Jake Peavy doesn't need much help from the rest of the Padres tonight. He's pitched five shutout innings so far tonight, and driven in both the San Diego runs with a sacrifice fly and a single. He's continuing his hot hitting from 2007 in which he hit .233 with five extra-base hits.

Nate McLouth just extended a 5-4 Pirates lead over the Braves to an 8-4 lead with a three run home run in the top of the eighth. With the score tied at four, Nady led off the inning with a home off Acosta. He put two more on before Nate delivered the big insurance blow. Acosta only allowed two home runs in the 23 2/3 inning he pitched in 2007.

Update: The Pirates pitchers can't find the plate in the ninth inning. Marte walked two while recording an out, the Capps comes in and walks two to bring the tying run to the plate. The Pirates lead 9-5 and need two outs to secure the victory.

Update: Chipper singles in two bringing up Mark Teixeira.

Update: Teixeira flys out to shallow center. It's up to McCann.

Update: OMG! McCann hits a high fly ball to shallow left center, and neither Bay nor McLouth tries to catch it. I assume each thought the other was going to take it. Chipper Jones is running all the way from first and scores the tying run. The teams are going to the tenth as the Braves score five in the bottom of the ninth. I guess not much has changed in Pittsburgh.

Update: Nady homers in the twelvth inning to put the Pirates up 12-9. It's his second home run of the game. I wonder if the Pirates can hold the lead this time.

Update: It's happening again. Francoeur hit a solo home run. Kotsay doubled. Diaz singled in Kotsay. The Braves have a man on first with two out, trailing by one run.

Update: Corky Miller flies out the center to end the game and the Pirates get what can only be called one of the ugliest wins I've ever seen. Atlanta is now 0-2 in one run games. Twice they rallied late in the game to tie, only to lose. That's a tough way to start the season.

With the bases loaded and two out in the bottom of the 8th, Adam Everett just missed a grand slam home run by a few feet as the ball goes into the stands just a few feet from the foul pole. He flies out to end the inning as O'Day pitches into and out of trouble. The Angels are coming up in the top of the ninth trailing 3-2.

Update: Nathan gives up an infield hit, but that's it as he gets the save and the Angels go down 3-2. Livan Hernandez used his defense tonight, striking out one and walking none. He allowed seven hits, five of them singles, as he gave the Twins seven solid innings. It's good to see he's bought into the no walk philosophy of the team.

Kazuo Fukumori is making his major league debut in the bottom of the seventh inning vs. the Mariners. He's walked his two Japanese counterparts, Ichiro and Johjima, but he's also thrown two wild pitches as Laird seemed fooled a couple of times. Lopez just doubled in two runs to make the score 5-1 Seattle. Not the best debut for the Rangers reliever. Fukumori threw 21 pitches, only 9 for strikes.

With men on first and third, one out and the score tied at one, Adrian Beltre grounded to Blalock at third. Hank tried to go around the horn, but Beltre hustled down the line and beat the relay throw by Kinsler. That hustle made drives in a run and gives the Mariners a 2-1 lead.

Just like in Cleveland last year, the Mariners are seeing snow during their opener. However, with a roof, they solid precipitation isn't bothering them. Bedard has allowed just one run through five innings on a first inning homer by Michael Young, but the Rangers worked the counts as Erik is already over 100 pitches. Millwood, on the other hand, is being very efficient as he's thrown 57 pitches through four innings and takes a shutout into the bottom of the fifth. He's struck out three and walked one.

The Rockies and Cardinals ended up in a rain out. None of the walks, home runs or RBI count, which has to make Jeff Francis happy but leaves Albert Pujols still 18 home runs from 300.

Joe Torre's Dodgers career gets off to a good start as his squad shuts out the hapless Giants 5-0. San Francisco managed five hits and three walks in the game, but none of the hits were for extra bases. Three of those base runners were removed, however, with two caught stealings and a double play.

Zito disappointed again, giving up eight hits during his five innings. He only struck out one, and the Dodgers were 8 for 21 on balls in play against Barry, .381. I'm afraid this game is just an example of things to come for the Giants.

On a nostalgic note, Scott Proctor got in the game for the Dodgers, threw six pitches, five of them for balls, walking one and recording one out. That will take take Yankees fans down memory lane.

Johan Santana and the Mets offense appear to be in sync. The Mets scored six runs for Johan, and he allowed just two over seven innings. Both runs came on the first he allowed, a home run to Josh Willingham. He gave up three hits while walking two and striking out eight. That's pretty much what the Mets expect from their multi-million dollar investment. The Mets lead 6-2 in the bottom of the eighth.

The Washington Nationals spank the Phillies 11-6 to go 2-0 on the season. Washington picked up twelve hits, six of them doubles. Nick Johnson knocked out two more, giving him three in two games. Like John Olerud, Johnson's power is more of the two base than four base variety.

Kerry Wood comes in to try to preserve a 0-0 tie in the top of the ninth. He hits weeks with his first pitch, then after a sacrifice by Gwynn, he intentionally walks Fielder. Braun then singles in the first run of the game, and with two out Hart triples in two more. Now the new Brewers closer Eric Gagne gets a chance for a save.

Update: Wow. I eat dinner, come back to the game and it's tied at three. Fukudome certainly did Gagne as he hits a three run homer off the closer to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth. The Brewers just picked up a run in the top of the tenth to take the lead 4-3.

Update: Riske comes on and retires the Cubs in the 10th to earn the save. I guess Riske isn't as risky as Gagne!

The Diamondbacks start the defense of their NL West crown with a 4-2 victory over the Reds. Both Webb and Harang allowed just three hits over six innings. Aaron gave up two more home runs while Brandon gave up two more walks. Both K'd six. But an unearned bought Harang a loss instead of leaving with a 2-2 tie.

The Diamondbacks pen pitched three perfect innings, striking out four along the way.

The Tampa Bay Rays spoiled the Orioles opening day with a 6-2 victory. They banged out ten hits, doing a good job of putting the ball in play. They only struck out three times in the game after whiffing the most in the AL by 100 last year. We'll see if this keeps up over the season.

Carlos Zambrano gave up a double to Bill Hall, but picked him off second. However, Zambrano just injured his right pointer finger and had to leave the game.

Update: He injured the finger on the pickoff throw. There's still no score, as Marmol strikes out Hart on one pitch (the count was 2-2). The teams are going to the bottom of the seventh.

Victor Martinez left the Indians game with a hamstring injury. He's a big part of this Cleveland offense.

Johan Santana retires the first nine Marlins he faces. He's just thrown 33 pitches while striking out two.

Albert Pujols makes up for not contributing in the first inning by hitting a solo home run in the second. He needs 17 more to reach 300, eight years into his major leauge career.

Ben Sheets and Carlos Zambrano are matching one-hitters through five innings. Sheets walked two and struck out seven. Zambrano struck out four with one walk. Fukudome doubled in his first at bat for the Cubs.

Lastings Milledge hits his first home run for the Nationals, a two-run shot that extends the Nationals lead over the Phillies to 6-2. Utley leads off the bottom of the inning with a solo shot to cut the lead to 6-3.

Soria comes in earns the save, although he allowed a double, but Leyland gives away an out with a sacrifice by Inge. Renteria strikes out, however, leaving Polanco to ground out to end the game. It's a nice way for Trey Hillman to start his MLB managerial career.

Johan Santana takes the mound in the bottom of the first for the Mets. New York failed to score in the top of the inning. He gets ahead of Hanley Ramirez 1-2. Ramirez looked fooled on his first two swings.

Update: Johan puts an off-speed pitch on the inside corner and Hanley strikes out looking. He walks back to the dugout shaking his head. Uggla flies to right for the second out.

Update: Jacobs pops out to third to end the first. Santana throws eight pitches in the first, six for strikes.

With a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the first, Jeff Francis walks three of the first four Cardinals he faces. The only out came off the bat of Albert Pujols. He's facing Ankiel with the bases loaded.

Update: Ankiel doubles down the first base line to drive in two. He's now 2 for 5 in his career with the bases loaded with a homer and a double.

Dave Roberts starts the Giants season right with a single, but then wastes the opportunity by getting thrown out stealing. The Giants can't afford to give away outs this season.

With a runner on second, Buck singles to Inge in center who guns down the Teahen at the plate, preserving the 4-4 tie. The strong arm of the third baseman works well in the outfield.

Update: Tony Pena just gets the bat on the ball and dumps a single into centerfield, and with two out John Buck scores from second. The Royals take a 5-4 lead.

The Royals and Tigers go to the eleventh tied at four. That's two opening day games going extra frames, and we almost had another last night.

With a 1-0 lead in the third, Young and Byrnes hit solo home runs for the Diamondbacks. Young hit 21 from the leadoff slot last season, sixth in the majors.

Carlos Guillen leads off the eighth for the Tigers with a home run, tying the game at four. He now has three quarters of the cycle, needing the triple.

The Indians pick up three singles and a run off Buehrle in the second to bring Franklin Gutierrez to the plate. The twenty-five year old delivers his first home run of the season to put Cleveland on top 4-2. Twenty eight of his seventy two hits went for extra bases last year, giving him a nice .206 isolated power.

Sizemore follows with a solo shot, and the Indians are just bombing Buehrle in the second. Buehrle cuts his home runs allowed from 36 to 22 last year, but he's off to a bad start today.

Mark Teahen hit a triple in the eighth inning. That's the 20th of his career. He plays in a good park for triples in Kansas City, and Detroit is another fine park for three-baggers. He's not Granderson, but seven or eight triples a season is a pretty good total.

Kevin Millar doubles in two runs against James Shields to put the Orioles up 2-0 in the first inning of their home opener. Millar hit 26 doubles in each of the last two seasons, and 28 the year before. At least he's consistent.

Jimmy Rollins doubles to lead off the first for the Phillies. Victorino his a sacrifice bunt to move him to third, and Utley hits a sacrifice fly to bring him home for a 1-0 lead over Washington. I hope Rollins appreciates the sacrifices his teammates make for him!

Aaron Harang just threw the first pitch in the DBacks-Reds game. They've also started play in Cleveland and Baltimore.

Update: Jim Thome greets Sabathia with a two-run homer. Cabrera drew a one-out walk to set up the blast.

The game in underway at Wrigley, but it's tough to see the batter from the centerfield camera due to the fog.

The wind is blowing in at Comerica, but Miguel Cabrera hits a line drive below the jet that clears the fence in left. The solo shot gives the Tigers a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the fifth.

Update: Gordon hits a two-run homer off Verlander in the top of the sixth to cut the lead to 3-2.

Update: Buck and Teahen single to start the seventh to put runners at first and third for the Royals, and that's all for Verlander. He struck out six and walked just one through 6+ innings. Grilli will try to put out the fire, which must be tough for a guy named after a cooking appliance. :-)

Update: Buck picks up the third single of the inning, tying the game at three.

Update: Grudzielanek reaches for the fourth time in the game, a single that drives in the go-ahead run. Verlander went from an excellent outing to a 4-3 deficit in two innings. We'll see if the Tigers offense can bail him out of the loss.

Opening Day at Yankee Stadium will take place tomorrow, as rain made it impossible to play today.

Gil Meche has been flirting with trouble the whole game, but he just walked Renteria to load the bases with one out in the fourth. The big guns, starting with Polanco, are coming up for the Tigers.

Update: Polanco hits a high, hard line drive right at Jose Guillen in shallow right. I-Rod didn't even think about trying to score on the play. Two out.

Update: Meche walks Sheffield to drive in the Tigers second run. Ordonez gets a chance for his third hit of the day.

Update: Magglio hits the ball hard, but it does as a high fly out to left field. Meche has five strikeouts to go with his four walks through four innings.

The Diamondbacks-Reds game in Cincinnati is in a delay. They hope to start the game a little after 2:30 PM EDT.

Update: The Brewers and Cubs is also delayed.

Derek Jeter recorded Bob Shepard last season:

"One of the things I had him do was record him introducing me," Jeter said a few minutes ago, "so I'll always come to the plate with Bob Sheppard."

Carlos Guillen picks up his second hit of the game, but Jose Guillen guns out Magglio Ordonez trying to score after a double. Both Tigers stars from last year each have a double and a single. It's still 1-0 Tigers in the top of the fourth.

Ozzie Guillen wants to play a different team on opening day:

"I'm kind of sick and tired of seeing C.C. on Opening Day," said Guillen, as his team went through a Sunday workout at Progressive Field. "Ev ery time before the season is over, we know who we're going to face the first day next year. Give me an other ballclub so we can see somebody else. Seeing C.C. on the mound every year on the first day is not an easy pitcher to see."

The Indians are 1-1 in Sabathia's two Opening Day starts against Chicago. This is the fourth year in a row and the 27th time overall the two teams have opened the season against each other.

Edgar Renteria pays early dividends as he drives in Carlos Guillen from second with a two out single. Guillen doubled leading off the inning. Detroit leads 1-0 after two.

Update: DeJesus is out of the with what looks like an ankle injury. Verlander retires the side in order in the third, striking out two. He hasn't allowed a hit, and the only base runner reached on a throwing error by Cabrera.

Tom Elia starts a new blog on the Cubs, 1908 World Champions. His first post predicts a pretty good season for Chicago:

The 2008 season is upon us, and after strenuous evaluation of the empirical data, we project the Cubs' final 2008 record at 149-13.

Some may ask, Why the pessimism? Well, years of disappointment have caused this corner to curb our enthusiasm.

Joe Girardi removed the ice cream and candy from the Yankees clubhouse and replaced them with healthy treats.

Mussina jokingly said he planned to find the wayward freezer and install it in the empty locker next to his. "The candy will go on the top shelf," he said. "I can't play without some candy."

Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, being children, also were distressed.

The good new for the beat writers is that whenever we need a scoop, we can bribe the players with M&Ms.

A scoop for a scoop sounds like a good deal.

I was just talking to my good friend Jim Storer, who called to make sure Mark Hendrickson was starting for the Marlins today. After discussing how poor this rotation looked, with Hendrickson, Olsen, Miller and VandenHurk Jim called it an affirmative action program for the Swedish.

With two out in the bottom of the first, Sheffield walks and Ordonez singles to set up Miguel Cabrera for the possible three-run homer.

Update: Cabrera hits a fly ball deep to centerfield, but it stays in the park. The Royals and Tigers do not score in the first inning.

Coors extended their agreement with the Rockies for another ten years.

It's raining in the Bronx and the game there is being delayed. Miss America just sang the National Anthem in Detroit, however, so they should be getting underway soon.

BBTF posts the 60 Minutes Bill James interview.

Update: Joe Posnanski puts something into words that I couldn't. I didn't want to say this was a bad piece, because it really wasn't, but there were things in there that were inaccurate. Joe nails that:

Point is, I think 60 Minutes is a great show -- as long as you don't know much about the topic. I would guess that people who understand classical music probably had no use at all for the Gustave Dudamel piece, they probably felt like it was shallow and silly and borderline inaccurate.

I say this because, of course, I DO know Bill James. You know Bill James. And that gives us a unique look at the 60 Minutes piece on him Sunday. I will say first that I liked the piece because I thought Bill came across well, and I'm guessing it was probably well received by people who know nothing at all about baseball. But, it was certainly those other things too, shallow and silly and borderline inaccurate.

Isn't this what the blogosphere really exposed? Now, if someone in the media reports on something, there's an expert out there who knows better to set things right. So after 40 years we finally realize that if 60 Minutes is a good show if you don't know something about a topic, it's probably a bad show.

A reader complains:

FYI: it's an hour and a half till game time and the link for MLB.TV mosaic still says available March 31. Isn't that today? I can only imagine what a pain it is going to be to download if and when they finally make it available. The server will be jammed for hours as everyone with the service tries to get it running. Just another sign of how much MLB loves the fans. Gotta love it...?

As a programmer, the mantra I live by is that there is no such thing as bug-free software.

The third and real opening day takes place today as twenty six teams play for the first time and fourteen ballparks see their first games of 2008. I have the Mix Channel and the Strike Zone channel set up on DirecTV, and almost every Extra Innings channel has a corresponding HD option. This is going to be fun. DirecTV is also offering a free HD preview of the games until 4/6. You can find the channels starting in the 720s.

As for the games, the Tigers get us started as they host the Royals. Gil Meche takes on Justin Verlander. Although the signing of Meche last year raised eyebrows, Gil posted the best ERA of his career, cutting down both his walk and home run rates. Verlander equaled his fine 2006 season in ERA, but he really did pitch better in 2007. More innings, a better strikeout and home run rate indicates he's still growing positively as a pitcher. We also get to see the debut of Miguel Cabrera at Comerica Park.

The New York Yankees open the House that Ruth Built for the last time, facing division rival the Toronto Blue Jays. Chien-Ming Wang faces Roy Halladay and the worms are in full retreat. Wang leads the majors in wins since the start of the 2006 season with 39, while Halladay ranks seventh with 32. Alex Rodriguez sits just three home runs behind Ted Williams and Willie McCovey on the all-time home run list, and a 45 home run campaign ties him with Reggie Jackson for eleventh.

Two teams likely to battle for the NL Central title open at Wrigely Field as the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Chicago Cubs. Ben Sheets hopes to play a full season, his first since 2004. His health could be a key factor in the Brewers hope for a playoff appearance. He'll face the Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano. Carlos is a slow starter, however. Over his career he's allowed his highest BA, OBA and slugging percentage in the month of April.

The Mets and the Mariners each debut their prize pitching acquisitions this afternoon. Johan Santana gets an easy assignment as he faces the Marlins in Miami. Outside of Hanely Ramirez, there's not much offense on that team. His opponent, Mark Hendrickson, brings a 5.01 career ERA into the game. Johan couldn't ask for a better way to start his Mets career.

The Mariners send Erik Bedard to the mound as they host the Texas Rangers. Bedard pitched poorly this spring, only striking out 10 in 24 innings. He led the majors in strikeouts per 9 in 2007. Kevin Millwood hasn't been able to repeat his 2005 ERA championship. Since he's moved to Texas, many more balls are falling for hits.

Joe Torre makes his Dodgers debut as Los Angeles takes on their arch rivals the San Francisco Giants. While Dodgers ace Brad Penny has been worth every cent, big money Barry Zito hasn't lived up to expectations. With a poor offense behind him this year, he might be lucky to break the 10 win mark.

Finally, it what is one of many great pitching matchups, the Astros travel to San Diego to play the Padres in the only late game of the day. Roy Oswalt takes on Jake Peavy. Going into his eighth year, Roy has never posted a losing season, and since the start of the 2001 season his .675 winning percentage is among the best in the majors. Peavy was completely healthy in 2007 and showed durability and power, posting his highest numbers in both innings and strikeouts.

Enjoy!

Find odds for the World Series at Bodog Sportsbook!

I didn't realize until just now that the Atlanta-Washington game last night was a one-game series. Washington travels to Philadelphia today and the Braves host the Pirates. I guess ESPN really wanted that opening.

Roger Angell writes a properly sane comment in the New Yorker on steroids, records and why people used PEDs:

The game is about to move on, and Commissioner Selig, who voiced distress over Major League Baseball's failure to impose strong penalties against steroids long before it finally did, in 2005, cannot expect to take sensible action now against a panoply of bygone juicers. Instead, M.L.B. and the Players Association may shortly agree on a plan that would add more off-season tests to the game's existing and effective measures to detect and punish steroid use. In time, perhaps, they will move toward blood testing for HGH. If we fans need an image to connect us to the departing era, I would pass up the tarnished Clemens or the unpleasant Bonds and, looking back five years, focus, rather, on some imagined Class AAA infielder who has just been called up to a major-league team as a midseason defensive replacement. He doesn't have to carry his bags anymore, but at twenty-seven he's a gloveman with a lifetime .269 average who will now be looking at world-famous sliders and heat. Sitting a couple of lockers away there's a celebrated but tired-looking shortstop in his late thirties, with two gated-community houses, a nanny, a nutritionist, a trainer, a motivational coach, two lawyers, a divorced wife, three foreign-marque cars, an agent, two chefs, and a part-time veterinarian on his payroll. Our rookie may be competing against this icon for a steady job next spring, but for that to happen he'll need two additional base hits a week, starting right now. The word "Help!" floats into his head, perhaps from not far away.

Baseball, we've discovered once again, is always better as a sample of American business life than as a place for moral lessons. It's still the national pastime.

Of all the firsts at Nationals Park last night, only Big League Stew noted the first cell phone waver.

Home Run Derby brings us stadiums modeled in Legos. Legos are made a town over from where I live.

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants start the season with a seasonal age 23 shortstop who never played above A ball and can't hit a lick. I suppose that's better than starting the season with an almost 41 year old shortstop that can't hit a lick. When you go around the Giants team, you find players who never hit or can't hit any more. Aaron Rowand takes Barry Bonds' place as the best offensive player on the team, but he's coming off a career year and is likely to regress. I would not be at all surprised if this turned out to be the lowest scoring team in the majors in 2008. They don't get on base, they don't hit for power, and I doubt they'll even have much of a batting average.

The pitching staff, unlike the position players, is young and talented. Cain, Correia and Lincecum all posted good numbers in 2007, and on a team with a decent offense they might each win 15 to 20 games. The best they can hope for in 2007 is good luck in close games.

Barry Zito remains a question mark. He turned in the highest ERA of his career as his strikeout rate continued to deteriorate. Barry posted awful numbers this spring as well, although that needs to be taken with a big grain of salt. This may go down as one of the worst pitcher signings, although it will be tough to beat Carl Pavano. What's worse, paying a pitcher a lot of money not to pitch, or to have him pitch badly?

I don't see the Giants competing with the other teams in the NL West. One hundred losses is a real possibility here.

San Diego Padres

There's a huge dichotomy between the Padres infield and outfield. Gonzalez, Iguchi, Greene and Kouzmanoff are all good players with upside at first, third and short. The outfield represents a huge question mark, however. Giles is old, Headley is young, and Edmonds is injured. Put that infield with two power corners and a good defensive centerfielder, and you have a pretty good team. Maybe some of that will happen. Headley's been sent down to AAA for a month to finish learning to play left. Supposedly Giles is healthy for the first time in a while and his power is coming back. Great seasons by those two would go a long way toward bring this club back to the playoffs.

They may not need that many runs anyway. Jake Peavy, Chris Young are great at the front of the rotation, and the back of the rotation is supported by a fine bullpen. That especially helps Maddux, who still pitches well but can't go deep into games anymore. The wild card is the oft injured Mark Prior. If he can work his way back into form my mid season, he'll provide a pitching boost to the team.

Right now, however, the question marks outweigh the certainty. With the outfield in shambles, it's tough to give the Padres as many wins as they earned last season. Right now, they look like a .500 team to me.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are a really good team that could be an even better team. They're certainly good enough to win the division, and with Kemp and Loney getting to play every day we should see an improvement in the team. The CBS Sportsline depth chart is now showing Ethier as the number one left fielder. That means only one of the two centerfielders they signed over the last two winters will play. If that's true, Torre is making the right move. Good for Joe.

With all the injuries at third base, the Dodgers are going young there as well as twenty two year old Blake Dewitt gets the assignment. His minor league batting numbers aren't anything great, but he looked like he could field his position against the Red Sox Saturday night. It's a golden opportunity for Blake to show he belongs in the big leagues.

The Dodgers rotation remains solid one through four, but the five spot as filled by Loaiza represents a big hole. If Esteban continues to pitch poorly, there must be some competent starter in the Dodgers organization who is capable of a sub-5.00 ERA.

I see this team with wins in the high 80s. My guess is the play of the youngsters will determine if they win the division or not.

Colorado Rockies

A good team usually sends out two great players, and surrounds them with a good supporting lineup. The Rockies send out three great players and surround them with two more who are close. Colorado returns five position players with at least twenty win shares. Holliday, Tulowitzki and Helton posted 30, 25, and 24 win shares respectively, while Hawpe and Atkins added 22 and 20. They keep mixing in new players, too, as Nix takes over at second, and an even better second baseman develops in the minors. If Chris Ianetta develops as a hitter this season, the Rockies might score even more runs than last season.

The pitching also looks to improve with youngsters. Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales move into the rotation full time, joining Francis and Cook. It's a mostly young team that's already good with most of their players at their peak. There's no reason they can't contend again in 2008. The fifth starter is a problem as Hirsh remains hurt, but all three contenders in this division face that same problem.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The addition of Dan Haren gives the Diamondbacks depth to a decent 2007 rotation. Webb was great, but there was over a run increase in ERA after the ace. That should change with Haren. On top of that, Randy Johnson looked good this spring, and he'll come off the disabled list soon to take over the third starter slot. That should give the Diamondbacks the top top of the rotation in the division.

Unfortunately, Arizona is going to lose Doug Davis' services due to thyroid cancer surgery. That puts the fifth slot into the hands of Edgar Gonzalez. Despite his high ERA, Gonzalez found his control in 2007, walking 28 in 102 innings. If he can repeat that ratio, he'll be fine.

The offense is a year older, and for most players in the lineup that means a year better. Justin Upton gets a full season to show what he can do. Stephen Drew disappointed in his first full season, but at age 25 he should be hitting his stride. Jackson, Reynolds, Young and Snyder should all be on the upswing of their careers.

This is definitely a better team than won the division in 2007. The front office realized that their record indicated a bit of luck, and fought against standing pat. They'll be a legitimate contender for the title in 2008.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division finishing:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. San Francisco Giants

The first three teams are very close. Arrange them in any order you like, I just feel Arizona did the most to improve their team over the off season. The first four teams are likely to put the curvature of the earth between them and the Giants. It's good division, especially if you like great pitching.

This is the last day of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. Won't you donate $1?

Sam Mellinger looks at how the Tigers went from laughingstocks to champions and compares that path to the one taken by the Royals:

It's funny, though. If you look at how the Tigers went from 119 losses to World Series contender, and squint your eyes a little while you're doing it, it might look like what the Royals are doing now.

It started with the hiring of a new general manager (Dombrowski), who brought in people he'd been successful with in the past (in Florida). They beefed up scouting and player development, focusing on consistently producing major-league players from within (like Curtis Granderson and Justin Verlander).

They were mostly ridiculed for their first major free-agent signing (Ivan Rodriguez) and then told they overpaid for a risky outfielder (Magglio Ordoñez).

In order, change the parentheses to Dayton Moore, Atlanta, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Gil Meche and Jose Guillen and it's at least similar in practice, if not results.

"We've got a lot of work to do here, and it's a lot of fun work," Royals general manager Dayton Moore says. "We're building something we're going to be proud of at some point in time. I don't know when that's going to happen. But we're confident."

Moore and the Royals get to test their plan against the Tigers this afternoon.

The Hyannis Mets of the Cape Cod Baseball League are not changing their name.

"Erroneous Internet reports have claimed that the Hyannis Mets have changed their name. While a wide range of possibilities have been explored regarding the trademark discussions between the Cape Cod Baseball League and Major League Baseball, any reports of an imminent name change are incorrect. In fact, the team's nickname and colors are reviewed by the Hyannis Athletic Associate on an annual basis, and 2008 is no different. The Hyannis Mets remain the Hyannis Mets, and look forward to the 2008 CCBL season as the Hyannis Mets."

Glad to see they are standing up to Major League Baseball on this.

Today marks the final day of the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive. The time to make your donation is now. So far, 165 readers donated $3503. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

I'd love to see the donor total reach 200. The individual donations don't need to be big. The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that over 42,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. There have been a few pledges at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 165 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. If you like the opening day coverage and live blogging, find $1 in your wallet. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink. A new premium is The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, donated by author J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics. The next three readers donating $75 or more receive a copy of this fantastic book.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

The dramatic ending happens. Ryan Zimmerman hits a two-out home run in the bottom of the ninth to win the game for the Nationals 3-2. He hit it in almost the same spot as Chipper Jones. There might be a little jet stream out to left center. It was the first hit for the Nationals since the first inning. A great ending for the Nationals fans.

The Nationals didn't generate much offense in this game, but they were aggressive when they had their opportunities. Nick Johnson taking the extra base in the first inning made a huge difference, as the Nationals probably lose 2-1 without that leg double.

Lots of good pitching in the game on both sides. You expect that from Tim Hudson, but the Nationals will take many more games like this from Odalis Perez.

The Nationals don't score in the bottom of the eighth. Chad Cordero gets a chance to pick up his first save. He'll need to get through the heart of the Braves order, however.

Update: That's what I get for listening to Jon and Joe. Jon Rauch comes in to start the ninth. Chipper hits a line drive right back at him for the first out.

Update: Teixeira doubles off the video screen in right. I wonder if Cordero injured himself warming up?

Update: According to Gammons, Cordero felt stiffness warming up. Rauch gets Francoeur to ground to second, advancing Teixeira to third. Then a pitch gets away and Teixeira scores from third, tying the game. It's a passed ball.

Update: That's all the Braves get. Rauch gets the first blow save in the new park. On the bright, the Nats get the chance for a dramatic walk off victory.

If Tim Hudson had started in the second inning, he'd be pitching a perfect game right now. Since Kearns singled in the first, Hudson retired the last 19 batters. He's losing 2-1, so he may be lifted for a pinch hitter, unless the leadoff man gets on and Sox elects to bunt.

Update: Kotsay flies out, and Brian Pena pinch hits. Hudson leaves the game after 78 pitches, 55 for strikes. He pitched well enough to win, but he needs the Braves to pick up two or more runs in this half inning for that to happen.

Odalis Perez comes out after five innings and sixty nine pitches. He allowed just one run on the Jones homer. He struck out two in the first inning, but that was it. Still, the Nationals have to be very happy with the one walk, four hit performance. If they can hold the lead, Perez can earn an opening day victory.

Saul Rivera pitches a perfect sixth to help that outcome become reality.

Devon Young sends this link to an article looking at the likelihood of Joe DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak. One of the interesting conclusions was that Joe wasn't the most likely player to hit for such a streak.

Back when I was with ESPN I did some research along these lines showing that Joe wasn't even the most likely player to get the streak in 1941. The probability of a long streak is related to what I call hit average, hits divided by plate appearances. That's the actual probability of a player getting a hit. The research didn't see the light of day, but Joe was third or fourth in career hit average among active players in 1941.

I believe, at the time, I figured the probability of Joe's streak was about 1 in 10,000.

John Royal posts a slide show of the the stadiums he's visited. He hasn't brought over his pre-digital photos yet, but you get a good feel for all the parks.

Chipper Jones delivers the first home run at the new park, hitting a rope into left-centerfield. The Washington lead is cut to 2-1 in the top of the fourth.

The Atlanta Braves just lost their second base runner of the night. McCann was thrown out trying to stretch a double into a double in the second as Kearns made a great play on a ball off the rightfield wall, hitting Belliard on the throw who threw the slow McCann out at second. Kelly Johnson tried to steal a base in the third, but was picked off by Perez. The Nationals still lead 2-0 in the middle of the third.

I like what I've seen so far. I'm so glad they didn't go with brick behind home plate. The granite (?) is a nice change as everyone seems to be using brick these days. I also like the long, straight walls in the outfield. Those should result in some interesting caroms.

I have to admit that Acta doesn't have many good choices for a leadoff man, but Cristian Guzman? Of course, he hits the first pitch for a line single into right for the first hit at Nationals Park.

Update: A wild pickoff throw by Hudson allows Guzman to take third base. He threw it to the outfield side of the bag, and ended up rolling down the rightfield stands.

Update: Milledge strikes out looking on a 2-2 pitch. It was low but in the strike zone.

Update: Hudson strikes out Zimmerman, as another low pitch fools the batter. Hudson is doing a good job of making up for the error.

Update: Nick Johnson makes a fine return to regular season baseball as he takes an inside pitch for a double. Just to show he's healthy, he surprised everyone by going for two. The throw from Francoeur was off, but Johnson would have made it anyway.

He then scores on a Kearns single, once again beating the throw by Francoeur. It was, of course, Kearns that Johnson collided with at the end of 2006 that led to the femur break. The Nationals lead 2-0.

Update: Lo Duca grounds out to end the inning, but the Nationals fans get a real treat as their team plays an excellent first inning in the new park.

Kelly Johnson fouls off Odalis Perez's first pitch to start the National League season.

Perez gets Johnson to strike out on a low pitch, a good way to open the new park.

Update: Perez gets ahead of Escobar 1-2, but the Braves shortstop is very selective and draws a walk.

Chipper Jones flies out to right on the first pitch he sees. Two down.

Update: Teixeira strikes out looking on a low pitch on the inside corner. Not a bad inning for Perez. The Nationals are coming to bat for the first time in their new park.

Denyce Graves does an absolutely beautiful rendition of the Star Spangled Banner to open the new stadium in Washington.

Joe Hamrahi is covering opening day at the Nats new ballpark. He has access to the pressbox and the clubhouse. Check it out.

Cardinals

This is a sad team. Not two years removed from their World Championship, St. Louis looks like a team scraped from the scrap heap. Even their great players are questionable. Albert Pujols's elbow is hanging together by a thread. If it blows, the Cardinals offense goes down with it. One reason for the Troy Glaus move was to take his foot off artificial turf. He did hit well this spring, so that's a positive sign. The other power hitter in the lineup is a converted pitcher. This is easily the worst set of position players in the division even with Pujols.

When it comes to the rotation, Adam Wainwright looks like the real deal, but like Albert on offense, there's not much behind him. Is the Cardinals minor league system that barren that they need to use a converted reliever and Kyle Lohse?

This team is not going to score runs, they are not going to prevent runs, they're simply going to lose. This could the worst team Cardinals have seen since 1995.

Reds

About two weeks ago I previewed the Reds during the Baseball Musings radio show and didn't like the fact that they were going with veterans over youth. Since then, however, they've been forced to include Edinson Volquez in the rotation due to an injury to Matt Belisle. So the move that bothers me now is starting the disappointing Corey Patterson over the young and upcoming Jay Bruce.

This looks like a very good pitching staff. Harang and Arroyo are as good as any one-two pitching combination in the division. With Cueto and Volquez following, the Reds could have a good chance to win on four out of every five days. If Bailey starts well in the minors, he might move in to replace the Dragonslayer Josh Fogg, giving the Reds a potentially spectacular rotation. Of course, young pitching can break your heart. Until Cueto, Volquez and Bailey prove they are for real in the majors, the Reds rotation should be considered just okay.

The offense is a question mark as well. The good players on the offense are low level good. Compare them to the Phillies, who sport four players who earned over 20 win shares in 2007. The Reds best four (Dunn, Phillips, Encarnacion and Griffey) are in the high teens, with only Dunn over 20. So at the moment, there is no superstar hitting on the Reds, just a few very good players.

That might change if Votto can become the slugging first baseman the Reds have lacked for so long. Otherwise, I don't see the Reds doing that well. The pitching is good, but they'll need Dunn and Griffey to be the Dunn and Griffey of old to have a shot at the division.

Astros

The Houston Astros brought in a new manager, new general manager, and wholesale changes to the team. How much of a difference it makes isn't clear. Miguel Tejada was the big prize, but that depends on whether 2007 was an off year or the start of a career slide for the shortstop. Berkman, Lee and Pence, however, give the Astros three great hitters in the middle of the lineup. Michael Bourn is a bit of a wild card. At 25 years old, he should be entering his prime. When he was in the low minors, he posted impressive OBAs, but hasn't kept that up as he climbed to the majors. All-in-all, it's not a bad offense, although I'm curious to see how well Kaz Matsui does away from Coors.

The rotation suffers the same problem as last year. Roy Oswalt gives them one of the best starters in the league, but there's little behind him. Backe returns from injury and the terrible Woody Williams is gone. The offense is going to need to score a lot of runs for these pitchers to win.

Jose Valverde takes over the closer role for Houston. Lately, closing for the Astros has been like drumming for Spinal Tap. Let's hope Jose fares better.

Like most of the teams in the NL Central, this is a decent team with big holes. They're not likely to win the division, but it's so close anything can happen.

Pirates

I'm somewhat surprised that I like this Pirates team compared the other four also rans in this division. It's not that they have anyone great on the team, but almost all of the players are decent. The projected starting eight all posted over ten wins shares each in 2007. Snell and Gorezelanny are competent starters and Capps is a good closer.

I suspect Jack Wilson won't post 19 win shares again, but I also might expect better performances from Bay, Sanchez and McLouth. It's one of those teams that can fool you. They've been bad so long that they must be bad again, except that somehow they've put a decent player at each position. If you drop a couple of superstars in this lineup, you'd like this team a lot. In this division, .500 and third place would not surprise me at all.

The new management of the team appears to be doing a good job of demanding better from the team. The previous group talked a good game but never delivered. We'll see if this GM and manager can bring about some changes.

Cubs

Barbara Feldon. Camp bus songs. Nena. The number of seasons the Cubs played since their last championship. Yes, 2008 could be the 100th season of futility for the team from Wrigley. They won't go down without a fight, however. The NL Central champs return a team with a good offense, bolstered by their addition of Kosuke Fukudome. He looked like an OBA machine in the spring, drawing 15 walks to lead all spring training players. He'll joining a solid core of Lee, Ramirez and Soriano. Youngsters Soto and Pie should also contribute more than in 2007, while Mark DeRosa is the only player likely to see a falloff in his batting stats.

Pitching, however, was the Cubs great strength last season. The additions of Lilly and Marquis worked out better than expected, as Ted turned into a fine number two starter. Rich Hill doubled his innings from 2006 while maintaining his great strikeout and walk numbers while cutting down on his home runs allowed. Ryan Dempster moves from the pen to the rotation this season to round out the best rotation in the division.

That's a good move for two reasons. Dempster wasn't a great closer last year, and Kerry Wood is healthy and ready to mow down batters again. There's a huge upside potential for Kerry here, and the Cubs can gain some wins with this move. Will it be enough to repeat over a very good Brewers team, however?

Brewers

Milwaukee's lineup looks monstrous. The addition of Mike Cameron gives them four players who earned over twenty win shares in 2007. Ryan Braun did it in a partial season, so there's plenty of upside in his bat. The move to left takes away the downside of his defense and makes the team better in the that department overall. Hardy was close with nineteen win shares, and a better Rickie Weeks might hit twenty as well. This is still a young team, and so most of the arrows point up for better hitting.

There are up arrows in the rotation as well. A healthy Ben Sheets is among the best in the game. A full season from Gallardo would help as well, although he starts the year on the disabled list. Manny Para looks like the real deal, so this Brewers rotation should serve as a nice complement to their powerful offense.

There may be some problems at the end of the game, depending on whether the Texas Gagne or the Boston Gagne shows up in the ninth. If the offense and starting pitching turns out to be as good as they look right now, the Brewers will play a good number of blow outs, and the closer's role becomes less important. This is a very strong Milwaukee team is a relatively week division. While they still have something to prove, there's a good chance that the runaway start of 2007 doesn't fade in 2008, and Milwaukee wins the division easily.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division standing at the end of the season:

1. Brewers
2. Cubs
3. Pirates
4. Astros
5. Reds
6. Cardinals

You can pretty much interchange 3-4-5 in any order and get a reasonable set of standings. This division should be the Brewers for the taking. If Yost fails to win with a healthy version of this team, Milwaukee should really look for another manager.

Bob Tufts donated $50 or more to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive and dedicates this post to the late Doug Pappas and all the excellent work he did with the business of baseball through SABR.

Bob also sends this story, about how the Albany steroid investigation may be in jeopardy because the district attorney was not registered to practice law!

But according to the records of the state's Unified Court System, Soares had no legal authority to act as a district attorney as he is not currently registered to practice law in New York State.

Or Florida either, for that matter.

All of the arrests and charges in the steroid scandal may be in jeopardy and may have to be dismissed because in New York State, persons who are not licensed members of the Bar of the State are prohibited from engaging in the practice of law.

That includes P. David Soares, Albany County district attorney.

This certainly hasn't been a good month for New York Democrats.

Update: Here's an update on the matter.

The Orioles released Gibbons and the Mets put a number of players on the DL, including Orlando Hernandez.

The North American leg of the 2008 Major League Baseball season gets underway tonight as the Washington Nationals host the Atlanta Braves. Not only is it the second opening day of the season, but the Nationals show off their new park to a National audience on ESPN. Unfortunately, the Nationals don't offer a team to match the quality of their new facility.

Tim Hudson takes on Odalis Perez in a lopsided pitching matchup. Since joining the Braves in 2005, Hudson won 43 games, one behind John Smoltz. He does this by keeping his walks low and the ball in the park. With Smoltz unable to start the opener due to an injury, Hudson steps in as a worthy replacement.

In 2007, Hudson showed almost no platoon difference. Lefties and righties posted the same batting average against him, while lefties managed two more points of slugging percentage. He did give up a few more walks to lefties, but was extremely effective against both sides of the plate.

Perez gets the opening day nod despite posting the second highest ERA in the majors since the start of the 2006 season (minimum 250 innings), 5.87. Perez actually posts good walk and home run numbers, but strikes out so few batters that all the balls in play against him turn into a ton of hits. Couple that with a .330 BA allowed with runners in scoring position during that time, and Perez's ERA isn't a surprise.

The big positive tonight for the Nationals is the return of Nick Johnson after missing a year due to a broken femur. The Nationals need big seasons from Johnson and the young newcomers Dukes and Milledge to have a chance to compete in the NL East this season.

Enjoy!

Get all your MLB baseball odds at Bodog Sportsbook!

Fukudome led the spring in walks while batting .270. You'd think the Cubs manager would be excited by that:

"He has had a very respectable spring," manager Lou Piniella said. "You have to get acclimated to baseball in this country. The pitching's different, the umpiring's probably different, the fields are bigger. In Japan they play on skin infields.

"He's going to be fine. Let's not put too [many] expectations on him initially. Let him build into this thing."

Fukudome is a top of the order hitter who can actually get on base. Nothing the Cubs need.

Florida Marlins

The chance of the Marlins losing over 100 games stands very high. The starting rotation might be one of the worst I've ever seen. Andrew Miller might be good this year, or he might need another year or two to develop. Henderickson is just bad. He's had a chance to prove he can pitch in the majors and failed. Olsen pitched poorly in 2007, as did Vanden Hurk. Nolasco is trying to come back from an injury. There's not a lot of upside on the mound.

The offense at least boasts Hanley Ramirez, an MVP candidate in 2007. But outside of Willingham and Uggla, there is no one else who contributes that many wins. The replacement of Cabrera with Cantu should cost the Marlins about nine games off the 71 they won in 2007. With just a terrible team, 62 wins is going to be an optimistic goal for the team.

Washington Nationals

Washington Trots out a backward rotation this season. Lannan is projected to post the best ERA, but he's been temporarily sent to the minors. Chico is projected to pitch the most innings, and he's the fourth starter. The two best Washington pitchers from 2007, Redding and Hill are nursing injuries. They'll start Odalis Perez to open their new ballpark. Perez's 2007 ERA: 5.57. Still they'll probably perform better than the Marlins.

The offense isn't great, but there's room for optimism here. Nick Johnson takes over at first base. Manny Acta seems to be committed to putting the players with the best OBAs on the field, and Johnson does that very well. It would be easy to give Young the position and make Nick earn it, but Acta wants the selectivity in the lineup. Dukes and Milledge represent the Washington version of Moneyball. They pick up "problem" players cheaply. It worked with Dmitri Young last year. If it works in 2008, the Nationals might end up at the high end of their win expectation, between 70 and 75 wins.

Manny Acta and Fredi Gonzalez make for an interesting pair of managers to watch. Both came into the league the same year, both from coaching other AL East teams. Acta did a good job getting the most from his players, while Gonzalez seemed to let the Marlins slip into mediocrity. We'll see how both perform this season.

Atlanta Braves

Some are predicting the Braves to make the playoffs, but I just don't see it. Their offense is good, but not as good as either the Mets or the Phillies. The rotation is a bit better than the Phillies, but nowhere near as good as the Mets. On top of that, the rotation is old. Smoltz already suffered an injury and starts the season on the disabled list. Glavine just isn't very good anymore. Hampton missed the last two seasons recovering from injuries. Even Tim Hudson is over 30, and age when pitchers need to adjust to falling velocity. There's just a lot that can go wrong there.

Jair Jurrjens should be fun to watch, however. He's the prize for trading Edgar Renteria, and he makes the team as the fifth starter. He also keeps a representative from the Netherlands Antilles on the squad. He's done a great job of keeping the ball in the park during his minor league career.

The Braves are building a strong team up the middle. McCann, Johnson and Escobar are the start of a young core that can contribute to the Braves for many years. They just need to find a centerfielder to go with them. Otherwise, this is really a corner offensive team, with most of the runs coming from Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira and Jeff Francoeur. This team should win games somewhere in the mid 80s, but that won't be enough for the division. With the close wild card races, it's possible if the Brave can get to 89 wins they might find the post season.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies field the best offensive team in the NL East. All eight position players earned at least 12 win shares in 2007, with the big four of Utley, Rollins, Howard and Burrell collecting over 20 each. The Phillies have more than their share of superstars, coupled with good complementary hitters. There's no huge holes in the Phillies batting order. With the best players being relatively young, there's not much danger of a big fall off in production, either.

The rotation, however, contains some question marks. Hamels stands as a legitimate ace, but Brett Myers is making the transition back to the starting rotation. If he returns to his form of 2005-2006, that's a great 1-2 punch in the rotation. Jamie Moyer is old and fading. He doesn't have to be great, but at some point, three runs in six innings might turn into four, and then his value on this high scoring team goes way down. Adam Eaton is pretty close to useless.

Kyle Kendrick presents an interesting paradox. Kendrick neither walk nor strikes out batters, allowing a ton of balls in play. That usually leads to more hits, but the Phillies were very good last season at turning batted balls into outs behind Kyle. PMR shows that the balls in play against Kendrick were easy to field as well. So Kendrick may be a pitcher who doesn't fool batters enough to get a swing and a miss, but fools them enough that they don't get good wood on the ball. If this is a real talent, he's in good shape. If it's just that hitters haven't figured him out, he's in trouble.

At the other end of the game, Lidge went on the disabled list and Tom Gordon takes over the closer duties. Maybe we'll see Myers back there before the season is over. I see the Phillies winning in the high eighties and having a good shot at the division and wild card.

New York Mets

If you list Pedro Martinez with his two win shares from 2007, the Mets starting rotation still collected the most win shares among all the teams in the NL East. If you assume Pedro is healthy and can pitch like he did at the end of the season, fifteen win shares is not out of the question, and the Mets staff blows away the other four teams. On top of that, the Mets offense is just a few win shares behind the Phillies. They could even be better if Carlos Delgado rebounds from an off year.

The back of the Mets rotation is where they really shine, however. John Maine and Oliver Perez each posted eleven win shares in 2007. No other rotation shows a 3,4 or 5 starter cracking double digits. Maine may not have reached his peak, however, and we could see him move up this season. If Perez retains the improvements of last season, the Mets rotation will be one to rival the best Braves rotations of the 1990s.

The Mets should win the division, easily if indeed Pedro remains healthy. Of course, this was true last March as well.

Predictions

Here's how I see the NL East finishing:

1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

I don't see much chance of a surprise from the bottom two teams. The Braves, Phillies and Mets are close enough that injuries or a surprise career year could easily rearrange the top three. It should be a fun, three way race, or at least a two way race for the wild card if the Mets turn out to be as good as I believe they can be.

Correction: Fixed the name of the Nationals. My strat team is the Washington Senators. They're off to an 8-0 start and I got confused.

The penultimate day of theBaseball Musings Pledge Drive begins. So far, 160 readers donated $3378. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

I'd love to see the donor total reach 200. The individual donations don't need to be big. The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that over 40,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. There have been a few pledges at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 160 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink. A new premium is The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, donated by author J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics. The next three readers donating $75 or more receive a copy of this fantastic book.

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I'm watching the Red Sox/Dodgers game from the Los Angeles Coliseum. The camera angles are lousy. The centerfield camera appears to be in right-center, giving a very different view of the pitcher/batter matchup, and making it difficult to tell balls and strikes. The Dodgers are playing the leftfielder in deep center, and the centerfielder behind second base. They figure if a ball goes over the shortstop's head it will hit the 60 foot screen.

There's no foul territory, including behind the plate. I don't think anyone will be able to advance on a wild pitch that goes straight back.

Update: Lowell actually pops out in foul territory!

The Astros cut Woody Williams, and he plans to retire.

It's tough to pick out Williams best year. His 18-9 campaign in 2003 was best in terms of wins, but his best ERAs came in partial seasons. Otherwise, he was pretty close to average every season. That is not a bad thing.

The Red Sox and Dodgers will get under way at the Los Angeles Coliseum in about an hour. MLB FanHouse has a picture of the stadium as they set it up for the game. Manny should have great range in that left field.

Doug Haller of the Arizona Republic polls Diamondbacks players to determine the five filthiest pitches in the game today.

The Brewers are trying to sign Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder to long term contracts. I think it's a great idea, and I hope the negotiations go well.

I wonder if Prince still feels hurt and insulted, knowing he has an offer worth tens of millions of dollars on the table.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Florida Marlins. Their starters posted a 5.58 ERA in 2007, highest in Major League Baseball.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Florida Marlins top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Mark Hendrickson	124	67	4.86
Scott Olsen	166	88	4.77
Andrew Miller	83	45	4.88
Rick Vanden Hurk	99	59	5.36
Ricky Nolasco	73	37	4.56
Totals	545	296	4.89

It's really sad when a team finishes last in a category and they do nothing to fix it. It's even worse when they degrade the rotation by insisting on starting pitchers like Hendrickson and Vander Hurk. Marlins fans can hope that Miller plays well in his first full season in the majors, but as for the rest of the rotation, the Maroone call to the bullpen will happen early and often.

Without the ballpark adjustment, Miller is projected to allow less than one home run per nine innings. Playing in Miami, it should even be lower. I'd like to see his projected walks improve. It was excellent in the minors.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Washington Nationals
• Seattle Mariners
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Texas Rangers

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

Kansas City Royals

I expect an improved team in Kansas City this season. Butler, Teahen and Gordon are a year older and more experienced. Jose Guillen adds some pop to the outfield. Zack Grienke gained control of his demons and pitched very well at the end of 2007, while Brian Bannister may be the most sabermetrically fluent pitcher in the game.

Still, there are a number of negatives. Tony Pena is an offensive black hole at shortstop. The back of the rotation offers very little; they're going to keep the bullpen busy. Mark Grudzielanek keeps getting playing time over Esteban German.

The X-Factor on this team is Trey Hillman. He did wonders for the Nippon Ham Fighters, and I've liked everything I've seen from him in spring training. The talent is there to compete with the Twins and possibly the White Sox. If Hillman can work his magic, and third place finish is a possibility for this squad. The main thing for Royals fans to realize is that this team is moving in the right direction.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins lost a good outfielder and a great pitcher over the winter. They may end up replacing the pitcher with Francisco Liriano. He's progressed well this spring, although he'll start the season in the minors to build his strength a bit more. They may have replaced the outfielder with Delmon Young. All that does, however, is keep them even with 2007, a season in they finished four games under .500.

The number one starter spot goes to Livan Hernandez. Hernandez is capable of pitching a high number of innings if you don't mind his giving up lots of runs. The Twins may need those innings to save the bullpen, however, as the rest of the rotation is very young, and even when Liriano returns Minnesota is likely to baby him. That will put pressure on a good bullpen. If they get burnt out, this team could go into a free fall.

I don't like the whole left side of the field, however. Lamb, Everett and Monroe just don't generate a lot of wins, leaving a lot of the hope of winning on the backs of Mauer and Morneau. If Mauer stays healthy, he should play better than in 2007, but Morneau slipped from his 2006 MVP year.

The Twins at best should finish about the same at last year, but I could easily see them falling to seventy wins in 2008.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are the best of the three also rans in this division. With Dye, Konerko and Thome, the team is still capable of generating offense. The additions of Swisher and Orland Cabrera improves the team up the middle, as the White Sox received little from short and center in 2007. If Carlos Quentin matures into a good hitter this season, the White Sox are going to do well in scoring runs.

Unfortunately, the decided to go with veterans over youth at second and third. I'm not sure how much difference it really makes to the team, but I'd rather gamble on the upside of Fields and Richar than stick with the predictable okayness of Crede and Uribe.

The pitching staff is fine at the top with Buehrle and Vazquez. Only the Indians have a better 1-2 punch in terms of 2007 win shares from those spots in the rotation. But for this team to do well, they'll need Danks and Floyd to develop into first rate starters.

The White Sox did improve the team, and I could easily see them winning 81 games this season. That, however, won't be enough for them to win the division.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers easily boast the best offense in the division. The lowest 2007 win share total for one of their nine batters was 13 by Ivan Rodriguez. Cabrera and Ordonez each generated at least 30, and two other were over 20. When Granderson returns, this is a lineup without holes.

On top of that, the trade for Renteria improves offense at first and defense at shortstop, without losing that much offense at the latter position. Renteria should be be able to make up for some of the range lost on the left side of the infield with Cabrera replacing Inge.

When the Tigers reached the World Series in 2006, everyone marveled at their pitching. The promise of that young staff faded in two years, however. Justin Verlander is rightfully the ace of the staff, but Jeremy Bonderman remains a frustrating player. At times he pitches brilliantly, but mistakes seem to prevent him from becoming truly great. Last year it was his problems in the first inning. Dontrelle Willis hasn't lived up to expectations either. One great season does not make a great pitcher. Now, given the Tigers' offense, they may not need these two to be great to win. If Bonderman and Willis shine, however, the Tigers should take the Central easily.

The one big concern on this team is injuries to the bullpen. With Rodney and Zumaya both on the shelf, teams might be able to score some runs in the seventh and eighth innings. It's another reason Willis and Bonderman need to get off to good starts, so they can go deep in games until the pen is healthy again.

This team should win over 90 games this year.

Cleveland Indians

Usually when a team fails to win the pennant, they look to fix the weak spots on their team. Cleveland, despite falling to Boston in the ALCS, decided their squad was fine as is and pretty much brings back the same players as in 2007. Asdrubal Cabrera gets to play full time this season. When the Indians place him at second in August they took off, running away with the division after that. Like Detroit, they own two 30 win share players in Martinez and Sizemore, but don't quite have the offensive depth of the Tigers. On the plus side, Travis Hafner should rebound from his below average 2007 season, which could boost the Indians offense a great deal.

While the Indians offense doesn't match Detroit's, no one comes close to Cleveland's starting pitching. Sabathia and Carmona each posted over 20 win shares in 2007. Westbrook and Bryd are decent back of the rotation pitchers, and Cliff Lee will try to show 2007 was a fluke. Cleveland can afford to have those three at the back of the rotation, because Sabathia and Carmona pitch so many innings, and they bullpen is really great. The Indians are one of the few teams I've seen where the middle relievers are better pitchers than the closer. The hurlers getting the game to Borowski all are strikeout artists, meaning the Indians can shorten game to as little as five innings if they can get the lead. I'm usually not big on bullpens. The small sample sizes of the pitchers make them tough to predict from year to year. Cleveland's pen, however, has the talent to make a real difference in the Central.

My main worry with this team is Fausto Carmona. His innings in 2007 went way up from 2006. He threw about 100 more innings over that previous season, and that's a warning sign for future injury.

Still, Cleveland remains a great team who should battle Detroit all year for the division title and everyone else in the league for the wild card.

Predictions

Here's my predicted order for the AL Central

1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota
5. Kansas City

I go back and forth on Cleveland and Detroit for the division, but right now the bullpens appear to be the deciding factor. It's very close however, maybe 51% Cleveland 49% Detroit. Kansas City and Minnesota should be competitive with each other. At this point, I assume that Liriano will pitch well, but if not, the Royals should finish fourth. I think it will be a good battle for third place with the White Sox, although don't expect any of these teams to be much above .500.

The Twins are going to have Francisco Liriano make at least two minor league starts before they use him in a major league game:

"He's been fine," Gardenhire said. "He's progressed. He progressed again today. His slider is fine. He's pretty close, but he's been out for a year. This is the right way to handle the situation."

Matt Treanor defends Joe Girardi's handling of the Marlins pitching staff:

But it is a subject that has not died easily. Matt Treanor, Marlins current backup catcher for Girardi and now, said, "You know I am going to get into trouble even talking about this stuff." The implication was the front office would not like it.

However, Treanor, first baseman Mike Jacobs and second baseman Dan Uggla all praised Girardi's season managing the Marlins, describing him as passionate for the game, caring for the players and -- yes -- protective of the young pitchers.

"I don't think it was cause and effect," Treanor said. "I never saw anything that anyone was abused on the mound. Joe is not that type of guy."

Joe was the manager and the pitchers got hurt. Pitchers, unfortunately, do get hurt. We'll see how he does with the new crop of youngsters.

The Giants are going to need a lot more performances like the one Tim Lincecum gave Friday night if they are going to compete this season. The team is 9-21 this spring. Teams that play under .333 in the spring tend to play very poorly during the regular season.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. With three days to go, 157 readers donated $3333. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that over 40,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. There have been a few pledges at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 157 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink. A new premium is The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, donated by author J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics. The next three readers donating $75 or more receive a copy of this fantastic book.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

Jon Heyman reports on the reason Jose Canseco hates A-Rod:

Canseco claims in his new book, Vindicated, that the reason he "hates [Alex Rodriguez's] guts'' is because A-Rod hit on Canseco's then-wife Jessica. However, people who were close confidants of Canseco insist the actual reason the ex-ballplayer despises A-Rod has nothing to do with Canseco's former wife but regards Canseco's true passion, which, of course, is money.

Those former confidants told SI.com the rift between the two Miami-raised superstars actually occurred when Rodriguez chose not to let Canseco and his brother, Ozzie, be his agents. Those former confidants say Canseco was bitterly disappointed in A-Rod's business rejection.

"I know Jose, and I know Jose very well. He would be madder at A-Rod for not signing with the agency than for going after Jessica,'' said Juan Iglesias, a well-respected Miami-based player agent and former business associate of Canseco's.

Iglesias also dispells the idea that A-Rod hit on Canseco's wife.

Tyler Kepner finds an important similarity between Joe Girardi and Yoda:

Yoda's most famous quote, of course, was: "Do, or do not. There is no try." Turns out Girardi believes the same thing.

"He expects you to get the job done," Treanor said. "One time in spring training, somebody said, 'I'm going to try to do this.' I remember his comment was, 'I can get a truck driver to try.'

"So basically that means, you're out there to do it, by whatever means you have to do it."

There you have it, the distilled wisdom of the Yankees' new manager, straight from the playbook of a three-fingered puppet.

That's enough to link to a Weird Al video:

I saw Al perform this live at the old Jonathan Swift's in Cambridge, MA in 1983. He opened with this song, and really rocked. He still has the same guitar, bass and drummer he had then.

The Diamondbacks confirmed Doug Davis's thyroid cancer, as reported here yesterday.

Davis is expected to make his next few starts, Hall said, before undergoing surgery sometime within the next three weeks.

"We're not sure about the timetable after that," Hall said. "We're deeply saddened and concerned for Doug but we're still in the process of collecting facts and applying that to timing."

My best wishes to Doug for a quick and complete recovery.

Via River Ave. Blues, LoHud offers this interactive salary database. It should be a valuable research tool.

Suspensions are on hold:

Negotiators are close to an agreement that would call for more frequent drug testing and would strengthen the authority of the independent program administrator. If there is an agreement, the suspensions of Gibbons and Guillen most likely would be eliminated as part of an overall amnesty for players implicated in the Mitchell Report.

I wish they had done this before the Mitchell report so the players would feel free to talk to the investigator.

Dan McGowan invited me on his podcast to talk about the upcoming season. You can listen here.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Texas Rangers. Their starters posted a 5.50 ERA in 2007, highest in the American League. Their 838 innings represented the fewest pitched by a starting staff in the majors.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Texas Rangers top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Kevin Millwood	168	86	4.61
Vicente Padilla	140	77	4.95
Jason Jennings	130	69	4.78
Kason Gabbard	100	49	4.41
Luis Mendoza	51	23	4.06
Totals	589	304	4.65

This is just a bad rotation. When the one-two starters each project to ERAs well over 4.00, and only one of them has barely enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, there's going to be trouble. They can't go deep in games, which puts pressure on the bullpen. They get injured, so that brings in replacement starters, who tend to be not as good. Everything builds, and before you know it the whole staff is performing badly.

The positive spin is that Gabbard, Mendoza and McCarthy might develop into good starters, and a healthy Jason Jennings can give the rotation some much needed innings. The rotation starts with such low expectations, there's nowhere to go but up!

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Washington Nationals
• Seattle Mariners
• Tampa Bay Rays

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

The Wall Street Journal ranks Ron Gardenhire as the best manager in baseball. The study ranks Scioscia, Francona and Torre 14th, 16th and 17th respectively. Subjectively, I would not rank those three that low, and I'm not sure how many people would. It would be neat if someone took these 20 managers and asked people to rank them 1-20 to see how they did. My guess is that this study missed something about why these managers have been so successful over the last decade.

Red Reporter sees the cutting of Mike Stanton as proof that Cincinnat wants to win this year.

Update: Red Reporter also uses my favorite word in the title of another post.

Dugout Central relays a great story they heard John Franco talk about on radio. Bobby Valentine used the noise from the planes flying over Shea to assist in picking off runners at second. It's a good example of how Valentine could be a very clever manager.

Correction: Sorry, I wrote Julio but I meant John.

On Baseball and the Reds doesn't like the term sabermetrics.

While I know this is probably a minority opinion, I really dislike--almost despise--the term "sabermetrics." Maybe it's just because I didn't grow up with Bill James. But that term has always sounded both pompous and half-baked to me--like we're trying to claim some kind of grand authority or officiality by coming up with an official-sounding name for what we do.

I think at least part of the backlash against "sabermetrics" has as much to do with that name as anything else. I've occasionally interacted with a local reporter in Cincinnati for some stat-inspired articles on the Reds over the past year, and one thing I've tried to stress (as have the other folks like me who have contributed to these articles) is to try to avoid calling us sabermetricians. I don't want to give people that as a reason for ignoring some of the ideas we advocate.

I'd much prefer it if everyone just called what we do what it is--baseball research. There's nothing really special about it...we're just searching for better understanding of how the game works.

I used to work for a company call Dragon Systems, Inc. The name came from the owner's hobby of collecting Chinese Dragons. You can see the logo here. The company built the best speech recognition software available, but other business people would constantly complain about the name and the logo. They'd tell us no one knows why you do by the name. They'd say the logo looks like you're a Chinese restaurant. They were probably right, but the owners kept the name and the logo and built a very successful business because they built a damn good product.

The upside of the name was that when you said, "I work for Dragon Systems," everyone had to ask what the company did. If I said, "I work for Voice Products of America," they'd say that's nice and move on. The same is true for sabermetricians. Baseball researcher, big deal. Sabermetrician, what's that about?

My good friend Jim Storer is married to a doctor at Yale Medical School. She was at a reception for new fellows, and the various new doctors are being introduced. The MC notes that one is a sabermetrician, and asks, "Does anyone know what that is?" Linda raises her hand and answers, "Sadly, yes." That great bit of comedy doesn't happen if he's a baseball researcher.

So Justin, if you don't like the term, don't use it. Be a baseball researcher. But don't deny others the fun of being a sabermetrician.

Halos Heaven points out that the Angels fifth slot in the rotation will challenge Dustin Moseley:

Those thinking that Moseley will not be so important to begin the 2008 campaign have obviously not closely examined the Angels schedule. The first three off days of the season (April 10, 21 and May 8) are all spaced to prohibit skipping the 5th starter until May 12th. That would give Moseley (or his replacement should Dustin be too terrible to bear) a MINIMUM of 7 starts (April 4, 9, 15, 20, 26, May 1, 6) before the staff could be expected to each pitch on normal rest and be able to skip the turn of the 5th starter. And those are plump assignments - 1 start against both Detroit and Cleveland, 4 games against AL West rivals (2 Vs. Texas, 1 each against Oakland and Seattle) and Kansas City on the road.

The Angels can hope for a quick return by John Lackey. At that point, do you use Moseley and Santana as a home road platoon?

The St. Louis Cardinals take the early lead in the challenge trade of Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus:

Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals in an offseason trade, Rolen was injured when he was hit on the hand by a ball during a fielding drill Sunday on a back field at Dunedin, Fla. A screw was inserted in his finger during surgery Monday.

"The doctor gave a 4-6-week window from the time of surgery," said Rolen, whose team beat the Houston Astros, 8-3, in an exhibition game yesterday.

Big League Stew breaks down the opening day starters in five categories, from The Franchises to The Forgettable.

The Orioles unveiled their new scoreboards Thursday. All the scoreboards around the park, the three big screens in the outfield and the thin strips on the stands are now LED and video capable. The big one in centerfield is HD, but they don't have HD content for it yet. There's video of the video at the link.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. With four days to go, 154 readers donated $3278. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that almost 39,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. There have been a few pledges at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 154 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink. A new premium is The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, donated by author J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics. The next three readers donating $75 or more receive a copy of this fantastic book.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

The food at Nationals Park gets a good review:

Finally, we walked the concourse, sampling the food. I won't speak for Ian, but my Italian sausage (pictured above) was great, and much better than RFK. Not wanting to overeat, I only had the sausage and a taste of pizza (which tasted better too), but reports from all the other journalists we walked with had good reviews of the other items. For a full view, check out the Menu for Nationals Park. Side note - Stan Kasten seemed to enjoy the French Fries.

Mark Prior keeps making progress in his rehabilitaion.

John Perricone donated $50 or more and dedicates this post:

Congratulations for supporting David's efforts to run the very best baseball site there is. He is, of course, my blogfather, and one of my biggest and earliest supporters. Please continue to drive towards a big pledge month, and of course, please visit David's blogson, Only Baseball Matters.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. Their starters posted a 5.20 ERA in 2007, thirteenth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart, sort of. I'm assuming here that Kazmir will be back soon and Hammel is better than Jackson.

Marcel predictions for the Tampa Bay Rays top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Scott Kazmir	178	71	3.59
James Shields	180	83	4.15
Matt Garza	104	49	4.24
Andy Sonnanstine	125	72	5.18
Jason Hammel	95	59	5.59
Totals	682	334	4.41

For a more optimistic look at the Rays rotation (using PECOTA) see my latest SportingNews.com column. Something that Marcels don't pick up that PECOTA captures is fielding. The Rays swapped out one of the worst fielding shortstops of 2007 for one of the best. That should make a big positive difference in the team's ERA. My guess is that Garza and Sonnanstine are going to pitch closer to 160 innings, and eventually they'll replace Jackson with Hammel. Fans are likely to be impressed with the improvement of the team's ERA this year, partially from their pitchers maturing, and partially from the defense playing much better.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Washington Nationals
• Seattle Mariners

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

River Ave. Blues is holding a fund drive to raise money for the Jorge Posada Foundation.

Craniosynostosis is a birth defect characterized by the premature closure of sutures in an infant's head, which causes an abnormally shaped skull and in severe cases, places excessive and damaging amounts of pressure on a growing child's brain. One in every 2,000 children are affected, with males being affected three times more than females. Jorge Jr., son of Yankee great Jorge Posada, was diagnosed with craniosynostosis when he was just ten days old, and has since undergone five surgeries to the correct the condition.

The Jorge Posada Foundation was launched in 2000 with the goal of providing emotional and financial support to families with children affected by craniosynostosis, as well as to provide funding for research and create further awareness of the condition. Since it's inception, The Jorge Posada Foundation has raised millions of dollars and provided immeasurable support to those in need, but there's still so much more that can be done. And that's where we come in.

Readers are asked to pledge a certain amount per strikeout by the big three, Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy. If you're a fan of the pitchers, or the catcher, or just want to help combat his defect, click over and pledge.

Peter Gammons writes that Doug Davis has thyroid cancer. I don't see a story yet. My best wishes to Doug for a complete recovery.

I have a cousin who had thyroid cancer when she was 18. Nearly forty year later, she's still with us.

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

My lastest column at SportingNews.com looks at which team projects to have the best rotation in the AL East this season.

Hideki Matsui married his girlfriend yesterday, setting off a wave of bet paying on the Yankees.

Nick Markakis brought the "wrath" of Dave Trembley on himself by taking grounders at second, and then at short. Obviously, the manager doesn't want the hitting star of the team injured on a bad hop.

Markaksis may have the right idea, however. The Orioles are going to have no offense at the position this year. Nick probably played short coming up through high school, why not give him a chance? He can't be much worse than Jeter, and it's a lot easier to find a slugging outfielder than a good offensive shortstop. Plus, his botching balls at the position will really give the Orioles pitchers the incentive to strike out a lot of batters!

With Barry Bonds now a non-person, the Giants makes promises they can't keep:

"With Barry Bonds gone," Magowan said, addressing the media throng, "this is clearly the beginning of a new era for the Giants."

He promised a "younger, faster, more energetic ballclub."

Magowan noted that last season's Giants were 4-16 in games that were tied after eight innings. Aha, the team had a bad habit of running out of gas. Remember, Bonds often couldn't go nine, and when he didn't start, sometimes he wasn't available for late-game pinch-hitting.

Team vice president and COO Larry Baer promised that this season's team is built "with players that are not only going to play hard, but with a team concept."

Magowan, discussing the projected starting outfield that has Dave Roberts in left and Randy Winn in right, said, "We had a bad defensive outfield last year. ... Winn and Roberts had to play out of position."

Because what's-his-name was moored in left field.

So count on it: younger, peppier, more energetic. But not all at once. Seven of the eight projected starters (once Omar Vizquel returns) have an average age of just under 35.

If you really want a youthful team, you do what Cleveland and Florida did. Trade or release all the veterans and put young players on the field.

Bob Sheppard won't be on hand for the last opening day at Yankee Stadium due to health issues. I hope he manages to make it back for some games this year.

The Folks at DRays Bay want him for Tampa Bay. It's absolutely amazing to me that the Cubs can't find a place for this hitter. I expect Billy Beane to swoop in and grab him.

Hat tip, THT.

Update: USS Mariner likes the idea of Murton in Seattle.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. With five days to go, 149 readers donated $3185. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that over 37,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. There have been a few pledges at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 149 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink. A new premium is The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, donated by author J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics. The next three readers donating $75 or more receive a copy of this fantastic book.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

Pat Jordan tells you all you need to know (and somethings you don't) about Jose Canseco. I need to go disinfect myself now.

Hat tip to Alex Belth.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Seattle Mariners. Their starters posted a 5.16 ERA in 2007, twelfth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Seattle Mariners top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Erik Bedard	171	70	3.68
Felix Hernandez	174	77	3.98
Miguel Batista	166	84	4.55
Jarrod Washburn	176	86	4.40
Carlos Silva	177	91	4.63
Totals	864	408	4.25

Faced with a truly bad rotation, the Mariners made two moves to improve their starters. They traded the future for another ace, Erik Bedard. They also signed Carlos Silva, a master of putting the ball in the strike zone. Silva doesn't walk many, but his pitches in the zone can be hittable. However, he's a very good back of the rotation pitcher, which is all the Mariners need. After competing despite two horrible starters in the rotation, the Mariners look a lot stronger this year.

One question that needs to be answered is can Felix Hernandez be effective and healthy at the same time. He was off to an amazing start before an injury shelved him. Can he pitch like that again without putting his arm at risk? It's a similar question the Twins have with Liriano.

I like this rotation. The front end might be great, and the back end isn't terrible. Not too many teams can say that. With the injuries in Anaheim, the Mariners look like they have the best staff in the AL West.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Washington Nationals

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

ABC New posted a long excerpt of Canseco's new book. I found this interesting as it somewhat contradicts the story that Bonds started juicing after the 1998 season:

As I drove off, I remembered an earlier meeting with Barry Bonds, and suddenly our little encounter made perfect sense. It was back in February 2000. We were in Las Vegas, for the Big League Challenge, a home-run hitting contest at Cashman Field. I was given $100,000 just to show up, and I was told that the winner would take home $600,000. I'd just had back surgery, though, so I figured I'd be lucky to hit anything at all.

When we were in the locker room, changing before going out into the field, I took off my shirt and found Bonds staring at me, his eyes bugging out of his head. "Man," he said, "you are ripped!"

I guess I was. I looked like Dolph Lundgren in Rocky IV. There wasn't an ounce of fat on me (if I may so myself). I was 255 pounds of chiseled, high-def power.

"You have to tell me what the hell you've being doing," he said.

"I'll tell you after the game," I said.

We went outside, and I knocked several moon shots out of the park, including twenty-eight bombs in the last round. I went home with the $600,000 enchilada.

Bonds hadn't even made the finals, and he was in a lousy mood, but he waited for me because he wanted us to have our little talk. I told him everything I knew. It was Jose Canseco's Guide to Steroids 101, and over the years I'd had that identical conversation with hundreds of other guys, players and non-players alike.

A few months later, when the regular season got underway, Bonds showed up with an extra thirty pounds on him, all of it muscle. And I'll be the first to tell you: you don't get that kind of muscle just from working out. It's literally impossible. Now, I'm not saying I saw him use the stuff, because I didn't, but I was pretty much an expert on the subject of steroids, and I can tell you that steroids had changed the man -- including the size of his goddamn head. That head was hard to miss!

And of course his performance spoke volumes. Here was a guy who'd never broken 50 home runs in a single season, and suddenly he hits 73, breaking the previous major league record, McGwire's 70.

There's also video of his Nightline interview here.

Kelvim Escobar appears to be done for the season if not longer.

I believe that Escobar will attempt to rehab, and is just considering retirement after learning that his 2008 season is all but lost. It's gotta be depressing, and I don't blame him for having doubts. The article mentions Mark Mulder and Bartolo Colon as two other pitchers attempting to rehab from the same injury, and we all know how that's going.

This certainly brings Seattle that much closer to winning the division. Trading for the now in Bedard might not look so bad at the end of the year.

Former manager Preston Gomez was seriously injured in a car accident:

Preston Gomez, the beloved, 84-year-old special assistant to the Angels general manager, is in critical condition at a Palm Springs hospital this morning after being hit by a pick-up truck at a gas station in Blythe.

Gomez, on his way home from spring training, had stopped at a Chevron station at about 6 a.m. this morning and told his wife he was going to take a walk to stretch his legs.

According to Detective Sgt. Jeff Wade of the Blythe Police Department, Gomez "went around the pumps into the next aisle and right in front of a large pick-up truck that was driving up to re-fuel."

Gomez, Wade said, "suffered pretty major head injuries" and is believed to have suffered internal bleeding. He was taken to a local hospital, stabilized, and then air-lifted to the Desert Regional Medical Center in Palm Springs at about 10 a.m.

I remember him as the first manager of the Padres. I hope he pulls through.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Washington Nationals. Their starters posted a 5.11 ERA in 2007, fifteenth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Washington Nationals top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Odalis Perez	136	82	5.43
Jason Bergmann	109	57	4.71
Tim Redding	100	49	4.75
Matt Chico	143	71	4.47
John Lannan	77	36	4.21
Totals	565	295	4.70

A clue that this rotation doesn't work is that the fourth starter is projected to pitch the most innings, and the fourth and fifth starters project to the lowest ERA among the starting five. It's really sad that the Nationals can't come up with a better solution than Odalis Perez for opening day.

Shawn Hill starting the season hurt certainly doesn't help. Although he projects to a good ERA, he doesn't project to a lot of innings either. Expect this team to use lots of starters this season.

Update: Lannan was just optioned to AAA. However,

Manny Acta said he could be back soon depending on Shawn Hill's status.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• St. Louis Cardinals

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Jarrod Saltalamacchia starts the season at Oklahoma. It seems the Rangers want him to play every day to develop more as a catcher. I say let his bat do the talking.

The commissioner of my Strat-o-Matic league sent an email with the following subject:

Pinto's blog as a throwaway line in a National Review Online piece.

Here's the article, a summary of the hot stove season:

Chances are that you haven't paid attention to many Major League Baseball offseason news items over the past five months, excepting perhaps the very public crash-and-burn of Roger Clemens's reputation. For those who are neither daily readers of BaseballMusings.com nor frequent guests at Jose Canceso's wild parties, but who still love the game, here's a primer to get you caught up in time for Opening Day -- in America, anyway. (The Boston Red Sox and Oakland A's opened the season in Tokyo this morning.)

Thanks for the mention!

David Ortiz did not like the shift in time brought about by the trip to Japan:

The time change hit Ortiz perhaps as hard as any player, with the Sox' DH going through sleepless nights during both his first and third days in Japan. He said the second day was when the jet lag hit him like a ton of bricks, although the feeling of uneasiness hasn't gone anywhere.

"By the sixth inning, you start feeling it," he said. "Mentally you try to get through it, but your body isn't getting the signals."

The most visible example of Ortiz' struggles came in the Red Sox' season opener when, with the Red Sox trailing by a run in the eighth inning, the usually clutchest of performers found his bat a bit slow. The result was a weak pop up to left field and a hitter searching for a solution.

"You fight it," Ortiz said. "When I went up to the plate after my third at-bat it was a serious fight. You know normally I'm the type of guy who likes that late-game situation, but that was tough."

It took my daughter a good week to get back to normal after spending a week in Japan.

Here's a very nice comparison of the injuries to the thumbs of Adrian Beltre and Andy LaRoche. We get a nice history lesson as well.

Cardinals Diaspora makes the case for Anthony Reyes making the Cardinals starting rotation:

Why do I get the sinking feeling that we'll regret Anthony Reyes being skipped over for a rotation spot in favor of Wellemeyer...or, hell, Braden Looper. Spring trainings stats, as we've mentioned ad nauseam, are a deceitful thing, but Reyes pitched like a man out of time yesterday, building on a decent little run this month. I've been irrationally exuberant on Reyes' stock before. This time around though, it's tough to read reports of a guy throwing well all spring as part of a team so desperate for starting pitchers they're starting the season with a rotation consisting of 60% converted relievers, only to see him exiled to triple-A.

I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense. If spring is a time to earn a place on the roster, then Reyes should get a shot.

Mike Lowell singles to start the ninth against Embree, bringing in Sean Casey to make his Red Sox debut as a pinch hitter.

Update: Casey does his best Jim Rice impersonation by grounding into a double play. It's up to Varitek.

Update: Varitek strikes out to end the game. That's 13 on the game for Boston batters, a level they only reached or exceeded three times last season. Varitek now has struck out six times in eight at bats.

Rich Harden gets the win and the A's bullpen puts in a solid outing, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out three over three innings of work.

A's fans also have to be happy that Oakland generated ten runs over the two games. This isn't a bad offensive team.

Emma Span is tired of commerative patches.

The Red Sox fly Kurt Suzuki shallow in the outfield, and he flies to the wall in left-center for a double, his second of the game. He's had a good series with three hits, two doubles and a walk. Fiorentino drives him in with a single to extend the lead to 5-1.

In the middle of the eighth inning, it's still 4-1 Oakland. Both bullpens are doing a good job. Foulke just pitched the eighth, and allowed one base runner on a Crosby error. He did end the inning with a strikeout, as Manny Ramirez went down for the third time this game. The Red Sox batters now struck out a dozen times on the game. They only struck out at least 12 times in a game six times in 2007.

You know how American broadcaster take shots of the managers in the dugout between every pitch? NESN is taking the Japanese MTV feed, and they're going to shots of Dice-K in the dugout between every pitch. Remy and Orsillo are ran out of things to say about Matsuzaka about four innings ago, so they're now having some fun with all the angles they're getting in the dugout. I think the broadcaster knows what's going on and is doing it on purpose now.

I've never understood why dugout shots are more interesting than watching the batter, pitcher and catcher set up on the field.

Rich comes out for the sixth inning. After a pop out by Youkilis, Harden goes after Ortiz. He fools him with two off-speed pitches to send Big Papi down on strikes, his ninth of the game.

Manny, however, gets a pitch he can hit and sends it deep into the left-center stands to put the Red Sox on the board. It's 4-1 Oakland. Manny may not hit a single this season. :-)

Update: Lowell flies out to end the inning. Harden finishes with 95 pitches thrown, 60 for strikes. He walks three, strikes out nine and his only mistake was the homer to Manny. A fantastic outing for Rich.

Rich Harden allows the Red Sox a second single, but erases that runner with a double play. He's now gone five innings with eight strikeouts and three walks. At 81 pitches, he might come out of the game. If he does, Oakland fans have to be quite excited to see this performance. He appears to be throwing free and easy on the mound, hitting his spots with good velocity. It's a great way for Harden to start the year.

Jon Lester is through after four innings and David Aardsma starts the fifth for Boston.

Mike Lowell gets the first hit for the Red Sox in the fourth inning, a single. That's all the Red Sox get, however, as Harden strikes out his seventh of the game.

I'm glad Rich allowed the hit. At 73 pitches, he's not long for the game and I would hate to see him removed with a no-hitter going.

Derrick Goold remembers Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA in 1968:

"You knew you weren't going to get a lot of runs," Gibson said. "Shoot, every time I pitched it was against Ferguson Jenkins or Juan Marichal ... every one of my starts was just about against one of those guys. What were the chances of us scoring a lot of runs? It just didn't exist. You had to keep other teams down, or you'd lose."

Hold teams down he did, unlike any other modern pitcher before and since. This season is the 40th anniversary of Gibson's 1.12 earned-run average, a number that defied logic and led to a rule change that altered how the game is played.

In 1968, Gibson went 22-9, pitched 304 2/3 innings and had 13 shutouts -- at least one against every team in the NL besides the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the entire season, Gibson was never removed from a game in the middle of an inning.

At some point, the cycle will turn again and pitching will dominate the game once more.

Emil Brown makes up for his base running blunder of game 1 by hitting a three-run homer in the bottom of the third to put the Athletics up 4-0. Lester issued his third walk of the night, then with one out gave up a single to Mike Sweeney. Brown followed with a shot to left that was gone when it left the bat.

Harden walks two batters in the third, bringing up Ortiz with two on and two out. David was 4 for 4 with two homers and a double versus Rich, but Harden gets him on a foul fly down the third base line. Hannahan made a nice play, running a long distance to make a catch with his back to the plate.

The Athletics aren't very happy with their status on this trip:

Officially, the A's are the home team, wearing the home uniforms and batting last. But somehow, the Sox were given the home dugout and the home clubhouse, which is significantly roomier with additional trainer's rooms.

...

But the playing of "Sweet Caroline,'' the Red Sox' unofficial them song, in the middle of the eighth inning may have sent the A's completely over the edge

.

Winning and hiring Japanese stars has its advantages.

A double by Crosby and a two-out single by Denofria plate the first run of the game in the Athletics column. Suzuki drew a walk in between, giving Lester two for the game. The base on balls is Jon's weakness. Oakland leads 1-0 after two innings.

Correction: Suzuki, not Hannahan, drew the walk.

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If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

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Harden strikes out two more batters to run his total to four in the game as he's retired six of the first seven batters. Even with the low number of balls in play (just two), he's working somewhat efficiently, with 34 pitches through two innings.

They picked a bad trip to ban amphetemines:

Before we get into the game let me get to the real important stuff. Clubhouse manager Joe Cochran said that the Red Sox have just about burned through the four cases of Red Bull they brought along. One case includes 25 cans, and half the shipment is diet while the other is regular.

Jon Lester pitches a similar inning to Harden just issuing a walk to the #3 hitter, Barton. No hits, no runs after one inning.

The second game of the Japan series is about to get underway with Jon Lester facing Rich Harden. In a way it's the come back game. Lester made his return from cancer in 2007 to help the Red Sox win the World Series. Harden tries to come back from a series of injuries. You almost worry that the Athletics rushed him back a bit. He might have been better off staying in Arizona rather than making this arduous trip.

Harden represents one of two major comebacks going on this year in the AL. The league lost two of their best in Santana and Haren over the winter. A return to form by Liriano and Harden could go a long way toward filling in that gap.

Harden starts strong by striking out Pedroia to start the game.

Update: Harden pitches carefully to his nemesis, David Ortiz, and walks him. Rich is hitting 95 MPH on the gun, and strikes out Manny to end the inning.

Tim Daloisio is looking for people to take part in a wisdom of the crowds project to predict how Red Sox players will perform this year. The more people that participate, the better results he'll obtain.

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

The Hall of Fame changed leadership today, but it's not clear why. It sounds like Dale Petroskey was a bad businessman. Save the Fame Game responds with praise for both the incoming and outgoing presidents.

I wonder if accepting the asterisk ball has anything to do with it?

Kelvim Escobar suffers a setback in his rehabilitation. It doesn't sound major at the moment.

Hat tip, Halos Heaven.

The White Sox decide to go with Joe Crede and Juan Uribe instead of Josh Fields and Alexei Ramirez. They're going for the known rather than the unknown. We'll see if it turns out to be the best choice.

Thank goodness I have the HD package.

Bless You Boys sorts out the Tigers outfield now that Granderson is starting the season on the disabled list. Inge is going to get some playing time there. I bet as the season progresses, Brandon is going to play a lot more than he thought. He's seems to be the first replacement for almost every position. However, I would guess that moving Jones to center, Cabrera to left and letting Inge play third would give the team the best defensive alignment with Curtis on the sidelines.

The Tigers and Miguel Cabrera made his new contract official today:

Cabrera's agent, Fernando Cuza, confirmed the contract is worth $153.2 million, which includes the one-year contract Cabrera had agreed to previously.

Asked his long-term career goals, Cabrera said, "The World Series."

I asked J.C. Bradbury and Mitchel Litchman in an email to clarify their positions on Cabrera's salary, and Mitchel now says he made a mistake in his calculations:

I think I screwed up in my post. When I looked at my database, I looked at the column for dollar value and not RAA (runs above average). His dollar value was 19 (million) in my chart and I thought I was looking at +19 runs above average.

So he is indeed worth 4-5 WAR, which is worth around 21.5 mil per season, based on 4.5mm per marginal win (plus minimum salary of .38mm).

An honest mistake. It's a very good deal for the Tigers.

The Chicago Cubs acquired Reed Johnson today. I wonder if they're concerned about Pie?

Joe Lavin got his hands on a copy of Canseco's new book and provides spoilers. Since it's a humor column, I don't know if it's made up or not.

Hat tip, FanHouse.

Update: The post appears to be real. A-Rod was asked about both accusations and gave a no comment to both. Alex is a lot smarter than Roger Clemens when it comes to keeping his mouth shut about things that might get him in trouble.

Update: River Ave. Blues still thinks it's a joke.

Nice photo of Jacoby Ellsbury's catch at the Projo SoxBlog.

I go take a shower, and the Red Sox score two runs. With Lugo and Ortiz on Manny hits his second two-run double of the game, giving Boston a 6-4 lead. It was a blast off the centerfield wall. It looks like Manny's winter regimen is paying off. That's all the Red Sox get as they go to the bottom of the tenth with Papelbon coming on.

Update: Barton battles Papelbon to a 3-2 count then draws a walk to start the inning.

Update: The A's have drawn seven walks in this game, but only one of those runners came around to score.

Update: Cust strikes out swinging. After being hit in the first, Cust goes 0 for 4 with 4 K.

Brown hits a double to right center that drives in Barton, but then gets caught in a run down between second and third. He throught the throw was going through, but it gets cut off and Brown is out. Once again, the A's hurt themselves with a base running blunder as Crosby lines a single to center that would have tied the game.

Update: Hannahan lines a single to left to put runners on 1st and 2nd with two out. Papelbon is looking extremely hittable in this inning.

Update: Suzuki grounds out to Youkilis to end the game.

The Red Sox did not pitch pretty in this game, but timely hitting by the Red Sox and a base running blunder by the A's give Boston the victory, 6-5. The crowd is happy as Okajima gets the win.

Huston Street comes on to try to earn a save for the Athletics in the ninth.

Update: Lowell flies out to shallow center for the first out.

Update: Who needs Drew? Moss homers just over the wall down the line in rightfield to tie the game at four. Both teams blow saves in this game.

Update: Varitek strikes out for the third time in the game.

Update: Ellsbury lines out to end the inning. Okajima starts the bottom of the inning to the biggest ovation of the game.

Update: Okajima starts off with a strikeout of Suzuki.

Update: Mike Sweeney pinch hits for Ryan Sweeney and draws a walk. No one sings The Trolley Song.

Update: Jeff Fiorentino pinch runs for Sweeney.

Update: Buck flies out to deep center, Fiorentino fails to tag.

Update: Ellis bounces back to the mound to end the inning. The Japanese fans get bonus innings.

Emil Brown hits a ball to the warning track in straight away center than Ellsbury catches with a backward leap. He crashes into the wall but holds on to the ball. The NESN announcers are calling it a great catch, but I think he leaped too early. If he stays on his feet and keeps running I think he gets under the ball. Still, and out's and out, and it must be difficult playing under that white ceiling.

The A's go 1-2-3 in the eighth. The Sox have three outs to get one run. Lowell, Moss and Varitek are due up.

Rays of Light feels Tampa Bay's management lied to the fans about Longoria:

But it goes back to being able to put the best team possible on the field. That's what we've heard - essentially - from the front office all off-season. Who among us really believes that Willy Aybar rather than Evan Longoria is the third baseman on the best possible team? And that, again, goes back to the feeling that we were lied to - at least a little bit. 2008 ISN'T the year in which "one day" becomes "now." 2008 is just another building year to some season in the future. And FriedCo. is going to have to deal with the backlash that comes from that.

Keith Foulke returns to the majors as he starts the eighth inning for the Oakland Athletics.

Update: Youkilis and Ortiz hit the ball hard and deep, but they stay in the park for outs. It's Manny's turn.

Update: Manny swings and misses at two splitters, then takes strike three looking on the outside corner. Foulke is off to a good start in 2008.

Kyle Snyder relieves Matsuzaka to start the sixth and gives up a single to Crosby to start the frame. Hannahan follows with a home run to take back the lead! Hannahan is known for his ability to get on base, not for his power. That's the second home run of the game for Oakland, neither by one of their power hitters.

Update: That's all the A's get. Now we'll see if the bullpen can hold that lead for three innings.

Update: Embree gives up a hit in the seventh, but induces a Lugo double play and gets out of the seventh facing the minimum. Time to stretch.

Dustin Pedroia gets the Red Sox off to a good start in the sixth with a double over the head of Travis Buck. It's a ball Buck could have caught against the wall if he timed it better.

Update: Blanton walks Youkilis, his first of the night. He throws the first pitch to Ortiz in the dirt as well. Joe's in a dangerous situation here.

Update: Blanton falls behind Ortiz 2-0, but comes back to get David to pop out foul on a 3-2 pitch. Manny, however, follows with a double down the third base line to drive in two runs and tie the game.

Update: Lowell strikes out swinging for the second out, but Moss singles to right, driving in Manny. Buck makes a mistake, overthrowing the cut off man to put Moss at second.

Update: That's it for Blanton. He threw 93 pitches, 58 for strikes, and it looks like he went one inning too long. The A's inability to take full advantage of Dice-K's wildness early on cost him a win here.

Update: Embree is on in relief.

Update: Embree strikes out Varitek to end the inning. We'll see if Dice-K comes out for the bottom of the sixth.

Blanton and Matsuzaka continue retiring batters in the fifth. No one has reached base since the third inning. Dice-K fans two batters in the fifth to bring his strikeout total for the game to five.

The A's offense is demonstrating both their strength and weakness in this game. They're good at drawing walks, but poor at getting the hits to drive those runners around.

The Star reports that Alex Rios is on the verge of signing a six-year, $65 million contract with the Blue Jays. That would buy out his first four years of free agency. That seems about right for Alex's talent and his age, maybe a little low.

Blanton retires the Red Sox 1-2-3 in the top of the fourth, the first 1-2-3 inning of the season. Joe allowed four hits so far, but no walks, and all the hits went for singles. With one strikeout today, he's letting his defense help him.

Update: Matsuzaka answers with a 1-2-3 inning of his own. He's over 80 pitches now, however. I'm sure he feels he can go longer, but I wonder if Francona feels the same way.

Giambi receives praise for his play at first this spring:

"The thing I've learned is that you have to change your training," Giambi said. "It stunk going through everything, but it all was a blessing in disguise. Even tearing my foot."

Giambi did much more sprint work this off-season and worked on explosive techniques that made him quicker on his feet.

"A few years ago I would have said there was no chance I'd be training like I am now," said Giambi, who was batting .406 this spring. Tino Martinez is surprised at how well Giambi is playing.

"He's actually moving around better than I thought," Martinez said. "I think he was feeling tentative in the past. The whole key is moving your feet but not being afraid to make a mistake. You don't want to hold the ball when you got an easy out at second and just get the guy at first. In the past he would do that. Now he's not afraid to go and get lead runners. That really helps the pitching staff."

We'll see long that lasts during the regular season. Having Giambi at first, however, gives the Yankees their best offensive team.

Matsuzaka gets two easy outs, then issues his fifth walk of the game. Suzuki hits a hard liner that Lugo catches with a leap to end the inning. Matsuzaka is up to 75 pitches, 38 for strikes.

With two outs and Lugo on first, Youkilis rolls one down the third base line. Hannahan makes a diving stop to prevent an extra base hit, and just misses getting Kevin at first base. That brings up Ortiz with two on and two out.

Update: Ortiz hits a hard liner to the edge of the outfield, but Ellis is shifted and picks the ball up on one hop for the third out. Blanton worked harder in that inning, but is still under 40 pitches for the game.

Matsuzaka issues his third walk of the game with two out in the second. Suzuki led off the inning with a single, and a stolen base later he's at second with Ellis at first.

Billy Beane should be proud of the A's process in this game. They're very selective today, and have taken a number of close pitches for balls.

Barton walks for the second time in the game to load the bases, and that brings the pitching coach to the mound.

Update: Daisuke catches Cust looking to end the inning. Still, it's another 30 pitch inning for Matsuzaka, bringing him up to 60 for the game. Tavarez is warming up.

Moss starts in rightfield for the Red Sox today. Drew was scratched with a bad back. Moss grounds into a force out in the second inning after Lowell singled to start the frame. Varitek grounds into a double play to end the inning.

Update: Blanton repeats his 10 pitch, 8 strike performance of the first inning.

Travis Buck hits the first pitch he sees from Matsuzaka, grounding it to Pedroia for the first out of the inning.

Update: Mark Ellis scores the first run of the season as he takes a 1-0 pitch over the left-centerfield fence for a home run.

Update: Daisuke seems to be losing his control. He walked Barton and hit Cust.

Update: Matsuzaka throws a wild pitch to put runners on second and third.

Update: Brown walks to load the bases. Matsuzaka walked 80 in 204 innings last year.

Update: Crosby appears to get caught looking on a 1-2 pitch, but Reed called the pitch low. It was a good pitch, and could have gone either way. On the next pitch, Crosby hits a nubber that Matsuzaka fields, but his only play is first and the A's go up 2-0.

Update: Matsuzaka comes back to strike out Hannahan, but he was still wild in the at bat. He throws 30 pitches, only 13 for strikes. This early in the season, Matsuzaka won't last long in this game.

Joe Blanton starts the season by throwing a strike to Dustin Pedroia. Dustin bounces the second pitch slowly up the middle, just out of the reach of a diving Crosby to start the season with a single.

Update: Blanton pitches a strong inning. Youkilis grounds out to third on a ball that Hannahan bobbled, preventing a double play. Ortiz pops out and Manny flies out to foul territory in right to end the inning. Joe throws ten pitches, eight for strikes.

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If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink. A new premium today is The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, donated by author J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics. The next three readers donating $75 or more receive a copy of this fantastic book.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

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I'm watching the teams get introduced. It's very American. There's a band in centerfield playing Sousa. They introduced all the players in English only. It was all very fast paced. In the US, they usually leave time for one player to run out before the next one is introduced. Here it was rapid fire. Matsuzaka received the biggest cheer, but it was short. A Japanese quartet performed an excellent version of the Star Spangled Banner, followed by a Japanese opera singer performance of the Japanese National Anthem.

And so it begins.

The Red Sox travel to Tokyo to play the Oakland Athletics at their temporary home stadium, the Tokyo Dome as the two teams kick off the MLB season six days early. Daisuke Matsuzaka returns to his home country; the $100 million dollar man comes back champion of the world.

Dice-K started strong, compiling a 10-6 record with a 3.84 ERA before the All-Star break, but a 5-6, 5.19 ERA after. One thing to look for this year is if both Matsuzaka and Okajima keep their stamina up through the entire season.

Joe Blanton takes the mound for the Athletics. With the departure of Dan Haren and the injury history of Rich Harden, Joe emerged as the A's ace. His strength is avoiding the free pass. His low home run rate, however, is more a function of his home park. He's allowed a .377 slugging percentage at home versus a .433 on the road. The Red Sox as a team, however, have just two home runs in 123 at bats against Joe.

I'll be up early live blogging the game.

Enjoy!

Could this be the year another team challenges the Yankees and Red Sox for the top spot in the division? The AL East certainly looks like the best division in the AL. New York and Boston send out all-star lineups, very solid one through nine. The pitching on both teams features strengths, weaknesses and question marks. Toronto and Tampa Bay show strengths as well. This could turn out to be a very interesting division.

Baltimore Orioles

The easy prediction in this division puts the Orioles in last place. They project to have the worst offense and worst pitching staff in the AL East. The trades of Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada leave Orioles fans without a lot to enjoy on the major league level. Jeremy Guthrie, the play of Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts, and the development of Adam Jones may be all they can cling to this summer.

Apart from those players, there's not much upside on this squad. Daniel Cabrera might fool us and find his control. That would make him a good pitcher and give the Orioles a chance to win 40% of the time. Otherwise, there's not much to expect from the older players on the team like Hernandez, Millar, Mora and Huff. Following the minor league system might be more rewarding.

Tampa Bay Rays

I didn't realize until I visited their MLB page today that not only did this team drop the name Devil, they dropped the whole fish motif. The Rays are now Rays of light, and you might say those rays mark the dawning of a new era in Tampa Bay.

Did you know that Kazmir and Shields combined for more win shares in 2007 (33) than Beckett and Matsuzaka (31), Halladay and Burnett (30) or Wang and Pettitte (30)? That's a pretty good 1-2 punch, and they are likely to get better. Kazmir starts the season on the disabled list, but a mid April return shouldn't hurt the team all that much. They add Matt Garza to the rotation which should be a plus. I'm very interested to see what Jason Hammel and Andy Sonnanstine do with a better defense behind them. The addition of Jason Bartlett replaces one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game with one of the best. That alone could make all these pitchers look a lot better.

The big story out of spring training was the demotion of Evan Longoria. In 42 spring at bats, he posted a .407 OBA and a .595 slugging percentage. Seven of his eleven hits went for extra bases. What's sad here is that the Rays are obviously making this move to delay Longoria's free agency clock and possibly his arbitration clock. Will a month without Longoria kill the Rays chances? Probably not, but if they miss the playoffs by a game or two, fans will remember this decision.

Even without Evan on the team early, the Rays show a lot of potential improvement on offense. Navarro, Gomes and Upton are young and have time to grow. A full season of Iwamura should help the team's OBA, as will playing time from Cliff Floyd. I suspect Carlos Pena will drop off a bit, but even a ten percent decline would still result in a great season.

The Rays dropped their Devil may care attitude and are walking toward the light. This may not be their year, but it should be the best year in franchise history.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto boasts the most solid pitching staff in the AL East. Granted, that depends on the continued health of Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, but Toronto also sends out the three through five starters most likely to perform well in the division this season. I like Marcum's and Litsch's walk rates, and McGowan's strikeout rate. These three pitchers are capable of keeping the Blue Jays in every game. With a little run support, they'll be a very good back of the rotation.

That run support needs to come from a healthy Vernon Wells. While the Jays pitching looks to be the best in the division, the Jays offense isn't that far ahead of Baltimore. Even with a boost from Eckstein replacing McDonald at short and a healthy Wells and Overbay, this isn't a great hitting team. Rolen, Thomas, Stairs and Zaun are more likely to decline than improve. The pitching will need every run they can save to help this team win.

Boston Red Sox

When the Red Sox signed Bartolo Colon, I became aware that the Red Sox are skating on thin ice when it comes to their starting rotation. In 2007, the Red Sox supplemented their starting staff with great performances by Gabbard, Lester and Buchholz. Kason is now in Texas, while Jon and Clay moved into the rotation. With Schilling injured, the sixth pitcher becomes Julian Tavarez. It could turn out that Lester and Buchholz are great, but they are still young and inexperienced. They could easily run into rough spots.

Of course, Matsuzaka now has a year of major league experience under his belt. He's had a chance to learn the hitters and make adjustments, so he may be ready to emerge as a Cy Young candidate himself. It's a good rotation with a lot of upside potential, but they don't have much room for error.

The offense looks great once again. I wouldn't be surprised if Lowell fell off after the great season he posted in 2007, but Manny Ramirez seems to have rededicated himself to the game. He put himself through a tough workout regimen in the off season, and he's hoping the Red Sox will pick up his options the next two seasons. Moving his win shares from 15 to the high 20s will certainly help with that. In addition, Drew and Lugo are due for a rebound, and Ellsbury should improve the offensive side of centerfield. Scoring runs won't be a problem for this team.

With B.J. Ryan still questionable, the Red Sox also boast the best end of the game pitching in Okajima and Papelbon. It's a seven inning game when Boston has the lead.

New York Yankees

The Yankees offense still blows away the rest of the field. Even if you factor in likely declines off 2007 numbers by A-Rod and Posada, they're still and incredibly strong team, and those declines could easily be countered by a full season from a healthy Jason Giambi. The rest of the offense produced numbers that should be easily repeatable for 2008, meaning the Yankees are likely to lead the league in runs scored.

The question marks for the Yankees are in the starting rotation. Pettitte and Wang are solid, but behind them is an old Mike Mussina and two youngsters, Hughes and Kennedy. This rotation is actually very similar to Boston. Two good, dependable starters up front, and old guy in the middle and two inexperienced pitchers at the back end. Boston has the advantage between the old men as Wakefield is probably better than Mussina at this point, and that gives Boston a slight advantage there.

With Joba Chamberlain moving to the bullpen, the Yankees also can shorten games. I'd like to see Chamberlain perform over a longer period and Rivera bounce back from last year before I put them on a par with Okajima and Papelbon, however.

Predictions

Here's how I see the division ending in 2008:

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

The Yankees get the nod on their superior offense. The edge the Red Sox have in pitching isn't enough to make up the difference. You can flip the Jays and Rays and get just as good a prediction.

The one thing that could change everything is age. While the Yankees and Red Sox are working in youth, they still carry a number of older players. Boston signed Lowell, and the Yankees brought back Posada and Rivera for a few more years, on top of the long term A-Rod contract. While I don't expect any of these players to fade in 2008, the possibility exists that it could happen. What if Drew and Ramirez don't rebound, but find their 2007 declines were real? What if all those years catching catches up to Posada? What if injuries keep accruing to Matsui and Damon?

The Toronto Blue Jays brought in Rolen and Eckstein, but they might be subject to the same ravages of age, along with Zaun. This is where the young Rays have a chance. Almost everyone on the Rays is likely to play better this season. That, and a massive age attack in the other three cities could put Tampa Bay on top. Let's say I don't put a high probability value on the above standings. It's an exciting division where anything can happen.

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Redleg Nation corrects Dusty Baker's faulty memory.

This is supposed to happen to the old players on the Giants:

San Francisco Giants infielder Kevin Frandsen ruptured his left Achilles tendon in a minor league game Monday and could miss the entire season.

Frandsen, who was expected to be a key utility infielder and perhaps start at times at second base, injured his leg while running the bases after getting aboard on a single.

The fact that he was expected to be a utility infielder amazes me. At this point, he's more a futility player.

Aaron Gleeman proposes an interesting theory on who Ron Gardenhire praises and who he criticizes.

The Dirtbag-O-Meter just hit 0. The Rays assigned Longoria to AAA.

Nobody should be surprised by the move at this point. We admit, we thought this would bother us more, but it really doesn't. The loss of Scott Kazmir at this point hurts a lot more. Longoria could have eased that pain a bit, but let's face it. As long as the Rays rotation includes Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel, the Rays are in trouble.

I understand the move, but I don't agree with it. I'll see if I can get the Baseball Musings Durham bureau to report on his progress. (You'll notice in the picture Dan hasn't shaved in a week.)

Cosmic Log looks at the science of baseball statistics quotes me from the AAAS meeting I spoke at in February.

Joe Nathan received a contract extension from the Twins. It looks like $33 million for three years (through 2011) with a club option for 2012.

The contract is very much in line with the deal Francisco Cordero got from the Reds, but it's not quite as much as the $15 million that Mariano Rivera will be making with the Yankees. Which is just another reason why I don't understand why Nathan did this.

If Nathan played out the season without this extension, he'd have been a free agent at season's end. Which means one of two things would have happened. He'd either pitch the whole season in Minnesota, hit the market, get an offer for about $15-$17 million a year and move on, or he'd get dealt to a contending team at the deadline before becoming a free agent at the end of the year.

To me, that's what would have been best for both teams. Nathan would have actually gotten more money, and had the chance to play on a contender, and the Twins could have gotten a few more prospects for Nathan to help speed up the mini-rebuilding project they need to finish. But, hey, I've never had the chance to turn down $33 million before, so I can't say I wouldn't have done the same thing.

On top of all that, it's much easier to find a closer than a league ace. I'd have let Joe go and used the money to keep Santana.

Via FishStripes, Jorge Cantu underwent a vigorous pool training program his winter and now he's tearing up spring training.

''We have our own techniques,'' trainer Dennis Fay said of the Texas Sports Medicine facility in Houston. ``We use water exercises, breathing-underwater drills, extreme yoga. We work on a player's bat speed with a series of chains. The chains are on a handle, and they swing the chains to build up their speed.''

Unconventional?

''It works,'' Cantu said. ``That was the key for me being really strong this spring, Dennis Fay. He pushed me to the max to see what was my strength level.''

I remember touring New Comiskey in the early 1990s, and they showed us the tub Bo Jackson used to rehabilitate his hip. He started running submerged up to his neck. As he grew stronger, they raised the floor so he was supporting more of his own weight. The next year, Ozzie Guillen used the tub to rehabilitate his knee and I believe cut his time on the DL by 1/3.

Rich Lederer reminds us of the baseball history of the Los Angeles Coliseum.

Today is the sixth anniversary of the start of Baseball Musings. I want to thank all the people over the years who helped make this site successful by linking, commenting, advertising, donating and of course reading. I love working on this site and hope to keep it going as long as I live.

There's a little bit of concern about David Price's elbow in the Rays World this morning.

Scott Segrin sends along this article (with a hat tip to Rightfield Bleachers) on how the height of the mound causes stress on pitchers:

The study found that, compared to flat ground, pitchers on a 10-inch mound can experience increases in superior shear and adduction torque in the shoulder. According to Raasch, that means a greater amount of stress on the joint surface and surrounding structure.

Some injuries can be devastating: a rotator cuff or labrum tear. And months of rehabilitation.

Raasch and his researchers recruited 20, top-level major-league pitchers as well as Milwaukee-area Division I college pitchers for the study. The researchers used a motion-analysis system using eight digital cameras that recorded the three-dimensional positions of 43 reflective markers placed on their bodies.

Using different mound levels - flat, 6 inches, 8 inches and 10 inches - the cameras focused on determining whether there was increased stress at different levels.

At the moment, they're not saying lower the mound, but further study could lead in that direction.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the St. Louis Cardinals. Their starters posted a 5.04 ERA in 2007, fourteenth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Adam Wainwright	149	62	3.74
Braden Looper	131	67	4.01
Kyle Lohse	163	86	4.75
Todd Wellemeyer	78	39	4.50
Brad Thompson	103	49	4.28
Totals	624	303	4.37

At the moment, this is a cobbled together rotation. Wainwright gives the team a legitimate number one starter. However, he went from 75 innings in 2006 to 202 innings in 2007, and that puts him at risk for injury. The Cardinals own a lot of injury depth, however, as Pineiro, Clement and Mulder are working their way back for an early season return, and they may even get Chris Carpenter on the mound in the second half of the season.

These injuries are a golden opportunity for pitchers like Lohse, Wellemeyer and Thompson to earn a permanent spot in the rotation. Given the history of Lohse and Wellemeyer, however, Thompson has the best chance of sticking around. Given the general lack of talent in these five and all the injuries, I suspect the rotation that ends the season for St. Louis will look very different from the one that starts the year.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Pittsburgh Pirates

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

Major League Baseball announced first round sites for next year's World Baseball Classic. I assume the threat by the Dominican Republic to pull out of the tournament if they didn't host is no longer on the table.

J.C. Bradbury at sabernomics.com loves the Miguel Cabrera deal:

As hard as this is to believe, given the contract size, this is an amazing deal for Dave Dombrowski and the Detroit Tigers. I have Cabrera valued at $268 million over this time period, and this accounts for his first two years of the deal being restrained by arbitration.

In the comments to this post, Mitchel Lichtman disagrees:

Just because that is what he MIGHT get, does not mean he is WORTH that. Whether a signing was good or bad should be based on what a player is worth, NOT what he is perceived as being worth by other teams. If a player is overrated, based on what he would likely get as a FA, and a team signs him for that, or even less, then it just means that that team overrated the player also - and consequently it was NOT a good deal.

Cabrera is overrated because of his poor defense (even though, unlike a player like Jeter, it is well-known that his defense is poor), and the fact that he plays a slightly below neutral (to the left in the spectrum) defensive position, and for other unknown (to me) reasons. His WAR value is 3.5 to 4 wins. That ain't worth 20 mil a year. More like 16-18.

For the last two seasons, Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) pegs his WARP1 at 9.6 and 8.2, and his WARP2 at 11.0 and 10.0. The Hardball Times has his Win Shares over bench at 21 and 18, or 7 and 6 wins. For the moment, I'm agreeing with Bradbury on this, although I'd love to see why MGL rates Cabrera so much lower than these other two measures.

You can receive a copy of Bradbury's book, The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, with a $75 donation to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Brian Kamenetzky inteviews beat writer Matt Hurst on the state of the Angels.

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The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that over 33,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. There have been a few pledges at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 134 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink. A new premium today is The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, donated by author J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics. The first four readers donating $75 or more receive a copy of this fantastic book.

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Two months ago I thought this division would be a cake walk for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (LAnaheim Angels), but now I'm not so sure. Not only do the injuries to the Angels front line pitching hurt the team, but I get the feeling people are underestimating that Seattle Mariners. Here's a look at the division.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers are building a strong team up the middle. With Saltalamacchia, Young, Kinsler and Hamilton, the middle of the diamond could turn into a tremendous strength for the Rangers as Daniels continues to slowly put this team together. It looks like the Rangers don't think Jarrod S. is quite ready to take over the catching duties from Laird, but still I like the direction Texas is headed.

Unfortunately, Daniels still needs to build a decent team around that middle. In order to compete this season, the Rangers are going to need a number of players to be outstanding. A healed Hank Blalock would need to show that it truly was injuries, and not a lack of talent that led to his long offensive slide. Kevin Millwood needs to return to the form that led the American League in ERA. Gabbard and McCarthy (when healed) need to show that they were worth the trades. Jason Jennings needs to show that he's healthy and back to his 2006 form. Milton Bradley needs to keep his cool.

That's a lot to ask. The more likely scenario is that some of these players perform well, and some keep disappointing. This team has a way to go before they're ready to challenge for a division title, but at least they look like they're set to improve over the next few seasons.

Oakland Athletics

This is a rebuilding year for Oakland. They traded away two of their best, young players in Haren and Swisher to stock up on prospects so they are ready to compete in the not too distant future. Unfortunately, they didn't shed two players that pulled them down recently, Eric Chavez and Bobby Crosby. Chavez, however, is seriously injured. Instead of being ready for opening day, the A's shut down his rehabilitation. This opens the door for Jack Hannahan to move into third base. That may turn out to be a positive for Oakland. Hannahan is not a prospect nor anyone who is going to be a star. He is 28, right in his prime, with a good minor league OBA but little power. Given the poor performance by Chavez last season, it's tough to believe Hannahan won't be an improvement.

There are some good and potentially good offensive players on this team. Cust, Buck and Barton could all turn in excellent seasons. Offensively, I really like the idea of Suzuki catching every day. Those four, and another good year from Ellis and the A's have a decent chance of scoring some runs.

On the pitching side, the big question concerns the health of Rich Harden. A healthy Harden more than makes up for the trade of Dan Haren. He's pitched seventeen innings this spring. They're not great innings as he's struck out thirteen and walked seven, but he's still pitching. That give the Athletics a chance to pick up a big positive from their number one starter.

To me, that's the most encouraging thing about the Oakland lineup. When I go up and down the win shares of the likely starters from last year, I see a number who can and should do better in 2008, and almost no places where I would write a minus sign. Is that enough to get them into contention in the division? Probably not, but it's enough to make them an interesting team to follow in 2008.

LAnaheim Angels

The Angels start in a huge hole as their top two starters, John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar begin the season on the disabled list. Instead of replacing Ervin Santana's three win shares with Jon Garland's thirteen, they are replacing Lackey and Escobar's forty win shares with Garland's and Moseley's eighteen.

On top of that, I'm wondering when we are going to see decent production out of the youngsters in this lineup. Napoli, Kendrick, Kotchman and Aybar are all between 24 and 26, which means we should be seeing something near peak this season from them. Maybe the four all mature together, much like the Rockies youngsters did last season. So far, however, I've been less than impressed with the Angels prospects turning into major leaguers.

I also wonder if Vlad, Hunter and Figgins can repeat their 2007 production. The two outfielders are over 30 years old, so the probability of a decline becomes greater. Figgins career is so up and down it's tough to predict what he'll do. Down arrows go next to all three, although I don't expect Vlad and Hunter to go down that much.

Still, I don't see why I should be optimistic about the Angels, even though they won last season.

Seattle Mariners

All winter I read negative stories about the Mariners from Mariners fans. The team was lucky last year, so you need to knock them down a peg before you start with a 2008 projection. The offense gets bad marks. Why are they going to trade Adam Jones? The list goes on.

However, in the spring of 2007 I picked Seattle as my surprise team, and they stayed in contention a good long while. I really don't see why they shouldn't again. They have a solid team. Ichiro is every bit as good as Vlad Guerrero, although their skill set is different. Raul Ibanez posted as many win shares as Torii Hunter in 2007, and his averages were consistent with his career. Why shouldn't he be even with Hunter in 2008? Beltre, while still not living up to his contract, isn't exactly playing poorly. Betancourt and Johjima are good players. At DH, Vidro is at least as good if not better than Garrett Anderson. Until the Angels youngsters prove themselves, Seattle looks like they have better position players than LAnaheim.

Putz outperformed K-Rod in the closer role in 2007. While Rodriguez may play better in 2007, does anyone really expect Putz to do worse? In the rotation, the Mariners jettisoned two terrible pitchers and replaced them with Bedard and Silva. I have no reason to believe these two won't be better than Ramirez and Jeff Weaver.

I just don't see the reasons for pessimism with this team. They're not the class of the AL, but they don't need to be to win this division. It's a good team, and they have the possibility of sending out two aces at the top of the rotation in Bedard and Hernandez. I like their chances a lot.

So my pick for the final order of the 2008 AL West:

1. Seattle Mariners
2. LAnaheim Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Texas Rangers

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Francisco Liriano turned in a fine performance today:

Hoping to break camp with the team 15 months after elbow surgery, Liriano pitched four hitless innings Sunday in Minnesota's 3-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. The left-hander struck out five and walked two in a scoreless outing.

"The first inning was a little bit like his last start," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "The second inning, he started letting it go.

"The ball was moving pretty good. There was a little more progression. The slider had less tilt and more snap to it. He's stretching out fine. He was better out there than the last time. We'll see how he does Friday."

Gardenhire is doing a good job of not getting too excited about this start.

A grounder during drills tears the finger nail off Scott Rolen's right middle finger and broke the bone as well. It's not clear if he'll be ready for opening day.

Chris Capuano's injury turns out to be very serious, and he might need Tommy John surgery again. This will certainly give the youngsters on Milwaukee a chance to prove they belong in the majors.

Willie Randolph announced his starting rotation, at least as far as pitchers 1-4 go:

Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez and John Maine.

That will work for the first two weeks of the season, when Randoph will make up his mind about the fifth slot.

Miguel Cabrera's contract is now being reported as a seven-year, $140 million extension beyond the deal he signed for 2008.

Curtis Ganderson will miss three weeks with a broken finger. That will make it tough for him to break the triples record, but might give Brandon Inge a chance to learn a new position.

The Blue Jays released Reed Johnson. In a five year career, Johnson posted one great season and one decent season. At seasonal age 31, we've probably seen the best from him. He might work as someone's fourth outfielder, however.

Somehow I feel Sidney Ponson's injury can only be good news for the Rangers.

Joe Maddon set the Tampa Bay rotation for the start of the season. My only questions is will Jackson or Hammel be the odd man out when Kazmir returns?

Brian Bannister was impressed to meet Voros McCracken.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their starters posted a 5.02 ERA in 2007, thirteenth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Ian Snell	181	84	4.18
Tom Gorzelanny	166	74	4.01
Matt Morris	180	96	4.80
Zach Duke	160	67	4.50
Paul Maholm	166	85	4.61
Totals	827	406	4.42

On a team with a great offense, this would not be a bad pitching staff. A 4.42 starters ERA is going to win a lot of games if you team is scoring runs at a per game clip of 5.5. With the innings predicted here, the Pirates won't need to go to their sixth and seventh starters too often. While there's no truly great starter on the team, there's no truly bad one either.

There is some reason to believe the youngsters might improve. Snell if the oldest of the four at 26. There's room for maturation and experience to make these players better. While it won't be a great staff, it shouldn't be the reason the Pirates play poorly in 2008.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals
• Philadelphia Phillies

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

Giants Cove looks at the upside and downside of claiming Jose Castillo. One one hand, he "improves our chances of acquiring the number 1 pick in 2009." On the other, he "brings the Giants one step closer to the 1962 mets."

Kevin Youkilis like Matsuzaka better than Kobe.

Last night, I ate Matsuzaka beef for dinner. It's actually better than Kobe beef. It's the best beef you can have. I guess Matsuzaka is a city or a region in Japan. No, the beef is not named after Dice-K! But it was very tasty.

Baseball Hot Corner discusses the balance the Yankees need to achieve between keeping prospects and trading them away. New York did make those kinds of deals during the Cashman era, the most memorable for me being the Ricky Ledee trade. They trade Ledee, Zach Day and Jake Westbrook for Dave Justice. Looking back, it was probably a bad trade. That deal, however, filled an important need for the Yankees in 2000. Ledee never became a regular, Day had a couple of good seasons, the Yankees would have needed to wait four years for Westbrook to be valuable. Sometimes winning now is more important than winning in the future, however, and Justice provided a boost in 2000, the last year the Yankees won the World Series.

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The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. With one week to go in March, 130 readers donated $2810. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that over 32,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. There have been a few pledges at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 130 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink. A new premium today is The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, donated by author J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics. The first four readers donating $75 or more receive a copy of this fantastic book.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

The Detroit Tigers lock in their trade prize for the next eight years.

Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers reached a preliminary agreement Saturday on an eight-year, $153.3 million contract extension, a source close to Cabrera told ESPNdeportes.com on condition of anonymity.

The All-Star third baseman will undergo a physical on Monday to complete the deal, the source said.

Wow. What a great deal. I would bet Miguel would get well over $20 million per year if he went the free agent route next year. We'll see what the final deal looks like Monday.

Hat tip, Bless You Boys.

My daughter Melinda and the Longmeadow HS Symphony Orchestra are performing at Carnegie Hall. We're off to New York for the festival.

We can only hope Hu plays third whenever Vin Scully does a game.

Freddy Sanchez's shoulder is acting up:

Second baseman Freddy Sanchez felt pain Friday in his surgically repaired right shoulder, a major setback that may force him to begin a second consecutive season on the Pittsburgh Pirates' disabled list.

Sanchez didn't make any throws while playing six innings of a 5-1 exhibition loss to Cincinnati, only the second time he has appeared defensively this spring. The pain occurred when he threw between innings and during pregame warmups.

"I'm very concerned now. I was hoping after the first day [in the field Wednesday] that this day would be easier, and I'd be able to work through it a little better. But it kind of seemed like it was worse," Sanchez said. "It's got me concerned."

Sanchez only missed 15 games last year, but his averages were all off 30 to 40 points. Most of his OBA and slugging percentage comes from his batting average, so if he doesn't hit .300, he may not be that much help to the team.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Philadelphia Phillies. Their starters posted a 4.91 ERA in 2007, twelfth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Cole Hamels	165	68	3.71
Brett Myers	94	43	4.12
Jamie Moyer	181	97	4.82
Adam Eaton	147	89	5.45
Kyle Kendrick	121	53	3.94
Totals	708	350	4.45

Brett Myers should pitch more than 94 innings given that he's in the rotation, which would likely lower the Phillies starters' ERA even more. One key to the Phillies success will be Kyle Kendrick. Can he keep performing at that level if the Phillies add on another thirty innings, and if he keeps his strikeout rate that low. The defense behind Kendrick was good in 2007, but the team only turned four more outs than expected. That indicates the balls in play against Kyle weren't that difficult to field in the first place.

My guess is that Adam Eaton is a stop gap until the Phillies find someone good. They'll give him a chance to earn his $8 million, but if he pitches anything like he did in 2007, they shouldn't have too much trouble finding a replacement. With their offense, if they can keep the starter's ERA around 4.50, they should win quite a few ball games.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles
• Kansas City Royals

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

Deadspin reports that someone is auctioning a nude picture of Willie Mays from 1962. I want to know what's in the needle? B-12?

John Smoltz developed a knot in his shoulder:

Wednesday side session. It's the same area that he injured when he slipped making a warmup pitch on May 29 at Milwaukee, but Smoltz said this isn't anywhere near the severity of that injury.

He pitched after that injury, but ended up going on the disabled list in July when the inflammation wouldn't subside without an injection and rest.

The soreness is not in the shoulder that would indicate rotator-cuff or labrum problems, the type that most commonly require surgery.

"So many people the last few years have just been waiting to say, 'This is it,'" Smoltz said, referring to those who've anticipated a career-threatening injury to the man who's had four elbow surgeries.

"I will let everyone know when it's it. That's not a problem."

My latest column at SportingNews.com examines the effect of young, inexperienced pitchers (YIP) on a starting rotation. It also gives me a good excuse to link this video:

Any resemblence to Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain is purely coincidental.

I've been playing with trying to map player relationships by the number of seasons they spent together on a team. I've come up with some interesting graphs, and the PNG viewer that comes with the version of pylab I'm using let's one drill down deep into dense data. Unfortunately, I can't find a program like that for a web browser. If anyone knows a plugin that allows you to view png files like that in a browser, let me know.

In the mean time, here are the players who were teammates for five seasons or more on the Yankees during the Joe Torre era. The closer they are to one another, the longer they were teammates. Click on the graph for a larger image.

As you can see, right at the center is the quartet of Williams, Jeter, Posada and Rivera. The group to the lower left represents the champions of the late 1990s. The group at the top represents the late free agent additions, and the group to the lower right the transition between the two. I'll be playing with these more as I find better ways of displaying the data.

The Washington Nationals released John Patterson. They'll save $850,000 on his contract. It seems strange to release a starter when the Nationals used thirteen last season. However, Patterson only had one great season in his career, 2005, in which he posted a 3.13 ERA. Take that outlier away, and there's really no reason to continue carrying the oft-injured pitcher.

Sean McAdam reports on the Tokyo Dome:

The foul territory here is immense, which should make the Oakland A's feel right at home. Their Network Associates Coliseum has more foul ground than any American ballpark.

We'll see how many players foul out during the two games.

Brain McNamee passed out in his car and hit a bus head on. Luckily, no one was seriously hurt.

New premium available!

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. Two thirds of the way through March, 119 readers donated $2605. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that over 30,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. Over the last week, a number of pledges came in at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 119 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink. A new premium today is The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, donated by author J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics. The first four readers donating $75 or more receive a copy of this fantastic book.

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Voros McCracken sums up the reaction to the Reds sending down Jay Bruce.

Corey Patterson garnered 3100 at bats in his major league career with an OBA below .300. We know what Corey can do and it's not good. Bruce might turn out to be a bust, but his minor league record indicates there's a good chance he'll be great, and I'd say there's an extremely high probability he'll be better than Corey Patterson. If he posts a .750 OPS he'll be better than Patterson! I wonder if this is the super two move, designed to delay Bruce's free agency by one year. Otherwise, the Reds could lose him after his age 26 season, before they reaped the peak of his career.

The White Sox are just a mess at second base.

J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics kindly donated four copies of The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed to the Baseball Musings pledge drive. The first four readers donating $75 or more will receive this fascinating and unusual study of sabermetrics. You can use one of the donation buttons below. Remember if you donate through Amazon to send me your name!

Bill James returned to writing about his research this year. I just received in the mail, The Bill James Gold Mine 2008. I've been thumbing through it a bit, and it reminds me of the old Baseball Abstracts. The one article I've read through is on rating the most consistent players of all time. It's a typical James thought piece, and the formula he arrives at makes logical sense.

Many years ago at ESPN, a producer complained to me that Rickey Henderson was inconsistent. I asked why, and the producer explained that his batting average was up and down from year to year. I pointed out that his OBA was very consistent, and that's what really mattered. So when Bill published a list of players at the end of the article, I immediately looked up Rickey to find he received an A in consistency.

One of the nice things about the aughties versus the eighties is that we no longer need to wait for spring to read about Bill's research. Bill James Online is an inexpensive pay site where Bill published his latest research. The current article looks at unusual careers. Not surprisingly, Barry Bonds rates as having the most unusual career by a long shot, with Mark McGwire a distant second.

If, like me, you grew up reading Bill's work, you'll love the book and the web site. If you're new to the world of sabermetrics, there's no better writer on the subject. Enjoy the book and the site!

Baseball Notes looks at the production of each team lineup slot in 2007 and comes up with the best combined lineup in the majors. There are some surprises in there as well.

The Baseball Crank analyzes the AL East race using Estimated Win Share Levels (EWSL) and sees the Rays very differently than Nate Silver.

The Dirtbag-O-Meter, predicting the probability of Evan Longoria breaking camp with the Rays, suffered a huge drop yesterday. It's down to 30%, after standing at 80% the previous day. It's quotes from his teammates, who want him on the team but seem to be resigned that he'll start in the minors that caused the big drop. Maybe the Federal Reserve can save the day!

6-4-2 Opines on the plight of the Giants this season as a AAA squad of Cubs beats the San Francisco starting lineup:

It'll be a long year in San Francisco. Bruce Bochy might want some Excedrin.

In an article I researched for SportingNews.com, while spring records don't mean much, teams that play extremely poorly in the exhibition season tend to play poorly during the regular season, too.

Brock for Broglio doesn't like the fact that B.J. Ryan reported soreness:

If Jeremy Accardo is available in your league, stash him. He's probably the most valuable MR without a CL job-which will change if Ryan can't remain healthy. PECOTA likes Accardo projecting a K/9 of 8.0, and a 3.70 era.

Ryan is rushing back from Tommy John surgery. Keep your eye on this.

Update: Added link.

The St. Louis Cardinals are on the verge of reaching a deal with Adam Wainwright:

For several weeks the Cardinals and Wainwright's representative have been discussing the framework of a multiple-year deal, and they continued to negotiate after the team unilaterally renewed his contract for the 2008 season. The guaranteed part of the new contract is four years and expected to be worth around $15 million, and it will buy out Wainwright's arbitration years, through 2011. The deal has an option that would cover the first two years of his free agency, sources said.

Good for Adam and the Cardinals. Like the Pirates, the Cardinals decided who was the best pitcher on their team right now and locked him in to avoid arbitration. If Carpenter can get healthy, the two will make a nice front of the rotation.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. Over nineteen days, 116 readers donated $2475. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that over 29,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. Over a last week, a number of pledges came in at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 116 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

Adding to the Dodgers injury woes at third base, Nomar Garciappra has a broken hand:

Garciaparra had an MRI on Wednesday in Los Angeles that revealed a microfracture. The Dodgers do not consider the injury to be as serious as a complete fracture of a bone, and expect to know more once the 34-year-old is examined Thursday by the team's medical staff in Arizona.

Maybe they can fix it with a nano-cast.

Joe Torre seems to like Blake DeWitt. Of course, Inge and Crede are available. The fact that both are out there may keep the Dodgers from giving up too much to acquire one of them.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Kansas City Royals. Their starters posted a 4.88 ERA in 2007, eleventh in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Kansas City Royals top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Gil Meche	186	87	4.21
Brian Bannister	145	66	4.10
Zack Greinke	100	48	4.32
Kyle Davies	132	85	5.80
Jorge De La Rosa	117	71	5.46
Totals	680	357	4.73

The front of the Royals rotation might actually be okay. Meche improved in 2007, and he's a pitcher who can give the Royals a lot of innings even though he may not produce the best ERA. There's no doubt the sabermetricians are rooting for Bannister to do well. He's demonstrated an understanding of fielding independent pitching stats, for example. Zack Greinke finished strong in 2007, posting a 1.85 ERA over his last seven appearances, all starts. He struck out 8.2 per nine innings while walking 2.6. If he comes anywhere near that ratio in 2008 he'll be the ace of the staff.

I'm willing to give Dayton Moore the benefit of the doubt on Kyle Davies. Moore saw something in Gil Meche, and he has more experience with Davies having worked in Atlanta. If Moore is wrong, however, there's going to be a lot of praying for rain on days the fourth and fifth starters are scheduled to pitch.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds
• Baltimore Orioles

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

The Transaction Guy makes a good case for the Padres 2008 outfield defense hurting the pitching staff this season.

Gondeee of Talking
Chop donated $50 or more and dedicates this post to Mike Hampton
-- may he suddenly find an entire baseball season free of injuries.

David O'Brien notes that Gregor Blanco showed maturity this spring and may make the Braves:

Every once in a while comes a player like Gregor Blanco, who has plenty of physical tools, puts up good numbers annually in competitive Latin American winter leagues, but has something that's keeping him stuck in the minor league system, something vague or unspoken by team officials.

Only when the player is shipped out, or brought up to the majors, do we find out more about what it was that had kept him down.

...

Twice in a week, Cox peeled back a layer and revealed his thinking on Blanco, going so far as to say he used to genuinely dislike watching the undisciplined kid play. The second time Cox talked about him, I made sure to write it down.

This was Sunday at Jupiter, when I asked about Blanco:

"He's improved a lot from the first year," Cox said. "He used to swing from the end of the bat and strike out way too much for a speed guy.

"Now he's choked up. He used to swing from his ass. He's leveled that baby [his swing] out so good. I like him."

And this, "For me, he's really grown up."

Blanco doesn't generate much power outside of the triples. He does however, draw a lot of walks for a .371 career OBA in the minor leagues. He'd be a nice complement to Jeff Francoeur. The Braves may want to hold him back a little on the base stealing, however. He's successful just 68% of the time, right on the edge of break even. If someone can teach him to be as selective stealing as he is at the plate, he would be a very good table setter for Atlanta.

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Voros McCracken levels criticism at Kenny Williams for waiving Juan Uribe. However, we don't know if the waviers can be pulled back yet.

The best name for a fantasy league ever.

The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EDT. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

Feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post or during the show in the TPSRadio chat room and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

In case there was any doubt about where Joba Chamberlain would start the season, Joe Girardi made it official today:

Joe Girardi said just a few minutes ago that RHP Joba Chamberlain would open the season in the bullpen.

He left open the possibility that Chamberlain will move into the rotation later this season. "His future will be as a starter," Girardi said.

Chamberlain will pitch in relief against Toronto tomorrow and again on Saturday. Ian Kennedy will start against the Blue Jays, a sign that he has nailed down the No. 5 starter job.

Girardi did not define Chamberlain's role in the bullpen other than to say that he will be used in the "back end of games."

There will be no Joba Rules. Chamberlain can be used for multiple innings and on consecutive days. "It will be common sense," Girardi said.

Mike Mussina gets a chance to pitch his way out of the rotation. I expect the two will switch positions sooner rather than later.

(I've trashed Mussina a bit this spring. I really like Mike. He's had a great career and should merit Hall of Fame consideration. Watching him the last few seasons, however, he looks like he done. It's nice he's getting the chance to prove he has one more season left, and I certainly hope I'm wrong about this prediction. I'd like to see Mike go out on a high note.)

Here's the MLB side of the story:

According to the source, in the past, the coaches' compensation has come from the players' portion of the pool. This time around the coaches were eliminated from that pool. Did someone not tell the players? That'll be the interesting question to Sox player reps after the game.

The source said that coaches, and managers as well as the training staff will all be compensated and the final amount is expected to exceed $40,000 per man.

The major league source was miffed that they are being portrayed as the ones who backed out of an agreement.

Update: Here's Youkilis on the agreement.

"The conference call (in October) was tough in and of itself. There were six or seven players on it. In the business world conference calls are not the easiest way. You hear voices and everyone's talking. We definitely knew what we were told. There was added stuff just to get us to go over there. I can't blame one person for the misunderstanding. I think the next time we know going forward that when you have these conference calls, you have to get it in writing. It's the easiest way to do stuff. One thing that will be addressed at players' union meetings now is that you have to put it in writing and be on the same page. We found out today. It's a learning process, we're moving forward and we're going to have a lot of fun over there."

How could it not be put in writing? Someone dropped the ball here, quite possibly the MLBPA. Luckily for all involved it all worked out.

Update: Larry Lucchino is on the game broadcast now, and he says one problem today was that the lawyers for MLB and the MLBPA who negotiated the deal are in China.

The Cape Cod League ran afoul of Major League Baseball:

The annual operating budget for the Cape Cod Baseball League is between $1.5 million and $2 million -- not much more than the yearly salary of a backup infielder in Major League Baseball.

Yet the volunteer-staffed Cape League and the multimillion dollar MLB are locked in a struggle over money in what could be labeled a David vs. Goliath battle, with the Cape League's $100,000 annual grant from MLB hanging in the balance.

According to Cape League sources, the six teams in the 10-team Cape League that share nicknames with major league franchises are facing a choice: Purchase all future uniforms and souvenir merchandise from more expensive MLB-licensed vendors or lose the annual grant.

MLB is also requesting an 11 percent royalty on sales next summer of existing inventory from the six affected Cape League teams. Non-clothing items such as coffee mugs and teddy bears that are not available through MLB vendors could no longer be sold.

I appreciate MLB wanting to protect their copyrights. Sometimes, however, they should start with the velvet glove rather than the iron fist. Otherwise, they piss off people with a national audience. For example, asking for a small royalty from sales and a slow change over to MLB approved merchandise probably would have worked with little resistance.

Along with the near Japan debacle today, it's amazing that the people running MLB grew this organization into a $6 billion business.

Just as Kerry Wood was getting close to being the closer:

Cubs pitcher Kerry Wood has developed back spasms and was scratched from today's pitching assignment. This comes as Wood was declared the team's probable closer.

By the way, do people really declare that someone is probably the closer? Is that like Michael declaring bankruptcy in The Office?

Brian Kamenetzky looks at what the injuries to Lackey and Escobar mean for the AL West.

The Red Sox are taking the field.

Update: The Japan trip is on, and Youkilis will speak about the settlement after the game.

The Red Sox are not taking the field for the game against Toronto. They're sitting on the bench.

Update: I really love this. For a long time, people like Al Bethke have been making a positive case for Bud Selig's legacy. Fortunately, every once in a while Bud reminds us that we dislike him because the organization he runs can be quite dishonest. Kudos to the Red Sox players for bringing that to our attention.

Update: The Red Sox players left the dugout and retreated to the clubhouse.

Update: There seems to be plenty of blame to go around on all sides.

I'm sure Tom Tango is going to catch a little heat for this post, but I understand his point:

Why are MLB teams treating Bonds like the US Women's soccer team treated its star player? Has the totality of the personal experience of Barry Bonds crossed over the murderer, rapist, wife-beater line? Really? I mean, really? That's my argument here: really?

Tom is confusing players with management. If some team plopped Barry Bonds down on the field right now, none of his new teammates would have a problem with that. The problem is that GMs and owners aren't quite as committed to the W as the players. They need to make money, put fans in the seats, and try to win at the same time. Since Barry Bonds spent most of the last two years getting booed in every park except in San Francisco, those GMs might think that paying a high price for a player the fans don't like isn't a good deal. Maybe if Bonds were willing to pay for a low salary, some team would take a flier on him.

The Red Sox players are upset a promised payment to coaches for the Japan trip was withdrawn (It's not clear if this was the team or MLB making the promise.) They've voted not to go unless the coaches get paid:

''When we voted to go to Japan, that was not a unanimous vote,'' said Lowell, "but we did what our team wanted us to do for Major League Baseball. They promised us the moon and the stars and then when we committed, they started pulling back. It's not just the coaches, it's the staff, the trainers, a lot of people are affected by this.

"I'm so super proud of this team, when we put it to a vote it was unanimous, we're all in agreement that we're not going to put up with this.''

I suspect the funds will be available quickly.

Update: The sides are talking. This appears to be a case of Major League Baseball lying.

Schilling said a few things have already been "taken away" by Major League Baseball, according to the pitcher.

"In October when we were on the phone call, they wanted this trip to happen so badly, and now they've fallen by the wayside time and time again. The things we were adamant about at the time we reiterated time and time again, and it was never an issue."

What things?

"Different personal things that were supposed to happen from an accommodations standpoint. Little things that tend to make trips like this easier. It's been more than one thing. Hopefully, it's just miscommunication, and it will be fixed," Schilling said.

A great way to run a business.

Update: There appears to be plenty of blame to go around on both sides.

Via BBTF, John Romano discusses the economics of keeping Longoria in the majors or sending him to the minors to delay his free agency for a year. If he plays the full year in the majors, the Rays might lose him after the 2013 season. If the Rays let him play a month at AAA, then they get an extra year of control, but he'll go to arbitration four times.

I like the solution John offers near the end of the article:

Of course, there is another scenario. The Rays could sign Longoria to a long-term deal right now. They probably won't buy out his free-agent seasons, but they could get some cost certainty during his arbitration seasons and they could keep him happy by giving him a big raise today.

I don't agree that sending Longoria down now doesn't make a difference because the Rays are not going to contend. There's no way of knowing that. This is the best team the Rays have ever put on the field. Too much good luck can happen to propel a team to the playoffs during a season, and good luck is more likely to come about if they put their best players on the field.

I'd take the route the Rockies did with Tulowitzki. Start Longoria in the majors, and if he has a great season, sign him to a long term deal. That makes everyone happy, and give the Rays the best chance to compete in 2008.

Here's review of the environmental technologies used in the new Washington Nationals stadium. They've greatly reduced water and electricity use, as well as cleaning up a polluted area of the city.

Cole Hamels got in his regular season groove Monday:

As he walked off the field toward the clubhouse after the sixth inning, fans along the third-base line treated him to what is believed to be the first standing ovation a Phillies starter has received all spring.

"Today I was able to almost close my eyes and throw it and know exactly where it was going to go," Hamels said about his performance in the Phillies' 4-2 win. "That's good to see. I just need to repeat it when it really counts."

Hamels opened up the game by striking out Tampa Bay second baseman Eliot Johnson. In the third, he struck out shortstop Reid Brignac on a beautiful off-speed pitch, then retired centerfielder Jon Weber and pitcher Matt Garza swinging.

His only mistake came with two outs in the fifth inning, when he threw an 0-2 fastball that top prospect Evan Longoria knocked over the leftfield fence for a solo home run, the Rays' first hit of the game. Hamels then gave up a single to Brignac before getting Weber to fly out to end the inning.

Hamels struck out seven while walking none and cut his ERA for the spring in half. Just another reason not to trust early spring statistics very much.

Longoria's home run should help him make the team, however. If he can hit a hot Hamels, he can probably hit anybody.

I suspect David Forst's comments on Bonds will help the MLBPA's investigation of collusion against Barry Bonds:

Keri: Barry Bonds! Left field is probably the A's weakest position right now, depending on which way you decide to go at the start of the season. He's in the Bay Area already, the A's are a team that prides itself on performance analysis, and Bonds still projects to be a productive hitter. Is there just an industry-wide philosophy that says, "Wink, wink, we're not going to do this"?

Forst: You expect me to answer this on the record? [laughs]

Keri: On the record, off the record, whatever you want to do.

Forst: On the record, this team has committed to young players.

You can read the whole interview at ESPN.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. Over eighteen days, 115 readers donated $2470. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that over 28,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. Over a last week, a number of pledges came in at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 115 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

C. J. Wilson is going to throw the gyroball. I love the whistling pitching aid.

Someone else remembers Brink and Belzer. The show was mostly Brink, with Richard Belzer doing little comedy bits, not often enough. At some point, Richard stopped showing up regularly for the show, and you could tell Brink was pissed off at this. One day, he dedicated a song to Richard and played "Nowhere Man." I believe the show was off the air the next day.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Baltimore Orioles. Their starters posted a 4.86 ERA in 2007, tenth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Baltimore Orioles top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Jeremy Guthrie	139	64	4.14
Daniel Cabrera	177	98	4.98
Adam Loewen	83	42	4.55
Steve Trachsel	155	84	4.88
Matt Albers	102	58	5.12
Totals	656	346	4.75

With the trade of Erik Bedard, the Orioles are left with a rotation without a projected ace. Guthrie took a big step forward in 2007, but he'll need to repeat that season before the projection system gives him the benefit of the doubt. Daniel Cabrera stands as the most frustrating pitcher on the staff. He can be over powering, but his control gets him in trouble. The Orioles are working on his posture, trying to get him to stay tall on the mound rather than slouching. At age 37, it's not clear how many innings Trachsel can eat at this point. He hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2004. All in all, it's shaping up to be a poor season for the Orioles starters, unless Cabrera can pleasantly surprise people.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>
• Cincinnati Reds

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

Jason McAdams is live blogging the Yankees vs. Virginia Tech.

The Dodgertown era is over. I must admit I'm surprised the Dodgers stayed there as long as they did. I know for a while that the facility attracted Brooklyn Dodgers fans, but most of those were probably gone after 30 years.

I wonder how much Florida is worried about competition from Arizona, however. If Cincinnati also makes the move, the two states will be close to evenly splitting Major Leauge teams. I can see Houston and Minnesota moving there in the future, which would give Arizona the edge.

Squawking Baseball posts NL over and unders for team wins. They predict the Mets take the NL East with the best record in the league, while the Cubs, Dodgers and Phillies all make the playoffs. Unlike the AL, the Mets are the only great team in the league, and there will be the usual dogfight for the other playoff spots.

Interestingly, Squawking Baseball picks eleven teams to beat their win projections, meaning the teams that play under should play very badly.

Brian Bocock looks like he'll make the jump from A Ball to the majors as the replacement for Omar Vizquel. He appears to be a defensive wizard:

He sure is making a good impression with his reliable defense.

Bocock has shown he has soft hands, a quick release and poise beyond his years. Whether he can swing the bat with any kind of consistency is what scouts and others are most wondering about.

"He doesn't play ball, he plays with the ball," said former San Francisco manager-turned-special assistant Felipe Alou, who meant it as a compliment about Bocock's defensive timing and good hands.

Offensively, he does not hit well. But his walk totals indicate good strike zone judgement, so at least he does something well. With time, maybe that strike zone judgement turns into more hits. Once he's on base, he also steals at a decent clip. He's probably never going to be a great player, but at least the Giants are willing to use the skills he does possess.

Bob Purkey passed away Sunday. He put in some very good seasons for the Cincinnati Reds, helping them to a World Series appearance in 1961 and following that season with a 23-5 record in 1962. Purkey's strength was his control. He only walked batters once every four innings, but he didn't strike out many more than that. He finished his career with a better than average 3.79 ERA.

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Bob Tufts sends along another piece of literature that indicates HGH doesn't do much for athletes:

Athletes, in particular body builders, reportedly use growth hormone to increase strength and improve muscle definition (5, 17, 76). We found that although growth hormone significantly increased lean body mass and was associated with a near-significant trend toward decreased fat mass, it did not result in gains in biceps and quadriceps strength. How can increases in lean body mass not translate into strength improvements? Because methods for evaluation of lean body mass do not reliably distinguish lean solid tissue from fluid mass (77) and because the included studies evaluated only short-term changes, we suspect that much of the increase in lean body mass from growth hormone is due to fluid retention rather than muscle hypertrophy (77-79). A nonrandomized study in experienced weight lifters supports this view. Yarasheski and colleagues (80) provided high-dose growth hormone to college football players and weight lifters and found that growth hormone did not increase muscle protein synthesis or decrease protein breakdown, suggesting that an increase in muscle mass from growth hormone use in such athletes is unlikely.

This is not new research, but a synthesis of other research brought together in one paper. As the authors note, there are limitations to this method:

Our study reflects the limitations of the included studies. First, our review highlights the lack of published evidence about the physiologic effects of growth hormone among athletic, young adults. Although we reviewed thousands of studies, only 8 studies assessed strength and exercise capacity for growth hormone treatment in a randomized fashion. Thus, our analysis may not have detected small but clinically relevant differences in outcomes and adverse events. Since no studies evaluated growth hormone for periods longer than 3 months, there is no evidence with which to evaluate the long-term use of growth hormone for athletic enhancement.

Still, it makes you wonder if the money being spent on developing an HGH test is just being flushed down the drain.

Evan Grant sums up the race for the Rangers rotation and bullpen slots. It seems the early spring injuries are healing, and Jason Jennings looks strong.

The loss of a fingernail forced A.J. Burnett to develop a new pitch:

"I've talked about it seven out of 10 springs, when I'm not hurt," Burnett smiled. "But it's really opened my eyes this time. I could have put a (fake) nail on a week-and-a-half or two weeks ago if I wanted to, but I really wanted to take this opportunity to get it down and be a four-pitch pitcher instead of a two. I talk to Doc more and more often. Pitching instead of just throwing. Hopefully, I'll keep a positive mind about it."

Burnett's problem has forever been inconsistency. He has a great belief in his fastball and curveball and has managed to get by. However, the Jays and Burnett need far more than for him just to get by. Here's a guy who has a career high of just 12 wins in a season and is in his 10th campaign in the bigs. With an opt-out season looming, he needs far more than he has given any team thus far. Maybe one nail will build him a new home.

The inconsistency mentioned has more to do with ability than injury. Burnett is that rare pitcher with both high strikeout and ground ball rates. A changeup gives him a good pitcher another weapon.

The odds are pointing to Rick Ankiel batting cleanup for the Cardinals (emphasis added):

"I think he can have good at-bats wherever he goes. He's such a special guy," La Russa said, later adding, "You can read between the lines. He's an impact guy. You can hit him in a lot of key spots."

The take represents a modification in La Russa's thinking from earlier in camp. The manager then thought the pitcher turned outfielder too early in his evolution as a major-league hitter to assume a vocal leadership role or to provide protection for Pujols. However, Ankiel's strong spring and third baseman Troy Glaus' better career numbers in the No. 5 spot have intrigued La Russa enough to revisit where Ankiel is placed in the batting order.

Does this make Ankiel Pujols's condom?

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. Through St. Patrick's Day, 106 readers donated $2410. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving better than $20. Google Analytics shows that over 27,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. Over a last week, a number of pledges came in at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 109 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

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The Transaction Guy notes that Francisco Liriano threw at 100% today, but he's still having problems locating his pitches:

Therefore, with less than two weeks of Spring Training left, its still a mystery if Liriano can start right away for the Twins. In 2006, he was absolutely outstanding as a rookie, pitching like an ace. Minnesota still has hopes that he can do that again, and they want to see him on the right track this year, perhaps ready to return to top form in 2009. But, with him having unfortunate visa problems and showing up two weeks late to camp, they may not see enough of him to put him in the rotation right away.

Again, if he can't locate his pitches, than he'll never be the pitcher he once was. But, if he can, than its not unrealistic to think that he could be the Twins ace for years to come.

One thing is for sure, and that is that the Twins shouldn't and probably won't rush him. Even though I think their team is better than many people think, they aren't going to make the playoffs. If he needs a month or two to rehab some more, than they should let him have it.

I agree. In some ways, Liriano needs to learn to pitch all over again. It may just be a month of refining mechanics. Overall, however, I'd say his outing was good news for the Twins.

Bob Costas called Deadspin to clarify his quotes I commented on here. From the Deadspin interview (Deadspin questions in bold):

So you don't think anyone who writes a blog or comments online is a "get-a-life loser?"

Some have inferred that I have this elitist view, and that I think only people who have been somehow "certified" have the right to comment on sports. It shouldn't be confused with somehow being superior. If you opened up anything to large numbers of participants, you'd find some real gems in there. But you'd have a lot of muck to sift through. I do think newspapers' comment boards need to have the same sort of standard they'd have for a letter to an editor. It's possible they just don't have the manpower for that, though. I do think I made a good point [in the Herald story], but it's only part of what I think.

Do you read blogs?

I look at some baseball blogs, Baseball Prospectus and what-not. Sometimes I'll see something funny in The Onion, and I've recently been looking more at your site since your book came out. It's a generational thing, though. I would do well to download music, but that's just not something I do. It's not my natural first impulse. I still love to pick up a newspaper in the morning.

We think the tipoff for people being angry was the "basement" line. Everyone's a little tired of that line.

Yes, well, that might have lapsed a bit into cliche.

Good for Costas. He didn't apologize or deny anything, he just made it clear he's talking about a segment of the audience. What I think Bob doesn't realize is that blogs are a conversation, not the one way flow of information of his youth. Sure, some people don't speak as nicely as others, but I'd rather have their opinions than shut them out. You never know who is going to produce something interesting.

Blogged.com gave Baseball Musings a very high rating. Thanks very much!

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Cincinnati Reds. Their starters posted a 4.86 ERA in 2007, eleventh in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. Since Johnny Cueto does not have a Marcel projection, I used PECOTA instead.

Marcel predictions for the Cincinnati Reds top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Aaron Harang	199	86	3.89
Bronson Arroyo	189	85	4.05
Josh Fogg	158	89	5.07
Matt Belisle	134	72	4.84
Johnny Cueto	130 1/3	70	4.83
Totals	813 1/3	402	4.45

The Reds are a tough rotation to judge right now since they have three young pitchers who may end up at the back of the rotation. Only Cueto makes the top five of the depth chart, but Edison Volquez is pitching just as well this spring, and Homer Bailey remains a top prospect. The good news for the Reds is that they have the innings to get them most of the way through the seasons, and with the young guns in reserve, Cincinnati has the option of jettisoning Fogg and Belisle if they don't perform well.

Reds fans are certainly excited about the youngsters, and as I said this morning, this could end up being the best one through five rotations in the NL.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Houston Astrosli>

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

After today, the Yankees are probably looking forward to seeing Bartolo Colon in the Red Sox rotation.

Tyler Kepner notes the progress of Scott Patterson from independent league starter to consideration for the Yankees bullpen. It's all thanks to a finger injury:

Patterson is here because of his overwhelming success as a relief pitcher, first for the Lancaster Barnstormers of the Atlantic League and the Gateway Grizzlies of the Frontier League. His acumen for the bullpen earned him a spot with the Yankees' Class AA affiliate in 2006, but it would never have happened without a freak injury.

"I stubbed my finger in a door at my host family's house in Lancaster," Patterson said. "They brought me back slowly and said, 'Could you work out of the pen?' It was my first time ever doing that, and I just let it go for an inning. I was up to 90, 91, 92 miles an hour, and I was like, This could be good; let me stay here for a little bit."

He mixes his fastball with a slow curve. Since his last stint with Gateway, he's been a full time reliever. In that time he's struck out 208 batters in 166 1/3 innings while walking 36. That's someone worth a look in the majors, especially if you want to move Chamberlain to the rotation at some point.

Rich Lederer at the Baseball Analysts looks at the relationship between strikeout and groundball rates among starting pitchers. Rich graphs the two rates against each other and groups pitchers by quadrant. What I think is interesting are the outliers on the high side of strikeouts and ground balls. If you take the five pitchers with the highest strikeout rates, you get a rotation of:

• Erik Bedard
• Scott Kazmir
• Johan Santana
• Jake Peavy
• A.J. Burnett

If you do the same for the five highest GB% pitchers:

• Derek Lowe
• Fausto Carmona
• Tim Hudson
• Brandon Webb
• Felix Hernandez

With the exception of Webb, the high K rotation is all aces, while the high ground ball rotation is mostly number two starters.

Jon Lester will start game two for the Red Sox in Japan. It will be Blanton against Matsuzaka in game one, with Harden facing Lester in game two.

The Cub Reporter provides a useful graphic for knowing where you are in the Brian Roberts trade talks.

Squawking Baseball looks at how he'd bet the over/unders for wins by American League teams. I just like the way these numbers rank the teams, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Detroit all tied at 93.5. I also find it interesting that both Tampa Bay and Oakland each come in at 73.5. I'd probably take the over on both of them.

John Thorn pushes back the date of the first organized baseball game.

The current research of the exceptionally accomplished baseball writer and historian John Thorn, as presented this weekend to the annual Nine Conference in Tucson, Arizona, has discovered an earlier organized, recognizable game of baseball as having taken place in November of 1843, also at Elysian Fields, conducted by an entity called the New York Magnolia Ball Club.

That's three years earlier than the famous Knickerbockers game.

Redleg Nation is high on Edinson Volquez. It looks like the Reds will join a number of teams in starting the season with at least two very young pitchers in the rotation. They quote Dusty Baker on Volquez and Cueto:

"You want me to say it or are you going to say," Baker said. "They're pitching like they belong along side (Aaron) Harang and (Bronson) Arroyo in the rotation. They're dealing. They came in ready to pitch. They played Winter Ball so they're ahead, not so much with velocity but with command. That's what you need. They're pounding the strike zone. If you walk people, you have no chance. If you get behind people, you have little chance.

"We need them."

Doesn't Dusty want his pitchers to clog the bases with walks? :-)

All jokes aside, the Reds are looking like a team that can pitch. At some point they'll add Homer Baily as well, and by the end of the season my have the best 1-5 rotation in the National League.

MetsBlog.com, along with Willie Randolph and Ramon Castro really like what they saw from Pedro Martinez yesterday.

Coming into the season, Webb and Haren appeared likely to be the best 1-2 punch in the game, but Santana and Martinez are going to give them a run for their money.

Chien-Ming Wang worked on new pitches yesterday and struck out seven batters in 4 1/3 innings. Still, Wang doesn't like the strikeouts:

He claimed his performance against the Indians won't deter him from using his sinker. "Everything is good," Wang said.

Someone joked that he would start to get more strikeouts, like yesterday.

"No," Wang said. "Ground balls, still. Strikeouts take too many pitches."

I like the idea of Wang increasing his number of strikeouts, but he does have a point about being efficient.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. Halfway through the drive, 103 readers donated $2315. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving over $20. Google Analytics shows that over 26,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. Over a last week, a number of pledges came in at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 109 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Houston Astros. Their starters posted a 4.71 ERA in 2007, tenth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Houston Astros top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Roy Oswalt	187	69	3.32
Wandy Rodriguez	162	88	4.89
Brandon Backe	78	38	4.38
Woody Williams	167	91	4.90
Chris Sampson	112	54	4.34
Totals	706	340	4.33

Once again, the Astros face the problem of a shallow rotation. Oswalt is great, but there's really nothing behind him. The biggest positive for the back four of the rotation is their walk rate. It's predicted to be 3.1 per nine, not bad at all. The rotation, however, is hittable, with Williams and Sampson allowing a number of home runs on top of that.

With the projection for just over 700 innings from this group, the Astros are going to need to depend on other starters as well. With pitchers like Shawn Chacon as backups, 2008 does not look fruitful for the Astros starters.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

Carlos Delgado was hurt in a freak gardening batting accident:

The slugger hit an RBI double in the third inning and later took a lead off third base.

Brady Clark swung and broke his bat, and the jagged barrel sailed down the line and speared Delgado on the outside of his right forearm. Right away, his arm was covered in red streams.

"It was a lot more blood than I wanted to see," Delgado said.

Delgado immediately left the game and exited with a small bandage. He was previously scheduled to be off Monday and expected to be out a couple of days.

Delgado wanted to throw the bat at Mike Piazza, but couldn't locate the former Met. :-)

Mike Lawson sends this article on how the Rangers are using Nolan Ryan to try to bring back the fans:

There are pockets of doubting fans, hesitant to air their feelings publicly, who feel that Ryan's ascendancy is nothing more than a default-driven publicity stunt casting Ryan as a living, breathing mascot. But for the most part, everyone from Zonk (you can almost hear his drumbeat getting louder) to Charley Pride (you can almost hear the echoes from his annual spring training clubhouse performance) is buying what Nolan is selling. Even if the team remains the pathetic, penny-pinching Rangers. Even if it recycles the "You Could Use Some Baseball" slogan. Even if this is another season of prospects being groomed, veterans traded to contenders for even more prospects and a finish closer to fourth place than first.

Regardless, Ryan's touch is essential to pull the Rangers out of their spiral toward utter irrelevance. It was 10 seasons ago that Texas won 95 games and drew almost 3 million fans. But in this millennium, it has finished above .500 only once and last year attracted only 2.3 million. Nothing will make the boss grasp for the past like losing 23 percent of his customers.

It's a very good article about the positives and negatives of the team, and what Ryan will face as president as he tries to fix three decades of poor play in Texas.

The Pirates signed Ian Snell to a three-year contract with an option for two more years. I really like what this deal says about the new regime in Pittsburgh.

• They recognize that Snell is their best player, and were willing to sign him long term.
• The contract is not so long term that it will cost them a lot of money if Ian ends up with a career ending injury.

This is just another reason to be optimistic Pirates management will move this team in the right direction.

A few days ago, Peter Schmuck gave up on Daniel Cabrera. Today, Cabrera tried to prove that pessimism premature:

Cabrera allowed two runs and five hits -- three coming in his final inning. He walked one and struck out five, including four in a row, beginning with Lastings Milledge, to end the first inning.

"He was ahead or even in the count all the time, using all his pitches," catcher Ramon Hernandez said. "That's the key. You get ahead, you get quick swings. You get quick swings, you get quick innings. He did that today."

His posture on the mound was better:

Cabrera, listed at 6 foot 9, has been trying to stand taller on the mound and throw downhill. His delivery has been one of the projects bestowed upon new pitching coach Rick Kranitz.

"We've been working to try to keep it the same way," Cabrera said.

"He never slouched, he never hunched over," Trembley said. "He was tall on the mound and his tempo was very good. He got the ball and he threw it. There wasn't a lot of time between pitches and he was good out of the stretch. When he stays tall and throws downhill and doesn't fall off to the side, when he doesn't bend over, he's real good. He needs to do it again."

He should walk around with a book on his head between starts.

Dave O'Leary writes in regard to this article on Shelly Duncan in New York Newsday:

I assume this was intended to paint him in a positive light. As a Met fan, I went into the piece liking him, his style, dirty play from last week aside. This gives me reason to reconsider:

"While playing for Class A Greensboro in late 2002, Duncan broke his hand and was told he could go home for the year. Instead, he surprised Chris, who was playing in the Class A Midwest League.

After a late night, the Duncan brothers were awakened by kids playing "Marco Polo" in the pool at Chris' apartment/hotel complex. When the kids didn't quiet down at Chris' urging, Shelley called out to them, using an expletive in the process, which brought the hotel manager to their door to investigate. She was upset, and told the kids to keep playing - and to be louder.

The Duncans still were trying to sleep, so the 6-5, 225-pound Shelley decided to show Chris how to handle it. He did a giant cannonball into the pool, then joined in the game of Marco Polo, splashing water on the kids' parents and frightening the kids. The hotel manager didn't find Shelley very funny and called the police, but when they showed up, they could only laugh at his antics.

In recalling the story, Duncan grinned, but that, he insisted, was a low-level prank for him. He could come up with a book full of humorous stories from his and Chris' childhoods."

That anecdote about the hotel is questionable. As one who travels often, I've been awoken by late night partiers far more often than kids in a pool. The cursing and apparent physical intimidation lead me to believe he's a typical meathead with the jock sense of entitlement. Funny, the piece is intended to frame him well, this is how he wanted to come off? If Duncan thinks that story portrays him well he is badly mistaken. Keep in mind this was his version of events, not the family's, not the hotel manager's. Hard nosed blue collar players are easy to root for, this guy is apparently the exception to the rule.

The Projo SoxBlog reports that Josh Beckett will not make the trip to Japan:

"He will not go to Japan, which I think we're using common sense," said Francona. "We're trying to do things in the correct order, and he completely understands."

Beckett played catch with pitching coach John Farrell back in Fort Myers this morning and Francona said the pitcher felt no pain. Beckett played catch at 60 feet and then progressed to 75 on flat ground with "no concerns."

"He did fine," said Francona this morning from Bradenton where the Red Sox will face the Pirates. "He had no concerns and that's what we were shooting for. He'll ramp it up a little more (Monday)."

The question now is who going to get the second start in Japan?

Cecil Cooper believes Miguel Cabrera can win the triple crown:

Cooper made that clear last week, when he assessed how Miguel Cabrera would do in the American League as he joins the Tigers from the Marlins.

"He looks like he's made a conscious effort to do some things physically," Cooper said. "He's a specimen now.

"To do that with the talent that he (has) offensively, I'll tell you: He's going to wreak some havoc in that league. And now he's got some older guys around him who know what to do. He's going to be dangerous. He might hit .340.

"If nobody has a monster year with home runs, he could be a Triple Crown threat, because he drives in those runs. Not only does he hit homers, but he drives in runs with base hits. He's a clutch hitter."

No one won the triple crown in the last forty seasons. It's even difficult to win it on your team. For example, last year Alex Rodriguez hit .314, led the league in home runs and RBI, but finished third on his team in batting average.

The Tigers did have a team triple crown winner last year in Magglio Ordonez, albeit with a low home run total of 28. It's not hard to imagine, with that lineup, Polanco posting the best batting average, Ordonez driving in the most runs, and Cabrera hitting the most homers.

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

Baseball Time in Arlington discusses the dilemma the Rangers face at catcher:

Another strong campaign from Teagarden in 2008, combined with a lack of opportunity (or results, as the unfortunate by-product of inconsistent playing time) for Saltalamacchia at the big league level, could quite feasibly knock the latter down a peg on the organizational catching depth chart, and perhaps even trigger trade talks to ship Jarrod out of town forever.

And boy, would that be disappointing to see. For as much as I like what Teagarden brings to the table, Saltalamacchia's gorgeous, fluid swing and seemingly limitless offensive potential as a catcher have fully captured my imagination. Make no mistake about it, I want to see Jarrod establish himself as the catcher of the future here in Texas.

And when playoff baseball finally makes its glorious, long-awaited return to the Temple, I want to see Jarrod behind the plate, snapping cool, collected throws back to his pitcher, taking control of the game through not just his game-changing bat, but also his refined glovework, throwing arm and battery communication skills.

Watching a player like Gerald Laird - a decent stopgap, but hardly somebody that figures into the Rangers' long-term plans - potentially even dent Saltalamacchia's chances of becoming what I think he can become in Texas is, by far, the most distressing development to come out of Surprise this spring as far as I'm concerned.

Neither Laird nor Saltalamacchia is hitting for a high average this spring, but both are making their hits count. Laird hit three home runs so far with his seven hits, while Jarrod hit for the cycle with his four hits. What's clear is that at age 28, Laird isn't going to be a great hitter. However, because he is at a performance peak age, the Rangers could get a very good year out of him. Saltalamacchia, at 23, still has time to develop, but I'd rather see him in the majors than the minors at this point. It seems to me the right solution is a catching platoon, with Laird playing against lefties and Jarrod against righties. That should give the youngster between 120 and 130 games behind the plate, which is plenty for any catcher.

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

After playing to a 3-3 tie Saturday, the Padres defeat the Dodgers 6-3 on Sunday to win the the only Major League series played in China. They even played "Hells Bells" when Hoffman came into pitch.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. AFter two weeks, 106 readers donated $2279. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving over $20. Google Analytics shows that over 25,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. Over a last week, a number of pledges came in at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 106 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

This isn't the only blog that cares about curling. :-)

Looks like age caught up with Juan Gonzalez:

The St. Louis Cardinals were awaiting results of an MRI on Juan Gonzalez's strained abdomen on Saturday, an injury that has marred his comeback attempt.

The test was done on Friday and was being evaluated by a specialist, team spokesman Brian Bartow said.

The 38-year-old Gonzalez, who has only one at-bat the last three years, missed his fifth straight game and did not make the trip Saturday for a game against the Mets. He had been listed as day-to-day two days earlier. Manager Tony La Russa said there had been no improvement.

"I do not think he was better this morning, and he's been resting and being treated," La Russa said after the Cardinals' 10-3 victory. "So that's not a good sign."

I'd be very surprised if Gonzalez is productive at all this season.

John Fay notes that Johnny Cueto keeps getting better. He's having a great spring training, plus:

My personal theory on Cueto? The more pressure, the better he gets. His ERA went down as he went from A to AA to AAA last year. Cueto's next start is Monday against the Tigers. It's on FSN. Dial it up the kid is fun to watch.

The move from A to AA was very impressive last year. His strikeout rate went up and his walk rate went down. All told in the minors he's striking out better than nine per nine innings, while walking one about every four innings. I just think he's simply a pitcher who is ready for the majors.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Detroit Tigers. Their starters posted a 4.68 ERA in 2007, ninth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Detroit Tigers top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Justin Verlander	179	75	3.77
Jeremy Bondernam	169	84	4.47
Dontrelle Willis	185	87	4.23
Kenny Rogers	111	52	4.22
Nate Robertson	170	84	4.45
Totals	814	382	4.22

The Tigers rotation projects to be very consistent one through five. If indeed, all five starters post ERAs under 4.50, the Tigers will win lots of games. Their lineup is likely to score over 5.5 runs per game. The rotation also projects to a high number of innings, meaning they'll need little help from sixth and seventh starters barring injuries.

One thing I like about this staff is that project to allow just 1.0 HR per nine innings. While Verlander and Bonderman are the only two with excellent strikeout and walk numbers, all five do a good job of keeping the ball in the park.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees
Colorado Rockies

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Via 6-4-2, John Lackey won't be around on opening day.

Angels ace John Lackey has been diagnosed with a strained right triceps after an examination on Friday by Dr. Lewis Yocum, team orthopedist. He will be shut down without baseball activities for three to four weeks, at which time he'll be re-evaluated. Lackey, the reigning American League ERA champion and an All-Star for the first time in 2007, pitched 1 2/3 innings on Monday and said he felt fine afterward. But the elbow became sore the following day, and a bullpen session on Wednesday did not go well, he said.

This means the Angels start the season without their top two starters from 2007. While this is good news for Joe Saunders, it's even better news for the Seattle Mariners. This has to give them some hope for winning the division.

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B.J. Ryan tested his new elbow against batters on Friday and struck out three.

"It was good, you know, finally getting out there, anxious and nervous and not really knowing what to expect.

"We didn't hold anything back," he added, meaning he and catcher Rod Barajas. "I threw what he called. I told him, 'I don't know you and you don't know me. Let's just kind of feel our way through this.'"

And the Blue Jays, despite this very rosy start, will certainly be very careful feeling their way along from this point on.

If Ryan feels good today - and there'll be some soreness - he'll likely get two days off, then throw again Monday. The Jays have already said he's not only not going back-to-back down here, but isn't going to be allowed to do that in April, either.

He's come back very quickly from Tommy John surgery. I hope he's just a fast healer and not overdoing it.

Rays of Light notes that Edwin Jackson is pitching himself out of the Rays rotation. I was quite surprised that when the Rays acquired Matt Garza that Jackson wasn't immediately the odd man out. Although Howell and Sonnanstine posted higher ERAs, their strikeout and walk numbers indicated they were better pitchers. I'm glad that's coming through so far in spring training.

Mark Prior continues his recovery from surgery:

"I am able to get on top of the ball," said the right-hander, who won't be available to the Padres before May or June. "I am able to throw the ball down and away."

The surgeon's work is enabling Prior to throw with proper form, to repeat the same release point that he had before injuries led to compensation issues and degraded his silky delivery.

He said he is able to get the extension and angle needed to hit the low-outside portion of the strike zone, or just wide of it. Last spring training, Prior said, he wasn't able to smoothly get that done. "I'd come around the ball," he said, tilting his right hand inward.

He's no where near returning yet, but his progress remains steady.

The Matsuzaka's are the proud parents of a new baby boy. Congratulations to the couple on the birth of their second child!

This, of course, allows Dice-K to travel to Japan with the Red Sox and start the opener in his home country. That will certainly be an exciting moment for him and his fellow citizens.

Will street vendors be allowed outside the new Washington park?

Twenty-three licensed hot dog vendors and souvenir peddlers were fixtures in front of RFK Stadium, where the Nationals played while awaiting the construction of the new stadium.

But they worry that the Nationals' concerns about competition for revenue is the reason the city Department of Consumer and Regulatory Affairs has not given them a definitive answer about vending at the new stadium.

"We have not had any resolution of vendors being at the stadium at all," said Brenda Sayles, 60, who sold souvenirs at RFK.

Of course they should be allowed. The competition might do something to keep food prices down in the stadium.

Street vendors, however, can be anti-competition as well. There was a woman who used to sell pretzels from a cart outside the Science Center at Harvard, Pretzels from Heaven. They were good pretzels. She'd also show up at Fenway Park before games, at the Brookline Ave. end of Landsdowne Street. No one cared. Then one day, she put a steamer in her cart and started selling Hebrew National hot dogs for $2, half the price of the other street vendors. They were better and cheaper. Not long after that, the other vendors started complaining about her licensing, and she was gone.

Jim Leyland batted Ivan Rodriguez in the leadoff spot, hoping to improve the catcher's selectivity:

"I think it pumps him (Rodriguez) up a little bit, (besides) being a good thing for our team," Leyland said. "You've got a Hall of Famer like that who went to the eighth hole without complaining. That's not the easiest thing to do, so I think it (batting leadoff at times) is good for him psychologically.

"If he continues to lay off bad balls, there's a chance I'll lead him off a lot against left-handers."

Ivan was never that selective a hitter. However, Granderson was really terrible against lefties in 2007. While Rodriguez hit .302 vs. lefties in 2007, he did not draw one walk. Still, I have no problem platooning batting order slots, I just think Leyland could find someone better than Pudge to put at the top of the order.

The first game between Major League teams in China ended in a 3-3 tie.

I find this unbelievable. The Dodgers are telling Jason Schmidt to pitch through his pain.

Pain is part of our lives for a reason. Pain tells us when something is wrong. Pain's message is stop what you are doing, you're hurt. A bruise here or there is one thing, but pain throwing a baseball can only lead to more pain.

Schmidtty, I'll always remember that home run you hit for us.

I believe Jon's right. If this continues, that will be Dodgers fans only memory of Jason Schmidt.

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So Bob Costas doesn't like bloggers either? That's too bad. When Bob was stuck working the "B" game for NBC on Saturdays, I thought it was a shame. Costas was smooth, knew his game and worked well with his analyst. I looked forward to him becoming the voice of baseball on the network. Then, CBS came in and offered a billion dollars for exclusive rights, and before Bob could take the chair held previously by Curt Gowdy and Vin Scully, Sean McDonough got the job.

Costas seemed to buy into the idea that he was the best play-by-play man not covering baseball. You could almost see his head swell during the 1990s as he hosted sports events for NBC. Like any job, however, you have to keep working at to remain good, and when Bob returned to the booth when NBC briefly bought baseball broadcasting rights, he was more schtick than insight.

So I'm not surprised he doesn't like bloggers, people who might publicly challenge the lofty throne Costas sits on, hosting the Olympics from his hermetically sealed room. He should have been great, but now he's just a bitter old man.

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. AFter two weeks, 102 readers donated $2189. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving over $20. Google Analytics shows that over 24,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. Over a last week, a number of pledges came in at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 102 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

Wily Mo Pena underwent an MRI and will miss at least four weeks:

The results from Wily Mo Pena's MRI are back, and they reveal what many in the organization suspected yesterday. It is a Grade 2 strain of the left oblique. A club spokesman -- delivering the report from the medical staff -- said it was a "significant tear of the muscle," and it will "very possibly take four weeks" to recover. For now, he'll have a "very low level of activity" to allow healing to take place.

The problem with this muscle is that it's so central to the swing. Every time he moves, he's going to feel it. It's likely he can even feel a twinge when he breathes.

More encouraging new on Rich Harden:

Oakland starting pitcher Rich Harden laughed off a question about nearly throwing a no-hitter through five innings Friday against the Chicago White Sox.

The Athletics' right-hander allowed just a run-scoring single by Alexei Ramirez with two outs in the fifth inning during Oakland's 8-1 victory.

Harden struck out five and walked four in his five innings to improve his ERA to 5.73.

"(The no-hitter) doesn't matter," Harden said, smiling. "During the season, it is a different story. I felt better out there. I still need to work on some stuff and work on my location. Overall I felt better with my command. I am progressing."

Just the fact that he's throwing without pain is a good sign for the Athletics.

River Ave. Blues presents Yankees ticket prices adjusted for inflation:

A funny thing happens on the way to 2008. It now appears as though ticket prices for the Yankees remained steady, in 2008 dollars, for nearly thirty seasons. In 1967, it cost $3.50 to purchase a Yankee field box seat. That's $22.18 in 2008 dollars. Twenty four years later, in 1994, it cost $17 to purchase the same ticket or $24.28 in 2008 dollars. In 1994, $3.50 from 1967 would get you $15.53. Ticket prices, in other words, were tracking inflation.

The spike -- and we seem to still be in the middle of it -- occurred following the 1994 season when ticket prices went through the roof. All of a sudden, the Yankees were good, the Yankees were popular, and the Yankees were very, very expensive. In 14 years, Yankee ticket prices have increased by a factor of 10 from a 2008 value of $24.28 in 1994 to $250 in 2008. That's crazy.

There was also a lot of wealth created in the New York area during that time. As long as the place keeps selling out, expect the prices to keep rising.

In the mail, Working at the Ballpark: The Fascinating Lives of Baseball People from Peanut Vendors and Broadcasters to Players and Managers by Tom Jones. Tom sits down with a wide variety of people, from the owner of the Giants to a ticket hustler from Fenway. All the stories are told in the subject's own voice, and Tom does a great job bringing out what they love about their jobs. A nice addition to your baseball library.

Major League Baseball handed down suspensions today stemming from the Yankees-Rays brawl. Peter Abraham has the press release. I like the wording:

Shelley Duncan of the Yankees has been suspended for three games and fined an undisclosed amount for his violent and reckless actions, which incited the bench-clearing incident.

Good. They're not sugar coating this. The Yankees lose Duncan and Cabrera for three games, and the Rays lose Jonny Gomes. With appeals, the players likely will be able to pick the time of their suspension, so New York doesn't have to lose both players at once.

Ivy Chat lays into Soriano for his comments on batting second. Alfonso didn't feel comfortable batting with someone on base.

Always great to have a 30 home run guy who hates having men on base. Just think of all the RBI opportunities he can avoid!

Since 2000, which represents all but a few PA of his career, Soriano is ever so slightly worse with a man on first than with the bases empty. So the idea that a man on first bothers him doesn't really hold water. However, I believe most batters do better with a man on first. In the National League in 2007, a man on first added sixteen points to a player's batting average, twelve points to a player's on base average and eighteen points to his slugging percentage. This is usually attributed to opening up the field because the first baseman holds the runner while the shortstop and second baseman play closer to second to try for a double play. Soriano does not appear to be taking advantage of the bigger openings.

Congratulations to Bleed Cubbie Blue on their successful Project 3000 Fundraiser.

Two of my colleagues just got back from a technology meeting, and one of the database vendors passed out these. I'm not sure this is the use they intended, but now you can approach fantasy baseball in a whole new way! If this gets really big, maybe The Roches can sing the National Anthem at the All-Star Game.

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Bud Selig a problem with his private plane. The plane landed safely, and no one was hurt luckily.

I do find it a bit amusing that Selig flies out of Mitchell Airport. I also wonder if people are going to start complaining about Bud wasting fuel by flying an energy hog private jet instead of a commercial airliner.

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Scott Olsen threw without pain yesterday and may be back to starting in early April.

I wonder if the competition caused by all the injuries to the Marlins starters will be good for the team down the road? The injuries create opportunities for the minor league pitchers as they compete for a spot in the rotation. If that competition is turned into a learning experience, maybe Florida comes out of this with a deeper staff that they originally envisioned.

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Chris de Luca notes the White Sox are running a quiet camp this spring:

Something always penetrates the tranquility of Sox camp. It's as much a spring training tradition as someone complaining about Arizona's high sky. This year, nothing.

"Yeah, it has been a pretty smooth camp," captain Paul Konerko said. "From a player's standpoint, since I've been a White Sox, this has definitely been the best-run camp."

Nothing but baseball. No contract squabbles or old scores to settle. Even after manager Ozzie Guillen, on the eve of camp, promised to revert to his old way -- meaning loud and obnoxious -- the place is downright boring. You half expect spa music to be piped in over the sound system.

Is this any way to run a Sox camp?

"Most of the time with the camps, they are crazy because of something I say or it's a contract thing," Guillen said. "Now we tried to do it this way, to create that feeling in the clubhouse with the players and the media, to avoid controversy. Because when that kind of stuff happens, you are creating something you shouldn't be creating.

Wow. Maturity from Ozzie Guillen. I guess a lousy season will do that to you.

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The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. So far, 98 readers donated $2139. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving over $20. Google Analytics shows that over 22,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. Yesterday, a number of pledges came in at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 98 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

Mark Lamping resigns as president of the Cardinals to manage the building of the new football stadium for the Giants and Jets.

After a career as prominent sports-marketing executive at Anheuser-Busch, Lamping was hired as Cardinals president on Sept. 1, 1994.

It was a troubling time for the franchise. The 1994 Major League Baseball season was shut down because of a labor disagreement, and the Cardinals were slumping on the field.

Lamping played a substantial role in the Cardinals' reversal of fortune. In 1995, Lamping hired Walt Jocketty as general manager, and Jocketty soon hired Tony La Russa as manager. That partnership was responsible for seven trips to the postseason over a 12-year stretch, and the prizes included the 2004 National League pennant and the 2006 World Series title.

Bill DeWitt III, son of the Cardinals owner, takes over the job.

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Baseball Historians of the Baseball Book Blog donated $50 or more and dedicates this post to his son Devin.

The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Colorado Rockies. Their starters posted a 4.58 ERA in 2007, ninth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Colorado Rockies top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Jeff Francis	188	91	4.36
Aaron Cook	164	76	4.17
Ubaldo Jimenez	100	47	4.23
Franklin Morales	80	35	3.94
Kip Wells	140	84	5.40
Totals	672	333	4.46

A 4.46 ERA for the Rockies starters wouldn't be bad given their ball park. If Franklin Morales can post that ERA over 160 innings, it will even be better. Morales's 462 strikeouts and 24 home runs in 428 minor league innings bodes well for a successful major league career.

Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be much depth to the rotation this year, with Kip Wells, Ramon Ortiz and Mark Redman going at the back of the pack.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Yankees

Correction: Fixed the league.

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Mike Mussina threw five perfect innings today. Maybe he will last past April. Of course, it was against the Pirates.

Kyle Lohse finally gets a job.

Finally, Lohse's long nightmare is over because, as speculated yesterday, he's signed a one-year contract with the pitching thin Cardinals. There's no quotes from him about this yet, but if I had to guess it would be something along the lines of, "Sweet, Jesus! Finally! Boras is so fricking fired for putting me through this!"

I can see Lohse doing well for the Cardinals. His walk total was good in 2007, and he'll being playing in a much friendlier park for pitchers. If the Cardinals hitters can give him some run support, he might end up at .500.

My latest column at SportingNews.com explores the relationship between spring training and regular season records.

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Billy Crystal struck out in his only at bat as a Yankees player.

Doctors diagnosed Rick Sutcliffe with colon cancer:

Sutcliffe, 51, was diagnosed after a routine test during a physical revealed that he has a treatable and curable form of colon cancer. Sutcliffe will undergo chemotherapy and surgery over the next few months and said he hopes to make a healthy comeback later this year.

"I deeply appreciate the support of the ESPN family and my family and friends around the country," Sutcliffe said in a statement.

I worked a bit with Sutcliffe on Baseball Tonight in 1999 and hope he makes a full and complete recovery.

Fernando Rodney will likely miss opening day, and Carlos Beltran says he can't play nine innings yet.

Correction: Fixed the Beltran link.

Notsellingjeans at Athletics Nation wonders who will be the first player the Athletics sign to a $100 million contract. His bet is Justin Upton.

*If we look at some of the most successful marquee free agent signings of the past 15 years - Barry Bonds' first deal with the Giants, Vlad's deal with the Angels, and even, I would argue, A-Rod's first deal with the Rangers (which would have been even better if the team hadn't outbid themselves by $50MM), they have a common theme - position players on the good side of age 28. That's part of why the list I made above focuses on position players, and especially youth.

*Using that criterion, my personal endorsement for the A's first $100MM splurge is...Justin Upton, assuming he reaches free agency in 2014. In fact, this could double that investment, requiring something like 9 years and $200 million. Yes, I am advocating that for the A's, and no, I'm not nuts.

We'll find out in six years!

Joe Girardi and Shelly Duncan talked this morning:

Joe Girardi said yesterday that if he saw a replay that showed what Shelley Duncan did was dirty, he would have a meeting with him.

Girardi and Duncan met this morning.

Duncan said later he didn't want to talk about the meeting. Let's see, 2 + 2 ...

Duncan watched the replay and said that what he did wasn't what he meant to do, making him the anti-Pee Wee Herman.

Nick Cafardo reporters that something is going on with Doug Mirabelli.

Update: The Red Sox released Mirabelli, but I'm not sure why. It looks like they're just trying to save money:

Wakefield endorsed Cash last season when Cash caught him and at that point it gave the Red Sox the thought that Cash could be a cheaper way to address the backup catcher role. Brown has caught minor league knuckleballer Charlie Zink.

Assistant GM Jed Hoyer was assigned this winter by Theo Epstein to find the team a backup catcher. But after a long and thorough search, Mirabelli was brought back at a salary of $550,000 which also included a $275,000 roster bonus, a $150,000 conditioning bonus and the possibility to earn $1.25 million in performance bonuses based mostly on games. Mirabelli, a member of the Red Sox since 2001, was hitting .273 with one RBI in 11 spring at-bats, while Cash is hitting .250 in 16 at-bats. Mirabelli was briefly dealt to San Diego in 2006 but reacquired when catcher Josh Bard struggled catching Wakefield's knuckleball.

Since no one else is likely to pick up Doug, we may see him back at Fenway before the year is out.

Patrick Sullivan looks at what American League teams did on and after 3-0 counts in 2007. Unless you're the Mariners, it's not a bad pitch to hit. It's also a very good pitch to take.

Scott Kazmir is ready to pitch again.

The Padres visited the Great Wall of China:

Padres manager Bud Black described the goodwill trip as a chance for MLB to "sow a few seeds," saying the games themselves were of little importance. Both teams have brought just a handful of starters, leaving most of their top pitchers in the United States.

"The popularity of basketball here just went off the charts when Yao Ming got to the NBA," Black said. "That's what baseball is looking for."

Traipsing to the apex of the twisting wall was a test of fitness. Becky Moores, wife of Padres team owner John Moores, made it to the highest rampart. After arriving several days ago in the polluted air of Beijing, she welcomed the clean air of the countryside.

"Now I can breathe, my chest is open," she said.

Betsy Gonzalez, the wife of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, managed to get three-quarters up the wall wearing 3-inch heels.

"I'm always in high heels so I'm used to it," she said.

Replied her husband: "It would be like me going three times as far as I went. That's incredible to climb all the way up there in high heels."

Here's a picture of my daughter on the Great Wall from 2006. She didn't attempt the climb in heels. :-)

The funniest thing I read this morning:

Young Yankees pitcher Ross Ohlendorf has "a lot of natural cow sense." That's good to hear. After all, how many promising pitching prospects have we gotten excited about over the years, only to see them fall short at the Major League level due to a tragic lack of cow sense? Never again!

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The injury to Sergio Mitre brings back bad memories for FishStripes:

Dr. Andrews had Mitre undergo an MRI to looked for ligament damage and found none. So rest was prescribed. I hate to bring up bad subjects but this keeps tracking exactly as to what happened to Josh Johnson.

Johnson was initially diagnosed as a forearm strain by Dr. Andrews who recommended rest. After the rest period he made four starts and then ended up having Tommy John surgery.

Not saying this will happen again, but it does have an eerie feeling about it.

The Marlins depth chart for starting pitching goes eight deep, but four of them (Mitre, Olsen, Sanchez and Johnson) are injured. That doesn't leave a lot of good options for Florida.

Clay Buchholz's private life just got a little too public:

Buchholz's dad confirmed to WZLX yesterday that his boy has spent some quality time with the 23-year-old centerfold.

"I know he's met her, gone out with her, but I don't know if you consider that dating . . . but hey, a boy could do worse," Skip Buchholz told 'ZLX's Karlson & McKenzie yesterday.

Apparently Erica also spilled the beans - somewhat - to Howard Stern the other morning, telling the satellite shock jock that she was sleeping with someone on the Sox.

"It doesn't surprsie me any," said Clay's dad. "Last year up in Boston he was dating a Victoria's Secret model, so he's moving up the ladder . . . . I mean, he's got pretty good taste."

I'm not sure Penthouse models are a step up from Victoria's Secret models. I don't remember good taste and Penthouse going together. How embarrassing, however, is it for your dad to be talking about your sex life? I know my dad would be really proud if I were dating someone like this:

And during a visit to the Stern show earlier this week, Erica stripped down with fellow Penthouse Pet Bree Olson and made out on the Stern sofa.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. Eleven days into the drive, the $2000 barrier falls. So far, 94 readers donated $2102. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving over $20. Google Analytics shows that over 18,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. Yesterday, a number of pledges came in at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 94 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

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Peter Schmuck gives up on Daniel Cabrera:

I admit it. I was mesmerized by the 6-foot-9 frame and the looming presence on the mound. Every time I looked at Cabrera, I saw a Randy Johnson in the rough. Every time I heard somebody say he would never amount to anything more than a fourth-class starter on a fourth-place team, I chuckled arrogantly to myself and waited for the moment when I could say, "I told you so."

Then I went to Jupiter, Fla., on Tuesday and watched him trip over his own feet -- both literally and figuratively -- on the way to an on-field and off-field performance that pretty much convinced me that he doesn't get it and probably never will.

Now, I feel like I've been seduced and abandoned.

The guy would be lights out if the light ever went on, but how much longer can the Orioles wait for that to happen?

In his major league career, Cabrera walked 388 batters in 661 1/3 innings. That's not a small sample. Why should we expect him to develop control now?

If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

Cobra Brigade breaks down what's wrong with Lou Piniella's decision to bat Soriano second. The idea is to get Soriano to run less until his legs heal:

The fact that Soriano's legs are bothering him doesn't bother me as much as the fact that A) he's going to be hitting in a spot in the lineup where he's supposed to be able to take pitches and move runners over, B) that Soriano is going to be a double play threat anytime Theriot is on base because his legs are bad, which leads me to.....C) this means that Ryan Theriot is going to be leading off this season...he of the .326 ob % and fading stamina last season. The silver lining in all of this, if there is one, is that as long as Soriano hits 35+ homers and drives in 100+ runs, his contract still sort of makes sense in the grand scheme of things. Besides that, this really makes no sense at all.

It seems to me that the solution to moving Soriano out of the lead-off spot is to move Kosuke Fukudome to the second spot and move Soriano to fifth in the lineup....or move Derrek Lee to the second spot, have Aramis Ramirez hit third, Fukudome fourth and Soriano fifth. That way you can get the most out of Soriano's power, which seems to be his last offensive asset, while not allowing his patented streakiness to crush any rallies the Cubs might have at the top of the order.

Soriano's strengths and weaknesses make him a better fifth hitter than a leadoff man, but he doesn't seem to bat as well in that slot. Teams are forced to bat him leadoff, where he doesn't belong, or suffer poor performance as Texas did.

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The Indians are taking good care of Juan Lara:

The Indians have released injured reliever Juan Lara and re-signed him to a minor league deal that will pay him an estimated $100,000. By releasing Lara, they cleared a spot on the 40-man roster.

They will continue to pay Lara's medical expenses as he recovers from a near fatal off-season accident in the Dominican Republic. Lara is undergoing occupational rehabilitation at Lutheran Hospital in Cleveland.

The Indians always seem to do the right thing by their players, one reason they are able to keep their stars around.

Thanks to Bryan Belknap for the link.

My Baseball Bias posts a photo of Duncan coming in with his spikes thigh high.

The Padres are in China, and Gaslamp Ball provides links to relevant stories on the trip.

My daughter visited China two years ago on a school trip. The two interesting things she noticed were:

• Soldiers were everywhere.
• The Chinese went out of their way to explain they had no classes, yet a stratification of society was clearly evident walking around the cities where beggars abound.

She really loved the trip and the family that hosted her stay, but she also understood the reality of China. I wonder if the players and press on this trip are going to be insulated from that?

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River Ave. Blues is enjoying the fact that the Red Sox suddenly aren't too happy with the Japan trip.

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I hope these two teams got it out of their systems:

The benches cleared after New York's Shelley Duncan slid into Rays second baseman Akinonori Iwamura with the spikes raised after singling off third baseman Evan Longoria's glove and trying to stretch the hit into a double.

Duncan was immediately tossed. Tampa Bay's Jonny Gomes was ejected, too, after racing in from right field and barreling into Duncan as other players poured onto the field. No punches appeared to have been thrown as order was restored.

Yankee third base coach Bobby Meacham and hitting coach Kevin Long also were ejected by the umpiring crew, which met with Girardi and Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon before the game.

New York left-hander Heath Phillips was ejected during the first inning after one of his pitches appeared to graze Longoria's shirt. The Rays had already scored two runs and three hits in the inning.

If they haven't it's going to be a very eventful 18 games between the clubs this season.

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Rocco Baldelli appears to be finished with baseball for the moment.

Rocco Baldelli will be sidelined indefinitely - but is not retiring - because of what he said are "some type of metabolic and/or mitochondrial abnormalities,'' a condition that leaves him feeling extremely fatigued after just a brief workout.

"When I say "fatigued" my body is literally spent after a very short amount of time out on the field which makes it extremely frustrating and difficult, but it's kind of a reality right now,'' he said during a 13-minute session with reporters before Wednesday's game. "I feel like I've done a serious workout after a very short period of time, and it's a very odd feeling. ... I try not to be too dramatic when I explain what's going on, but it's not easy when you're out on the field for a very short period of time and you're done, and you're not really worth anything else out there. That's a tough thing to handle because you wonder why. You wonder why this is how your body feels.''

Mitochondira are one of my favorite organelles (the ribosomes are pretty cool, too). Not only are they the power plant of the cells, but they have their own DNA that one can use to trace female ancestry. The problem is, when they don't work right, you can't power your muscles. For Rocco's sake, I hope this is something doctors can correct.

However, this does give the Rays another reason to sign Barry Bonds.

Hat tip, Rays Anatomy.

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Art Martone donated $50 or more to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive and dedicates this post to the Projo SoxBlog.

The Blue Jays decision on their fifth starter became a little easier today, but not in a good way:

The Blue Jays' first physical setback of spring training was a big one. Casey Janssen, leading candidate for the No, 5 spot in the rotation, is done for the season.

The 26-year-old right-hander, such a key component to Toronto's terrific bullpen a year ago, was diagnosed with a torn labrum in his right shoulder and faces surgery either next Tuesday or Wednesday. He's expected to begin throwing in four months and be 100 per cent for next spring training.

That moves Jesse Litsch into the leading role for the last spot in the rotation. Depth charts already had Jesse ahead of Casey, so it's not that big of a surprise. Despite a 6.75 ERA so far in the spring, Litsch struck out nine while walking just two in eight innings of work. If those ratios hold up during the regular season he'll be more than all right.

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The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EDT. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

Feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post or during the show in the TPSRadio chat room and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

Lone Star ball notes the Rangers rotation is set. He also shows the injured Brandon McCarthy has team spirit:

"He doesn't pitch scared, and he knows what he's doing," Millwood said of Mendoza. "It's nice to see a young guy step in there and look like he belongs. I wouldn't want to be the guy waiting on him to mess up because I don't think he will."

Said McCarthy, ostensibly the guy who would be waiting on Mendoza: "I'm fully expecting when he gets to the big leagues that he's not going back. I hope he makes it tougher than hell for me to get my spot back."

The Rangers starters were soft last year. McCarthy understands the importance of getting better pitchers into the rotation.

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Ichiro Suzuki is using his 0 for 21 slump as a learning experience:

"To tell you the truth, some of this is kind of fun," Ichiro said, speaking through translator Ken Barron. "To be in a situation this early in spring training, and have this bit of an intense environment, it's something I couldn't experience before.

"Basically, it's a situation where I need to battle within myself mentally. That's something I haven't experienced this time of year, and I get to experience that right now. That is something that is great for me."

So rejoice, Mariners fans. Ichiro, as usual, is in full control of the situation. The more outs, the merrier. All hail the weak grounder! Power to the pop fly!

"Once I get a hit, it might actually make me sad this experience isn't going to be there anymore," he said. "At the same time, I understand I need results."

Seattle fans will be happy if he goes 0 for 40 in spring training and those twelve missing hits show up in the regular season.

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With Eric Chavez out, Jack Hannahan is making an impression on the Athletics:

After his Aug. 14 acquisition, Hannahan hit .278 with three homers, 21 RBIs and a .369 on-base percentage in 41 games. In an early September series against his pals from Detroit, he went 4-for-10 - with a homer in the opener and game-ending bloop single over Inge in the 10th inning of the finale.

In Tuesday's 6-4 exhibition victory over the Cubs, he made a diving stop to his left, robbing Derrek Lee of a hit and starting an inning-ending double play. He also went 1-for-3 to keep his average at .333 through 10 games.

"A very good fit for us," manager Bob Geren said.

Hannahan posted a .363 OBA in his long minor league career. At 28, he has no pop, but gets on base well. Chavez hasn't done the latter is two of his last three seasons. We might be looking at a more permanent replacement here.

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An injury to Joel Pineiro sends Cardinals management scrambling to find another pitcher:

Four days after Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak downplayed the club's search for additional starting pitching, the club reacted Tuesday to persistent questions about Joel Pineiro's right shoulder by inquiring about free agent Kyle Lohse.

With opening day starter Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper the only certainties in a suspect rotation, manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan said they're open to help from outside.

La Russa described the team as in a scramble to construct a five-man turn early in the day, then admitted after the game, "I don't think we have to worry about having too much pitching."

This is going to be an ugly season for the Cardinals, even if Albert Pujols's elbow holds up.

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Here's another reason spring training stats are tough to take seriously. Dave Righetti points out the positives in Barry Zito's last outing:

He could be criticized for experimenting at this stage of his career. On the other hand, baseball is about adjustments. Zito has lost speed off his fastball, making command that much more important. He believes that by shortening his windup and not bringing his hands over his head, he can spot his pitches better.

Pitching coach Dave Righetti liked what he saw Monday, even if Zito allowed eight runs (five earned) in 32/3 innings.

"I thought he looked good," Righetti said Tuesday. "I liked the plane of his ball. I thought he was fine, especially in the windup. Unfortunately, he had to pitch in the stretch a bunch.

"He just felt like it was cleaner, like it was easier for his rhythm. He's got all the movement in his hands that's making him a little bit late in terms of delivering the pitch that he wanted, and I agree, so he went out yesterday and worked on it for the first time."

So Zito was experimenting, and it's possible the experiment turns out well. He's making the adjustment pitchers his age need to make, a little less power and a little more control.

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The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. Eleven days into the drive, the $2000 barrier falls. So far, 88 readers donated $2040. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

The average donor is giving over $20. Google Analytics shows that over 17,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings so far during March. These readers could help support the site at a much lower level and make a huge difference. Yesterday, a number of pledges came in at $5 or less. Ten percent of readers donating at that level would double the dollar amount donated so far. Don't let these 88 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

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The Bronx Block invities you to name the group of young Yankees pitchers:

On that note, we here at The Bronx Block are offering a Yankees DVD set and Yankees tickets for the best suggestion from a reader. The winner will be able to choose between the MLB Vintage World Series Films - New York Yankees: 17 Championship Seasons 1943-2000 (2000) set and the The New York Yankees Fall Classic Collector's Edition 1996-2001 set. Furthermore, the winning entry will gain a bit of fame, as The Bronx Block will create a logo and place the name on t-shirts available for purchase here at the website. Finally, the winner will receive two Tier Reserved upper deck tickets to the Yankees-Blue Jays game on April 3rd.

Name away!

Great video at Yankees Chick.

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The Marlins are going to start the season with a four man rotation:

Because of some quirks in the early regular season, the Florida Marlins are leaning towards utilizing a 4-man rotation for the short-term; because of of-days on April 3 and 8, the team will probably not need a fifth starter until April 13. Which could be a good thing for the Marlins as 2 of their projected 4 starters are nursing minor injuries; the 2 pitchers in question, Scott Olsen and Sergio Mitre, may not be ready for the beginning of the 2008 season as Olsen is recovering from left shoulder tendinitis and Mitre is struggling with tightness in his right forearm muscle.

I actually think this is a good strategy whenever a team has a day off. The Red Sox, Yankees and other teams with youngsters they'd like to limit should especially think about this. Since both teams are likely to have two youngsters in the rotation, skipping one of them every time there's a day off is a safe way to limit their innings. The veterans in the rotation can handle pitching the whole year on four days rest.

Mike Greenwell's wife is a nurse, and she wouldn't let him take steroids:

"The truth?" he said. "My wife's a nurse and basically told me she'd kill me if she caught me doing it. Really. Reality.

"She was a nurse. I looked into it [steroids]. I studied it. I know a lot about steroids, to be honest with you. Because I was very, very tempted as a player to do it and I think there's many, many players out there that were tempted to do it. Probably if I didn't have my wife I would have done it to try to perform at that level. Another little slight reason I retired when I retired. I just didn't feel like it was quite even anymore."

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the New York Yankees. Their starters posted a 4.57 ERA in 2007, eighth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. I'm actually going against the depth chart here, as they have Joba Chamberlain ahead of Ian Kennedy in the rotation, and it really looks like Joba will be in the bullpen.

Marcel predictions for the New York Yankees top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Andy Pettitte	188	85	4.07
Chien-Ming Wang	181	77	3.83
Phil Hughes	96	46	4.31
Mike Mussina	155	79	4.59
Ian Kennedy	69	30	3.91
Totals	689	317	4.14

The Yankees finishing eighth in starters ERA in 2007 is impressive given their rough start to the season. It seemed in April every starter they sent to the mound was injured or got bombed.

This is a very tough rotation to call for 2008. Pettitte's and Wang's number look about right, although I suspect both will top 200 innings this year. The other three are question marks, however. Mike Mussina's strikeout rate fell off the table last year, and in three of the last four seasons posted ERAs over 4.00. The three young pitchers hold lots of promise, but there's a huge difference between promise and production. My guess is that they find four good starters among these five and Chamberlain. I'd also bet the odd man out eventually is Mussina.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox
• Milwaukee Brewers

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Starting with Felix Pie of the Cubs, It hasn't been a good week for parts where the sun don't shine:

The other day, Lackey covered Kaz Matsui's "ongoing problem with hemorrhoids," which, on the scale of unnecessary disclosures, ranks somewhere up there with the details of a soon-to-be-former New York governor's paid-sex preferences. The hemorrhoids were bad enough. So let's take it a step further! Today the Houston Chronicle (via BBTF) informs that Matsui is expected to miss four or five days with a condition known as "anal fissure."

Having ocassionally suffered from hemorrhoids, I feel Kaz's pain. However, there's a great Emily Latella skit in here:

Emily: What's all this about Kaz Matusi having Amy Fisher? Who hasn't had Amy Fisher?

Anchor: No, that's anal fissure, not Amy Fisher.

Emily: Oh, that's a very different Buttafuco. Never mind.

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Peter Abraham gives Baseball Musings a nice plug in this AOL interview. Thanks, Peter!

He also likes what he's seeing from Jason Giambi:

FH: Who's surprised you the most so far on the Yankees so far? What about some of the other teams you've seen?

PA: I've been stunned at how good Jason Giambi looks in the field. He worked hard over the winter to get in shape and it really shows. If he stays healthy, he's going to have a big season. As for other teams, I'm impressed with what Tampa Bay is doing. They could finish in third place this season if Toronto falters.

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The LoHud Mets Blog asks:

Will anybody miss Barry Bonds this year?

I will. Barry generates news and stats, two of the things I enjoying writing about. As much as I don't like him personally, I'd love to see him have one last shot at baseball redemption. To do that, he needs to play for a team on the edge of contention and take them to the top. Unfortunately, that doesn't leave many options for Bonds. Given that he most likely needs to DH, I'd limit his teams to:

• Tampa Bay Rays
• Minnesota Twins
• Seattle Mariners
• Oakland Athletics

The Angels, Blue Jays, Indians, Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and White Sox don't need him, since they all have designated hitters. The Orioles, Royals and Rangers aren't close to competing yet. My guess is that the Mariners would give him the best shot at getting to a World Series, but they would need to eat Vidro's contract. Playing for Tampa Bay would be a great story. He'd bring in the crowds, he'd improve the offense, and if he can lead the team past Boston and New York into the playoffs, he'd end his career on a positive note. Maybe he should make Tampa a deal they can't refuse. Play for a $1 million base salary, with incentives up to $15 million if the make the playoffs, the LCS, the World Series and win the trophy. Someone needs to think outside the box when it comes to hiring Bonds.

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Redleg Nation uses Dusty Baker's evaluation of Homer Bailey to point out Baker's strength as a manager, handling people.

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Ian Kennedy wins comparisons with Greg Maddux as the thinking pitcher:

Because he can hit the corners, Kennedy himself takes pride in being able to throw the fastball on any count, taking exception to the idea that he is strictly a finesse pitcher.

"I still strike people out with my fastball," he said emphatically. "You can't pitch backwards all the time. Sometimes you want to give the hitter what he wants, you just have to hit your location.

"And sometimes you know what they're looking for, and you give them something that looks like it ... only it's different."

Spoken like a thinking man's pitcher, all right. And perhaps more than No.3 in the young-gun pecking order when all is said and done.

It's just another demonstration that pitching is more about fooling batters than overpowering batters.

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Only 45% of players who receive shoulder or elbow surgery return to their pre-injury level of play:

Over a four-season period, Cohen and colleagues studied 44 players from one professional baseball club (major league, AAA, AA and A) who underwent 50 shoulder and elbow operations by a variety of surgeons. There were 27 shoulder surgeries performed on 26 players and 23 elbow surgeries performed on 21 players. A key finding of the study was that players returning after elbow surgery were more likely to comeback to the same or higher playing level than those who had shoulder surgery. Thirty-five of the players were pitchers with 43 percent returning to the same or higher playing level.

The researchers found that overall, only 20 of the 44 players (45 percent) returned to the same or higher level of professional baseball. For ballplayers at the major league, AAA, or AA level, the study found only 4 of 22 (18 percent) were able to return to the same or higher level.

"As a surgeon, obviously these statistics were disappointing and somewhat lower than what we would like them to be," said Cohen. "This may give us cause, however, to look at how we evaluate and treat these injuries to the throwing arm. Our goal is to get these elite athletes back to their premier pre-injury health. This is important both to the player who is making a living off his athletic ability and the organization that wants its players in top shape. We may need to examine if there is a way to 'fine-tune' these procedures to customize them for the demands of a professional baseball player."

Hat tip, BBTF. Maybe Kerry Wood was right to try to rehabilitate without surgery.

Who would have thought the most positive pitching story to come out of the Phillies camp this spring would be Kris Benson:

When the Phillies signed him to a minor league deal in mid-February, they cautioned that he was throwing at only 60 to 70 percent of his velocity, and there could yet be peaks and valleys in his recovery. Thus far, Benson has progressed linearly, showing improvement every time he steps on the mound.

But Benson's recovery isn't complete. In an appearance in a minor league game Saturday, his peak velocity was 88 mph. Consistently, he was a notch or two below that. Benson said yesterday he believes the extra power he needs for games will develop naturally over the next few weeks. But the fact remains, he is not there yet.

Kendrick, Eaton and Hamels all posted ERAs over 10.00 so far. None of this is really meaningful as no one has tossed that many innings. Benson, however, may give Philadelphia a decent option come the middle of the season when the starters start needing time off for injuries.

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The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues. For the ten days of the drive, 81 readers donated $1954. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

Won't you join these readers? There is a large potential donor base reading this site. Google Analytics shows that over 15,500 unique visitors read Baseball Musings during the first ten days of March. If each of these readers left $1 the donation, the dollar total would be around seven times higher. Won't you help increase the percentage of readers donating? Don't let these 81 readers support the site by themselves.

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

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There's an old saying about trading a player too early rather than too late:

From what I saw on the tube this weekend, Crede appears healthy, if just a little rusty. His swing mechanics look fine; the hands are high, there's no wasted motion. But it's not showing up in the results. He had a particularly terrible game against the Giants Saturday, which included an 0-3 on a number of hittable pitches and at least one 'Crede would have gotten it' moment. He couldn't have laid an egg against a more inopportune opponent.

The Giants are probably happy they waited on the deal.

Randy Johnson pitched pain free Monday night. Now he just needs to polish his game.

The Big Unit gave up three runs and four hits, including a three-run homer by Chris Iannetta, in 1 1-3 innings Monday during Arizona's 10-9 victory over the NL champion Colorado Rockies. Johnson walked one and struck out one.

"Minus the results today, there was a lot of positive things," he said. "But as competitive as I am, I'm still disappointed that I would pitch like that."

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Anthony Witrado likes what he's seen from Manny Parra this spring:

Parra pitched four scoreless innings (his longest outing of the spring), allowing only a double to Aramis Ramirez. Parra struck out two, walked no one and induced seven ground ball outs.

That gives Parra nine innings of one run, one walk ball this spring.

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I can save Major League Baseball $14 million a year. That's roughly $450,000 per team per year, enough to pay for one first year player. How do I accomplish this feat? I'll take the job of commissioner for a mere $1 million per year.

MLB, I await your call.

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Felix Pie is out with testicular torsion.

Pie said he's not sure what caused the injury - essentially a twisting of the testicle severe enough to affect blood flow -- which more often occurs with late-adolescent boys.

Off hand, I suspect this injury will arouse a mass debate.

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Purple Row likes the way the Rockies bullpen is shaping up.

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Flotsam Media explains why Dusty Baker hates the walk. :-)

In training, I recently told young Joey Votto to give into his aggression. I wanted him to feel the power of swinging the bat, and letting the fear of a called third strike take control. Feed your anger, I told him. Feel the power course through your veins.

Incredibly, the young man disagreed with me, saying that he preferred an approach based on patience. I find his lack of faith disturbing.

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Josh Beckett's back is worse today.

Red Sox ace Josh Beckett, who spent the morning undergoing treatment for a strained lower back muscle, was considerably more pessimistic about his condition today than he was yesterday. He said he had difficulty sleeping last night because of the back, and said he did not know when he'll be able to resume baseball activity.

A trip to Japan for Josh continues to look iffy.

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Chris Mazzone notes that Mike Pelfrey tipped his pitches last year and writes:

...it always amazes me when stories like this come out and it seems like the team the pitcher plays for is the last to find out...

Recognizing that a pitcher is tipping pitches is a pattern recognition problem. The batters the pitcher faces are (subconsciously) trying to develop a recognizer that will tell them what Pelfrey is throwing. They may not even be aware they are developing such a recognizer, or what clues they are storing and discarding. Suddenly, it dawns on a batter (or a bench coach) that the thing they are picking up is a wide glove, and then everyone knows the sign.

The home team, especially the catcher, has no need for such a pattern recognizer, because they know which pitch is coming. If teams want to detect tips early, they should assign someone behind home plate who doesn't know the signs and pitch selection of the subject to predict each pitch before it's thrown. If the source is getting a high number right, then a team can investigate what might be tipping off the scout.

It's the sort of problem a computer might be very good at solving. Given photographic examples of a pitcher, and the type of pitch that was thrown as training data, differences in the model should indicate where a pitcher is tipping his pitches. This seems like a good problem for my former colleagues to solve.

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The Orioles might have found a gem in the rule 5 draft:

It's a mystery pitch that needs a catchy name. Too bad "Gyroball" is taken. The Orioles will have to come up with another way to describe what Rule 5 pick Randor Bierd is throwing.

Bierd has a "swing-and-miss" pitch that's almost as difficult to describe as it is to hit. Manager Dave Trembley once called it a cross between a splitter and a changeup. He later referred to it as a combination changeup and forkball, a relative of the splitter.

Bierd showed progress last year in the minors. His catcher, Guillermo Quiroz, describes the pitch as a Johan Santana type changeup. Bierd is someone to keep your eye on this season.

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Denard Span is taking his way to the top; of the lineup, that is:

Span walked four times in five plate appearances, living up to his own credo as a leadoff hitter: Just get on base.

"I'll take this day every day if I could," Span said after the Twins' 6-4 loss to the New York Yankees at Hammond Stadium. "Four walks? I'll take 0 for 1 every day."

Span is competing with Carlos Gomez and Jason Pridie in the most-watched battle of the Twins' training camp. He's off to a slow start at the plate, hitting .214, but Gomez is at .190 and Pridie .238, so Span hopes his ability to help the offense even without base hits draws a favorable contrast to the less-patient Gomez.

"I don't think they're looking for anybody to go up there and hit 20 home runs. They need somebody to score 100 runs and stay on base and put pressure on the defense and the pitcher," said Span, the Twins' 2002 first-round draft pick. "I just want to get on base."

Span posted a .348 OBA in his minor league career, nothing to write home about. With no pop, maybe he figured out the best way to make the majors is to be an OBA machine.

He would also be the first major leaguer with the first name Denard.

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The Texas Rangers held ball girl tryouts, and they were quite rigourous:

Major leaguers will be hitting the balls they'll be fielding, so they can't be afraid to sacrifice their bodies for the sport.

During the Sunday tryouts the players bounded and lunged across the emerald grass, stopping line drives. Then, with determined faces, they each whizzed the ball back across the field.

"To catch and throw well, that's a must," said Rangers announcer Chuck Morgan, who helped supervise the tryouts. "And you've got to pay attention to whether the ball's fair or foul."

The right candidate must be able to think quickly off the field as well.

The team is expanding the ball girl program, now in its second year, to include a more visible marketing role, including making special appearances at promotional events.

Steve Howe helped a young Mariano Rivera:

While reporting Sunday's story about Mariano Rivera and his willingness to mentor his teammates, I asked him if anyone had helped him out when he was a young Yankee. Rivera surprised me with the first name he mentioned: Steve Howe.

Howe basically put himself up as an example of how not to deal with the temptations of big league stardom.

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The Mets are healing, as both Carlos Beltran and Delgado are expected to play today.

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Milwaukee Brewers. Their starters posted a 4.55 ERA in 2007, eighth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Milwaukee Brewers top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Ben Sheets	141	62	3.96
Jeff Suppan	182	89	4.40
David Bush	172	90	4.71
Yovani Gallardo	110	47	3.85
Manny Parra	46	21	4.11
Totals	651	309	4.27

The success of the Brewers rotation in 2008 depends on the pitchers with low innings projections staying in the rotation the whole year. Suppan and Bush are capable of giving the team lots of innings, but their ERAs leave something to be desired. Sheets and Gallardo should be one and two in this rotation, but Yovani is returning from knee surgery and Sheets's injury history makes him doubtful for 200 innings. Capuano and Vargas may end up getting a lot of starters innings, and both posted ERAs over 5.00 in 2007.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves
• Chicago White Sox

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive continues as we start the second work week of March. For the nine days of the drive, 77 readers donated $1864. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

Won't you join these readers? There is a large potential donor base reading this site. Google Analytics shows that over 14,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings during the first nine days of March. If each of these readers left $1 the donation, the dollar total would be around seven times higher. Won't you help increase the percentage of readers donating ?

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

Maybe Dusty Baker should hire MIckey Hatcher?

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Adam Eaton diagnosis is a herniated disk. At 30 years old, his back is also arthritic. Unfortunately for Phillies fans, Adam feels he can be ready for opening day. If he pitched another 1/3 of an inning in 2007, he would have posted the highest ERA in the majors by 1/2 a run.

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Joe Posnanski takes on the idea that the new stats are too complicated:

But here's why this whole "It's so confusing" argument amuses me so much: People will tell you that the new stats are too convoluted or manufactured ... and yet there are NO stats more convoluted and manufactured than the basic statistics that baseball has been built around for more than 100 years.

Some of this should be obvious. Batting average? It's ridiculous. Preposterous. Imagine that no one had ever come up with batting average before ... and then someone on a blog came up with with this idea:

Blogger: I have come up with a new statistic. It involves balls put in play. I call it batting average.
Establishment: Great! How's it work?
B: See, what we'll do is, we'll take the number of hits that the batter has and divide it by the number of at-bats that he has in order to determine how often he gets a hit.
E: That sounds like on-base percentage. What's the difference?
B: Well, it's all in what you call "at-bats" For one thing, we don't count walks.
E: What do you mean you don't count walks?
B: They don't count. We take plate appearances and subtract walks. They never happened.
E: How can a walk never happen?
B: It just doesn't.
E: Aren't walks good things? Like in Little League, we always say "Walk's as good as a hit."
B: I hate walks. They're gone. So let's say a guy comes to the plate 12 times, and he gets four hits and walks twice ...
E: Right ... that's a .500 on-base percentage.
B: Exactly, but if you just subtract the walks, you will see that he has a .400 batting average.
E: Um, OK.
B: But there are other things. If you hit a fly ball, and someone tags up and scores a run, that does not count as an at-bat.
E: Why not?
B: Because you are sacrificing yourself for the betterment of the team? I call it a sacrifice fly. Get it?
E: Well, what are you sacrificing if it doesn't even count against your stats?
B: You just are, OK?
E: What if you hit a ground ball and the runner scores.
B: How's that?
E: Let's say the infield's back and a guy hits a ground ball to get the run in. How do you score that?
B: No, that's not a sacrifice fly.
E Why not? Doesn't that accomplish the same thing?
B: It just isn't. Come on, pay attention. What's it called. Sacrifice FLY? Hello! He didn't hit a fly ball.
E: It just seems to me ...
B: Sacrifice bunts also do not count as at-bats. And when you get hit by a pitch ... doesn't count.
E You don't get any statistical notice for getting hit by a pitch?
B: Like it never happened.
E: I'm afraid to ask this: What happens if you reach on an error.
B: That's the beauty of this system. According to my new batting average, you're out.
E: But you're not really out.
B: I know. Isn't it great?
E: Why does this have to be so complicated?
B: It's batting average! It will take over the world!

I like to explain this be asking a person to define an at bat as what it is, rather than what it isn't. You can't do it. Joe takes on ERA as well. It's a typical great Posnanski post.

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Sidney Ponson signed with Texas, mostly because Brandon McCarthy will miss the opening of the season.

The importance of that depth now looks to become magnified twofold through the first couple weeks of the 2008 season, as Daniels also noted on Sunday morning that right-hander Brandon McCarthy will likely be out anywhere from four to six weeks.

McCarthy is scheduled to fly back to Dallas today for the beginning stages of treatment to heal a nasty case of inflammation in his right forearm, which will almost certainly land the 24-year-old hurler on the 15-day disabled list to begin the year. Appears that my completely baseless prediction of a potential mid-to-late April return for Brandon was, in fact, right on target.

McCarthy has a chance to become an ace for Texas. With luck, this injury won't set him back too much.

Josh Beckett's back spasms don't appear to be serious, but the Red Sox may not take him to Japan:

There is a chance Beckett will not pitch on Opening Day.

"We're not there yet," Francona said before today's spring meeting with the Los Angeles Dodgers when asked whether Beckett could be bumped from the Japan trip. "I will say this: That's not the end all and be all. I said to (Beckett), 'Just get better.' That's what we're focused on."

My daughter went to Japan in February, and it's grueling trip. I can see where Boston doesn't want to subject Beckett to fourteen hours in a plane seat with little room to move and stretch.

Matsuzaka might not make the trip either, due to the impending birth of his second child. While there was speculation that Beckett and Daisuke could start the first four games of the season, the Red Sox may end up sending Wakefield and Lester or Buchholz in the first two games. With the Athletics weakened by trades, the Red Sox had a good chance at a four game sweep to open the season. With Harden looking healthy, however, Boston might be lucky to come away with a split.

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Bob Tufts sends along this article on performance enhancing drugs in academia:

But others insist that the ethics are not so clear, and that academic performance is different in important ways from baseball, or cycling.

"I think the analogy with sports doping is really misleading, because in sports it's all about competition, only about who's the best runner or home run hitter," said Martha Farah, director of the Center for Cognitive Neuroscience at the University of Pennsylvania. "In academics, whether you're a student or a researcher, there is an element of competition, but it's secondary. The main purpose is to try to learn things, to get experience, to write papers, to do experiments. So in that case if you can do it better because you've got some drug on board, that would on the face of things seem like a plus."

Baloney. Competition for entrance to colleges is fierce. When I applied to Harvard in 1978, one in ten applicants were accepted. Harvard added 300 places since then, but this year's applicant pool faces a 1 in 15 chance of admission. It's exactly the same problem baseball players face. The ones that remain clean might miss an opportunity to succeed because of someone who is doping. On top of that, I've never met a Principle Investigator who didn't face tough competition in applying for a grant, nor a pre-med student who didn't worry about the difference between an A and an A-. It's all about the competition.

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Rich Harden pitched three innings on Saturday. He didn't pitch well, but he's working on fixing mechanics disrupted by his injuries:

More importantly, Harden is feeling fine physically and is confident about a minor mechanics adjustment he made in Saturday's 7-6 victory over the Cubs at Phoenix Muni Stadium.

"It's something I used to do a few years back," Harden said. "With injuries, you kind of start pitching away from pain. Your body changes its mechanics. We just kind of figured out something that's pretty big that I used to do with my front side."

In recent days, Harden worked on changing the placement of his left arm and hand position with first-year bullpen coach Ron Romanick, who's familiar with Harden because he was the A's roving pitching instructor for nine years.

"I just reminded him of what he used to do," Romanick said.

His continued health is good news for Oakland.

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The latest rumor sends Coco Crisp to the Cubs for Jason Marquis and a low level prospect.

Marquis would provide depth in the rotation and be more of "sure thing" than Bartolo Colon. Given how easily a misstep can occur and cause an injury to a starting pitcher, pitching depth of any kind is invaluable. However outside of Major League experience and health, Marquis, who is currently fighting for a spot in the Cubs rotation, doesn't have a whole lot going for him. Coming off a 2007 season where he was 12-9 with a 4.60 ERA in the National League, I wouldn't expect too much more out of Marquis than the Red Sox got last year out of Julian Tavarez.

Watching the Red Sox pitching moves this spring, signing Colon, looking at Freddy Garcia, and now a rumor about Marquis, I get the feeling they were woefully unprepared for adversity in the starting rotation. The depth that was a great strength for them last season seems to have vanished. In all likelihood, they'll be very good, but an injury to one of the projected top five starters and one of the rookies not working out and you suddenly have a team that's very dependent on the offense.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive starts week two on a high note. Eleven readers donated $206 yesterday. For the eight days of the drive, 73 readers donated $1804. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

Won't you join these readers? There is a large potential donor base reading this site. This Google Analytics report shows that over 12,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings during the first week of March. If each of these readers left $1 the donation, the dollar total would be around seven times higher. Won't you help increase the percentage of readers donating ?

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

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It's official, Jason Kendall is going to bat ninth for the Brewers:

"We've done studies on this," Yost said. "It's not just that we come up one day and say, 'You know, Jason Kendall's gonna hit ninth.'

"You've had a lot of smart people looking at it and crunching numbers and seeing if, numbers-wise, it made sense."

Those smart people decided that batting Kendall ninth, a departure from the conventional baseball wisdom of batting the pitcher in the final spot, did make sense. They thought it gave the Brewers an edge, which should translate into an opportunity to score more runs.

"More runs means more wins," Yost said. "Sometimes, you've gotta get outside the box a little bit."

Nice to see Yost willing to try something new.

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The Tampa Bay Rays ran over a Yankees minor league catcher today, breaking his wrist:

"I think it's uncalled for in spring training. You get people hurt and that's what we got, we got Cervelli hurt," said Joe Girardi. I can't agree more - there's no place for a play like that at this time of year, and I'm fairly certain there will be some retribution at some point. The to teams meet again on Wednesday, and the Rays visit the Bronx for a weekend series starting April 4th. Watch out.

Yes, from the Yankees point of view, this is uncalled for. For the Rays fans, however, it's good to see the team being aggressive.

Scott Kazmir's rehabilitation is going so well the Rays think he can start opening day.

Update: Meanwhile, David Price is right.

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Josh Beckett could not make his start this afternoon due to back spasms:

Beckett seemed to lose his footing on his last warmup pitch and called catcher Jason Varitek to the mound. Beckett put his right hand on the lower middle part of his back and soon was joined by manager Terry Francona and teammates. The right-hander walked to the dugout without an apparent limp.

With Schilling injured and Gabbard traded to Texas, the Red Sox rotation is not as deep as it was a year ago. In 2007, Lester, Gabbard and Buchholz were able to give Boston replacement performances well above replacement value. This year, the fall-back plan is Bartolo Colon.

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The Orioles have one less option at shortstop:

Freddie Bynum will have arthroscopic surgery on his right knee and miss at least five weeks, ending his bid to be Baltimore's starting shortstop on opening day.

Bynum complained about a sore knee early in camp, and an MRI revealed a torn meniscus. After trying to play through the pain, he decided surgery was the best option.

Like his competition, Luis Hernandez, Bynum showed little power in the minor leagues, but at least got on base decently. He was also a better offensive option than Brandon Fahey. At this point, the Orioles are better off going with the best glove they can find.

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Chicago White Sox. Their starters posted a 4.47 ERA in 2007, seventh in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Chicago White Sox top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Javier Vazquez	188	90	4.31
Mark Buehrle	181	82	4.08
Jose Contreras	190	93	4.84
John Danks	129	71	4.95
Gavin Floyd	91	55	5.44
Totals	762	391	4.62

In 2007, the White Sox were only one of two teams to receive 1000 innings from their starters, the other being the Cleveland Indians. With the departure of Jon Garland (who projects to about 100 more innings than Floyd with a much better ERA), that appears unlikely this season. That trade, as far as the pitching is concerned, hurts the White Sox in two dimensions.

But John Danks holds the potential to make up for the loss of Garland. He showed in the minors the ability to be a high strikeout, low walk pitcher. With a year of big league experience under his belt, we could see an improvement even greater than what Marcel predicts. Given that the White Sox play in the second best ballpark for scoring over the last three years, just getting the staff's ERA below 4.50 should give them a good chance of winning.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Atlanta Braves

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. After one week, sixty two readers donated $1598. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

Won't you join these readers? There is a large potential donor base reading this site. This Google Analytics report shows that over 12,000 unique visitors read Baseball Musings during the first week of March. If each of these readers left $1 the donation, the dollar total would be around eight times higher. Won't help bring the percentage of readers donating higher?

If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

Francisco Liriano pitched in a game today, his first since Tommy John surgery:

Francisco Liriano faced a major league team for the first time in 18 months, gave up no runs and felt no pain.

He even made Manny Ramirez look silly on a changeup that the Red Sox slugger flailed at for a third strike. And he made Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson smile.

"He felt great," Anderson said. "His first outing was outstanding and we just build off of that."

Certainly that's good news for the Twins. Liriano can take Johan Santana's place if he remains healthy. One thing that might help in that regard is a change of mechanics:

His motion was less energetic than it had been, a change Anderson hopes can help him avoid injury.

"On his finish, he's not so violent recoiling," Anderson said. "He looked pretty calm."

The questions, however, is can he be both calm and effective?

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With the Dodgers suffering at third base, South Side Sox wonders if the market for Joe Crede is heating up:

Crede and Inge are very similar players in that they're both low-OBP, defensive minded, slugging third basemen. But Crede brings more power, a better contact rate, and a smaller salary -- Inge is owed $19.1M over the next three years. Why wouldn't the Dodgers be interested?

They wouldn't be locking themselves into a 2.5 years of an overpriced bench player when LaRoche gets healthy. And Crede might be movable at the trade deadline to a team like the Indians, who might be looking for 3B help by then.

If the White Sox can get the Dodgers and Giants into a bidding war over Crede, that could help Chicago now. Of course, those two teams might go for the more expensive but healthier Inge, which might bring Detroit some extra bullpen help.

The Brewers owner in looking to lock up Fielder and others to long term contracts:

Attanasio said the club will pursue long-term deals with many of the young players on his roster. He said those talks will be held in private, however, to avoid having the negotiations play out in the media.

"Whether it's Prince or any of the players, we're interested in signing all of our younger players to longer-term deals," said Attanasio. "At the same time, the players have to be interested in doing it. They have to make individual decisions.

"We've decided not to comment on where we are in the process. If we don't conclude any talks, we won't announce that we didn't sign anybody. We don't want to have a daily posting."

That's good to hear. There's lots of upside to signing youngsters to long term deals.

Bill James sits down with Time magazine. Two separate questions actually meld together well. First, Bill on ERA:

You often show that conventional baseball statistics aren't as important as they appear. In the book, you write "every year that passes, the ERA (Earned Run Average) becomes a little more irrelevant." Why is that?

The reason the ERA is becoming a little more irrelevant every year is that pitchers don't pitch whole innings anymore. Relief pitchers anyway. If you go back to 1915, 1920, really, all pitchers pitched full innings 99% of the time. And you could measure a pitcher's effectiveness by how many runs he allowed in those whole innings. But modern pitchers, in particular modern relievers, pitch portions of an inning. And in a situation where each pitcher pitches a portion of an inning, who you charge the run to becomes critical. And the rule on whom we charge the run to is so careless and sloppy that it doesn't work. It often leads to pitchers having ERAs that do not reflect how they really pitch, either because the reliever allowed a bunch of runs to score that were charged to somebody else, or because the starting pitcher who left guys on base got hurt by it.

This melds with what Bill would do if he were commissioner:

This is the rule that I would adopt. I've thought about this for a long time, and I don't see why this doesn't work. One time per game, you get a free pitching change without restriction. Otherwise, when you put a pitcher on the mound to start an inning, he has to stay in the game until he's charged with a run allowed. In other words, you have a limit on how often you can put a pitcher out there, let him face one batter and "let's bring in somebody else."

I like that rule. I still like the old way teams used relievers, that he was expected to finish the game unless he got in trouble.

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Mike Hampton pulled a groin, and not in the good way.

Dex at Gaslamp Ball sounds like he believes the Jim Edmonds injury will be a positive for the Padres.

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Baseball Musings ranks seventh among sports blogs by Wikio:

The position of blogs in their Wikio ranking depends on the number and value of links that other blogs point toward them. The value of these links depends on the ranking of the blog publishing them. So in our algorithm, the value of a link published on a highly ranked blog is more important than a posted link on a blog with a lower ranking. This way, we hope to produce a ranking more representative of blogs' influence.

One of the nice things about the list is the subscribe button, which allows you to pick seven different subscription options.

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What if you build a stadium and no one can get to it?

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The Baseball Economist tries to answer the question, "Why Do Players Take Human Growth Hormone If It Doesn't Work?" He examines new research on the placebo effect.

It turns out that the placebo effect of human growth hormone could be even stronger than previously expected. New research by economist Dan Ariely finds that the placebo effect is exacerbated by the price of the drug.

Since HGH is four times as expensive as Winstrol, there's a desire to see it work.

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Atlanta Braves. Their starters posted a 4.45 ERA in 2007, seventh in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Atlanta Braves top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
John Smoltz	186	74	3.58
Tim Hudson	194	87	4.04
Tom Glavine	180	87	4.35
Chuck James	149	68	4.11
Jair Jurrjens	75	37	4.44
Totals	784	353	4.05

I'll note there are differences of opinion on this rotation. The MLB.com depth chart puts Hampton in the top five and Jurrjens as the spot starter. Given Hampton's fragile medical condition the last few years, I'm guessing he starts the season in the rotation but Jurrjens gets a lot of starts also.

The Braves rotation improves not so much from adding Glavine, but from moving out high ERA pitchers like Buddy Carlyle and Kyle Davies. The yle-less rotation looks to save the Braves about 0.4 runs per nine innings pitched.

With Hampton in the rotation, it could be one of the oldest of the last fifty years. My latest SportingNews.com column explains what that's not a bad thing.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers

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Vince Gennaro puts a value on the various pitching roles and decides the best financial return for the Yankees is to start Joba Chamberlain. WasWatching doesn't quite agree:

Is there value, outside of salary saved, for the Yankees to have Chamberlain make 20 beautiful starts in a season and then have half of those gems turned into losses because the team lacked quality arms in the pen (such as his)?

For me, it always comes down to that golden rule in baseball: Every season, with the exception of maybe the 1962 Mets or 1998 Yankees, every team in baseball is going to win 60 games, no matter what, and every team in baseball is going to lose 60 games, no matter what - and, it's what you do in those remaining 40 games that will make or break your season.

I think Steve is exaggerating the ability of the bullpen to blow a lead. If Joba starts, the Yankees are more likely to have a 5-2 lead after six innings, when the game goes to the pen. There's a very good chance the Yankees win those games, no matter who is in the bullpen.

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The Phillies are allowing fans to add money to their tickets that can be used for consessions at the park. It's just one way the bar codes on tickets are being used to better serve the fans at games:

That technology, he adds, also gives the team insight into some of their basic customer-service practices. By fans having their bar code swiped as they enter the ballpark, "we know what time these tickets come into the ballpark and we know what gate they come to, so we know how to staff the parking lots," Buck says. "We know how early to open Ashburn Alley, because we know that 2,400 people on an average weekday will be in the gates before 5:30."

I hope dynamic pricing for consessions isn't far behind.

The Baseball Musings pledge drive continues through March. Please consider making a donation.

The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. In the first six days, sixty readers donated $1568. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

Won't you join these readers? If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

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Darren Everson at the Wall Street Journal notes that baseball blogs are making a difference to ballclubs:

"We don't have a monopoly on baseball knowledge," says Sig Mejdal, the Cardinals' senior quantitative analyst who helped create the contest. "Just looking at the fan sites and posting boards, you see an amazing amount of energy. Why not harness it?"

The Cardinals' program is believed to be the first of its kind, but several sports franchises -- especially baseball teams -- have also begun to breach the divide that traditionally separates fans from team management. Last season, the Seattle Mariners used a report prepared by a friendly blogger to help one of the team's young pitchers. And one independent-league team from Illinois allowed fans to set the team's starting lineup.

These moves are often aimed at improving public relations. But they also suggest a new line of thinking among owners and managers of sports franchises. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of independent team-centric Web sites where partisan fans -- some of whom are mathematicians or scientists with Ph.D.s -- share their own enlightened statistical research and scouting analyses. Teams haven't just taken notice -- they are looking for ways to leverage all this brainpower.

Teams do read these sites. Keep up the good work everyone!

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Trey Hillman very publicly reminded his team how to run the bases after their win today:

Hillman had seen too many base-running mistakes earlier in the game.

His solution was to gather the entire team at the plate for what amounted to a 15-minute lecture in full view of the Diamondbacks and the departing crowd of 5,539. Hillman then spent another 10 minutes in discussion with veteran second baseman Mark Grudzielanek near third base before initiating his postgame news conference at the dugout.

"I was just talking about running the bases," Hillman told reporters. "We had a couple of mistakes today. I'm not displeased. We won the ballgame.

"We've got to run the bases the right way all of the time. And today, we had a couple of mistakes. We could have been in a better position."

It looks like he got through to the players:

Players also said Hillman indicated the problems were an accumulation of things over the last few days. If so, that seems odd because he made a point repeatedly to compliment the club's improving fundamentals after victories Tuesday and Wednesday over the Rockies and Giants.

If nothing else, the on-field meeting put players on notice that Hillman is willing to embarrass them in public as a penalty for sloppy play.

"At least we got it done in spring training," outfielder David DeJesus said. "Now we know. We'll take it from here, and we'll change it. He won't need to do that anymore."

Trey is going to keep this team on their toes.

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Noah Lowry will miss the beginning of the season:

San Francisco Giants pitcher Noah Lowry needs surgery after a recent bout of wildness and is probably out until the end of April.

Lowry was the Giants' top winner with a 14-8 record last season. The lefty had trouble throwing strikes this spring and the team sent him back to the Bay Area to be examined by a hand specialist.

The Giants said Thursday that Lowry was diagnosed with exertional compartment syndrome. According to MayoClinic.com, it is "an exercise-induced neuromuscular condition that causes pain, swelling and sometimes even disability in affected muscles of the legs or arms" and seems to affect primarily athletes in their 20s.

You expect this from the old players on the Giants. It they start losing the young ones as well they might challenge the Marlins for worst record in the NL.

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Kevin Frandsen will not be the Giants opening day shortstop:

The Giants moved Frandsen to short when Omar Vizquel had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee last week. The transition to the most difficult position on the infield did not go smoothly for the 25-year-old infielder, who made three errors in five Cactus League games. With Vizquel progressing nicely in his rehabilitation, meaning he might not miss much of the regular season, the Giants decided to return Frandsen to second base.

"That was a lot to throw at him, and he was only going to be at short for the first week of the season," Bochy said. "He's still going to get some time at short, but he's going to concentrate on second and third."

Which means the competition with second baseman Ray Durham is back on. Frandsen played second base in Wednesday's game against Kansas City and is scheduled to start at third base against the Angels today.

I guess this kills the idea of the Giants starting a young infield.

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The Red Sox reached an agreement with Jonathan Papelbon, rather than renewing him for the minimum raise:

The Boston Red Sox and closer Jonathan Papelbon agreed Thursday to a $775,000, one-year contract, nearly doubling his salary.

That's the way it should be. Papelbon is a star for the Red Sox, and it's always good to keep your stars happy.

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Albert Pujols' elbow is in bad shape:

Cardinals team physician Dr. George Paletta confirmed the diagnosis on Wednesday, and said that Pujols will need reconstructive surgery at some point, but not immediately. He said the Cardinals' first baseman has a "high-grade" tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, as well as bone spurs, inflammation and arthritis in the joint.

Paletta confirmed that Pujols could have undergone arthroscopic surgery to help the bone spurs and arthritis, but not the ligament tear; he could have had arthrscopic surgery and Tommy John surgery to rebuild the elbow (causing him to miss at least this season), or he could wait.

When he reported to camp, Pujols said he will not change his routine as he prepares for Opening Day.

"If it blows out it's going to blow out," Pujols said. "You can't control that."

Albert has three years plus an option left on his contract. Are the Cardinals better off letting him play and hoping the elbow lasts three years, or should they shut him down and insist on surgery, so he's 100% when this team is ready to compete again?

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yOOnew.com just introduced World Series ticket futures on their site. They were nice enough to call and give me the grand tour. The whole idea, for example, is that you can buy a contract for Minnesota Twins World Series tickets cheaply now, and if they surprise fans and make it, you get to go to the game at a reduced cost. Since they are futures contracts, you can also trade them. So if you buy the Pirates now and they get off to a great start, you might be able to sell the contract for a profit at the end of April.

Right now, you can bid at three levels. Tickets are available for each of the first four games of the series, split out by AL and NL. You can buy ticket futures for AL game one, for example. No matter who makes it from the American League, you get to go to the first game at their park. Or, if you want to see a specific team, you can buy a contract for that team making it. Or, if you want to see a specific matchup, you could buy a future on the Cubs playing the Indians. It's pretty neat, and serves all kinds of interests. For me, I'm trying to buy Tampa Bay futures, since they're cheap right now (no one has put in an ask yet). If the Rays should catch fire, I'll get to be at the first World Series game in Tampa for airfare! Traders get a chance to make a profit, and ticket resellers get to hedge their portfolios.

I can't wait for yOOnew to expand to regular season tickets for baseball. This is something the clubs should be doing, and now yOOnew provided them with a market.

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WasWatching reviews the Yankees horrid April schedule. It's the Pope's fault.

The original schedule had a more balanced April. But after it was completed, Pope Benedict scheduled an April 20 mass at Yankee Stadium. So some Yankees home games were flipped to accommodate the event and its preparation.

I assume Dana Jacobson won't be the MC for that event. :-)

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their starters posted a 4.43 ERA in 2007, sixth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. Since Marcel did not rate Kuroda, I used his PECOTA projection.

Marcel predictions for the Los Angeles Dodgers top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Brad Penny	183	76	3.74
Derek Lowe	181	79	3.93
Hiroki Kuroda	158	69	3.94
Chad Billingsley	127	51	3.61
Jason Schmidt	94	45	4.31
Totals	743	320	3.88

This projects to be an extremely solid rotation. Last season, the Dodgers starters fell well short of six innings per start, but if Schmidt is healthy and Billingsley gives them a full season, this starting staff will get much closer to that mark. The big question mark here is Kuroda. Do you get Matsuzaka or Igawa? My guess is that his projection is a bit optimistic.

Still, Penny and Lowe are capable of out performing their predictions, and if Billingsley gives them 160 innings at that level, the Dodgers could end up leading the NL in starters ERA in 2008.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets

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I think Moises Alou should adopt a new theme song this year:

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Rays of Light notes the window of opportunity for J.P. Howell to reach the majors is closing fast.

As I said earlier, with David Price knocking on the door (perhaps as soon as this summer), and Jade McDavis soon to follow in the next year or two, Howell is going to become a forgotten man unless he makes his mark soon. He needs to stand out. He needs to win a spot on the Opening Day roster and start getting big league batters out. He needs to consistently look like the minor league pitcher that's made me want to see him given a starting spot. More importantly than anything else, though, he needs to make it for himself, because I can't imagine there will be too many teams interested in a soft-tossing hurler who the Royals gave up on for Joey Gathright and who the Rays gave up on in his mid-20s.

Howell has Tommy John tendencies, and those pitchers tend to be very dependent on their defense. With Bartlett making that defense much stronger, Howell should look better on the big league club than he did last year.

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Via BBTF, Sports on my Mind offers one of the best posts on steroids I've seen. He starts by laying into the players and club officials who kept this quiet during the 1980s and 1990s:

Baseball players in the segment like Atlanta Braves pitcher Tom Glavine made excuses for steroid abuse:

"What goes on in the clubhouse stays in the clubhouse. That's the culture of the game. And it doesn't matter if the guy has a drinking problem or guys are doin' drugs, or whether guys are doin' things in their marriages they shouldn't be doin. You just don't discuss that.

If they're going out there and performing, then there's reason for everybody in the whole chain-of-command to not worry about what's goin' on or at least not explore so much what's goin' on."

In other words, Glavine, as do almost every other MLB player, engages in "the code of silence." It is a code that can only bring with it negative outcomes. It is the code that must be broken by policemen when they expose graft in their department. It is the code that must be broken by politicos to expose lies in the government. It is the code that must be broken by corporate employees when those they work for willfully entwine themselves in illegal acts that negatively impact the public.

However, he also has it in for reporters who don't report all the medical findings on steroids:

Here Quinn laughs sardonically before continuing:

"But that same winter you had the medical directors from both Major League Baseball and the Player's Association speak to clubs at the Winter Meetings and gave what people there said was a pro-testosterone speech. Said that there were definite benefits to it; that they should consider informing the player's about the benefits and dangers. There were people who left that meeting shocked that that was the opinion of the two top medical people in the game."

This is where there the unfathomable disconnect between writers like Quinn and other of his ilk with reality occurs. It is here where Quinn and the many like him stop - for whatever reason(s) - short in their investigative work and cease in aiding the conversation about performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) and sound more like propagandists. The result is that they fail to educate their peers, fail the public, and even fail lawmakers who, in part, rely on their countless hours spent close to the subject of PEDs for direction.

The author then cites studies that show for men over 25 years of age, steroids can help enhance well being. It's well worth the read to get the contrarian view on the subject, one for which I hold sympathy. While I don't think players should have used drugs illegally, I do think they they should be allowed to use them under a doctors care, and that use should be public knowledge. Then the fans can decide if they like those players or not.

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The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. In the first five days, fifty three readers donated $1411. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

Won't you join these readers? If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

Manager Trey Hillman and coach Quilvio Veras are getting through to David DeJesus about upping his on-base average:

At first glance, DeJesus emerges as a poster boy for Hillman's philosophy. DeJesus ranked second among the club's regulars last season with a .351 on-base percentage and was even better, at .358, when serving as the leadoff hitter.

Dig just a little deeper, though, and a need for improvement screams out.

DeJesus' .358 OBP placed him 10th among 22 AL players last season who got at least 150 plate appearances while serving as a lineup's leadoff hitter.

"There are so many little things that I just took for granted in my first few years," he said. "So many of these little things that coaches are pointing out are things that I never really thought about.

"It all comes down to on-base percentage and runs scored. Those are the two things a leadoff hitter wants. That's your job; get on base and score runs."

I really can't wait to see how all this plays out in Kansas City. Reading the various articles about Trey during this spring, I'll ask a question I've asked before. Why don't the Moneyball GMs hire managers who agree with their philosophy? Hillman should be managing the Athletics or the Blue Jays. Good for Dayton Moore for hiring someone who actually believes in OBA and doesn't mind talking about it.

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Peter Kreutzer donated $50 or more and dedicates this post to his new player commenting site, pattonandco.com.

Carlos Zambrano homered today in addition to pitching three scoreless innings. Carlos has twelve regular season major league home runs, and has hit at least one in each of the last five seasons. Since the start of the 2003 season, he owns the highest slugging percentage of any pitcher in the majors with at least 200 PA.

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Moises Alou's groin strain turned out to be worse than previously thought:

Moises Alou will have surgery for a hernia and miss the start of the season, the most serious in a string of recent setbacks for the depleted New York Mets.

After reporting discomfort in his right groin, the oft-injured Alou left spring training camp Wednesday and was sent back to New York for tests. He is scheduled to undergo surgery Thursday.

The 41-year-old left fielder is expected to resume baseball activities in four to six weeks, making it likely he'll be sidelined for at least most of April.

All four leftfielders on the Mets depth chart are now listed as injured. It's just a sea of red injury markers. Does anyone think the Mets are missing Lastings Milledge right now?

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A reader donated at least $50 and dedicates this post. His buddy Stephen Burwell sits on the board for the ALSA-Evergreen Chapter, and sends this quote:

"In 1939, Lou Gehrig was diagnosed with ALS which ended the consecutive game streak of the "Iron Horse" at 2,130 games. Yet, almost 70 years later there is still no known cause, cure, or treatment for ALS. ALS is not rare; every 90 minutes someone in the US is diagnosed with ALS. Find out more information about ALS at www.alsa-ec.org".

Two of the White Sox youngsters are being shut down for a couple of days:

Owens, who has taken the early lead as leadoff man/center fielder, continues to be bothered by a nagging groin pull that has bothered him for several days.

"I don't like the way he was running the bases," Guillen said. "The key for him is his legs and we have to keep those legs fresh. ... There's no reason for him to go out there and hurt himself again. All of a sudden a minor injury could become a big injury. We learned that from having [Scott] Podsednk. Pods would go from a little soreness to a big deal."

Quentin, acquired in an off-season trade with Arizona, is clearly falling behind this spring as he comes back from left shoulder surgery to repair labrum and rotator cuff tears. The soreness affects his swing more than his defense, though Guillen characterizes the situations as "not a big deal."

"This kid is going to be here for good and I think he was creating bad habits with his swing and it led to some soreness, but he'll be fine," Guillen said. "If it was the start of the season, he could play. But rather than have him push it and lose one more week, we are holding him back. I think it's the best for him."

Seems prudent.

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If you missed tonight's show, you can hear the recorded version here. It's also available on demand at TPSRadio.

In the mail today, Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual. It has all you need to know about the San Diego Padres. I'm looking forward to some free time to read it.

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The Baseball Musings radio show will be on TPSRadio tonight at 8 PM EDT. Check out TPSRadio's other sports programming as well.

Feel free to leave a question in the comments to this post or during the show in the TPSRadio chat room and I'll be happy to answer it on the air.

My latest SportingNews.com column examines what an old starting staff means for the Braves.

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Moises Alou pulled a groin. Johan and Pedro may have to strike out all the batters they face, because there may not be any fielders left by the time the season starts.

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Bobby Murcer's biopsy showed scar tissue, not a return of cancer. Great news and best wishes for a continued recovery for the Yankees announcer!

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Greg Maddux credits Keith Kleven with keeping the pitcher healthy and effective for over twenty years:

Maddux said he has followed Kleven's regimen every year since 1983.

"I was 17 and I wanted to see how the treatment would help, and he started talking about taking care of my shoulder, elbow and legs," Maddux said.

"He taught me how to take care of myself. He taught me exercises to reduce the risk of injury, to help me perform in my sport. He taught me a routine that was specific for playing baseball. A lot of it has helped with my flexibility.

"I've been fortunate to have had somebody like that to help me along. You have a number of people who influence you over the years. Mostly pitching coaches. But to have somebody show you how to take care of yourself from early on, it's definitely helped.

"Tiger Woods, the guy can go see whoever he wants. He goes to Vegas to see Keith. What does that tell you?"

Maddux was actually a janitor for Kleven in high school.

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Congratulations to the Reds who realized they could sign a sixteen year old Dominican star without waiting for the official signing period to start. Juan Duran is already 6 feet 6 inches and 190 pounds, and is being compared to Juan Gonzalez and Vlad Guerrero. Here's the loophole they exploited:

Players who are 16 years old are eligible to sign with major league teams during the international signing period, which lasts from July 2 to Aug. 31. Players who turn 16 years old during the international signing period are eligible to sign with teams on their birthdays.

Duran's birthday is Sept. 2, 1991, making him a 16-year-old who seemed to have barely missed the cutoff point to sign during last year's international signing period, and it appeared he would have to wait until the commencement of the 2008 period to sign. However, the rules state that for an international player to be eligible to sign, he must be 16 years old at the time of the signing and turn 17 years old by either Sept. 1 or by the end of his first professional season.

Players signed during the international signing period are not eligible to play that same year, so their first professional season comes the following calendar year. For example, a player signed during the 2007 international signing period would have his first professional season be the 2008 season.

The Reds realized that they could sign Duran if they assigned him to their 2008 roster in Billings in the Rookie-level Pioneer League, where the regular season ends on Sept. 5. Since Duran will turn 17 before the end of the 2008 Pioneer League season, he was eligible to sign before the 2008 international signing period and was eligible to sign back on his birthday last year.

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Dugout Central suggests Joba Chamberlain should be used as a pure reliever this season, soaking up 25% of the Yankees relief innings. The idea is to make him a two or three inning fireman rather than just as a setup man that transitions into a starter.

My good friend Jim Storer suggested a mixed role, where Joba starts once every ten games, and in between is used in the setup role.

All of these plans have their merits, but I really think Joba's role is going to be dictated by the success or failure of Mike Mussina. My bet is that Mussina is through, and by the end of April the Yankees won't have a choice but to replace Mike in the rotation with Joba. Then at some point, the Yankees can give him two weeks off to control his innings while testing out one of their better minor league prospects.

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Defensive Indifference already had enough of Dusty Baker. The Corey Patterson signing put him over the edge:

Why the hell would you want a guy who had 80 extra-base hits in the minors last season when you could just have a replacement level player get 600 plate appearances in a completely winnable division.

Let's hope Patterson is just a back up player.

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The Dominican Republic is threatening to pull out of the WBC if they can't host in 2009. I guess their leverage is that lots of major league stars come from the DR. However, I bet a lot of clubs would like those stars in camp rather than playing in a tournament, so it might not be a bad thing for the clubs.

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Once again, Jeremy Bonderman works on his changeup:

We've been through this before with Jeremy Bonderman.

The Detroit Tigers say he needs a changeup. He agrees. Then Bonderman declares he has finally found the changeup and vows to use it regularly.

"I think this pitch is going to work for me, I really do," he said, a year ago this week. "I'm going to use it, no matter what."

And then, according to stats compiled by Bill James, Bonderman threw his changeup just six percent of the time during the regular season, a number Bonderman said Monday sounded pretty accurate to him.

Bonderman feels more comfortable with the grip this year. While a lot was made of Bonderman's poor first innings last year, he also pitched poorly in the third. This suggests to me that he has trouble with good hitters, the kind you find at the top of the order. The batting order splits (so the same page) bear this out. A good changeup might make him more effective against these good hitters, and that would bring down his ERA.

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Steve Johnson notes the new restrictions on online pictures probably does MLB more harm than good:

Certainly the Internet changes the coverage paradigm. What used to appear in tomorrow's newspaper or on tonight's sportscast can suddenly appear right away. What used to be limited to a relative handful of outlets granted official entry to a sporting event can now be done by anyone with a ticket and a cellular Wi-Fi connection.

But in their zeal for control, the sports organizations are forgetting the fundamental role in their popularity played by intermediaries such as the papers, bloggers, even sports radio.

A fan base isn't built merely by telecasting games. It needs the next level of engagement, the columns about firing the coach, the caller proposing the three-team trade.

The Web, obviously, will play a huge role going forward in this. And to hamstring its abilities almost at the outset will do more damage to sports organizations in the long run than will letting a few stray photographs float around.

MLB should be subsidizing bloggers, or at least providing them with all the pictures and videos they can use. It is free advertising, after all.

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The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. In the first four days, forty four readers donated $1244. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

Won't you join these readers? If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps. If everyone who visits in March donates $1, I can run this site for a year. For $10 this site can run indefinitely.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley and Jack Spellman as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink.

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

Beyond the Boxscore points out that Scott Kazmir is more than paying his salary.

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Kei Igawa pitched in what turned out to be a five-inning perfect game by the Yankees on Tuesday. Brian Cashman and Hideki Matsui both makes good points about Igawa in this NY Times story. Cashman takes the positive view:

"If I felt that our evaluations were improper, then I would think that he's failed, and I'm not ready to concede that yet," Cashman said. "It took José Contreras some time to adjust, and although he possesses a different ability, he led the White Sox to a world championship.

"All I can tell you is Igawa was the strikeout leader in Japan -- and not just for one year -- and those guys are contact hitters over there. Swing-and-miss is still a big part of his game. You can't deny that; just look at his statistics."

I remember looking at Matsuzaka and Igawa's stats when they signed. Daisuke had the better record, but Kei appeared to be close behind. Godzilla talks about Igawa's pitch selection:

"In Japan, he had pretty good velocity and he was the type of pitcher that usually threw fastballs and changeups to strike out hitters," Hideki Matsui said through an interpreter.

"In Japan, you don't see that many pitchers throw changeups, as opposed to here, where a lot of pitchers throw changeups. And in Japan, his fastball was pretty fast. But when you compare it to pitchers here, it's not as fast."

So what Cashman missed was the reason for the strikeouts. Something that was unusual in Japan was common place here.

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A great post at MetsBlog.com as Johan Santana teaches Matt Cerrone the circle change. He also discusses how there's much more than the grip to throwing the pitch:

"This is why I focus so much on my release point, because that's what makes my change-up better," he explained to me. "I want to make sure all of my pitches look the same, and so I get the same release point and same arm speed every pitch. And that takes time. That's what I work on. Not just the grip, but everything from head to toe so that everything can look the same. We worked on all of that until we got it right. That's how I approach my games, my batting practices, my bullpen sessions. I am very serious when I throw my bullpen. I'm not just throwing. I want to make sure that everything is in place, from location to mechanics to delivery to release point. Everything. It's not just the grip. There are a lot of things involved in throwing a change-up."

First class reporting from Matt.

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The Red Sox are removing the Coke bottles from left field and will instead have Coke sponsor a seating section:

Fenway will now have a "Coca-Cola Corner" which will boast 412 new seats (total capacity for night games now 38,888) under a scrolling, red-LED lighted Coca-Cola sign "reminiscent of a sign that stood along Storrow Drive for more than 40 years."

It sounds like it will be similar to the rooftop area sponsored by Budweiser.

The Coke sign mentioned about used to be visible from our dining hall in Mather House at Harvard. I was one of the few people who woke up for breakfast, and since I never wore a watch, would sit so I could see the clock on the top of the sign.

My roommate, David Aceto was having breakfast with me one morning when I said, "It's 8:30, time to leave for class." David wanted to know how I knew what time it was, and I told him I read it off the sign. Aceto's eyes weren't as good as mine, but he did not believe I could read the sign from there. Oh for the days of 20-20 vision!

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Dave Yeager contributed $50 or more to the Baseball Musings pledge drive and dedicates this post to his blog Soul Kerfuffle.

Are more young players complaining about their salaries this season? It started with Prince Fielder, but Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and to a certain extent Jeff Francoeur didn't like the offers contracts they received. After describing the contract as a "low blow," Hamels had this to say:

The Phillies are "very business-savvy," said Hamels, who is expected to be a "Super Two" player after this season. "When you know you can have a guy for a certain amount, why go up? I mean, truly. If you're running a successful business, I don't know why you really would."

But in the next breath, Hamels said he would remember this.

"That will affect down the line certain things that come up," he said. "You can't just all of a sudden throw everything out at [a player] at the last second and think that's really going to make him happy, because you still have checkmarks for what [the team] didn't do in the years before."

There's tension here because some teams, like the Indians and Rockies, recognize good talent at a young age and pay accordingly. Other teams, like the Phillies and Brewers are happy to go year to year. The players, however, are becoming more savvy as to their actual worth, and are starting to realize that the rules are screwing them out of money.

Remember, the MLBPA did not want full fledged free agency. They like the six-year limit for free agency because it keeps the supply of free agents low, so their salaries go higher. With more and more teams ignoring free agents building from within (see Yankees and Red Sox, this year), the great young player realize they are getting exploited so Gary Matthews and Carl Pavano can earn $10 million a year. If one of these four end up with a career ending injury, they've missed out on earning millions of dollars.

Major League Baseball would be better off making every player a free agent whenever his contract expired. That would keep the supply high and damp down salaries, but it would also benefit the great young players. It would change the compensation structure so players were paid for what they accomplished now, not in the past. If I were commissioner, I'd be using these four young men to push for such a deal.

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It looks like Noah Lowry's wildness had an organic basis:

A day after a wild outing, Giants pitcher Noah Lowry was diagnosed with tendinitis in his left wrist Tuesday and sent back to San Francisco to see a hand specialist.

The lefty is expected to be inactive for at least three or four days. On Monday, he walked nine of the 12 batters he faced against Texas.

I saw some speculation that he was becoming Steve Blass, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

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Jacque Jones helps Curtis Ganderson.

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Via MLB FanHouse, a Red Sox scout was caught showing off:

A Boston Red Sox scout was arrested, accused of masturbating at the window of his hotel room in front of two women and two underage girls at the swimming pool, records show.

Jesse Levis, 39, faces two felony charges for committing lewd and lascivious acts in front of children under the age of 16.

Levis was a catcher for Cleveland and Milwaukee during his playing career. It turns out this wasn't his first time:

The hotel manager, Ken Glass, told police a similar incident had happened last year, when Levis was checked into a room on the fourth floor overlooking the pool, the report said.

Somehow, I don't think he'll be back next season.

The Mariners posted their media guide online. This is very useful. In the past, you had to be a member of the media to get one or shell out $5. Now you can just look up numbers anytime anywhere without lugging books around. I hope all teams are doing this.

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Just when things are looking up for Hank Blalock, his car gets hit from behind:

Hank Blalock's car was rear ended yesterday as he came home from lunch (at Chuck E. Cheese) with his wife and one of his kids (his 3-year-old son). Blalock said he was sore and has stiff neck, but is fine otherwise. His wife and child are also fine after getting checked out by a doctor. Blalock said it was a hard hit, adding that one witness thought the other car was going about 40 mph.

I had that happen to me once. I was going 60 MPH in the middle lane of a highway at 1 AM, on my way back from ESPN. No one around me. A pickup truck gets on the highway, and either he fell asleep or wasn't paying attention and plowed right into me. Then the jerk turns his lights off and continues down the highway. Luckily, I had my cell phone, called the state police, and they arrested him in Hartford where he was still driving with his lights off. It took me about two weeks for the soreness to subside.

And no, I did not explode.

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One of my favorite economics bloggers and a Chicago resident comes down against the state buying Wrigley Field:

I am not persuaded by the argument that Wrigley's renovation requires so much capital that it exceeds the levels of private investment that a private owner can undertake.

Disgusting.

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The Baseball Analysts bring in an Angels blogger and a Mariners blogger for their roundtable discussion of the ALWest. The more I look at this division, the more I like the Mariners.

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John Delcos is asking for help:

I am asking help from Westchester, Rockland and Putnam residents to share their memories of Shea Stadium. It could be your first game, a memorable game, meeting a player there, etc.

The first time I went to Shea was on a Cubs Scouts field trip in 1970. My dad was one of the chaperones, and he was very impressed with the park (it was his first time there as well). He was used to having sight lines blocked by supports, but every seat in Shea gave you a view of the field.

Unfortunately, my dad and one other father were the only male chaperones on the trip, so he'll tell you he saw most of the game from inside the restroom. :-)

Update: The LoHud Yankees blog has a similar request for Yankees Stadium.

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the New York Mets. Their starters posted 4.40 ERA in 2007, fifth in the National League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the New York Mets top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Johan Santana	193	71	3.31
Pedro Martinez	87	38	3.93
John Maine	163	73	4.03
Oliver Perez	160	80	4.50
Orlando Hernandez	148	74	4.50
Totals	751	336	4.03

The addition of Johan Santana to the rotation gives the Mets a boost. The rotation threw 940 1/3 innings last year, and a 0.3 plus reduction in earned runs allowed should be good for three wins. That would have been enough to put the Mets in the playoffs last year.

Correction: Looks like I used Livan's projection instead of Orlando's.

Even with a low prediction for innings from Pedro, the Mets are in decent shape to average six innings per start. The Mets are going to need help to get to six innings per start. Martinez probably gives them more than 87 innings, but those may just trade off from the injured Orlando Hernandez's totals. Given their abilities to prevent runs, the New York will be happy with the tradeoff. Pelfry is predicted to post a 4.83 ERA, so trading Mike for Orlando doesn't make much of a difference. Still, he'll be a perfectly acceptable spot starter.

New York's starting staff, especially if Pedro is indeed healthy, should be among the best in the NL this season. Remember, Marcel doesn't take into account parks or leagues. Santana's predicted ERA is likely on the high end of his range.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics
• Minnesota Twins

Correction: I meant Orlando, not Livan Hernandez. Sorry about the mixup. My head doesn't seem to be on straight this morning.

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Shawn Hill received his second opinion, and he's clear to throw again:

The Nationals updated his status thusly this morning: His examination "confirmed taht the radial nerve's motor branch (surgically decompressed after the '07 season) is normal and does not require surgery. Shawn will continue his rehabilitation program and is day-to-day."

This, it seems, is good news -- as long as Hill is willing to pitch through the discomfort. Again, even before he went in for the MRI late last week, he was throwing the ball well. We'll have to get something from Manny Acta this morning on what the plans are going forward.

The Nationals rotation was a bit backward last year, with the four-five starters (Hill and Redding) posting the best ERAs. The Nationals have to hope this really isn't serious and that Hill can emerge as the staff ace.

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The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. In the first three days, thirty readers donated $1041. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

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Sports Hub LA looks at the centerfield situation for both the Dodgers and Angels.

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Beyond the Boxscore postulates that Corey Hart might be an underrated baseball player.

About a week ago I was doing a little research for a fantasy site and thought I'd look for players who might drive in lots of runs because they were batting behind two high OBA hitters. One of them was Hart, who is likely to follow Braun and Fielder in the Brewers batting order. Given Anderson's graph at the link, he might be someone you should consider drafting.

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It looks like the Rockies are about to extend Brad Hawpe.

The National League champion Rockies, locking up another of their homegrown players, are on the verge of signing right fielder Brad Hawpe to a three-year contract worth approximately $17.5 million.

This will replace the contract he signed recently.

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The Baseball Crank publishes his latest age adjustments for Established Win Share Levels.

Noah Lowry pitched a poor outing today:

Noah Lowry's out in the second inning of today's game after walking nine batters and throwing a few more balls off the screen behind home plate. Two spring outings, two control disasters.

For his career, Noah walks 3.6 batters per nine, not great but not bad. With Zito throwing poorly in his first outing, a strength of the Giants is looking like a liability.

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Micah Owings didn't start today:

Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Micah Owings skipped a scheduled start Monday because of a sore shoulder.

Like most of these spring injuries, no one seems too concerned about it. Anytime you hear sore shoulder before the pitchers have done much this spring, you have to wonder what's going on. At least Owings could always become an offensive player.

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Davey Lopes has prostate cancer. I hope he makes a fast and complete recovery.

This has to be disheartening to both Crosby and the Athletics:

Oakland Athletics shortstop Bobby Crosby was dropped from the starting lineup for Monday's exhibition game against the Los Angeles Angels due to back spasms.

I wonder if at some point the Athletics just drop Bobby. Is there really any chance he's ever going to live up to his potential? His seasonal age is 28 for 2008, meaning he should be playing at his peak. All the injuries retarded his growth as a hitter, and I wouldn't be surprised if Oakland was just better off finding a new solution at shortstop.

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Jeff Francoeur sat down with Ken Rosenthal and he's saying the right things:

Q: Why did you put on the weight?

A: Home runs. To be able to drive the ball. I think I've given up on the idea that I'm going to steal 30 or 40 bags a year. I'm really looking to put my last two seasons together and have a big year this year. I don't think there's any reason I can't.

I made huge strides offensively last year in (plate) discipline. Talking to Glav (Tom Glavine), we were playing golf down here, he just said how differently the Mets pitched me in the last two years. Compared to 2006, last year they said, "We've got to start throwing him strikes. We've got to pitch him. We just can't throw it up there."

For me, that's good. I'm making pitchers think more, forcing them to throw strikes. I don't think there's any reason I shouldn't hit 30 to 35 home runs.

Q: How much are you still focused on improving your plate discipline?

A: My goal has been to go 10 or 15 walks up in the next two or three years, every year. Last year, I had 42 (up from 23 in '06). This year, I want to get to about 60 or so and keep moving up.

I would love to walk about 80 times a year. I know I'm too aggressive to get into the 100 range. But to be able to do that would be something that would be big for me. And that's when I will be able to hit .310, that kind of average.

The history of baseball is littered with players who never came to appreciate what selectivity at the plate can do to improve their game. It's great to see Jeff understand this weakness in his game and work to improve it.

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Halos Heaven notes that John Lackey probably won't be ready for opening day, and that the Angels may move a some pitchers up and down the system during the first week of the season to cover themselves.

I looked at the AL West a couple of weeks ago for my radio show, and I just don't see LAnaheim running away with this division. I know the Mariners blogs are down on the construction of that team, but now the Angels have Lackey and Escobar both hurting. I don't see why the Mariners can't win this division; it's not like the Angels are put together particularly well either.

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A.J. Burnett's damaged finger nail is limiting his pitch selection this spring:

But Arnsberg revealed yesterday that Burnett has not yet been able to throw a single curve because of a torn nail on his right index finger. According to Arnsberg, Burnett broke the nail by getting it caught in a closing car door prior to arriving in Florida.

It's not a gruesome injury, only a few millimetres missing off the top. But it makes all the difference to Burnett's spike curve, which requires him to dig the tip of his finger into the seam of the ball.

"It makes it pretty tough to get to that pitch. It's pretty tender," Arnsberg said.

It will be two weeks before the nail grows back. Burnett must be a frustrating pitcher for the Blue Jays. When he pitches, he's fine, but he just hasn't stayed healthy in his first two seasons for the team.

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Might the Giants end up with an infield of Ortmeier, Denker, Frandsen and Velez? If they can learn to play competent defense, I think the pitching staff would welcome the increased offense that group is likely to bring to the team.

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I guess someone needs to replace Scott Spiezio.

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Jason Giambi likes facing creative pitchers and tells a good David Cone story:

Giambi recalled how he socked his first career homer off Cone's fastball in 1995. After that, Cone was stingy with fastballs to Giambi. During one game, Cone threw four straight breaking pitches to walk Giambi and force in a run. "I asked Coney afterwards why he didn't throw me a fastball," Giambi said. "He told me he wasn't giving me a fastball with Tejada on deck."

With the free-swinging Miguel Tejada batting behind Giambi, Cone decided to sacrifice a run and go after Tejada. "Coney threw him three straight high fastballs and struck him out," Giambi said.

At bats like that were probably a reason the Athletics let Tejada walk when he became a free agent. To his credit, Tejada did bring his strikeout rate down after hitting a high of 102 in 2000.

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Minnesota Twins. Their starters posted 4.33 ERA in 2007, sixth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Liriano shows his violent delivery in the photo to the right. This made him effective but also blew out his arm.

Marcel predictions for the Minnesota Twins top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Francisco Liriano	57	22	3.47
LIvan Hernandez	184	97	4.74
Kevin Slowey	88	44	4.50
Scott Baker	139	71	4.60
Boof Bonser	156	81	4.67
Totals	624	315	4.54

Like the Athletics, this is a rotation in flux. The Twins are depending on an injured ace to return to form and a group of very young pitcher to mature into a solid unit. Unlike the Athletics, however, the Twins hired a veteran pitcher, Livan Hernandez, to take up some of the innings slack. Still, this rotation goes into the season with four question marks and an older pitcher who will give them innings but not necessarily good innings. I expect the rise the Twins starter's ERA to be real this season.

The good news is that the four youngsters project to post good strikeout and very good walk numbers. Keeping free passes at a minimum is the hallmark of the Twins organization. If these inexperienced starters can execute that game plan, they'll be in good shape eventually.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Oakland Athletics

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Playing off Sunday's post about ownership winning early, or not at all, John Moores sets the 2008 goal for the Padres:

Asked if the goal this year is the franchise's first World Series championship, Moores gave a measured response.

"The goal is to play meaningful games in September," he said. "Unfortunately for us, and fortunately, the West is quite competitive. I think there are going to be four very competitive clubs, and we are one of them. I don't want to leave anybody out, but I feel pretty good about us."

Now, Padres fans, wouldn't you rather have an owner who wants to win the World Series more than anything?

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I don't quite understand the controversy over selling naming rights to Wrigley Field. It's not like in San Diego they were honoring a local citizen who helped bring baseball to the town. Wrigley Field is a corporate sponsorship that doesn't pay squat to the Cubs. It's like switching Enron to Minute Maid.

If fans don't like the new name, just keep calling it Wrigley Field. Only announcers will get in trouble for calling it anything else.

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The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. Over the weekend, thirty readers donated $891. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

Won't you join these thirty readers? If you enjoy this site, if you use the tools such as the Day by Day Database, consider a donation. Any amount helps.

And, in best NPR fashion, there are premiums. For a donation of $50, you will be able to dedicate a post. The dedication should be in good taste and may contain a hyperlink. For a contribution of $500, you can join Jan in Wellesley as a Patron on the side bar for two years, including a hyperlink. Jack Spellman gave enough Saturday to join Jan in the Patron's section. Thanks very much, Jack!

Donations can be made via Amazon, PayPal or Click and Pledge. Just click on the button of choice below. There are a number of people who won't use PayPal, and Amazon limits contributions in a one month period. Click and Pledge will process a credit card without making you sign up for an account.

Thanks to all my readers for your visits, your comments, and for making this site a success!

Ben Sheet talks about regaining his arm slot. You would think they could look at video and figure it out, but that didn't help Ben:

"You'd think it would be an easy thing to remember but it's not," he said shortly after his outing. "I went all of last year, and I pitched well at times last year, but I went all of last year without getting in it. We searched and we searched and we searched, but I never found it."

But Sheets discovered this past winter pitching isn't necessarily rocket science and all the research in the world isn't necessary to discover the feeling of success.

"There's no reason why I found it other than I just stumbled on it," he said. "I started throwing it from there and it ended up being what I wanted. The ball has so much life at the end of it.

"I was just throwing by myself against the wall. I don't know why or how. I wasn 't looking for it. I researched it all last year. (Pitching coach) Mike (Maddux) would say it looks good but I couldn't find it. Everybody goes through it, fighting their mechanics.

"It does 't make sense. ... But it 's just muscle memory and if you lose it, it's hard to get it back at times."

This would be very good news for the Brewers and bad news for NL hitters.

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The Brewers managed to upset one of their star players:

The Milwaukee Brewers renewed the slugger's deal for $670,000 on Sunday after finishing third in NL MVP voting last season.

"I'm not happy about it at all," Fielder said. "The fact I've had to be renewed two years in a row, I'm not happy about it because there's a lot of guys who have the same amount of time that I do who have done a lot less and are getting paid a lot more.

"But my time is going to come. It's going to come quick, too."

Going to arbitration after this season, Fielder has every reason to try for a monster year. Given what Ryan Howard received, Milwaukee should be ready to see their payroll increase significantly next season. The question is, will they patch this up, or continue to upset Fielder so much he leaves as soon as he's able to become a free agent? Milwaukee should study Pittsburgh and Barry Bonds and see if they want to go down that road.

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Mike Hampton pitched well facing batters for the first time since 2005:

He's been sidelined with multiple shoulder and elbow injuries and, most recently a leg injury. He hasn't pitched in a big league game since 2005, but Braves manager Bobby Cox said he still has Hampton penciled in for a spot in his starting rotation.

Hampton was sharp and struck out his first batter, Michael Bourne, on four pitches. He allowed only one single in two innings and only went to two balls on one batter.

That's good news for the Braves, who are going to use a very old rotation this season.

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Alfonso Soriano will miss a few days of practice with a broken finger.

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ShysterBall analyzes the Bonds grand jury testimony and concludes the government is going to have a tough time convicting Barry:

There are about 70 more pages, but they're pretty much all variations on the above themes. Overall Barry seems evasive and defensive, but like I said, not so much that there's perjury on the face of his testimony. If he's going to get got, the government has to put someone on the stand to call him a liar.

And that's pretty much that. Given the indictment being temporarily thrown out on Friday, it's going to be a long time before Bonds gets to trial. Given the nature of the questioning and charging, he may never be convicted. Given the opinion most of the public has about Bonds, it may never matter one way or the other.

Hat tip, Baseball Think Factory.

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The writers talk with Yogi Berra.

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Oakland Athletics. Their starters posted 4.29 ERA in 2007, fifth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart. Marcel does not have a prediction for Gio Gonzalez, so I went with his PECOTA.

Marcel predictions for the Oakland Athletics top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Joe Blanton	194	90	4.18
Rich Harden	71	29	3.68
Justin Duchscherer	39	17	3.92
Chad Gaudin	148	70	4.26
Gio Gonzalez	121 2/3	64	4.73
Totals	573 2/3	270	4.24

This is a rotation in flux. The most optimistic outlook is that both Harden and Duchscherer recover from their injuries and give the Athletics 160 innings at those ERA levels. Given that Harden hasn't qualified for the ERA title since 2004, I don't think Oakland wants to push him beyond that level. With Duchsherer coming out of the pen, the A's won't stretch him too much either. I expect to see a lot of starts by a lot of rookies this season as Oakland tries to figure out what their rotation of the future looks like. I'd put that 4.24 ERA at the optimistic end of the projection.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Toronto Blue Jays

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Harry Pavlidis isn't happy with Jason Marquis's attitude, and neither is Lou Piniella. Marquis, to a certain, extent, is right. As long as he pitches decently, the Cubs aren't going to eat his large contract.

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Cole Hamels wants to be great:

Cole Hamels is different. Ask the 24-year-old Phillies lefty what he's shooting for this season, and he comes out firing.

He wants to win 20 games. He wants to win the Cy Young Award. He wants to pitch a no-hitter and hopes the game is nationally televised when he does. He wants to pitch in the All-Star Game and the World Series.

And when it's all over - his career, that is - he wants to make the Hall of Fame.

I really like this. The more competitive a player, the more I'd want him on my team. These players often turn out not to be the nicest people, but as far as putting a winning team on the field, give me as many of these types as you can find.

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A great article in the Boston Globe points out that if an owner doesn't win early, that owner rarely wins at all:

In professional sports, an owner's commitment to winning right out of the gate counts, according to a Globe compilation and analysis of championships won by the last two rounds of owners for every team in the four major US sports leagues. If new owners don't win a championship within five to eight years of buying a team, depending on the sport, their chances of ever doing so decline dramatically, the Globe found. Many will never win.

Kraft claimed his first championship in precisely the median time it has taken other football owners to win - eight years. For baseball, basketball, and hockey, the median time to win the big trophy is five years, the data show. The largest slice of winning owners earn their victories within five years.

Take baseball, with its 30 teams, for example. Among 59 current and immediate past owners, seven won a World Series within five years of buy ing a team. After that, a handful of victories are sprinkled over four decades. And 38 owners have never won (not counting nine who have owned teams for less than five years).

The odds are surprisingly similar in the other major-league sports. It turns out that an owner's impatience to deliver championships is a big factor in the results.

That's really fascinating. One would think that owners would learn what works and what doesn't over time and improve their chances of winning by being more experienced. The desire to win early on seems to be a great motivator.

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The Dirtbag-O-Meter is up to 70%.

With all the talk about "will they or won't they" I would have forgiven Longoria if he opened the spring with a goose egg and an error at third right through the wickets. Now I get a sense very early on that pressure is not something that is going to bother The Dirtbag. Not even a little bit.

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Steve Caimano wonders why Stan Musial isn't included in discussions of the greatest living ballplayer:

Stan Musial may be the most underrated Hall of Famer and deserves to be considered "The Greatest Living Ballplayer". This statement may seem odd to you because the conversation around the unofficial title of TGLB, ever since the passing of Ted Williams, has centered on two men: Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. While there can be no question that the "Say Hey Kid" and "Hammerin' Hank" are two of the greatest to play the game, "The Man" is at least their equal. Somehow this fact seems to have escaped the notice of the public at large. Let's try and change that, shall we.

In my mind, there are some things working against Stan. He was more a double hitter than a home run hitter, and fans (with rare exceptions like me) don't care that much about doubles. He also played three seasons in a major leagues depleted of talent by WWII. Stan only missed 1945 due to the war, and none of his peak playing time. Frankly, the stats he posted in 1943 and 1944 are suspect due to the lack of competition. Across town, the Browns were playing a one-armed centerfielder, while the Cardinals went with one of the great hitters of all time? Something wasn't kosher there.

On top of that, Stan didn't set any all-time records. If he had passed Speaker for the doubles record, or Ruth for the runs or RBI records, he'd be at the top of the discussion. No doubt Musial was one of the greatest hitters who ever lived, but he fell just behind the Ruth/Williams/Mays/Aaron lead. Besides, at this point, Bonds is the greatest hitter who ever lived, with or without steroids.

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Shawn Hill's arm problems continue. His elbow is suffering from overuse:

"It's gotten mildly worse, but it's not terrible," Hill said Saturday. "I'll treat it day by day, and they just want to make sure that moving forward we're not pushing through something that should be stopped."

Nationals manager Manny Acta said Hill will seek a second opinion Sunday at Duke University.

"I feel bad for the kid," Acta said. "For the last five years he hasn't been able to pitch a full season in the big leagues or the minor leagues."

Hill missed the entire 2005 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Hill pitches well when he's healthy. He walks few batters, 2.5 per nine since returning from Tommy John surgery. The Nationals can use that kind of control over a full season.

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The Baseball Musings Pledge Drive is off to a good start. On Saturday, seventeen readers donated a total of $720 dollars. Thanks to all, including those who donated anonymously through Amazon.

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The series looking at team pitching rotations using the Marcel the Monkey projections continues with the Toronto Blue Jays. Their starters posted 4.24 ERA in 2007, fourth in the American League.

Note that in figuring ERAs, I'm using Marcel's mIP and mER columns. The ERA listed in the spreadsheet uses the average of mER and bsrER. I wanted to avoid posting 1/2 runs in the table. Pitcher order is taken from the CBSSportsline depth chart.

Marcel predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays top five starters for 2008.

Starter	Innings	ER	ERA
Roy Halladay	195	78	3.60
A.J. Burnett	156	69	3.98
Shaun Marcum	135	64	4.27
Dustin McGowan	139	69	4.47
Jesse Litsch	115	51	3.99
Totals	740	331	4.03

The Blue Jays are very much like the Giants from the previous post. The staff looks very strong, but because many of them are young, they're not predicted to pitch that many innings. Due to his time on the DL the last few years, Burnett doesn't project very high in innings, either. The do have the experienced Gustavo Chacin waiting in the wings to cover those extra starts, and he projects to a 4.61 ERA. This might prove to be the best rotation in the American League if they stay healthy.

I'm a bit wary of the low ERA projected for Litsch. His strike out rate projects at 5.3 per nine innings, pretty near the low end for successful pitchers. He'll need the Blue Jays defenders on their toes to achieve an ERA below 4.00.

Previous posts in this series:

• San Diego Padres
• Cleveland Indians
• Chicago Cubs
• Boston Red Sox
• LAnaheim Angels
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants

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Two great quotes from Brian Cashman in one paragraph:

"Brett Gardner is not your typical Yankee-profile type of player,'' he said.

"We're trying to break that profile to some degree because there's more to this game than hitting for power.

"We think he could be a Juan Pierre who takes a walk. Here's a guy who can steal bases; he can get on base; he plays the short game. We need athleticism like that, especially when you have a bunch of these old farts filling the roster out. Those young burst-of-energy, athletic guys really stand out on a team like ours.''

Juan Pierre who takes a walk. Wouldn't that be Tim Raines or Rickey Henderson?

Bunch of old farts. It was a little over ten years ago that I realized I was an old fart. I was in Cleveland for the World Series with ESPN, and most of the production team was out at a club at The Flats. I was trying to have a conversation with the other person from our group in their 30s, and we both decided the music was too loud. Since it didn't seem to bother any one in their 20s, we came to the conclusion we were old farts, and have called each other that ever since.

It's good to see Cashman putting his players on notice. It seems to me that the veterans on the Yankees aren't being treated with kid gloves anymore.

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Ryan Church and Marlon Anderson just had a nasty collision in the Dodgers-Mets game. There was a shallow pop up to right. Church ran in, Marlon ran out, and two got to the ball at the same time. Church called the ball late, Anderson tried to stop but the two hit each other and were on the ground for a few minutes. Church is being helped off the field with one arm over Randolph's shoulder and the other around a trainer. Anderson is leaving under his own power.

Update: Church has a concussion.

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Redleg Nation notices a nice story about Jay Bruce.

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Carlos Delgado returned to New York for an MRI on his troublesome hip:

Omar Minaya doesn't seem concerned, but it's early. The Mets have some temporary options, but if this guy goes down for a month or two, they'll have problems.

Maybe they can get a spare first baseman from the Yankees. :-)

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With Alex Gonzalez going down with a broken knee, Paul Janish gets a chance to start for the Reds:

So far, so good for the 25-year-old former shortstop for the Dayton Dragons. With Alex Gonzalez bogged under a fractured left knee for at least three weeks, Janish is getting early playing time, and his flashy glove is blinding the eyes of manager Dusty Baker right through his sunglasses.

"I guess that's a plus that good thoughts are in his mind when my name is brought up," Janish said when told of Baker's attention.

Janish's fielding always has been big-league caliber, but many wonder if he'll hit major-league pitching. Baker, though, noted that Janish has worked hard to sharpen his bat work.

Janish showed a good eye for the strike zone in the minor leagues, posting a .355 OBA despite a .263 batting average. He has no pop, but a slick fielding shortstop who can get on base decently is a valuable player.

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The AP published snippets of Barry Bonds's grand jury testimony. The Smoking Gun has the PDF of the full testimony.

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Capitol Punishment cites another reason to love Manny Acta. It's like he grew up reading Bill James and Baseball Prospectus. If and when this team starts spending money on players, Manny is going to be very tough to beat. Is he this generations Davey Johnson?

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Masa Kobayashi experience some bad luck in his first spring game for Cleveland:

A liner off Andy Marte's glove put one runner on. Houston loaded the bases on a slow roller to right and a well-placed infield grounder.

Kobayashi, who said he wanted to be a "little bit nervous" to sharpen his focus, got his wish. He also got the next three Houston hitters in order without allowing a run.

A foul pop. A fly to short center. A strikeout on his best pitch, a slider.

"I thought he threw the ball well," manager Eric Wedge said after the 4-3 loss to the Astros. "He didn't have a great deal of luck out there. It was pretty impressive as far as getting into that situation and then pitching out of it."

He probably got the resulted he wanted on five of the six batters. It just that balls in play can find holes.

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WasWatching is now part of the SNY Sports-Blog Network, joining MetsBlog.com. Congratulations, Steve!

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