of pitcher Cory Lidle's hobby of flying a four-seat airplane.

But now that Lidle is with the Yankees, it's an especially sensitive topic.

In 1979, Yankees catcher Thurman Munson died when a plane he was piloting crashed near his home in Canton, Ohio. Lidle earned his pilot's license last offseason, and has insisted his plane is safe.

"The whole plane has a parachute on it," he told The New York Times. "Ninety-nine percent of pilots that go up never have engine failure, and the 1 percent that do usually land.

"But, if you're up in the air and something goes wrong, you pull that parachute, and the whole plane goes down slowly."

Update: Bloomberg is holding a news conference and won't confirm Lidle died because they haven't contacted next of kin.


Update: Janak Parekh sends more on the above piloting story from the New York Times. It sounds like he was a good student:

"He was probably my best student," Stanger said in a telephone interview. "He learned very, very quickly, and a lot of it is desire. He had huge desire.

"Really, anyone can learn how to fly. If you can drive a bus, you can fly an airplane. But to learn quickly takes money and time. Of course, Cory had plenty of money, and it was the off-season, so he had the time."

Lidle, who is making $3.3 million this season, met with Stanger twice a week, for three or four hours at a time, all winter. He became queasy once, Stanger said, somewhere over New Mexico while returning from Texas. Otherwise, Lidle was a natural.

Part of Stanger's job is to surprise students by simulating emergencies. He will pull the throttle to the idle position, essentially letting the plane coast as if the engine were failing.

Other times, he said, he would instruct a student to wear blinders so only the instrument panel was visible, simulating bad weather. Then Stanger would tilt the plane nose-high or nose-low, making the student recover by trusting the instruments.

"Most people get kind of ruffled," Stanger said. "He was like, 'O.K., no big deal.' A lot of it is his mental state.

Update: Mayor Bloomberg says only two people, not four died, an instructor and a student. Fox is now reporting that the plane issued a distress call.

Update: NBC says it has confirmation that Lidle was on the plane:

A law enforcement official in Washington, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Lidle was on the plane. And Federal Aviation Administration records showed the single-engine plane was registered to the athlete, who just days ago -- after the Yankees' humiliating elimination from the playoffs -- told reporters that he was getting his pilot's license.

Update: Ballbug is aggregating news stories on this.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:46 PM | Deaths • | Pitchers | Comments (26) | TrackBack (1)
No Marquis Matchup
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Jason Marquis sits out the NLCS while Anthony Reyes gets the fourth pitching slot as the Cardinals announce their roster. I was really looking forward to the Marquis-Perez game as a night of offense.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:49 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Chambliss Gone
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Redleg Nation notes that the Reds fired hitting coach Chris Chambliss:

Do you suppose that having 1/4 of his starting offense traded away for middle relief had anything to do with the offensive decline?

Indeed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:39 PM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Looking for the Game?
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If you subscribe to DirecTV, they are carrying both games tonight on FX. Channel 248 will show Detroit-Oakland,while channel 246 (FX2) will show Cardinals-Mets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:38 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The NLCS kicks off this evening in New York, weather permitting. Jeff Weaver gets the game one start for the Cardinals against Tom Glavine of the Mets. I wonder how many pitchers released during the season got to make a Game 1 start in the post season? Jeff faces a tough lineup tonight. Unlike the Padres, the Mets boast one of the best offenses in the National League. Weaver and left-handed batters did not mix well, and the Mets, with either Floyd or Chavez in the outfield, will likely put six lefties in the lineup. And the Mets hitters were overall very good against right-handed pitchers.

Glavine's LDS start was more impressive. He also threw shutout ball, but for one more inning and against a superior offense. Lefties also gave the Cardinals problems this year, as their slugging percentage dropped 40 points with southpaws on the mound. So this pitching matchup would appear to favor the Mets.

This series also offers a chance to compare two MVP candidates, Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran. The Mets contained Pujols a bit. In five games against New York he was held to five hits and one walk for a .286 OBA. But he managed to hit two homers in 20 at bats as he drove in nine runs. Beltran had simlar success vs. the Cardinals; few hits, but two were home runs in 21 at bats.

At the same time, the Tigers and Athletics play game two of the ALCS. It will be a battle of right-handers tonight as Verlander faces Loaiza. For someone who throws hard, Justin doesn't strikeout many batters, just 6.0 per 9 innings. But he's consistent home and away. Lefties slug about 100 points better against him than righties, but unless Eric Chavez has his stroke back, Swisher is the only real power threat from the left side on the A's.

Loaiza gets a huge boost from the Coliseum, with his ERA over two runs lower at home than on the road. That's probably why he's starting games 2 and 6. The park neutralizes lefty power against him. (Here are lefty-righty splits for home and road.)

I also wonder how long the Tigers staff can survive putting men in scoring position. Regression to the mean tells us that the Athletics are not going to continue to hit .000 with men in scoring position. I really wonder how wise it is to have Thomas and Swisher separated in the batting order. It seems those two back-to-back would give the Athletics a better chance of picking up the table setters, while also setting the table for the hitters that come later.

Enjoy!

Purchase ALCS tickets.

Purchase NLCS tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:10 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Floyd Active
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Cliff Floyd is on the Mets 25-man roster for the LCS. The complete roster is here. It looks like the Mets are carrying four starters and seven relievers. I haven't seen the Cardinals roster yet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:56 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at a special time, 7 PM EDT. That way, you can listen to the show and not miss any of the playoff action! Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 AM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Peer Review
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Ryan Howard picked up The Sporting News Player of the Year Award yesterday. It's voted on by players. Ortiz came in second, Pujols third. Clearly, MLB players dig the long ball. Congratulations to Ryan Howard on the award!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM | Awards | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Trade for A-Rod?
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Peter Schmuck proposes the Orioles trade for A-Rod.

The Orioles are continually criticized for being reactive instead of proactive, but this is an opportunity to change that perception and change the direction of the organization in one dynamic stroke. They need to offer the Yankees what the Yankees need most, a young pitcher who can become one of the cornerstones of the starting rotation that eventually will replace the broken-down bunch that was overmatched by the young guns from Detroit last week.

This is going to hurt, but the Orioles need to present the Yankees with a package that features either Erik Bedard or Daniel Cabrera and hope that the desire in the Yankees front office to move A-Rod is so strong - despite general manager Brian Cashman's comments yesterday to the contrary - that it would be willing to accept one top-flight young pitcher and the $16 million per year he'll get back in available payroll.

Orioles officials love to talk about their budding pitching talent, largely because there isn't much else worth talking about right now, but one of the reasons you stockpile young pitching is so that you have it to deal when the time comes to make a critical trade. The acquisition of the best all-around player in the game - even if he isn't the best all-around postseason player in the game - is reason enough to make a major player development sacrifice and hope that the real Hayden Penn will stand up next spring.

While $25 million may be too much to spend on A-Rod, his actual cost to a team, $16 million, isn't. It's nice to see someone in Baltimore realize that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Players | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Know the Low to Appreicate the Highs
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David Wright received some good advice last year:

During one of last season's lowest moments, as the Mets neared the end of a 2-8 early September road trip that knocked them out of the wild-card race, Willie Randolph put his arm around David Wright and had a private chat with his young third baseman as they walked back to the team's hotel in St. Louis.

"He told me that he wanted me to remember what it felt like playing kind of meaningless games in September," Wright recalled. "That stuck with us. It's a bad feeling finishing the season out and making plans to go home and not doing anything in October.

"It speaks for itself, but the difference between last year at that time and this year, to be able to come and hear the excitement, and how much fun it is to come to the ballpark every day, is pretty special."

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Facing Surgery
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Both Randy Johnson and Jason Giambi face surgery soon, Johnson's likely to be the more serious:

Randy Johnson almost certainly will have back surgery in the coming weeks to repair a herniated disk, and it's possible that he may not be ready to start spring training on time, GM Brian Cashman said yesterday. Still, the Big Unit is expected to be ready for Opening Day.

"The medical opinions seem to be that even if he does have the procedure, an October procedure should give him enough time to be ready for the season," Johnson's agent, Barry Meister, said.

I suspect replacing Johnson will be high on the Yankees to do list, given the uncertainty of his back.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:37 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
I'll have a Slurpee with the First Pitch
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Chicago White Sox games will start at 7:11 for the next three years. Guess why.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Perez to Start
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Jim Leyland gets a little criticism concerning Neifi Perez.

This is my problem with Perez. It isn't that he's bad to have as a 25th guy, it's that Jim Leyland uses him as a 10th guy. I know that we're not supposed to criticize Leyland, but the decision to carry Infante/Perez/Santiago was a poor one. With Casey's injury and Perez as the stop gap, the infield defense is measurably weaker at 2 positions and a hole has been added to the lineup. Even if you don't like Chris Shelton's stick (and he did look woeful that last week), the impact would have been limited to adding a hole to the lineup and keeping the infield defense intact had he been available.

Yes. Unlike Perez, Shelton has some offensive value.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 10, 2006
Bottom of the Ninth
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Todd Jones is coming in to close out a 5-1 Tigers lead in the bottom of the ninth. Swisher, Scutaro and Jimenez are due up.

Update: Todd Jones walks Swisher on four pitches.

Update: Scutaro pops out to second for the first out.

Update: Jimenez bats, and grounds out to second. I'm surprised there is no one to pinch hit for him. Runner at 2nd with two outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:33 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
A's in the Eighth
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Still trailing 5-0, Milton Bradley doubles off new pitcher Zumaya to start the eighth for the Athletics. Zito and Zumaya are the last two pitchers alphabetically in the majors.

Update: Thomas grounds out to short, but Bradley advances to third as he was running on the pitch.

Update: Payton grounds out off Zumaya's foot, but the Athletics score a run. The A's are now 0 for 12 with runners in scoring position, 8 for 16 otherwise.

Update: That's all Oakland gets. The Tigers are three outs away from a game one victory.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:18 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
What a Relief
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The Oakland bullpen is keeping the A's in the game. They've pitched 3 1/3 innings without allowing a run. It's up to the Athletics offense here in the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Detroit turns its fourth double play of the night, a nifty 3-6-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:56 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No Respect
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Rodney starts the sixth inning for the Tigers. He gets the first out but Payton doubles to put another runner in scoring position.

Update: The A's get a walk, but make two more outs and don't score again. Rodney takes up just where Robertson left off, getting into trouble but pitching fine to get out of it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
3/4 Inge
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Brandon Inge singles in the top of the sixth with one out to chase Gaudin. That give Inge the single, double and homer. Inge picked up two triples this season, but knocked out 16 in 2004 and 2005 combined.

Update: The Tigers get another infield single when no one covers first base on a grounder to Swisher, but the Tigers do not score. The Athletics have four innings to pick up five runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
A's in the Fifth
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Jimenez singles to start the fifth. The Athletics put the leadoff man on 4 times out of 5.

Update: Kendall reaches on a walk. He reached base all three times, twice by walks. Robertson is playing with fire. He keeps giving Oakland chances, and eventually they'll come through.

Update: Not that time. Kotsay grounds into a double play, putting at runner at third with two out.

Update: Bradley lines one into left, but Monroe makes a diving catch to end the inning. Once again, Robertson does not allow a hit with runners in scoring position. The A's are 0 for 8 in that situation, 6 for 8 otherwise.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Two on in the Fourth
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Thomas walks and Payton doubles to put men on 2nd and 3rd to start the bottom of the fourth for Oakland.

Update: Robertson strikes out Chavez for the first out in the inning. The A's are now 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position.

Update: Robertson strikes out Swisher for the second time. Oakland can't put the bat on the ball with a man on third and less than two outs.

Update: Wow. Robertson strikes out Scutaro to end the inning. This one is playing out according to script. Zito gives up runs at home, Robertson gets in trouble up pitches out of it on the road.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
I-Rod Launches
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Ivan Rodriguez leads off the fourth with an opposite field home run over the 388 mark in right-center. His blast puts the Tigers up 3-0.

Update: After a walk, a force out and an overthrow error on an attempted double play, Inge drives a ball off the left-center wall for an RBI double. That's four runs for the Tigers, and 1/2 a cycle for Inge. Once again, Zito is running into trouble in Oakland.

Update: With two out, Polanco singles up the middle to drive in Inge and make the score 5-0 Tigers.

Update: Casey singles to left-center to put runners on 1st and 3rd and chase Barry Zito from the game.

Update: Zito threw 92 pitches, only 49 for strikes. Chad Gaudin enters to try to stem the damage.

Update: Ordonez grounds out to end the inning. But the Athletics find themselves down 5-0 to a pitcher showing excellent control tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
A's in the Third
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The Athletics put the second batter on as Kendall walks. Kotsay follows with an infield single up the middle to put runners on first and second.

Correction: Sorry, I missed the first batter of the inning, who flied out. Kendall and Kotsay reached with one out, and Bradley grounds into a double play to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
An Inge from the Pole
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Barry Zito gets the first eight Tigers hitters, but Brandon Inge pulls one just inside the foul pole for a solo home run and a 1-0 Tigers lead. Home runs in Oakland was Zito's weak spot this season. Granderson follows with a double.

Update: Zito issues his first walk of the game to Polanco. That puts runners on 1st and 2nd for Sean Casey.

Update: Another walk for Zito. He's now thrown 63 pitches, 30 for balls.

Update: Chavez ranges to his left on a grounder by Ordonez. The ball goes in and out of his glove and Ordonez reaches with an RBI single. It's 2-0 Detroit.

Update: Guillen grounds into a fielder's choice to end the inning. Barry's up to 69 pitches through three innings. He probably won't go too deep in the game. Robertson is throwing strikes, as 22 of his 28 pitches ended up in the strike column.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Deja Vu Second
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Eric Chavez starts the second inning with a single.

Update: That's all the A's get as Swisher strikes out and Scutaro grounds into a double play.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 Again
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Barry Zito retires the side in order in the second, again on two grounders and a pop out. Still no score.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Kendall Sets the Table
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Jason Kendall gets the bat on the ball and singles to start the bottom of the first.

Update: With one out, Bradley singles to left to put runners on 1st and 2nd for the Big Hurt.

Update: Thomas flies out to deep center. I'm surprised Kotsay didn't tag up on that one.

Update: Robertson gets Payton to end the inning. He's been great with runners in scoring position this year, allowing a .199 batting average. The A's are 0 for 2 so far tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
ALCS Underway
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Barry Zito retires Granderson on a pop up to start the 2006 ALCS.

Update: Zito get two ground outs to finish the inning. No score with the Athletics coming to bat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:21 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Here Comes the Gyroball
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Daisuke Matsuzaka's services are up for bids:

Highly regarded pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka was given permission by the Seibu Lions on Tuesday to pursue a career in the major leagues.

Matsuzaka, who has drawn interest from several major league teams including the New York Yankees, finished the 2006 regular season with a career-high 17 wins against five losses.

The 26-year-old right-hander posted a 2.13 earned-run average and 200 strikeouts.

He was the subject of the gyroball article from a few months ago. You can find his 2006 stat line here, just search for his name. He pitched 186 1/3 innings, striking out 200, walking 34 and allowing 13 home runs. He completed 13 games, including two shutouts. I can see why he'll be sought after.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:48 PM | Pitchers | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Perez in Game Four
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Oliver Perez gets the nod to start game 4 for the Mets. He's facing Jason Marquis. It will either be a double no-hitter or 15 runs will score in the first two innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:44 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Twenty-Five Homers Less
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Balls, Sticks and Stuff looks at the number of home runs reduced by the new dimensions at Citizens Bank Park.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:32 PM | Stadiums | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Hunter Snagged
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The MInnesota Twins keep Torii Hunter for another year:

The Twins said Tuesday they picked up Hunter's $12 million option.

Hunter, 31, a five-time Gold Glove winner in center field, was a big part of the Twins' AL Central title. After coming back from a stress fracture in his left foot in midsummer, Hunter wound up hitting 31 homers and driving in 98 runs.

Hunter's never posted an OBA over .340 in his career. His production peaked in 2001 and 2002, and he was falling until this season. In 2006, he bounced back to near his peak levels. Maybe the one-year deal is the right way to go here, as it keeps Hunter playing for a contract.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:41 PM | Transactions | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Early History
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NBX posts an interview with Bill Cleary, great grand newphew of one of the founders of the Yankees about that team's shady beginnings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:29 PM | Interviews | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Valuing Assets
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At ArmChairGM, Marcvsxiv applies a type of asset analysis to predicting the playoffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:39 PM | Predictions | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The ALCS gets underway tonight as two left-handers with nearly identical ERAs take the mound for the Detroit Tigers and the Oakland Athletics. Nate Robertson faces Barry Zito in Oakland, Nate with a 3.84 ERA, Zito a 3.83 mark. The two are very similar in hits allowed and home runs allowed. Robertson gave up two more long balls in 13 fewer innings. Zito is more likely to walk a batter. Nate walked batters at a rate of 2.9 per 9, Zito 4.0. Barry was just a bit more likely to strike out batters as well, 6.1 per 9 to 5.9 per 9 for Robertson.

A big difference that's applies directly to this game is their home/road breakdown. Zito finished the season 10-3 on the road but only 6-7 at home. His ERA showed close to a 2 run difference; 4.71 in Oakland, 2.97 away. Home runs especially were worse at the Coliseum, where 18 of his 27 dingers flew out of the park.

Robertson did better by about 0.7 runs away from Detroit. It's not exactly clear why, however. His walk, homers, and strikeouts were all about the same. It comes down to a bit of situational luck. On the road, he allowed a .149 batting average with runners in scoring position. At home, it was .237. My gut is Robertson is fairly neutral home/road, which gives the Tigers the edge as Zito was clearly at a disadvantage in his ballpark this season.

Oakland batters hit very well against left-handed pitchers this season. Their OBA went up 20 points and their slugging percentage rose 30 points. Detroit, on the other hand, suffered vs. lefties, seeing a six-point drop in OBA and a ten point drop in slugging percentage. So batting vs. lefties gives the edge to Oakland. That's borne out by Detroit's averages against Zito this season .143 BA, .333 OBA, .190 slugging percentage. The A's did much better against Robertson, at least in terms of power with .226/.281/.415 numbers.

Enjoy!

Purchase ALCS tickets.

Purchase NLCS tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:57 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Torre Stays On
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The Big Lead has the story. Here's more at FoxSports.com:

Torre spoke with Steinbrenner on the telephone Tuesday, shortly before he walked into the interview room at Yankee Stadium and made the announcement. "He gave me his support," Torre said. "I'm just pleased I'm able to stay on and do this."

The two also spoke on Monday.

"I talked to George yesterday for probably 15, 20 minutes, and we discussed a lot of things: the team, what we do from here and things like that," Torre said.

During the season I thought this was one of Torre's better jobs. He kept an injured team together until Cashman could find the replacement parts. He didn't deserve to be fired for bad luck in the ALDS. Maybe there are other reasons he should go, but I'm glad that others in the Yankees organization were able to cool off Steinbrenner's emotional reaction.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:37 PM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Torre to Stay
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Ben Kabak links to a New York Post story that Torre will stay. From the article:

By the time Torre meets with the press at 1 p.m. today at Yankee Stadium he will have been assured he will be coming back for his 12th season as Yankees manager.

While Steinbrenner left Manhattan for Tampa yesterday afternoon, general partner Steve Swindal, Steinbrenner's son-in-law, is in New York today. It's believed Swindal and Torre, who have a solid relationship after negotiating Torre's latest contract, will meet in the morning.

"It looks good for Joe,'' a source said.

It must be tough to own a story and get it wrong.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 AM | Management | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Daily News Wants Torre Fired
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I'm looking at my RSS feed and the New York Daily New is all Torre, all the time. They list eight different headlines on the Torre specualtion.

Talk about owning a story.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:16 AM | News Media | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Time to Buy Yankees Junk!
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If you want a Yankees jersey, the time to buy is now:

At Home Play Sports, a block from Yankee Stadium, Yankee jerseys that sold for $125 last week were $74.99 yesterday.

"It's not really a discount," said salesman Mohamed Saleh, 27. "It's a sellout."

What a deal. They're selling shirts for three times wholesale instead of five times wholesale.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Mechandising | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Why Rogers in Game 3?
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Jim Leyland answers the question, why not start Rogers in games 2 and 6?

So why not start Rogers in Game 2?

'That's a great question,' Leyland said. 'I'll tell you why we did what we did. We felt like we considered that very strongly.

'But at the same time we felt like the effort against the Yankees was such a draining effort that we decided to give him the time, a little bit of extra time.'

That makes sense. Sort of. Rogers, after all, is 41 and in his 18th major-league season. But the A's have to love today's Game 1 pitching matchup of their ace, Zito, against the Tigers' No. 4 pitcher.

I wonder what Leyland is going to use to motivate the Tigers this time. He got the David vs. Goliath working in the first round, but no one, especially the Athletics, are dissing the Tigers now. Sometimes motivation is a one shot deal, like shaving down in swimming, or green jerseys for Notre Dame football players. Leyland got the players going early in the season by pointing out they didn't have the killer instinct.
That got them off to a very good start, but it faded. He got them back to that against the Yankees and we'll how far it carries into the post season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Brave New Interviews
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Martin Gandy is in the process of publishing several interviews with current Atlanta Braves players. His first, with Marcus Giles, is here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:02 AM | Interviews | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 09, 2006
Rotation, Rotation, Rotation
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The Detroit Tigers Weblog has the Tigers rotation for the LCS:

The Tigers are sticking with what worked in the ALDS in terms of their rotation. Nate Robertson will pitch game 1 and he'll be followed by Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Jeremy Bonderman. This will be ripe with second guessing.

Right. For me, the biggest thing is missing out on Rogers pitching two games in Oakland. However, it does put Kenny in Oakland for game 7 if it goes that far.

I agree with Bilfer here to a certain extent:

Despite all that, I don't think it will make that much of a difference. As I said prior to the Yankees series, the Tigers have 4 very good pitchers that are all pretty similar. That right there negates some of the impact of the ordering.

One job of a manager is to maximize the probability of the players and the team succeeding. Every little bit helps.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Zito in the Big Apple?
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Roch Kubatko notes the Yankees are on Zito's short list of teams he'd like to join:

Zito's friend, former Orioles outfielder Eric Byrnes, says the left-hander has three or four teams on his preferred list. The Yankees are one of them.

Barry would be one of the better pitching signings for the Yankees. He's left-handed, and his 2007 seasonal age is 29.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 PM | Free Agents • | Free Agents | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Interest in Girardi
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The Cubs appear to be the first to enter the Joe Girardi sweepstakes.

Known for his gritty play and catching skills, Girardi began his career with the Cubs in 1989 and spent his first four seasons with the team. He returned for three more years in 2000 and made the All-Star team that season. His teammates in that second stretch included current Cubs pitchers Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano.

General manager Jim Hendry, who was not available for comment, plans to interview two internal candidates this week: Triple-A manager Mike Quade and Double-A manager Pat Listach.

Listach is best know for beating out Kenny Lofton for Rookie of the Year, then having his career fizzle.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:26 PM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
NLCS Preview
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On the surface, the Mets are clearly a better team than the Cardinals. They are better at scoring, and better at preventing runs.

2006 (NL Ranks)CardinalsMets
Runs per Game 4.85 (6th) 5.15 (3rd)
ERA 4.54 (9th) 4.14 (3rd)

Even with injuries to Pedro Martinez and Cliff Floyd, the Mets still lead in stars 3-2. It's Pujols and Carpenter vs. Beltran, Delgado and Wright. Then when you get to the supporting cast, the Mets shine even more. Reyes, Glavine, Lo Duca, Wagner and Green can't be matched by Edmonds, Rolen Eckstein Wainwright and Suppan. Even Endy Chavez, likely to replace Floyd in left, had his best year getting on base. Willie Randolph got him to change his approach in a way that Frank Robinson couldn't.

You can see the superior Mets offense in their power:

2006 (NL Ranks)CardinalsMets
Batting Average .269 (4th) .264 (8th)
OBA .337 (5th) .334 (8th)
Slugging Percentage .431 (8th) .445 (3rd)

Notice that even though the Cardinals ranks in BA and OBA are higher, there isn't that much difference between the two teams in getting on base. The Mets simply do a better job of moving those runners with long hits. The Mets also own a huge advantage in the speed game, with a stolen base percentage over 80%, while the Cardinals running game cost them runs; they were below the 67% break even point. The Cardinals were very good at stopping the running game and the Mets respected that. Jose Reyes was successful in all four of his attempts vs. St. Louis; no other Mets player attempted a steal.

Now for the pitching:

2006 (NL Ranks)CardinalsMets
Batting Average Allowed .268 (9th) .253 (2nd)
OBA Allowed .337 (7th) .323 (3rd)
Slugging Percentage Allowed .443 (13th) .407 (2nd)

The Cardinals just aren't close. And with Chris Carpenter not starting until game three, the Mets could easily go up 2-0 in the series. Not that the back of the Mets rotation is that much better. Steve Trachsel and Oliver Perez are likely to get starts. If game four turns out to be Perez vs. Marquis, you might see real fireworks. But the Mets have the better bullpen. Randolph can afford to bring his relievers in early, they improve the team. So, with his offense, he can afford to let Trachsel or Perez allow 3 or 4 runs over five innings. The Mets offense is capable of scoring more than that, and the bullpen is capable of preventing any more runs from crossing the plate.

So I see about a 70% chance of the Mets winning this series. Of course, when Juan Encarnacion hits .500 and Jeff Weaver pitches two shutouts, I'll be wrong. But the Mets certainly own the talent advantage. We'll see if that's enough to hold off any luck that falls the Cardinals way.

Purchase NLCS tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:02 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Replacement Level
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The Oakland Athletics might use a player not on the 40-man roster to replace Mark Ellis:

Mark Kiger spent the last three weeks teaching baseball to a group of teenagers in Temecula, which allowed him to play catch every day and hit every few days, but never in his wildest dreams did he expect to get the phone call he received last Wednesday.

"What?" Kiger said was his reaction to Pamela Pitts, the A's director of baseball administration, after she told him to report to Arizona. "What?"

Kiger, who has never been on the A's 40-man roster and never even participated in major-league spring training, is one of two candidates to join the A's roster for the American League Championship Series, due to the injury to Mark Ellis.

"Every year you battle, but you don't think after three weeks you'll get the call in October," Kiger said. "I didn't know the situation here. I knew they were doing well, but I didn't know about the depth of the infield."

The A's don't care about offense here. They want someone who can catch whatever is hit to him to act as a defensive backup.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:56 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Duncan's Visit
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Derrick Goold gives credit to Dave Duncan's first inning visit for the win last night:

Said Carpenter, goggles propped above his eyes in the postgame celebration, ready for the next spray of champagne: "I just wasn't locating too well. I probably was trying to stay on the corners too much. I was not being as aggressive as I needed to be. I settled back down, and I was able to attack the strike zone and start getting outs."

Duncan believed Carpenter was affected by Sunday's pressure.

That's why he took a rare first-inning stroll to the mound. He didn't want to talk so much as to give Carpenter a moment to relax, to reload.

"Early there, knowing the significance of the game, I think Carp tried probably to do a little bit more than he needed to do," Duncan said.

Carpenter needed 35 pitches, 17 of which were balls, to squeeze three outs from the first inning. It took him 67 pitches to get the next 18 outs.

The Padres season turned right there. Even a single with the bases loaded would give them control of the game. As in most of the series, the Padres could not find that third hit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 AM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
ALCS Preview
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The ALCS looks to be a pitching dominated series, since the hurlers are the dominant members of both teams.

2006 (AL Ranks)TigersAthletics
Runs per Game 5.07 (5th) 4.76 (9th)
ERA 3.84 (1st) 4.21 (4th)

Based on the full year statistics, the Tigers are clearly the better team. They're about .3 runs better scoring, and .4 runs better pitching. If you look at the in-season record, Detroit did dominate Oakland. The Tigers outscored the A's 52-39, but only won the season series 5-4. There were two big blow out wins by the Tigers in there, 10-4 and 11-4. Otherwise, the teams were even.

It's interesting to note both of those games were started by Kenny Rogers in Oakland. Rogers enjoys great success in that stadium. Leyland hasn't announced his rotation for the ALCS, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Rogers scheduled for games 2 and 6 at the Coliseum. Given the relative success of the pitchers in the LDS, I'd go with Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman, Robertson as my rotation. The A's hit lefties better than righties, especially for power, so this rotation minimizes that. Robertson was the only pitcher who didn't shutdown the Yankees in ALDS, so why give him two starts in the ALCS?

The Athletics actually took a vote on who should be their game two starter.

Ten of Oakland's top decision makers held a closed-door meeting in the manager's office Sunday and cast their votes on who should start for the Athletics in Game 2 of the AL championship series -- Rich Harden or Esteban Loaiza.

The tally: Harden 5, Loaiza 5.

Loaiza won the tiebreaker based on his health, recent results and reliability. Harden has only pitched three times since missing more than three months with an elbow injury.

I wonder who cast ballots, and if there was a split between the sabermetricians and the scouts?

Let's take a look at the offenses in more depth:

2006 (AL Ranks)TigersAthletics
Batting Average .274 (9th) .260 (13th)
OBA .329 (12th) .340 (7th)
Slugging Percentage .449 (5th) .410 (14th)

The Detroit offense gets a big power boost away from Comerica, which is one reason they had the top road record in the majors this season. But the Coliseum doesn't boost power, so we may be looking at seven games of Detroit's offense closer to their poor showing at home. The other thing that's tough to gauge is the reality of Oakland numbers. Over the last two months of the season, they traded walks for hits, keeping their OBA the same but raising both their batting average and slugging averages about 20 points. Take two teams (or players) with the same OBA, the one with the higher batting average is going to be the more dangerous team. Hits move runners a lot farther than walks do.

Here's a more in depth look at the pitching:

2006 (AL Ranks)TigersAthletics
Batting Average Allowed .257 (2nd) .271 (8th)
OBA Allowed .321 (3rd) .338 (9th)
Slugging Percentage Allowed .405 (2nd) .422 (4th)

Detroit beats Oakland hands down here. They do a better job keeping hits low, and keeping power low. The two teams struck out the same number of batters, gave up about the same number of home runs, but the Tigers walked many fewer batters.

There are a lot of things in favor of the Tigers as you look at the numbers. The only place the Athletics have the edge is getting their batter on base. The Twins did a good job in the first two games of the LDS stopping the Athletics offense. I suspect an even better Detroit staff will do the same. It's then up to the Oakland staff to shut down the Detroit offense, and the configuration of the two ballparks should help in that regard by cutting down on the Tigers power. I'll pick Detroit, with about a 60% chance of winning the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 08, 2006
Three Outs to Go
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The Cardinals go down in order in the eighth. The Padres have three outs to stretch into four runs to stay alive.

Update: Wainwright is on to pitch to the bottom of the Padres order. He catches Cameron looking for the first out of the inning.

Update: Klesko pinch hits.

Update: Is it true you must have at least 10 letters in your last name to be the Cardinals closer?

Update: Klesko drives the ball over the head of Jim Edmonds for a one-out double.

Update: Barfield lines one hard into center to put runners at first and third. A hit with runners in scoring position, but they don't drive home a run. Greene pinch hits for the pitcher.

Update: A big curve ball catches Greene looking for out number two. The Padres season is up to Dave Roberts.

Update: Roberts grounds out to Pujols, and the Cardinals win the game 6-2 and the LDS 3-1. Congratulations to the Cardinals on the win. They shutdown the Padres hitters, allowing just two hits with runners in scoring position in 32 at bats during the series. If the Padres get just 8 hits in those situations they probably play game five tomorrow.

Once again, Pujols and Carpenter are the stars. Albert slugs .600 and Carpenter posts a 2.02 ERA, winning games 1 and 4. On to New York.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Padres in the Eighth
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Giles and Gonzalez single leading off the 8th to put runners on first and third. Can they get the third hit?

Update: That's it for Carpenter. La Russa goes to the bullpen. Tyler Johnson is on to get out of the jam.

Update: Bard strikes out swinging for the first out. Piazza pinch hits, and he'll bring on a right-handed reliever.

Update: Kinney gets Piazza to ground into a double play to end the threat. Three outs to go for the Cardinals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
1-2-3 Seventh
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Carpenter returns to the mound in the seventh and retires the Padres in order. Six outs to go.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Sixth
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Albert Pujols walks to start the bottom of the sixth. It's the first time the Cardinals put the leadoff batter on.

Update: Edmonds flies out, but Encarnacion goes the other way into the right field corner. The balls tails away from Giles, and by the time he runs it down, Pujols is far enough around to score. The Cardinals take a 3-2 lead and Williams is done.

Update: Meredith enters the game and hits Belliard. Runners at 1st and 3rd with one out for the Cardinals.

Update: Spiezio singles up the middle, and the Cardinals take a 4-2 lead.

Update: Molina singles to load the bases. Meredith picked a bad day to give up getting batters out. Carpenter grounds one softly on the infield. Branyan charges, but his throw pulls Bard off the plate. Then Eckstein squeezes, and suddenly it's 6-2 Cardinals.

Update: Wilson strikes out to end the inning, but the Cardinals bat around, scoring four runs. The Cardinals are nine outs a way from a trip to New York.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:57 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bard Starts the Sixth
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For the second inning in a row, the Padres get the leadoff batter on. Bard singles, and I don't think he'll be stealing.

Update: Once, more, that's all the Padres get. Pujols leads off the bottom of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Padres in the Fifth
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Dave Roberts singles to start the fifth inning. It's the first time in the game the lead off batter reached.

Dave immediately gets thrown out stealing.

Update: The announcers just quoted Bochy as saying that it's almost impossible to steal against Carpenter and Molina. So why was Roberts trying?

Update: The Padres get nothing else in the inning. Halfway through, the game is tied at two.

Update: The teams stopped trying to wear out the starters. Carpenter is at 79 pitches through five, while a couple of first pitch outs leaves Williams at 73. It's 2-2 going to the top of the sixth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Carpenter Settles Down
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Chris Carpenter gives up just one hit over the 2nd and 3rd innings to hold the Padres at two runs. He's throwing fewer pitches, and is now at 59 for the game.

Update: Williams also settled down. He's allowed two hits in innings 2 and 3, but no runs. His pitch count is at 62. My guess is we'll see the bullpens sooner than later.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom Same as Top
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The Cardinals start the bottom of the first the same way the Padres started the top, with an out followed by a single. Wilson is on first for Albert Pujols.

Update: Pujols grounds out to put Wilson at second. Edmonds is hit on a 3-2 count. Two out and two on for Encarnacion. If I'm the Padres, I have to be happy with Encarnacion in the fifth slot.

Update: Encarnacion walks on what looks like a very good pitch. The Cardinals load the bases.

Update: Belliard hits a short fly to center for a single. That drives in two to tie the game. Belliard, however, gets caught in a run down when the throw home is cut off. He's tagged out to end the inning. It's 2-2 at the end of one. Both pitcher throw over 30 pitches in the first inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Padres/Cardinals Underway
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Carpenter starts off the night on the right foot, striking out Dave Roberts looking.

Update: Giles gets San Diego their first hit early, singling up the middle with one out.

Update: Gonzalez hits a fly ball to shallow center that falls in front of Edmonds. The Padres put runners on first and second. Can they get that third hit in a row?

Update: Bard walks to load the bases.

Update: Branyan works the count to 3-2, then takes an inside pitch to drive in a run with a walk. The Padres lead 1-0. Branyan drew 34 walks in 241 at bats this season, a very good ratio.

Update: Cameron grounds the ball slowly to short. The Cardinals go for the double play but only get the runner from first. Mike picks up an RBI on an out and the Padres are up 2-0.

Update: Cameron swipes second uncontested, and Carpenter issues his third walk of the inning, giving Blum a free pass. Chris is now at 30 pitches, 16 for balls.

Update: Barfield grounds to shortstop for the third out. Once again, the Padres don't get a hit with runners in scoring position, but they manage to push two across anyway.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:17 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Torre Moves
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I was just on Yankees Fan Club Radio, and my suggestion for the Yankees is to hire Buck Showalter as bench coach. Allow Torre to continue managing the club house as well as he does, but hire the best Xs and Os manager out there to take the place of Zimmer. Let Buck be his workaholic self without needing to deal with the personality of the players. Joe and Buck each have strengths that complement the other's weakness and should make a great team.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:05 PM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
George's Statement
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Was Watching provides a link to George Steinbrenner's statement on the LDS loss.

Rest assured, we will go back to work immediately and try to right this sad failure and provide a championship for the Yankees, as is our goal every year."

It's good and it's bad. No mention of the great season the team put together. No accolades for overcoming so many big injuries to get to the playoffs. But that pure commitment to winning every year is right out in front. That's why they're always in the playoffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:53 PM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
At Least La Russa Didn't Bat Him Eighth
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Tony La Russa benches Scott Rolen for tonight's game:

Scott Rolen, hitting just .091 in the NL divisional series, was out of the starting lineup for Game 4 against San Diego on Sunday after complaining of shoulder fatigue.

Manager Tony La Russa went with Scott Spiezio at third base against Padres starter Woody Williams. Spiezio had batted just once in the postseason.

Rolen hit .296 with 22 homers and 95 RBIS in a strong comeback after missing most of 2005 because of a shoulder injury. But he seemed to be laboring down the stretch, hitting just .225 in the season's final month with three homers and 14 RBIs. Two of the homers and nine of the RBIs came in a two-game span against San Francisco Sept. 15-16.

After game 1, it looked like the big three were back to full strength. Rolen, however, could not keep up and now he's out of the lineup.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:47 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Padres and Cardinals are the only teams in doubt for the NLCS at this point. They'll play under the lights on Fox tonight. Woody Williams takes on former teammate Chris Carpenter. The defending Cy Young Award winner handled the Padres easily in game one, as he struck out seven and walked just one in 6 1/3 innings. But the Padres did get him out of the game in the seventh. If they can work him that hard again, they have a chance against the St. Louis bullpen.

Williams last two post-season starts leave a lot to be desired. He was roughed up by the Red Sox in 2004, allowing seven runs in 2 1/3 innings, and then by the Cardinals last year, giving up five runs in just 1 2/3 innings. Woody is coming off a fine September in which he won all four decisions and posted a 2.51 ERA. But a lot of that was based on a .192 BA allowed with runners in scoring position. The opposition had their opportunities to score.

So far in this series, the Padres had the opportunities, but the Cardinals delivered. San Deigo is 1 for 25 with runners in scoring position, but he Cardinals 6 for 17. The Padres batters have no one to blame but themselves.

Enjoy!

Purchase ALDS tickets.

Purchase NLDS tickets.

Purchase ALCS tickets.

Purchase NLCS tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Kendall's Coincidence
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All of Jason Kendall's former mangers are on the Detroit coaching staff:

Leyland was catcher Jason Kendall's first manager in baseball. Kendall will have all of his major-league managers -- including Tigers coaches Gene Lamont and Lloyd McClendon, and A's manager Ken Macha -- on the field for this series.
Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 AM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Giant Task
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Andrew Baggarly details the work Brian Sabean faces this off-season:

Sizing up the monumental task he faces this winter, Giants general manager Brian Sabean said he must make the club younger and healthier while acquiring players who can make long-term contributions.

He was describing all the tenets of a rebuilding process, though that term is verboten at 24 Willie Mays Plaza.

To dismantle an old roster, infuse young talent -- and simultaneously field a winning team? It's a non sequitur, even when you remove the leaden weight of Barry Bonds' $90 million contract. Yet that's the task Sabean faces.

The Marlins accomplished that in the winter of 2005/2006. But the Marlins had a much younger veteran base to trade; they owned talent that could help other teams now. How many players do the Giants control that anyone else really wants?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:02 AM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
A Little Bit Better
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Going into the Dodgers/Mets NLDS, the Mets and Dodgers looked evenly matched. The Mets were just a little better. That proved to be true in the series except in one aspect. The Mets out-hit the Dodgers .294 to .291. The out-slugged the Dodgers .412 to .400. But the place where the Mets killed Los Angeles was in getting on base. The Mets posted a .381 OBA to the Dodgers .339. That meant the hits and extra-base hits did more damage. The seven extra base runners the Mets accrued through walks and hit by pitches led to 8 more runs in the series. Over three games, that was huge.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:43 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Back to the Future?
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The Daily News picks up on Ken Rosenthal's speculation that Torre would be fired. They at least use anonymous sources:

After winning four World Series titles in his first five seasons but failing to win the Fall Classic over the past six, Torre is expected to be fired, sources said, and his replacement is expected to be former Yankee Lou Piniella.

Unless other team officials can talk The Boss out of it, or unless Torre, 66, agrees to resign in order to save face, sources said principal owner George Steinbrenner will replace the manager who was credited with returning the team to its fabled glory. Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman is expected to keep his job, as are most members of the front office. Torre may be offered another position within the organization.

Bill Madden spells out the reasons:

In deference to Torre's four World Series trophies, Steinbrenner obliged Torre when the manager told him in their Tampa summit last November that he had to butt out and stop the jibes. In a series of meetings with the fractured Yankee front office last fall, Steinbrenner extended unprecedented power to both Torre and GM Brian Cashman. Ordinarily when things go badly in Yankeeland, no one escapes Steinbrenner's blame. But other than the $17 million spent on Kyle Farnsworth, Cashman's acquisitions - Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle from the high-end shelf and Brian Bruney and Aaron Guiel from the bargain-basement counter - were important contributors toward winning the AL East.

Even though Steinbrenner lived up to his pledge of silence and support, it was "on Torre" this year.

Torre wanted no interference, no second-guessing or behind-the-scenes sniping from Steinbrenner or any of his minions, and that's what he got. Total support, but it came with a price - winning it all.

If this is going to remain a veteran team, Piniella could be the right man. If they decide to tear down the team and start again, Lou showed in Tampa that doesn't fit his style. The age and contract status of the team makes the latter difficult, however.

I have mixed feeling about Torre. I've never thought he was a good strategic manager. But he managed that clubhouse perfectly. If (and I still think it's a big if) Torre is fired and Piniella takes the helm, they'll be back to the Bronx Zoo. This will be very good for the press, as George, Lou and the players all snipe at each other, but I remember the Yankees in the 1980s. They were a good team that never won a World Series and only made the playoffs once. They had Mattingly, Henderson and Winfield and couldn't win a division with those three. Torre's Yankees are many times more successful.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 AM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
October 07, 2006
Wagner, Max
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Billy Wagner starts the bottom of the ninth, the Mets an inning away from hosting the NLCS.

Update: Martin strikes out to start the ninth.

Update: Betemit strikes out. One out to go.

Update: Loney singles to left, keeping hope alive. Ramon Martinez pinch hits.

Update: Martinez works the count to 3-2, then flies out to Green in foul territory. The Mets win the series in a sweep. They got one good start from Tom Glavine, and the offense and bullpen carried the team the rest of the way. The Mets return home and host either the Cardinals or the Padres on Wednesday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:47 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Two On, None In
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The Dodgers put two on in the eighth inning but fail to score. They're down to three outs to score four runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:38 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Luck of the Bat
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The Yankees were swinging at bad pitches today and popping them up or grounding out. The Mets swing at those same pitches and seem to bloop a hit to the outfield. Lo Duca connects on a ball near the ground in the top of the 8th to drive in Woodward with the 8th run of the game. New York leads Los Angeles 8-5, and the Dodgers are running out of outs.

Update: The Mets have men on 1st and 2nd with one out, and Saito enters the game.

Update: Saito gets Delgado to ground to Betemit at third, but Wilson throws the ball over the head of the second baseman. Another run scores and the Mets lead 9-5.

Update: Saito gets the last two outs of the inning. The Dodgers need to score four runs in two innings or they clean out their lockers for the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Manager Search
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There's some surprise that the Nationals are looking at two older managers to replace Frank Robinson:

Since the Washington Nationals formally parted ways with Manager Frank Robinson earlier this week, most familiar with the search for Robinson's replacement figured the club wanted a young manager to take over what will, in all likelihood, be a team that struggles through the 2007 season.

But yesterday, a source familiar with the search said the Nationals have interest in at least speaking with veteran managers Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella about the opening. Baker and Piniella join former Florida manager Joe Girardi and Atlanta hitting coach Terry Pendleton -- and, no doubt, others who have not been publicly identified -- as potential candidates.

The Nationals are holding the search process quiet, but I rather see Frank stay than either Dusty or Piniella come in.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Kent's Third Hit
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Jeff Kent becomes the third player with three hits in this game as he bounces a ball into the stands for a double. That puts runners at 2nd and 3rd, but Drew flies out to end the inning. The Mets lead 7-5 after six innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Green Party
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Shawn Green picked up his third hit and second double of the night leading off the top of the sixth inning.

Update: Valentin pops out. Michael Tucker pinch hits for the pitcher.

Update: Tucker draws a walk to bring up Reyes. Tucker posted a .378 OBA this season, well above his .339 career mark. He did it with walks, as he hit just .196.

Update: Broxton falls behind Reyes 2-0. Little comes out to speak with the pitcher, and Broxton evens the count at 2-2 before Jose lines a single to center to score Green and tie the game at five.

Update: Lo Duca reaches down and pokes one over the out-stretched glove of Furcal as he races into left to try to snare the hit. Tucker scores and the Mets are back on top 6-5.

Update: Beltran does the same thing, just dumping a hit into left. The Mets are now up 7-5. The Dodgers pitching staff is just failing in this game.

Update: Delgado strikes out for the second out of the inning.

Update: Wright strikes out to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Kent Konnects
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Marlon Anderson keeps getting hits. His two out single in the bottom of the fifth raises his series average to .364 and sets up a two-run homer by Jeff Kent into the leftfield seats. The Dodgers tie the game at four. Drew follows that with a single of his own. That's enough for Willie Randolph as he goes to the bullpen.

Update: Chad Bradford comes in to face Martin.

Update: Martin leans down, reaches out and gets the bat on the ball to dump a single into left to put men on 1st and 2nd. A lucky shot.

Update: Betemit walks to once again bring up Loney with the bases loaded. Randolph counters with Feliciano.

Update: Loney hit lefties pretty well in his 20 at bats against them, picking up seven hits.

Update: Loney walks to drive in the go-ahead run. It's his first walk against a lefty at the major league level.

Nomar pinch hits for the pitcher, getting his Kirk Gibson moment.

Update: Nomar grounds back to the box for the third out. But his injury allows Loney to be the hero so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lost in the Sky
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With men on first and second, Betemit hits a sky high fly that Carlos Beltran doesn't see. It drops between Beltran, Green and Valentin to load the bases for James Loney in the bottom of the fourth. There's just one out.

Update: Loney lines a double into the left-center gap, scoring two and cutting the Mets four run lead in half. Fifteen of his 29 regular season hits went for extra-bases.

Update: Darren Oliver comes in to relieve Trachsel.

Update: Ethier hits the ball right into Oliver's glove. Betemit is frozen off third and Oliver tosses to Wright for the double play. But the Dodgers get two and trail the Mets 4-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:28 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mets Up Four
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Cliff Floyd scores the fourth run of the game, but comes up lame as he approaches the plate. Floyd is out of the game and Chavez is playing left. Maddux has allowed seven hits and two walks through three innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Comebackers
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Nomar Garciaparra and Jim Thome take home Comeback Player of the Year Awards.

Garciaparra received 72,054 votes in fan balloting announced Saturday by the commissioner's office.

Thome, dealt to Chicago by Philadelphia last November following the emergence of Ryan Howard, batted .288 with 42 homers, 109 RBIs and 107 walks. He received 55,587 votes.

I saw comments today looking for Cashman's head because the Yankees didn't advance past the Tigers. But look at Ken Williams. He made a great trade, picking up Thome for Rowand. He gave up some defense for a big boost in offense. He did everything right and the White Sox didn't compete. He recognized Thome's potential, and it didn't pay off. It show you can do everything right and still lose.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:46 PM | Awards | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Reyes Thrown Out
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Reyes reaches on an error by Loney, but the Dodgers execute a perfect pitch out and Reyes is caught stealing at second. Reyes was a 79% base stealer during the regular season. The Mets don't score in the second, keeping the score 3-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mets-Dodgers Underway
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Maddux walks the second batter he faces after Reyes flies out on the first pitch of the game. Beltran singles by a diving Drew, but Lofton hits the cutoff man and Lo Duca is thrown out at third.

Update: Wright and Floyd single to drive in a run each. The Mets take an early 2-0 lead.

Update: Green follows up with the fifth single of the inning. The Mets are just putting the bat on the ball and the balls are falling in. It's 3-0 Mets.

Update: Valentin lines one hard down the line, but Loney spears it for the third out. The Mets dig the Dodgers an early hole.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:07 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tigers Win
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The Tigers take the Yankees 3 games to 1. What amazes me isn't that they won; anything can happen in a five game series. What's remarkable is how they thoroughly shut down the Yankees hitters. The hitters on New York are so balanced that they can take the pitches if you miss, and hit the pitches if you throw strikes. But Rogers and Bonderman put the ball in the strike zone with a lot of movement early in the plate appearances, and that forced the Yankees to chase pitches out of the strike zone. They figured out the weakness of the New York offense and exploited it perfectly.

The Yankees pitching didn't perform well. Mussina could not hold a lead. Johnson couldn't go deep in the game. Wright was just wrong today.

The Detroit offense, led by their best hitter, Carlos Guillen, never stopped. They hit for average, they hit for power, and they bunched them together. They ran aggressively on any hit to the outfield. I could see the Tigers winning three games 6-5, 8-6 due to the Yankees pitching, but I didn't expect two games to be so lopsided.

Congratulations to the Tigers on an impressive win. They'll travel to Oakland to face the Athletics on Tuesday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:27 PM | League Division Series | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Three Outs to Go
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The Tigers don't score in the eighth. They lead 8-1 as the Yankees come up in the ninth with Abreu, Sheffield and Matsui due up.

Update: Abreu singles to left. The Yankees need a lot more of those.

Update: Monroe makes a great diving catch on a high line drive by Sheffield that was tailing toward the leftfield line. That's it for Bonderman, leaving the game with two outs to go.

Update: Bonderman throws 99 pitches, 70 for strikes. Walker is on against Matsui.

Update: Matsui flies out to centerfield. It's up to Posada.

Update: Jorge hits it over the left-center wall for a two-run homer. It's 8-3, but the Yankees still have no room for error.

Update: Cano grounds out to second to end the game. The Tigers are off to Oakland for the ALCS! Congratulations to Detroit! They took on the best offense in the game and shut them down. What an amazing win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:11 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees in the Eighth
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Alex Rodriguez hits a ball deep to centerfield, but Granderson runs it down for the first out.

Update: Cabrera grounds out to first unassisted. Four outs to go.

Update: Damon draws a walks. That's the first free pass allowed by Bonderman in the game. He's only thrown 83 pitches.

Update: Jeter has the best at bat of the day against Bonderman, working the count to 3-2 and fouling off pitches. But Derek ends up flying out to right, and the Tigers are just three outs away from facing the Athletics.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:52 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Guillen Hits Again
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Carlos Guillen picks up his third hit of the day. He's batting .571 with a 1.000 slugging percentage in the four game series.

Update: The Tigers don't score in the seventh. It's still 8-1 with Alex Rodriguez leading off in the 8th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:44 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees In the Seventh
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Jeter leads off the seventh with a single.

Update: Abreu singles to right to put runners at first and third.

Update: Sheffield pops out to second. He's looked very bad today, lunging at pitches rather than swinging through them.

Matsui forces Abreu at second, but Jeter scores to cut the lead to 8-1.

Update: Posada picks up the third hit of the inning. Cano comes up with men on first and second and two out.

Update: Cano flies out to center to end the inning. Six more outs to send Detroit to the ALCS.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:31 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Pouring It On
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Casey drives in Polanco from first with a double down the rightfield line. The Yankees are down 8-0 with three at bats between them and the end of the season. The Detroit offense keeps pouring it on.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:25 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cano Gets a Hit
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Robinson Cano grounds a ball up the middle for a single, the first hit of the game for New York. The Yankees have a man on first with none out for A-Rod.

Update: Alex Rodriguez grounds to third, forcing Cano at second.

Update: Cabrera grounds to second, forcing A-Rod.

Update: Damon grounds to second base for the third out. The Tigers need nine outs for a flight to Oakland.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Two More Runners
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Polanco and Casey single to start the bottom of the fifth. They put men on first and third for Ordonez.

Update: Ordonez hits a sinking breaking ball hard into left to put the Tigers up 5-0.

Update: Guillen doubles to drive in Casey from second. It's 6-0. That's it for Lidle. My friend Jim Storer says they should bring in Rivera.

Update: Bruney gives up a sacrifice fly to I-Rod, and it's 7-0 Detroit. As far as I know, Bonderman hasn't blown a 7-0 lead this season. :-)

Update: Proctor comes on and gets a ground for the second out.

Update: Proctor strikes out Thames to end the inning. The Yankees have four innings to score at least seven runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:50 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Fifteen Outs
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Bonderman retires the side in order again, striking out two. Both Sheffield and Posada chased pitches that dropped out of the strike zone for strike three. He's thrown 40 pitches, 32 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:44 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Twelve in a Row
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The Yankees go quietly in the fourth. Bonderman struck out Jeter for only his second strikeout of the game. Like Rogers last night, Bonderman has the Yankees totally off their game. They have no idea what's coming, and his stuff is so good they can't get wood on the ball. Jeremy used just 31 pitches through four innings, 25 for strikes. The Yankees often see six balls in the first two or three batters of a game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:32 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Alex Rodriguez tries to backhand a shot by Ordonez. He knocks it down throws wide of first and Sheffield tries to hold the bag rather than going for the catch and the tag. Alex gets the error, but an experienced first baseman makes the play.

Guillen lines one over the leap of Cano to put runners on 1st and 3rd for I-Rod.

Update: Pudge singles up the middle, and it's four nothing Tigers.

Update: That's it for Wright. He gives up five hits and a walk, and at least one unearned run in 2 2/3 innings.

Update: It's Lidle on to try to shut down the Tigers.

Update: Lidle strikes out Monroe to end the inning. The Yankees have to hope Bonderman pitches with a lead like he did last Sunday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:16 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Nine for Nine
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For the third inning in a row, Bonderman retires the side in order. The Yankees offense is totally out of character, only seeing 23 pitches through three innings. Thats just over 2 per batter. The Yankees averaged 3.81 per batter this season. Bonderman's thrown 18 of the 23 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:09 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Mags Mashes
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Magglio Ordonez leads off the second with a home run for the Tigers. Keeping the ball in the park was something Wright did well this year, allowing just 10 in 140 1/3 innings.

Update: Wright walks Rodriguez, then gives up another long ball to Monroe. The Tigers take an early 3-0 lead.

I keep humming to myself, "If loving you is Wang, to don't want to pitch Wright."

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:49 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals In the Ninth
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Edmonds flies out to center to start the ninth. Rolen follows with a groundout to shortstop. Encarnacion is up.

Update: Encarnacion strikes out to end the game. The Padres live to play another day. That's eleven strikeouts for the Padres staff today.

San Diego put lots of runners on base today, picking up 10 hits and 8 walks. That's a big improvement. If they can get more more hits in a row, they might even increase their run production! They only hit into one double play on the day. They were 1 for 15 with runners in scoring position and left 15 men on base.

With Young and the bullpen today, that was enough.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:42 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
No Hits in the First
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The Tigers follow the Yankees example, going 1-2-3 in the first on a grounder, a liner and a fly.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:41 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Locked and Loaded
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The Padres load the bases in the top of the ninth with one out for Khalil Greene.

Update: Greene strikes out. That brings Blum to the plate. The Padres can really use another run here.

Update: Blum flies out to center. The Padres blow a big opportunity. Hoffman will be coming on to try to hold the two run lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:35 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Yankees Tigers Underway
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Bonderman retires the side in order in the first on a grounder and two fly outs. The Tigers face Wright in the bottom of the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:33 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
He's So Taguchi!
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Taguchi is announced as a pinch hitter, and Bochy brings in Linebrink to gain the platoon advantage. So sends the ball for a long ride, depositing it in a see of red Cardinals jerseys in the left field seats to cut the Padres lead to 3-1. So hit just two home runs all year and slugged .351 for the season.

Update: Linebrink walks Duncan with one out. That bring Pujols to the plate as the tying run. Where's Hoffman?

Update: LInebrink gets Pujols to ground into a 5-4-3 double play. I just think that was the perfect time to bring in your closer, since the game is on the line at that point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:13 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Young Done
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Chris Young gives the Padres 6 2/3 outstanding innings, allowing four hits, two walks and striking out nine. Embree is on with Belliard at second. His double chases Young from the game.

Update: Embree gets pinch hitter Spiezeo to end the inning. The Padres are six out away from a game four.

Update: The shadows are creeping out over the plate. It's just going to get tougher to hit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:53 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Alex Eighth
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Torre drops Alex Rodriguez to eighth in the lineup for today's game. I don't agree with it, but maybe Joe's trying to kickstart his third baseman. Then again, Joe could pull names out of a hat and come up with a decent lineup.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:44 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Padres Quadruple Production
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The Padres score three times their runs in the previous two games in the fourth inning. Russell Branyan, who last tripled in 2004, drives in two with a three-bagger, and then scores on a Blum sacrifice fly.

Young is handling the Cardinals so far, allowing just one hit while striking out six through 3 2/3 innings. The Padres lead 3-0 in the bottom of the fourth.

Update: Young strikes out Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen in the bottom of the fourth. Not a bad inning for any pitcher.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:26 PM | League Division Series | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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It's elimination Saturday as three teams can clinch berths in the LCS. The Cardinals get the first shot at advancing as Padres fans get baseball with their breakfast this morning. Chris Young faces Jeff Suppan. Young is unusual in two ways. First, he's a righty that performs better against lefties. That won't do him much good today as the Cardinals are not a very left-handed team. But he's also a better road pitcher, going 6-0 away from San Diego with a 2.41 ERA. That was the best road mark this season by half a run. He handled the Cardinals in his one start against them this season, allowing three hits and one run in seven innings. But he didn't get the decision. If the Padres can't score, it doesn't matter how well Young pitches.

San Diego scored one run in the first two games, and Jeff Suppan would like to keep that total right there. Suppan puts his strength against Young's strength, as Jeff is much better at home, allowing walks and homer at a lower rate than on the road. He's also pitched well in the post season, collecting a 3.45 ERA in five starts.

Jeremy Bonderman tries to close the deal for the Tigers this afternoon. Bonderman show be the ace of the Detroit staff. His strikeouts, walks and home runs all point to someone with an ERA lower than 4.00. However, Bonderman is coming off a game in which a Royals defeat would make the Tigers division champions, and he couldn't last through five innings with a 6-0 lead. (Kenny Rogers lost that game in relief, for what that's worth.) Bonderman's consistently underperformed his fielding independent pitching numbers. It makes you wonder if there's something other than bad luck happening here.

He'll face one of the luckier pitchers of 2006, Jaret Wright. He no long strikes batters out, lefties cream him, but with runners in scoring position this season opponents hit just .236. He's a five or six inning pitcher at best. So the Yankees not only need five good innings from Wright, they'll need four from the pen as well. Torre did not even consider Wang for the start:

Chien-Ming Wang, slotted to start a possible Game 5, stayed behind in New York, and the young righthander, according to Torre, "wasn't too happy about it." On whether he would have considered deploying the 19-game winner for Game 4, on three days rest, if the Yankees faced elimination, Torre said, "This youngster has pitched more innings this year than he's ever pitched. I'm certainly not going to take a chance with his future on short rest."

The Mets send their own version of a lucky pitcher to the mound, as Steve Trachsel tries to finish the sweep of the Dodgers against Greg Maddux. Trachsel struck out one more than he walked this season, posted a 4.97 ERA and still managed to win 15 games. Like Wright, he allowed a much lower batting average with runners in scoring position. Maddux is making his 30th post-season start. He's essentially pitched a whole extra year outside of the regular season. Although he's been good for a 3.22 ERA, his record is just 11-14 as he's been hurt by poor fielding and poor run support. He's allowed 23 unearned runs in the post season out of 91, and his teams scored just 90 runs with him on the mound.

Enjoy!

Purchase ALDS tickets.

Purchase NLDS tickets.

Purchase ALCS tickets.

Purchase NLCS tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:08 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Unsourced Speculation
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Ken Rosenthal sees the Yankees hitting the panic button if they lose today, but gives no indication why he thinks this:

Not that anything is at stake Saturday, but if the Yankees lose, they could fire manager Joe Torre, trade third baseman Alex Rodriguez and kidnap Japanese right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, just for starters.

All those teams wishing to hire Lou Piniella as their next manager? Better wait. All those claims by Rodriguez that he will never waive his no-trade clause? Better not print them in indelible ink.

The Yankees will blow it up and try again, and to what end? They will simply assemble another band of soulless mercenaries, and maybe hire a mercenary manager as well. A lot of good it is doing them: Last anyone checked, they haven't won the World Series since 2000.

A pity that $198 million doesn't go as far as it used to. The "Greatest Lineup in Baseball History" has managed three runs the past two games, and one more loss will produce this startling new baseball reality: A postseason final four featuring only one of the game's 12 highest Opening Day payrolls.

Come on, Ken, not even an anonymous source? This sounds more like a company employee worried about the post-season ratings going down the tubes. At least the Mets or the Dodgers will be in the next round. That should bring in some viewers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:00 AM | League Division Series | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
Radke's Delay
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The loss to the Oakland Athletics caused Brad Radke to delay his decision on retirement:

But when the final heartbreaking out of the Twins' season disappeared into Jay Payton's glove Friday afternoon, Radke, eyes glistening, couldn't say the words. He couldn't walk away.

Not on these terms. Not after this loss. At least not on this day.

"Right now it's just hard for me to fathom," said Radke, who postponed announcing his expected retirement after the Twins were eliminated from the playoffs in an 8-3 loss to the Oakland A's. Radke pitched four innings in the second start of one of the most improbable injury comebacks in recent memory.

"I think I just really didn't want it to end," Radke said. "When you're out there in April and May and June, you're like, 'I've got a few months left.' But when you get down to the end, you just can't believe it's already here."

Radke, who turns 34 this month, suggested at one point that he might just be delaying an inevitable announcement.

"I think I'm just making excuses," he said. "I think I know what my decision's going to be."

It's always tough for these competitive people to walk away from the game, especially when you go out on a low note.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 AM | Pitchers | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Head to Toe
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Jim Edmonds is getting injections in his foot to numb the pain:

Jim Edmonds' most complicated season resumes this morning with a simple, painful truth. The Cardinals center fielder will arrive at Busch Stadium shortly before 9 a.m. and limp to the trainer's room, where he will accept a needle near the ball beneath his left foot.

The Lydocaine injection will eventually numb the area, allowing Edmonds to walk as someone capable of playing Gold Glove defense rather than a man appearing like he is literally on his last legs.

Given his injuries to his head and his foot this season, it's impressive that he's playing at all. I wonder if he'll be back next year, especially if he takes home a World Series Ring.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
A Tear Waiting to Happen
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Nomar Garciaparra won't start in the post season:

Dodgers first baseman Nomar Garciaparra has a tear in his left quadriceps and won't be in the lineup for Game 3 of the NL playoffs today when Los Angeles tries to avoid getting swept by the New York Mets.

It's unlikely Garciaparra would be able to start another game in the post-season, no matter how far the Dodgers advance, manager Grady Little said yesterday.

It's not clear if he can play the role of Kirk Gibson. At this point in his career, Nomar is just a muscle tear waiting to happen. The Dodgers were fortunate it didn't happen until late in the season. Maybe this is Loney's chance to be the hero.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
On the Beane
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Winning doesn't seem to have changed Billy Beane:

As the wild celebration continued in the A's clubhouse late Friday afternoon, the A's general manager and part owner stood at the entrance of the clubhouse -- very dry -- with the same tone and reflection he felt before the series began.

"It wasn't going to be part of my self-esteem, whether we got through the first round or not," Beane said. "I'm glad we're not in the division with the Minnesota Twins. I wouldn't want to play them in a seven- or nine-game series.

"They have a very good team. They won more games than we did. The short series helped us out. That's why when you get a chance, you have to close it out. We've proved that winning two games gets you nowhere."

Maybe he likes experience a little bit more, however:

"I do think experience helped us a little bit," Beane said. "There's been times where I've discounted that. I'll always take talent over experience. But I do think it had an impact on how we prepared for the games and how we flew back from Minnesota.

"It was a very quiet plane. Everybody was disappointed because of Mark (Ellis')broken finger. But they were very business-like. Of course, that's why we brought in (Esteban) Loaiza: to keep everybody in check."

Of course, the experience players Beane brough in had talent as well, as Loaiza, Thomas and Bradley all contributed to the sweep of the Twins.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 AM | Management | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tribute to the Unit
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Rays of Light posts a very moving tribute to Randy Johnson:

He still throws with the natural grace of a man who was born to do nothing else. But you can read the disbelief in his face when the pitches that used to have batters cutting through stark air are driven much faster in the opposite direction, and the 8 players behind him and the millions of people watching think back to what he once was. He walks from the mound having failed to keep his team in the fight with perfect acceptance that it is the right move. He knows there is someone less tired. He knows there is someone with more to prove. He knows there is someone who has begun perfecting the pitches he perfected. Randy Johnson walks from the mound in October battered and with this head down. But in order to see him, for generations to come, pitchers will have to look up.

Hear, hear!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:17 AM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
How Important is a Closer?
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Trevor Hoffman hasn't helped the Padres in the playoffs:

In a perfect world, Trevor Hoffman, the near-perfect reliever, would be reveling in the postseason spotlight this week.

October has yet to work out well for San Diego or the premier reliever in the history of the game.

The Padres not only haven't been able to get the ball to Hoffman in a save situation against St. Louis in their National League division series, San Diego is winless in the best-of-five series heading into Game 3 at Busch Stadium today.

Just like Joe Nathan, a closer is only as good as the team that gets him the ball. If the Padres or Dodgers or Twins or Yankees can't take a lead into the ninth, the most perfect pitcher in the world isn't going to do them any good. It's nice to have the luxury of a Trevor Hoffman, but his talent is wasted if your team can't score.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:05 AM | Post Season | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Buck O'Neil Passes
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Buck O'Neil died yesterday:

O'Neil was a smooth fielder and a two-time league-leading hitter with the Kansas City Monarchs, one of the Negro leagues' most acclaimed teams, and he also managed them. He spent more than three decades working in the Chicago Cubs' system, becoming one of organized baseball's first black scouts and then the first black coach in the majors. In all, his baseball career spanned seven decades.

O'Neil had been chairman of the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum in Kansas City, Mo., since its founding in 1997 and made scores of appearances to raise funds for it. He bore witness to the exploits of figures like Satchel Paige, Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard, Cool Papa Bell, Oscar Charleston and Ray Dandridge. All of those players were inducted into the Hall of Fame at Cooperstown belatedly, their prime seasons in the Negro leagues coming in the years before Jackie Robinson broke the modern major league color barrier.

For the most recent generations of baseball fans, those born long after baseball became integrated, Buck was the window into the segregated past. His dignity and good humor will be missed. My thoughts go out to his family and friends, and all the people he touched.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:52 AM | Deaths | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
October 06, 2006
To the Ninth
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Detroit puts two men on in the bottom of the eighth but don't score. The Yankees have three outs to score six runs.

Update: Todd Jones comes in to start the ninth. He'll face Giambi, Posada and Matsui.

Update: Giambi falls behind 0-2, then flies out to right.

Update: Posada pops out to short. It's up to Matsui.

Update: Matsui falls behind 0-2. He strikes out on a high, outside pitch to end the game and put the Tigers on the brink of reaching the ALCS.

Rogers hit his spots all night. He moved the ball around, he changed speeds, he put tremendous movement on his pitches. It took him a long time to find this success, but it's a sweet night for Kenny and the Tigers. Now Bonderman gets the chance to put the Yankees away.

I must admit I'm flabbergasted by Rogers' performance tonight. Given his past post-season performances, given his long string of failures against New York, I didn't expect a picture perfect game from the lefty. He made a great hitting team look like minor leaguers tonight. I'm impressed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | League Division Series | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0)
One More Inning
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Rogers comes out to start the eighth and strikes out Damon.

Update: Rogers now has seven strikeouts in the game. He only reached that level twice this season. He struck out 9 on 6/13, his season high, and hasn't had more than four in a game since then.

Update: Rogers walks Jeter. Leyland comes out but doesn't pull Kenny.

Update: Abreu tries to bunt for a hit on the first pitch and grounds it foul. Rogers then completely fools him on a curve ball, then strikes him out looking. That's it, Rogers finishes the game with 7 2/3 innings pitched, two walks and eight strikeouts. He saved his biggest, best game for the end of this 18th season.

Update: Zumaya enters in relief.

Update: A-Rod flies out to end the inning. The Yankees continue to get one base runner per inning. Detroit is three outs away from taking a 2-1 lead in the best of five series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Curtis Clout
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Granderson leads off the seventh with a home run and Detroit is up 6-0. Since the middle of the game yesterday, the Tigers have returned to their pre August 8th form.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Posada Pops
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Posada drives a double to centerfield. The Yankees keep getting just one runner on an inning.

Update: Matsui is the first Yankee to advance a runner as he grounds out to the right side. Outs are very precious to the Yankees, now, however.

Update: Williams strikes out. Bernie is 0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts. It looks like the substitution for Sheffield didn't work.

Update: Cano grounds out to end the inning. The Yankees have not scored in 12 innings. Kenny Rogers is pitching the game of his life.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:24 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Jeter Too Short
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Carlos Guillen hits a line drive over Jeter's head. Derek jumps and knocks the ball down, but Guillen is safe with as single. I-Rod then smashes the ball down the leftfield line on a hit and run to score Carlos and wind up at second on with double. Johnson's running out of gas as Casey then pulls a double into the gap in right-center. The Tigers lead 5-0 as Randy leaves the game.

Update: Johnson pitched well for someone with a bad back, but he wasn't dominating. The Yankees haven't been their usual selves against Kenny Rogers, and they find themselves in a huge hole.

Update: Bruney strikes out Inge to end the inning. The Yankees have three innings to score five runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Protective Reaction
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Derek Jeter lines one hard at Kenny Rogers head, but Kenny gets his hand up and knocks the ball down. He throws out Derek for the first out of the sixth. The ball hit his pitching hand, not the glove, so we'll see if it has any effect.

Update: Rogers strikes out Abreu. I guess he's okay!

Update: A-Rod gets nicked by a ball, but Giambi grounds to first to end the inning. Rogers leads 3-0 through six innings. He's at 86 pitches, so he should be good for another inning at least.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:59 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hitting the Chalk
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Bad umpiring in the bottom of the fifth. Polanco lines one down the leftfield line, and it clearly hits the chalk. The umpires miss it somehow, and it goes as a foul ball. Polanco draws a walk anyway.

Update: Looking at the replay, I don't see how both umpires missed that call. It looked to me that both umpires are looking at the ball. How did they miss the chalk flying in the air?

Update: Giambi makes a good (but not great) throw on a pickoff this time and gets Polanco at second. It's still Detroit 3, Yankees 0 after five.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
A Fifth of Godzilla
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With the score still 3-0, Matsui doubles to lead off the 5th.

Update: Bernie Williams just misses the foul pole, then strikes out on a pitch in the dirt.

Update: Rogers strikes out Cano on a sweeping, sinking pitch away. Cano did not look good on that at bat at all.

Update: Damon grounds out to end the inning. Matsui gets to second and just stays there. Rogers had a low strikeout rate this season (99 in 204 IP) but he's struck out four through five innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:36 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cano Connects
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Robinson Cano leads off the third with a single.

Update: After Damon flies out, Jeter hits into a double play to end the inning. Rogers is in control tonight, throwing a very high percentage of strikes, 29 of 42 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
The Pattern Holds
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The Yankees picked up a one-out hit in the second, just like in the first. The Tigers get a leadoff hit in the second, just like in the first.

Update: I-Rod follows with the second opposite field hit of the inning. The Tigers have runners at 1st and 3rd with no one out.

Update: Casey sneaks a ball under Cano's glove to drive in the first run of the game. I-Rod goes to third on a very close play. On the replay, it looks like A-Rod tagged him, but I can't tell if I-Rod's hand got in there first.

Update: I'm very surprised Cano didn't dive for that ball. He does dive on one up the middle, but the Yankees can't turn the double play and another run scores. It's 2-0 Tigers.

Update: Granderson steals a base on a pickoff. Giambi throws high after he can't get the ball out of his glove. Polanco singles up the middle to drive him in and make the score 3-0.

Update: That's all the Tigers get. The Yankees made two poor defensive plays in that inning, the grounder going under Cano's glove and the poor throw by Giambi. The also made two good plays, Cano stopping the grounder up the middle and Abreu's throw, although the second didn't result in an out. The Tigers take advantage of the mistakes and put up a decent lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:39 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
One Batter, One Hit
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Polanco chops one in front of the plate that bounces over Johnson and into centerfield for the first Detroit hit of the game.

Update: And that's all the Tigers get in the first. Johnson looked fluid delivering his pitches, striking out one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Jeter Strikes Again
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With one out in the top of the first, Jeter fights off an inside pitch and drives it into the rightfield power alley for his fourth double of the series.

Update: That's all the Yankees get in the first. No score as Johnson comes out for the bottom of the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Top of the Ninth
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The A's go quietly in the 8th, and now Street is on to get the last three outs in the top of the ninth. The bottom of the order is due up, White, Tyner and Bartlett.

Update: White lines a 1-2 pitch into center for a single to start the inning. White is 3 for 4 today, and is hitting .417 for the series.

Update: Tyner grounds into a double play. The Athletics are one out away from the win.

Update: Bartlett dumps one into right for the single. They need to keep those coming.

Update: Castillo flies out to Payton in left and the Oakland Athletics advance to the next round. Congratulations to the Athletics on a very impressive sweep.

Many people said the Twins were the scariest team in the playoffs, mostly due to their great pitching. That was there in the first two games, but Oakland managed to pitch just a little bit better, and hit a bit better.

Oakland also took advantage of the Twins mistake. The Hunter missed dive and the Morneau error stand out. The opportunities for Minnesota to score were there, but they just couldn't connect for the big hit.

Eric Chavez had a big day, and getting his bat back in order will be big in the next round. Oakland will either head to New York or host the Tigers on Tuesday. It's nice to see a Billy Beane team finally win a playoff series.

Congratulations to Brad Radke as well, who pitched a gutsy if unsuccessful game to end his career.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:54 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Morneau Gets One Back
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Justin Morneau hits a two-out solo home run to get one run back. You could see the digust with himself as he rounded the bases. His error prevented that homer from bringing the Twins within one. The A's lead 8-3, and with the end of the inning, they are three outs away from a trip to the AL championship series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:48 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Crain's Pain
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Jesse Crain enters the game with Thomas and Chavez on base with walks. He get Payton to ground to first, but Morneau boots the ball to load the bases.

Update: Crain walks Swisher on a 3-2 pitch to force in Thomas. Thomas was intentionally walked when Reyes fell behind the Big Hurt. It's 5-2 Oakland in the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Scutaro clears the bases with a double that lands just inside the rightfield line. That makes it 8-2 and the Oakland fans smell a victory. It's Scutaro's fourth double of the the series, and he's slugging .667 in the three games.

Update: The inning ends on a strikeout. It's a very strange inning for the Twins, however, as they issue three walks. Up until this point they controlled the A's offense by taking away the free pass. But they played into Oakland's strength in that inning and now they need to scored six runs with only six outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:34 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
This Justin
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Justin Duchscherer relieves Haren to start the seventh and retires the Twins in order. Oakland is just six outs away from returning to the ALCS.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:20 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Scoring Position
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The Twins don't get the leadoff man on, but Morneau singles and Hunter doubles to put men on 2nd and 3rd with one out. The Twins have yet to get a hit with runners in scoring position. Rondell White changes that with a single to right, but the trailing runner Hunter is thrown out at the plate. There's an arugment about the call.

Update: The replays are pretty inconclusives. Kendall might have tagged Hunter in the back. I'm not even sure that Hunter got the plate with his hand. White failed to advance to second on the throw. It's 4-2 Oakland.

Update: Tyner strikes out to end the inning. The Twins do creep back in with one run, however.

Update: They showed another angle of the tag at the plate. I'd have to say the tag was missed, but it's not perfectly clear.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:59 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Chavez Power
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Eric Chavez follows a Frank Thomas single with a double off the leftfield wall to put runners on 2nd and 3rd and chase Perkins from the game. Chavez's return to form will be a huge boost to the Athletics if they continue in the post season.

Update: Rincon hits to the drawn in infield, and Frank Thomas is thrown out at the plate by a mile. It's up to Swisher.

Update: Swisher flies out to end the inning. The Twins can use a couple of runs here in the sixth. The A's didn't blow the score open, so it would be a good time for the Twins to close the gap.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:49 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Why Pitchers Don't Catch Popups
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Brad Radke calls for a pop up near the first base line, then drops it. The announcers thought Brad heard foot steps from Morneau, but I wonder if it wasn't his shoulder. Remember, Radke couldn't play catch with his injury, and he tried to basket catch this ball with one hand. Kendall follows with a single to put men on 1st and 2nd with two outs.

Update: Radke gets a fly out to end the inning. He's thrown 83 pitches and could be through.

Update: The Twins don't score in the fifth, and Radke is not coming out for the bottom of the inning. Perkins is on in relief.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:26 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hunter Gets One Back
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Torri Hunter hits one into the seats down the leftfield line to cut the lead to 4-1. Haren, as usual gives up the solo shot, something that doesn't hurt much with a 4-0 lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:16 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Another Long Ball
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Bartlett makes an error at shortstop, and Milton Bradley follows with a home run to straight away center. Radke and the Twins are down 4-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:04 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
One Swing
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Eric Chavez gets all of a pitch and deposits it in the right field seats. Chavez's power started coming back in September. He hit six homers that month after only hitting four in the three previous months. The Athletics lead 1-0 in the bottom of the second.

Update: Scutaro doubles in Payton to extend the lead to 2-0. Radke's given up three hits so far, two of them for extra-bases.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:40 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Threatening Again
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Once again, the Twins get a runner in scoring position. Mauer reaches third base with one after a double and a sacrifice, but can't score on a shallow fly out. Bartlett is up after a walk with runners on 1st and 3rd.

Update: Bartlett strikes out to end the inning. The Twins are getting men on, which is good, they're just not moving them very far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:33 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Twins in the First
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Singles by Castillo and Mauer put men on 1st and 2nd with one out. Punto replaced Luis on the bases with a force out.

Update: The untimely hitting continues. Cuddyer grounds into a 5-4-3 double play to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:15 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bluefish Purge
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My old home town team, the Bridgeport Bluefish, purged their front office:

Popular general manager Charlie Dowd was fired by the Bridgeport Bluefish according to the Westport Minuteman.

But, it all goes back to the owners -- Jack McGregor and Mary Jane Foster - and according to the editorial by Minuteman's Rob Sullivan, Dowd is only the latest in what appears to have been the entire organization being fired.

Dowd built the team from the very beginning. I've met him a couple of times and he always struck me as very professional and very fan oriented. I'm sure he'll find another job soon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:10 PM | Independent Leagues | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wang Move
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I agree with WasWatching that this is a mistake. From the NY Post:

Chien-Ming Wang didn't accompany the Yankees to Detroit because he wouldn't be available until Game 5 at Yankee Stadium.

Torre pulled Wang early from game 1. At the time I assumed Joe was thinking ahead, saving Chien-Ming in case he needed to bring him back for game 4.

Of course, it won't take that long for Wang to get to Detroit if the Yankees decide they do need to pitch him in game 4.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:02 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Minnesota Twins hopes to stay alive in the playoffs are placed on the tender shoulder of Brad Radke. Brad is at the end of a twelve year career, all with the Twins, and is going out to pitch having recovered from a stress fracture to his shoulder.

"We call him William Wallace from 'Braveheart,"' center fielder Torii Hunter said. "That's what he reminds me of. The guy has all kinds of bumps and bruises and scars and breakage everywhere and he's still on the mound dogging it out. This is his last stand."

But can he provide more than inspiration? Radke shut down the Athletics in the 2002 LDS, but since he hasn't won a game. The problem wasn't Brad, it's that the Twins don't score for him. In the post season, he's allowed 15 runs in five starts, but the Twins only scored 12. No matter how well he pitches, the Twins need to find a way to score against the Oakland pitching staff.

The Athletics send Dan Haren to the mound. Haren posted good strikeout and walk numbers, but his weakness is the longball. Because his opposition OBA is low, 2/3 of his 31 homers came with the bases empty. The Twins need to find a way to pop one with men on base.

It's the battle of the old lefties as Randy Johnson faces Kenny Rogers in Detroit. Johnson is pitching with a herniated disk. This could be replay of game five on the 2003 World Series, where Wells had to leave after one inning due to his bad back. Or the epidural could be all Johnson needed and he turns in a 2001 like performance. More likely, he goes five okay innings, stiffens up, and leaves it up to the Yankees offense and bullpen.

Rogers is simply a poor post-season pitcher. In 20 1/3 innings covering five starts and four relief appearances he's allowed an 8.85 ERA. He's walked 16 and allowed 32 hits. His only good series was in 2003 when he pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings against these same New York Yankees. Remember, this was the man that lost the NLCS for the Mets in 1999 because he couldn't throw a strike with the bases loaded, walking in the winning run. If you're looking for offense in the post season, this is likely the game in which you'll find it.

Enjoy!

Purchase ALDS tickets.

Purchase NLDS tickets.


Purchase ALCS tickets.

Purchase NLCS tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Adopted Team
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6-4-2 Rounds up yesterday's LDS action and notes he feels a kinship with the Tigers:

The Tigers have much the same problem with their offense as the Angels do, i.e., not a lot of OBP, and so I feel a strange sort of kinship or at least familiarity when watching them scrap it out against the Yanks. Today's game was, save for Carlos Guillen's homer, a thing of treads and scratches, chip-chip-chipping away against Mister Moose, with their outstanding bullpen able to keep the Yanks down, one 100 MPH fastball after another.

Unlike the Angels, Detroit has no real positive record against the Yankees and so I'm less than enthusiastic when predicting their future success against the Bombers; it might just go to five, though, after listening to this gallant effort. Go, Tigers, because they're a great story, and because, dammit, they deserve it.

Of course, fans of the other seven teams feel their teams deserve it as much.

Just as an aside, have you noticed how this playoff is sort of an 80's reunion? Six of the teams won World Championships during the 1980s, the first shutout decade for the Yankees since the 1910's.

  • 1981 Dodgers
  • 1982 Cardinals
  • 1984 Tigers
  • 1986 Mets
  • 1987 Twins
  • 1988 Dodgers
  • 1989 Athletics

Only the Twins, with a win in 1991 won a World Series since. If, however, you're looking for the streak of "teams who haven't won in a real long time winning" to continue, you should root for the Padres.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 AM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
More to Managing than Strategy
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It was a meeting between Gardenhire and Morneau that turned around the slugger's season:

Dig a little deeper, and Morneau admits the significance of the conversation. The pregame meeting allowed the manager to tell his young slugger that the team had confidence in him; that he had confidence in him. That the Twins had faith he could become a great player if he started focusing more on baseball.

Because, without him, they weren't going to win anything.

``Just him pointing out to me that I can do a lot of things not a lot of people can do," said Morneau, a candidate for the American League's MVP Award. ``He was just trying to help me see that. You know, it took me a minute to kind of figure it out. I either could have took it one way, gotten mad, and said he's just mad at me or whatever. Or I could see it as him trying to help me, which he did. He tried to help me see that I can help this team win."

And that is exactly what he did. Before and including that game, Morneau had batted .236 with just 11 home runs, 38 RBIs, and a .747 OPS in 53 games. In the 104 games that followed, Morneau batted .362 with 23 home runs, 92 RBIs, and a 1.023 OPS. After the 10-9 loss that night, the Twins were 24-33 and, essentially, treading water. But they went 71-33 the rest of the way and headed straight for the playoffs.

I thought this post turned him around. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Off the Cuff
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Pedro Martinez underwent rotator cuff surgery yesterday. The operation was deemed a success.

It was Morgan, when Martínez first learned he had a partial tear of his rotator cuff in 2001, who advised against surgery, a recommendation supported by Dr. Lewis Yocum when Martínez sought a second opinion. Instead, under the supervision of former Sox physical therapist Chris Correnti, Martínez embarked on a program to strengthen the muscles in his shoulder around the tear. Martínez rebounded the following season to win 20 games, defying those who thought he'd never be the same and rewarding his faith in the Sox medical team.

But after averaging 15 wins over the next three seasons, including his last two with the Red Sox, and signing a four-year, $53 million contract with the Mets, Martínez broke down physically this season, sidelined by toe, hip, and calf injuries, before an MRI revealed the torn cuff. The three-time Cy Young Award winner was just 9-8 with a 4.48 ERA in 23 starts, only 2-5 with a 8.74 ERA in his last eight starts, a stretch that began with him allowing eight runs (six earned) in three innings in his first appearance at Fenway Park since leaving as a free agent.

The Mets' great season, with and without Pedro, is likely helping to shield Minaya from criticism of the deal. He built enough depth into the club to overcome the injuries.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 AM | Injuries | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Ending the Streak
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Josh Suchon reminds us that not only have the Athletics lost nine straight division clinching games, but they've done so in bizarre fashion:

Terrence Long lost a ball in the sun. Jeremy Giambi didn't slide. F.P. Santangelo muffed a routine grounder. Practically the entire team contributed to the worst defensive inning of all-time.

Billy Koch served up a back-breaking, ninth-inning home run. Eric Byrnes missed home plate and didn't go back to touch it. Miguel Tejada stopped running between third base and home.

The A's haven't just lost nine straight potential clinching games in the division series, they've lost them with some of the most bizarre, horrifying, and mind-boggling mistakes -- mental and physical -- in playoff history.

Those images, fair or not, are part of the A's playoff history. Right there with Joe Rudi leaping against the wall in Cincinnati, Jose Canseco hitting one into orbit in Toronto, and Dennis Eckersley's dramatic long uppercut fist pump after wrapping up the 1989 World Series against the Giants.

Nothing against the Twins, but this is one streak I'd like to see broken. Beane was the first GM to prove Selig wrong about the relationship of money to winning, and I'd like to see him rewarded with a playoff win for all his work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:56 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Win Won for the Pitcher
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Nick and Nick's Twins Blog finds the silver lining in the Twins series:

Similarly things look pretty down going into this afternoon's game. But here's something to remember: This series is already going down the trail of the regular season; starting off with everything going wrong before an incredible and unbelievable comeback.

Now, I make no predictions here, but who can't say that a great Brad Radke start and a Twins win wouldn't flow perfectly with what has already happened this year. I know that its tough to have faith in a guy who's shoulder is ready to fall off, but Radke has not given us any reasons to doubt him.

Nick notes honoring Kirby Puckett helped drive the Twins this season. He wants them to honor Brad Radke with the same drive today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:49 AM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 05, 2006
Dodgers in the Ninth
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The Dodgers are coming up in the top of the ninth to face Billy Wagner. Martin, Anderson and Lugo are due up.

Update: Martin grounds out to shortstop. The throw was off a bit but Delgado made the tag.

Update: Anderson taps back to Wagner. Two out. It's up to Lugo.

Update: Lugo grounds out to short and once again Delgado makes the tag. Three of the four series start 2-0, but the Mets are the only team that maintain their home field advantage.

The Dodgers did the Padres one hit better, 5-4, and that one extra base knock was the home run that put them on the board. It wasn't a great day for California baseball, as the Padres and Dodgers combined for one run.

The Mets did everything well today. They spread out the Dodgers hits and they put ten of their own players on base. The even put the bat on the ball with men on base to advance the runners. as three of their runs came on outs. At worst, the Mets will need to come back for one more game at Shea. At best, they'll open the NLCS next Wednesday night.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Dodgers Break Through
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Wilson Betemit homers off Aaron Heilman with one out in the 8th. The solo shot cuts the Mets lead to 4-1. Over the last two season, Heilman only allowed 11 home runs in 195 innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:58 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Loaded Again
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Two singles start the bottom of the sixth for the Mets. Valentin bunts and beats the dropped throw from the pitcher. Once again, the Mets load the bases. They hit 10 grand slams during the regular season, and hit .321 as a team with the bases full.

Update: Hendrickson comes in to face Chavez.

Update: Chavez grounds back to the mound, and Wright is thrown out at the plate. Franco pinch hits for Glavine.

Update: Franco hits a slow roller to short that catches Furcal in between hops. The Dodgers fail to turn the double play, just getting the force at second. That gives Franco an RBI and the Mets a 3-0 lead.

Jose Reyes follows with a single up the middle to make it Mets 4, Dodgers 0. That's Jose's first hit of the series.

Update: That's all the Mets get. The bullpen gets the chance to hold a four-run lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Threat in the Fifth
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The bottom of the order gets on for the Mets as Valentin walks and Chavez singles to bring Glavine to the plate in a bunt situation. Tom wasn't able to lay one down his first time up, but he executes here in the fifth, bunting to the third baseman to advance the runners.

Update: The Dodgers intentionally walk Reyes, and Kuo is done. Tomko enters in relief. Tomko gave up 11 hits and 2 home runs in 6 2/3 innings against the Mets this year.

Update: Lo Duca hits a sacrifice fly to extend the Mets lead to 2-0.

Update: Beltran walks and the bases are loaded again.

Update: That's all the Mets get as Delgado grounds out to first. It hasn't been a good day for sourthern California offenses today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Nomar Limps to First
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Nomar picks up the first hit for the Dodgers with one out in the fourth. His infield hit ticks off the glove of Wright. Nomar was busting down the first base line, and about 3/4 of the way down, he looked like he was in pain. He's still in the game.

Update: Kent follows with a single to left. He's batting .500 so far in this series.

Update: Drew is down on strikes for out number two.

Update: A fly out ends the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
No Runs Yet
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I just finished helping my daughter with her physics homework, but it looks like the only thing I missed was a single by Carlos Delgado. The Dodgers are yet to collect a hit, but they have draw a walk against Glavine. The Mets get the leadoff runner on to start the bottom of the third on an infield hit by Chavez.

Update: A wild pitch and two ground outs plate Chavez with the first run of the game. The Mets lead 1-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:03 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals Win
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Wainwright retires the Padres 1-2-3 in the ninth, striking out the last two batters. The Padres managed just four hits, three singles. The Padres haven't scored in 12 innings and have just one run to show for their two game effort. The teams head to St. Louis with the Cardinals on the verge of clinching.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:05 PM | League Division Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Tyler Ks
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Tyler Johnson strikes out both Roberts and Giles to start the eighth. His pitches sweep across the plate, away from the lefties. With the shadows in the perfect spot, the best the two batters could do was foul off some pitches. Both are caught looking for the Ks. He gets his lefty batters, and La Russa goes to the pen for Wainwright for a four-out save.

Update: Barfield greets Wainwright with a double down the leftfield line.

Update: Gonzalez grounds out to second. The Padres are 0 for 10 in the series with runners in scoring position.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:37 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Piazza in the Seventh
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Once again, Blum walks with two out. This time, Bochy sends Mike Piazza to the plate to pinch hit.

Update: Piazza swings at the first pitch and flies out to right. The Cardinals need to get just six more outs to go up 2-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:19 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Flores in the Sixth
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The Cardinals don't give Jeff Weaver a chance to blow up. They bring in Randy Flores to start the sixth inning. Good managing by La Russa.

Update: Flores allows a single to Gonzalez and La Russa goes to the bullpen for a right-hander. He brings in Josh Kinney. The rookie pitched 25 innings, striking out 22 and walking 8.

Update: Kinney ties Bard up inside. He swings, misses and falls down. It's still 2-0 Cardinals at the end of six.

Orel Hershiser points out the shadows are going to come into play soon, making it tougher to hit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:53 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wells Out
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Blum walks with two out in the bottom of the fifth. Bochy lifts Wells for Klesko.

Update: Klesko goes the other way for a single. That brings up Roberts.

Update: Roberts strikes out on a 2-2 pitch to end the inning.

Weaver pitched five fine innings so far, allowing just two hits, although he's walked three. The Padres haven't generated any power against Jeff. He's at 78 pitches. It's still 2-0 Cardinals.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:40 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Overhead Hit
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Preston Wilson starts the fourth with a line drive double over the head of Dave Roberts, putting a Pujols at the plate with a runner in scoring position.

Update: Pujols gets the single. Branyan tries to cut the ball off, but bobbles it. Pujols gets caught in a run down when the ball doesn't go very far from Branyan, but no one covers second and Albert ends up there anyway.

It looked to me like Branyan couldn't make up his mind if he should cut the ball off or let it go through. I thought it would be a close play at the plate if the ball does through. It's 1-0 Cardinals.

Update: With two out and Pujols at third, Edmonds grounds one up the middle. Walker dives and stops the ball but can't make a throw and the Cardinals lead 2-0.

Update: Roberts makes a nice diving catch on a pop down the leftfield line to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:03 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Shutout Through Three
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Jim Edmonds runs down a deep fly hit by Giles to end the third. Both Weaver and Wells allowed three base runners through three innings, Weaver on a hit and two walks, Wells on two hits and a hit batter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:00 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Roberts Arm
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Juan Encarnacion is sent home on a two out single by Belliard to left. Dave Roberts makes a perfect throw to the plate, Bard makes a perfect tag, and Juan is perfectly out. Roberts only killed one base runner all season. The game remains scoreless in the middle of the second.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:39 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Bard's Up
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The Cardinals and Padres are underway. Josh Bard did indeed start, loading the lineup with lefties. He's up with two outs after Weaver walks two of the first four batters. Bard grounds out to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:28 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Last Licks
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Bruney strikes out two as he retires the Tigers in order in the ninth. The bottom of the order is up for the Yankees, but Matsui, Posada and Cano could bat anywhere. Jones is coming on for the save. The Yankees scored five runs in 2 2/3 innings vs. Jones this season.

Update: Matsui lines a single into center to start the ninth. Melky Cabera pinch runs.

Update: Jones throws four strikes to Posada, the last catching him looking for the first out.

Update: Jones keeps throwing strikes. Cano's seen seven pitches, most fouled off. He flies out to left on the eighth. It's up to Damon.

Update: Jones gets ahead of Damon 0-2. He hasn't thrown a called ball since Matsui's at bat.

Update: Damon works the count to 2-2, fouls one off his back knee, then flies out to center to end the game. We have the first split of the LDS, and they'll play two in Detroit.

It was a bend but don't break day for Verlander, and a tremendous performance by the bullpen. In 3 2/3 innings, the Tigers' relievers allowed just one hit while striking out four. The offense hit for power, producing just enough runs to win. Now they get to face an injured Randy Johnson tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:09 PM | League Division Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Good Day for Criminals
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Greg Anderson gets out of jail on a technicallity:

A federal judge ordered Barry Bonds' personal trainer released from prison Thursday, saying a legal "snafu" had arisen.

U.S. District Judge William Alsup said Greg Anderson must be freed, because a federal appeals court hadn't affirmed his contempt order within the required 30 days.
Anderson, 40, could be returned to prison when the appeals court affirms the Aug. 28 contempt citation. Anderson was cited after refusing to testify before a grand jury investigating whether Bonds committed perjury when he said he never knowingly used steroids.

They can't keep transcripts from leaking, and they can't keep witnesses in jail. Your tax dollars at work.

Meanwhile, Bett Myers' wife drops the charges against the Philadelphia pitcher:

An abuse charge against Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Brett Myers was dismissed Thursday after his wife said she did not want her husband prosecuted for hitting her in the face during an argument near Fenway Park.

Boston Municipal Judge Raymond Dougan accepted as fact that Myers struck his wife on June 23, yet dismissed the charge - despite the objection of prosecutors - after Kim Myers agreed to an "accord of satisfaction" showing she did not want the charge pursued.

"There's no violence in our family. That night in Boston we had both been drinking," Kim Myers told the judge. "I was not hurt. I was not injured."

I hope she's making the right decision.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:04 PM | Crime | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Zumaya Zeros In
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Zumaya gets Sheffield, Giambi and Rodriguez in order. He pitches A-Rod perfectly, moving the ball in and out and catching him looking for the third out. Tigers need just three outs to force a game four.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:00 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mussina Done
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Scott Proctor starts the eighth inning for the Yankees. Mussina went deep in the game, but he gave up eight hits in his seven innings. He walked none, but five of the hits were for extra bases which cost the Yankees.

Update: Proctor walks Ordonez leading off the inning.

Update: Proctor get three fly outs to end the inning and keep the Yankees deficit at one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:44 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Six Out to Go
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Walker and Zumaya retire the Yankees in order in the seventh. Zumaya looked particularly impressive striking out Jeter. The Tigers just need to get six more outs to even the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:40 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Verlander Starts the Sixth
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I'm impressed Verlander came out for the bottom of the sixth. He's not quite at 100 pitches yet.

Update: Justin is replaced after 105 pitches in the middle of an at bat. Walker comes in can gets the last two outs of the inning.

Update: A hit, a passed ball and a bunt puts a runner at third with one out for Detroit in the top of the 7th.

Update: Granderson triples into the left-center gap to give Detroit the lead and keep a man on third with less than two outs.

The big difference between the Tigers and Yankees today is the power. That's the fifth extra-base hit for the Tigers to just two for New York. Detroit's slugging percentage was much higher this year away from Comerica, and that's coming through today.

Update: Alex Rodriguez spears a liner down the line and almost gets the double play at third, but Granderson just gets back. Mussina gets a fly out to end the inning, but the Tigers lead 4-3 at the stretch.

Correction: It's Justin, not Jason.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:05 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Guillen Goes Deep
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Carlos Guillen the batting MVP for the Tigers in 2006, homers in the top to the sixth to tie the game at three.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:59 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Tigers Come Back
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A double and a sac fly make the score 3-2 Yankees in the top of the fifth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:42 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Threat in the Fourth
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With one out, Matsui singles again and Posada walks again. Cano is up again.

Update: Cano swings at the first pitch and flies out to left. It's up to Damon.

Update: Damon smashes a ball down the line into the upper deck for a three-run home run. Verlander played with fire once too often.

Update: Jeter gets the first hit for a right-hander, a double into the left-center alley.

Update: Abreu grounds out to end the inning. It's a 24 pitch inning for Verlander. He probably can go one more.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:27 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Infielders Eyes
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Inge had trouble seeing a ground ball earlier, and now one goes by Sheffield for a double. The shadows and bright sunshine appear to be causing trouble. Carlos Guillen takes advantage as his hit goes for a double, and he's now at third with two out after a ground out.

Update: Monroe tries a surprise bunt with two out, but hits it right back to Mussina for the third out. It's 1-0 Tigers in the middle of the fourth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:17 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Another Leadoff Man On
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Mussina retires the side in order in the third, the Abreu leads off the bottom of the inning with a single off the rightfield wall. He hit it so hard, he couldn't get to second.

Update: Sheffield grounds into a double play.

Update: Verlander strikes out Giambi. Verlander throws just 11 pitches that inning, bringing his total to 55.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:08 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Lefty Parade
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Hideki Matsui reaches on a single leading off the second inning. All four Yankees lefies reached so far. Now Posada is up batting left-handed, to be followed by Cano. That gives the Yankees four lefties in a row 7-8-9-1. We'll see if that combination can break through on Verlander.

Update: Posada walks on a 3-2 count. That's five lefties all reaching base. Cano is up.

Update: Cano hits a slow roller down the third base line. Inge reacts slowly, but picks the ball up and tags third to get the lead runner.

Update: Jeter grounds to short to end the inning. Verlander's done a good job of getting out of trouble, but he's thrown 44 pitches so far.

Update: Damon flies out to the centerfielder in left-center. It's up to Jeter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:46 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Tigers Score First
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The Tigers draw first blood as Monroe doubles and Thames follows with a single over Cano to drive in Craig.

Update: Inge strikes out on a high pitch, but the Tigers lead 1-0 in the middle of the second. Mussina struck out four in two innings, continuing his history of high strikeout totals in the post season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:40 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Perfect Placement
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Johnny Damon goes down to get a low outside pitch. He pops it down the leftfield line, right between Monroe and Guillen for a single.

Jeter makes his second mistake of the game, popping up a bunt to I-Rod.

Update: Abreu walks on four pitches.

Update: Verlander just hit 99 MPH on an inside pitch to Sheffield.

Update: Sheffield strikes out on a two-strike curve ball. He showed nothing but fastballs to Gary until that last pitch.

Update: Verlander walks Giambi on a 3-2 count to load the bases for A-Rod. The 3-1 pitch hit 100 MPH on the radar gun.

Update: Rodriguez falls behind Verland 0-2, swinging at two 101 MPH fastballs. He doesn't waste a pitch. Instead, he freezes Alex with a curve ball over the plate for strike three.

Update: The Yankees alternate left/right lineup hurt them that inning. Verlander is better vs. righties. He pitched around the lefties and retired the righties. Maybe putting Abreu and Giambi back-to-back would be better for today.

The Yankees did get him to throw 20 pitches, however. If they can do that every inning, they'll get Justin out of the game early.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:23 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
First Inning Error
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The Tigers and Yankees are underway. Detroit gets their first base runner with two outs when Jeter rushes a throw and pulls Sheffield off the bag. He had plenty to time to get Casey, but couldn't bother to set himself and throw. Gary almost made a nice scoop and tag, but the ball snow-coned in his glove and the collision with Casey knocked the ball away.

Update: The error doesn't hurt as Mussina strikes out Ordonez. However, it increases Mussina's pitch count. He threw 19 pitches in the inning, 13 for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:17 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Tigers and Yankees play the make up game of their rain out at 1 PM on ESPN. Verlander and Mussina get the nod once again.

The Cardinals attempt to take a 2-0 lead from the Padres by sending Jeff Weaver against David Wells. I wonder if Bochy will start Bard at catcher today. Weaver has a huge lefty-righty split this season and with Bard Bruce can get six lefties in the lineup. Wells makes his 17th post-season start and his 27th appearance. He's 10-4 with a 3.15 ERA. Left-handers give St. Louis trouble, as their slugging percentage drops about 40 points vs. southpaws.

There was some hope that game 2 of the Dodgers/Mets series would feature Maddux against Glavine. But Greg will start in Los Angeles instead and Hong-Chih Kuo faces Tom in a battle of lefties. Left-handed pitchers are effective at reducing the Mets power at Shea, which is one reason Kuo is getting the start. Kuo, however, issues a lot of walks, which plays into another Mets strength. The Dodgers, on the other hand, hit better vs. lefties than righties.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Backup Up the Middle
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Mark Ellis broke his index finger in his ninth inning at bat yesterday and is out of action.

"It puts a real damper on the team's win," A's general manager Billy Beane said even before the team got the final diagnosis. "It's a concern. We've already lost half our infield. Mark's presence is critical."

D'Angelo Jimenez takes over for Mark. Jimenez isn't much of a hitter, but he can draw a walk. For his career he's batting .264 with a .349 OBA. Why am I not surprised the A's have someone like that on their bench?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Dropping Charges
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The fan who alleged Kenny Rogers grabbed his collar backed off pursing Rogers:

James Spurlock, 37, of Adrian, Mich., told the Detroit Free Press he will settle for an apology from Rogers for the way he and his 14-year-old son were treated when the boy asked for an autograph.

Somehow, I don't think he'll get it.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:12 AM | Fans | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Best OBA
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Barry Bonds won the NL OBA crown despite not having enough plate appearances to qualify. What they do is recalculate your average giving you an 0 for the missing plate appearances. If you would still lead, you get the title. Tony Gwynn won a batting title this way.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 AM | Players | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 04, 2006
More on the Postponement
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The Tigers-Yankees game will be made up at 1:00 PM Thursday. It seems there was poor communications about the cancellations.

"We wanted to get the game in. We thought we could," Solomon said. "The forecast indicated we could get in two, three innings tops and would have to stop against for an hour and a half to two hours. We didn't want to burn up two pitchers if we had that coming through. We reconvened, talked and we made a decision jointly with the commissioner."

Solomon said both teams were informed of the rainout at approximately the same time but not simultaneously because cell phones didn't work underneath the ballpark. He said Verlander hadn't warmed up fully.

"He did some soft tossing and some stretching, but he didn't do any real pitching," Solomon said.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:29 PM | League Division Series • | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
No Game Tonight
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The Tigers-Yankees game was postponed. They'll play tomorrow, but I don't know what time yet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:03 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:21 PM | Podcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Who'll Stop the Rain?
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The Tigers and Yankees are waiting for the rain to stop. I'll have the podcast of my radio show up in a little while if you'd like to listen to that while the rain keepps falling down.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 8 PM EDT. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:19 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Dodgers in the Ninth
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Betemit starts the inning against Billy Wagner.

Update: Betemit drives a 1-2 pitch to the wall in the right field corner for a leadoff double.

Update: Saenz pinch hits and flies out to centerfield. Betemit tags up, and is almost thrown out at third by Beltran. The ball hit Wilson in the back as he was sliding.

Update: Furcal strikes out swinging on a 2-2 pitch. One out to go. Ramon Martinez pinch hits.

Update: Martinez doubles to the right-center gap. That makes it a one-run game, 6-5, and brings the go-ahead run to the plate in the person of Nomar Garciaparra.

Update: Nomar strikes out swinging at a pitch in the dirt, and the Mets win 6-5. The base running gaffe in the second inning costs the Dodgers. The Mets survive the El Duque injury, and now send Tom Glavine to the mound tomorrow. In the end, the Mets offense was just a little better than the Dodgers, which was true all season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:07 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
You Can't Stop Delgado
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You can't even hope to contain him. with men on first and second and one out, Carlos picks up his fourth hit of the game, a single that scores Reyes. David Wright follows with a bloop double to score Beltran and the Mets are back up on top 6-4 in the bottom of the seventh.

Update: In the bottom of the 8th, the Dodgers just walked Beltran to load the bases for Carlos Beltran. He'll try to reproduce Jeter's feat of last night and go five for five.

Update: Delgado is finally contained as he strikes out to end the inning. The Dodgers are down to their last three outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:35 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Looks Like I Picked the Wrong Inning to Eat Dinner
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The Dodgers scored three runs in the top of the seventh inning to tie the game at four. Marlon Anderson was in the middle of things again as he starts the inning with a bunt single. Nomar topped it off with a double to drive in two and tie the game at four.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:29 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Elbow Room
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Barry Bonds underwent surgery to clean out his elbow.

Barry Bonds had surgery to remove bone chips from his troublesome left elbow that caused the San Francisco slugger pain and swelling throughout this season.

Bonds, who had the operation Monday, said he expects to be ready to resume his offseason workout regimen later this month.

"As soon as I heal in the next few weeks, I will begin my offseason training," Bonds said Wednesday in a posting on his Web site, www.barrybonds.com.

The question is, will anyone sign him?

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:58 PM | Injuries | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
More Delgado
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With Lo Duca at first, Carlos Delgado picks up his third hit of the day, a single that puts runners at first and third with one out for the Mets in the bottom of the sixth.

Update: Wright picks up his first post-season hit, a double down the rightfield line that scores both runners. The Mets take a 4-1 lead on the Dodgers. Lowe is at 90 pitches.

Update: Lowe issues an intentional walk, and Mark Hendrickson comes to face Green. Mark strikes out the former Dodger.

Update: Hendrickson hits Valentin to load the bases.

Update: Mota flies out to end the inning. He'll take the mound in the seventh with a three run cushion.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:52 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Maine Done
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Maine allows a single and a walk in the fifth, and leaves the game with one out in the inning. He threw 80 pitches, 49 for strikes, walked two and struck out five. He got lucky in the second as bad baserunning cost Los Angeles runs. But it wasn't bad for an emergency start. We'll see if the bullpen can keep John's runners from scoring.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:24 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Second Hit
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Carlos Delgado is making the most of his first post-season appearance. He collected both Mets hits so far, his second way up in the scaffolding behind the centerfield fence. That ties the game at one.

ESPN just showed a great slow-motion replay of Delgado's swing. He went down for the ball, swinging the bat more like a gold club. But his eye, arm and bat make a perfect straight line when he meets the pitch, perfect concentration.

Update: Cliff Floyd collects the third hit of the game, another solo shot , this time to right. That puts the Mets on top 2-1. Lowe's strength this season was keeping the ball in the park, as he allowed just 14 home runs all season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:10 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ash Wednesday
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There seems to be large flakes of dust or pollen blowing around Shea Stadium. You can see it on the centerfield camera. ESPN just showed a shot toward the outfield, and it looks like there's a fire coming from the new construction. I bet what I'm seeing is ash.

Kent singles to start the fourth, just as he did in the second.

Update: Maine strikes out two of the next three batters to retire the Dodgers in the fourth. He's how struck out five through four innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:00 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Dodgers Threaten
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Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew single to start the second. Drew is a slow roller on the infield that moves Kent to second base.

Update: I can't believe what I just saw. Martin singles off the wall in the rightfield corner. The ball bounds straight to Green, who makes a perfect throw to the plate to nail Kent. But J.D. Drew was running behind Kent, and he gets tagged out as well! Lo Duca didn't see Drew at first, and tagged him at the last second. Drew wasn't trying to sneak in, he was waved in.

Martin ends up at second, and Anderson drives him in to make the score 1-0 Dodgers. After an intentional walk, all five batters in the inning have reached base.

Update: Anderson's hit was a double.

Update: Maine strikes out Lowe to end the inning.

I noted that the Dodgers didn't seem to score enough runs given their stats. Dodgers fans, did the team lose a lot of runners to base running mistakes this season?

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:29 PM | League Division Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
The Carlos Games
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With two out, Carlos Beltran walks and Carlos Delgado singles to put men on first and third for David Wright.

By the way, today is the 51st anniversary of the Dodgers winning the 1955 World Series, the first championship for Brooklyn.

Update: Wright grounds into a force to end the inning. No score at the end of one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:21 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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The Twins are coming up in the bottom of the ninth trailing 5-2. The bottom of the order, White, Tyner and Bartlett are due up against Street.

Update: White flies out to right. Two more outs to go.

Update: Tyner strikes out swinging. It's up to Bartlett.

Update: Bartlett singles to right to keep the Twins hopes alive. It's the first hit off the Oakland bullpen today in 3 2/3 innings of work.

Update: Bartlett moves up to second base, and Castillo walks to bring the tying run to the plate in the person of Nick Punto.

Update: Punto pops up a 3-2 pitch. Scutaro makes the catch behind third base for the Oakland win.

The Twins now have the Athletics just where they want them. The last two times Oakland went up 2-0 in the division series they lost both series.

The Twins pitchers are doing their job. They've kept the walks low and the Athletics scoring low. Two of today's runs were due more to sloppy fielding. The Athletics pitchers are just a little better. They've given up three homers, but all solo shots. They've only walked five themselves, and spread out the other hits.

The most amazing stat I saw during the broadcast is that the Twins lost seven straight playoff games at the Metrodome. The team with the best record at home this season hasn't taken advantage of their home field advantage. On to Oakland for Friday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:00 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Dodgers/Mets on the Deuce
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Game one of the Dodgers/Mets series will start on ESPN2, then go back to ESPN when the Athletics/Twins game is over.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:58 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Three Run Deficit
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Nathan enters the game with Swisher at third and throws a wild pitch to make the score 5-2 A's in the top of the ninth. Nick doubled twice and scored twice today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:54 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hunter's Huge Mistake
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With a man on first and two out, Mark Kotsay hits a fly ball to shallow center. Hunter runs in to catch it. It looked to me that the ball was going to fall in for a hit, and Hunter appeared to be heading to play it on a hop. But at the last second he dove and completely missed the ball. It rolls all the way to the centerfield fence, and Kotsay ends up with a two-run, inside-the-park home run. The Athletics lead 4-2 at the stretch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:21 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Cuddyer Goes Deep
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Michael Cuddyer leads off the bottom of the sixth with a home run into the left field seats. That cuts the lead to 2-1. Two of the three runs scored by the Twins in this series came on solo shots.

Update: Morneau follows with a massive shot to the upper deck in right to tie the game at two. Loaiza goes two batters too long. Calero comes in and gets out of the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:56 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Bradley-Perry Spat
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I didn't see what caused it, but Milton Bradley and coach Gerald Perry had words in the dugout. Perry looked like he was shouting at Milton, but I just got home a few minutes ago and didn't see what caused the argument. Can anyone fill us in?

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:32 PM | Baseball Jerks | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
RISP Hit
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Scutaro picks up the first hit of the series for either team with runners in scoring position as he follows Nick Swisher's leadoff double with one of his own. Scuarto later scores from third on Jason Kendall's first post-seaon hit. It's 2-0 Oakland in the top of the fifth.

Correction: First hit with runners in scoring position, not the first hit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:24 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Boof's Balls
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Boof Bonser's strike percentage is a little low as he puts men on 1st and 2nd in the second inning. He's struck out two so, but he's also walked one. The Twins pitchers need their superb control to continue to hold the Athletics run totals low.

Update: Bonser strikes out Swisher and gets Scutaro to foul out to end the inning. His ball strike ratio looks better now at 62.5%.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:32 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Baseball Musings Radio Show
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The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EDT. Check out their other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:30 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Hernandez Out for the NLDs
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It's official, Orlando Hernandez has a torn calf muscle. John Maine gets the nod for game one, and Oliver Perez makes the roster. The rotation for round one is Maine, Glavine, Trachsel and TBA. I bet the Dodgers hope Perez starts game four.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 AM | Injuries | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Buck Bumped Out
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Buck Showalter was indeed fired by the Texas Rangers last night.

Showalter was 319-329 with the Rangers, his best season 89-73 in 2004 when they were in playoff contention until the final week after Alex Rodriguez was traded. They backtracked last year with only 79 wins.

"It's not about me, none of this," Showalter said after Sunday's game. "That's something I've always known. It's about the players and the fans and the people I work for."

Showalter didn't last longer than four years in his other managerial jobs. Those teams prospered after he left.

The season after Showalter's four-year tenure ended in New York in 1995, the Yankees won three of the next four World Series. That dominating streak was snapped in 2001 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, the expansion team Showalter had built the three previous seasons.

So the betting money is on the Rangers to win the World Series next year. :-)

Buck's strength as a manager is strategy. He does a great job of knowing how to use players to maximize their chance to succeed. But he's also a micromanager as far as I can tell. He'd be a great bench coach for a manager whose strength is in the personal aspects of the job. As I've written before, Torre and Showalter would be a dream combination. It's too bad Buck can't over come the weakness that causes him to wear out his welcome after a few seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 AM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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I must admit I don't know why you would start the Twins-Oakland game at 1 PM EDT when you have the Mets playing on the east coast. I know the overall ratings will be better this way, but a four PM EDT start allows more Twins fans to see a game and Oakland fans to take a late lunch at a sports bar. The two teams take the field for game 2 this afternoon (or morning) as Esteban Loaiza faces Boof Bonser. Loaiza's post-season experience is brief, but he's only allowed 2.35 ERA in 15 1/3 innings, mostly in relief. One thing working in the Twins favor today is that Loaiza did not pitch well away from Oakland this season, posting a 4-6 record and a 6.08 ERA. He was roughed for six runs in four innings at the Metrodome in April. He's 3-7 at the park in his career with a 5.66 ERA. Boof is making his post-season debut. One of Boof's strengths this season was his ability to get out lefties. With four lefties in the Oakland lineup, that could work in Boof's favor.

The Dodgers and Mets get underway at four PM EDT, but we don't know the identity of the Mets starter yet. Derek Lowe takes on either Orlando Hernandez or John Maine. Lowe pitched the Dodgers to the playoffs down the stretch, going 8-1 with a 2.39 ERA after August 1st. Lowe epitomizes the Dodgers staff; they allow hits but minimize the damage with few walks.

Hernandez and Maine are comparable pitchers. If you look at their time with the Mets, Hernandez posted better strikeout and home run numbers, but Main walked fewer. Fewer ball in play resulted in his for Maine, however. Orlando allowed a .236 batting average, Maine .211.

The Tigers and Yankees have something old and something new going in tonight's game. Rookie of the Year candidate Justin Verlander opposes grizzled veteran Mike Mussina. This will be the eighth post season for Mike. He's only 7-7, but he's suffered from poor run support. He's allowed 50 runs in the playoffs, 47 earned, good for a 3.30 ERA. His teams, however, only scored 51 times with him on the mound. In 128 innings, he's struck out 137 and walked just 29, impressive number for any stretch of that length.

Verlander got off to a terrific start, going 10-4 before the All-Star break. But he became hittable after. His batting average allowed in the first half was .241. After the break it was .300 as the league learned more about him. One of his poor starts in the first half came against New York as they scored six runs in five innings on seven hits and four walks.

Enjoy!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:41 AM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
El Duque Waits Like the Rest of Us
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Orlando Hernandez says he'll try to pitch today:

Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez, who has enjoyed so many memorable Octobers, had his injured right calf in a bucket of ice on the eve of his latest postseason start.

"Hopefully I can pitch," he told Newsday last night. "My plan is to go out there. I think I can do it. Let's see."

The best part of the article is the description of the hospital waiting room:

Earlier, in a waiting room at the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan, Hernandez sat with Ramirez, waiting for the MRI. "It's not good," he said, holding his outstretched right leg. "It's tightening up."

"Mr. El Duque, Mr. El Duque, please write you name for us on this piece of paper," said a hospital worker who entered the room.

"Mr. Hernandez," El Duque corrected her. He signed his name. "That doesn't say El Duque," she said.

"El Duque is not his real name," someone told her.

"Excuse me, is he who I think he is?" asked an older man sitting in the waiting room, looking at Hernandez and holding a newspaper opened to the sports section.

"Yes," someone said.

The man stood, stepped toward Hernandez and shook the pitcher's hand. "Good luck to you," said the man.

El Duque was told that the woman in the hospital lobby was overheard saying she was leaving because an injured Yankee was being treated at the hospital. "I'll never be seen," she said in a huff.

Hernandez laughed. "A Yankee would have had his MRI already," he joked.

Good comedy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:32 AM | Injuries | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 03, 2006
Rivera in the Ninth
Permalink

Due to Jeter's homer, it's not a save situation, but Mariano is on to pitch the ninth.

Update: Inge pops out to first for out number one.

Update: Granderson dumps a single into left. That brings up Polanco.

Update: Polanco grounds to second and Cano, Jeter and Phillips turn the double play to end the game.

The Yankees do what they do best, score lots of runs. Wang pitched well except for one bad inning. With only 93 pitches thrown, I'll bet Torre is thinking of bringing Chien back for game 4.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:28 PM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Jeter Madness
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Derek Jeter collects his fifth hit of the night, a home run over the fence in dead center to put the Yankees up 8-4. He misses the cycle by a triple. The Yankees fans are just going wild, chanting his name well into Abreu's at bat. What hasn't he done in the post season?

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:22 PM | League Division Series | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
Farnsworth's Turn
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Kyle Farnsworth starts the top of the eighth for the Yankees and Guillen draws a walk.

Update: I-Rod takes the first three pitches, the first two for balls. He launches one to left where Matusi catches it for the first out.

Update: Farnsworth strikes out Monroe looking. Two down.

Update: Kyle falls behind Thames 3-0, but works the count full and get Marcus to pop out to end the inning. The Yankees take a 7-4 lead to the bottom of the eighth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:07 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Wang Gone
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Torre pulls Wang with two out in the seventh. Chien threw just 93 pitches and wasn't in any trouble. He bringing in Myers to face Granderson.

Update: Myers allows a home run to Granderson. It's 7-4 Yankees. I just don't understand why Torre didn't stick with Wang at that point.

Update: Proctor comes in and allows a hit to Polanco.

One reason Torre might have replaced Wang early is to bring him back in game 4.

Update: Casey lifts one down the right field line for a single to put runners on first and third with two out.

Update: Ordonez flies out to end the inning, but the bullpen came close to making Torre look like he made a very bad decision.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:34 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Jeter Four for Four
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Damon and Jeter pick up back to back hits with two out in the sixth to put men on second and third. Jeter didn't win the batting title in the regular season, but it looks like he wants to win it in the post season. Abreu grounds one past a diving Polanco to plate both runners and extend the Yankees lead to 7-3. That's it for Robertson, and Polanco looked like the dive hurt his injured shoulder as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:22 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Tigers On the Board
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Craig Monroe hits a ball over the centerfield fence to score the first run of the game for the Tigers. It's a rare long ball against Wang who allowed 12 during the regular season, only five at Yankee Stadium.

Update: Placido Polanco doubles down the right field line to drive in Inge from first, and the Tigers are mounting a comeback. It's 5-2 Yankees with two out in the fifth.

Update: Casey doubles into the left-center gap and the lead is down to 5-3.

Update: Ordonez strikes out swinging to end the inning. The Tigers move into striking distance with four turns at bat left.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:47 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Leadoff Men On
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For the fourth half inning in a row, the lead off man is on. Damon squirts one past the left of Robertson for an infield hit.

Update: Jeter legs out a double on a hit and run, moving Damon to third. The shortstop Guillen covered instead of Polanco, and Jeter pulled the ball by the shortstop.

Update: Abreu smacks one into the right-center gap and drives in Damon and Jeter to put the Yankees up 2-0 in the bottom of the third.

Update: Sheffield goes the other way, the third straight hit into a power alley. The single plates Abreu and the Yankees lead 3-0.

Update: Another power alley shot, this one over the fence as Giambi hits the first home run of this series. It's 5-0 Yankees, and A-Rod becomes a leadoff man, coming up with none on and none out.

Update: A-Rod gets the sixth straight hit of the inning, a line single to left. He misses the power alley, however. Matusi flies out to deep center, and Posada down the rightfield line, Ordonez making a nice catch.

Update: Cano flies out to left to end the inning, but the Yankees bat around and score five runs. Wang returns to the mound with a nice cushion.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:08 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Some Call Me Thames
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Marcus Thames doubles leading off the third, the second leadoff double of the Tigers in as many innings. Inge grounds out to third, holding the runner at second.

Update: Granderson hits the ball on the ground but it finds the hole between first and second to put runners on first and third for Polanco.

Update: Polanco grounds into a double play to end the inning. Jeter had to range to his right to get the ball. He and Cano did a good job turning the DP.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:59 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Giambi Reaches
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Robertson hits Giambi to start the second, bringing up A-Rod.

Update: A-Rod works the count to 3-2. He fouls off a couple of more pitches then lines hard to second. Polanco had to leap to catch the ball. That brings up Matsui.

Update: Matsui flies out on the first pitch.

I'm not sure this alternating left/right lineup is such a good idea versus Robertson. Righties are much more likely to get hits against Nate, so why not put two or three together in the lineup?

Posada, batting right, singles to put men on first and second.

Update: Cano grounds out to third to end the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:47 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ordonez Doubles
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Magglio Ordonez gets a hold of Wang pitch that didn't sink and drives it to the wall in left center for a leadoff double in the second inning.

Update: Guillen walks. That sets up a double play.

Update: I-Rod squares to bunt on the first pitch but takes it for a ball. The runners go on the second pitch. Ivan swings and misses, and Posada throws out Ordonez at third. Magglio was 1 for 5 stealing this season, so if Ivan misses the pitch he was likely to be a dead duck.

Update: Rodriguez strikes out on a pitch in the dirt. Monroe hits the first pitch to short to end the inning.

Wang was having control problems in that inning. Rather than let them play out, Leyland tried to force the offense. In this case, it didn't work.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:38 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Leave Me Alone!
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The Sports Dude came up with a way to get the office staff to leave him alone during afternoon playoff games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 PM | Blogs | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Jeter Strikes Again
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After a Damon ground out, Jeter gets the first hit of the game, a line single to left.

Update: That's all the Yankees get as Robertson pitches an effective first inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ground Wang
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Chien-Ming Wang retires the Tigers in order in the first, two on ground balls. Polanco made the quintessential Wang out, a grounder back to the box.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:24 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Patrick Arnold to Testify?
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Sports Illustrated is reporting that Patrick Arnold received a subpoena to appear before the grand jury investigating charges against Barry Bonds.

The source said that Arnold received the subpoena and should appear in a San Francisco courtroom in the next few weeks. Arnold's lawyer, Rick Collins, would neither confirm nor deny that his client had been subpoenaed.

"I can't say anything on that subject," Collins said and declined further comment. Arnold also declined to comment.

I like quote from Arnold:

"There is a future beyond steroids and its gene doping," he said. "It's the next step. The only way it can be detected now is through a muscle biopsy, though they may be looking for blood markers. They are making great advances and how they keep that out of the hands of people with healthy muscles who use it for performance-enhancing reasons I don't know.

"As drug and performance-enhancing science becomes more and more complicated, it is going to get to a point where you can't police it anymore. People might just have to stop taking sports so seriously."

Of course, if people don't take sport so seriously, there won't be as much money in the games to spend on performance enhancing drugs. There's a bit of a catch 22 there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:04 PM | Cheating | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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The Cardinals don't score in the top of the ninth. Branyan is scheduled to lead off for the Padres trailing 5-1.

Update: Wainwright strikes out Branyan.

Update: Adam does the same to Mike Cameron. One out to go.

Update: Klesko pinch hits and flies out to left. The Cardinals take the opener behind their two big guns, Carpenter and Pujols.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:58 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Only a Double
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Giles doubles with one out, breaking the streak of two straight innings with a one out triple.

Update: Two updates end the threat. The Padres are left with three outs to score at least four runs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:45 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Run Roberts Run
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Dave Roberts triples to deep left center with one out to try to start a Padres rally in the bottom of the sixth. He picked up 13 three-baggers in the regular season, tied for second with Juan Pierre in the NL.

Update: Giles hits a sacrifice fly, not too deep, to center. Roberts barely beats the throw, but San Diego is on the board. It's 5-1 at the end of six innings.

Update: It's deja vu all over again as Branyan triples with one out in the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Carpenter walks Cameron, and that's it for him. Tyler Johnson comes in and hits pinch hitter Bard to load the bases.

Update: Bellhorn pinch hits, and not surprisingly, strikes out.

Update: As the parade of former Red Sox middle infielder continues, Belliard makes the play of the game on Todd Walker. Walker grounds the ball to Belliard's left. He dives for it on the outfield grass, spins and throws from his knees to throw out Todd at first. The threat goes by the boards and the Cardinals still lead 5-1 at the end of seven.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:06 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Lead Extended
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Pujols and Edmonds each pick up their second hit of the game in the fifth inning. A leadoff single by Carpenter leads to another run and a 4-0 lead for the Cardinals halfway through the game. Peavy still doesn't have a strikeout since the first.

Update: Carpenter helps himself with a 10 pitch inning in the bottom of the fifth. It's still 4-0 Red Birds.

Update: Encarnacion leads off the sixth with a single, but Piazza throws him out stealing. The post season just brings out the best in players. Belliard singles off Peavy's leg, and he's successful stealing. It's the fourth straight inning the Cards put on the leadoff hitter with a single.

Update: Molina drives in Belliard with the Cardinals 11th hit. That's it for Peavy who leaves with his team in a 5-0 hole. No rib problems this year, the Cardinals just got the best of him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:40 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Showalter to Go?
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XM MLB Chat notes that Bill Madden of the New York Daily News believes Buck Showalter will be fired by the end of the day.

Update: Here's some background on the story.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:21 PM | Management | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Padres Try to Answer
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The San Diego Padres put the first two on in the bottom of the fourth as Roberts and Giles single. They're trying to cut down the 3-0 Cardinals lead from the top of the inning.

Update: Adrian Gonzalez Ks for the first out.

Update: Piazza grounds into a fielder's choice. He pulled it enough and it was hit slowly enough that the Cardinals didn't have time to turn the 6-4-3 DP, even with Mike running. Men on 1st and 3rd for Branyan.

Update: Carpenter strikes out Branyan to end the inning. The Padres did work the ace, however, getting his pitch count to 70 after four innings. Given the problems with the St. Louis pen lately, this inning may set up the Padres for better luck later in the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:18 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Peavy-Pujols Battle
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Albert Pujols fouled off three pitches in his second at bat against Jake Peavy, but the fourth one he met sailed over the centerfield fence for a two-run homer. Albert did a great job of waiting for his pitch, taking the ones outside the zone and fouling off the close ones. The Cardinals lead 2-0 in the top of the fourth.

Update: The Cardinals keep getting wood on the ball in the fourth and the balls keep falling for hits. Edmonds singles, then Rolen dumps a soft liner into right that he stretches into a double. Peavy's allowed four straight hits to start the fourth and hasn't struck out a batter since the first.

Update: A double play ends the inning. Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen all playing well would be a huge boost for the Cardinals this post season.

Update: Encarnacion swing at a pitch low and outside, but still manages to drive it to the warning track in the left where Roberts runs it down. Edmonds scores from third and the Cardinals lead 3-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:02 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Which Lineup?
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Ben Kabak examines the lineup the Yankees are using tonight to see if it's the best one for the Bronx Bombers.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:58 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
True Brew
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Frank Bundy is very pround he nailed the Brewers won-loss record for 2006. You can read his two-part analysis here and here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:51 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Frog Reviews
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The Sports Frog is hosting reviews of the 2006 season for every MLB team. You can read the Braves review here. Keep your eye out for more.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:47 PM | Team Evaluation | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Dodgers-Mets Preview
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The Dodgers and Mets are more evenly matched than one might think from their paths to the playoffs:

2006 (NL Ranks)DodgersMets
Runs per Game 5.06 (4th) 5.15 (3rd)
ERA 4.23 (4th) 4.14 (3rd)

The Mets are a bit better scoring runs, and a bit better preventing runs. Let's take a closer look at the offenses:

2006 (NL Ranks)DodgersMets
Batting Average .276 (1st) .264 (8th)
OBA .348 (1st) .334 (8th)
Slugging Percentage .432 (6th) .445 (3rd)

It's surprising the Dodgers didn't lead the league in scoring with their ability to get on base and decent power. One problem for Los Angeles was double plays. They grounded into 140, the second most in the NL. The Mets were at the other end of the scale. Their 114 GDPs was 15th in the league.

The Mets power is the big reason they scored so well. With men on base especially, the Mets pounded the ball. The Mets ran the bases extremely well, succeeding in 146 of 181 attempts, better than 80%. So the Mets are very good at getting men on and into scoring position with their power and speed, then driving them around to the plate.

Now for the pitching:

2006 (NL Ranks)DodgersMets
Batting Average Allowed .269 (10th) .253 (2nd)
OBA Allowed .330 (4th) .323 (3rd)
Slugging Percentage Allowed .418 (4th) .407 (2nd)

The Dodgers give up hits but they don't walk many, keeping their OBA allowed low. The Mets give up neither. The strengths of the pitching staff match up well vs. the strengths of the offenses. During the regular season, the Dodgers outscore the Mets 32-29, but the Mets won the series 4-3. That's the kind of LDS I suspect we'll see.

The Mets announced today that Orlando Hernandez is hurt and is doubtful for Game 1. John Maine seems to be the obvious choice. He'll be on four days rest. He's certainly comparable to El Duque. I wonder if Aaron Heilman, who's wanted to start all year, will get the chance?

It's not like the Dodgers own a solid starting staff either. Penny pitched very badly in the second half, Hendrickson was a poor acquisition, and Billingsley just walks too many batters.

I'll call this one for the Mets in five, but with very little confidence. New York's offense is very good, and their ability to not make outs on the bases could be the difference in the series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:40 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Sometimes it Doesn't Pay to be Short
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Roberts starts off the Padres offense with a line drive over a leaping David Eckstein. Since David and I are the same height, he's one of my favorites. But a taller fielder would snag that ball for the first out.

Update: Molina starts a nice 2-6-3 double play on a Giles bouncer in front of the plate and Carpenter escapes the first inning unscathed. It's 0-0 after one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:20 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Peavy Power
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Jake Peavy looks strong in the first inning, retiring the side in order and striking out two, including Albert Pujols. Thirteen of his seventeen pitches went for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:17 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Impatient Hitters
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The Minnesota Twins saw just 99 pitches on the afternoon, only 2.9 per plate appearance. Given that only 57 of the 99 pitches were strikes, there was no reason for them to be swinging early. They allowed Zito to go eight innings, taking the uncertainty of the bullpen out of the game. It seemed to me Minnesota batters swung at many high pitches, and hence a number of fly ball outs. There were 9 ground balls vs. 15 fly balls in the game for the Twins, a very low ratio. For the season, the Twins' GB/FG ratio was 1.5:1.

It's a big win for Oakland. The rest of the Minnesota starters are not as intimidating.

Correction: I meant to write 15 fly balls. It's fixed now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:31 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Bottom of the Ninth
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The Twins go to the bottom of the ninth with Cuddyer, Morneau and Hunter due up. They trail 3-1.

Update: Milton Bradley loses Cuddyer's fly ball in the roof. It lands behind him on the warning track and Michael ends up on third.

Morneau tries Bradley again, lining the first pitch right at him. Bradley catches the ball and holds Cuddyer at third.

Update: Hunter grounds out to second, scoring Cuddyer. It's up to White, who is two for three. White flys out to center to end the game. The A's win 3-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:23 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Oh My God, They're Investigating Kenny!
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Kevin Schoensee just sent this article about the police investigating Kenny Rogers:

In both versions, a 37-year-old man approaches Rogers asking him to give him an autograph and Rogers refuses.

The man becomes upset and begins cursing Rogers then starts banging on his car. Rogers exits the car and confronts the man face to face.

Police are trying to determine what really happened next.

The man said that Rogers grabbed him by his collar but bystanders broke the pair up. However, a witness told police that Rogers and the man just argued but there was no physical contact.

Both versions end with Rogers driving away.

It sounds like the fan is causing trouble. But maybe Kenny should just give out the autograph in the future.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:16 PM | Pitchers | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Hurt So Good
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Crain starts the ninth for the Twins, and Frank Thomas greets him with his second home run of the game. That gives the Athletics a 3-1 lead and a bit of insurance.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:14 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Twins Threaten
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With the score still 2-1 in the bottom of the eighth, Bartlett doubles to start the inning. Kendall tries to pick him off, but the throw is to the leftfield side of second base and Bartlett just sneaks back to the bag.

Update: Castillo grounds softly to third, holding Bartlett at second. One out.

Update: Punto grounds to second, advancing Bartlett to third. Mauer swings at the first pitch and flies out to left.

On the Punto grounder, someone faked out Bartlett, as he stopped halfway between second and third. If Ellis had thrown to third at that point, the A's might have tagged him out. Bartlett's head was not in his base running that inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:07 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Gonzalez to Manage Marlins
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It didn't take long for the Marlins to replace Joe Girardi, hiring Freddi Gonzalez:

Gonzalez, the third-base coach for the Atlanta Braves the past four years, interviewed with the Marlins a year ago after Jack McKeon resigned.

Gonzalez, 42, was born in Cuba and raised in Miami, becoming the first manager in the Marlins organization when they hired him to run their first minor-league team in Erie, Pa., in 1992. Beginning in 1999, he coached third base for 2 ½ years under Marlins manager John Boles.

I wonder if they expect Gonzalez to bring more Cuban fans to the ballpark? It really seems to me that this was the front office not getting their way last year, and looking for an excuse to get rid of Joe. Joe was just stubborn enough to give them an excuse. In a way, I hope he gets the Nationals job, so he can go head-to-head with the Marlins for years to come.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:02 PM | Management | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
White Flight
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Rondell White handles Barry Zito's changeup just fine, knocking out his second extra-base hit of the game. This time, he pulls it, sending it into the leftfield seats for a solo home run. That's it in a quick inning as the game goes to the eighth with the Athletics leading 2-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:52 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Out of the Jam
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The top of the seventh was a strange inning. Thomas reaches on a single to right, but he ran so slowly that he was nearly thrown out by Cuddyer. Chavez then hits a double play grounder to Bartlett, who boots the ball. After a fly out, Santana issues his first walk of the game. Scutaro lines out to center (too shallow for Thomas to score) and Ellis flys out to left. Santana is at 91 pitches through seven innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:48 PM | League Championship Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
El Duque Hurt
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I don't have a link yet, but ESPN just reported on the air that Orlando Hernandez hurt his calf and will undergo an MRI today.

Update: Here's a link.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:37 PM | Injuries | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Five Inning Duel
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The Oakland Athletics lead the Minnesota Twins 2-0 through five innings. In most respects, Santana is outpitching Zito. Johan has struck out seven and walked none; Barry's managed just one K and two walks. Santana's thrown 46 of 63 pitches for strikes; Zito is about even. But Oakland managed to put their three hits together in one inning, and two of them were for extra-bases, including a solo shot by Frank Thomas. Santana is blowing the ball by them except for one inning, while the Twins aren't being selective enough against Zito, and the bad pitches they put in play are going for outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:18 PM | League Division Series | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Twins First Hit
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With two out in the bottom of the fifth, Rondell White brings the Twins fans to life with the first Minnesota hit of the game, a double into the right-center gap. Zito's had walked two up to that point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:15 PM | League Division Series | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Fish Thrown Back
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As expected, the Marlins fired Joe Girardi.

Girardi said he was fired during a brief meeting in his office with team president David Samson, general manager Larry Beinfest and assistant general manager Mike Hill. Loria did not attend.

"They came in and said, 'We're going to make a change,'" Girardi said. He said no reason was given.

"To hash over what happened doesn't make any sense," Girardi said.

Joe's not burning any bridges. There are three teams out there right now who can use a good manager, so Joe will get a chance to show if 2006 was a fluke or not.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:37 PM | Management | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Early Hurt
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Frank Thomas scores the first run of the LDS as he homers off Johan Santana in the top of the second. Zito threw 8 of 14 pitches for balls in the first inning, walking Castillo, but a caught stealing helped get Oakland out of trouble.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:29 PM | League Division Series | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Playoffs Today
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The Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins get the 2006 post season started today with a battle between lefty aces as Barry Zito faces Johan Santana. Zito's pitched well in the playoffs, striking out 32 batters in 32 2/3 innings, walking 11 and allowing just three home runs. That's good for a 2.76 ERA. He's not too tough on left-handed batters, however, something that could work in Minnesota's favor. Santana's been roughed up at times in the playoffs, but pitched 12 strong innings against the Yankees in 2004. His usual great control is missing, having walked 9 in 26 post-season innings.

Another fine pitching duel takes place in San Diego as Chris Carpenter takes on Jake Peavy. Carpenter and Peavy saw their first post-season action in 2005. Carpenter shut down the Padres, going six scoreless innings. Peavy didn't fare as well, allowing 8 runs in 4 1/3 innings.

Jake, however, is on a roll. He only made one bad start in the last two months. Carpenter's made four bad ones in the same period, including his last two.

The evening performance takes place off Broadway as the Tigers visit Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Nate Robertson challenges Chien-Ming Wang. Nate dropped his ERA for the fourth year in a row, finishing with a 3.84 mark. His strikeout, walk and home run numbers aren't much different from last year, but his hits per nine are down. Looks like the Tigers improved the defense behind him. As a left-hander, Robertson should cut down on the Yankees power somewhat. Home field advantage agrees with Chien. He's 11-3 at Yankees stadium this season, and his ERA is 3.03, over a run lower than it is on the road.

Enjoy!

Purchase ALDS tickets.

Purchase NLDS tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:25 AM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Can't Anyone Leak Anymore?
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First Deadspin admits their source was wrong, and now this:

The federal prosecutor overseeing an investigation of steroids in baseball and the attorney for former pitcher Jason Grimsley questioned a news report indicating five players, including Roger Clemens, had used illegal performance-enhancing drugs.

The prosecutor said the report in the Los Angeles Times contained "significant inaccuracies," including the five names in the report.

If you can't believe someone with an agenda who is leaking redacted documents anonymously, who can you believe? It sounds like the media fell for another fake but accurate story.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:01 AM | Cheating | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 02, 2006
Tigers-Yankees Preview
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This ALDS matchup pits the team with the best ERA in the AL vs. the team with the best offense in the AL:

2006 (AL Ranks)TigersYankees
Runs per Game 5.07 (5th) 5.74 (1st)
ERA 3.84 (1st) 4.41 (7th)

The Yankees offense is a real outlier this season. New York scored .37 more runs per game than any other team. There's a bigger difference between the Yankees and the number two team in the majors, the White Sox than between the White Sox and the number eleven team. The worst hitter who is likely to start for the Yankees in the post-season is Melky Cabrera, and he holds a .360 OBA. One through nine, every hitter gets on base at a good clip. There is just no let up for a starting pitcher, no easy out. And on the bench is going to be Sheffield or Giambi or Cabrera, so when the situation is right, Torre's going to have the depth he needs.

The other point about the Yankess offense is it underperformed it's runs created estimate. So they are even better than they look. They can beat you in many ways. They can hit, they can draw walks and they can hit for power. They even are effective stealing bases, stealing at an 80% clip.

The Tigers offense isn't bad. Part of their lower number comes from their park. The Tigers hit the most home runs on the road this season, 122. Combine the extra scoring power with an even better ERA away, and the Tigers picked up the best road record in the AL. In a way, it helps them to play three games at Yankee Stadium. Here's a more indepth look at the offenses.

2006 (AL Ranks)TigersYankees
Batting Average .274 (9th) .285 (2nd)
OBA .329 (12th) .363 (1st)
Slugging Percentage .449 (5th) .461 (3rd)

It seems to me the Tigers had some luck to parlay those numbers into the 5th best runs per game in the AL. They did exceed their runs created estimate by .1 run. It turns out they did really well with a man on third and less than two out. Although they were last in sacrifice flies with 36, they hit .386 in that situation and slugged .584, well above their norms. They produced 222 RBI in 341 chances in that situation.

Here's a more in depth look at the pitching:

2006 (AL Ranks)TigersYankees
Batting Average Allowed .257 (2nd) .262 (4th)
OBA Allowed .321 (3rd) .326 (5th)
Slugging Percentage Allowed .405 (2nd) .413 (3rd)

It seems there should be a smaller gap between the Yankees and Tigers ERAs. The Yankees pitchers were quite unlucky this season with men on base. They allowed a .305 OBA and a .388 slugging percentage with the bases empty. With men on, however, the OBA went up to .355 and the slugging to .447.

In every case this season, the Tigers number reflect good luck and the Yankees numbers reflect some bad luck. This tells me that the difference between the two teams is bigger than the number indicate. A fully healthy Yankees offense can wear away at the best pitchers. Even if they don't score many runs off a good starter, they'll force him out of a game by the seventh on pitch count. The Yankees can score enough runs for Wang, Mussina and the front of the bullpen to survive. I give the Yankees the edge in this series.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:59 PM | League Division Series | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Cardinals-Padres Preview
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The Cardinals and Padres offer a fascinating contrast, an extreme team vs. a balance team:

2006 (NL Ranks)CardinalsPadres
Runs per Game 4.85 (6th) 4.51 (13th)
ERA 4.54 (9th) 3.87 (1st)

The Padres own the best pitching staff in the National League, and one of the worst offenses. This kept them at .500 for most of the season. The Cardinals score a few more runs than they allow. This put them a few games over .500 for the season. Neither team outscores their opponents by much, but they simply approach it in a different direction. This leads me to a first conclusion that the teams are evenly matched. Let's look at the offenses in more detail.

2006 (NL Ranks)CardinalsPadres
Batting Average .269 (4th) .263 (11th)
OBA .337 (5th) .332 (9th)
Slugging Percentage .431 (8th) .416 (14th)

In terms of batting average and OBA, the teams are closer than their ranking indicate. Where they really differ offensively is in their power stats. That may be a bit of an illusion, however, since the Padres are third in the NL in slugging on the road at .443. Their offense really isn't built for PETCO.

Here's a more detailed look at the pitching numbers:

2006 (NL Ranks)CardinalsPadres
Batting Average Allowed .268 (9th) .249 (1st)
OBA Allowed .337 (7th) .312 (1st)
Slugging Percentage Allowed .443 (13th) .404 (1st)

Notice that the biggest weakness of the Cardinals staff, the tendency to give up extra-base hits, is also the weakest park of the Padres game, especially in San Diego. But the Padres pitching shuts down every part of the offensive game. So how will the Padres pitching do in the series? I expect close to their season numbers. The Cardinals own an average offense, so since Padres' pitchers season numbers are by definition against an average offense, they should hold up. Likewise for the Padres offensive numbers. The Cardinals are an average pitching staff, and the average pitching staff is successful against San Diego hitters. So if you compare the Padres batting averages vs. the Padres averages allowed, you see a clear advantage for San Diego.

It also strikes me that San Diego just has more pitching depth. After Carpenter, which Cardinals pitcher do you really trust at this point? It's good the schedule will allow Carpenter to pitch games 1 and 4. You can then possibly bring back Suppan on three days rest. But right now, I'll put my money on Peavy and Young. I'll give this series to the Padres in four.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:23 PM | League Division Series | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)
Scheduling Complaints
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Jeff McArthur writes:

I was wondering if anyone except those of us on the West Coast have noticed that it will be impossible to see any playoff games for our teams this week. All games for Padres, A's, and Dodgers are either 10am or 1pm here. Yankees at 8pm every night and the Mets the other 8pm slot. People here in SD and up in the Bay Area are not so happy.

I'm a bit surprised by this. In the past, they've scheduled a west coast team for a 10 PM start. The networks go with a schedule that brings in the most money, although I would think that a 7 PM PDT start in San Diego would make more than a 4 PM EDT start. However, this schedule is great for those of us who work from home on the East Coast!

What I really don't like is what happened in the LCS last year. Fox showed both games at the same time, allowing you to only watch one. I like being able to see both in their entirety. Thank goodness for TIVO!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:59 PM | Broadcasts | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Alou Out
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The Giants parted ways with Feliple Alou today. Alou made sure no one thought the Giants record was his fault:

"I'm proud of my behavior, my respect to the game, people, to the cities and countries, the flags," Alou said. "I don't like .500. A .500 man to me is mediocrity. You don't choose your tools."

The Giants are just too old. Sabean faces a tough task trying to make this team younger. Unlike the Marlins last year, he doesn't have much valuable talent to trade to build a team of hot prospects.

Bud Selig must be having a cow. One of the most admirable things Bud's done in his tenure as commissioner is encourage minority hirings. With Robinson, Baker and Alou the first three managers to go, that doesn't leave too many minority managers in the game. My guess is Baker will get a job with another club, but Robinson and Alou probably won't due to their age. I wonder if there will be pressure on clubs to fill this void?

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:41 PM | Management | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Winning Ways
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The Hardball Times just published the final win shares data (American League, National League). Win shares puts Jeter and Mauer 1-2 in the American League, and if you look at the measure of Win Shares above bench, Jeter, Mauer and Ortiz are all tied. Note that a big advantage for Jeter over both Mauer and Ortiz is that he played more games than Mauer and Ortiz. If you will, on a per game or per at bat basis, Mauer and Ortiz (and others) are more valuable than Derek. But Jeter is always in the lineup, and there's something to be said for contributing every day.

Note, too, Mauer's excellent defensive contribution. Mauer ranks much higher on defense as a catcher than Jeter does as a shortstop. It's a very tough choice. My MVP ballot would probably look like:

  1. Jeter
  2. Mauer
  3. Ortiz
  4. C. Guillen
  5. Santana
  6. Morneau
  7. Ramirez
  8. Hafner
  9. Sizemore
  10. Mike Young

In the NL, Pujols edged out Carlos Beltran for total win shares in the last week of the season, while Carlos finished first in win shares above bench. Note that Ryan Howard did not rank very high in total win shares, just sixth on the list, behind David Wright of the Mets. A big part of that is park effect. Shea was the second toughest park for run scoring this season. Philadelphia still favors offense, although less than in previous seasons. This is going to pull Howard down while raising Wright and Beltran, despite the fact that Howard hit better on the road. So the win shares ranking of Howard may be too low.

But I don't think the ranking of Beltran is too high. Remove Carlos from Shea, and he hits as well as Ryan, plus he played a great defensive centerfield. Pujols's rank is quite impressive, given that he missed 19 games. So my NL ballot would look like:

  1. Carlos Beltran
  2. Albert Pujols
  3. Ryan Howard
  4. Miguel Cabrera
  5. David Wright
  6. Lance Berkman
  7. Alfonso Soriano
  8. Chase Utley
  9. Jose Reyes
  10. Barry Bonds (for old times sake)

In the AL, I could just as easily put Mauer ahead of Jeter. The playing time does it for me. If Jeter played a less demanding defensive position, I'd put Mauer ahead of him for sure. In the NL, put the top three in any order you like, I won't give you much of an argument. It just seems that people in the discussion on this topic don't give Beltran's defense enough consideration.

And one last thought. The Yankees player with the second highest number of win shares was Alex Rodriguez. He must have done something right during the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:42 PM | Statistics | Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)
Dusty Bin Of History
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The Cubs and Dusty Baker officially parted ways today:

Dusty Baker is out as the Chicago Cubs' manager following a last-place finish and a failure to take the team to the playoffs in his four years.

The Cubs made the announcement Monday, a day after team president Andy MacPhail resigned and the club finished with a 66-96 record.

My biggest problems with Dusty were not having anyone ready in the bullpen in case Mark Prior tired in game 6 of the 2003 NLCS, and his desire for middle infielders who can't contribute offensively. We'll see how well he does with his next organization.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:25 PM | Management | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
Deadspin Corrects Error
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Deadspin now says that its source that put Chris Mihlfeld's name in the Jason Grimsley affidavit was wrong.

So, a clearing of the decks, a mea culpa: We were wrong to trust our source's information, and we were wrong to print their claim that he was in the document. We apologize to Mihlfeld and deeply regret the error.

And I apologize for linking to the original story. Out the source, so no one trusts him/her again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:05 PM | Cheating | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Rematches
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MetsBlog.com remembers the 1988 NLCS:

...i was a happy-go-lucky child growing up...after the fall of 1988, i became quite cynical and a huge skeptic and i blame that series, and specifically Mike Scioscia, for making me this way...

It turns out there are lots of possible rematches this year. The Twins and Athletics faced off in 2002. St. Louis and San Diego played just last year. The Mets and Cardinals met in the 2000 NLCS.

The A's and Yankees played a number of memorable ALDS games, but also met in the 1981 ALCS. Detroit and Minnesota faced each other in the 1987 ALCS.

The Padres lost the World Series to both the Yankees and the Tigers. The Mets and Yankees played a subway series in 2000, the last time the Yankees won the fall classic. The Dodgers defeated the Twins in 1965, and the Athletics fell to the Dodgers in 1988 (although they won in 1974). The Cardinals are the only NL team with long term success against the Yankees in the World Series. And the Yankees/Dodgers World Series are the stuff of legend. The Twins and Cardinals played the first World Series in which all the games were won by the home team in 1987. And Detroit won an exciting seven game series against St. Louis in 1968 (although they lost in 1934). And who can forget the 1973 World Series in which the Mets took Oakland to game seven before falling, losing the last two games on the road.

There's lots of opportunities for retribution this post season.

Correction: The Tigers/Cardinals played in 1968, not 1967.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:46 AM | Post Season | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Athletics-Twins Preview
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The Oakland Athletics and the Minnesota Twins open the playoffs tomorrow afternoon. This is one of two series in the opening round that pit two evenly matched teams against each other. Both sport good pitching staffs and middle of the road offenses:

2006 (AL Ranks)AthleticsTwins
Runs per Game 4.76 (9th) 4.94 (8th)
ERA 4.21 (4th) 3.95 (2nd)

Part of that great Twins ERA was Francisco Liriano, who is not pitching in the post season. Another big part of that ERA is the relief staff, who posted a 2.91 ERA. The Twins are very good at winning six inning games. If you don't score early and often, Minnesota can shut you down once the starter wears out.

Let look more closely at the offense defense. First the batters:

2006 (AL Ranks)AthleticsTwins
Batting Average .260 (13th) .287 (1st)
OBA .340 (7th) .347 (5th)
Slugging Percentage .410 (14th) .425 (8th)

The Twins and the Athletics get to the same place in different ways. The Twins are a singles hitting team. Minnesota hit 1156 singles in 2006, the most in the majors by 72! The Oakland Athletics walk. Only the Red Sox drew more free passes in 2006. Despite the difference in slugging percentage, the teams hit for about the same amount of power, since the difference between slugging and batting average is about the same for the opponents. The Twins hit more doubles and triples, the Athletics more home runs. The Twins move runners with hits. The A's wait for the three run homer.

How do the pitching staffs stack up to these offenses?

2006 (AL Ranks)AthleticsTwins
Batting Average Allowed .271 (8th) .267 (5th)
OBA Allowed .338 (9th) .312 (1st)
Slugging Percentage Allowed .422 (4th) .423 (6th)

And this is where the Twins win the Series. The strength of the Twins staff plays exactly against the strength of the Athletics offense. The Twins pitchers take away the walk from the Oakland Athletics. Twins pitchers issued 18 walks in 87 innings against Oakland this season. That's 1.86 BB per 9. Oakland averages over 4 walks per game. That held the Oakland offense to a .288 OBA; when you don't walk, your OBA approaches your batting average. Too few baserunners meant Oakland scored just 3.5 runs per game. Now, the season series was still close, but the Twins won it 6-4. That's exactly the ratio Minnesota needs for this series.

The difference in the teams is that the Twins are much more capable of putting a pitch in play for a hit. Since the Athletics won't be seeing many pitches to take, that gives a decided advantage to the Twins. Minnesota is my pick to win this series in four or five games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:27 AM | League Division Series | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Final Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 01, 2006
Short No-Hitter
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The Red Sox game today was rain delayed and rain shortened. But out of all that dampness came five no-hit innings from Devern Hansack:

Devern Hansack hopes he made a lasting impression on the Boston Red Sox in the final game of the season.

Hansack pitched no-hit ball for five innings before Sunday's game was called because of rain, giving Boston a 9-0 win over Baltimore - but not giving the rookie official credit for a no-hitter.
"I wasn't disappointed because nobody can stop the rain," he said.

Hansack, who worked as a lobsterman and pitched in his native Nicaragua the past two years, earned his first major league win. The 28-year-old righty would like it to lead to an invitation to spring training next season.

After the game, Hansack shook Theo Epstein's hand and heard Boston's general manager say, "Congrats, man. I'm proud of you."

While not an official no-hitter, the record book will list him under no-hitters less than nine innings. It's a nice end to a very disappointing season for the Red Sox

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 PM | Games | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
Changes in Chicago
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The first changes in the Cubs organization came this afternoon:

The final day of the 2006 season brought massive changes to Wrigley Field on Sunday, as the Cubs turned a page on one of the worst years in recent memory.

Team president Andy MacPhail resigned after 12 years on the job, and John McDonough, senior vice-president of marketing and broadcasting, was named interim president, with no timetable offered for when the promotion might become permanent.

And while Dusty Baker appears to be gone, it looks like Hendry will stay:

"These are the greatest fans in the history of sports," McDonough said. "We have not won the World Series in 98 years. We have a terrific general manager in Jim Hendry. Jim will get all the resources that he needs, and it's time to win."

Why not clean house all together? Is a combination of another manager and Hendry going to do any better? It seems the Cubs believe that Baker got the players and just couldn't manage them to a winner. Has Hendry really gotten him the players, however? Yes, he brought in Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, drafted Mark Prior, but he still goes out and gets players like Neifi Perez, low OBA guys who drag down the offense. Not many managers can win with too many players like that. Maybe a better manager will tell Hendry he doesn't want that type of hitter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:51 PM | Management | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Girardi Closer to Gone
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ESPN is reporting:

Despite a season that far exceeded expectations, the Florida Marlins will move quickly this week to dismiss manager Joe Girardi and name a successor, a source familiar with the Marlins situation told ESPN Insider's Jerry Crasnick.

According to the source, the chances are "99 out of 100" that Girardi's replacement will be Braves third-base coach Fredi Gonzalez.

I really can't wait to hear Girardi's side of this story. It will be very interesting to see next year how Joe does with a new team vs. how Beinfest does with a new manager. My gut here is that the Marlins are making a mistake.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:34 PM | Management | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
Padres Win the West
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Trevor Hoffman was not his usual stellar self, but he was good enough to save the game for San Diego and send the Padres to the NL West championship. He allowed solo shots to Tracy and Jackson, increasing his home runs allowed this year by 50%! Luckily, the Padres hurt Brandon Webb's Cy Young chances by scoring seven runs in four innings, raising his ERA to 3.10. Congratulations to San Diego on their West win! They'll face the Cardinals at home on Tuesday. This is the series that gets the extra day off, so the game 1 starter can come back for game four on normal rest.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Dodgers Win
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The LA Dodgers sweep the Giants to end the season 88-74. Not the best, but not a bad record for a playoff team. The Padres are winning 7-4 in the ninth inning, so if Hoffman can be his usual stellar self, the Padres should take the West. Anything can happen, but it looks like the Dodgers are on their way to New York.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:59 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Twins Win the Central
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Kenny Rogers, pitching in his second inning of relief, comes undone as the Royals score two runs on three hits and two walks. The Tigers fail to score in the bottom of the 12th. They become the Wild Card and travel to New York, while the Twins stay home to host the Oakland Athletics, in a rematch of the 2002 ALDS.

Through games of August 7th, the Tigers were 76-36, Minnesota 65-46, 10 1/2 games back. The Twins go 31-20 while the Tigers fall to 19-31. It's not the most colossal fall of all time (after all, Detroit did make the playoffs), but it's certainly a memorable one.

Congratulations to the Twins for winning the Central, and to Joe Mauer for winning the batting title with a .347 mark.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:49 PM | Division Races | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
This One Goes to Eleven
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The Tigers are batting in the bottom of the eleventh, still tied at 8. Ordonez singles with one out to put the winning run on base.

Update: Guillen singles to right center. The throw to third goes past the bag and Guillen reaches second, taking out the GDP. Clevlen came in to pinch run for Ordonez, allowing the try for third base. The Royals walk I-Rod to pitch to Inge.

Update: The Twins came goes final, Minnesota wins 5-1.

Update: Inge strikes out swinging after hitting two fouls that looked like hits when they left his bat. That brings up Granderson to try to win the game. The Royals make a pitching change. Gobble runs in from the pen.

Update: Granderson strikes out looking. It's the sixth time Gobble struck him out. Curtis does have two hits off Jimmy, both home runs. The teams go to the 12th.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:06 PM | Games | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Florida Finishes in a Flourish
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It took eleven innings, but the Marlins win their final game of the season, a 3-2 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. An infield single by Jason Wood with the bases loaded drives in the game winner. Florida finishes 78-84, in fourth place in the NL East. That's about 18 games and one place higher than every one expected. The finish with a better record than seven other NL teams and were in the wild card race until about ten games to play. Both Beinfest and Girardi did great jobs. It's too bad they don't get along better. We'll wait for an announcement on Joe's future.

Willis left the game early with a sore left triceps muscle. He has a long time to heal.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:32 PM | Games | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Toronto Finishes Second
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The Blue Jays hold off the Yankees to take the last game of the season 7-5. The win means the Blue Jays finish in second place, breaking an eight year streak of second place finishes by the Red Sox.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:25 PM | Games | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
Shutting Down the Offense
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The Cincinnati Reds folded their offense and went home after being eliminated by the Cardinals win yesterday. For the second day in a row, they are shutout by the Pirates, this time 1-0. Freddy Sanchez finishes his season at .344, beating Cabrera by five points as he finishes at .339. The Fish and Phillies are still playing, but Cabrera is out of the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:06 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Royals Comeback
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Once again, the Royals come back against the Tigers after falling behind early. The Tigers led 6-0 after three, but Jones is on in the top of the eighth with the score 7-6 Tigers. He gets a grounder to third, with men on first and second. Inge, however, doesn't set himself and throws the ball past second as he goes for the double play. The Royals score the third run of the inning and tie the game at seven.

The Twins are up 3-1 on Chicago, so Detroit likely needs this win to take the division. It's disappointing that Bonderman wasn't able to hold a big lead early. If KC scores like this against him, what are the Yankees going to do?

Update: After a foul popup, German walks to load the bases, then DeJesus beats out an infield single to give Kansas City an 8-7 lead.

Update: The Tigers get out of the inning without further damage, but they are down to six outs to get one run for a tie.

Update: Matt Stairs hits a long home run down the rightfield line to tie the game at eight.

I have to say the Tigers announcers are going nuts. It's been a lot of fun listening to them on the TV broadcasts this season. After a few years of lousy baseball in Detroit, they're having a wonderful time calling games this season.

Update: The Tigers put two more on but don't score. They go to the ninth tied at 8.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:45 PM | Games | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Astros Last Three Outs
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Bob Wickman is on to pitch the ninth with Atlanta leading 3-1. The top of the order is up for Houston.

Update: Wickman strikes out Taveras to start the ninth.

Update: Lamb grounds out to shortstop, and the season is up to Berkman.

Update: Berkman hits a hard line drive to right, but it hangs up for Francouer who makes the catch. The Astros just ran out of steam. They made a tremendous effort to take this season to the wire, but it was just too big a lead to overcome.

The St. Louis fans are standing and cheering. Congratulations to the Cardinals on another NL Central title!

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:35 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Season Over
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The Devil Rays and Indians are the first teams to end the 2006 season. The Indians win 6-3 to finish on a upnote in what was an otherwise disappointing season. Cleveland built this team toward winning this year, but things just didn't click. The defense fell apart early, and the non-strikeout pitchers signed over the winter were in trouble. But the team pitched well over the last two months, so that's a bright spot for next season.

Tampa Bay loses 101 games. New ownership appears to be going with a more youthful team, which one hopes pays off in the long run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:27 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Mauer Doubles
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Joe Mauers doubles to raise his average to .347. Jeter is 1 for 4 at .344, Cano is 2 for 3 at .343. It looks like Mauer will win the title at this point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:25 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros Score
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Smoltz is out and McBride starts the seventh. The Astros put together three singles by Taveras, Lamb and Berkman to cut the lead to 3-1 with none out.

Update: McBride falls behind Scott 3-0, but comes back to strike Luke out for the first out of the inning.

Update: McBride gets ahead of Huff 0-2, but Aubrey works the count to 3-2 before striking out. Burke will bat against Tyler Yates.

Update: A flyout to center ends the inning. Meanwhile in St. Louis, Mike Rivera hits a solo shot to extend the Brewers lead over the Cardinals to 5-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:07 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Astros DP
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The Astros return the favor and pick up a fly out double play of their own. The Braves loaded the bases with one out in the bottom of the fifth. McCann flies out to centerfield, and Taveras throws out Renteria at the plate to keep Houston three runs down. With the Cardinals losing early, we'll see if it lights a fire under the Astros offense.

Update: A single and walk put Astros at first and second with one out in the top of the sixth. Smoltz is at about 100 pitches, so he could be tiring.

Update: After a slow roller puts runners at second and third with two out, Palmeiro comes up to pinch hit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:43 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Cano Comes On
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Robinson Cano is two for two today to raise his average to .344. Jeter is 1 for 3, still at .345, and Mauer is 0 for 1, still at .346.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:40 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Reyes Starts
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At the last minute, La Russa changed his mind and started Anthony Reyes instead of Chirs Carpenter. Maybe he figured with the Astros losing, he could risk saving Carpenter for game one of the NLDS. That way, Carpenter can start twice in that series. And if the Astros come back and the Cardinals lose, he has Carpenter to face the Giants tomorrow.

Update: Prince Fielder takes advantage of the change, as Fielder smacks his 28th home run of the season, a two run shot for a 2-0 lead.

Update: Jenkins follows after an out with a solo shot to put the Cardinals down 3-0.

Update: Hart triples, and Bell singles him in to make the score Brewers 4, Cardinals 0, still in the top of the first.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:25 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Sanchez on Top
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Freddy Sanchez came into the day with a three point lead in the NL batting race over Miguel Cabrera. He's two for two so far, raising his average to .345. Miguel is 0 for 2, so that likely gives the title to Sanchez. What a gem in an otherwise awful season for the Pirates! He also knocked out 53 doubles, which leads Luis Gonzalez by one. A great season for someone the Pirates didn't tag as their regular third baseman.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:20 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Who Needs Pitching?
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For the second game in a row, the Mets offense is pounding the Nationals pitching. New York scored six in the second inning after pushing across thirteen runs yesterday. And just for good measure, they've shutout Washington for 15 straight innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:11 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Another Early Lead
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For the third game in a row, one of the teams in the Royals/Tigers series is off to a big lead. The Tigers couldn't hold it on Friday, and they fell short in their comeback on Saturday.

Today, Detorit goes up 6-0 after three innings, but the Royals score two in the top of the fourth as they try a comeback once again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Good Play, Bad Throw
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Mike Lamb makes a nice pick on a ball down the third base line with men on first and second. He steps on the bag but he did not set himself to throw. Instead of a double play, the ball sails past first and Chipper Jones scores from first, with Andruw ending up at third. It's 3-0 Braves in the bottom of the third.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:01 PM | Games | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
AL Batting Race
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Jeter is 1 for 2 so far today, keeping his average at .345. The Twins start in about 15 minutes. Mauer is in the lineup as the designated hitter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:55 PM | Players | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Short Outing from Dontrelle
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Dontrelle Willis only went 1 1/3 innings today. Did anyone see why? Was he hurt?

Update: Willis was removed due to an injury, but we don't know what happened.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:50 PM | Pitchers | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Braves Draw First Blood
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Atlanta scores one run without a hit in the bottom of the first. A throwing error by Burke at second base puts a runner at second. A sacrifice and a fielder's choice later, the Braves lead by one.

Why isn't Biggio in the lineup?

Update: Burke doubles to put runners at 2nd and 3rd with none out in the second. That helps make up for the error.

Update: Francoeur makes two great plays in one. He rushes in to make a diving catch on a Humberto Quintero sinking liner to right, then jumps to his feet and makes a good throw to the plate to nail Huff trying to tag. Francoeur was shallow when he made the catch, I'm not sure why Huff tried to score.

The score is still 1-0 Braves going to the bottom of the second.

Update Francoeur does damage from the offensive side as well, leading off the bottom of the second with a home run well into the left field stands. It's 2-0 Braves.

Update: Sampson just made an interesting play. Ward hit a liner straight at Sampson. The ball knocked the glove off Chris' hand, but Sampson was able to grab the ball with his bare hand for the out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:21 PM | Games | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Games of the Day
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In what could be the penultimate day of the regular season, the most important games take place in Atlanta and St. Louis. The Astros are in a must win situation as they start the day off in Atlanta. Once again, Sampson is the scheduled starter. I don't think he'll bring Oswalt back on two days rest. Sampson gave the Astros 3 2/3 solid innings in the makeup game at Philadelphia. He seems to be the logical choice.

The Braves counter with John Smoltz. Smoltz had a great year at home, striking out 124 in 123 1/3 innings and posting a 3.06 ERA. Lefties gave Smoltz trouble this year, however, and Houston is likely to have four in the starting lineup.

In St. Louis, the Cardinals don't need to win today, but it would prevent a makeup game tomorrow. They send their best to the mound, Chris Carpenter. La Russa left him in too long in his last start, leading to six runs in seven innings. Starting today also means he won't be able to go until game 2 of the NLDS on Friday, if the Cardinals get in. If the rotation holds up and the Cardinals don't clinch today, it looks like Reyes pitches against the Giants on Monday and the if needed, Marquis in Houston on Tuesday. Cardinals fans better hope they clinch this afternoon.

Also in competition with Carpenter is Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks. Webb goes for his 17th win, which would give him the NL lead. He's also number one in ERA, and that combination should be a powerful reason to vote him the Cy Young award. If you need another reason, he's posted 22 win shares, the most among NL pitchers. He'll try to spoil the Padres bid for home field in the first round of the NL playoffs. He hasn't pitched his best against San Diego this year. In four starts, he's allowed a 3.81 ERA against the Padres. They are one of only three teams to hit more than one home run off Webb.

Enjoy!

Purchase ALDS tickets.

Purchase NLDS tickets.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:45 AM | Matchups | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Names Leak Out
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Earlier in the year we tried to figure out the names in the Grimsely affidavit. It turns out sources were just waiting to take attention away from the playoffs:


Roger Clemens, one of professional baseball's most durable and successful pitchers, is among six players allegedly linked to performance-enhancing drugs by a former teammate, The Times has learned. The names had been blacked out in an affidavit filed in federal court.

Others whose identities had been concealed include Clemens' fellow Houston Astros pitcher Andy Pettitte and former American League most valuable player Miguel Tejada of the Baltimore Orioles.

Everyone names denies the allegations. They point to Grimsley's own denial of the accuracy of the affidavit:

Edward Novak, Grimsley's lawyer, did not return calls. Previously, he publicly disputed the claims investigators made in the affidavit, saying his client did not volunteer the names of any teammates. He said federal agents asked Grimsley to wear a recording device to gather evidence against San Francisco Giants slugger Barry Bonds and that Grimsley refused.

Grimsley was not arrested and has not been charged. Since June, he has complained to friends that federal agents attributed statements and disclosures to him that he didn't make.

Pettitte is the name that surprised me. There's been speculation about Clemens for a while, and Tejada's name came up in connection with Palmeiro. I've never heard rumors about Pettitte before. It makes you wonder if the Yankees knew something when they let him go.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 AM | Cheating | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
Offense in the Red
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After being eliminated from playoff competition yesterday, the Cincinnati Reds can blame an underperforming offense. The runs created formula predicted the Reds to score 4.96 runs per game; they scored 4.65. There are three things which might account for this:

  1. They hit many more home runs with the bases empty than with men on base.
  2. They hit poorly with runners in scoring position.
  3. Their aggregate lineup was a bit funky.

I believe the first two account for most of the problem, but look at how the lineup shook out during the season. The best hitter in the lineup is in the six hole, while one of the worst is in the three hole. The thing about having that good a hitter that far down in the lineup is that the pitcher will come up with men on base too often. I know lineups don't matter that much, but the construction of this one left something to be desired.

If the Reds lived up to their runs projection, they score about 48 runs more. That's four or five games in the standings, which puts them in the playoffs. However, they also over performed their Pythagorean projection of wins by five games, so overall their luck evened out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 AM | Team Evaluation | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
No You Take It!
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Neither the Tigers nor the Twins appear to be able to seal the deal on the AL Central. The teams gave each other ample opportunities to put away the division, but instead the Tigers are on a four-game losing streak and the Twins fell in three of their last four contests. It's not like the teams are resting, putting their triple A lineups on the field. For example the Detroit offense if playing the best it has in a while. They've scored 23 runs in the three games. But their solid pitching hasn't shown up, allowing 33 runs in those games. The teams' strength isn't exactly tuning up into the playoffs.

With the Twins, their offense, scored just 12 runs in their last four games while allowing 17. For the month they averaged 4.8 runs per game. They've been totally shutdown by good starting pitching (scroll to the bottom). They've hit .218 against the opponent starters in the last four games without drawing a walk. Often in the playoffs, you face a team with good starting pitching. The Twins aren't exactly striking fear into any of those teams right now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:34 AM | Division Races | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Sunday Update
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The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:55 AM | Statistics | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)