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A few days ago Jon Heyman explained why he voted no for McGwire on his Hall of Fame ballot. Now Mike Lefkow explains why he is voting yes.

Not that it matters when choosing whom to vote for, but McGwire is a decent man whose image has taken a much tougher beating than he deserves. He was a doting father to his son, Matthew. I don't ever remember him showing up late to games, not hustling or being arrested. He made the Maris family an endearing part of the 1998 homer chase.

If he used steroids, and the evidence suggests that he did, it was for the same reason athletes in all sports in all eras have used whatever enhancements were available at the time -- to improve their performances to maximize their value and, yes, help their teams.

So he'll get my vote for the Hall of Fame, 14 more times if I have to. It's not an issue I'm wrestling with anymore. He deserves enshrinement, and I hope he can enjoy it if that day occurs.

I don't buy this argument at all, however:

Not voting for McGwire means you had better leave Ripken and Gwynn off your ballots, too. They played during the steroids era. Ripken played in a record 2,632 consecutive games. Can we be positive Ripken didn't use any banned substances to keep himself in the lineup day-after-day for all those years? Not voting for McGwire is singling him out, making him the poster boy for the 1,500 players or so that Gammons estimates used illegal substances between 1986-2004.

There's really no comparison here. Besides, Gwynn was too fat to have taken steroids. :-)

Aubrey Huff reached an agreement with the Orioles.

The Orioles tried unsuccessfully to lure free-agent slugger Carlos Lee to Baltimore and also were unable to complete a deal for Atlanta Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche.

Their offseason search for an impact hitter produced little but frustration for the past month and a half, but that changed early yesterday morning. At about 2 a.m. yesterday, the Orioles agreed in principle on a three-year, $20 million deal with free agent Aubrey Huff, several industry sources confirmed.

Huff, a 30-year-old who can play first and third base and both corner outfield spots though is primarily valued for his bat, is expected to take a physical in Baltimore this week, possibly Wednesday. The deal will be finalized and announced if he passes his physical.

The question in my mind, is Huff really an impact player? The answer is clearly no. He peaked at ages 26 and 27, and really hasn't been that good since. He put up two 20 win share seasons at that age, and hasn't come close since. At age 30, I don't expect him to get suddenly better.

But the Orioles are really just spinning this as an impact signing. Hitters with decent stats are getting contract in the in high teens per year, not $20 million over three years. The Orioles were scraping the bottom of the barrel here, and trying to make the best of it. It's a typical Baltimore move of the last few years, picking up a player who was once good and now has limited upside. It does little to improve the team.

The Randy Johnson deal keeps running into snags.

The Yankees' possible trade of Randy Johnson to the Diamondbacks, a deal that appeared to be gaining steam toward the end of last week, has slowed over the structuring of a potential contract extension for Johnson, according to a person with knowledge of the negotiations. As part of an agreement for waiving his no-trade clause, Johnson is looking for an extension, but the Diamondbacks, who already owe Johnson about $40 million in deferred money, apparently are looking for a way to factor some of that cash into the extension, the source said. Arizona also is trying to convince the Yankees to kick in some of Johnson's $16 million salary for next season.

But if the Yankees are going to include money in the trade, they want at least three players back - either all bona fide prospects or two top prospects and a major leaguer who would help them this year, another baseball official said.

It's struck me that all three sides in this deal know what they want to get out of the deal, and all are willing to walk away. My guess is the deal hinges on how much Johnson wants to play in Arizona vs. how much money he wants to make doing it. Arizona appears to be willing to part with the players if Johnson doesn't demand too much of a contract.

The Twins superstar trio wins the Pioneer Press Sports Figures of 2006.

Usually, we name only one figure. But how do you separate these three? All had a larger-than-life impact on the Twins' entertaining season.

It's interesting how all three wound up where they are today. There was no grand plan. Instead, circumstances brought them together at just the right time.

Santana spent four years toiling in the minor leagues for the Houston Astros. The book on him was: hard-thrower who almost never uses his change-up. The Twins projected him as maybe a No. 3 starter.

Morneau was supposed to be the Twins catcher of the future. Then he hurt his elbow and for a while became a man without a position.

When Joe Mauer was drafted No. 1 overall in 2001, a lot of people yelped in protest. Exactly why, they wanted to know, didn't Terry Ryan take pitcher Mark Prior?

But here they are. And, all in all, everything seems to have worked out pretty well.

Michael Klitzing compares the Padres to Charlie Bucket.

The Padres haven't been as active (read: insane) as others teams this offseason, and I understand why that might not sit well with their fans.

But building a winning franchise has rarely involved throwing superstar money at average players. The Padres are instead using a model that helped the Detroit Tigers reach the World Series last season: add a new manager and a veteran pitcher to a young team and hope those kids develop fast.

It remains to be seen if Greg Maddux will have the Kenny Rogers effect (I know a few local cameramen who hope he won't) but even if he doesn't, at least signing a proven veteran to a one-year deal (with a player option for 2008) isn't as stupid as throwing $126 million of guaranteed money at a guy who admits to listening to John Mayer.

It could be that the Padres are developing more like the Athletics. Good enough to be in contention and win most years, but not good enough to go deep in the playoffs.

The Day by Day Database now contains game logs back to 1967. Check out the Red Sox of that season. You can click on Tony C's name to see when his injury occurred and the ominous HBP.

The Star-Tribune details the planning going on to move people in and out of the Twins new stadium:

The new Ballpark Implementation Committee, which was created to oversee infrastructure issues at the stadium, has met twice, but officials from Hines Interests, the Texas company that has plans to develop much of the area around the ballpark, have not attended.

"No one's in charge," said Chuck Leer, a developer who headed a team that recommended a series of design guidelines for the stadium and surrounding area.

"The irony about this is everybody says this can't be another Metrodome. Some of the things are better at the Metrodome."

Billfer at the Detroit Tigers Weblog notes that the Tigers lineup is so balanced, the difference between the best and worst lineups in negligible.

Ryan Howard fired his agent, Larry Reynolds. Larry is the brother of Harold Reynolds. It's not unusual for players to fire their agents once they turn out to be stars and are looking for a big pay day. Agents go after this type of players, saying that so and so never got a big deal but I have. Howard hasn't decided on a new agent yet, but he's close to Albert Pujols and Jimmy Rollins, and both use the same agency.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is already using his Red Sox fame to pitch products:

The Japanese baseball star, also known as "Dice-K," who the Sox paid $103 million to acquire has recorded a Japanese commercial hawking Asahi Super Dry beer, fully dressed in Red Sox regalia, showing that his star power in the Far East has already lent marketing clout to his new team. The endorsement happened without the involvement of the Red Sox, under rules that give Major League Baseball control over the team's trademarks outside New England .

Those rules aside, Sox executives believe there is a big market in Japan and locally for endorsements involving the team and Matsuzaka, and that their new pitcher will boost the team's popularity in Japan past that of a certain pinstripe-wearing rival with a Japanese player of its own.

"We want to be the team of Japan. The Yankees are very popular over there because of [Hideki] Matsui, but now we think we can get in over there as well," said Sam Kennedy , the Red Sox' senior vice president of sales and marketing. Matsui , the left fielder the New York Yankees snagged in 2003 from Japan, remains popular there and has several endorsement deals.

This will make the Matsui-Matsuzaka matchups even more exciting! The winner gets the best Japanese endorsement deals! :-)

The Day by Day Database now goes back to the turbulent year of 1968. Even though batting averages were low that year, OBAs were pretty good. And ERAs were very good. Be sure to click on Bob Gibson's name to see all the zeros in the runs column.

The Daily Lancer looks at the Gil Meche contract in terms of the Zito deal.

The Day by Day Database now is complete from 1969 on. This means the entire division era is available for research. Here's the list of leaders in home runs in that time. No real surprises there. Here's the leaders in ERA. Jim Palmer just beats out Pedro Martinez among starters.

In the next couple of weeks, we should be able to push this back to 1957, giving us 50 years of day by day statistics.

NL Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez is out of the winter league with a sore shoulder:

Hanley Ramirez, this year's top rookie in the National League, will miss the rest of the Dominican winter league season because of a left shoulder strain, but the Florida Marlins shortstop is expected to be ready for the start of spring training.

There's no details on what caused the soreness.

Jon Heyman publishes his Hall of Fame ballot, and his reasons for leaving McGwire off:

Some will claim steroids were not disallowed at the time, and that, of course, is 100 percent false. There was no testing for them during McGwire's career, and no spelled-out punishment. But they were neither permitted in baseball nor legal in our society.

Some will say that everyone did them, and I'll agree that many did do them. But I will say first that not everyone did do them, and most who did got away with it. While McGwire has never failed a test or confessed, in my mind he is caught. So on my ballot, his box is blank.

Every vote requires thought and judgment, and it's hard to think any of other explanation for McGwire's 70 home runs or his no-comment stance beyond steroids. If anyone can come up with something else plausible, I'm all ears. Until then, McGwire doesn't get my vote.

So Jon is not keeping Mark out for one year. Heyman won't vote for McGwire until there's evidence to convince the writer that Mark didn't cheat. I wonder how many other writers will take this stand?

MetsBlog.com quotes Omar Minaya on the Barry Zito deal. Minaya was not willing to go longer than five years for a pitcher, sound thinking.

Alex Belth rounds up news about Bobby Murcer and the Randy Johnson trade.

Steve Lombardi writes:

I have a question that I hope you can help me with - it's been mentioned recently that hitters, for the most part, control the ride on batted ball types over pitchers and their tendencies. However, how does it work for contact hitters and strikeout pitchers? Who wins that battle - in the non-batted ball contest? Anything you can share would be appreciated. Thanks and regards, Steve Lombardi

The Day by Day Database contains batter vs. pitcher matchups back to 2000. Using that data, I selected 20 low strikeout hitters and 20 high strikeout pitchers. Here are strikeout percentages (100*K/PA) for various combinations:

Test	K Percentage
Overall MLB	16.75%
Best Batters vs. All Pitchers	7.67%
Best Pitchers vs. All Batters	24.53%
Best vs. Best	11.72%

The best vs. best comparison resulted in 403 K in 3438 plate appearances. It certainly appears that the contact hitters "win" the battle against the strikeout pitchers. Maybe that should be a strategy. When you go up against Clemens, send up a lineup of batters that don't strike out often.

Update: TangoTiger writes in the comments:

Studes pointed out on my blog that the Odds Ratio method works pefectly here.

Following the step-by-step on my blog, I get a matchup expectation of 11.8%, which compares mighty favorably to the actual 11.7%.

That is, there is no greater advantage on either side. The resultant matchup is exactly predicted by the matchup method.

Studes was right.

Bill James invented a similar method in the mid 90's. I didn't know it was in general use, but it gives the same answer, an expected strikeout rate of 11.8%. What this basically means is that the low strikeout hitters are farther above average than high strikeout pitchers.

The Day by Day Database now goes back to 1970. Here's a list of the doubles leaders from that year. Thirty-five doubles isn't bad for a catcher. Combine that with 45 homers (and even four triples) and it's no wonder Bench won the MVP that season.

Although not yet officially announced, Barry Zito agreed to an $18 million a year deal with the Giants. The total contract of $126 million is the highest paid to a pitcher:

Zito's agreement, reached late Wednesday night, includes an $18 million option for 2014 with a $7 million buyout that could increase the value to $137 million. The option would become guaranteed if Zito pitches 200 innings in 2013, 400 combined over 2012 and 2013 or 600 combined from 2011-13.

The complaint about Zito was his falling K/9 numbers. Through the 2003 season, Zito averaged 7.2 K per 9 and 3.4 BB per 9. Since, the K per 9 fell to 6.6 with the walks rising to 3.7 per 9. His home runs are up, too.

And for top price, the Giants aren't even getting a top ERA. Over the last three years, Zito does not even rank in the top 20, despite toiling in a pitcher's park. On the bright side, the Giants are getting a local favorite, and a veteran to stabilize a young staff. Barry benefited from being only top line pitcher available this year. The Giants have to hope he lives up to his contract better than Mike Hampton did.

Doctors found a brain tumor in Bobby Murcer. He'll undergo surgery today.

I started watching baseball in 1969. In Bridgeport, we received the Yankees and Mets telecasts. Murcer was one of my early favorites. Here's best wishes for a speedy recovery.

Chirs Brown died under mysterious circumstances:

Firefighters arrived about 1:30 a.m. on Nov. 30 at the home Brown owned in Sugar Land and found it "fully engulfed" in flames, Adolph said. Firefighters found no people or furniture inside, he said, and neighbors told authorities no one had lived there for some time.

Adolph said officials at Memorial Hermann Southwest Hospital told the Sugar Land fire department later that morning that Brown was there being treated for burns he suffered in a fire at his house. How Brown got from the burning house to the hospital about 9 miles away is part of the investigation, Adolph said.

Brown was transferred a few hours later to the main Memorial Hermann Hospital, Begay said. Sugar Land authorities never formally interviewed Brown because of his deteriorating condition, Adolph said.

Arson is suspected as the cause of the fire. As the article points out:

He is the second member of the mid-1980s Giants infield to die this month. Jose Uribe played shortstop for the team from 1985-92. He died at 47 in a Dec. 8 car crash in the Dominican Republic.

A friend who saw this stoy last night wrote me:

Look out Will Clark and Robbie Thrompson.

My thoughts go out to Brown's family and friends.

The View from the Bleachers is holding a writing contest this January.

This month's topic will be a fun one. In 500 to 750 words, make three predictions for the upcoming Cub's season and explain your reasoning for each one.

The prize is a copy of The 2007 Bill James Baseball Handbook.

Correction: It's the 2007 version of the Handbook, the latest one.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 8 PM EST. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room. I'm going to give the video feed a try tonight as well.

It looks like we'll all soon be learning the names of those who tested positive for steroids in 2003:

The names and urine samples of about 100 Major League Baseball players who tested positive three years ago can be used by federal investigators, a court ruled Wednesday - a decision that could have implications for Barry Bonds.

The federal appeals court ruling could bolster the government's perjury case against Bonds if his name is among those who tested positive. The slugger has been the target of a perjury investigation since he testified before a 2004 grand jury that he didn't knowingly use illegal drugs.

That's assuming, of course, that Bonds tested positive. I can imagine it could be embarassing for a lot of players, especially if they've denied use in the past.

However, I don't agree with this at all. Federal investigators in the 1990s were not interested in prosecuting players who used these drugs, just the dealers. Baseball worked out a way to get testing in place through anonymous tests. And in part because MLB held up their part of the bargain, the players and owners were able to make testing more stringent over time. Along with the leaking of the BALCO grand jury testimony, it is going to become extremely difficult for federal officials to get cooperation from athletes in the future. Twice now players have been promised anonymity or privacy in exchange for their cooperation, and twice that's been violated. Law enforcement just keeps making their own job more difficult.

Remember, this is why the union didn't want testing in the first place. I hope Don Fehr sends the players an "I told you so" note.

Update: Will Carroll has more in the comments.

Amazin' Avenue amazes me by starting off his top 50 Mets with Rey Ordonez at #50. While he makes his case for Ordonez's contributions with his glove, I'm wondering if this is really possible. I mean, without even getting into hitters, I'm pretty sure the following will be in the top 50:

• Tom Seaver
• Jerry Koosman
• Jon Matlack
• Dwight Gooden
• Tug McGraw
• Sid Fernandez
• Ron Darling
• John Franco

Then, again, off the top of my head and in no particular order, from the position players:

• Darryl Strawberry
• Cleon Jones
• Tommie Agee
• Jerry Grote
• Duffy Dyer
• Donn Clendenon (unofficial record holder for n's in a name)
• Ron Swaboda
• Rusty Staub
• Ed Kranepool
• Lenny Dykstra
• Mookie Wilson
• Ray Knight
• Howard Johnson
• Gary Carter
• Keith Hernandez
• Hubie Brooks
• Tim Teufel
• Wally Backman
• Kevin Mitchell
• Kevin McReynolds
• Mike Piazza
• John Olerud
• Jeff Kent
• Robin Ventura
• David Wright
• Carlos Beltran
• Cliff Floyd
• Jose Reyes

That's over 30 players right there, and I'm sure there have been bit players over the years like Richie Ashburn, Roger Craig, Wayne Garrett, Nolan Ryan and such that contributed somewhat more than Rey Ordonez. If very interested to see where he puts Bud Harrelson in that list. The Book Blog appears to agree with me.

Hat tip, MetsBlog.com.

Update: Added Jerry Koosman to the list of pitchers. I don't know how I forgot him.

The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EST. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

The Day by Day Database now goes back to 1971. Here's the leaders in slugging percentage that year. I wonder if there was a big stink about Torre winning the MVP over Aaron or Stargell? It's almost the opposite of this year's AL voting. Instead of going for a great offensive season by a player at a tough defensive position, the 2006 voters gave it to a slugging first baseman. In 1971,Torre's BA and OBA from third base beat out 100 points more of slugging from two fantastic outfielders. I'm not even sure how well Torre played third base that year, as he was converted from catcher. On top of that, Pittsburgh finished with the best record in the National League, which should give a boost to Stargell. It's a very interesting vote. The vote also agrees with win shares, which give Torre 41, Stargell 35 and Aaron 33. Let out of the top was Fergie Jenkins with 37.

MetsBlog.com links to an article indicating the Rangers put a deadline on Zito negotiations:

The Rangers have let Barry Zito's agent, Scott Boras, know that they don't plan to wait around all winter waiting for his response. The Rangers want to hear by this weekend whether or not Zito plans to accept their contract offer.

Rangers owner Tom Hicks wrote via e-mail: "We've made a very strong offer. If we don't have agreement with his agent by this weekend, we will pursue other alternatives."

Rangers general manager Jon Daniels also confirmed that deadline, writing, "That's accurate. End of the week."

Some commentors at the MetsBlog are rejoicing in this move, since they believe Zito is bound to reject it. However, this is exactly what the Yankees did with Johnny Damon last season. They made him a very generous offer and told him he had a very limited time to accept it.

If indeed the Rangers have the best offer on the table, setting a deadline let's everyone else know the offer is coming off the table soon. So the Mets and Giants can wait to see if Zito does indeed reject, in which case they can likely get Barry at a lower price. The danger, of course, is that the Rangers offer is really very good, and the Mets and Giants are left out in the cold. This is a very smart move by Texas, especially if they're willing to go on without Zito.

The Diamondbacks are on the same page as the Yankees in the Johnson deal. They'll only make the move if it's right for the team.

"He's 43 and has two back surgeries," said a source close to the decision-making process. "There's an upside to him, but there's a high degree of risk, as well."

That high degree of risk, and the progress the Diamondbacks feel they have made this off-season with the acquisition of starter Doug Davis, have put the front office in a win-win situation. General Manager Josh Byrnes and his staff can take or leave Johnson.

"The fact of the matter is that Randy is a Yankee right now," Diamondbacks President Derrick Hall said Tuesday night. "Josh Byrnes is working hard all day, every day in an effort to improve what we already consider a strong team.

"If there is a deal that makes sense for both sides, he and (Yankees GM) Brian (Cashman) will make it happen. Randy is a big part of our history and brings value to any team, but our baseball staff will not sacrifice a balanced roster if the asking price is too steep."

I still feel a deal for Johnson is a long way from getting done. All sides are basically in a take it or leave it mode, and there doesn't seem to be any urgency from anyone to make a deal.

Sal Baxamusa at The Hardball Times explores how the sequence of balls and strikes effect how well batters hit in counts. There's a difference in how you get to 1-1 that appears to matter.

The Day by Day Database now contains batter and pitcher daily lines back to 1972. Take a look at the great ERA race that year.

FoxSports.com reports that Shea Hillenbrand signed with the LAnaheim Angels. Not many details except that it's a one-year contract. He'll fit in well with the Angels philosphy of putting the ball in play. He's a low OBA, high BA player who neither walks nor strikes out much.

The Boston Globe notes David Ortiz's work in establishing a pediatric cardiovascular unit in his home country:

Nearly 1 percent of children born in the Dominican Republic have some sort of birth defect that requires surgery. Because there is no pediatric cardiac hospital in the country, sometimes a US team of surgeons, in a mission of mercy, will save a few kids in a nation in which more than 1,000 children are in need. Few can afford the $40,000 operation in the United States. In the Dominican, the operation costs $5,000.

But Ortiz came through in the clutch again.

"We've already operated on four children thanks to David Ortiz's sponsorship," said Dr. Pedro Urena, president of Heart Care Dominicana, who studied at Brown University. "Some of the rooms are still under construction."

It's always nice to see ballplayers giving back to the community.

The New York Daily News names San Diego, not Arizona, as the leading contender for Randy.

San Diego right now appears to be the most likely destination for the five-time Cy Young Award winner, but the Dodgers, Angels and Diamondbacks are all said to be in the mix. One of the officials, familiar with the ongoing discussions, used the phrase "several bona fide offers" to describe what the Yankees are mulling and said the Yankees probably would not have to include any money.

In exchange for Johnson, it's possible the Yankees could be looking at San Diego reliever Scott Linebrink, a righthander they've always liked.

I still think a trade of Johnson is unlikely for a number of reasons:

• Johnson's health.
• Johnson's no trade clause.
• The price the Yankees are asking.

However, there does appear to be a bidding war developing between San Diego, Los Angeles and Arizona as each team tries to keep Johnson away from the other. I'm sure we'll hear lots more on this over the next few days.

And of course, there's the Zito speculation:

Freeing up $16 million also may open the door for them to enter the bidding for top free agent lefthander Barry Zito, in which the Mets are a major player.

I always thought the Yankees might swoop in on Barry if a deal made sense. This might light a fire under the Mets, Rangers and Giants to try to get a deal done before a Johnson trade happens.

Jeff Albert at the Baseball Analysts investigates what swings tell us about the future development of hitters.

Johnny Damon is the commissioner of a new gaming league in which fans get to play their favorite video games against professional baseball players:

Yankees center fielder Johnny Damon has announced formation of the Professional Baseball Video Game League, in which some of baseball's best players will battle each other and their fans online.

Damon will serve as commissioner for the league's inaugural season, which kicks off this week with the first competitions on the league's chosen game, Microsoft's Project Gotham Racing 3 for Xbox 360.

That sounds like a very cool idea.

Ben Kabak links to an article suggesting the Diamondbacks and Yankees are working on trading Randy Johnson back to Arizona.

The deal doesn't make a lot of sense to me. So far, Byrnes has gone about building the Diamondbacks by jettisoning veterans for younger players. The Johnson move would do just the opposite. It's the kind of trade you make if you think you're ready to win. Given that Byrnes seems like a pretty smart GM, and the NL West is such a weak division, maybe Josh sees a chance here. If the Yankees can get a couple of good prospects for Randy, then in three trades this winter the Yankees will have made their future look pretty good.

The View from the Bleachers offers this Cubs Christmas poem.

The Chicago Tribune provides some details of Jeff Suppan's contract:

NL Championship Series MVP Jeff Suppan reached a preliminary agreement Sunday on a four-year, $42 million contract with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Suppan must pass a physical before the deal is finalized, the Brewers said in a rare Christmas Eve announcement. His contract includes a team option for 2011 with a $2 million buyout.

Given the money being thrown about this winter, that's downright reasonable. This gives the Brewers a rotation of Capuano, Sheets, Bush, Vargas and Suppan. How well this staff does depends on the health of Ben Sheets and how much offensive improvement the youngsters show. ERAs in the low fours are fine if you're not near the bottom of the league in runs scored.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all my readers. However you're celebrating, I hope you have a wonderful time with your friends and family!

The Milwaukee Brewers land Jeff Suppan, giving the pitcher a four year contract with a team option for the fifth year. I haven't seen anything on the money, however. Suppan is coming off the best three-year stretch of his career, during which he compiled a 44-26 record with a 3.95 ERA.

There was speculation that some teams were using the threat of signing Jeff as leverage against Barry Zito. That's gone now.

John Harper in the New York Daily News speculates that the Rangers trade for Brandon McCarthy means the Rangers are less interested in Barry Zito. And that's good for the Mets.

The Mets believe their chances of signing free agent Barry Zito improved last night with the news that the Rangers, apparently discouraged about their own pursuit of Zito, traded top prospects to the White Sox for highly regarded righthander Brandon McCarthy.

How much the Mets' chances improved is anyone's guess, considering that the Giants and Mariners, and perhaps another team or two, are in the hunt for Zito and may have an edge if whispers are true that the lefthander ideally would prefer to stay on the West Coast. Still, the Rangers were considered something of a wild card in the Zito sweepstakes if only because they were widely viewed as the team that would make the highest bid. The Mets took the trade for McCarthy as a sign that Texas either was getting indications that Zito wants no part of pitching in such a hitter-friendly ballpark or that the Rangers themselves aren't willing to pay $100 million-plus for a pitcher who is not regarded as an ace.

I don't buy it. The Rangers needed at least two starting pitchers, and McCarthy is one of those. Given Brandon's limited time in the majors, he's an inexpensive ballplayer. The trade should not effect the Rangers pursuit of Zito. Harper and the Mets realize that might be true:

The Mets were aware that Rangers GM Jon Daniels, speaking about the trade for McCarthy last night, said publicly that he wasn't encouraged about his chances of landing Zito. "At this point I'm not optimistic about that," Daniels said. "I don't really want to get into specifics of our conversations, other than to say I'm not terribly encouraged by our chances."

The Mets were wary about taking such a statement at face value, especially considering Rangers owner Tom Hicks' history as both a big spender and a man who historically hasn't said no to Zito's agent Scott Boras. At the very least, however, the Mets believe Daniels was trying to gain leverage with Boras, both with the trade and his public comments, apparently to keep the price from skyrocketing. Daniels also told reporters they shouldn't believe the rumors that the Rangers had made an offer in the $100 million range. "One way or another this looks like a good thing," the Mets' source said.

At some point, teams do need to make offers, however. The question is will they hold firm to the price, or engage in a bidding war. It strikes me that a bidding war favors the Rangers. If it's really about where Zito wants to play, a fair offer should land him.

Jamie Mottram posts about the end of Sports Bloggers Live in its current format. The show is moving from Washington to New York with a new crew. I want to wish everyone associated with the show the best of luck. SBL supported this site with links and interviews, and I am truly grateful for their help.

The Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers and White Sox agreed on a trade to send Brandon McCarthy south:

According to two Rangers sources, the club agreed to send top pitching prospect John Danks, the team's No. 1 pick in 2003, and reliever Nick Masset to the Chicago White Sox for 23-year-old hard-throwing right-hander Brandon McCarthy. Both teams will also exchange low-level minor leaguers.

McCarthy, who already has 151 innings of major league experience, spent last year mostly as an apprentice in the White Sox bullpen. He worked in 53 games with just two starts.

The White Sox have typically had their promising young starters work for a year in the bullpen before joining the rotation for good. The same plan worked well for both Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland.

McCarthy made 10 starts in 2005, most of them before his 22nd birthday. He is 4-3 with a 4.12 ERA in his 12 career starts. He has averaged 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings in those outings and has also held hitters to a .237 average.

McCarthy is not yet eligible for arbitration, which means the Rangers would control him through at least 2011.

What's not to love about the trade. The Rangers fill another hole in the rotation with a good, young and developing pitcher. While they're giving away a little bit of their future, McCarthy at 23 still has plenty of years. Danks, in terms of seasonal age is only a year younger, and has not major league experience. His minor league stats are very nice. Looks to me like a trade that helps both teams.

Now if the Rangers can sign Zito, they'll go into the season with at least Millwood, Zito, Padilla and McCarthy. That might be the best Rangers rotation in a long time.

Juan Rivera broke his tibia playing winter ball.

Rivera broke his left tibia in the Oriente Caribbeans' game against the Aragua Tigers in Maracay. The Angels said Rivera's leg has been placed in a cast and he will be flown to Miami, where he will be re-examined by a trauma specialist Saturday.

Maybe they should send him here for rehab. :-)

6-4-2 Has more.

There's a report that Sean Burroughs signed with the Mariners. Could he turn into another Bret Boone for Seattle? Boone was the son of a major leaguer, highly touted as a youngster that managed to have one good year through age 31. The Mariners picked him up for nothing at age 32 and he helped lead them to their 116 win season.

Burroughs put up two decent seasons for the Padres, getting on base at about a .350 clip, but the power they expected never developed. It got so bad for Sean that he was released by the Devil Rays last season. At 26, there's still a chance for him to be productive. A nice, low risk move by Seattle.

Update: Lookout Landing doesn't hold out much hope for Burroughs.

Daniel Rathman at Baseballistic praises the moves the Cleveland Indians made this off season:

Coming into this winter, the Indians had openings at 2nd-base, leftfield, and late-inning relief. GM Mark Shapiro knew that he needed to add a significant number of players, either via trade or free agency, and his strategy of plugging holes early and concentrating on adding depth later could not be better suited for this sort of offseason.

Daniel believes Shapiro set up this team to be a contender for years to come.

Oriole Post is a new blog about the Baltimore Orioles. Stop by and say hi.

The Red Sox Patriots game this year will start at 10 AM. It seems to be tied to the start of the Marathon. I could understand it if they wanted to give Fenway fans a chance to see the leaders, but since the game usually takes three hours, they'd be better off starting at 2 PM, so people can watch the race before going to the game.

Ken Griffey injured his left hand.

Griffey's throwing hand will be in a hard cast for three weeks, then will be re-examined, Reds spokesman Rob Butcher said Friday.

Butcher said he could not say when or how the accident occurred because Griffey did not authorize any more details to be released. Butcher also could not say whether Griffey would be ready when spring training starts in mid-February.

Probably a freak gardening accident.

Dayn Perry adds up his thoughts on Barry Bonds and comes to this conclusion:

In 2007, Barry Bonds will not break Hank Aaron's record.

That's a pretty strong statement. It's much better to put these things in terms of probability. Maybe Dayn believes there's a 95% chance Bonds won't break the record in 2007, but to go 100% against is a bit unreasonable.

Perry calls Bonds a player in decline, but he misses an important point about 2006; it took Bonds four months to get his stroke back. Look at his numbers by month. His batting average was up in August and September and he hit 12 of his 22 homers in that time. Perry's right that injuries could easily keep Barry from the record, but I was impressed with how much he played and how well he played last year, given his surgeries. I would not count him out so easily.

Josh Peter at Yahoo Sports scores the scoop on the FBI investigation into the BALCO leaks:

The FBI has targeted a defense attorney for leaking confidential grand jury information linking Barry Bonds and other world-class athletes to alleged steroid use, Yahoo! Sports has learned.

The defense attorney, Troy Ellerman, has been the subject of an FBI investigation, according to Larry McCormack, a former private investigator who worked on the BALCO federal steroids case and who said he was a co-tenant in an office with Ellerman in Sacramento, Calif., where they worked together on cases, at the time of the alleged leaks. Other sources have said they were interviewed by the FBI.

McCormack, who said he did investigative work on behalf of BALCO founder Victor Conte Jr. in the early stages of the case, said he told the FBI that Ellerman relayed confidential grand jury information to a reporter from the San Francisco Chronicle in 2004.

"I felt it was wrong," McCormack said of the leaks during a recent interview. "I said it was wrong from the get-go."

Here's the most damming accusations:

McCormack said Ellerman leaked information from the grand jury to Fainaru-Wada. McCormack said he met Fainaru-Wada during a lunch meeting with Ellerman in the spring or summer of 2004. He also said he saw Fainaru-Wada again when the reporter visited the Sacramento office McCormack shared with Ellerman about a half-dozen times between June and December, when Fainaru-Wada and Williams wrote articles citing leaked grand jury documents.

On June 24, 2004, when McCormack saw an article in the Chronicle that reported sprinter Montgomery had testified Conte gave him weekly doses of human growth hormone in 2001, McCormack said he knew the confidential information had come from Ellerman. He then confronted Ellerman.

"What in the hell are you doing?" McCormack said he asked. "Man, this is nuts. I don't know why you dragged me into this."

He said, "Don't worry about it. They (the reporters) won't testify."

The interesting thing is Ellerman accused the government of supplying the leaks, and Bonds' attorney still holds to that belief. Of course, Barry's lawyer is trying to prove there's a witch hunt for his client, so I'd expect that.

Now, McCormack may be out for revenge here:

McCormack said he wrestled with his decision to contact the FBI because he has known Ellerman for nine years, shared an office with him for five years and still considers him a friend. But McCormack also said he expected some would question his motives because his relationship with Ellerman had become strained.

They worked together at the Professional Rodeo Cowboys Association (PRCA), the world's premier rodeo association, headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo. Ellerman, a former bull rider, took over as commissioner in January 2005. McCormack said Ellerman hired him that March as chief operating officer and later appointed him as executive director of the PRCA's Hall of Fame museum.

But McCormack said he and Ellerman found themselves at odds over issues, such as Ellerman's aborted plan to move the PRCA to New Mexico. The board of trustees, by an 8-7 vote, fired McCormack on Aug. 30 and cited the museum's growing debt as the reason for his dismissal, according to McCormack. McCormack contends he was wrongfully terminated and that the PRCA's plan to uproot the headquarters and a public backlash created most of the museums financial problems.

About a week after his ouster, McCormack said, he contacted the federal authorities about the alleged leaks in the BALCO case. He also said he talked to Ellerman about a financial settlement but instructed his attorney to hold off on pursuing the settlement until the FBI completed its investigation. McCormack said he didn't want it to look as if he was trying to extort money from Ellerman.

Still, he's spent a lot of time in law enforcement, so you'd think he'd have something to back him up.

Update: As James points out in the comments, there's another leaker story as well. And Dontrelle seemed like such a nice young man.

Cecil Travis passed away recently at the age of 93:

Cecil Travis, a sweet-swinging infielder with the Washington Senators in the 1930s and '40s, whose stellar career was interrupted by World War II, died Dec. 16 of congestive heart failure at his farm in Riverdale, Ga. He was 93 and was one of the oldest surviving former Senators.

For years, historians and former players have debated the merits of Mr. Travis's truncated career, which is one of the most tantalizing what-if stories in baseball history.

Travis was part of the hit trio of 1941. Williams led the league with a .406 batting average, DiMaggio put together a 56-game hit streak, and Travis collected 218 hits to lead the league. He was 27 in 1941, just at his peak, but he went off to war and didn't play again until the end of 1945.

He was not the same player and didn't last long, playing a full but disappointing season in 1946. Here's a player that would be interesting to project out over his full career. He put down enough of a base that I bet models could do a pretty good job of filling out his career.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Correction: Changed yesterday to recently.

The Phillies send two Jeff Conine to the Reds for two minor leaguers of little value. Even though not much value passed between the two teams, you'd really like to see the Reds moving in the opposite direction, picking up youth for veterans.

This is why you sign the good, young players to a long term contract. As for this:

The Marlins can't complete [sic] in an all out auction against the larger market clubs. Even if a stadium deal gets done and is built in that length of time, he will be moving on. If you are thinking, why don't they sign him to long term contract now, he has indicated he won't do it.

Of course he won't do it now. Any contract he signs now is going to be too low, given the direction of salaries. But do you really think he would have turned down a team-year, $100 million dollar contract after the 2004 season? That would have looked real good. The Marlins could have owned an impact player long term below market. Instead, they'll see him set records every year in arbitration, then lose him to free agency.

Lookout Landing changed its logo, and explains why they're down on Bill Bavasi:

A long time ago some guy once said we shouldn't judge GM's by their moves, but by their philosophies. I don't remember who said it, or where, or in what context, but it's absolutely true. How many transactions does one GM make before he gives way to another? 10? 20? 30? Willie Ballgame hit .455 over 33 at bats five years ago, and everybody knows that's a meaningless sample, so why should it be any different for executives? Sometimes good moves don't work out (Freddy Garcia trade) while bad moves do (dealing Jeremy Giambi for John Mabry). GM's just aren't around long enough for their level of success to be a direct measure of their ability.

And so it is with that in mind that I've come to be deathly afraid of Bill Bavasi's gameplan. So much so that I think it would be in the organization's best interests to send him packing now and start rebuilding the front office as soon as possible. Allow me to explain.

It's worth reading the whole article.

Major League baseball salaries were up nicely in 2006.

The average salary shot up 9 percent this year to $2,699,292, according to final figures released Wednesday by the Major League Baseball Players Association. The increase was the highest since a 12.8 percent rise in 2001 and makes it likely the $3 million mark will be broken next year or in 2008.

That's based on August 31 rosters. Obviously, that's going to be up again in 2007. I thought this was very interesting, however:

Third basemen had the highest average among positions ($5.87 million), followed by first basemen ($5.78 million), designated hitters ($5.59 million), outfielders ($4.88 million), starting pitchers ($4.87 million), shortstops ($4.06 million), second basemen ($2.79 million) and relievers ($1.43 million).

A-Rod is likely the reason for the highly paid third basemen. I'm surprised designated hitters do so well. All they do is hit, and for the most part, they don't that so well. But basically, offense is much more highly prized than defense (catchers don't even make the list).

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 8 PM EST. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room. I'm going to give the video feed a try tonight as well.

The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EST. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Isn't Pete Rose endorsing you for the Hall of Fame like Mark Foley endorsing you for Congress? You're happy for the support but wish it was from someone cleaner.

The Seibu Lions received the $51 million from the Red Sox, and plan on using the money to improve the team. However, it won't be used to pay for the criminal activity of the owner:

Last year, a Japanese court convicted team owner Yoshiaki Tsutsumi of insider trading and falsifying company records.

Seibu's parent company, Seibu Railways, was given a $1.73 million fine, while Tsutsumi's privately owned company Kokudo Corp., was fined $1.3 million.

I suspect the team is throwing a nice party right about now.

The Giants signed Ryan Klesko so that Bruce Bochy won't lose his golfing partner:

In the meantime, the Giants roster continues to take shape. Bochy stumped hard for Klesko, a personal friend and golfing buddy who played in just six games last season because of left shoulder surgery.

"He's fully endorsed by our manager, as a lot of our acquisitions have been, and that's why he's here," Giants general manager Brian Sabean said.

Klesko will see time in left field and at first base, where he could work himself into a platoon with Rich Aurilia and make Sweeney expendable. (Klesko's deal would see him make up to $2 million more in performance bonuses based on plate appearances.) Bochy said he still considers Aurilia the primary first baseman, but "it's always going to stay competitive."

Maybe if the Giants can't work out the language in Bonds' contract, Ryan can play left full time! Right now, the Giants staters look like this (2007 seasonal ages):

• C -- Benjie Molina, 31
• 1B -- Rich Aurilia, 35
• 1B -- Ryan Klesko, 36
• 2B -- Ray Durham, 35
• 3B -- Pedro Feliz, 31
• SS -- Omar Vizquel, 40
• LF -- Barry Bonds, 42
• CF -- Dave Roberts, 35
• RF -- Randy Winn, 33

Counting the 1B platoon as 35.5, that makes the average age of the starting lineup 35.3 years. The one good young player they own is Frandsen, and he's behind two of the better players on the team. I just wonder what the long term plans for this team are? Will they keep signing vets to maintain the semblance of a competitive team? Or at some point, do they tear the whole thing down and start over? The first option is what Gene Autry did with the Angels for years. It got them nowhere. The second is what Cleveland did earlier this decade, and what Florida did last year. I'd rather see the Giants do the latter. It's cheaper and likely yields better results.

MetsBlog.com rounds up the latest news on the Barry Zito negotiations. It seems the Giants are involved and are likely to match any offer the Mets make.

I've started work on moving the Day by Day Database back in time. Game logs now go back to 1973. Here's Tommy Agee's final season. I'm hoping by the start of the 2007 season to push the database back to 1957, giving us 1/2 century of data.

A Braves draft pick takes a baseball bat to a car:

Steven Michael Evarts, 19, a standout pitcher for Robinson High School, was arrested Monday on charges of criminal mischief causing $1,000 or more in damage. Evarts was released on a $2,000 bond.

Evarts and two other men were seen damaging Barbara Montague's Chevrolet Blazer on Dec. 9, said Laura McElory, a spokeswoman for the Tampa Police Department. It's believed Evarts and Montague's son were in a dispute regarding their friends competing for the same spot on another high school baseball team, McElory said.

Damage to the vehicle, estimated at more than $3,700, included smashed windows and dents to the vehicle's body, police reports said. The other two suspects have not been arrested.

It seems he was channeling John Cleese:

When Basil's car breaks down on his way back to his gourmet night, it sets off one of his most memorable meltdowns. "Start, you vicious bastard!" he screams at his car. He then warns the car he is counting to three, and when it still doesn't start, he leaps out and shouts, "You stalled just once too often!... I've laid it on the line to you time and time again!... I'm gonna give you a damn good thrashing!" Basil runs off-screen and returns with a tree branch, which he smacks against the hood and windshield of the car in a fury.

Of course, when Cleese beats a car, it's hilarious!

Eric Gagne passed his physical and is now a member of the Texas Rangers.

Over at The View from the Bleachers, Joe Aiello discusses the Cubs rotation for 2007. What surprised me was no mention of Mark Prior. Lou Piniella does discuss Prior in this interview with Alan Schwarz:

SCHWARZ: That's the interesting thing here--the Cubs, for the past four years or so, at least from afar, have always been about Kerry Wood and Mark Prior and if-they-make-34-starts. Every year, with frustrating results. Is the re-signing of Aramis Ramirez, the signing of DeRosa, and the signing of Soriano a way of breaking with that past and saying, "We're starting a new era--it's not just about Prior and Wood anymore"?

PINIELLA: That's the way it seems, but that was not really our aim or our goal. With Kerry Wood, I talked to Kerry personally about the possibilities of moving into the bullpen. We felt he could stay healthier. We thought he could be more dominant. We told him we'd give him all the time in spring training he needed to make those adjustments. He was very pleased with that. So we're really not counting on Kerry as a starting pitcher.

With the other kid (Prior), the Cubs have had disappointments. We're going to bring him into camp and give him every opportunity to pitch in our rotation. Are we counting on him? Not as much as before. And the reason is, it's been hard keeping Prior healthy. So if he comes to camp and he's healthy, it's almost like signing another top, top pitcher. That's the way we're looking at it.

Talk about low expectations!

Update: As pointed out in the comments, Mark Prior is mentioned briefly in The View From the Bleachers post. I missed him when I rescanned the article because he wasn't in bold face.

The Boston Globe offers more details on the problems with J.D. Drew's shoulder:

Drew, who at the time had a fractured left wrist after being hit by a pitch, had arthroscopic surgery on his right wrist at the same time his shoulder was repaired. A tear in his labrum was repaired and he reportedly also had holes drilled in his shoulder blade to promote cartilage growth.

Sean Casey had similar surgery, and it took him a while to regain his strength:

But last July, during a stretch in which he went 43 games and 139 at-bats without a home run -- from June 2 to July 27, a period in which the Dodgers went 16-32 and nearly fell out of the NL West race -- Drew admitted that a weakened shoulder was a contributing factor.

"It could have," Drew told the Orange County Register. "[Detroit first baseman] Sean Casey told me he had a similar thing done and it took him a good 12 months to get his strength all the way back. I know I've lost some [strength]. Even the trainers have told me they can tell there's some residual weakness in the back of my right shoulder."

So, if Drew's recovery period is similar to Casey's he should be fine. It seems the Red Sox are just making sure.

Jim Morris notes the Reds are doing nothing to keep up with the Joneses:

Not long ago, the Chicago White Sox were dangling big right-hander Jon Garland in front of the Houston Astros. The trade fell through, but there was no question Garland was available.

Soon after Andy Pettite decided to return to the New York Yankees, the Astros plied Jason Jennings away from the Colorado Rockies.

A while back, the Philadelphia Phillies traded with the White Sox to get Freddy Garcia.

So with all this competent pitching floating around in big league baseball's trade market, where were the Cincinnati Reds? They were announcing the re-signing of 37-year-old David Weathers.

Whoopee.

Usually, when a team comes as close to making the playoffs as the Reds did, it spurs them on to improve during during the off season. The Reds are acting more like they won the World Series.

Ken Rosenthal at FoxSports.com believes Barry Zito should take the Mets situation over the Rangers money:

Yes, Zito is 11-1 with a 3.75 ERA lifetime at Texas' hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field. But as a flyball pitcher, he probably couldn't sustain that success over 18 home starts per season.

With the Mets, Zito would work at pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium, reunite with former A's pitching coach Rick Peterson and -- perhaps most important -- pitch in the less-potent National League.

Zito, 28, is 102-63 lifetime with a 3.83 ERA. His next six years probably will not be as good as his first six, given his declining strikeout rate and rising opponents' OPS.

Yet, if he's thinking at all about the Hall of Fame -- not an unreasonable notion, given his consistency and durability -- his decision will be easy.

Go with the better team. Go with the better situation. Go with the Mets.

Actually, both teams are in a very similar situation. Each has three healthy pitchers on its depth chart. The difference is the Rangers only have three pitchers period, while the Mets will eventually get their two back. So Zito is more important to Texas, hence more money.

And while the Mets may be the better team now, things can change quickly. The Mets would be a good situation for Zito, but in Texas he'd be the ace. And Texas might even make the difference in offers greater than $30 million. I don't believe it's as clear cut a choice as Rosenthal.

Outside the Beltway is developing a sports page, and is looking for beat writers for every team. He's even offering to pay! Sounds like a great opportunity.

Larry Sherry died from cancer at the age of 71. His brother Norm remembers him:

"He was a tough competitor. He was all business when he put that uniform on," Norm Sherry said. "He had a way about him when he came in from the bullpen, he was a mean pitcher, he didn't give any ground to anybody.

"We had Don Drysdale, Stan Williams, Larry, Roger Craig, Ed Roebuck -- all guys who if they didn't like the way you looked at them, they'd pitch you inside, good inside."

Norm Sherry, four years older than Larry, said his biggest thrill in baseball came in 1960, when he hit his first major league home run -- a game-winner for the Dodgers against Philadelphia in the bottom of the 11th inning. What helped to make it so special was that Larry was the winning pitcher.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

The Yankees wasted little time in locking up Kei Igawa. WasWatching has the details, courtesy of the The Daily Yomiuri:

The New York Yankees and Kei Igawa both played second fiddle in the posting sweepstakes. Igawa, though, got a first-rate deal it was learned on Monday, agreeing to a five-year, 20 million dollars contract with the Bronx Bombers.

The Yanks earned the right to negotiate with Igawa in late November and wasted little time getting the southpaw in pinstripes.

The deal for the 27-year-old, who was 14-9 this past season with a 2.97 ERA for the Hanshin Tigers, also includes incentives.

Igawa struck out 8.5 per 9 in Japan while walking just 2.9. That's the kind of control that's worth a chance.

The Tigers and Jeremy Bonderman reached a deal today that keep Jeremy in a Tigers uniform two years past the season he can become a free agent:

Bonderman, who would have been eligible for free agency after the 2008 season, gets $4.5 million in 2007, $8.5 million in 2008 and $12.5 million in each of the following two seasons.

The way salaries are climbing right now, locking up a good young player long term makes a lot of sense. It's also good for Bonderman, since he's so young he'll still be at a prime age when he can become a free agent after the 2010 season. Nice move by the Tigers.

The Red Sox came up with an innovative way to pay for Matsuzaka's salary.

FishStripes proposes a novel way to get Marlins fans to the ballpark:

Finally, adding an expensive reliever will not bring fans to the park. It is foolish to think it would. Next season's attendance probably won't be much different than last season's. Meaning most everyone will stay at home and watch the team on television. If you really want to change that, fire Rich and Tommy and hire the Cardinals announcers. The Marlins fans will quit watching the games on television and head out to the ballpark in droves, just so they don't have to listen to that crap.

Brad Radke retires tomorrow:

"It'll be a sad day because he's not going to be pitching for us anymore," manager Ron Gardenhire said Sunday. "And it's also going to be a great day because he's done so much for our organization. He started with us, and he never left us. That's something our organization is very, very proud of."

Radke, 34, privately has planned to retire since spring training. The pain in his right shoulder was simply too much. To pitch again, doctors said, Radke would require surgery to repair his torn labrum, and the recovery would likely keep him out for much of 2007.

Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson occasionally spoke to Radke about delaying his retirement.

"I gave him one last pitch a couple days after the season," Anderson said. "My last thing was, 'Hey, Rad, don't announce anything. Why don't you see how you feel? And come January or February, if you get the urge to do it again, maybe come on down [to spring training] and see what you've got.'

"He said, 'You know, I've made up my mind.' "

Radke's strength as a pitcher was keeping free pases to a minimum. He issued just 445 walks in 2451 career innings. Over his career, his BB per 9 is third in the majors among pitchers with at least 1500 innings. On the downside, he allowed home runs at a high rate, tied for ninth in the majors over the same period. He was not a great pitcher, but on better Twins teams early in his career he likely would have won a lot more games.

Bob McManaman notes that given the starting eight for Arizona, Bob Melvin doesn't have an obvious lineup:

"We really don't have a prototypical leadoff guy; we really don't have a prototypical No. 4 guy," Melvin said. "We've got lots of guys that we feel like are 2, 3, 5, 6 guys. . . . If those are our biggest problems, then we can figure a way out to do something at least day to day on lineups. It doesn't have to be a set lineup every day."

Bob can always try this. The numbers are career numbers for everyone but Chris Young. For Chris, I used his Bill James Baseball Handbook projection. For the pitchers, I used 2006 Arizona pitchers combined. (Just to be complete, here's the lineup using 2007 projections.)

One thing I like about the Arizona lineup is that while they don't have one player who is outstanding at getting on base, most of their players are above average. That should give the team an above average OBA and above average run scoring. They just need to get the pitchers ERA below average so they can win.

We hosted a Japanese exchange student during October, one of a group that visited Longmeadow at the time. My daughter made friends with a few of the visitors, and one, Suguru wrote her with his feelings about Matsuzaka:

By the way!! Daisuke Matsuzaka join Red Sox!!! I am very very very very happy! Because Matsuzaka is my most love player!!! He is my HERO!!! and Melinda and some longmeadow's people loves Red SOX!! What a nice thing!!!!!!!!! YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! hahaha

And his home team is the Nippon Ham Fighters!

As expected, Fox is reporting Marcus Giles will sign with the Padres.

Marcus, 28, likely will agree to a one-year deal and possibly a club option. His salary will be significantly less than the $5.5 million that he might have earned in salary arbitration with the Braves, who declined to offer him a contract.

The short-term deal will give Marcus a chance to re-establish his value as he tries to rebound from his worst offensive season as a regular. It also gives him the opportunity to return home to San Diego and become major-league teammates with Brian, 35, for the first time.

It's a smart move for Marcus. My guess is he's still a good player who had an off year. If he plays up to his potential, he'll be worth a lot more money on the free agent market next season.

The trade of Sisco for Gload between Royals and White Sox didn't seem like a good deal from the Royals point of view. Royals Authority explains why Sisco had to go:

Which leads us to this interesting tidbit, as reported by Rany Jazayerli:

A little over two weeks ago, I got an email forwarded to me by Paul Swydan, one of our BP interns, from a gentleman named Bruce Baskin, who apparently writes a newsletter on Mexican baseball. Here's a copy of that email:

"Check this out: Andy Sisco, the 6′9″ kid from Eastern Washington who pitches for the Royals, was just cut by Mazatlan. He was pitching well enough, however the team director saw Sisco munching on a couple of tacos in the stadium concourse...during the first inning of a game. Apparently, he showed up in the dugout sometime in the second, but his fate was sealed.

"What a bonehead! Hadn't he been down there long enough to figure they take the game a whole lot more seriously in Mazatlan than they do in Omaha? Hope he got his tacos to go."

Maybe the White Sox can talk some sense into him.

Dodger Thoughts quotes the Boston Herald and Will Carroll on why the J.D. Drew deal remain pending. There seems to be a bit of a shoulder problem there. 6-4-2 Notes that this makes DePodesta's contract to J.D. look a lot better.

The Yankees signed a Cuban defector as their new first baseman. I like his Cuban stats; he gets on base and hits for power. And if his age proves to be correct (23), he's still developing. Signing this player makes me feel better about a deal that would move Melky Cabrera, although I'd rather see them develop both.

Sam Mellinger in the Kansas City Star discusses the major leagues adopting the posting system:

Williams' wish was made in jest, but former A's owner Charlie Finley effectively posted some of his best players after losing Catfish Hunter to free-agency in 1976.

Finley put his guys up for auction, and was set to sell Joe Rudi and Rollie Fingers to the Red Sox and Vida Blue to the Yankees. Commissioner Bowie Kuhn invoked the best-interests-of-the-game clause and blocked the sales.

Since then, cash has often been involved in trades, but no big-league team has tried to sell or "post" one of its players. Even if it would be interesting.

"I thought that was a funny quote from Kenny Williams," says Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro. "But I don't spend the energy on things like that. That'd be pretty inefficient on my end."

Kuhn did not have the best interests of the game at heart when he voided Finley's sales. He was just out to screw Finley. One way small market owners kept afloat during the first 100 years of the major leagues was selling their good players. Connie Mack would build a great team, win, then sell off the players because he couldn't afford to pay them once they were great. He'd then use the money to try to build another great team.

But Kuhn put a stop to that, to the detriment of the game. Now, any sale over $1 million dollars must be approved by the commissioner. But, teams like Florida are allowed to destroy their team to rebuild, exactly what Finley tried to do in the mid 1970's. That rule should be gone. Let teams sell players for what they can get on the baseball market. It's a much better form of revenue sharing.

Todd Zolecki interviews Bill James on the Phillies. I like the way Bill gets right to the heart of the matter:

Q: There's been an argument made that this lineup has too many strikeouts. Are strikeouts a lineup killer as some suggest?

A: Well, am I imagining this or did the Phillies lead the league in runs scored? It seems to me that's really more important than how many strikeouts you have. The idea is to score runs. To me, if you're going to score that many runs it makes more sense to focus on making the starting pitching as solid as you can and improving from there.

See his comments on Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins as well. Bill likes Jimmy more than I thought he would.

A three-way trade rumor is making it's way through the New York papers, with Melky Cabrera, Adam La Roche and Mike Gonzalez moving clockwise from New York to Atlanta to Pittsburgh to New York. With the way the Yankees are trying to put together this team, Cabrera is the odd man out. They appear set on hiring a defensive first baseman and playing Giambi at DH, when instead they could easily absorb Giambi's glove and play Melky everyday at one of the outfield positions as Matusi, Damon and Abreu takes turns at DH. Just when I thought the Yankees were trying to cut the age of the team, they're going to trade away one of the younger players.

If the deal goes through, it's a nice pickup for the Braves. Melky is a good defender, and if Andruw Jones leaves next season, Melky can move in to center. And he still has plenty of time to develop offensively.

TheWisconsinSportsBar wants to know what Doug Melvin is going to do with all those shortstops, especially if he acquires Clint Barmes. I would guess, since there are teams that always need a shortstop, he's looking to trade from a strength.

Tom Krasovic notes the San Diego Padres stock piled draft picks for this June:

From 2000-04, the Padres had an average of 2.8 picks among the amateur draft's top 100 selections. Under CEO Alderson, that total has averaged five the past two years, and in seven months the Padres will have six to nine picks among the top 100 and as many as 11 before the fourth round.

"It's a great opportunity for us to upgrade the minor league system much more quickly than we otherwise would have been able to do," Alderson said.

Extra picks don't guarantee success. The Padres had seven of the top 80 picks in the 1999 draft and mostly whiffed. Alderson's excitement over the 1990 draft proved premature when his club, the Oakland Athletics, basically wasted eight top-100 draft picks, including four before the second round.

"You have to make good decisions," Alderson said.

Tom also wonders if the Padres will want to spend the money on the best picks available:

They had a big opportunity in 2004 when they had the No. 1 pick. San Diego's scouts recommended Stephen Drew or pitcher Jered Weaver. The club instead signed the less-expensive Matt Bush, and that was some 10 months after the Padres had saved nearly $2 million when their top pick of 2003, Tim Stauffer, admitted to a bum shoulder during negotiations.

Alderson, whose club will have until Aug. 15 to get all draftees signed, said the Padres are prepared to expand their draft budget by $4 million to $5 million. Further investing in their farm system, the Padres recently committed $8 million to the construction of a facility in the Dominican Republic.

It's a great opportunity for San Diego to build for the future.

The final voting is not official, but it looks like Kissing Suzy Kolber took won Best Sports Blog for 2006. Congratulations! And thanks to everyone who voted for Baseball Musings and helped the site take the Bronze Medal.

Ken Rosenthal discusses the possible long-term sale of the Orioles to Cal Ripken at FoxSports.com. What gets me is this:

Ripken, 46, would need significant financial backing; the combined price for the Orioles and their new regional television network could exceed $800 million, according to one industry analyst.

Angelos paid $173 million for the team in 1993. I don't know how much debt he's taken on over the years, but with the success of the team for most of that time, Angelos probably earned about $400 to $500 million in equity. In other words, the Orioles have more than enough money to easily compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. The Orioles, however, don't spend their money wisely. From what I've read, a lot has to do with Peter micromanaging the front office. No matter the excuse, there's no reason for the Orioles not to go after the best players in the game, just like New York and Boston do. They have the money to make it happen.

Vernon Wells accepted the Blue Jays offer made earlier in the week.

Here's the structure of the contract:

The extension calls for a $25.5 million signing bonus, payable in three $8.5 million installments each March 1 in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

He will receive a salary of only $500,000 in 2008 and $1.5 million in 2009, but his salary jumps to $12.5 million in 2010 and $23 million in 2011. Wells receives $21 million in each of the final three seasons.

Under the extension, Wells has the right to terminate his agreement after the 2011 season and become eligible for free agency.

He gets a full no-trade clause and could earn bonuses of $250,000 for MVP, $200,000 for World Series MVP, $150,000 for League Championship Series MVP and $100,000 for receiving the most votes in his league in all-star balloting.

Does anyone know if there is a difference between how bonuses and salary are treated in relation to the salary cap or team taxes? It's interesting that the opt out is after the 2011 season, just after his salary goes way up. So the Jays are on the hook for just $69 million (counting his 2007 salary), and if salaries continue to sky rocket, Wells would likely opt out after the 2011 season. So the Jays could end up getting five good years at $14 million per season, and then someone else ends up paying for his declining years at a much higher price. It's a clever contract.

Buck O'Neil posthumously received the Medal of Freedom:

In a 40-minute ceremony under the glittering chandeliers of the East Room, Bush lauded O'Neil for helping break down the barriers of racial prejudice. Jackie Robinson broke the major league color barrier in 1947, but by then it was too late for O'Neil. "Buck O'Neil lived long enough to see baseball and America change for the better," Bush told the assembled audience. "He's one of the people we can thank for that. Buck O'Neil was a legend and a beautiful human being and we honor the memory of Buck O'Neil."

It's too bad this didn't happen sooner, so Buck could enjoy the award.

The earlier article I read on Iwamura had him making between 7 and 8 million a year for three years. It turns out, he's earning that over the life of the contract:

Infielder Akinori Iwamura became the second Japanese star to land in the major leagues in as many days when he agreed Friday to a $7.7 million, three-year contract with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. With one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, the last-place Devil Rays lack the financial resources to compete for top-tier free agents. They feel they made a significant acquisition, however, in the 27-year-old Iwamura.

That's a very good deal for the Devil Rays.

The Boston Red Sox pick up Brenden Donnelly from the Angels in exchange for a career minor leaguer. For someone who didn't pitch in the majors until he was 30, Donnelly's had a very good career. Fire Brand of the American League likes the deal. It's a case of the Angels trading a known quantity for a younger unknown.

The Biz of Baseball offers contributions from 30 people involved in the game on what's right and wrong with baseball today.

You still have until midnight tonight to vote for your favorite sports weblog at The 2006 Weblog Awards. There are many other categories as well. Even if you've already cast a vote, you can vote once every 24 hours, so feel free to cast another!

The Devil Rays got caught bending the rules on a waiver transaction:

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays' claim and subsequent trade of left-handed pitcher Bobby Livingston was voided by the commissioner's office Thursday, and Livingston then was awarded to the Cincinnati Reds.

The Devil Rays have the highest waiver-claim priority this offseacon by virtue of their major-league worst 61-101 record, so under ordinary circumstances they will receive any player they claim off outright waivers until the next waiver period starts on the 31st day of the 2007 regular season.

However, because the Devil Rays immediately traded Livingston to the Phillies after claiming him from Seattle on Tuesday, they violated Major League Rule 10(h), which states "no Club shall solicit another Club, directly or indirectly, to claim or not claim a player on waivers ... nor shall a Club otherwise act in concert with any Club or Clubs in the operation of the waiver system."

I guess they should have waited a few days before making the trade. I actually find these rules a bit silly. A draft choice, a waiver claim, may have more value for a team in what they can get for the player chosen, and teams should be able to trade those freely.

Lost in all the hoopla over Matsuzaka, the Devil Rays reached a deal with Akinori Iwamura to play third base. It's only for three years, but he'll earn close to what Matsuzaka's getting on a yearly basis. Rays Index surmises that someone needs to be traded and speculates on who it might be.

The other question that comes up is how well will Iwamura hit in the majors. For his career, he's posted .366 OBA and a .519 slugging percentage, but his last three years were much better than that. High OBA players tend to take a hit in that category when they come to the US. Ichiro and both Matsuis saw a drop in OBA. With Suzuki and Hideki, their OBAs were so high that it didn't matter; they were still very productive players. But it really killed Kaz Matsui's value. Two players with lower career OBAs, Iguchi and Taguchi, saw very slight drops in their OBAs. Maybe because the others were seen as more of a threat, they were walked more in Japan, and that didn't happen in the US. Iwamura's stats are more like Kaz Matsui's. The Devil Rays hope that the same thing doesn't happen to his offense. He'll have a much better park to hit in than Kaz did, however.

Tourism Massachusetts expects Daisuke Matsuzaka to raise tourism revenue in Boston per year more than the value of his contract:

The Red Sox spent more than $100 million to bring Dice-K to Boston.

That's how many more visitors Tourism Massachusetts, a nonprofit marketing group, estimates will come to Boston annually to watch Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka in a Red Sox uniform.

They're also expected to spend $75 million annually here.

That's a bit more than the $52 million the Red Sox are paying Matsuzaka in salary, or the $51.1 million they had to pay to his former team.

And while the Red Sox won't see much of that money, boosting revenues that much should give them more political pull, always a good thing.

FishStripes posts the World Championship odds for all 30 major league teams. I notice the Nationals are 150:1. Bill James once wrote that no team in baseball is truly worse than 100:1 to win the World Series, making the Nationals a good long shot bet. Looking at the ranking, I'd say the Cubs are too high and the four teams listed 20:1 to 25:1 are too low.

Get Up, Baby, examines the arguments around the value of Jeff Suppan.

Would you be interested in attending 366 games in 366 days? Joe McMackin is looking for 9 to 10 people to travel with him around the country as he spends 2008 attending as many sporting events as possible.

Miguel Batista signed a three-year deal with the Mariners:

Batista signed a three-year contract Thursday that was believed to be worth between $8 million and $9 million annually. The signing adds another proven starter to the rotation, but one with a losing career record who is not the front-line No. 1 pitcher that management and fans have been seeking.

It's not a bad deal as BaseballReference.com list him with an ERA+ over 100 for the last six seasons. Given the money some other pitchers received, that's a very reasonable deal.

Jeff Bagwell will make his retirement official tomorrow.

The four-time All Star will remain with the Astros as part of a personal-services agreement reached with the team earlier this week, according to a person familiar with the team's plan who requested anonymity because an official announcement had not been made.

Bagwell, the greatest power hitter in Houston Astros history, is expected to work with young Astros hitters, assisting in the front office and making appearances for the team.

The Astros have scheduled a Friday morning news conference to announce the retirement.

Bagwell was quite the hero at STATS, Inc. The STATS Baseball Handbook following the 1990 season was the first to include Bill James projections for the next year. Included were predictions for players likely to be rookies in 1991, including Bagwell. When Peter Gammons read the book, he wrote in his review that Bill James predicted Jeff Bagwell would win the National League batting title.

What happened was that Bagwell's prediction turned out to have the highest batting average among National League players. No one at STATS noticed this at the time. Bill felt at the time that if Jeff had a poor season, no one would respect the predictions again. Bagwell didn't win the batting title (he finished 5th in OBA), but he did have a great season and won the Rookie of the Year, ending up making the prediction look pretty good. With that season, he became one of Bill's favorite players.

Deadspin posts video of a robot hitter. I like the way it just tries to make contact.

10,000 Takes makes some suggestions as to what a Minnesota Twins contract for Johan Santana should include.

Daniel Drezner looks at Matsuzaka's signing from the Japanese point of view.

Via MetsBlog.com, the Padres made an offer to Marcus Giles:

General Manager Kevin Towers said he made a contractual offer yesterday to second baseman Marcus Giles, the former Braves regular who became a free agent on Tuesday night. The proposal is believed to be worth $3 million to $4 million.

Sounds like a bargain to me if the Padres can get him at that price.

If you get NESN and you're a Red Sox fan, they're broadcasting a Matsuzaka marathon. They'll have the press conference at 5:00 PM EST, and they just showed footage of Theo showing Dice-K his new locker. His name plate is already up, his uniforms are in place, and he'll be wearing number 18.

Update: Matsuzaka will be dropping the puck at the Bruins game tonight. It's all Matsuzaka, all the time!

The NESN crew just pointed out that the Red Sox home opener is againt Seattle, so if Matsuzaka pitches that game, the first plate appearance could be Dice-K vs. Ichiro.

Update: The news conference is starting with Theo as MC.

Update: Theo's taking his time so his speech can be translated. He just introduced Daisuke and the pitcher is showing off his new jersey and hat.

Update: Theo spoke to the people of Japan, calling Matsuzaka a national treasure and committing the Red Sox to helping him make a successful transition to the US.

Update: It's interesting listening to the conference. Matsuzaka will give about a 60 second answer, and translator reduces it to about 10 seconds.

Update: Matsuzaka gave the right answer to his goal with the Red Sox, helping them win the world series.

Update: No one's asked Daisuke if he throws the gyroball.

Update: Someone just asked if Matsuzaka threw John Henry a gyroball off the mound at Fenway.

Update: Larry Lucchino ended the conference reaching out to Japanese fans, inviting them to visit Fenway. Good luck getting tickets! He also made sure the Japanese people understood that the Red Sox planned for this to be a long term relationship with their country.

Here's a novel hypothesis concerning Joel Zumaya's injury. It's my daughter's favorite video game.

The Big Lead would like your input on whether Manny Ramirez ranks in the top five all-time among right-handed hitters. This paragraph, however, makes me wonder if they think about baseball all that much:

It makes for a decent offseason discussion. Upon closer inspection, who knew that the majority of the greatest hitters - remember, we're not counting fielding or salary, just hitting - in the last 75 years were lefty (Ted Williams, Tony Gwynn, Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Mickey Mantle - switch, mostly lefty)?

Pretty much everybody. Lefties have two advantages:

• A shorter run to first base.
• Most of the pitchers they face are right handed.

And one name they need to include in the discussion is Rogers Hornsby.

As for Ramirez, his career OPS is 1.011, and he's likely to come very close to 700 home runs for his career.

Dayn Perry at FoxSports.com rounds up the projection of Matsuzaka's stats and comes to this conclusion:

Overall, you've got a hurler who profiles as an ace or a reasonable facsimile thereof. Barring injury, the worst you'll see from Matsuzaka in 2007 is an ERA in the mid-3.00s; the best you'll see from him (given the run support he figures to get in Boston) is 20-plus wins and a Cy Young award. His fly-ball tendencies may hurt him at times in Fenway, but otherwise he'll be the best starter in the Boston rotation and maybe -- just maybe -- the best starting pitcher in baseball not named Johan Santana.

Not bad.

Who would have thought Mike Pagliarulo would turn out to be a stat head? He specializes in scouting Pacific rim players:

The Sox also got a thumbs-up from former major league third baseman Mike Pagliarulo, who for years has run a sophisticated scouting service for international players, with emphasis on the Pacific Rim. Pagliarulo, who grew up in Medford, had watched the Matsuzaka situation closely because he had inside knowledge of the talented pitcher.

Pagliarulo also recommends what a Japanese player is worth to a major league team by using complicated formulas. Pagliarulo's service has been used by major league and Japanese teams, but the Red Sox aren't among his clientele.

When asked what he would have recommended as a posting figure for Matsuzaka, Pagliarulo said, "Fifty million. That's what I had written down long before the figures came out. That was based on the talent level of the player, the market for the player, and the value of the player to a team. The Red Sox did an excellent job in finding that value. They really did their homework."

More importantly, Mike knew the one piece of information that was key to the negotiations; whether Matsuzaka was willing to return to Japan:

Pagliarulo, who played for Seibu and was a teammate of current Lions manager Tsutomu Ito, is close to the Seibu ownership. He knew there was zero chance Matsuzaka was returning to Seibu. Pagliarulo also said that if Matsuzaka tried to return to Seibu, the team would not allow him to be posted again next season.

Pagliarulo figured that at some point Matsuzaka must have told Boras to get a deal done.

If Boras could convince the Red Sox that Matsuzaka would indeed go home, then he might have extracted more money. But Daisuke wanted to play in the bigs, and that proved to be the difference. Pags really likes Matsuzaka, by the way:

Pagliarulo has watched Matsuzaka closely the past few years. "I only scouted him when the proper matchups were in place," he said. "If you're scouting him haphazardly against any hitter or team, you're wasting your time. I wanted to see how he reacted against top hitters and I analyzed his strikes in the strike zone. The thing about him is he wants the baseball. He wants to pitch in the biggest stage and in the biggest game.

"If you beat him, he's not fazed by that. He comes right back at the next hitter. He's a winner. He'a tough kid on the mound and I think that should translate very well to the majors."

We'll see.

I thought Doug Mirabelli's career with the Red Sox was over, but I guess as long as Tim Wakefield pitches, Doug will be catching. May be Boston should carry ten pitchers and three catchers this season so they have a backup who can hit a little.

Lisa Gray takes an in-depth look at the Astros-Rockies deal.

According to Fox, the Red Sox will hold a news conference at 5 PM EST Thursday to announce the Matsuzaka deal.

U.S.S. Mariner is very unhappy with the deal in which the Mariners get Jose Vidro and the Nationals get Snelling and Fruto.

The Mariners have traded two players, one finally healthy and tearing the cover off the ball who can play right or left, and a still younger, cheap, effective reliever in order to acquire a 31-year old passable hitter who plays a position where team has another cheap, effective player (if Hargrove would just stop telling him to ground out over and over).

I've tried to come up with a justification for this, and I can't. There must be another deal waiting, which makes this hard to justify in isolation: at least one of Broussard/Lopez/Sexson is going to be booted.

But this move hurts the team. More than just next season: Snelling and Fruto were both the kind of players who could be parts of the next Mariner championship team. Snelling in particular could be one of the best hitters on any team (if he stays healthy, of course), and he's under team control for years for very little money. Jose Vidro's a declining, increasingly immobile player on the wrong side of his peak who'll be paid an immense amount of money. Vidro will not help the M's win a pennant. If it comes to be, this will be one of the worst trades the team's ever made, even if Snelling never plays another game and Fruto doesn't throw another strike.

Vidro's not a bad player, but he's the last piece of a puzzle. If you need a second baseman to win a championship and all the other pieces are there, it's a good move. But the Mariners are nowhere near that.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 8 PM EST. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room. I'm going to give the video feed a try tonight as well.

Update: I'm having technical difficulties with the broadcast tonight. If it's not up in a few minutes, I'll just record the show as a podcast. I am live in the chat room, however, if you'd like to stop by. Select Sports Talk, rather than the X room.

If you were wondering how the Jays were going to spend all the extra money they budgeted for the team, this may be the answer:

The Blue Jays apparently are serious about keeping budding superstar Vernon Wells in the fold.

Wells, who can become a free agent after next season, was offered a seven-year, $126 million extension by Toronto. No deal has been agreed to, however.

Wells, who will make $5.6 million next season, confirmed the offer in an interview with The Globe and Mail, but wouldn't confirm the amount.

That's $18 million a year to you and me. And that's a lot of money for someone whose career high in OPS is .909. He's basically played two very good seasons in his career and four okay ones. That's not a superstar to me. The Manny and A-Rod contracts look better every day, and Derek Jeter is downright cheap.

The question now is, does Wells take the offer and guarantee his security for the rest of his life, or does he try to have an even better year in 2007 and see what he can get on the open market?

Matsuzaka is on the ground and headed for his physical, and he's getting the Doug Mirabelli treatment:

The plane carrying Daisuke Matsuzaka, Scott Boras, and the Red Sox contingent has landed at Hanscom Air Force base.

Tom Werner, Scott Boras, Theo Epstein, Larry Lucchino, and Daisuke Matsuzaka were all seen leaving the plane and getting into trucks.

The caravan is going by police escort to Mass. General Hospital, presumably for Matsuzaka's physical, which is required before any deal is finalized.

For those of you not familiar with the area, Hanscom is located on the outskirts of Lexington, MA, between the Lexington Green and the north bridge in Concord where the revolution started. At this time of day, they're going to need the police escort to get to Mass General in less than two hours. :-)

Jon Heyman at SI.com reports on the deal (thanks to James Dreier for the link):

Daisuke Matsuzaka has reached a deal with the Boston Red Sox for six years, $52 million, a source close to the negotiations has told SI.com. The deal contains escalator clauses that could bring it up to $60 million.

I must admit I find that number surprisingly low, given that Boras seemed to have the upper hand in the negotiations. I wonder if the $52 millions was a point of pride, that Matsuzaka receive more money than the bid? If he's as good as scouts believe, $8.5 million a year is a low salary. I'm guessing that Matsuzaka wanted to play in the US more than he wanted to get a market value salary.

Now, I'm sure the Red Sox are looking at it as $17 million a year, given what they paid the Lions. I'm surprised Matsuzaka didn't go for a shorter term deal, where he could be a free agent after three years. It's possible the Red Sox wanted to get the most for their $51 million, so they wanted to lock up the pitcher to a long term deal.

Either way, the pitcher made out very well. He's a wealthy man, and now the Red Sox will wait and see if their $103 million investment pays off on the field and in international revenue.

Update: Henry says there is no deal yet. I believe that's a technicallity. Daisuke still needs to undergo a physical, and there's always little things that come up. With them on the plane, however, my bet is the deal is likely to be completed.

Aaron Cohen sends this link for people who want to know where Matsuzaka is at all times.

The Baseball Crank uses his Established Win Shares Level to examine the cost of free agent signings this winter. Craig Counsell and Sean Casey look like bargains.

The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EST. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

And this week, I have a video feed working so if you stop by the chat room, you'll be able to see me on air! I'm told I have a great face for radio. :-)

Reader Jason Beck sends this link to the Boston Globe blog:

A source close to the negotiations confirmed that the Red Sox contingent in Southern California is flying back to Boston with pitcher Daisuke Matsuzka and his agent, Scott Boras, on board.

Stay tuned.

In the comments to this post, James Dreier points out some optimism on Japanese TV that the sides are moving closer to a deal.

Johnny Almaraz seems to be the latest Reds official to leave as Wayne Krivsky passively pushes inherited personnel away:

When Barton's resignation came to light during baseball winter meetings in Orlando last week, Almaraz indicated to the Dayton Daily News that he, too, was not happy and that he might follow Barton's lead.

"I'm not included in any of the discussions and, in fact, when I walked into the suite during the winter meetings Wayne and his people would lower their voices to a whisper or take their discussions into the bedroom," Almaraz said.

I'm sorry, this just isn't right. It's perfectly fine for a GM to bring in his own people, but don't jerk people around. If you don't want their input, let them go. Krivsky may need to deal with these people in the future, and they're not going to be friendly toward him.

Jeff Sackmann notes the lack of winter moves by the Nationals despite losing players. This does not bode well for the team winning in 2007:

Just how bad could Washington's squad be next year? Barring a Jim Bowden megatrade, the answer to that question begins and ends with the starting rotation. MLB.com provides a depth chart for all 30 major league teams, and for most teams, that means a list of six or more starters along with 10-12 relievers, the group from which the pitching staff will be selected come March. The Nats chart, however, doesn't deserve the adjective "depth." It lists only three starting pitchers: John Patterson, Michael O'Connor, and Shawn Hill.

He's pegging the Nats at 71 wins next year, and for the forseeable future.

There's nothing new to report, although negotiations appeared to go late into the night.

You just can't take A.J. Pierzynski anywhere:

Catcher A.J. Pierzynski of the 2005 world champion Chicago White Sox picked a fight with World Series MVP David Eckstein of the 2006 world champion St. Louis Cardinals during the TNA pay-per-view Turning Point on Sunday, Dec. 10 from Universal Studios Orlando.

Pierzynski had a shoving match with Eckstein. Pierzynski's pal Dale Torborg, the strength and conditioning coach for the White Sox and formerly the Demon in WCW, slugged Eckstein's brother, Rick, a minor league coach.

''Dale and I were a little upset that they got the big entrance, yet we just got introduced from the [seats]. Plus, they got the [entrance] music, and we didn't,'' Pierzynski said. ``It was a little disappointing. We got a little jealous, so we took out our frustrations on them.''

Given that it was a TNA event, I assume it was staged and Andy Kaufman was somehow involved.

Hat tip: Batgirl.

The Atlanta Braves did not tender Marcus Giles a contract. He becomes a free agent:

The Braves pushed hard to trade Giles during the winter meetings, but couldn't work out a deal for someone to take their leadoff hitter from this past season. So they declined to tender him a contract for 2007.

General manager John Schuerholz said he couldn't risk going to arbitration with Giles, who made $3.85 million in 2006 and likely would have commanded over $5 million for next season.

My god, who would want to spend $5 million on a player with a .361 career OBA! The horror! It's a good thing nobody gave an 8-year, $136 million dollar contract to a player with a .325 OBA this winter.

Wait a minute. The Cubs did that!

But I forget. Soriano had a good year in 2006 and Giles didn't. It can't be that either of them were flukes. That why Alfonso is worth so much more.

I'm sure Marcus will find his OBA is appreciated in San Diego.

Michael Eglinski sends along this link as Bob Weeks profiles the Bill James of curling.

If you really want to understand how Glenn Howard won last week's Grand Slam of Curling event, the Home Hardware Masters, you should know that his hammer efficiency in the bonspiel was a remarkable 35%. And his force efficiency was a stunning 68%.

This shouldn't come as much of a surprise as Howard's team is ranked No.1 in Canada, statistically speaking.

These numbers and rankings might not mean anything to most curling fans, but if Dallas Bittle has his way, that will soon change.

Bittle, along with his partner Gerry Geurts, are to curling what Bill James is to baseball. For the past few years, they have been developing an entirely new way of looking at curling through statistics.

But please, don't call them statisticians. They're researchers of the game.

"We found there was a void in reporting results and how they were reported," Bittle explained. "We felt there was a need for a better statistical analysis."

See, I told you curling was like baseball!

At Timothy McSweeney's, contract clauses you probably didn't hear about:

If the Big Hurt loses 74 percent or more of his knee cartilage while playing on Toronto's harsh FieldTurf, he will be awarded two brand-new bionic knees, allowing him to fulfill his destiny by competing in the 2008 Summer Olympics and bringing the triple-jump gold medal back home to America, where it belongs.

The Rockies traded Jason Jennings to the Astros for a package of players:

The Astros exchanged Hirsh, right-hander Taylor Buchholz and center fielder Willy Taveras for Jennings and right-hander Miguel Asencio -- a steep price, considering that Jennings is a free agent after this season.

"I wouldn't have traded Hirsh for Jennings straight up," one executive said.

Jennings, 28, will replace left-hander Andy Pettitte, who left the Astros for a two-year, $32 million free-agent contract with the Yankees last Friday. The Astros still could re-sign free-agent right-hander Roger Clemens to join right-hander Roy Oswalt, who will earn $5.5 million next season.

There's a huge problem trying to evaluate Jason Jennings, and it's called Coors Field. However, we can look just at his road record. Even taken out of Coors, it's not pretty. Still the Astros can live with his 0.83 home runs per nine, and hope that at age 28 he's finally coming into his own as a pitcher.

I'm not a Willy Taveras fan, but Coors will help his offense and Willy's defense will help the Rockies pitchers. I must be missing something about Hirsh. While his minor league numbers are good, they don't scream superstar. Maybe the Rockies really like his low home run rate. But his K and BB rates are good, not great.

If the Astros can sign Jennings long term, I think it's a fair trade for both teams.

The Seattle Mariners lost Gil Meche but gained Miguel Batista. I'm not sure who I'd rather have on my team. Meche strikes out batters. Miguel no longer does, unless he's pitching in relief. But Batista is very good at preventing home runs over his career. Given that he's pitched a good number of his innings in places like Arizona and Toronto, that's impressive. In fact, if you put him on the road, he's second in the majors since 1996 to Kevin Brown. It's an okay signing, and they're not overpaying, especially given this market.

The Rangers and Eric Gagne reached an agreement today:

One day after reportedly making an offer to free-agent left-hander Barry Zito, the Rangers have reached preliminary agreement with another Scott Boras client, free-agent closer Eric Gagne, on a one-year, $6 million contract, FOXSports.com has learned.

The deal, which likely is pending a physical, is expected to include approximately $5 million in appearance incentives, bringing the possible total to $11 million, major-league sources said.

So Eric gets a season to prove he can pitch again. If he succeeds, the Rangers pay him a hefty salary and Eric can test the free agent market again. If he doesn't, the Rangers look for another solution and they're not out that much money. Seems like just the right kind of contract for the situation.

Jon Weisman will miss the closer.

Scott Boras is playing the Red Sox front office like a Stradivarius. By doing nothing, he's gotten the Red Sox to:

1. Raise their offer to Matsuzaka.
2. Negotiate on his home turf.
3. Negotiate on his terms.

And the Red Sox know it (emphasis added).

Epstein said that he and Lucchino intend to present a new offer to Boras today, even though the club never received a counter offer to its original proposal. The offer, Epstein said, is of "considerable magnitude," describing it as the biggest offer given to a player who has never played in the big leagues and larger than any offer given to a Japanese player.

"It's highly unusual," Epstein said of submitting a second offer without receiving a response to the first, "but it's showing that Matsuzaka is extremely important to the Boston Red Sox. It's normally not a good ploy, but we want to demonstrate to Matsuzaka, and the fans of Japanese baseball, just how important he is to us."

It's not a ploy when you cave. The Red Sox upper management flew to California to get it done. So far, the only people moving in these non-negotiations are the Red Sox. Boras has them over a barrel and knows it. At this point, I would not be surprised if Matsuzaka ended up with a contract worth between $75 and $100 million dollars.

The Giants are getting very close to their salary budget:

The Giants have budgeted a payroll of about $85 million, with some wiggle room. If Bonds were to maximize his incentives and defer nothing, the Giants would have $86 million already committed to just 15 players. The club's payroll has never eclipsed $90 million.

Looks like they'll pay a number of players close to the minimum this season.

Jay Payton joins the Orioles for a reasonable amount of money:

"Jay fits our need for a right-handed hitting outfielder," said Mike Flanagan, the team executive vice president for baseball operations. "The fact that he hits for average against both lefties and righties and his versatility to play all over the outfield is a real plus."

The 34-year-old Payton gets $4.5 million next year and $5 million in 2008.

Unfortunately, Payton does not fit the need for an outfielder who can actually contribute much offensively. Outside of his time in Colorado, Payton doesn't get on base much nor does he hit for power. His .284 batting average represents the majority of his offensive ability. To the Orioles credit, they're not overpaying for what they're getting.

The Dodgers will not file tampering charges in the case of J.D. Drew.

The Red Sox and Boras denied any impropriety, which would have been difficult to prove. The Dodgers hadn't seriously considered asking Major League Baseball to investigate until a column last week in the New York Times suggested tampering had occurred, leading General Manager Ned Colletti to say Friday, 'We've looked into' filing charges.

Drew leaving his contract in a week free agent season with teams awash in money makes perfect sense.

I noticed the link posted is to the main page. The defensive statistics mentioned are here. Please take a look around the site as well, and remember to vote for your favorite sports blog!

Defensive charts for each player by position in 2006 are now available for your viewing pleasure. Click here and you will be able to select a player by position. As always, I welcome your comments and suggestions. The 2004 charts were done differently and are available here. I'm going to try to make each year's charts available in the same format. Just to be clear:

• 2008 Defensive Charts
• 2007 Defensive Charts
• 2006 Defensive Charts
• 2004 Defensive Charts

Enjoy!

Update Jan 10, 2008: Added charts for 2007.

Via MetsBlog.com, The Ragsly Reader discusses the Mets fan crush on Barry Zito:

Mets fans want you, Barry. They want you to bring your desirable self (your pitching skills, your actress/model-dating skills and high Q rating) to this greatest city. They want you on the Shea Stadium mound. They want you illuminated under their city's bright lights like you deserve. They promise to treat you right. They know you're not like other ballplayers, Barry. And they daydream about the stability and youth you can bring to their starting rotation.

But the fans and the team don't want to overpay for you, Barry. They want you to realize that what they offer is more than just money. It all sounds so right. It could all be so right. If you only say yes.

He'll want more than Pettitte, however.

Barry Bonds' contract with the Giants is not quite a done deal:

Here's a new one: teams asking for an indictment clause in player contracts.

That's apparently one issue that's holding up Barry Bonds' $16 million re-signing with the Giants from becoming official. There are others, too. The Giants want fewer of Bonds' personal employees in the clubhouse and a guarantee that he won't refuse to pinch hit, like he did last year.

For his part, Bonds wants reporters to be banned from asking him questions at his locker and control over some potentially historic memorabilia as he begins the 2007 season 22 home runs shy of breaking Hank Aaron's all-time best 755.

Sounds like I've heard these contract negotiations before:

Chico: Wait. What does this say here?

Groucho: That? That's the usual clause.
That's in every contract.
That just says, "If any of the parties...
"participating in this contract...
"are shown not to be in their right mind...
"the entire agreement
is automatically nullified."

Chico: I don't know.

Groucho: It's all right. That's in every contract.
That's what they call a sanity clause.

Chico: You can't fool me.
There ain't no Sanity Claus.

Jay's Giants Blog prints a great story about the extreme of weather baseball fans once endured at Candelstick Park.

As far as warm weather fans being soft, I attended a game at BankOne (now Chase) a few years ago. It was in late May, so by the time the game started, the outside temperature was 85 degrees Farenheit. The Diamondbacks opened the roof to let in a gentle breeze, prompting some women in the crowd to don sweaters. I guess it was a dry cold.

Brew Crew Ball notes that with the Rangers on the verge of signing Kenny Lofton, the Brewers will most certainly move Bill Hall to centerfield.

The Korea Herald sees 2007 as Hee-Seop Choi's last chance to establish himself as a major leaguer:

The thing about being in Choi's position is that once he gets an opportunity, he must hit right away.

Managers can no longer say that he is maturing as a big-league hitter or that he just hasn't found his stroke yet.

Choi needs to understand that he isn't a wide-eyed pup anymore. In fact, if he doesn't raise some eyebrows this year, he may be calling the Korea Baseball Organization home for the rest of his career.

Producing in spring training wouldn't hurt, either.

Blogging was light today as I've been working on creating charts for each player/position/batted ball type to give you a good visual the Probabilistic Model of Range. Here's a sample of a chart (click on the chart for a full size version):

Over the next couple of days I should have these set up where you pick a player's name and position and see all the charts for that position.

Via Firebrand of the American League, it appears the Matsuzaka negotiations hit an iceberg:

Negotiations between the Red Sox [team stats] and Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka have essentially broken down, a source familiar with the talks said late last night, adding that unless there is an abrupt change of course, Matsuzaka will not be signing with the Red Sox before Thursday's midnight deadline. Attempts to reach Matsuzaka's agent, Scott Boras, were unsuccessful last night. However, the well-placed source blamed Boras for stubbornly being unable to get over the flaws in the Japanese posting system, saying that he has been unwilling to negotiate and that he has acted disinterested in even making a deal.

Now, if I remember correctly from the Theo-Red Sox negotiations last year, the Herald uses Epstein or people close to Epstein as sources, while the Globe uses Lucchino's people. So this is probably coming from the GM in an effort to get Boras to move. Scott, however, will wait until the last minute to see just how much he can get. It's a cat and mouse game right now, and the one piece of information we don't have is the level of Matsuzaka's desire to play in the United States. If he's told Boras he wants to play in the Major Leagues no matter what, then the Red Sox just need to wait. If he's willing to go back to Japan, then Boston needs to get closer to what he wants. We'll all know late Thursday. The Boston Globe is counting down the hours here.

It's not clear how well the Devil Rays are developing their on-field talent, but off field they appear to be making the right moves:

This week, the team is expected to announce plans to move a regular-season series from St. Petersburg to Orlando, part of a territorial expansion that has seen their Single A affiliate move from Southwest Michigan to Vero Beach, while the team completes plans to shift its spring-training home from St. Petersburg to Port Charlotte by 2009.

''We do have a strategy to become a team that can draw upon the strength of the region,'' team president Matt Silverman said. ``And we have targeted initiatives to reach . . . out of the Tampa Bay area. Orlando and Charlotte County are two pivotal positions in our regional strategy.

``But we have many other ideas that we're going to roll out in the coming months and years to create that sense of attachment to the region.''

They're outreach to Orlando last year helped them increase attendance by 25%. If they can do that again, they'll be over 20,000 per game, which isn't great but it's acceptable. The article shows this management team is taking a slow but steady approach. With luck, that will work better on the field than the earlier "sign vets to try to win now" gambit.

Ken Rosenthal tries to explain why the Gil Meche deal with the Royals might make sense.

Two years ago, critics bemoaned the Mets' signing of right-hander Kris Benson for $22.5 million over three years, complaining that it raised the bar for other mediocre pitchers.

Guess what?

Benson's deal, which includes a $7.5 million option, now resembles a bargain.

Ditto for the Blue Jays' signing of free-agent closer B.J. Ryan to a five-year, $47 million contract last off-season.

Ditto for the Astros' signing of right-hander Roy Oswalt to a five-year, $73 million deal last summer.

Ditto for virtually every contract awarded prior to this winter's salary eruption.

At the moment, the Meche contract looks horrible. But let's see how we view it two, three years from now.

Of course, all those contract went to either very good players or, in the case of Benson, a decent player. Meche is none of those. If he turns out to pitch as poorly as he's pitched in the past, the contract will be a colossal waste of money, no matter what the market does.

The LA Times takes a close look at the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) and finds it's not without problems:

What has evolved to protect competitive purity since then is a closed, quasi-judicial system without American-style checks and balances. Anti-doping authorities act as prosecutors, judge and jury, enforcing rules that they have written, punishing violations based on sometimes questionable scientific tests that they develop and certify themselves, while barring virtually all outside appeals or challenges.

It's a very interesting read, especially the part about nandrolone:

A statistical surge in nandrolone cases "allowed the testing program to puff out its chest and say, 'Look at how much we're doing,' " said Charles Yesalis, professor emeritus of health policy and administration at Penn State University and a leading expert on drug abuse in sports.

Studies performed by UCLA's Catlin and by researchers at the Cologne lab, then under the International Olympic Committee, showed in 2000 and 2002 that a wide range of nutritional supplements commonly taken by elite athletes were contaminated with nandrolone and other steroids.

Catlin's research, furthermore, made clear that it was not difficult for tests to distinguish a contamination victim from a cheater. His paper noted that an athlete taking nandrolone in a determined effort to cheat would show levels higher than 100,000 nanograms per milliliter, or parts per billion, of urine.

WADA's threshold for a doping violation, however, had been set in single digits: 2 parts per billion for men and 5 for women. It remains at that level today.

And anti-doping officials have continued to bring cases against athletes for positive tests almost certainly derived from contamination or for steroid levels that could not possibly have any performance-enhancing effect.

I'm glad baseball resisted the efforts of some to bring ballplayers under WADA. I'd actually like to see drug test results released, as in the case of Floyd Landis. Then experts outside WADA can comment on the results, rather than just taking the agencies word for it.

Thanks to Adam Sperling for the link.

Correction: Included link to article.

Athletics Nation solicits nominations for the Alex Sanchez award:

Really, there has to be an Alex Sanchez Award, so that Neifi Perez can actually be acknowledged for his ability to maintain gainful employment 10 years in a row while sporting a career OPS of .681. Somehow we need an excuse to celebrate Scott Elarton, whose pitching motion and ERA are about equally funny, and John Wasdin, whose bobblehead is actually positioned so he is gazing at the left-center field bleachers.

Kissing Suzy Kolber takes the low road in using a picture of a beautiful woman to entice readers to vote for them for best sports blog. Well, two can play at that game:

Phoebe wants you to vote for you favorite sports blog.

But it doesn't stop there. Here's what he has to say about Baseball Musings:

About the site's author: Used to work for STATS, Inc. Used to work for ESPN. Writes about baseball. Doesn't tell jokes.

Listen, I'm not going to say it's a lame blog, because there are all sorts of basement-dwelling library-masturbating freaks who get off on paying attention to baseball stats. I'm sure it's a very good blog. On the other hand, it's our duty as Americans to ensure that this doesn't win best sports blog. Every vote for Baseball Musings is a vote for Al Gore when Chad Johnson is on the ballot.

Al Gore?!?!?! I'd like to see Al do this joke:

What's an algorithm?

A vice-presidential method of birth control!

And I'm sure some of the readers of this blog don't dwell in basements. So remember to cast your vote for your favorite sports blog once a day.

I'm David Pinto, and I approve this message.

It looks like the Cubs are about to sign Jason Marquis to a three-year deal, somewhere between $6 million to $9 million a year. Imagine what Jason would earn if his ERA was under six! Jason's made four starts at Wrigley in his career, and I wouldn't call him effective there.

Don't forget to vote for your favorite blogs at The 2006 Weblog Awards. You can vote once a day up until Dec. 15, 2006.

U.S.S. Mariner started a campaign to replace Bill Bavasi, the Seattle GM with Chris Antonetti of the Indians.

Antonetti is going to be labeled as a "Moneyball" executive by the media, as he did not play professional baseball and has advanced degrees from elite universities. He got a bachelors in business administration from Georgetown and a masters in sports management from Massachusets, learning the academic side of how to be a successful manager. From there, he took a low level job with the Montreal Expos in their minor league operations department before joining the Indians organization in 1999 as, essentially, an intern. From 1999 until now, he has worked his way from the title of Assistant, Baseball Operations to Assistant GM (a position he earned in 2002), and has held numerous roles during that time. The Indians have had him work in both administrative and player development positions, and he's spent numerous hours working with both scouts and statistical analysts.

No one understands how to use both subjective scouting information and quantifiable statistical data together as well as the Indians, and Antonetti has been successful in both sides of the baseball operations department. Under the leadership of John Hart and now Mark Shapiro, the Indians have become baseball's most well-oiled machine. Antonetti has been a vital cog in that machine for the past seven years.

6-4-2 Is worried about Antonetti's press skills:

Having watched while the lazy, prejudiced LA media filleted Paul DePodesta from without (starting on the very first day), and very likely, Tommy Lasorda busied himself undermining DePo from within, I note in passing the author presents no evidence to support this assertion. While I imagine the Seattle reporters are far tamer than the abject hacks and character assassins masquerading as newspaper writers down here, at some point, the wins have to flow or else blood will.

Some of that is always chance; if you get lucky, your opponents have their own afflictions, and worse than yours. But Seattle is uniquely unlucky now, in that Arte has a big bankroll and is plying his trade in ever-wider swaths of the largest media market in the division, the A's hope to harvest the fruits of their new park soon, and the Rangers have a sort of idiot Roman emperor as an owner, willing to spend with or without result. The hook, no matter who they haul in to replace Bavasi, perhaps as early as the middle of next year, will be shorter in coming than it was for the job's current occupant. Giving that to someone of unknown press relations skills is perhaps asking for even more trouble.

Press skills can be learned. The difference between ESPN and Fox on air personnel is that Fox tends to take people who know television and teaches them sports, while ESPN takes people who know sports and teaches them television. Whatever Chris' abilities are right now to handle the press, he can learn how to deal with them. The Mariners, if they are going to make a change, should concentrate on hiring someone who knows baseball inside and out. Then send them for a crash course on talking to the press. Antonetti's smart enough to learn that.

The Cleveland Indians took home the Organization of the Year award from Topps. The Indians minor league players won more Topps awards during the season than any other farm system:

The Indians' individual winners were Jason Dubois (Class AAA All-Star), Andy Marte (June player of month) and Jeremy Sowers (May player of month) of the Buffalo Bisons; Kevin Kouzmanoff (May player of month) and Adam Miller (Class AA All-Star and July player of month) of the Akron Aeros; Brian Barton (Class A All-Star), Jordan Brown (August player of month), Ryan Goleski (May player of month) and Chuck Lofgren (Class A All-Star); and Neil Wagner (Class A All-Star) of the Mahoning Valley Scrappers.

Lou Piniella appears to be the person who encouraged Jim Hendry to go to the hospital:

A friend of Hendry's told us that the GM hadn't been feeling very good for the past few days. Gary Hughes, Hendry's special assistant, said that Hendry thought he had indigestion Tuesday night at dinner and that Hughes and Piniella discussed taking the GM to the hospital then.

No, no, Hendry told them, and by later Tuesday night, he was feeling better. But the discomfort was back when he woke up Wednesday morning.

"We drove him over to the hospital," Piniella said. "We were concerned. It turned out to be the right decision."

Maybe it will be the most important decision Piniella makes as Cubs manager, and he nailed it. If even 75 percent of his decisions in the manager's chair are this on the mark, maybe this really can be the Cubs' year.

Scott Miller also notes that the Cubs have spent more money on players this off season than Tampa Bay spent in Piniella's entire tenure.

The Tigers sign Brandon Inge to a four-year, $24 million contract.

"It's awesome to get this done because Detroit is the only place I wanted to play," Inge told The Associated Press on Friday. "This organization stuck by me through tough times and for them to still believe in me when times are good, it's really gratifying.

"The deal is basically done because the only thing that would hold it up would be a problem with the physical that I took today, but I can't see that there would be any problem with that."

Inge was eligible for arbitration and would have been eligible for free agency after next season.

Brandon developed a decent home run stroke in 2006. However, he is an out machine, which is why he's not getting elephant bucks. He's a good third baseman, however. During the playoffs someone said that Inge made so many errors because he got to a lot of balls. Given that his range was good, that indeed may be the case. So the Tigers own a solid defensive third baseman with some pop for $6 million a year. Not bad in today's market, and I bet Brandon would do a lot better if he opted for free agency next season.

Here's the outs table for rightfielders:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Rightfielders. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Out Difference	Out Ratio
Carlos J Quentin	1156	96	87.98	8.02	109.12
Ryan Freel	1122	101	92.89	8.11	108.73
Jay Payton	1173	89	82.55	6.45	107.82
Damon J Hollins	1440	134	125.21	8.79	107.02
Juan Encarnacion	3085	219	206.96	12.04	105.82
Moises Alou	2026	154	147.83	6.17	104.18
Jose Guillen	1774	164	157.88	6.12	103.87
Ichiro Suzuki	3252	250	241.19	8.81	103.65
Reggie Sanders	1942	170	164.27	5.73	103.49
Mark DeRosa	1654	125	120.88	4.12	103.41
Alex I Rios	2862	218	210.94	7.06	103.35
Jacque Jones	3476	275	266.89	8.11	103.04
J.D. Drew	3472	284	276.20	7.80	102.83
Joe Borchard	1060	84	81.92	2.08	102.54
Emil Brown	1349	110	108.41	1.59	101.46
Vladimir Guerrero	3258	253	249.59	3.41	101.37
Randy Winn	1996	184	181.86	2.14	101.18
Austin Kearns	3928	346	342.73	3.27	100.96
Casey Blake	2586	210	208.24	1.76	100.85
Geoff Jenkins	3333	247	245.22	1.78	100.73
Milton Bradley	2518	191	190.14	0.86	100.45
Bobby Abreu	4047	293	292.75	0.25	100.08
Jermaine Dye	3915	305	305.35	-0.35	99.89
Nick Markakis	2843	240	240.60	-0.60	99.75
Brad B Hawpe	3769	280	281.37	-1.37	99.51
Jeff B Francoeur	4434	317	318.59	-1.59	99.50
Trot Nixon	2700	212	214.27	-2.27	98.94
Jason Lane	2049	155	157.68	-2.68	98.30
Russell Branyan	1163	87	88.64	-1.64	98.15
Jeremy R Hermida	2003	157	160.05	-3.05	98.09
Xavier Nady	2560	187	191.96	-4.96	97.42
Michael Cuddyer	3637	245	251.88	-6.88	97.27
Shawn Green	3393	220	226.92	-6.92	96.95
Jay Gibbons	1107	97	100.99	-3.99	96.05
Magglio Ordonez	3893	258	268.74	-10.74	96.00
Kevin Mench	1541	112	119.34	-7.34	93.85
Brian Giles	4169	298	318.55	-20.55	93.55
Bernie Williams	1347	98	104.84	-6.84	93.48
Jeromy Burnitz	1988	120	137.33	-17.33	87.38

Andy Pettitte is heading back to New York:

The left-hander and the Yankees have reached an agreement on a one-year deal that will pay him $16 million in 2007 with a player option for 2008, sources close to the negotiations told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney on Friday.

The player option for 2008 is also at $16 million. Pettitte must pass a physical for the agreement to be finalized.

It's a good deal for the Yankees. It's not a long term commitment, and it gives the Bronx Bombers four solid starters. Pettitte's strikeouts are still high, although his walks and homers were up in 2006. I like it because if Pettitte pitches well, he can decide to try for a bigger payday next season. If he pitches poorly, the Yankees are only stuck with him for two seasons. As my friend Jim Storer commented, it's also a great PR move, as lots of Yankees fans love Andy.

Here's the outs table for centerfielders:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Out Difference	Out Ratio
Shane Victorino	1691	161	142.02	18.98	113.37
Ichiro Suzuki	1017	114	105.32	8.68	108.24
Carlos Beltran	3517	357	339.18	17.82	105.25
Brian N Anderson	2996	305	293.22	11.78	104.02
Corey Patterson	3360	345	331.93	13.07	103.94
Johnny Damon	3378	306	294.61	11.39	103.86
Randy Winn	1366	137	131.98	5.02	103.81
Ryan Freel	1211	127	122.76	4.24	103.45
Marlon Byrd	1272	125	120.87	4.13	103.41
Coco Crisp	2814	246	238.19	7.81	103.28
Joey R Gathright	3272	341	330.21	10.79	103.27
Brady Clark	2748	250	243.70	6.30	102.58
Willy Taveras	3304	335	327.09	7.91	102.42
Curtis Granderson	4014	385	376.01	8.99	102.39
Andruw Jones	4109	377	369.40	7.60	102.06
Rocco Baldelli	2368	228	223.60	4.40	101.97
Aaron Rowand	2742	251	247.27	3.73	101.51
Jim Edmonds	2471	223	219.79	3.21	101.46
Mike Cameron	3723	367	362.92	4.08	101.12
Eric Byrnes	3208	270	267.57	2.43	100.91
Juan Pierre	4103	380	377.29	2.71	100.72
Alfredo Amezaga	1580	155	153.92	1.08	100.70
Gary Matthews Jr.	3909	333	332.10	0.90	100.27
Chone Figgins	2455	242	241.43	0.57	100.24
Choo Freeman	1021	101	101.08	-0.08	99.92
Reggie D Abercrombie	1833	172	172.25	-0.25	99.85
Vernon Wells	3918	332	332.89	-0.89	99.73
Torii Hunter	3715	343	344.56	-1.56	99.55
Chris Duffy	2053	166	166.80	-0.80	99.52
Nate McLouth	1072	84	84.56	-0.56	99.34
Grady Sizemore	4455	409	412.99	-3.99	99.03
So Taguchi	1095	90	91.04	-1.04	98.86
Steve Finley	3013	287	290.77	-3.77	98.70
Jay Payton	1196	104	105.67	-1.67	98.42
Mark Kotsay	3261	281	288.40	-7.40	97.43
Ryan M Church	1172	122	127.23	-5.23	95.89
David DeJesus	1561	149	156.42	-7.42	95.26
Jeremy T Reed	1535	129	135.86	-6.86	94.95
Rob Mackowiak	1415	119	126.37	-7.37	94.17
Cory Sullivan	2666	225	239.39	-14.39	93.99
Jose A Bautista	1323	114	121.31	-7.31	93.98
Kenny Lofton	2999	241	257.05	-16.05	93.76
Ken Griffey Jr.	2753	229	250.78	-21.78	91.32

Here's the outs table for leftfielders:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Out Difference	Out Ratio
Melky Cabrera	3063	217	198.64	18.36	109.24
Dave Roberts	2887	239	219.66	19.34	108.81
Brandon W Fahey	1164	101	93.56	7.44	107.96
Matt Diaz	1798	163	151.27	11.73	107.75
Reed Johnson	1915	129	120.94	8.06	106.66
Emil Brown	2359	163	152.84	10.16	106.65
Luke B Scott	1188	81	76.76	4.24	105.53
Jason Bay	4269	316	299.59	16.41	105.48
Ryan Langerhans	2240	156	148.87	7.13	104.79
Jason Michaels	3283	214	208.11	5.89	102.83
Andre E Ethier	2779	172	168.24	3.76	102.23
Matt Murton	3026	240	234.98	5.02	102.13
David DeJesus	1736	138	136.42	1.58	101.15
Frank Catalanotto	2308	140	138.53	1.47	101.06
So Taguchi	1141	87	86.31	0.69	100.79
Alfonso Soriano	4405	326	325.21	0.79	100.24
Nick T Swisher	2035	170	169.92	0.08	100.05
Matt T Holliday	4234	277	276.97	0.03	100.01
Cliff Floyd	2280	148	148.21	-0.21	99.86
Carl Crawford	4006	302	302.84	-0.84	99.72
Brad Wilkerson	2106	139	139.59	-0.59	99.58
Garret Anderson	2377	192	193.18	-1.18	99.39
Raul Ibanez	4289	302	304.45	-2.45	99.20
Juan Rivera	1440	126	127.34	-1.34	98.95
Luis Gonzalez	4063	256	259.76	-3.76	98.55
Preston Wilson	2639	156	158.77	-2.77	98.25
Josh D Willingham	3255	206	210.68	-4.68	97.78
Scott Podsednik	3417	245	252.50	-7.50	97.03
Barry Bonds	2708	188	194.71	-6.71	96.56
Pat Burrell	2990	205	212.40	-7.40	96.51
Chris E Duncan	1015	66	68.47	-2.47	96.39
Jay Payton	1442	119	123.80	-4.80	96.12
Kevin Mench	1217	80	83.30	-3.30	96.04
Jeff Conine	1436	88	92.18	-4.18	95.47
Carlos Lee	3883	227	240.61	-13.61	94.34
Craig Monroe	2909	168	178.63	-10.63	94.05
Adam Dunn	4132	279	300.46	-21.46	92.86
Marcus Thames	1193	70	76.87	-6.87	91.07
Manny Ramirez	3151	175	194.87	-19.87	89.80
Bobby Kielty	1030	80	92.02	-12.02	86.94

The Dodgers may file a grievence against the Red Sox over J.D. Drew:

The Boston Red Sox might still view the New York Yankees as the Evil Empire. But other Major League Baseball people apparently think of the Red Sox as a team that can operate outside of the rules, according to a report in The New York Times.

One unnamed general manager told the newspaper that several people at the recently completed winter meetings urged the Los Angeles Dodgers to file a tampering charge against the Red Sox after veteran J.D. Drew signed with them.

"We haven't reached a decision yet," Ned Colletti, the Dodgers' general manager, told The Times before leaving the winter meetings in Orlando, Fla.

Theo denies the charges. It seems to me Drew opting out of his contract made perfect sense.

Jose Uribe died in a car accident today:

The Dominican National Police said the 47-year-old Uribe's sport utility vehicle crashed about 3 a.m. on a highway about 30 miles west of the capital, Santo Domingo. Police said the cause of the crash was under investigation.

Uribe's death was confirmed by Glovis Reyes, a longtime friend of the ballplayer and a former member of the Dominican Congress.

Uribe's wife died after giving birth to their third child in 1988. Now their father dies young as well. That's too much tragedy for any family. My thoughts go out to them, the rest of the Uribe family and his friends.

The Orioles are seeking a restraining order to stop the purchase of a new video screen for Camden Yards:

The Maryland Stadium Authority agreed yesterday to move forward with the purchase of a new Mitsubishi video screen for Camden Yards despite objections from the Orioles.

Orioles officials say the DiamondVision screen is too small and technologically inadequate and plan to file a temporary restraining order in Baltimore Circuit Court today to block the $1.5 million purchase. The restraining order would give the Orioles time to move the dispute to arbitration as is called for in the team's lease for the stadium.

The team is looking a bit greedy here:

McKinney defended the screen, noting that its picture resolution would be the best in baseball. The Mitsubishi screen would be similar to, though smaller than, the video display at Atlanta's Turner Field. It would feature a higher-resolution picture than the screens at M&T Bank Stadium, McKinney said. The screen would be equipped to receive a high-definition picture, he added.

He emphasized that the screen, which will be about the size of the existing 23-by-31-foot JumboTron, could easily be expanded. But the Orioles and the authority also disagree over how the bill for any extra screen space should be divided. The Orioles say the authority should pay for it because the club's park lease promises facilities that are in the top 25 percent in Major League Baseball.

The authority believes it's required only to replace the JumboTron and any size enhancements should be paid for out of a $10 million fund allotted to the team for ballpark improvements.

McKinney emphasized that three Orioles officials sat on the committee that unanimously selected the Mitsubishi screen. The panel traveled to Miami, Atlanta and Montreal to examine options. But the team objected to the purchase at the last possible moment, McKinney said. He said the club wants a bigger screen and wants the authority to pay for it.

"It's a shame we couldn't have had these discussions when the process first started," he said.

Maybe the Orioles should put this much effort into putting a good team on the field. Then maybe someone will want to watch what's on the big screen.

Barry Bonds reached an agreement with the San Francisco Giants overnight. He'll earn between $16 and $20 million dollars, depending on what incentives are reached.

I'm a bit surprised he wound up getting that much money. It didn't seem like there was that strong a market for Barry. But the Giants need someone to play leftfield, and they're not much of a team without the slugger.

Ray Ratto puts the deal on Magown's shoulders:

Sabean's signing decisions, to re-up with Ray Durham and Pedro Feliz and scoop up Dave Roberts and Rich Aurilia and Bengie Molina, had been savaged as short-sighted by the kind and a filthy lie by the suspicious. Giants fans had been told by Magowan that a new day was a'dawnin', and that you'd all come to like it.

Only Sabean knew something nobody thought conceivable -- that Bonds still had his hold over Magowan, so much so that the owner couldn't walk away. Sabean knew that the bank had already been spoken for, because he got to be in the meetings where Topic A was discussed ad nauseam, and that Magowan wasn't ready for a new direction at all. There was still juice to be squeezed from this pineapple, and it would end up in Magowan's glass come hell or high water.

It will never be known whether Bonds' agent, Jeff Borris, had another offer for Bonds, one with which he could tantalize the Giants. Borris' work on that secret other bidder had been wholly unconvincing, especially when Bonds decided to go Project Runway through the winter meetings.

But we forgot that Borris wasn't trying to sell us. He was trying to sell Magowan, and Magowan had always been Bonds' ATM.

So Magowan talked tough. He let Sabean make runs at Carlos Lee and Juan Pierre, and enjoyed the Manny Ramirez and Barry Zito rumors. But as we have always known, Magowan was and is the point man on Bonds, and it is Magowan who is responsible for this new bit of mega-largesse.

One more year, at $16 million, plus a potential $4 million in extra candy. Fiscal discipline that, laughing boy.

If you're looking for a new start for the Giants, all I can say is, wait 'til next year.

The Winter Meetings left Bill Bavasi with a bad feelings:

"This was one of the more miserable winter meetings I've ever been to," Mariners GM Bill Bavasi said. "Between the lack of activity and the volcanic (free agent) market, it was tough."

Was there any upside at all?

"We're not done," said Bavasi, who hopes to land another starter, and who might go after a right-handed reliever now that Soriano is gone.

At least they weren't horrible:

I feel that life is divided into the horrible and the miserable. That's the two categories. The horrible be like, I don't know, terminal cases, you know, and blind people, crippled. I don't know how they get through life. It's amazing to me. And the miserable is everyone else. So you should be thankful that you're miserable, because that's very lucky, to be miserable.

Of course, it's possible that miserable meetings lead to horrible teams.

Dontrelle Willis marries today. Congratulations, and many happy years!

It seems someone nominated Baseball Musings for best sports blog. Thanks so much to those who put this site in the top ten. Be sure to vote for your favorite!

Here's the outs table for the shortstops.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Out Difference	Out Ratio
Bill Hall	3311	404	377.82	26.18	106.93
Adam Everett	3801	500	467.66	32.34	106.92
Juan Castro	1743	205	192.64	12.36	106.42
Khalil Greene	3007	352	332.02	19.98	106.02
Julio Lugo	2103	253	242.98	10.02	104.13
Craig Counsell	2274	310	297.95	12.05	104.04
Jason A Bartlett	2570	348	334.94	13.06	103.90
Ben T Zobrist	1395	173	166.54	6.46	103.88
Alex Cora	1338	163	157.05	5.95	103.79
Carlos Guillen	3808	465	449.34	15.66	103.49
Clint Barmes	3411	404	392.62	11.38	102.90
Omar Vizquel	3974	441	429.14	11.86	102.76
Jhonny Peralta	4086	533	522.47	10.53	102.01
Yuniesky Betancourt	4225	501	491.93	9.07	101.84
Alex Gonzalez	2991	350	343.78	6.22	101.81
John McDonald	2024	237	232.99	4.01	101.72
Rafael Furcal	4257	538	529.11	8.89	101.68
Edgar Renteria	3958	446	441.08	4.92	101.12
Juan Uribe	3553	429	424.93	4.07	100.96
David Eckstein	3222	385	381.39	3.61	100.95
Jack Wilson	3485	454	451.20	2.80	100.62
Hanley Ramirez	4016	466	465.15	0.85	100.18
Orlando Cabrera	3903	433	434.02	-1.02	99.77
Michael Young	4307	536	538.40	-2.40	99.55
Ronny Cedeno	3258	398	400.82	-2.82	99.30
Bobby Crosby	2595	307	311.18	-4.18	98.66
Jose Reyes	3887	443	449.24	-6.24	98.61
Geoff Blum	1168	149	151.32	-2.32	98.47
Angel Berroa	3670	412	418.66	-6.66	98.41
Royce Clayton	3338	400	407.20	-7.20	98.23
Miguel Tejada	4027	465	475.33	-10.33	97.83
Jimmy Rollins	4206	499	510.75	-11.75	97.70
Derek Jeter	4009	450	468.35	-18.35	96.08
Stephen Drew	1475	161	168.09	-7.09	95.78
Aaron W Hill	1273	140	148.94	-8.94	94.00
Felipe Lopez	4245	438	472.63	-34.63	92.67
Marco Scutaro	1773	207	224.85	-17.85	92.06

Continuing to put up the outs table for all fielders, here's the one for the second basemen.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Out Difference	Out Ratio
Tony Graffanino	1702	186	165.06	20.94	112.68
Aaron W Hill	2777	358	334.22	23.78	107.12
Jamey Carroll	2806	396	370.20	25.80	106.97
Mark Grudzielanek	3595	367	344.87	22.13	106.42
Orlando Hudson	4128	552	520.38	31.62	106.08
Chase Utley	4151	476	451.34	24.66	105.46
Jose Valentin	2367	316	301.32	14.68	104.87
Mark Ellis	3407	390	376.45	13.55	103.60
Joe S Inglett	1349	157	151.57	5.43	103.58
Jose C Lopez	4045	473	457.26	15.74	103.44
Neifi Perez	1374	166	160.56	5.44	103.39
Robinson Cano	3160	385	373.02	11.98	103.21
Luis Castillo	3663	416	403.31	12.69	103.15
Placido Polanco	2838	373	363.35	9.65	102.66
Chris A Burke	1012	128	125.30	2.70	102.16
Brandon Phillips	3791	404	397.11	6.89	101.73
Jose Castillo	3832	387	384.20	2.80	100.73
Tadahito Iguchi	3782	428	425.35	2.65	100.62
Dan C Uggla	3935	485	482.86	2.14	100.44
Brian Roberts	3634	398	396.92	1.08	100.27
Josh L Barfield	3755	442	441.53	0.47	100.11
Ian M Kinsler	3288	424	426.80	-2.80	99.34
Adam Kennedy	3386	406	409.98	-3.98	99.03
Marcus Giles	3589	412	417.71	-5.71	98.63
Ray Durham	3525	393	401.46	-8.46	97.89
Craig Biggio	3162	360	369.43	-9.43	97.45
Jeff Kent	2811	325	335.51	-10.51	96.87
Aaron Miles	2016	238	246.01	-8.01	96.74
Mark Loretta	3578	401	415.16	-14.16	96.59
Hector Luna	1487	151	157.64	-6.64	95.79
Rickie Weeks	2402	263	275.27	-12.27	95.54
Ronnie Belliard	3860	448	472.37	-24.37	94.84
Kaz Matsui	1403	169	179.09	-10.09	94.36
Jose Vidro	2905	305	327.48	-22.48	93.13
Jorge L Cantu	2859	283	307.27	-24.27	92.10
Ty Wigginton	1075	105	116.62	-11.62	90.04
Todd Walker	1279	128	144.79	-16.79	88.40

I had techinical difficulties with the show last night, so I re-recorded an abbreviated version here.

Waffling at the Baseball Toaster over Luis Gonzalez.

The Royals are planning on paying Gil Meche $9 million a year for five years. I wish I were a mediocre pitcher. If Meche can get his walks down, he'd be pretty good. It seems to me, however, that the Royals could find a better way to spend the $9 million.

If they were in playoff contention, where the only thing they needed to put them over the top was a fourth starter, I can see it. But the Royals are pretty far away from that. They need to make more deals like the one for Bannister. He's an okay pitcher that's cheap, who will fill a need until they're ready to win. Locking up Meche for five years just means five years of okay to bad pitching. Then again, given the state of the Royals staff, Gil is an improvement. He really should be seen as a stop gap, however.

Update: It's worse than I thought:

Kansas City Royals agreed to terms with right-hander Gil Meche on a five-year deal worth $55 million on Thursday as baseball's winter meetings neared a conclusion.

Here's what Moore said:

"We were proud to be a part of the process and delighted that Gil Meche made the decision to join the Royals," general manager Dayton Moore said. "He is an impact pitching talent who fits in with our plan for long term success. At 28, he is entering the prime of his career."

At least they're spending some of that revenue sharing money on salary. It would be better, of course, if they spent it to improve the team.

Cubs GM Jim Hendry underwent an angioplasty yesterday.

Chicago Cubs general manager Jim Hendry underwent an angioplasty at an Orlando-area hospital and was recovering Thursday. He closed the deal for left-hander Ted Lilly from the hospital Wednesday night while undergoing a procedure.

"Ted had no idea where (Hendry) was, or anything," said Gary Hughes, a special assistant to Hendry. "It was business as usual."

I don't think he was making the deal while he had a catheter in his heart. Still, it's pretty impressive that a blocked artery can't stop baseball business! Here's wishing Jim a complete recovery. I'm glad we can laugh about this.

The St. Louis Cardinals may be interested in Barry Bonds, leading Will Leitch to question his belief system:

But talk about the ultimate test: It appears our beloved (and defending champion: Woo!) Cardinals are considering making a run at Barry Bonds. To be honest, this was something we had in the back of our mind before word got out that Tony LaRussa wanted to "speak" with the slugger; the Cardinals could use another power bat in the outfield, and LaRussa historically has had few moral qualms with steroid guys on his team. (Though we wonder: As a vegetarian, does he have a problem with Bonds using cattle steroids?) The notion of a Pujols-Bonds one-two punch is, theoretically, terrifying, in pretty much every conventional use of the term.

It's all preliminary, of course, and it still seems unlikely Bonds will be anywhere but San Francisco next year. But the questions remains: Could we root for a rather blatant asshole like Bonds, particularly when almost no one -- including us -- wants him to break Hank Aaron's record next year? After years of going after the guy, could we suddenly switch?

We prefer to think of it as compartmentalizing our brain. In the real world, where human beings peacefully co-exist in an atmosphere of common humility and concern for the collective welfare of all humanity, we would hate Bonds and would find it difficult not to cringe when we see his picture on screen. Fortunately, we have a feeling that we would feel that way about a majority of athletes if we met them in real life; they are not like you and I, after all. Could we make that transformation into a Bonds fan if he were wearing the Cardinals red? With the bases loaded, and Bonds up in the ninth inning, with the Cards down two to the Cubs, in August ... yeah, we could probably make that transformation. We wouldn't feel good about ourselves ... but we could. We accept your scorn. We deserve it.

St. Louis interest in Bonds could be the one thing that drives his price up, as other NL teams decide any price is worth not putting Barry and Albert in the same lineup. (I can just see Edmonds and Rolen dancing around as Barry signs, chanting, "We're going to drive in 200 runs each!")

As for the bovine steroids, a high ranking member of PETA uses insulin derived from research on dogs. I guess they don't want to her animals unless it can save their lives!

Via MetsBlog.com, Luis Gonzalez will continue his career, this time with the Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Dodgers have come to an agreement with outfielder Luis Gonzalez on a one-year deal worth $7 million for the 2007 season, MLB.com has learned.

My first thought when I see the Dodgers sign a veteran is, where are all the players that are supposed to be coming out of this great farm system. But it's a one year deal, and who knows how much Luis will actually play. He's 39, but still a productive player. In this market, $7 million for someone who can actually hit is a good deal.

The rumors about the White Sox trading a starter to the Phillies turned out to be true, but the players going to Chicago were a surprise.

In the first major trade of the winter meetings, the Phillies acquire right hander Freddy Garcia from the White Sox in exchange for right-hander Gavin Floyd and minor-league left-hander Gio Gonzalez.

Floyd, to put it mildly, is a poor major league pitcher. He's walked 64 and allowed 20 home runs in 108 2/3 innings. Yes, he's young, but he's also going to a park a lot like the one in Philadelphia. His minor league numbers are decent, but not blow you away decent.

Gonzalez posted great strikeout numbers in the minors, 10.3 per 9. He in fact, was traded away by the White Sox last year to get Jim Thome. So if you put both deals together, the Phillies get Rowand and Garcia for Thome, Floyd and Gonzalez. Looked at in that light, it seems like a fair deal. The current trade, however, as far as the White Sox are concerned, is strictly for the future. If one of the two youngsters they picked up turns out to be a decent major league pitcher, the deal was worth it.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Update: I'm sorry, the show did not record tonight. It seems there was a problem with my microphone not being plugged in properly.

Update: Thursday, 3:20 PM EST. I've re-recorded an abbreviated version of the show at the same link.

Ted Lilly inked a $40 million, four-year contract with the Chicago Cubs today.

Lilly, 30, has a career 59-58 record in eight major-league seasons with Montreal, the Yankees, Oakland and Toronto. He went 15-13 with a 4.31 ERA for the Blue Jays last season.

I like Ted. He strikes out batters. It seems, however, that he always makes a mistake that winds up in the seats. His 1.4 home runs per 9 innings doesn't seem like a good fit when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley. The price for middle of the rotation pitchers keeps going up.

Ken Rosenthal reports that Mike Piazza is now a member of the Athletics. He'll get $8.5 million to DH this year. He's not quite Frank Thomas, but he's a lot cheaper and can still smack the ball. That puts one more team out of the Barry Bonds derby.

The Baseball Musings Radio Show is coming up in a little while at 8 PM EST. You can leave questions during the show in the TPSRadio Chat Room. I'm going to give the video feed a try tonight as well.

There's a report that Toronto is out of the running for Ted Lilly and it's down to the Cubs and Yankees. I like the fact that the Yankees are returning to their roots and are trying to sign another lefty.

6-4-2 Links to reports on the Dodgers signing Jason Schmidt to a four-year contract. Schmidt went for more dollars and fewer years. He stays on the west coast and moves to another good pitcher's park. Schmidt's stats are going in the wrong direction, however. His strikeouts are going down, and his walks and homers are going up. However, he still strikes out more than enough to be effective.

Meanwhile, Alan Embree takes over as the Athletics LOOGY, moving Kennedy into the rotation in place of Zito. That doesn't sound like a move that will improve the starters. Embree's been great when he pitches for San Diego, posting a 2.44 ERA. But with all his other teams that number is 4.90. Still, Oakland is a big park, so he's likely to be comfortable there.

Correction: Fixed spelling of LOOGY.

One of my co-workers wanted to set up a podcast at Bay Path College, so he convinced our two work study students, Amanda and Jen to record a show. It was very amusing and is likely to be a regular feature, so here's the RSS feed if you'd like to subscribe.

The Cleveland Indians were happier with Joe Borowski's shoulder than the Philiadelphia Phillies and signed the right-hander to a $4 million dollar, one-year deal with an option for 2008. If Joe is healthy, he's a good pitcher. The Indians filled a hole on their team without giving away the farm or the fortune. When Joe is right, he strikes out people without giving up a lot of walks or home runs. That's pretty much what you want from your closer.

The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EST. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

You can stop by the chat room at TPSRadio during the broadcast and leave a comment. Also, feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

And this week, I have a video feed working so if you stop by the chat room, you'll be able to see me on air! I'm told I have a great face for radio. :-)

WasWatching notes that Alex Rodriguez can void his contract after the 2007 season and become a free agent. He postulates that with today's inflated prices, it makes sense for Alex to treat 2007 as a walk year:

Think about this for a minute. Say Alex has an MVP type year for the Yankees in 2007. Would not that be great for him - to hit the open market, with the money being thrown around now, with two "MVP-type" seasons in the last three years under his belt? On the flip side, say that Alex has a terrible time next season in the Bronx. Would not the option to void come in handy - to get away from the Yankees and go to a team that he would choose? And, based on the money out there now, he would not have to move to the poor house to make that happen.

Maybe he'll be the first $30 million a year player.

Ken Rosenthal explains why Barry Bonds appearing at the winter meetings is so unusual.

The only time players of Bonds' stature attend the meetings is when they are introduced after signing a major free-agent contract. Even then, such appearances are rare.

My guess is that Bonds can have a job if he lowers his price to around $10 million for a year. I don't believe teams are willing to pay Barry top dollar for two surgically repaired knees and one repaired elbow, even if he still is a very productive player. Right now, Barry needs a team (to break the home run record) more than a team needs Barry. The GMs will wait to see how low a salary he's willing to take.

The Bannister-Burgos trade is done, and Royals Authority likes the move.

Peter Schmuck rakes Peter Angelos over the coals for being too controlling. He nixed a good trade, and then did this:

The Orioles are back at odds with the Maryland Stadium Authority over the installation of a new video scoreboard at Oriole Park, and the team might go to arbitration to prevent the authority from purchasing the Mitsubishi DiamondVision screen without club approval.

That might seem reasonable enough, considering the Orioles' stadium lease calls for the team to be consulted on such matters, except that there were three Orioles officials on the committee that unanimously approved the selection.

Don't laugh, because this isn't funny anymore. This is the way Angelos has been doing business for most of the past decade, and he is probably the only person inside or outside his organization who doesn't realize how much his disjointed management style has hurt the team, the fans and every merchant who is trying to make a living in the area around the stadium.

Since he pays the bills, he has the right to make the decision. But why hire people to do a job if you're not going to listen to them?

The Royals are working on two deals, one for Brian Bannister, the other for Rodrigo Lopez. The deal with the Mets appears to be closer to completion. Bannister's major league numbers left a lot to be desired as he nearly walked as many as he struck out, and he didn't strike out many. However, his minor league career was very good. Burgos is a high strikeout pitcher coming out of the pen. If Rick Peterson can get the youngster to find his control, he'll be very good. A nice trade, filling holes on both teams.

The holdup on the Lopez deal is the outfielder to be exchanged:

The Royals are believed to have offered outfielder Reggie Sanders for Lopez, but the Orioles appear to prefer Emil Brown.

I'd want Brown, too. He's younger than Sanders, and given a chance to play every day performed decently the last two years. Then again, it's Rodrigo Lopez, so the Orioles should be happy anyone is willing to take him off their hands. Even though his fielding independent ERA was a run lower than his ERA, that still puts it around five. The Royals have plenty of pitchers like that already.

Mr. Irrelevant polled bloggers and compiled the top 40 sports figures of 2006. Enjoy.

Greg Maddux and the Padres finished their deal. Maddux earns $10 million in 2007 and between $6 and $10 million in 2008. Not bad for a 40-year-old+ pitcher. Since he lives in the area, I wonder if Maddux might become the pitching coach when he retires?

It appears the Red Sox are just short a physical of landing both J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo:

The Red Sox reached a preliminary agreement Tuesday with Drew on a contract that could bring him $70 million over the next five years. Although Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein stressed that Drew has not yet taken a physical, he told reporters that Drew is earmarked for the No. 5 spot in the batting order behind David Ortiz and Ramirez.

...

Later Tuesday, the Red Sox reached a $36 million, four-year agreement with shortstop Julio Lugo that was also pending a physical. Details of the agreement were provided to The Associated Press by a person involved in the negotiations who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the deal was not final.

Ortiz, Ramirez and Drew are formidable heart of the order, provided the Red Sox keep Manny. It also seems Boston is willing to take on more salary than they were last season, when they traded down from Damon to Crisp in center.

Lugo did well in the PMR model I've posted so far. Then again, the Red Sox didn't think Edgar Renteria's defense would be a problem in Boston, either. Lugo hits a lot better than Gonzalez, so this should be a huge improvement for the Red Sox at shortstop. Two very good signings by Boston, at least in the short term. Both players are 31, so we'll see how they hold up over a four year contract.

Here's the table for the first basemen.

Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Out Difference	Out Ratio
Lance Niekro	1313	98	82.96	15.04	118.13
Albert Pujols	3864	306	265.59	40.41	115.21
Kendry Morales	1338	124	109.59	14.41	113.15
Derrek Lee	1104	85	76.11	8.89	111.69
Doug Mientkiewicz	2350	159	145.03	13.97	109.63
John Mabry	1031	94	87.37	6.63	107.59
Dan R Johnson	2199	163	151.59	11.41	107.52
Ben Broussard	2097	148	137.99	10.01	107.25
Mark Teixeira	4436	310	293.87	16.13	105.49
Ryan N Shealy	1473	81	77.23	3.77	104.88
Mark Sweeney	1227	99	94.63	4.37	104.62
Jeff Conine	1400	91	87.01	3.99	104.58
Shea Hillenbrand	1858	141	135.02	5.98	104.43
Lyle Overbay	3738	307	294.40	12.60	104.28
Adrian Gonzalez	4031	306	294.88	11.12	103.77
Nick Johnson	4014	319	307.69	11.31	103.68
Andy A Phillips	1635	109	105.25	3.75	103.57
Kevin E Youkilis	3123	233	225.01	7.99	103.55
Nomar Garciaparra	3199	194	188.70	5.30	102.81
Howie Kendrick	1017	73	71.18	1.82	102.55
Rich Aurilia	1024	70	68.35	1.65	102.41
Chris B Shelton	2737	179	175.49	3.51	102.00
Lance Berkman	2722	198	194.72	3.28	101.68
Scott Hatteberg	3415	220	216.73	3.27	101.51
Prince G Fielder	3989	269	265.60	3.40	101.28
Kevin Millar	2478	158	156.17	1.83	101.17
Mike Lamb	1488	98	97.62	0.38	100.39
Travis Lee	2794	218	217.25	0.75	100.35
Paul Konerko	3679	215	214.36	0.64	100.30
Justin Morneau	4046	266	268.21	-2.21	99.18
Richie Sexson	4023	291	294.42	-3.42	98.84
Adam LaRoche	3633	262	265.65	-3.65	98.62
Nick T Swisher	2214	153	155.66	-2.66	98.29
Todd Helton	4025	270	279.64	-9.64	96.55
Ty Wigginton	1008	66	68.89	-2.89	95.81
Ryan F Garko	1291	76	79.74	-3.74	95.30
Carlos Delgado	3696	253	266.75	-13.75	94.85
Robb Quinlan	1151	67	70.79	-3.79	94.64
Wes Helms	1305	79	84.03	-5.03	94.02
Craig A Wilson	1819	93	99.06	-6.06	93.88
Mike Jacobs	2949	191	208.47	-17.47	91.62
Ryan J Howard	4301	275	301.23	-26.23	91.29
Conor S Jackson	3295	231	256.35	-25.35	90.11
Sean Casey	2806	168	189.24	-21.24	88.77
Jason Giambi	1467	71	87.61	-16.61	81.05

I wanted to put up tables for all the positions using outs difference so there is a complete record. Pitchers and third basemen are already up, so I'll do the rest in position order. Here are the catchers.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Out Difference	Out Ratio
Henry Blanco	1503	11	8.20	2.80	134.08
Ivan Rodriguez	3235	33	25.56	7.44	129.09
Toby Hall	2056	19	15.45	3.55	122.99
Paul Lo Duca	3062	36	29.34	6.66	122.72
Rod Barajas	2630	26	21.86	4.14	118.96
Miguel Olivo	2985	40	34.55	5.45	115.76
Mike Rivera	1048	20	17.45	2.55	114.65
Jason LaRue	1620	29	25.58	3.42	113.35
Matt A Treanor	1283	20	17.81	2.19	112.32
Chris R Snyder	1485	14	12.55	1.45	111.55
Mike Redmond	1153	8	7.28	0.72	109.82
Mike Lieberthal	1402	17	15.54	1.46	109.40
A.J. Pierzynski	3512	27	24.76	2.24	109.06
Dioner F Navarro	2084	21	19.87	1.13	105.66
Mike A Napoli	2105	17	16.10	0.90	105.57
Jason Varitek	2505	21	19.93	1.07	105.37
Doug Mirabelli	1397	13	12.49	0.51	104.09
Vance Wilson	1204	20	19.73	0.27	101.38
Brian Schneider	3176	40	39.53	0.47	101.19
Yadier B Molina	3212	30	29.68	0.32	101.09
Brad Ausmus	3292	45	44.59	0.41	100.91
Kenji Johjima	3631	36	35.77	0.23	100.65
Russell N Martin	3094	36	35.80	0.20	100.56
Bengie Molina	2542	35	34.82	0.18	100.52
Jorge Posada	3237	58	58.00	0.00	100.01
Jason Kendall	3885	45	45.24	-0.24	99.46
Gerald Laird	1828	15	15.13	-0.13	99.15
Michael Barrett	2508	33	33.50	-0.50	98.50
Ronny L Paulino	3196	36	36.77	-0.77	97.90
Yorvit Torrealba	1692	21	21.55	-0.55	97.46
Joe Mauer	3167	28	28.79	-0.79	97.25
Paul Bako	1246	15	15.44	-0.44	97.15
Victor Martinez	3611	43	44.73	-1.73	96.13
Dave Ross	1929	26	27.23	-1.23	95.48
Eliezer J Alfonzo	2116	26	27.27	-1.27	95.35
Sal Fasano	1632	18	19.13	-1.13	94.09
Javy Lopez	1000	8	8.51	-0.51	94.03
Josh Bard	1688	26	27.75	-1.75	93.69
Brian M McCann	3129	29	30.97	-1.97	93.63
Jose Molina	1773	16	17.26	-1.26	92.72
Ramon Hernandez	3399	30	32.84	-2.84	91.35
John R Buck	3042	24	26.85	-2.85	89.40
Gregg Zaun	1654	19	21.53	-2.53	88.25
Todd Greene	1048	11	12.51	-1.51	87.93
Danny Ardoin	1009	9	10.39	-1.39	86.61
Mike Matheny	1222	12	14.01	-2.01	85.66
Gary Bennett	1220	21	24.72	-3.72	84.95
Todd Pratt	1115	14	16.68	-2.68	83.95
Damian Miller	2529	23	27.76	-4.76	82.85
Josh Paul	1239	15	18.27	-3.27	82.12
Chris R Coste	1358	13	16.08	-3.08	80.83
Mike Piazza	2107	22	27.27	-5.27	80.66
Johnny Estrada	2866	15	20.73	-5.73	72.35

Maybe the Diamondbacks and Red Sox should work a deal for Manny Ramirez. Arizona's been using their draft picks to stockpile shortstops, a need of Boston. The Diamondbacks can use a replacement for Luis Gonzalez. GM Byrnes worked for Theo, so he knows how the Red Sox operate, and has a good idea of what it would actually take to land Ramirez. What do others think?

The Boston Globe reports Jon Lester's cancer is in remission:

A source with direct knowledge of Jon Lester's medical condition said yesterday that Lester's latest CT scan was clean and his cancer seems to be in remission, so the 22-year-old lefthander expects to be in spring training with the Red Sox in 2007.

Wonderful news.

Brian Cashman is more interested in keeping his young talent than trading it:

Of course, Jeffrey Loria, the Marlins' owner, never will completely shut the door on potential Willis suitors. "Not if someone wants to really overwhelm us," is what he says, which, translated, means, "Who's to say if someone is willing to do something really stupid like trading three can't-miss prospects?" Not the Yankees or the Mets.

What's interesting from the Yankees' standpoint is that, for the first time in recent memory, they are actually in a position to put together that sort of package as a result of Brian Cashman's determined restocking of the once-barren farm system with blue-chip prospects such as pitchers Philip Hughes, Humberto Sanchez, Tyler Clippard, Jeff Karstens, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Dellin Betances and Kevin Whelan and outfielders Jose Tabata and Brett Gardner.

The George Steinbrenner of yesteryear would be telling Cashman to call Loria and make precisely that sort of overwhelming offer for Willis. But as Cashman reiterated yesterday, the Yankees are doing business in a different way now.

"We're trying to build from within to the point where we have a lot of choices so we're not forced to go into the free agent market which is typically unproductive," he said.

The scary thing for the rest of the AL is that both the Yankees and Red Sox are pursuing this tactic. The Twins and Athletics showed how you can stay in contention developing young talent. Add a ton of money to that, and you have a chance to build super teams.

Before Cashman made his deal to gain more control of the Yankees, his merits as a GM were hotly debated. I'd say so far he's used his power wisely.

Dallas Green wants Pat Burrell to change his lifestyle:

Not that this makes him a bad guy, but Burrell has a reputation for enjoying the Philadelphia nightlife.

"Probably well-earned," Green said. "I've been out with him a couple times in Florida. We have a secret [watering] hole every now and then.

"There's nothing wrong with that. There are tons of guys in the Hall of Fame that were like that.

"It's neat to have money, it's neat to have good looks, and it's neat to have broads all over you. Every place I've managed, I've talked to kids about the same thing. It's a hell of a life. But there comes a time in every player's life when he needs to get his act together."

Let's see:

• Excellent OBA? Check.


• Good slugging percentage? Check.


• Lots of money? Check.


• Good looking? Check. (I'll take Dallas' word on this.)


• Popular with women? Check.

Seems to me Burrell's lifestyle is just fine. But of course, that's Dallas Green. He doesn't publicly go after the mediocre players on the team. He doesn't blast Jimmy Rollins for not getting on base enough. He helps drive Rolen out of town, and now goes after another productive player. Why this man is still with the organization is beyond me.

Manny Ramirez trade talks won't embroil the Red Sox this winter:

Epstein, who has spent the last four winters - and a few summers - trying to deal Ramirez, made it clear that talks for the outfielder would not drag on through the winter. If a deal is not completed by the end of this week's meetings, Epstein will not actively shop Ramirez.

'If we get past Wednesday, it's not going to take up our time,' Epstein told Boston writers. 'We would strictly be listeners. By Wednesday at midnight, we'll have flushed out the major trade market, and we're moving on.'

It's impressive that through all the years to trying to trade Manny, the Red Sox never dealt him simply to get rid of the player. He helps the team win and to move him they want players that will help them win in his place. And I guess the fact that they try to move Manny keeps a certain amount of peace between Ramirez and management. It almost makes me think the Red Sox don't really want to trade Manny, since he could be gone in a minute if they simply lessened their demands.

FoxSports is reporting that the San Diego Padres are about to sign Greg Maddux.

The Padres are closing in on a major off-season coup, nearing an agreement with free-agent right-hander Greg Maddux, FOXSports.com has learned.

The deal, which would be a significant blow to the Dodgers, the Padres' NL West rival, will be for either one or two years, or possibly one year with a club option.

I'm not sure it's that big a coup. Maddux isn't the pitcher he used to be. But the Padres are a good fit, since they have such a good bullpen. Maddux can give the Padres six decent innings in a pitcher's park, and the pen can take over. We'll see if this deal takes place.

John Perricone lists how he'd like to see the Giants develop the team.

The Giants would be better off just running the Triple AAA team out there with these pitchers, and see what happens. Again, young players at least have upside. Barring the use of illegal PED's, old players have little more than the hope that they neither decline nor fall to injury.

I agree.

Brian Sabean makes it clear the Giants want to sign Barry Bonds:

"I don't know where the story line came from that we didn't want him back," Giants general manager Brian Sabean said Monday at the winter meetings. "We've had a long-standing conversation and offer out there that we've adjusted a number of times. Because we were pursuing other players didn't mean we weren't interested in Barry. We're trying to put the best team on the field and sign other people also. I guess it was misconstrued the other way."

I guess so. Maybe Brian shouldn't have taken so long to clear up the matter. Or maybe after all the other good hitters were signed, the Giants decided they needed Barry.

The last position to examine is pitchers. They play less than other position players, so I'm looking at hurlers on the field for 500 balls in play.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 500 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.

Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Out Difference	Out Ratio
Greg Maddux	688	53	32.45	20.55	163.31
Jae Seo	528	20	14.26	5.74	140.21
Johan Santana	603	35	25.25	9.75	138.60
Justin B Verlander	564	18	13.38	4.62	134.55
Cory Lidle	516	35	28.44	6.56	123.06
Tom Glavine	621	43	35.04	7.96	122.73
Jake Peavy	542	28	22.88	5.12	122.38
Bronson Arroyo	707	35	28.61	6.39	122.32
Kevin Millwood	670	31	25.60	5.40	121.08
John Lackey	635	28	23.44	4.56	119.47
Jon Garland	715	36	30.24	5.76	119.07
Miguel Batista	692	32	27.04	4.96	118.35
Jeff Suppan	634	24	20.29	3.71	118.29
Kenny Rogers	656	40	33.82	6.18	118.26
Jake Westbrook	720	45	38.28	6.72	117.55
Steve Trachsel	552	28	23.93	4.07	117.00
Mark Redman	573	26	22.25	3.75	116.88
Jeff W Francis	626	34	29.19	4.81	116.48
Matt Morris	687	28	24.05	3.95	116.42
Erik Bedard	583	25	21.87	3.13	114.33
John Smoltz	662	37	33.02	3.98	112.07
Dan Haren	668	27	24.14	2.86	111.86
Jamie Moyer	696	32	28.69	3.31	111.52
Brandon Webb	701	44	39.52	4.48	111.35
Josh Beckett	590	26	23.37	2.63	111.26
Felix A Hernandez	551	26	23.43	2.57	110.99
Javier Vazquez	594	30	27.25	2.75	110.08
Ted Lilly	524	24	21.81	2.19	110.03
Kris Benson	595	26	23.67	2.33	109.85
Josh Fogg	581	28	25.67	2.33	109.08
Paul G Maholm	559	37	34.11	2.89	108.47
Mark Buehrle	688	27	25.13	1.87	107.43
Jason Schmidt	607	18	16.86	1.14	106.79
Zach Duke	726	45	42.71	2.29	105.37
Dontrelle Willis	690	43	40.83	2.17	105.31
Carlos Zambrano	563	36	34.22	1.78	105.20
Noah Lowry	521	22	21.13	0.87	104.11
Livan Hernandez	720	35	33.68	1.32	103.92
Tony Armas Jr.	500	21	20.26	0.74	103.66
Claudio Vargas	538	18	17.48	0.52	102.98
Randy Johnson	590	26	25.40	0.60	102.38
Derek Lowe	716	48	47.07	0.93	101.98
Jason Jennings	655	27	26.56	0.44	101.65
Jose Contreras	614	23	22.72	0.28	101.25
Jon Lieber	557	22	21.90	0.10	100.46
Vicente Padilla	608	24	23.92	0.08	100.35
Clay A Hensley	571	27	26.96	0.04	100.16
Paul Byrd	647	17	17.00	-0.00	99.97
Curt Schilling	592	24	24.13	-0.13	99.45
Roy Halladay	686	34	34.22	-0.22	99.34
Brett Myers	549	24	24.71	-0.71	97.12
Chien-Ming Wang	758	44	45.46	-1.46	96.80
Ian D Snell	539	27	27.97	-0.97	96.52
Rodrigo Lopez	616	17	17.62	-0.62	96.49
Chris Carpenter	638	28	29.24	-1.24	95.75
Jamey Wright	507	21	22.00	-1.00	95.47
Brad Radke	549	22	23.15	-1.15	95.03
Aaron Cook	744	50	52.72	-2.72	94.84
Mike Mussina	570	22	23.24	-1.24	94.68
Jarrod Washburn	619	22	23.30	-1.30	94.44
Jason Marquis	648	32	34.47	-2.47	92.84
Gil Meche	539	19	20.53	-1.53	92.56
Aaron Harang	684	37	40.43	-3.43	91.51
Cliff Lee	658	16	17.57	-1.57	91.06
Andy Pettitte	652	28	31.06	-3.06	90.15
Kelvim Escobar	570	19	21.26	-2.26	89.37
Chris Capuano	677	28	31.75	-3.75	88.19
Matt Cain	528	18	20.59	-2.59	87.41
David T Bush	621	27	30.93	-3.93	87.31
Barry Zito	655	18	20.73	-2.73	86.84
Ramon Ortiz	654	21	24.24	-3.24	86.65
Freddy Garcia	695	21	24.27	-3.27	86.53
Mark Hendrickson	537	22	25.79	-3.79	85.30
Esteban Loaiza	520	16	18.77	-2.77	85.25
Carlos Silva	664	22	25.84	-3.84	85.13
Jeremy Bonderman	615	18	21.26	-3.26	84.66
Brad Penny	583	19	22.54	-3.54	84.28
Roy Oswalt	668	29	34.57	-5.57	83.90
Doug Davis	619	24	28.70	-4.70	83.61
Nate Robertson	639	21	25.44	-4.44	82.53
Tim Hudson	705	30	36.92	-6.92	81.25
Ervin R Santana	603	14	17.33	-3.33	80.80
Joel Pineiro	569	18	22.63	-4.63	79.54
C.C. Sabathia	562	18	23.50	-5.50	76.58
Jeff Weaver	572	16	21.82	-5.82	73.34
Joe M Blanton	668	13	18.49	-5.49	70.31

Maddux is head and shoulders above everyone else. To break this down further, he's +14 outs on ground balls, +4 outs on line drives, and +2 outs on fly balls (assume they're pop ups). On line drives, Greg was expected to make 1.74 outs, and he actually made 6. That's four single he likely saved. Based on this, he definitely deserved the gold glove.

The St. Louis Cardinals made Chris Carpenter a much richer man today.

Chris Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals agreed Monday to a five-year contract that guarantees the 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner about $65 million.

He'll finish his current contract, making $16 million over the next two seasons. After that, he'll bring in about $16 million a year for three years, with a club option for a fourth season. That's sounds like a very good deal for the Cardinals. Over the last three seasons, he's third in the majors in ERA and second in winning percentage among pitchers with 300 IP.

There's an investigation into throwing games in the Dominican Republic:

The announcement came four days after pitcher Pascual Coco and outfielder Enmanuel Sena were dismissed by Santo Domingo's Escogido Lions amid allegations the last-place team was intentionally losing games.

I always thought you wanted first place teams to throw games, so you collect on the long odds.

Scott Miller details the shambles of the Texas Rangers roster:

In Chicago, they're signing every free agent who happens to answer his telephone -- Alfonso Soriano! Aramis Ramirez! Kerry Wood! Manager Lou Piniella! Henry Blanco! Mark DeRosa! GM Jim Hendry is on the phone so often, the prediction here is, the Cubs accidentally will invite a couple of telemarketers and a pizza guy to spring camp, too.

In Texas, meanwhile, the Rangers right now would get out-shopped by Charlie Brown for a Christmas tree. No team will arrive at the winter meetings in Orlando next week more beleaguered than Texas.

DeRosa signed with the Cubs (three years, $13 million), leaving a hole at third base. Carlos Lee signed with Houston (six years, $100 million), leaving a void in the middle of the lineup. Gary Matthews signed with the Angels (five years, $50 million), leaving a gap in center field and atop the lineup. Adam Eaton agreed to terms with Philadelphia (three years, $24 million) and Kip Wells with St. Louis (one year, $4 million), leaving the Rangers, as usual, short on the mound.

As general manager Jon Daniels notes (groans?), close to 20 percent of the free agents who have changed teams so far this winter started with the Rangers. That's not a good thing. Texas' Alumni Club is growing more rapidly than Notre Dame's vaunted Subway Alums, and the Rangers aren't even BCS-eligible.

I'm not sure DeRosa leaves that big a hole at third base. Hank Blalock is still there. True, he's put up two straight poor seasons, but at least the Rangers have someone at the position.

And all this roster disorder might be good for Texas in the long run. Maybe they turn inward and start developing some talent. It's not such a terrible idea to give some minor leaguers major league playing time to see what happens. The might just uncover a gem without spending a lot of money.

MetsBlog.com likes this trade:

According to the Boston Herald, the White Sox would like to swap 3B Joe Crede and either RHP Mark Buehrle or RHP Freddy Garcia for Rodriguez.

Here's why:

...ok, well, first of all, the yankees should pull the trigger on that deal, assuming it is available to them...it's custom made to fit their exact needs...and crede is cut from the Derek Jeter mold of baseball players, which is the exact type of talent the yankees should be looking to build from...

Well, if Jeter had a .308 OBA. Crede is not someone you build around. He's a good defensive third baseman with some power, who's on the wrong side of 27. He's also coming off his only good offensive season. He'd be going to a ballpark that hurts his power, so he's worth less to the Yankees than he is to the White Sox. And as much as I like the idea of the Yankees getting a front line left-handed pitcher, I'd rather see them get one whose strikeouts didn't fall off a cliff last year.

Jason Isringhausen reports he's making good progress recovering from his hip surgery. He says he'll be ready to pitch opening day:

Noting Isringhausen's progress, general manager Walt Jocketty said Friday that the club could consider transferring Adam Wainwright to the rotation if Isringhausen maintains his current pace.

Note, however, that Isringhausen has yet to throw a pitch.

Jeff at Lookout Landing discusses the good and the bad about Jose Guillen becoming a Mariner. There's really not much good about this deal. Remember, Guillen had two good season in his career. I agree with this:

Anyway, given that right field can only accomodate one player at a time, Guillen being there means that Chris Snelling isn't. Guillen's a good defensive outfielder (with an awesome arm if it's healthy) and he brings a right-handed bat to the table, but Snelling's the most patient hitter on the team, and reducing his role costs the team runs. You can't really slide him to DH either, not as long as Broussard's hanging around, so something has to give, and I don't want it to be Snelling's playing time.

It's not a long contract or a very expensive one, however, so there's a lot of upside here for the Mariners. Guillen will be playing for a huge contract next season.

In their album, Great White North, the McKenzie brothers apply the formula for converting from centigrade to Farenheit to all sorts of metric conversions (double it and add 30). For example, there are 42 metric beers in a six pack. According to Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post, general managers are doing something similar in pricing free agents:

The theorem behind the Times Two principle is simple: Take whatever value you would have assigned to a chosen free agent before this winter's madness took hold, then double it. The resulting figure, with few exceptions, will equal, or at least approximate, the total value of said free agent's actual contract.

For example, several months ago, most observers seemed to believe left fielder Alfonso Soriano -- the erstwhile Washington National whose unquestioned talent as a power hitter and base stealer is mitigated by a propensity to strike out and a pedestrian career on-base percentage of .325 -- to be worth perhaps $70 million on the free agent market. Double that figure, and poof! Soriano, who will be 31 next month, received just shy of $140 million ($136 million, to be exact) from the Chicago Cubs.

Carlos Lee, another outfielder whose flaws are no less obvious than Soriano's, might have been viewed as a $50 million player. Poof! He got $100 million from the Houston Astros. And so on and so forth.

Some teams, however, are not getting involved:

'Some of these signings don't appear too logical in some cases,' Pittsburgh Pirates GM Dave Littlefield said. 'But it takes a lot of discipline to sit back and not jump in.'

That is the beauty of the Times Two theory, as it relates to small-budget teams in a big-budget marketplace: Zero times two is still zero.

A reader sends in this story on Jon Lester. There's not much on his condition, but a lot on how he's receiving tons of support from his fans. He sounds like he's in good spirits as he faces his fifth round of chemotherapy, however.

While some KC Royals fans are leaving the fold, one is getting on the bandwagon real early.

The more I thought about my friend's luck, the more I wondered what it would be like to be a new fan for a completely different team. I, like most fans, had given myself to one team earlier in life. When I was a kid I learned the players' and managers' names, memorized the schedule and during the summer counted down the hours each day to the first pitch.

But that was a long time ago, and I started wondering what it would be like to do that again, to pledge my allegiance to a new team no matter how the season turned out.

As the 2006 season closed and the Braves missed the playoffs, I decided to pick my new team. I set out some guidelines and began narrowing my options.

The Royals met all his criteria, and Joe Schulman will be blogging about what it's like to be an out of town fan at A Royals Fan in Atlanta.

Bill Reiter talks with Buddy Bell about his recovery from throat cancer surgery:

Bell told the doctor he wanted the feeding tube removed. Today. Now. He didn't want his grandkids to see him that way, didn't want them to worry. The doctor told Buddy that patients kept feeding tubes in for weeks, sometimes longer.

The next day, a deal was struck. Get food down your throat, his doctor said, and the tube can come out.

"Eating just didn't work," Bell said. It was painful beyond description. It was like forcing sandpaper over a wound. "So I had to just force it down."

For weeks, Bell ate his way back to normalcy, chewing through the pain along with the pudding and grits that became his diet. But he hadn't willed himself all the way back. He wanted cheeseburgers, too.

"He got a cheeseburger, and it hurt to eat," said Bell's wife, Gloria, shaking her head. "I said, 'Then don't eat it.' "

She paused, still incredulous, and looked over at Buddy as they sat in leather chairs in their den on a crisp weekday morning.

"He said, 'No, I want man food.' "

He's doing well, and will be attending the winter meeting this week. That's good news, and I hope his recovery continues.

John Paul Morosi notes the Tigers strong hand in future trades, but he's not asking for enough:

The Tigers, meanwhile, could not imagine a better marketplace. They like their pitching. Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander are locks for the 2007 rotation. Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson will likely be retained, rather than traded. And, as it stands now, Maroth is the fifth starter.

"If he's healthy, if he's ready to go, he's our fifth starter," said Dave Dombrowski, the club president and GM. "He's an established big-league pitcher.

"He had the bone-chip surgery, and it went well. If he's ready to go, he'll be one of our five starters."

Make no mistake, though: Dombrowski will have plenty of chances to trade him before then.

...

The Texas Rangers, for example, need three starters. The longer their search continues, the more apt they'll be to deal away one of their left-handed setup men, either Ron Mahay or C.J. Wilson. They would rather move Wilson into the rotation than trade him.

Talentwise, Mahay for Maroth makes some sense. The age difference, however, would make this a very short term deal for the Tigers. Given the lack of pitching on the Rangers, I'm guessing Dombrowski could get more than a 36-year-old reliever.

The Cincinnati Reds will file a grievance over the trade of Gary Majewski.

Dan Rosenheck looks for the best fit for Barry Bonds and decides the Twins would benefit the most from the slugger's presence:

Any team looking to sign him should be on the verge of a postseason appearance; that eliminates his most recent employer. Even though Bonds is loved in San Francisco and despised most everywhere else, the Giants are unlikely to contend next year.

Bonds can also offer potential suitors an added source of revenue: his chase for the home run record. He is on track to surpass Hank Aaron's career total of 755 late next season. When Bonds broke Mark McGwire's single-season home run record of 70 in 2001, attendance increased by about 5,000 a game during the last 40 games of the year, and once he reached 69, every game sold out.

A team that comes close to selling out most of its games would be unable to accommodate the extra fans who would pay to see Bonds break the record. But one with a big stadium and mediocre attendance could increase its revenue by more than $5 million.

Add it all up, and one team trumps the rest: the Minnesota Twins.

They had the worst-performing left fielders in the majors last year. They play in a tightly contested division, vying against the 2006 pennant-winning Detroit Tigers and the 2005 world champion White Sox, as well as the up-and-coming Cleveland Indians. And, crucially, they averaged 24,000 empty seats a game in August and September, meaning they could benefit more from an increase in attendance for Bonds's record chase than any other serious contender.

Full disclousure, Dan consulted me (and others) about Bonds' fielding. The biggest drawback I see in playing for the Twins is the artificial surface. Those tend to be bad on his knees. Otherwise, it's a good idea.

Rays of Light notes the new faces on the Devil Rays, minor league signees invited to spring training. One of them is Hee-Seop Choi and the author is upset the Rays are spending money on him:

Now with every move I find myself crunching the dollar figures as they pertain to the product. Back in the day, simply knowing that the Devil Rays were apparently acquiring Hee-Seop Choi would disappoint me plenty just because he is not a good baseball player. I know this statistically and in that he does not excite me in any way and I will not like it when he is on the field. I liked it when it was this simple.

But now I can't help weighing his statistics against the Rays' sickeningly-famous, limited payroll. I try to rationalize the $1.95 million the organization is accused of paying for him. But this one for me, even as one of the thousands of self-appointed team accountants, is a stumper. Why is Choi, who made $725,000 in 2006 as a backup first baseman, who got hurt and was sent down to AAA for the season where he hit .207, in line for such a raise? Stumped.

On the bright side, if this rumor does hold, I think that admitting I am stumped at this point may be the first step in the liberation from my self-inflicted immersion in the speculative and masochistic world of Devil Ray finance.

While I have to agree that the amount of money paid to Choi is way too high given his history, I was surprised by Hee-Seop being described as "not a good baseball player." If you look at his career, he basically had 95 good games for the Marlins in 2004. At that point, he was 25 and entering his peak years. But in the middle of that fine season the Dodgers acquired him and he did not perform well for them in 1 1/2 seasons. My feeling is that Los Angeles didn't give him a chance, but Choi also did not make the most of his opportunities, either.

He'll be 28 going into the 2007 season, so he's passed the point where he'll have a great career. But, if he can play every day and draw 80 walks, post a .370 OBA, he improves the Rays. He's worth the chance. But if he fails to make an impact again, I'll have to agree with Jon Wolfson that Choi is not a good player.

It seems the Giants are shaping up to be much the same team as last year:

Ray Durham and Pedro Feliz are coming back to the Giants next season, and the club hopes to add Barry Bonds to that list soon.

Durham agreed to a two-year, $14.5 million contract to return at second base; Feliz will be back at third base after agreeing to a one-year contract believed to be worth $5 million to $6 million, pending a physical, MediaNews has learned.

The Giants lineup is taking shape and will become even clearer today, when the club is expected to announce the signings of infielder Rich Aurilia (two years, about $7 million) and center fielder/leadoff man Dave Roberts (three years, about $17 million).

What's interesting to me is that in an off-season in which players salaries are going way up, that Durham and Feliz took modest raises to return. Either they just love playing in San Francisco, or the market for them is not that strong. If it's the latter, the other teams don't see them as very good players. That's not good news for the Giants. It's sad that San Francisco had a chance here to really remake the team, and they're just recycling veterans.

On the Mike Matheny front:

Catcher Mike Matheny is scheduled to undergo another battery of cognitive tests at the University of Pittsburgh on Wednesday to gauge his recovery from post-concussion syndrome. Sabean acknowledged he was "not as optimistic" about Matheny contributing next season.

Let's hope he does well.

Midnight was the deadline to offer free agents arbitration, and in the AL at least not too many players got the offer. With the rule changes due the the CBA, this isn't as big a deal as in the past. A larger number of free agents won't be compensated, so their is no reason to offer those players arbitration anymore. And since all 30 clubs can negotiate without restrictions, there's no need to offer arbitration so you can keep talking.

So Barry Bonds isn't offered arbitration, since the Giants think he would accept and they'd be stuck with a bigger salary than they'd like to pay. Zito is offered arbitration since Oakland feels there is a low probability their Barry would accept, and Oakland wants the draft pick. Players have until Dec. 7 to accept the offer.

I would guess that most teams only offer arbitration if they think the player has a low risk of accepting. With the free agent market as inflated as it is, there's a good chance anyone going through the process will get a substantial sum of money.

Ray Durham stays with the Giants:

The San Francisco Giants re-signed Ray Durham to a two-year contract Friday that will pay the second baseman between $14 million and $15 million.

The 35-year-old Durham, a switch-hitter and two-time All-Star, is coming off his best season in years. He batted .293 with career highs of 26 home runs and 93 RBI for the Giants with a .538 slugging percentage in 498 at-bats. He signed a three-year deal with the club before the 2003 season but has dealt with several leg injuries since his arrival.

"We are fortunate to re-sign Ray Durham and keep him in a Giants uniform," general manager Brian Sabean said in a statement. "His switch-hitting abilities and increased power numbers serve as a needed commodity for our evolving team. He has impressed us with his ability to transform his game from a top-of-the-order run scorer to a middle-of-the-lineup run producer."

So much for going young with Kevin Frandsen. I like Durham. He gets on base, has a little pop, and he's versitile. But does anyone really expect him to repeat his power numbers? Of course, if the Giants don't re-sign Bonds, they could play Frandsen at second and Durham in left.

Correction: When I first read the article, I thought they were paying Durham $14 million a year. I removed the line that referred to that.

MetsBlog.com relays a report that Tom Glavine is staying in New York. Glavine needs 10 wins to reach 300. About 10 years ago the common wisdom was there would be no more 300 game winners. I thought Clemens and Maddux had a good shot at it, but Glavine's held up very well over the years and he'll likely reach the plateau late in 2007.

Now this is what I call a rumor!

Bud Selig announced he's retiring at the end of his current contract. Bud has a way of hanging around, although this is more definitive than last time:

And it looks like I'll be resetting my countdown clock:

Q: Are you considering retirement after the next CBA?

A: My response to a question was are you still having fun and I said I'm not sure I'd use "fun" to describe what I'm doing. But it's very challenging. I've done this all my adult life and my contact's up at the end of 2006, at which time I'll be 71 years old. I've said to a lot of people, "I promise you now we'll talk about it in the next year." And I'm open to staying but we'll see what happens. So I have two and a half years - longer than that, maybe.

Baseball Think Factory's news blog points to a table showing compensation for free agents. The Angels are just giving away draft choices!

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