Tim Malcolm argues that the Phillies should wait on Chase Utley until his hip is healed. His reasoning is poor, however:

One thing the Phillies have proved is April isn't as important as August in the marathon of baseball.

Tell that to the 1982 Dodgers or the 1984 American League East. Most years, it's okay to go 11-11 in April, but what if another team goes 17-5? That's a big hole for early in the season. Fans should not depend on their team being able to turn on the wins late. Past performance in no indicator of future returns.

It seems most of the country think the Yankees are going to win the AL East this year.

The Big Lead notices some NL East trash talk:

"I don't think it affects us much," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. insisted yesterday at the winter meetings at the posh Bellagio. "They've had Billy Wagner, and we still beat them the last 2 years in our division."

It's one thing to own a great closer. It's another to get that lead to the ninth inning.

Update: In a similar vein, this made me chuckle.

The veterans turned in the big plays tonight. Ken Griffey made a superb throw to cut down the Twins only chance for a run at the plate, and Jim Thome lauched a ball over everything in centerfield for the only run of the game. Two of the great home run hitters getting the job done with the bat and the glove.

John Danks showed why he's the ace of the White Sox staff. He pitched efficiently, throwing just 103 pitches over eight innings. He kept the Twins off balance, allowing just two hits and three walks. It's unfortunate that he'll only get one start in the ALDS.

We now have two chances for local World Series with the Chicago and LA teams all in the playoffs. The Cubs and White Sox met in the World Series in 1906.

The Twins have three outs to score at least one run. It's piranha time.

Update: Jenks comes on to pitch. Kubel pinch hits and leads off.

Update: Kubel strikes out swinging. Span is up.

Update: Span grounds out to Swisher at first. It's up to Alexi Casilla. He flares one to center, and Anderson makes a diving catch to end the game. The White Sox win 1-0!

Harris picks up a one-out single in the eighth, but Punto grounds into a double play to end the inning. That's the third double play turned by the White Sox this game, but the first GDP.

The Twins and White Sox just reached the seventh inning stretch. Chicago collected two hits so far and the Twins one. Danks is at 93 pitches, Blackburn at 71. With no score, it looks like the bullpens won't be needed much tonight unless the game goes into extra innings.

Update: Harold Reynolds makes the "hats off" reference, and Jim Thome goes deep, hitting the ball out beyond the centerfield fence. The White Sox take a 1-0 lead.

Update: Back in 1997 or 1998, Baseball Tonight was down at Disney World during spring training, broadcasting from the ESPN Club. Jim Thome was a guest on the show one night, and was supposed to get a Baseball Tonight cap. For some reason, he didn't get it, or lost it, so whenever he did something good from then on, Karl Ravech would say, "Hats off to Jim Thome."

Update: Griffey doubles, the Twins walk Alexei Ramirez, and that's it for Blackburn. He pitches a great game, but won't get the win due to a better peformance by Danks.

Update: That's all the White Sox get. They are now six outs away from a trip to play the Rays.

Through three innings, the Twins have yet to collect a hit off John Danks. He's walked two and struck out two. The game is still scoreless going to the bottom of the third.

Update: Danks retires the Twins 1-2-3 in the fourth, striking out Mauer again. He's down to .329.

Update: Michael Cuddyer leads off the fifth with a double. The Twins get three shots at driving in the first run.

Update: Cuddyer gets to third with one out and tries to score on a fly ball to shallow centerfield. Griffey throws him out easily with a nice block of the plate by Pierzynski. The game remains scoreless.

John Danks walks the leadoff hitter, but a line drive on a hit and run erases him in a double play. Mauer strikes out to end the inning, but his BA stays at .330.

Update: Blackburn gives up a leadoff single, but gets Wise to ground into a reverse force GDP. No score after one.

Sunday afternoon turned out to be a great one for baseball. The Extra Innings package worked out great as I was able to monitor all four important games on the mix channel, and flip to the one with the most action at the moment. The two NL games went down to the wire, and the two AL games were competitive until the late innings. There were a number of great pitching performances, most notably Sabathia's complete game. That was made possible by Dale Sveum allowing CC to bat with the score tied at one in the bottom of the eighth. He made the first out, but the Brewers put two runs on the board anyway. We saw joy in Milwaukee, tragedy in New York, and Minnesota and Chicago keeping the season alive. We get to see it all, thanks to technology.

Joe Mauer triples in two runs to give the Twins a 6-0 lead in the bottom of the eighth. The two for five day keeps his batting average at .330. Pedroia is 2 for 3 in the Red Sox game, his average sitting at .327. If the Twins need to playoff for the division on Tuesday, the game counts toward regular season stats, so the batting title may not be settled today, depending on Pedroia's performance in the night-cap.

Update: Pedroia is now 2 for 4, hitting .326.

Update: Joe Nathan gets three outs in the ninth and the Twins win 6-0. Scott Baker pitches brilliantly, allowing four hits and one walk over seven innings while striking out nine. He lowers his ERA to 3.45, which should put him in the top ten for ERA.

The win puts the pressure on the White Sox. If Chicago loses tomorrow, the Twins fly to Tampa Bay. Otherwise, they travel to Chicago to settle the AL Central.

The Mets bullpen holds the Marlins in the ninth. The teams go to the bottom of the inning, New York needing two runs to keep their season alive. Wright, Chavez and the pitcher are scheduled to bat.

Update: David Wright pops out to second for the first out.

Update: Chavez hits a comebacker to the pitcher, but Easley pinch hits and walks. That brings up Church, who hits one deep to center. It's caught, however, and the Mets lose 4-2. The crowd watches the Marlins celebrate on the field, but New York disappoints once again.

The Yankees are winning game one of their double header, and if they win game two, the team from the Bronx will end up with a better record than the Mets. So much for winning the back pages.

Congratulations to the Brewers on their wild card win. The move to Sveum worked, and the bigger move, acquiring Sabathia worked great. It will be a sad closing ceremony coming up to close Shea.

There will be baseball on Monday. The White Sox defeat the Indians 5-1 behind a fine pitching performance by Mark Buehrle. He goes seven innings, giving up nine hits but just one run on the Peralta homer. They'll play Detroit tomorrow, and possibly the Twins on Tuesday for the division.

Update: It just became more likely the White Sox will need to win tomorrow's game. Delmon Young just drove in two runs with a bases loaded single to give the Twins a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the seventh.

Update: The Monday game is scheduled for 1:05 PM CDT in Chicago.

CC starts the inning against Alfonso Soriano.

Update: Soriano flies to left. Ryan Theriot is next.

Update: Theriot singles to center to bring up Derrek Lee.

Update: Lee grounds into a 4-6-3 double play, and the Brewers win! It's his seventh complete game with the Brewers and tenth of the season. Milwaukee will fly either to Philadelphia or New York next. The Mets have two on with two out for Carlos Delgado in the bottom of the eighth.

Update: Delgado drives a ball to the warning track in left, but it's caught for the third out. The Mets have one more turn at bat to keep themselves in the playoffs.

Wes Helms pinch hits to get a right-handed bat against Scott Schoeneweis and Helms takes him deep over the leftfield wall. That was the only batter for Scott, and he leaves to boos. The Brewers are coming to bat in the bottom of the eighth with a chance to win the Wild Card by taking the lead.

Update: Amazingly, the Brewers let Sabathia bat. I guess they really don't trust their bullpen.

Update: Luis Ayala gives up a home run to Dan Uggla and the Marlins take a 4-2 lead on the Mets. As I type this, Ryan Braun hits a two-run homer for the Brewers, and they're up 3-1! A two game turnaround.

Update: Fielder strikes out to end the inning, and CC Sabathia is coming out to cement the win. He's allowed three hits, one unearned run, one walk and struck out seven through eight innings. If he wins this game, I suspect the Brewers will break the bank to keep him next season.

With men on second and third in the bottom of the seventh, Jermaine Dye bloops a two-out single into center, scoring both runners. Chicago opens up a 5-1 lead on Cleveland. A win by the White Sox forces a makeup game with Detroit Monday.

Ray Durham leads off the bottom of the seventh with a double for the Brewers. It's their first hit since the first inning.

Update: Braun hits a ball to Casey McGehee behind the third base bag. Casey can't look Durham back, and Ray advances to third on the throw to first. Fielder needs to send a ball deep or get a base hit to score Durham from third with one out. After falling behind 2-0, the Cubs walk Prince.

Update: Michael Wuertz comes into the game and walks J.J. Hardy on four pitches to load the bases with one out. Meanwhile, in New York, Jorge Cantu smacks a 3-1 pitch deep into left, and Chavez makes a great catch to end the innings and keep the Marlins/Mets game tied at two.

Update: Corey Hart goes down on three sliders from Wuertz as he strikes out with the bases loaded. It's up to Counsell.

Update: Counsell walks with the bases loaded, and the Brewers and Cubs are tied at one. Jason Kendall is up to try to give the Brewers the lead.

Update: Kendall grounds out, and the Brewers finish the seventh tied at one. The Marlins and Mets remain tied at two.

Robinson Canel pinch hits for Joe Smith and draws a leadoff walk in the bottom of the sixth. One out later, Carlos Beltran hits a home run into the leftfield bleachers and the Marlins and Mets are tied at two. That puts some pressure on the Brewers, who still trail 1-0 in the seventh.

Two Royals errors in the third lead to another Minnesota runs. The Twins lead 2-0 in the fourth.

Joe Mauer is 0-2, his BA down to .328. Pedroia is 1 for 1 at .326.

After five scoreless innings, the Marlins score the first run of the game. John Baker, the rookie catcher, continues his great first impression with an RBI single. The Marlins lead 1-0 and have the bases loaded with one out. Oliver Perez is done.

Update: Joe Smith walks in a run, giving Willingham a free pass. New York goes down 2-0. The Brewers are behind 1-0 in the sixth. Both teams have just one hit.

Update: That's all the Marlins get. The Mets have four turns at bat to score two runs.

Denard Span doubles down the leftfield line to plate the first run of the Royals/Twins game and put runners on second and third with two out. That's only Denard's seventh extra-base hit of September.

Paul Konerko homers to tie the Indians at one. The White Sox offense keeps up the pressure, loading the bases with one out in the bottom of the second.

That's Paul's ninth home run of September, and his 22nd on the year. He's done a good job of trying to make up for the loss of power from the Quentin injury.

Update: Uribe hits a ball to Jamey Carroll at third base. It looks like an easy double play, but Carroll boots the ball and everyone is safe. The White Sox take a 2-1 lead.

Update: The error sets up an Orlando Cabrera sacrifice fly, and the White Sox lead 3-1.

Micah Hoffpauir reaches on an error by Prince Fielder, moving Aramis Ramirez to third. He scores on a grounder by Cedeno, and Chicago takes a 1-0 lead over the Brewers.

The first score in any of the big four games goes to Jhonny Peralta, who homers in the top of the second to give Cleveland a 1-0 lead over the White Sox. If Peralta can homer again in the game, he'll tie his career high of 24 home runs.

The White Sox lose 12-6, setting up for important games on Sunday. If the White Sox win in the afternoon, they play on Monday, regardless of the outcome of the Twins game. If the Twins win and the White Sox lose, then the division belongs to Minnesota. If the Mets and Brewers reach the same outcome, there's a playoff at Shea on Monday. It should be a lot of fun, especially with CC Sabathia single handedly trying to bring back the four man rotation.

The Royals continue their winning September ways with a 4-2 victory over the Twins. Despite issuing seven free passes (four by the bullpen), Gil Meche and the Royals relievers allowed just two runs, holding the Twins to 3 for 13 with runners in scoring position. It seems the sweep of Chicago took a lot out of the Twins.

The loss drops the Twins into a tie with the White Sox, but one game down in the AFLIC. If Chicago can pull off a victory against the Indians tonight, then the White Sox just need to win their last two games to earn a division title. Cleveland and Chicago are tied at one in the third.

Update: Asdrubal Cabrera hits a bases loaded double in the fifth to put the Indians up 4-1. After an intentional walk to Sizemore, Jamey Carroll doubles down the rightfield line to drive in two more and chase Javier Vazquez from the game. Choo adds a single against Clayton Richard and the Indians are still batting leading 7-1.

Update: The White Sox starters, in their last five games, allowed 26 runs, all earned in 25 innings. They've walked nine, which isn't horrible, but allowed 38 hits.

The Brewers fall 7-3 to the Cubs, dropping Milwaukee into a tie with the Mets for the NL Wild Card. If the teams manage the same result tomorrow, a playoff game takes place at Shea Stadium on Monday, which would be the last regular season game at the ballpark. So all those people who believe they hold tickets for the last regular season game at Shea may be wrong.

Brad Lidge teetered on the ledge, but induced Ryan Zimmerman to hit into a double play as the Phillies win the NL East. Brad allowed three hits and a walk, but nothing long as the Nationals could only turn those into one run. That was enough to earn the Phillies a 4-3 victory and an NL East championship for the second year in a row.

Congratulations to the Phillies. They blew a large lead over the Mets early in the season, but held on at the end to take first place. They will either play the Brewers or the Dodgers in the NLDS. They went 5-1 against Milwaukee, posting an ERA below three, but 4-4 against the Dodgers, sweeping them the last time the teams met in Philadelphia.

Ted Lilly is helping the Mets this afternoon as he just finished six no-hit innings. The Cubs lead the Brewers 4-0. Ted walked just one batter, and one reached via an error. This could be the second Cubs no-hitter at Miller Park this month, and only one of them would be against the Brewers!

Update: The Brewers picked up two hits and one run in the bottom of the seventh. The Cubs lead 4-1 in the top of the eighth.

Sunday's goodbye to Shea Stadium revolves around a meaningful game. Johan Santana pitches a shutout against the Marlins on just three days rest. He gives up a double in the ninth, sandwiched between too strikeouts. A scary fly ball to the warning track in right ended the game, and the Mets live to play another day. Milwaukee's magic number for the Wild Card remains at two. The Mets play at 1:10 tomorrow, with the Brewers starting an hour later.

Santana finished with three hits and three walks allowed. He struck out nine batters and finishes with a 2.53 ERA, the best in the National League. That performance will stick in the minds of Cy Young voters as they cast their ballots next week.

Both the White Sox and Twins lose, Chicago falling 11-8 to Cleveland and the Twins getting mashed 8-1 by the Royals. Danks pitched poorly, allowing seven and seven runs in four innings of work, including home runs by Francisco and Garko. Liriano pitched poorly as well. Not a good night for young aces.

The teams remain separated by 1/2 game, which is great if you want extra days of baseball. A 1/2 game separation means Chicago plays on Monday with a possible one-game playoff on Tuesday.

Rickie Weeks comes in as a defensive replacement for Ray Durham, then hits a three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh to put Milwaukee up 5-1. The Mets are down 6-1 in the bottom of the ninth.

Update: The Mets lose 6-1. The only run they scored was unearned. Chris Volstad goes six innings and lowers his ERA to 2.88. The Phillies magic number for the division is down to one, and the Mets are in danger of falling a game behind in the Wild Card race.

Update: Milwaukee wins 5-1 and the Mets are in a bit of a pickle. They need help to reach the playoffs.

The Tampa Bay Rays fail in their second attempt to clinch the AL East, falling to Detroit 6-4. Gary Sheffield hit two home runs, bringing his career total to 499. I wonder if he retires if he reaches 500? He'd be giving up a lot of money.

The Red Sox are losing to the Yankees 13-4 in the top of the fifth. The game is not official yet, so if they call it, all those runs get erased. If they can get through the bottom of the fifth, then there is a good chance Tampa Bay clinches anyway.

Corey Hart dumps a single into left with two outs, scoring Durham from second base. The Brewers take a 2-1 lead and makes the Mets a little more nervous. This isn't just a race for the wild card, both managers are fighting to keep their jobs next season.

The Phillies defeat the Nationals 8-4. The bullpen pitches another strong outing, allowing no runs, no walks and one hit while striking out five in three innings. That reduces the Phillies magic number to two. The Mets are losing 5-1 in the top of the eighth, so that could come down to one.

The Cubs started the first string against the Brewers tonight. Good for them.

Francisco Liriano comes out after 4 1/3 innings and a Billy Butler two-run homer. He struck out five and walked just one, but 11 of the 18 batters who put the ball in play wound up with hits. Liriano also threw two wild pitches. Once again, the Twins are down big, 6-0. Can they manage a comeback two nights in a row?

Meanwhile, Kyle Davies has struck out six without a walk through four innings. He's earning himself a place in the 2009 Royals rotation with his September performance.

The Phillies don't waste any time, jumping out to a 7-1 lead over the Nationals. Balester only lasts 1 2/3 innings, giving up a home run to Ryan Howard. It looked like no one would reach 50 homers this season, but Ryan is going to come real close. Ryan also hit a double and picked up four RBI, and Chase Utley knocked out a double and a single, knocking in the other three runs. The two have combined to drive in 250 runs this season.

James Crabtree writes:

Last night I heard Drayton McLane sit in for an inning on the Astros radio broadcast with Milo Hamilton. He spent much of the time talking about how great the wild card is and how it has created excitement in Houston this year. What he and Milo Hamilton failed to realize is that if NOT for the three divisions and the wild card Houston would be in first place in the old NL West (even if Arizona was added into it) with a tight race against the Dodgers in the last weekend of the season. It would be almost like 1980 again. As it stand now however Houston would have to pull off a miracle to see the post season. I honestly think McLane doesn't realize the Astros would be in first in the old NL West.

While this is true, MLB will never go back to eight team league or division again. Small divisions create a higher probability of different teams making the playoffs and the World Series every year. That's good for the growth of the game. So it strikes me that the creation of three division and the wild card outweighs the occasional lack of a playoff spot under the old system.

They were rocking in the Metrodome last night:

When the Twins tied the game in the eighth inning Thursday, it was louder in the Dome that it was for any of the playoff games I've covered there. People weren't just clapping, they were screaming their heads off and jumping like crazy.

When Denard Span's triple scored Carlos Gomez, we saw trash being thrown in the air. It was truly unbelievable. My adrenaline was pumping pretty good, and it was hard to remain focused.

Since the creation of the Wild Card, the possibility existed for a first place team to game the system to force a certain matchup in the first round of the playoffs. This rears its ugly head this weekend. The Cubs play the Brewers in the final series of the season, Milwaukee tied with the Mets for the NL Wild Card lead. If the Brewers win the WC, Chicago hosts the Los Angeles Dodgers (of Los Angeles) in the first round. If the Brewers finish behind the Mets and Phillies, the Cubs host one of those two teams in the NLDS.

Which would you rather face?

Team	Runs/Game	NL Rank
Cubs	5.35	1
Mets	4.99	2
Phillies	4.90	3
Dodgers	4.35	12

Since the Dodgers acquired Manny, they rank fifth in the NL in runs scored at 4.75, while the Cubs and Mets still rank 1-2. One can also argue that the Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball, going 18-6 since Aug. 30, 2008, the best record in the majors. That, however, was against the NL West and the Pittsburgh Pirates. This was the same team swept by the Phillies and the Nationals prior to the streak starting.

There are good reasons for the Cubs laying down this weekend, including a trip to warm and sunny LA rather than the cold and rainy northeast. Lou Piniella even gave himself some cover last night, starting the second string against the Mets. Even though it's not right, I believe it's in the best interest of the Cubs to help the Brewers into the playoffs, giving the Cubs the weakest first round opponent. We'll see if Lou is thinking the same thing by the lineups he puts on the field this weekend.

(My gut says Lou plays hard against the Brewers. He's too much of a competitor to slack off. Even his scrubs almost beat the Mets Thursday night.)

Update: Balls, Sticks and Stuff is upset Lou didn't play the first string Thursday night.

Bugs and Cranks writes on the Twins comeback Thursday night.

The weather situation in the northeast brought the NL East race to the Weather Channel this morning. For Philadelphia, there is a 50% chance of rain Friday and Sunday, and 60% on Saturday. In New York, it will be a soggy closing of Shea with a 60% chance of rain Friday and Sunday, and a 90% chance on Saturday.

The Mets and Phillies both play afternoon games on Saturday, so have a lot of time to wait for the rain to clear to see if they can play five innings.

Down 6-1 in the middle of the fourth, the Twins fight back to tie the White Sox at six and send the game into extra innings. Span and Mauer picked up three hits each and Gomez collected four, a homer short of the cycle (he has two triples in the game). The Minnesota bullpen has not allowed a run in relief of Kevin Slowey, who lasted just 3 2/3 innings. The White Sox were a bit more efficient in their scoring, picking up their six runs on just seven hits, while the Twins needed 14.

Update: Nick Punto walks, goes to second on a grounder, to third on a wild pitch, the Alexei Casilla singles off Bobby Jenks and the Twins win 7-6. They move into first place in the AL Central by 1/2 game, even with the White Sox in the loss column. They just need to play Chicago even over the next three games, then see if the White Sox can win the makeup on Monday.

Ryan Braun hits a grand slam in the bottom of the tenth and the Brewers walk off with a 5-1 win over the Pirates. That keeps them tied with the Mets and gives us a decent chance at a three-way tie come Monday morning. The Brewers celebrated like they just won the pennant.

Yovani Gallardo pitched four good innings in his return, walking two and striking out seven. He'd be an excellent long man out of the pen in the playoffs, should the Brewers earn a wild card berth.

Update: Just did a quick calculation, and based on each team having a 50% chance of winning each game (a simplifying assumption), the chance of a three-way tie is about 7.5%.

The Mets and Cubs are tied at six in the bottom of the ninth, the Brewers and Pirates are tied at one in the bottom of the eighth. These teams certainly like keeping fans on the edge of their seats.

Update: With Reyes on first after a leadoff single, Dan Murphy tries to bunt and fouls off strike three.

Update: Micah Hoffpauir picked up two home runs and five hits tonight, but Carlos Beltran nearly took his glove off as he lines a shot past the rookie first baseman, driving in the winning run. The Mets gain 1/2 game on the Phillies, going into the weekend one game out of the division lead.

It looks like the Dodgers won't need a win tonight. The Diamondbacks are down 10-3 to the Cardinals going to the bottom of the eighth. I'm sure the Los Angeles players are sitting around the clubhouse television enjoying their trip to the playoffs unfold before their eyes.

Update: The Diamondbacks fall 12-3, their run at the playoffs ending in a whimper. When they had a chance to hang with Los Angeles, they lose three in a row to St. Louis by a combined score of 23-9. After a lucky 2007 and a great start to 2008, they just couldn't maintain their offense. At the end, the bullpen went, and they could score enough runs to win. What a disappointing performance.

Congratulations to the Dodgers, NL West champs! They certainly look like the hot team going into the playoffs, and unlike the Phillies, Mets and Brewers, they get to rest and set up their rotation for the five game NLDS.

Scott Kazmir gave up six hits in five innings while walking two and striking out eight. That should be such a bad line, but four of the six hits left the ballpark. Scott gives up four solo home runs, giving him 23 allowed on the season. All four were solo shots; because he does allow a low OBA, 18 of his 23 home runs allowed came with no one on. Think Curt Schilling in 2001 without as many innings.

The Rays fall 7-5, but a Boston loss still gives them the division.

Sox Machine wants the White Sox to fight piranhas with piranhas:

Carlos Quentin's wrist injury wasn't supposed to mean this much. Granted, he would've been a shoo-in for MVP had he not overreacted to missing a Cliff Lee fastball, but with Dye and Jim Thome holding their own, Nick Swisher coming off an acceptable August and Paul Konerko beginning to come around, the biggest question was supposed to be the bullpen.

That's not the case, and the Sox's attack is a shell of what it was just a month and a half ago. It seems like much longer than that.

Nevertheless, I have a solution for tonight - but the Sox will have to act quickly. Ladies and gentlemen, two words:

Jason. Tyner.

That's pretty funny. The piranhas on the Twins actually can hit. That helps.

The Dodgers clinched a tie for the NL West as the Diamondback fell to the Cardinals 4-2 and the Dodgers defeated the Padres 12-4. The Boston connection was in full swing again as Manny Ramirez and Nomar Garciaparra both homered and drove in two runs. Three other Dodgers drove in two runs as the whole team let loose on San Diego's pitching.

I'm still a bit shocked at the fall of the Diamondbacks. This was a young team that should have improved. In April, it certainly looked like that happened. With the addition of Dan Haren, the offense didn't need to be great, just better. They scored 5.9 runs per game in April, but are finishing the season at 4.4 runs per game for the year. They kept drawing walks, but the hits stopped coming, and the power waned. Adam Dunn just wasn't enough to save the offense. Ned Colletti out-maneuvered Josh Byrnes.

The Twins win game two of their series with the White Sox, cutting Chicago's lead to 1/2 game in the AL Central. The final was 3-2, giving the Twins a 4-1 record in one and two run games in the head-to-head series this season.

The Minnesota bullpen did a great job in relief. Nick Blackburn lasted just five innings, giving up eight hits. The Twins relievers did not strike out a batter, but gave up just one hit and one walk as they kept Chicago off the board the rest of the way.

This makes tomorrow night's game a must win for both teams. If Chicago wins, they control their own destiny. If they lose, the makeup game Monday looms large in deciding the division.

Correction: It was Blackburn, not Baker.

CC Sabathia, pitching in short rest, pitches another great game against the Pirates. He allows four hits over seven innings while striking out 11. He's now 10-2 since joining the Brewers, giving the team more than their money's worth.

They gain a game on the Phillies, and may gain a game on the Mets if the Cubs win. That would put them in a tie for the wild card lead.

Tied at six, Dan Murphy of the Mets leads off the bottom of the ninth with a triple against the Cubs. Bobby Howry strikes out David Wright, intentionally walks Delgado and Beltran to load the bases, then gets Church to ground into a force at the plate. That brings Castro to the plate, and he goes down swinging to send the game to the tenth. The Mets had a runner at third with no outs in each of the last three innings, and only pushes across one run.

The Los Angeles Dodgers moved much closer to wrapping up the NL West Tuesday night with a 10-1 drubbing of the San Diego Padres. With 82 wins, the Dodgers are now guaranteed to finish over .500, preventing our seeing a sub-.500 playoff team. Coupled with the Arziona loss, the Dodgers magic number is down to three with five games to play.

Manny Ramirez hit a double and drove in two runs, giving him 30 extra-base hits and 51 RBI in 49 games with the Dodgers. That would put him on a pace for 99 extra-base hits over a 162 game season.

The Milwaukee Brewers score three runs over the last two innings and defeat Pittsburgh 7-5. Prince Fielder hit a walk-off two-run homer to end the game and keep Milwaukee one game behind the Mets. We can still get a three-way tie if the Brewers go 5-0, the Mets finish 4-1 and the Phillies split their four remaining games.

The Diamondbacks fall to the Cardinals 7-4. Randy Johnson pitches poorly striking out just one in six innings while allowing five runs. The Dodgers are up 6-1 in the third against the Padres.

The Phillies lose and the Mets win as the lead in the NL East is down to 1 1/2 games. Remember, the Mets hold the tie-breaker against the Phillies, so if the two teams finished tied and ahead of the other wild card contenders, then the Mets win the division and Philadelphia gets the Wild Card.

Kelly Johnson extended his hitting streak with two base knocks tonight and Casey Kotchman hit just his second homer since joining the Braves as Atlanta earns a 3-2 win. Cole Hamels pitched well, but the Phillies just couldn't put together a big rally against Mike Hampton.

Johan Santana pitched eight strong innngs, walking two and striking out 10 as the Mets beat the Cubs 6-2. Johan picks up his 15th win, his fifth straight year reaching that level. Pedro Feliciano gave the Mets fan a scare in the ninth, allowing two hits, but Ayala came on for the last two outs and the save.

The Brewers are losing to the Pirates 3-2 in the bottom of the seventh.

Update: Mike Cameron doubles in two in the bottom of the seventh and the Brewers take a 4-3 lead.

Update: The Pirates get the two runs back in the eighth. Steve Pearce homers for the lead.

Victor Martinez pops out to Alex Cora and the Red Sox win 5-4, sending them to the playoffs with a chance to defend their World Championship. Papelbon records four outs, striking out two to record his 41st save. There will be no drama when the Yankees come to Boston this weekend.

Congratulations to the Red Sox on another great season. They needed to overcome lengty injuries to Curt Schilling, Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew and David Ortiz. Matsuzaka and Beckett were unavailable for shorter periods of time. Of course, the whole Manny Ramirez situation served as a major distraction. Still, the team kept winning, thanks to the deep squad assembled by the Boston front office. At the moment, it looks like they'll be playing the Angels in the first round, which should be a great series.

The Twins scored two more runs so far in the bottom of the fourth. They use a triple, double, advance on a fly ball and a squeeze play that ends up as a base hit for the two runs. Minnesota takes a 4-1 lead on the White Sox in a must win game.

Punto just stole second. They need a walk, homer and hit by pitch.

Update: Carlos Gomez hits a traditional single that takes its time to fall, giving Punto plenty of time to score from second. The Twins are up 5-1, and the Metrodome is rocking.

The White Sox score first. Thome and Konerko single and a double play plates Jim. That prevents a big inning, but the Twins find themselves in a hole.

Update: Jason Kubel draws second blood as the Minnesota DH hits a two-run homer and the Twins lead 2-1.

The Diamondbacks gain ground the more traditional way, defeating the Cardinals while the Dodgers take the night off. That leaves them two games back with six to play. Stephen Drew cycled against the Cardinals earlier in the season, and tonight he picked up the single, double and triple. In four game against St. Louis this season, Drew collected eight extra base hits.

Webb picks up his 22nd win. That gives him 40 over the last two seasons. Arizona still needs some help, but they've finally stopped making it easy for the Dodgers.

I didn't think this was possible. The Brewers came into tonight's action 1 1/2 games behind the Mets in the NL Wild Card race, but two games down in the AFILC. The Mets lose to the Cubs 9-5, and low and behold the Brewers are one game back, and one game back in the AFILC. Some how, some way, they made up a loss. I'm boing to need to ponder this for a while.

I suppose they should send the Cubs a thank-you note, as should the Phillies. Philadelphia's magic number is down to four.

The Red Sox fail to clinch as Jed Lowrie strikes out with men on second and third in the bottom of the ninth. The Red Sox out hit the Indians 12-8 and out walked them 5-2. They even went 3 for 9 with runners in scoring position. The timing of their hits was just off, and the umpire carom cost them the game. The Rays magic number for the division drops to four, and the Yankees get to live another day, hoping it can last until they reach Boston.

Correction: Fixed magic number.

The Rays defeat the Orioles 4-2 to reduce their magic number for clinching the division to five. The middle infielders for Tampa did all the damage and Iwamura and Barlett picked up the only three hits in the game for the Rays and drove in three runs. Tampa did draw eight walks.

David Price pitched decently in his first start, allowing two runs, one earned in 5 1/3 innings. His most impressive stat of the night was throwing 60 of 88 pitches for strikes.

Correction: Fixed magic number.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Jon Weisman reflects on the margin of victory.

Rich Aurilia comes through in the top of the 11th with the third single of the frame as the Giants prevent the Dodgers from lowering their magic number with a 1-0 victory. The Giants bullpen pitched five perfect innings in relief. The starter, Matt Cain, avoided Manny Ramirez by walking him three times. It seemed to work. The Dodgers lead is down to 2 1/2 games.

Correction: It was the Giants bullpen, not the Dodgers.

The Phillies down the Marlins 5-2, moving 1 1/2 games ahead of the Mets in the NL East and pretty much dashing the Marlins hopes of a playoff berth. The Phillies got off to a 3-0 lead, but Florida fought back to make it 3-2 after seven. Gregg Dobbs injured himself in that inning, so Pedro Feliz took over. Feliz then delivered a two-run homer in the eighth to cement the victory.

Jamie Moyer continued his mastery of the Marlins, giving up one run in six innings of work. He finishes his season against Florida with a 4-1 record and a 2.81 ERA.

The Mets hold the tie-breaker in the division, so the Phillies magic number is down to six.

The Twins and White Sox get well pitched games out of Liriano and Danks today as Minnesota downs Tampa Bay 4-1 and the White Sox shutout Kansas City 3-0. This sets up an AL Central showdown starting Tuesday in Minnesota. The White Sox send Vazquez, Buehrle and Floyd against Baker, Blackburn and Slowey. The Twins need a sweep. That could trigger Chicago playing four teams in four days. If the teams are separated by 1/2 game at the end of the regular season, then Chicago makes up a game against Detroit on Monday. If that game results in a Chicago/Minnesota tie, a one game playoff takes place on Tuesday. If Chicago wins that one, they may start the playoffs on Wednesday, all after having finished the season against Cleveland.

Scott Schoeneweis gives up a double and a check-swing single in the bottom of the eighth inning, allowing the Braves to tie the Mets at four. It's another blown save for the Mets bullpen. New York got off to a 4-0 lead early as Parr had nothing for the Braves, but Atlanta's bullpen has shut them down the rest of the way. The Braves are still batting as Joe Smith tries to stop the bleeding.

Update: Smith gives up an RBI triple to Jeff Francoeur (after a stolen base). The Braves lead 5-4.

Update: The Mets are giving hope to the Brewers. Milwaukee stomped the Reds 8-1 today. Fielder hit a home run and a double, driving in three, while the bullpen pitched 5 2/3 shutout innings in relief of Seth McClung. If the Braves hold on, the Brewers will move to 1 1/2 games behind the Mets.

Update: Martin Prado hits a bases double down the rightfield line and the Braves score two more. The former team from Milwaukee keeps helping the current team from Wisconsin.

Update: The Mets get out of the inning, but the Braves bullpen gets an easy to defend three-run lead in the ninth.

Update: Wright walks and Delgado blasts a home run to cut the Braves lead to 7-6. The Mets still have two outs to score one run.

Update: Mike Gonzalez strikes out Beltran and Easley as the Mets go down 7-6. The Brewers and Astros already won, so the we just need to wait for the Phillies/Marlins result to see how interesting this last week of play will be.

The Red Sox defeat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-0, knocking the Blue Jays out of the playoff picture and leaving the AL Central the only hope for the Twins. If the Yankees lose tonight, Boston goes to the post season.

The Red Sox won with their big three pitchers each performing up to snuff. Daisuke Matsuzaka allowed just two hits, and more importantly, just two walks over seven innings. Hideki Okajima pitched a perfect eighth and Papelbon allowed just a single in the ninth. Beckett and Lester are also capable of stellar seven inning performances, which makes the Red Sox a dangerous post-season team.

The White Sox fall to the Royals 5-2 as Kyle Davies pitches seven strong innings against Chicago. Davies allowed three hits and one walk. He tried pitching in the eighth, but gave up a walk and a Thome home run for the only Chicago runs in the game. Kila Ka'aihue hit his first major league home run as part of a three-home attack by the Royals. David DeJesus's was a long run as his homer was of the inside the park variety.

While I'm sure this won't console Yankees fans, given the poor play of the White Sox and Twins, it's possible that New York finishes with the fourth best record in the AL but doesn't make the playoffs.

Stephen Drew just hit a two-run homer off Brian Fuentes that just barely reached the seats in rightfield near the line. It's only the third home run Fuentes allowed this year, two of them coming this month. The long ball gives the DBacks a 5-3 lead. The Dodgers are losing 1-0 in the third, so there's a chance Arizona can cut the Dodgers' lead to 2 1/2 games.

Update: Chad Qualls gives up a walk and a hit, but holds on to keep the Rockies off the board and the Diamondbacks win 5-3. The Giants take a 2-0 lead in the top of third against the Dodgers, but Manny just hit a three-run homer to Los Angeles on top. The opposite field shot down the rightfield line was the 15th Manny hit with the Dodgers. The three RBI give him 47 in 47 games since moving to Los Angeles.

Brad Lidge picks up this 39th save without a failure and the Phillies defeat the Marlins 3-2. That moves them ahead of the Mets into first place in the NL East. New York, however, still holds a 2 1/2 game lead over the Brewers for the wild card. The Marlins win streak ends at nine, although it appears a bad call cost them a tie.

The Mets fall to Atlanta 4-2 as Jorge Campillo continues to work his magic against New York. He finishes his season against them with a 2-0 record, giving up six runs, five earned in 17 2/3 innings for a 2.55 ERA. The Brewers don't lose any ground on the Mets, and the Phillies are leading the Marlins 3-2 in the bottom of the eighth. The Marlins almost tied the game on an infielder grounder, but the runner was called out at the plate. While the Marlins broadcasters thought the runner was safe, I couldn't tell from any of the angles they showed.

Update: The Phillies get out of the bottom of the eighth without allowing a run. For the Marlins to win the game now, they may need to hang a blown save on Brad Lidge.

Update: Just watched a stop action replay and Cantu looked safe on the play at the plate. Of course, C.B. Bucknor was the umpire.

Down two runs in the ninth, Rickie Weeks homers to lead off the inning. The Brewers use two outs to load the bases, the Reds keeping the inning alive with a two out error, which was then followed by a Braun walk. That brought Prince Fielder to the plate, the tying run 90 feet away. Fielder struck out. Milwaukee goes down 4-3 and will need help from Atlanta and Florida tonight to stay close to the Mets and Phillies.

The Twins and Rays go to the top of the ninth with Tampa Bay leading 7-0. They are three outs away from clinching their first playoff berth.

Update: Percival is on to close out the game.

Update: Brendan Harris reaches on a ball in the shortstop hole. Bartlett throws wide for an error.

Update: Punto pops out to second. One down.

Update: Harris steals second on a 1-2 pitch in the dirt.

Update: Carlos Gomez takes three straight balls for a walk. Men on first and second, one out.

Update: Denard Span singles to drive in a run and takes second on a bad throw. It's 7-1 and Percival is coming out of the game.

Update: Trever Miller comes in and gets Casilla to ground out (allowing a run) and then Mauer pops out in foul territory to Evan Longoria, and the Rays are going to the playoffs. The final score, 7-2. The Rays extend their lead over the Red Sox to 2 1/2 games and with a week to go their magic number for the division stands at six. They just need a tie with Boston to win the AL East.

I have to say, there was plenty of cowbell today.

Update: One thing I like about the Rays this season was that they never panicked. They suffered through a long losing streak mid season, they struggled on the road at times, but they always came back. Even when Longoria and Crawford went down and thing looked bad, this group kept playing well.

Scott Kazmir pitched six shutout innings, but more importantly he walked just one. Whatever adjustment he made after his last start worked, as he seemed to regain his early season form. That turnaround raises the probability of the Rays going deep into the post season.

Congratulations to Tampa Bay on a great season. This wasn't a bad team getting lucky. This was a good team playing up to their potential.

The Chicago Cubs win the NL Central with a 5-4 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. It wasn't a typical Cubs win. They only drew two walks and only collected six hits. The starting pitching wasn't that good as Ted Lilly allowed four runs over seven innings. They did pick up three doubles (they lead the league) to make the most of their opportunities, and the bullpen allowed just one walk in two innings of work.

The Cubs, in my opinion, are the best team in baseball this season. They hit for average, get on base and hit for power. That means, as shown today, the offense can generate runs in a variety of ways. The pitchers own the most strikeouts in the NL, helping them to the second lowest ERA in the league. They're a complete team, and in my mind the favorite going into the post season.

The Yankees take a 1-0 victory over Baltimore when Robinson Cano singles with the bases loaded and two out in the bottom of the ninth. Brian Burres allowed just three hits over seven innings, but without support he couldn't win. Alfredo Aceves reduced his ERA to 1.38 with six scoreless innings. He's now gone 26 innings for the Yankees allowing 20 hits and six walks.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox lost to Toronto 6-3. Roy Halladay won his game 19 as he out pitched Jon Lester. That leaves Boston's magic number at two. That means if the Yankees win tomorrow, they'll close Yankee Stadium without being eliminated from the post season.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Friday was a good day for the massive tie scenario. The Marlins and Astros won, while the Phillies and Brewers lost. The following table show the records needed for a five-way tie with the most wins:

Team	Record
Mets	4-5
Phillies	4-4
Brewers	6-2
Astros	9-0
Marlins	9-0

The Brewers are going to need to turn it on if they are going to catch one of the NL East teams at this point. For today:

• Milwaukee defeats Cincinnati
• Houston defeats Pittsburgh
• Atlanta defeats New York
• Florida defeats Philadelphia

The magic number for both the Mets and Phillies to make the playoffs stands at seven.

Two teams claim playoff positions today with a win. With the Brewers loss last night, the Cubs magic number stands at one, so a win over the Cardinals today makes the Cubs NL Central champions.

The Rays clinched a tie for the Wild Card last night with their victory over the Twins. That combined with a Yankees win but Minnesota and New York into a tie for fifth place in the league. A win by the Rays today means the worst they can finish is in the Wild Card position.

The Red Sox can also clinch a playoff spot with some help. They'll need the Rays to win and the Yankees to lose in addition to a victory over Toronto. A win by the Red Sox, however, means the worst they can do is a tie for the Wild Card.

The Mets defeated the Braves to move back into first place in the NL East. The Reyes-Wright tandem knocked out five hits, scored four runs and drove in four runs. The bullpen pitched three solid innings, allowing an unearned run to tie the game as the Mets committed two errors in the seventh, but held Atlanta scoreless the rest of the way as New York scored four runs in the eighth for the 9-5 win.

Philadelphia lost a slugfest to the Marlins 14-8. Florida scored 10 runs of Brett Myers in 4+ innings of work. Jorge Cantu hit his 29th home run, putting him one short of the Marlins having four infielders with 30 homers each. The Marlins winning streak goes to nine games, and they are 4 1/2 games out of the wild card. (Houston wins 5-1 and remains tied with the Fish.) It was the 81st win for the Marlins, an impressive number given how the team lost two important players over the winter.

The Brewers also lose as the Reds hit seven home runs. Youngsters Votto and Bruce each hit two. It's the third time a team hit seven home runs in a game this season, all by the Reds. They also accomplished the feat on May 7th and July 10th. The Brewers fall 11-2, and it seems that Ned Yost could just have easily lost 3 out of 4.

The AL East and AL Central tightened a bit Thursday night. It actually looked like the opposite was going to happen. Mike Mussina got off to a rough start, allowing two hits, two walks and a run in the first inning. But that was it as he lasted six innings and the Yankees bats came to life for a 9-1 win. Bobby Abreu hit two home runs and Derek Jeter banged out two more hits. The two stars are finishing strong to bring their averages up to snuff for the season, and Mussina still has a shot at twenty wins.

While the White Sox were suffering a blow out, Evan Longoria found his home run stroke. He last went deep on August fifth, and made up for lost time with three home runs against the Twins. The Rays took an 8-6 lead into the ninth, but the wheels fell off as Dan Wheeler could not get an out. He gave up a two-run homer to Alexi Casilla which tied the game, and put two more Twins on who eventually came around to score. A five run ninth gave the Twins an 11-8 victory.

That brings leads in both the AL East and AL Central down to 1 1/2 games. Chicago travels to Minnesota next Tuesday for a three-game showdown.

Note: There was a trivia question in the Twins broadcast, and I believe the answer they gave was incorrect. The question, "What was the earliest a franchise won a major award (MVP, CY Young, Rookie of the Year)?" Their answer was Alfredo Griffin, but not only did they get the year wrong (1979, not 1978), Lou Piniella won ROY for the Royals in 1969, their first year of existence.

Even though the Cardinals won last night, I'm dropping them from the massive tie scenario. Albert Pujols hit home run #34 on the season, and Edinson Volquez walked six batters as he continues his second half slide. The Cardinals squeaked by the Reds 5-4.

The Marlins, however, remain viable. They tied the Astros in the standings last night. Houston's player remain shell shocked from hurricane Ike as they lose 8-1. They've been outscored 38-5 since resuming play Sunday. They now travel to Pittsburgh. Maybe they can get back on track against the Pirates.

The Mets and Phillies both won, both putting another game between them and the Brewers. Pat Burrell broke out of his slump with two hits and two RBI and Brad Lidge remained perfect in save opportunities, striking out two of the three batters he faced for his 38th save. The Phillies won by a final of 4-3.

The Mets won big as the winter trades proved useful. The X-Nats pounded the ball and Johan Santana pitched seven strong inning to bring the Mets a 7-2 victory.

The following scenario results in the teams each winning 90 games:

Team	Record
Phillies	4-5
Mets	5-5
Brewers	6-3
Astros	10-0
Marlins	10-0

I start disliking scenarios where a first place team needs to lose more than it wins. A three way tie between the Brewers, Mets and Phillies is a real possibility, however. For today:

• Houston defeats Pittsburgh
• Milwaukee defeats Cincinnati
• Florida defeats Philadelphia
• Atlanta defeats New York

I'm very interested to see if Florida can work its way back into the NL East race.

The Rays put an exclamation point on their championship season Wednesday night, mauling the Red Sox 10-3. Matt Garza didn't last long as he gave up two home runs to David Ortiz, but that was all the offense Boston could muster. The Rays bullpen pitched 4 1/3 innings of one-hit ball as the Rays claimed the tie-breaker in the AL East, putting them in a great position to win the division.

With 90 wins on the season, they've topped their previous high by 20 wins and the Baseball Prospectus prediction by two. They've out performed their Pythagorean projection by five games, but that's what great pitching can do for a team. With the second best ERA in the American League, they're more likely to win low scoring games. They're 28-17 in one-run games, the best record in the AL.

They do have some worries. Scott Kazmir started the season strong but regressed back to his inefficient ways as the season progressed. At this point I would be more confident with Shields and Garza starting. I'm definitely not crazy about using Troy Percival as the closer. He walks too many and gives up too many home runs, a dangerous combination for a late-inning pitcher.

The offense doesn't produce that many runs. Part of that, however, is poor performance with runners in scoring position. They hit .261/.339/.421 over all, but .241/.338/.384 with RISP. That may be bad luck or the nature of the team, number six batters hitting poorly this season.

I like this team going into October. This wasn't an easy 90 wins. They suffered through losing streaks and doubters, but came through nonetheless. They're going to be an exciting playoff team, and I can't wait to watch them in playoffs.

J.A. Happ steps up for the Phillies and pitches six shutout out innings as the Braves fall 6-1. Happ earns his first major league win and the Phillies remain in first place.

The Mets also win, although the bullpen did its best to give the game away. New York scores seven runs in the first four innings for a 7-1 lead. The pen is given an 8-2 lead to protect for four innings. The allow five runs. With protection like that, the Mets better build up very big leads. They win 9-7.

The White Sox fall to the Yankees 5-1. Johnny Damon and Alex Rodriguez both homer, and the Yankees bullpen pitches five scoreless innings, earning a win for Brian Bruney.

Phil Hughes pitched okay, but inefficiently. He gave up one run in four innings, but took 89 pitches to get through the White Sox. At least he brought his ERA down below 8.00.

The Twins and Indians are tied at four in the seventh. Minnesota has a golden opportunity to gain back a game in the AL Central race.

Just in time for the end of the season, a film about the Brewers, Diamondbacks and Mets.

While the Astros and Cardinals keep losing, making the massive tie scenario less likely, the Florida Marlins won six in a row to move back into a place where a run at the playoffs is a possibility. Unlike the other five teams on this list, the Marlins play both the Mets and the Phillies, giving them a chance to control their own destiny. The following records result in a six way tie for the NL East and the NL Wild Card:

Team	Record
Phillies	6-5
Mets	7-5
Brewers	7-4
Astros	10-2
Cardinals	12-0
Marlins	12-0

Florida outscored their opponents 36-22 over these last six games. They're now playing as I thought they would from August on, after they fixed their starting rotation with healed pitchers. The offense didn't perform, however. It may be too little too late for the Marlins, but they host Philadelphia this weekend, then close Shea Stadium the last weekend of the season.

While a six-way tie is a real long shot, the Phillies, Mets and Brewers playing to a three-way tie looks pretty good. We'll see how much the Marlins help pull two of these teams back to the pack.

The Twins never say die as they comeback from an 8-1 deficit to take a 9-8 lead over the Indians. Span and Mauer draw the walks, and Morneau hits the game tying double. Young then gets the sacrifice fly for the ninth run and the lead.

The Twins need to hold onto the lead as the White Sox defeated the Yankees 6-2. Gavin Floyd showed great control, walking none in seven innings of work. He's getting close to one walk every three innings. Andy Pettitte continues to struggle in the Bronx, giving up four runs in six innings of work.

Update: The Indians tie the game on a Grady Sizemore home run in the bottom of the eighth.

Ryan Howard just hit a two run homer in the top of the eighth to bring the Phillies back from a 7-4 deficit to take an 8-7 lead over Atlanta. The Mets, Astros and Cardinals all lost tonight, and Milwaukee is down 3-2 in the seventh. If they can maintain the lead, they'll take over first place in the NL East and possibly move ahead of Milwaukee in the wild card race.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The AL Central remained the same as both the White Sox and Twins lose. Phil Coke had a smile as he won his first major league game in relief of Alfredo Aceves. Alf now holds a 1.80 ERA in two starts after giving up two runs in six innings. Coke has yet to allow a run in his first six appearances. The White Sox bullpen has another bad outing, giving up two runs in two innings.

The Twins fall to the Indians 3-1. Minnesota's game plan did not work against Scott Lewis as he allowed just three hits and two walks over six shutout innings. Mauer homered for the only Minnesota run. Both teams are limping to the finish line, going 5-5 over their last 10 games.

The Cardinals continue to make the five way tie less likely. If they don't start winning soon, they'll get dropped and we'll concentrate on the four-way tie. The most wins for a five way tie at this point is 91.

Team	Record
Mets	8-6
Brewers	8-4
Phillies	8-4
Astros	11-3
Cardinals	13-0

Here's what I'd like to see happen tomorrow:

• The Astros defeat the Cubs
• The Nationals defeat the Mets

Brett Myers pitches a complete game as the Phillies down the Brewers 6-1 in the night cap. Philadelphia moves into a tie with Milwaukee for the NL Wild Card lead. It's the sixth time this season the Brewers were swept in a series of three games or more. The Phillies are also a game behind the Mets for the NL East title. A three way tie among those teams would be fun.

The Phillies lead the Brewers 6-0 in the fifth inning. Burrell is having a good day after being in a slump. He followed up a two hit game in the afternoon with a home run tonight.

The Red Sox defeat the Jays 4-3 and the Yankees down the Rays 8-4 to set up a showdown in Tampa Bay starting Monday. Three good pitching matchups are on tap as Kazmir, Sonnanstine and Garza take on Matsuzaka, Beckett and Wakefield.

The Red Sox haven't won in Tampa this season. If the Rays can take two games, they win the season series and only need a tie with Boston to win the division and home field in the first round. Given the home record of both teams, this will be a hard fought series.

With Minnesota losing big to Baltimore today, the Wild Card is almost certain to come from the east. Whoever wins the division gets the Central champ, while the loser gets the Angels, the best road team in league.

The Cardinals aren't helping the five way tie at all. Their loss to the Pirates yesterday reduces the most wins for a five way tie to 92. I'm not ready to drop them yet, but I'm getting close.

Team	Record
Brewers	9-5
Mets	9-6
Phillies	11-3
Astros	12-3
Cardinals	14-0

After the Brewers-Phillies double header today, none of these teams play head-to-head.

For today, here's what I'd like to see happen:

• St. Louis defeats Pittsburgh
• Philadelphia takes two from Milwaukee
• Atlanta defeats the Mets
• Houston defeats the Cubs

The Cubs and Astros play in Milwaukee today and tomorrow due to the results of hurricane Ike.

The Dodgers can't be stopped, and the Rockies couldn't even contain them tonight. Clayton Kershaw gives up one run over six innings and Russell Martin drives in two from the leadoff spot as the Dodgers take the game 5-1. They've now outscored their opponents 77-29 over their 12-1 run.

Both games of the Detroit-Chicago double header fell to rain, and the Twins are taking advantage of the idle White Sox. They won the first game of their double header against Baltimore 12-2 as Daniel Cabrera continues to lose control. He walked five in 5 1/3 innings while striking out just one. That gives Cabera 90 walks and 95 K on the year, a ratio that won't keep him in the big leagues very long.

Denard Span hit two home runs out of the leadoff slot and drove in four, while Justin Morneau collected four hits, two doubles and two RBI as there's some talk about him for MVP.

In the night cap, the Twins are off to a 6-0 lead in the first. The sent nine men to the plate in the inning. Seven reached base and six scored. If Minnesota can make the early lead hold up, they will be tied in the games back column with Chicago, but one game down in the AFILC.

The Rays defeated the Yankees 7-1 in game one of their double header this afternoon. Mike Mussina walked two and struck out seven in five innings, but that didn't translate into a good outing as the Rays scored five runs in that time. Longoria returned to the lineup and went two for five with two RBI.

It will be very tough for Mussina to get to 20 wins with just three starts left. Even if the Yankees tried to pitch him on three days rest, there's just not enough of the schedule left to get him four more starts. He can't afford another game like this.

The Rays lead the Red Sox by three games pending the outcome of the two night-caps. The Red Sox are down 5-2 in the fifth, while the Rays lead 4-1 in the fourth on a grand slam by Ben Zobrist.

Games are falling the right way so far today for the Massive Tie Scenario to take hold. The Phillies put the hammer down on Manny Parra, scoring five runs in just 1 1/3 innings off the Brewers starter. Of the 13 batters he faced, ten reached by a hit or a walk, while three of his four outs came on the strikeout. Hamels pitched a solid 6 1/3 innings for his 13th win as the Phillies cut the NL Wild Card lead to two with a 7-3 victory.

The Mets lost when Johan Santana, who shutout the Braves for seven innings, couldn't get an out in the eighth. He gave up two singles, then the bullpen did the rest as Scott Schoeneweis and Brian Stokes combined to allow both Santana's runners to score and a third to give the Braves a 3-2 win. That reduces the Mets lead in the NL East to two pending the outcome of the Mets nightcap.

So far this evening, the Cardinals are up 4-2 on the Pirates in the fourth while the Mets lead the Braves 4-0 in the third.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Cardinals didn't help the Massive Tie Scenario as they lost to the Pirates 10-2. Nate McLouth missed the cycle by a single, a tough way to fall short on the feat. Nyjer Morgan and Luis Cruz did a good job setting the table for Nate as he drove in half the Pirates runs. The loss reduces the most wins for a five way tie to 93.

Team	Record
Brewers	10-5
Mets	11-6
Phillies	13-2
Astros	13-2
Cardinals	15-0

Again, with only Philadelphia and Milwaukee playing head to head, there's plenty of room for variation here. The closer to .500 the Mets and Brewers play, the more the odds of a massive tie improve.

For today, here's what I'd like to see happen:

• St. Louis defeats Pittsburgh
• Philadelphia defeats Milwaukee
• Atlanta takes at least one from the Mets

The Cubs stayed in Texas, so with Ike still raging, there's no chance of playing the series at a neutral site. Sunday is not looking good for a makeup either, so it's possible all three game may be played after the scheduled end of the regular season.

The results of the coin flips are here. I'm surprised they didn't have Boston and Chicago flip for a wild card playoffs.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

With the Cubs winning two games from the Cardinals over the last two days, the six-way tie stands at too much of a long shot to keep considering. The following table shows what's needed for a five way with the highest number of wins.

Team	Record
Brewers	11-4
Mets	12-5
Phillies	14-1
Astros	14-1
Cardinals	16-0

Again, with only Philadelphia and Milwaukee playing head to head, there's plenty of room for variation here. The closer to .500 the Mets and Brewers play, the more the odds of a massive tie improve.

For today, here's what I'd like to see happen:

• St. Louis defeats Pittsburgh
• Philadelphia defeats Milwaukee
• Atlanta defeats the Mets

The Cubs and Astros are Iked out, so I'd just like to see the people of the Houston area stay safe.

The Phillies defeat the Brewers 6-3 behind a nice start by Moyer and a fine performance by the bullpen. That puts them three games behind the Mets for the division and three behind the Brewers for the NL Wild Card. The Wild Card will be a bit easier for them to achieve, since they are down three games in the loss column to the Brewers, but four games to the Mets.

Ryan Howard hit home run number 43. That gives him six HR and 15 RBI in ten September games.

The coin flip for home field in case of a tie takes place tomorrow. The Brewers want fans to vote heads or tails. Of course, fans of the other teams can log in and vote for the opposite of what they think is the right choice for the Brewers. :-)

I suppose if the vote is tied, Melvin can just flip a coin!

Murray Chass starts his latest post with this sentence:

By now, you should realize that the Red Sox are going to win the American League East title and finish in first place for a second successive season for the first time since 1916.

The Tampa Bay Rays have waged a scrappy, valiant fight for first, occupying the top spot since June 28 except for five days around the All-Star break and only one day when they played a game. It would be nice to have them rewarded for a surprising, stupendous season, but even after beating the Red Sox twice this week they seem to be ready to have Boston overtake them.

So now we know, it was Murray playing the Black Knight.

"It's just a flesh wound."

Despite out-homering the Mariners 4-0, the Rangers fall to Seattle 8-7. That makes the Angels the first team officially into the playoffs. They now get 20 days to rest, heal, and try to stay in first place for home field throughout the playoffs.

Congratulations to the Angels on thier AL West Championship!

Francisco Rodriguez puts runners at first and third with two out, but strikes out Hideki Matsui to seal a 4-2 victory for the Angels. That clinches a tie for the AL West, and if Seattle wins over Texas, the Angels clinch the division outright. (Seattle and Texas are tied at six in the sixth.)

K-Rod also picks up his 56th save of the season, leaving him one short of the record. Unless the Angels shut him down after he reaches 58, he do to Thigpen's record what McGwire did to Maris's; leave it in the dust.

Congratulations to the Angels on another fine season!

The NL West keeps slipping away from the Arizona Diamondbacks:

It was close to 9:30 on Tuesday night when, in San Diego, Manny Ramirez hit a deep drive to the warning track in center field, a sacrifice fly that brought home the go-ahead run for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Five hundred miles to the north and about 30 minutes later, after dramatics by Chris Snyder tied the score at AT&T Park, the San Francisco Giants rallied in the bottom of the ninth for a walk-off, 5-4 win over the Diamondbacks.

Andre Ethier continued his hot hitting, going two for four with four RBI. He's driven in 11 runs in the last five games and Manny hit his 12th home runs since joining LA.

In San Francisco, the Chrises, Snyder and Young, combined for five hits and all four Arizona runs scored. The team as a whole, however, could not get to Barry Zito who worked six strong innings, striking out nine and only allowing two runs.

Jon Rauch takes the loss as he faces two batters and allows both to reach, setting up the winning run. In a trade that hurt the Diamondbacks, Rauch is now 0-5 with a 6.41 ERA, allowing five home runs in 19 2/3 innings. Bob Melvin picked a bad time to stop sniffing glue.

Talk about playing hurt. Brandon Phillips singled home the winning run in the 11th inning to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers moments after breaking a finger on a bunt attempt. Phillips season is over, but his hit allowed the Astros and Cardinals to gain on the Brewers in the wild card race. Lance Berkman missed the cycle by a triple and Randy Wolf ran his Houston record to 4-1 as the Astros beat the Pirates 9-3.

The Phillips single also brings back the Massive Tie Scenario. It looked for a while that there wasn't much of a chance for a three-way tie, but now a four-way is looking more likely and a five-way tie is also a possibility. The following records result in a five-way tie with the highest winning percentage among the competitors, each with 95 wins:

Team	Record
Mets	14-4
Brewers	13-4
Phillies	16-1
Cardinals	17-1
Astros	17-0

The only teams who play head-to-head are Milwaukee and Philadelphia, starting Thursday. For the above to happen, the Phillies need to take three out of four, but there's a lot of leeway here. The above five-way tie would result in a one-game playoff for the NL East, then a four team playoff for the wild card.

The six-way tie also lurks in the background. All the Cubs games down the stretch involve teams in the above table. That reduces the number of scenarios available, but this is possible:

Team	Record
Cubs	6-12
Mets	11-7
Brewers	10-7
Phillies	13-4
Cardinals	14-4
Astros	14-3

I have the Astros taking three from the Cubs, the Cardinals five from the Cubs, and the Brewers going 4-2 against Chicago and 1-3 against Philadelphia. The Cubs then sweep four from the Mets. Again, it's not the only possibility for a six-way tie, but it does result in the highest winning percentage, each team winning 92 games.

The six-way tie results in a one-game playoff for the NL East, and a two day playoff for the NL Central title. That would be followed by a two day playoff for the NL Wild Card. It's an extra week of bonus baseball!

It's time for me to start rooting based on the chance of the season ending pileup, here's what I'd like to see today:

• The Cardinals defeat the Cubs.
• The Brewers defeat the Reds.
• The Phillies defeat the Marlins.
• The Mets defeat the Nationals.
• The Astros defeat the Pirates.

The Cardinals/Cubs outcome is the most important one for the six-way tie scenario.

The Mets get back the game they lost to the Phillies over the weekend with a tough 10-8 win over the Nationals. The game went back and forth, but back-to-back home runs by Beltran and Delgado in the sixth sealed the win for the Mets.

Carlos Delgado hit two home runs in the game, bringing his season total to 35. With three RBI tonight, he's one short of his pre-break total of 52 in 45 fewer games.

The Toronto Blue Jays complete the double header sweep of the White Sox with an 8-2 win in the night cap. Six Blue Jays collected mult-hit games and Litsch pitched seven strong innings. With the Red Sox loss, the Jays are now seven games out of the wild card with seven games left with Boston, starting Friday at Fenway.

Meanwhile, Minnesota downed Kansas City 7-2, meaning the Twins gain 1 1/2 games on the White Sox. They're now just one game out of first place in the AL Central. Mauer and Morneau drove in two runs each, Morneau with his 23rd home run and Mauer without the aid of a hit. Span continues to impress from the leadoff spot, reaching base three times and scoring twice.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Red Sox shutout the Rays 3-0 behind the Jons, Lester and Papelbon. Lester lasts 7 2/3 innings, lowering his ERA against the Rays this season to 0.90. Papelbon gets four outs for his 36th save of the season, striking out three of the five batters he faced.

The Rays offense disappears for the second day in a row. They've now gone 18 innings without scoring a run. For the second day in a row, they get a good game from their starter, today Edwin Jackson. They need to get Longoria back in the lineup. They also lost Upton to a strained left quad.

The two teams are now tied with 85 wins, but the Red Sox trail in the loss column by one. The Rays need a split of the next two games to remain in first place. However, they are now 0-7 at Fenway this season.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

For the second day in a row, the Dodgers score seven runs as they down the Diamondbacks 7-2. While Ethier starred Friday night, Manny Ramirez showed why the Dodgers traded for him as he homered and doubled, driving in five of the team's runs.

Chad Billingsley continued his great pitching down the stretch, shutting out Arizona for 6 1/3 innings, striking out nine. He lowers his ERA to 3.02. Maybe some of us should start taking a look at him as a Cy Young candidate.

Webb gives up all seven runs for his third poor start in a row. With Webb, Haren and Johnson in trouble, Zambrano and Harden not particularly healthy, and Ben Sheets iffy, could the Dodgers and the Mets be the teams that emerge with the the best pitching in the NL playoffs? Fox would love to see a Mets/Dodgers LCS, and Manny against the Red Sox would bring a lot of eyeballs to the World Series.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Twins arrived home after a long road trip and had both the hitting and pitching working, something that only happened twice in the previous two weeks. Francisco Liriano lasted seven innings for the second time this year, striking out six and walking none. Justin Morneau hit a grand slam while Young and Buscher each drove in two, and the Twins defeat Detroit 10-2. They keep pace with Chicago and Boston, although 5 1/2 games out of the wild card it appears their best bet for the playoffs rests in the division.

Mike Schmidt sent the Phillies an email before the game telling them:

In a pep talk via e-mail, Mike Schmidt reminded the Philadelphia Phillies of their big comeback to win the NL East last season and said "the Mets know you're better than they are."

It worked tonight as the Phillies defeated the Mets 3-0. Myers pitced a brilliant game, stopping the Mets for eight innings while striking out 10. Pelfrey gave up an unearned run early, but his big mistake was a two-run homer to Greg Dobbs in the seventh, just over the glove of Ryan Church. Lidge put the first two batters on in the ninth, but worked out of the jam for his 34th save in 34 opportunities. Myers is now holding a 1.55 ERA since his return from the minors, and the Mets lead is down to two games.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Brewers lost their fourth game in a row, falling to the Padres 5-2. Every starter in the Milwaukee lineup collected exactly one hit, but they could not string them together. This against a pitcher, Shawn Estes who spent three months recuperating from a broken thumb and a team one loss away from the worst record in the NL.

Over the next six games, the Brewers play weak opponents. They have three more against the Padres and three against the Reds, all at home. Milwaukee needs to clean up over these six as they then begin a ten game road trip with four at Philadelphia and three at Chicago.

One thing working in the Brewers favor is that they are one of the few good teams on the road this season. Their 39-32 record is best in the NL and only the Angels are better away from home. The other favorable aspect of the schedule is they are through with the Astros. Houston is playing much better, but needs to depend on other teams to take out the Brewers.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Two Ryan Howard home runs could not trump three Cristian Guzman hits as the Washington shortstop continued his hot hitting. The Phillies fall 9-7 and slip three games behind the Mets. Washington has now won 8 of their last 9 games, while the Phillies are 3-5 in their last eight.

The NL West race involves two teams separated by 1 1/2 games entering Wednesday. Here's how the two teams stand in terms of major statistics:

2008 (NL Ranks)	Diamondbacks	Dodgers
Runs per Game	4.59 (9th)	4.16 (13th)
OBA	.326 (9th)	.327 (8th)
Slug.	.415 (9th)	.393 (13th)
ERA	4.02 (6th)	3.76 (1st)
Staters ERA	4.00 (4th)	4.02 (5th)
Relief ERA	4.10 (9th)	3.29 (2nd)

Both teams clearly depend on their pitching. With a superior bullpen, the Dodgers are able to hide weaknesses in the starting rotation. However, they've used the bullpen about 50 innings more than the Diamondbacks, so we'll see if the Los Angeles relievers hold up as well down the stretch. They are struggling a bit more lately. For the season, opponents have a .310 OBA and a .366 slugging percentage against the pen. Since 8/1, those numbers are .331/.410.

So far, Manny Ramirez is winning the best trade contest. Both have OBA's around .500 (.488 for Adam Dunn, .500 for Ramirez), but Manny is winning the power battle by .250 points of slugging percentage. Despite that, the Dodgers are 15-16 since August first, the DBacks 14-16.

My feeling is that the difference in scoring is more a product of the two home parks, and that these teams are actually very even offensively. That leave the race down to the front line starting pitching of the DBacks versus the fading pen of the Dodgers. Given that the Arizona starters appear to be fading more than the Dodgers bullpen, I have to give the nod to Los Angeles to sneak by with the division title.

Of course, Colorado still lurks in the background. Could they pull off two miracles in a row? That's unlikely, but it will be fun to watch them try.

The White Sox defeat the Indians to put Cleveland 10 1/2 games back in the division race. With Chicago's magic number over the Indians at 14, I find it tough to believe that the White Sox won't win 7 more and Cleveland won't lose seven more with about 24 to play. It was a long shot, but as long as Cleveland was gaining, you had to give them the benefit of the doubt.

The NL West standings contracted a bit Tuesday night as the Diamondbacks lost and the Dodgers and Rockies won. Five games now separate the top three teams with Arizona just two games over .500.

The Cardinals scored eight runs on just seven hits, but with seven walks appearing to clog the bases, five extra-base hits helped clear them. Adam Wainwright allowed just one run in 5 1/3 innings as he works back from his injury, and St. Louis went on to an 8-2 victory. The Cardinals hit seven home runs in two games in Arizona. That's their best performance in terms of HR per game against any team this season.

The Rockies got to Tim Lincecum in Coors, scoring five runs in the fourth inning. The Giants tied the game in the sixth, and the teams traded zeros until the 12th when Ryan Spilborghs singled home Omar Quintanilla with the winning run. Jason Grilli pitched three strong innings for the win, striking out four. His ERA since joining the Rockies stands at 2.98. He has struck out 54 batters in 52 2/3 innings while allowing just one home run.

The Dodgers certainly are streaky lately. They've now won four in a row after an eight-game losing streak, outscoring their opponents 27-9. Andre Ethier missed the cycle by a double and Manny Ramirez hit his 10th home run for Los Angeles as the Dodgers downed the Padres 8-4. The two players combined to drive in four and score five of the eight runs. The Dodgers are now just 1 1/2 games out of first place.

The AL Central is the tightest of the division races, with the Twins and White Sox sporting identical 77-60 records. Here's how the two teams stand in terms of major statistics:

2008 (AL Ranks)	Twins	White Sox
Runs per Game	5.09 (3rd)	5.06 (4th)
OBA	.339 (6th)	.337 (8th)
Slug.	.411 (9th)	.456 (2nd)
ERA	4.12 (7th)	3.92 (5th)
Staters ERA	4.22 (8th)	4.07 (7th)
Relief ERA	3.91 (7th)	3.59 (5th)

They are nearly tied in runs per game despite the White Sox appearing to own the better offense. While the Twins put more people on base, the White Sox power is near the top of the league. The Twins made up for the lack of power with timely hitting. They are batting .313 with runners in scoring position versus .282 for Chicago. Minnesota ranks first in the AL in that category while the White Sox rank 4th. Given that I don't believe batting with RISP is really a skill, it seems the White Sox offense is more likely to hold up down the stretch. Also, the Twins are about 0.3 runs per game over what runs created predicts, while the White Sox are spot on.

The Twins starters' ERA for the season doesn't reflect the current reality of the team. Since Livan Hernandez left, Minnesota starters are 15-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 30 games. Because they average just over six innings per start, however, they are putting some pressure on the bullpen. Their ERA over the period is 4.20.

The White Sox look solid right now 1-3 with Danks, Floyd and Vazquez. Buehrle, however, is inconsistent with two great outings and two horrible ones in August. They also haven't found reliable fifth starter, although the job has fallen to Clayton Richard. Right now, the Twins get the nod for the superior pitching.

It strikes me that if the Twins starters can pitch this well for the month of September, the offense scores enough (even falling back to their runs created prediction) that the Twins should win more games than the Sox. The two teams face off in the penultimate series of the season. The White Sox also appear to have the tougher schedule as they play the Angels and the Yankees, while the Twins just get the Rays. It seems to me the Twins should squeak by with a division title here.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Astros completed a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals, winning 3-0 Sunday afternoon. With the Brewers sweeping the Pirates, St. Louis finds itself 6 1/2 games out in the wild card race, and now also trails the Phillies. The Cardinals are also seven games down in the loss column. Milwaukee's magic number to eliminate the Cardinals from playoff competition is 20.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My lastest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Diamondbacks and Dodgers both lost today, Greg Maddux falling to Washington 5-4 this evening. Even more amazing, Livan Hernandez is out pitching Tim Lincecum through six. Dave Roberts just tripled with one out, and tried to score on a fly ball to shallow center. Willy Taveras nailed him at the plate with a perfect throw. The Rockies maintain a slim 1-0 lead.

For the second day in a row, the Mets and Phillies are tied late. Carlos Degado just hit his second home run of the game, an opposite field shot down the leftfield line to tie the score at 3 in the top of the eighth. Last night's contest was one of the most exciting games I watched all year, and this one is shaping up to try to match it.

Update: After an infield single by Beltran, Charlie Manuel brings Lidge into the game, and he allows three runs to score. A Murphy double plates one, and a Schneider bloop down the leftfield line brings in the other two. The Mets give their bullpen a three run lead to hold.

Update: The Mets bullpen pitches a perfect 8th and 9th and take back first place in the NL East.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Giants Tuesday night 7-2. Coupled with a bad outing by Brandon Webb leading to a 9-2 San Diego win over Arizona, the Rockies find themselves six games out of first place. With nine wins in their last eleven games, including two out of three from the Dodgers, the Rockies gained three game on Arizona and six on Los Angeles. Playing mostly on the road, they've allowed just 41 runs over that time.

Can they continue? The remaining schedule is good. Sixteen of their remaining 28 games are against teams with losing records, and three come against Houston, a .500 team. The have three games with the Dodgers and six with the Diamondbacks, just enough to catch both without help from other teams. Last season the big push didn't happen until Sept.16. They allowed 51 runs in their last 15 games to win the wild card. This season, a miracle in the mountains needs to take them to the division title.

The Rockies went 17-10 with great hitting in July. They've gone 14-10 with good pitching in August. If they can get both in September, they may turn the NL West into a three-team race.

The Milwaukee Brewers put the Cardinals playoff hopes in jeopardy tonight, blowing out St. Louis 12-0. Hardy, Braun and Fielder combined for eight hits, five runs and four RBI. Ben Sheets stops a personal two-game losing streak with six shutout innings. The Cardinals did work him, however, as he needed 100 pitches to get through six. The Brewers now lead the Cardinals by 4 1/2 games in the Wild Card race, five in the AFILC.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Luis Ayala pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings for the win as the Mets come back from a 4-3 deficit to defeat the Braves in the bottom of the ninth when Carlos Delgado singles in David Wright.

Ayala came to the Mets from Washington, who picked up Anderson Hernandez in the deal. The second baseman drove in a run tonight to cut the Phillies lead to 3-2, and Washington went on to win the game 4-3 with two runs in the eighth. That drops the Phillies 2 1/2 games behind the Mets. The trade helps them in Philadelphia and New York at the same time!

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The White Sox once again pound the ball, defeating the Mariners 13-5. For the second game in a row they hit four home runs, the ninth time this season they've reached that level. Carlos Quentin extends his major league lead with his 35th homer of the season.

The win puts the White Sox in first place as the Twins fall to the Athletics 3-2. They did manage to score a run off Brad Ziegler, who still earns his third save with two innings of work. So far, he hasn't been the traditional closer, with two of his three saves lasting two innings. Will he redefine the closer role as the eighth and the ninth?

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Twins and White Sox both score big today as they remain tied for the AL Central lead. Minnesota took an 8-0 lead into the sixth, but three Seattle home in the seventh runs brought them back to an 11-8 loss.

The White Sox hit four home runs, the eighth time this year they've hit at least that many in a game. That leads the majors. Nine of their 13 runs score on the homers, giving more than enough support to Javier Vazquez. He walks none and strikes out eight to even his record at 10-10.

Both teams gain on the Red Sox and now sit just 1/2 game out of the wild card. The three teams are even in the AFILC. This season could easily end with three new teams in the AL playoffs compared to 2007.

The Cleveland Indians take two out of three from the LAnaheim Angels with a 4-3 victory this afternoon. All three game were decided by one run with Cleveland out scoring the Angels 10-9.

The loss puts the Rays just two games behind the Angels for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. It probably means more to the Rays to earn home field, since the Angels have an excellent 39-23 record on the road. Of course, if they face the Rays in the playoffs, getting them out of Tampa Bay is a very good idea.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Cardinals Diaspora appears to be conceding the NL Central and NL Wild Card to the Cubs and the Brewers:

Let's talk turkey here: MLB's worst bullpen might be starting to shore up- but the damage has been done. If we had back 1/3 of the blown saves these dog meat arms gave up, the Cardinals would be neck and neck with the Cubs. But since they don't intend on giving any ground back; we're moving through August with the frustration of a team that will spend the off-season wondering 'what could have been'. Frankly, I hate it. If you're writing the script for 2008 you want the scrappy Cards to make it to the playoffs. Yet with 45 days remaining before playoff game 1 the NL Central big boys aren't leaving any room for error.

It's a scary thought that winning 3 out of 4 on the road from a divisional contender looses you ground.

Both the Brewers and Cubs went out and acquired top line talent for the stretch drive, and both pitched well yesterday. The Cardinals failed to counter those moves, and they're now seeing their playoffs hope fade away.

Nomar Garciaparra homered in the bottom of the ninth to cap a Dodgers comeback as they defeat Philadelphia 7-6. Brad Penny pitched poorly, staking the Phillies to a 6-1 lead after two innings. Los Angeles fought back, however, as Manny Ramirez cut the lead in half with a two-run shot in the third inning, and Jeff Kent tied the game with a two out, two run double in the eighth. It was a good night for the veteran hitters.

Combined with the Diamondbacks 6-5 loss to Colorado and the Mets 12-0 win over Washington, the NL East and the NL West are both tied. With the Cubs and Brewers continuing to cruise toward playoff spots, this is where all the action lies in the National League.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The AL East race stretched from Boston to Oakland Tuesday night. With Boston winning a wild game, the Rays needed a win to maintain their lead. They managed five hits and four walks off Oakland starter Gio Gonzalez in five innings, but managed just one run. Scott Kazmir only allowed two hits, but one of those was a two-run homer by Bobby Crosby, and Oakland takes the game 2-1. Tampa's lead drops to three games. Brad Ziegler pitched a scoreless inning for his second save and now stands at 38 scoreless innings since reaching the majors.

The White Sox won their game quickly, but the Yankees and Twins took twelve innings to complete a 9-6 Yankees win. Alex Rodriguez was 0 for 5 when he came up in the twelfth with the score tied at six. The 1-2-3 hitters in the lineup reached base nine times, giving Alex plenty of opportunity to do damage before that point. He finally delivers a solo shot to give New York the lead. Two batters later, Nady follows an I-Rod hit with a home run for the final runs of the game. Mariano Rivera blew a save for the first time in 2008.

The Mets and Marlins waited to see if they would gain ground in the NL East as the Phillies played at Los Angeles. The Phillies scored early off Kershaw, the Dodgers scored late off the bullpen, and the Dodgers came out on top 4-3. Utley hit his 30th home run and Hamels kept the ball in the park, but it wasn't enough as Ethier singled home the winning run in the bottom of the ninth. The Phillies, Mets and Marlins sit 1-2-3 in the NL East, 1 1/2 games separating top from third.

The Dodgers needed the win as Arizona defeated Colorado 4-2. Randy Johnson pitched another great game, striking out seven and walking one over six innings of work. Adam showed how it's Dunn as he walked twice, struck out twice and doubled in the win. Arizona remains one game ahead of the Dodgers. It will be interesting to see if Dunn's selectivity rubs off on other Diamondbacks players.

The Brewers took advantage of Florida's win over St. Louis to increase their lead in the wild card race. It was a bit of a slugfest in San Diego as each team hit two home runs. The Padres' dingers were both solo shots, while Prince Fielder's was good for three runs and Milwaukee wins 5-3. They now hold a solid four game lead for the last playoff spot.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Chicago Cubs down the Cardinals 6-2, taking two out of three from their division rivals. Over the Cubs last 13 games, they've played division rivals exclusively. They've won ten of those games, outscoring their opponents 78-49. This was a perfect two-week period for the division to gain on Chicago, and the Cubs put everyone away.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Minnesota Twins bring up Francisco Liriano and move into first place on the same day. Liriano's six shutout innings lead to a 6-2 victory over the Indians. Span and Harris hit solo homers to help the cause, and Span, with a .403 OBA is emerging as the leadoff hitter the Twins needed.

The White Sox fall to the Royals 14-3. Greinke and Tejada combine to hold the White Sox offense down, giving up seven hits. Aviles, Butler and Maier combine for ten hits in 14 at bats, scoring four and driving in six. The Royals go to 28-24 when Aviles plays. KC is now if fourth play, three games ahead of the Indians, while the Twins take a 1/2 game lead on the White Sox, even in the loss column at 49.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Both the Cubs and White Sox won Wednesday night, extending their leads in the two Central Divisions. The Cubs are three for three in the four game series, dropping Milwaukee four games back and into a virtual tie with St. Louis for the Wild Card lead. The Northsiders are sending a pretty strong message, going into Miller Park and outscoring the Brewers 20-7, despite Milwaukee throwing their three best starters.

The three losses by Milwaukee also allowed the rest of the league back into the wild card race, as the Mets, Marlins and Dodgers are now all in striking distance of top second banana.

The White Sox prevented a sweep in their four game series with an 8-3 win over the Twins. Gavin Floyd and Carlos Quentin starred, Floyd pitching into the eighth with one run allowed and Quentin collecting three hits and four RBI, including a double and home run.

Livan Hernandez gave up five earned runs in four innings. His ERA is high, but except for the occasional start like last night, he has been going deep in games. At what point, however, does the 5.48 ERA become a liability? When do the Twins pull the trigger and replace him with Liriano?

The Minnesota Twins eek out a one-run victory over the White Sox, the second of their four game series. This pulls Minnesota even with Chicago in the totally unimportant win column (TUWC). However if the Twins win tomorrow night, they will have pulled even in the All Freakin' Important Loss Column (AFILC), and somehow make up a loss. :-)

Mauer and Morneau did most of the damage against Chicago, driving in five of the six runs on the night. The two have combined for 130 RBI this season.

The Cubs defeat the Brewers 7-1 as Carlos Zambrano pitches eight shutout innings. His nine strikeouts represents a season high. He upped his Ks without upping his walks, as he issued just two free passes.

Sheets, who had walked nine Cubs in two starts, only issued one tonight. The Cubs, however, hammered pitches in the zone as they collected eleven hits in 5 1/3 innings off the Brewers ace. That was good for six runs and the Cubs cruised the rest of the way. Chicago extends their NL Central lead to three games, and the Brewers are now just one game ahead of the Cardinals for the wild card lead. The Cubs should feel good right now. The Brewers threw their two best pitchers in the first two games of this series and Chicago walked away with wins in both games. The Cubs sure look like the team to beat in the National League this season.

There have been a number of well pitched games tonight. Oliver Perez joins the list as he allows one run over six innings and the Mets down the Marlins 4-1. He finishes up a great July in which he's allowed five earned runs in 32 2/3 innings, good for a 1.38 ERA. Delgado added his ninth home run of the month. That's almost 40% of his season total. The Mets maintain their 1/2 game lead over the Phillies.

While the Red Sox fell to the Angels, the Rays received a great pitching performance from Matt Garza. He pitches a shutout, allowing just five hits as the Rays down the Blue Jays 3-0. Facing Roy Halladay, Garza had to be at his best, and he walked one and struck out five. Eric Hinske had the big blow, a solo home run in the third. That was all Garza needed as he picks up his ninth win lowers his ERA to 3.56. It's Garza's second complete game of the year and his career.

The win extends the Rays lead in the AL East to two games. It's one of the first times this season when Tampa Bay was able to gain on Boston with the Rays on the road and the Red Sox at home.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Twins take down the Indians 4-2. Both starters, Blackburn and Sowers pitch well and deep into the game, but neither bullpen comes through. Dennys Reyes allows Cleveland to tie the game at two, while Rafael Perez gives up two runs in the ninth to lose the game for the Indians. Two of the Twins four runs scored on outs.

Meanwhile, Detroit managed a 6-4 win over the White Sox. Both teams hit two home runs, all solo shots. Zach Miner showed unusual control, walking none and striking out five. He came into the game with more walks than strikeouts. Ivan Rodriguez went four for four and is now hitting .354 since the start of June.

The Twins win and the White Sox loss puts Minnesota 2 1/2 games back of Chicago in the AL Central. The two team open a four game series in the Twin Cites tomorrow. Minnesota needs to take three out of four to keep the pressure on Chicago. So far, the White Sox lead the season series 7-4. They don't play again until the penultimate series of the season.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Cardinals 14 inning victory over the Mets Saturday night resulted in both the NL East and NL Central races getting tighter. The Mets lead the Phillies and Marlins by one game, while the Cubs and Brewers are tied for the NL Central lead with Cardinals three games back.

Right now, there are three division races involving three teams within three games of first place, two division races where two teams are less than four games apart and only one blow out race (the AL West). All in all, there are 19 teams in first or ten games out of first place. It a very exciting race, and we've already seen a number of substantial comebacks. I've been trying to score the season to see if it is indeed tighter than others through 7/26, and the best I can do right now is look at the standard deviation of winning percentage among the 30 teams:

Through games of July 26th in the given season.

Season	WPct STD
2007	0.0587
2000	0.0612
2008	0.0658
2005	0.0692
1999	0.0704
2004	0.0742
2006	0.0745
2002	0.0838
2001	0.0842
2003	0.0856
1998	0.0871

Last year at this time the races were close, but there were few really bad teams. Cleveland had yet to go on their streak that buried the rest of the AL Central. In 2000, there were more big division leads, but few really bad teams.

So in 2008, we seem to have a good mix for tight division races. A few bad teams allow the decent teams to put together winning streaks. Combined with none of the good teams being truly outstanding (even the Angels, the only team over .600, are far exceeding their projected winning percentage), and almost every division is up for grabs. It should be a fun last two months of the year.

The Brewers come back with two runs in the seventh and two runs in the eighth to defeat the Astros 6-4. The win puts Milwuakee into a tie with the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. Ryan Braun hits his 27th home run to tie the game. He's hit 7 home runs and drove in 20 runs so far in the month of July, four of those homers and 12 of those RBI coming since the All-Star break.

The Yankees defeat the Red Sox 10-3 to keep their winning streak alive. They now trail the Red Sox by one game, but are even in the All Freakin' Important Loss Column (AFILC). A win tomorrow and the Yankees take over the wild card lead.

After finishing April one game under .500, they've been going up by powers of two since. The Yankees played May two games over .500, then four over in May, and now they are 14-6 in July.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

LyfLines notes the Red Sox and Rays home/road schedules heavily favors Boston the rest of the way.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

Johan Santana goes eight innings against the Phillies, allowing two runs. With Billy Wagner unavailable, Duaner Sanchez comes in to get the save. He starts a ninth inning that so far has resulted in the Phillies scoring six runs, taking an 8-5 lead. The radio announcers noted that Santana threw 105 pitches, and wonder why he didn't come out for the ninth. He's gone over 110 pitches six times this season. The Mets just brought out their fourth pitcher of the inning.

Update: Heilman gets the Mets out of the inning. New York will need to score at least three runs against Lidge.

Update: The Mets score one in the 9th but fall 8-6. The Phillies open up a one-game lead over New York.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Texas Rangers shut down the Chicago White Sox Monday night behind the pitching of Scott Feldman and three strong innings by the bullpen. Feldman made one mistake, a gopher ball to Carlos Quentin that plated the White Sox's only run. Hamilton and Blalock went deep for Texas, account for five of the six Texas runs. That gives Hamilton 98 RBI in 96 games he's played, and 100 Texas games. That puts him on a pace for 159 RBI this season.

With the Oakland loss to Tampa Bay, the Rangers move into second place in the AL West, 8 1/2 games behind the Angels (who fell last night to the Cleveland Indians). They are also 5 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card race. Starting on 4/25, Texas is 45-32, the fourth best record in the majors.

The Yankees pulled within a game of the Twins, easily defeating them by a score of 12-4. The whole team hit well, but three struggling players turned in fine performances. The 6 through 8 players, Cano, Cabrera and Molina combined for a seven for fourteen night with four runs scored. Cano added a home run. That was more than enough runs for Ponson, who goes to 6-1 on the season. The Yankees are undefeated in four games since the break, and now sit 2 1/2 games behind the Red Sox for the wild card, pending the outcome of the Boston game in Seattle.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

I'm back from Atlanta after flight delays and traffic delays. In my absence, five of the six division races tightened. The Yankees swept the Athletics, the Rays took two out of three from Toronto, and the Angels swept the Red Sox. That puts the Yankees 4 1/2 back in the division and three back in the wild card.

The Twins took two out of three from Texas while the White Sox lost two out of three to Kansas City. That puts Minnesota 1/2 game back in the AL Central.

The Dodgers took two out of three from the Diamondbacks to force a tie for first place in the NL West. Both teams are two games under .500.

The Cubs lost two out of three to the Astros, while the Brewers swept the Giants, outscoring them 24-10. The Cardinals swept the Padres 30-20 over four games. St. Louis and Milwaukee are two and three back of the Cubs respectively. It looks like this division is the class of the National League.

Finally, the Marlins took two out of three from the Phillies while the Mets split four with the Reds. That puts the Mets into a tie for first place with the Marlins 1/2 game out. That gives us three three-team races, two two-team races, and the Angels, the luckiest team in terms of run difference running away with the AL West. It should be an exciting finish to the season.

The Phillies trailed the Marlins by three home runs coming into this evening's game, but they hit two to Florida's none as they take the game 4-2. Howard and Jenkins each hit solo shots, and Utley collect two hits and an RBI. The Phillies bullpen continues to pitch well, allowing no runs in three innings of work.

Meanwhile, the Reds get to John Maine for hits, five walks and five runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. That was all the runs the Reds needed as Bronson Arroyo pitched eight strong innings and the Mets winning streak ended 5-2. Maine has now allowed 14 earned runs in his last four starts, lasting a total of 19 innings.

The Phillies regain sole possession of first place, one game ahead of the Mets and 2 1/2 games in front of the Marlins.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest post on the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Tampa Bay Rays lose their seventh in a row, falling 5-2 to the Cleveland Indians. They drew seven walks in four innings against Cleveland starter Jeremy Sowers, but only managed two runs. The Tribe's bullpen then pitched five perfect innings that allowed Cleveland to come back against Scott Kazmir.

Meanwhile, Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched six scoreless innings against Baltimore despite walking five batters. Boston held on for a 2-1 win as Jonathan Papelbon nearly blew the save, allowing three hits and one run. The Red Sox win and the Rays loss propel the Boston into first place by 1/2 game, although the Rays are still one game up in the AFILC.

Correction: It's the AFILC, not the AFLIC. It stands for the All F'in Important Loss Column.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

My latest look at the NL East is up at MetsBlog.com.

The Arizona Diamondbacks fall one game under .500 as the Nationals win the game 5-0. It's another poor outing for Micah Owings, who allows three runs in 5 2/3 innings. The Dodgers can tie the DBacks for the NL West lead with a win over Atlanta.

John Lannan pitched six shutout innings for the Nationals. He'll probably garner some Rookie of the Year support, pitching well for a bad team.

The Red Sox and Yankees splitting four games this weekend turned out to be good news for both the Rays and the Twins. Both teams boast winning streaks of at least five games, so were able to gain ground and extend leads on the big two. The Rays now lead by five games in the AL East, seven games in the AFILC. The Twins are just 1/2 game behind Boston for the wild card. At this point, it's possible that neither Boston nor New York make the playoffs. That would certainly be a shock.

The Dodgers win again, taking down Houston 5-2. The young hitters played well. Ethier and Loney homered, and DeWitt drove in two. Loney hit for a high average in June, but hit only one home run. Los Angeles could use him picking up his power.

The Diamondbacks are losing 3-0 in the sixth. An Arizona loss puts the Dodgers 1/2 game out of first place in the NL West. Dodgers are 10-5 over their last 15 games.

The Oakland Athletics defeated the LAnaheim Angels 6-1 last night, cutting the lead in both the AL West and the Wild card to 3 1/2 games. The Oakland battery starred last night. Greg Smith pitched a complete game, using just 101 pitches to stop the Angels on four hits. It's the second complete game for the rookie, the other an eight inning loss to the Angels. When few pitchers collect one complete game in a season, Smith's total of two is impressive.

Of course, both CG were against the Angels, the team tied for the most CG against in the majors:

Most Compete Games Against, 2008

Team	CG Against
Angels	8
Royals	8
White Sox	5
Twins	5
Mariners	4

The Angels philosophy is to put the ball in play. That makes it a bit easier for the opposing pitcher to be efficient. Smith took great advantage of that last night.

Kurt Suzuki knocked out two hits last night and scored a run, including a double. He's had an up and down season, but he's hot again and back at the top of the order:

Kurt Suzuki, 2008

Month	OBA	Slug Pct
March-April	.367	.330
May	.245	.277
June	.435	.543

Overall Kurt now holds a .348 OBA and a .375 slugging percentage. At those levels he's a useful offensive catcher. At his June levels he's a superstar.

The Rays and Red Sox each played a one-run game today. The Rays came out on top in theirs winning 4-3 over the Pirates. Aybar and Riggans both homered for Tampa Bay, but the final difference was an unearned run scored in the eighth on a Nady error that allowed the runners to advance an extra base.

Boston fell to Houston 3-2. Aardsma and Okajima combined to allow a run in the eighth, with David putting the runner on base and Hideki giving up the RBI.

With today marking the end of the 13th week of the season, the Rays how sit in first place in the AL East by 1/2 game. Tampa Bay is 14-10 in one-run games, the Red Sox 11-12. More important, however, is their home/road splits. Boston is two games ahead of Tampa Bay in terms of their road records, but 2 1/2 behind on the road. The Rays, with the win today are .500 on the road, while Boston sits five games under.

Both Western division races tightened a bit Friday night. Chan Ho Park continued to show his great control at Dodger Stadium, walking none and striking out seven over six shutout innings of work. The pen was even better, retiring all nine batters faced, seven more on strikeouts. The Angels, the great contact team, went down on strikes fourteen times in the game as they fell 6-0. That's only the 8th time in 1376 games with the Angels that a Scioscia team struck out fourteen or more times in a game, and only the 2nd time since 2004.

Taking advantage of the Angels loss were the Oakland Athletics. Dana Eveland held the Giants to five his and one run, while the Oakland offense scored three times off Keiichi Yabu to take the game 4-1. Eveland has allowed just three home runs all year and none since May 21st.

The Arizona Diamondbacks lost to the Florida Marlins Friday night 3-1. That puts the Diamondback at .500, 40-40. A loss today and they will lead their division with a sub .500 record. While some teams have come close, we've never had a sub .500 team make the playoffs before. The AL West was like this in 1994, but the strike prevented a team that poor from joining the post-season festivities.

Arizona is 20-8 vs. the NL West, so maybe once they get back to playing intra-division games, their record will rise again.

The Royals defeat the Rockies behind Luke Hochevar 4-2. Combined with the Indians loss (to Barry Zito!), Kansas City moves 1/2 game ahead of Cleveland. They also maintain their MLB best record in interleague play. With the White Sox losing to the Dodgers, the Royals could be seven games out of first by the end of the night.

A few weeks ago it looked like there would be five tight division races this season, with most teams a win streak away from a chance at first place. With June almost 1/3 over, four teams have taken control of their divisions:

Best Winning Percentage in June, 2008

Team	Record	Winning Percentage
Phillies	7-1	.875
White Sox	7-1	.875
Angels	6-2	.750
Red Sox	6-2	.750
Giants	6-2	.750

In each of these streaks by first place teams, they knocked out teams in contention. The Phillies were 4-0 against Florida and Atlanta. The Red Sox swept the Rays. The Angels took two out of three from Oakland, and the White Sox swept a four game series from the Twins. Chicago now holds the biggest lead of any first place team, 6 1/2 games.

Meanwhile, five of the six divisions are down to two team races. Except for the NL West, no third place team is closer than 6 1/2 games. In fact, the NL West went from the least competitive division to one of the most as the Padres and Giants winning streak and Arizona's fall off have brought the top four teams within 6 1/2 games of each other.

Obviously, things can chance quickly. Right now, however, there are eleven teams at about .500, and that's no longer competitive.

The Phillies remain hot, defeating the Braves 6-2 tonight behind the pitching of Kendrick and the bullpen. Kendrick pitched into the sixth, the only runs coming on a two-run shot by Chipper Jones. The best bullpen in the majors then shut the Braves down the rest of the way, allowing one hit and two walks over 3 2/3 innings while striking out six, including the last four batters.

Pat Burrell doubled and homered, Utley tripled, and Rollins drove in two with his fourth homer of the season. With the Marlins losing at the moment, the Phillies lead in the NL east could go to 4 1/2 games.

On this Memorial Day, there are only five team more than 6 1/2 games out of first. The American League, which usually comes down to five or six teams competing for four spots, has 13 of 14 teams in the race in terms of games back, with both the AL East and AL Central five-team races. The only non-competitive division right now is the NL West, and that's still a two-team race. The 1998 expansion teams, Tampa Bay and Arizona both are playing .600 balls, but there are no super teams so far. There seems to be a lot of teams running hot and cold, like the Blue Jays. The NL has gone down to the wire the last few seasons, and we may get to see that in the American League as well in 2008.

The Rays moved ahead of the Red Sox Sunday with a sweep of the Orioles while Bostn was being swept by Oakland. Which team holds first place during the year may depend on which is traveling and which is home:

At Home

2008	Boston	Tampa Bay
Record	21-5	19-8
Runs Per Game	6.0	4.4
Allowed Per Game	3.8	3.1

On the Road

2008	Boston	Tampa Bay
Record	10-17	11-12
Runs Per Game	4.3	4.8
Allowed Per Game	5.1	5.0

The Rays show a more typical home/road scoring pattern with both the offense and defense moving in the same direction away from Tropicana Field. n the Rays case, the pitching is more sensitive to the move than the hitters. The Red Sox are odd. Their batting average goes down 30 points on the road, but their OBA goes down 50 points. Is the batting background that much better at Fenway that Red Sox hitters see balls and strikes better? Or are pitchers just less intimidated outside of Fenway and are willing to throw more strikes? I would think selectivity would be one thing fairly park independent.

The most puzzling thing, of course, is why Red Sox pitchers do poorly in the road? The team is actually walking more at home, giving up more home runs, and striking out fewer batters. They are, however, giving up a lower batting average.

It looks like the difference comes down to pitching with men in scoring position. At home, the Red Sox allow a .225 BA with men in scoring position. On the road, .301. They've actually been in more RISP situations at home, 272 PA at Fenway vs. 249 PA on the road. In other words, the Red Sox ERA at Fenway is likely better than fielding independent pitching would predict.

The Red Sox should be allowing about 4.5 runs per game at home. Even with that level of opponent scoring, the team should post a great home record. A falloff from their current .808 home winning percentage may mean trouble, as Tampa's home/road record looks sustainable.

For a while I've wanted to write Borda Count polling software, but really didn't have the time to invest to do it properly. So when I saw that Google Documents was offering a way to create forms to populate a spreadsheet, I thought I might have something that worked decently. So I put up this survey, asking you to rank the fourteen AL teams by how you believe they'll finish the season. So far, 125 voted, and you can see both the voting and calculated results here. Sheet one contains the voting and sheet two the results.

Update: In looking at the voting results, there appears to be someone who put in lots of Baltimore Orioles votes. I'll see if I can remove those records.

The Red Sox fall to the Twins 7-3. Boston scored in the first inning but that was it as Buchholz was wild tonight, walking five in 4 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, the Rays take down the Yankees 7-1. Garza records a short shutout, lasting seven innings without allowing a run. The Yankees offense continues a listless start of the season.

With the Rays win and the Red Sox loss, Tampa Bay is now just 1/2 game behind the Red Sox in the AL East. The Rays keep setting team records for games over .500, now six.

Gabe Gross walks, steals and scores on a Kapler single as the Brewers defeat the Cardinals 9-8 in twelve innings. The last two games work out well for the Cubs, who once again stifle the Mets offense 8-1. While the Brewers and Cardinals are splitting contests, the Cubs taking two allows them to pull ahead of both NL Central foes.

Gross isn't hitting for average, but that's the ninth walk he's drawn this season in 43 at bats. If he keeps up that kind of selectivity, the hits should come as well.

Carroll hits a fly ball to medium right. Giles catches and throws home, but the throw has a high arc, and Holliday beats the throw just barely. The replay shows that it looks like Holliday never tagged the plate. Matt burned his face on the dirt, so he was just lying there. If Barrett picked up the ball and tried to tag him, there would be an argument. The ump took a second to see if Barrett held on to the ball, and when he saw it was free, he made the safe call.

What a game, what an inning! The Rockies now head to Philadelphia as the two comeback teams meet head on in the NLDS. Congratulations to the Rockies on a great stretch run to win the Wild Card! Holliday was close to being the goat, but he winds up one of the heroes.

The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres in the final game of the regular season today. The Rockies won thirteen of their last fourteen games to earn a tie for the NL Wild Card, forcing a one-game playoff with the Padres. Jake Peavy faces Josh Fogg tonight, with the game starting at 7:30 EDT on TBS (which DirecTV now broadcasts in HD!).

Peavy was simply the best pitcher in the majors this season. He leads in ERA by a whopping 0.65 runs. Jake strikes out close to ten a game while walking less than three. He allowed just eleven home runs all season, better than one every eighteen innings.

And yes, Jake plays in a park that does nothing to help hitters, but if you put Jake on the road he still is first in ERA in the majors. He walks more and allows a home run rate that's a tiny bit higher, but it just doesn't matter where Jake pitched in 2007. This is his first game at Coors in 2007, but he's pitched well there in his career.

Josh Fogg pitched to his career averages this season. His strikeout, walk and home run totals were very close to what you'd expect based on the career of the pitcher. Coors was not kind to him, as he posted a 5.66 ERA there vs. 4.16 on the road.

Fogg's went up and down with the months, with high ERAs in April, June and August and low ERAs in May, July and September. In fact, Fogg getting hot in the final month contributed to the Rockies making it this far. He defeated contenders Arizona, Los Angeles and San Diego in the month, posting a 3.25 ERA. Most importantly, he allowed just one home run down the stretch, 0.33 HR per nine innings versus 1.41 the rest of the season.

And his teammates have a special name for him:

"We call him the dragon slayer," Holliday said. "He's been beating aces all year long."

He hung a loss on Brandon Webb twice and such notables as Rich Hill, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Mike Mussina and Orlando Hernandez. He out-pitched Brad Penny in the stretch drive, although Penny didn't get the loss. So the final day of the season comes down to David Fogg vs. Goliath Peavy. And David had some success with the slingshot this season.

Enjoy!

Balls, Sticks and Stuff basks in the glory of the Phillies comeback. His wife sums it up best:

Nomination for quote of the day on Sunday comes from The Missus during the late innings: "I've never seen so many smiling Philadelphians."

I don't really buy the Jimmy Rollins for MVP argument. He wasn't the best hitting shortstop in the NL East (Ramirez) nor the best hitter on his team (Utley, despite the injury). The problem is most people ahead of him didn't play on winning teams, and Utley was in fact injured, missing a month of the season. So Rollins will accumulate quite a few votes.

Update: According to Baseball Prospectus, the Mets collapse was the second biggest in history, just behind the 1995 Angels. That's based on fall from the highest probability of making the playoffs, based on BP's monte carlo method. On August 20th, 1995, the Angels had a 99.988% of making the playoffs. The Mets were 99.80 at their peak on September 12th. Now if you factor in time, I think the Mets fall was worse, but not much. The Angels peaking in late August says they were a great team in a weak division with weak wild cards. The Mets were a good team with a big lead late.

Here's the story on the playoff game tomorrow:

This battle needs an extra game, No. 163. The victory -- the Rockies' 13th in 14 games -- in front of 46,375, coupled with the Padres' 11-6 loss to the Brewers, forged a tie for the National League Wild Card. The Padres and Rockies will meet at Coors Field on Monday at 5:37 p.m. MT.

The winner will face the NL East champion Phillies on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park in the Division Series.

The Phillies defeat the Nationals 6-1 to complete an improbable comeback. They play eight games better than the Mets down the stretch, nosing them out for the NL East championship by one game. Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard collected the big hits, Rollins racing for his twentieth triple to equal Granderson's 20 doubles, 20 triples and 20 home run season. He scored twice. Howard hit his 47th home run of the year. It's also his 11th of the month, his best month for home runs.

Congratulations to the Phillies on winning the NL East, even if it means no four-way tie!

Glavine walks the first batter, then gets a force out. The Marlins get his measure after that as four straight hits plate four runs. Ross' double clears the bases on a sloppy play in which Cabrera ran through a stop sign and scored, then Glavine threw the ball away as Ross tried to go to third, and he scores as well. He just walked Treanor, and another hit loads the bases.

Update: Glavine hits Willis, and it's 5-0.

Update: Sosa is on in relief.

Update: Sosa get Ramirez, but Uggla doubles in two more runs. It's 7-0 in the first and the Mets are really buried. The four way tie is on life support.

Jim Salisbury notes the Phillies were in a similar situation in 1950:

This isn't the first time a Phillies season has come down to the last day. It did so in the torturous 1964 season and again in 2005. Both times the Phillies won the final game, but missed the playoffs.

In 1950, the year of the Whiz Kids, the Phils won the National League pennant on the final day, beating the Brooklyn Dodgers on Dick Sisler's three-run homer in the 10th.

Hall of Famer Robin Roberts pitched all 10 innings that day.

The Phillies led the Dodgers by one game that day in 1950, so a loss would have forced a playoff. Today, a win means they'll at least play Monday.

The Rockies trounce the Diamondbacks 11-1, gaining a game on the Phillies and the Padres. The four-way tie scenario is still in place as the three games that needed specific outcomes went the right way. Here's what needs to happen tomorrow:

• Mets win.
• Phillies win.
• San Diego loses.
• Colorado wins.

The first two happening means a playoff for the NL East title on Monday. The third happening as well means the loser on Monday needs to play at least one more game Tuesday. All four and the NLDS gets delayed. It should be an exciting Sunday!

Update: I'm seeing on the Baseball Prospectus chatter the odds of a four-way tie are 12.6%. Much better than I thought.

Update: I see that the Padres are going to pitch Tomko tomorrow instead of Peavy. They'd rather have Jake go on full rest for a playoff, or be ready to start game 1 if it doesn't happen. Tomko instead of Peavy makes me a little more confident of a Padres loss tomorrow.

Also, if the Mets, Phillies and Padres lose tomorrow and the Rockies win, there will be two playoff games on Monday, one for the NL East and one for the Wild Card.

The Cleveland Indians lose to the Royals, 4-3, giving the Red Sox home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Boston has one hour to decide if they want the extra-day off in the playoffs (I believe the Indians game ended at 10:19 PM EDT).

The Red Sox defeat the Twins 6-4 on a three-run home run by J.D. Drew in the seventh. The win reduces the Red Sox magic number to one for clinching the best record in the league and home field through the playoffs. Cleveland is currently losing 3-2 in the seventh, so it might happen tonight.

Drew hasn't been popular with the Boston fans, as his .500 slugging percentage didn't show up. But his long ball tonight was his fourth of the month and he's slugging well over .500 in September. I think Red Sox fans will forgive his season if he keeps that hot hitting through the playoffs.

Vinny Rottino singles in Ryan Braun in the bottom of the eleventh, and the Brewers spoil the Padres chance at clinching a playoff berth. Ryan doubled earlier in the inning. That means the four way tie is still alive, and if the Rockies can win, it lives for another day. Also, the Diamondbacks clinch the NL West, because they win the tie breaker with San Diego.

The Mets defeat the Marlins 13-0 to stay alive in the NL East. They'll play a meaningful game tomorrow. Six players picked up multiple hits, with Milledge's two homers being the highlight of the day offensively. Maine set a career high striking out 14 in 7 2/3 innings, leaving after giving up the first Marlins hit of the day.

The Mets also preserve a chance at a four way tie. San Diego needs to lose to make that happen.

With the Phillies in first, Todd Zolecki points out this fact:

It has been said before, but it is worth repeating for fans and a franchise that has not lived October baseball since 1993: No team in baseball history has blown a seven-game lead with 17 games to play.

The Mets could be the first.

The Phillies are 12-3 since they trailed the Mets by seven on Sept. 12.

The Mets are 4-11.

As the headline screamed in yesterday's New York Post: "Paging Dr. Heimlich."

Meanwhile, a great headline at the NY Post, METS HAVE VIEW FROM THE FLOP.

In the clubhouse afterward, David Wright confirmed his humiliation. The choked-up third baseman's words were enough.

"Personally I'm embarrassed," Wright said after a fifth straight defeat slid the Mets into second place. "I think it's embarrassing. It's pretty pathetic that we have this division within our grasp with seven home games and we can't find a way to win one of them."

The cover is pretty good too, "You Gotta Bereave!"

Lisa Olson at the New appreciates the Mets creativity:

It's not easy to blow a season in such astonishing fashion. But that's exactly what the Mets have done, losing to the Marlins, 7-4, last night and falling a game behind Philadelphia in the National League East race with two games to play. It's rare to hit three batters in one inning, but that's what Oliver Perez did in a start he needed to control, in a game the Mets had to win.

Duck! Here comes another Perez slider, an arrow zipping around the target.

Duck! There go the Mets, the team with the highest payroll and the most talent in the National League, collapsing like a house made of toothpicks.

The New York Times profiles the unofficial Mets poet, Frank Messina. From Thursday's game:

Do you know what it's like

To be chased by the Ghost of Failure

While staring through Victory's door?

Of course you do, you're a Mets fan.

However, the Mets failures rarely include late season chokes. They're more about seven year stretches of second division teams and a few bad playoff losses. But if this collapse plays out, Frank will need to write an epic.

Friday turned out badly for a massive tie. The four-way for the wild card and NL east is still possible, but much less likely. Here's how we get there:

Team	Record
Rockies	2-0
Mets	2-0
Phillies	1-1
Padres	0-2

A win by the Padres and there's no massive tie. The best we could do at that point is have the Mets and Phillies tie for the east and hold a one-game playoff on Monday, which would still be very exciting. But if the Padres win, they're at least the wild card.

Trevor Hoffman strikes out Rickie Weeks in the ninth, and the Padres defeat the Brewers 6-3. That ends Milwaukee's season as the Chicago Cubs win the NL Central title, the second National League team to claim a playoff spot. Congratulations to the Cubs on a great comeback season. The off-season moves paid off as Soriano, Lilly and Marquis all turned out to be major contributors to the Cubs success, and Lou Piniella kept the team moving toward victory. Congratulations to the Cubs on going from worst to first!

Correction: I forgot that with the Mets losing, the Diamondbacks clinched a playoff spot. They'll either win the west or the wild card, because there can't be a four-way tie involving the Mets, Phillies Diamondbacks and Padres. The DBacks were the first team to clinch. Originally, I thought it was the Cubs. The post was changed to reflect reality.

After a double and a passed ball in the bottom of the tenth, the Yankees intentionally load the bases. Ramirez strikes out Millar, but Mora drops a bunt to third and the winning run scores as the Orioles take the Yankees 10-9.

That loss settles a number of things in the AL East. The Yankees fail to finish at the top of the division for the first time since 1997. Since the Red Sox are now division champs, the Angels can't finish with the best record in the league, since Boston holds the tie breaker. Cleveland is two outs away from winning, and if they hold on, they'll be one of the top two teams in the league. So with two outs in KC, the ALDS will be set with Boston hosting LAnaheim and Cleveland hosting New York.

Update: Cleveland wins 5-3, Sabathia wins his 19th game and the Indians get to play the Yankees in the ALDS. Now we just need to see if the Indians or the Red Sox win the choice of the extra day off.

The Rockies put two men on in the ninth, but Valverde strikes out the other three batters to prevent them from advancing, and the Diamondbacks win 4-2, clinching at least a tie for the wild card. The Diamondbacks actually celebrated that on the field! They're a young team, and given their run difference, a pretty major accomplishment. The Rockies can't win the west as they drop to three games back, but they still have a shot at the wild card. San Diego is winning 6-3, however, going to the bottom of the ninth.

Correction: I forgot that with the Mets losing, the Diamondbacks clinched a playoff spot. They'll either win the west or the wild card, because there can't be a four-way tie involving the Mets, Phillies Diamondbacks and Padres. The DBacks were the first team to clinch. That's why they were celebrating.

The Marlins defeat the Mets 7-4 as the Florida pen pitches four scoreless innings in relief of Kim, who gets the win for five less than stellar innings. Ramirez and Uggla were the offensive stars at the top of the order, combining for four hits, a walk and five runs scored.

The loss drops the Mets one game behind the Phillies in the NL East race. It also make Rollins early season boast that the Phillies were the team to beat two wins closer to reality.

The Cubs finish off the Reds 6-0, clinching a tie for the NL Central. As the game finishes, they notice the Padres have taken a 4-3 lead on the Brewers. Back-to-back doubles by Gonzalez and Greene plate the go-ahead run in the top of the sixth.

Breaking Balls wonders who Bud Black should pitch on Sunday. If they have to win, he throws Peavy. And what the hell, if he has to pitch somebody the next day, any other pitcher on short rest is better than Tomko. I throw Cassel out there and hope the bullpen is rested.

The Mets flipped for home field in case of a Wild Card tie yesterday. I updated this post. The Mets play at Colorado or host San Diego.

On Sept. 17, 1964, the Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Dodgers 4-3 to open a 6 1/2 game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals. Philadelphia lost twelve of their next thirteen games to fall 2 1/2 games back in the race. They won their last two games, but two little too late. The Cardinals finished the season on an 11-5 tear and won the NL and the World Series. Gene Mauch's name became synonymous with late season collapses.

On Sept. 12, 2007, the Mets defeated Atlanta 4-3 to go up seven games in the NL East. Since that time, the Mets are 4-10 while the Phillies have posted an 11-3 record to tie the Mets with three games to go. It's too bad Gene is not around anymore, I'm sure he'd enjoy this turnaround.

Using the Day by Day Database, I looked at run differences in the NL through 9/17/1964. The Phillies owned the largest difference, but it wasn't large enough to put them up 6 1/2 games:

Run Difference Though 9/17/1964, NL Teams

Team	Run Difference
Phillies	82
Reds	78
Pirates	61
Giants	52
Cardinals	46
Dodgers	29

Like the 2007 NL, no team stood out in terms of both batting and pitching. So the Phillies lead was on a shaky foundation, and regression to the mean happened with a vengeance. Through 9/12, the Mets were in first place in the NL with a +71, and four teams were within 10 of that. The Phillies were +37. It's an excellent parallel.

Home Run Derby points out that a pledge by Brewers fans seems to have saved a lot of laundry bills.

It's a final in Los Angeles as the Rockies defeat the Dodgers 10-4. With the Rockies winning tonight, they are two games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks going into a three game series. That means it's impossible for the two teams to finish even, killing the chance for a five way tie. However, four way ties are still possible.

There are two possibilities that lead to three days of playoffs:

Team	Record
Rockies	3-0
Phillies	2-1
Mets	2-1
Padres	1-2
Diamondbacks	0-3

In this case, the Rockies finish first in the NL West with ninety wins, while the four other teams are tied at eighty nine. The Mets and Phillies hold a one game playoff in Philadelphia, then the loser joins San Diego and Arizona in a two day, two game wild card tournament. This also works if the Rockies go 2-1. In that case, Arizona wins the division, and the Rockies take the Diamondbacks' place in the Wild Card tournament.

The other four way tie possibility goes like this:

Team	Record
Rockies	3-0
Phillies	3-0
Mets	3-0
Padres	2-1
Diamondbacks	0-3

In this case, the Rockies, Phillies, Mets and Padres are all tied, but the Diamondbacks get no chance to advance. There would be two playoff games on Monday for the division championship, then the two losers meet on Tuesday to determine the Wild Card winner.

I like the first four-way tie better, because it keeps more teams involved and takes longer to sort out. Not only does it have a higher probability of happening, but it's possible for the Brewers to tie the Cubs as well! It's also possible that the Mets, Phillies, Rockies and Padres all sweep, which would cause a three-way tie for the Wild Card between the Mets, Phillies and Rockies, also requiring a two-day playoff. In that one, the Mets and Phillies play for the NL East title in Philadelphia, with the loser playing Colorado the next day. The Phillies would play in Denver, but we don't know where New York would play because they didn't include the Mets in the tie-breaker flip for the Wild Card!

It's going to be a fun weekend. One nice thing, no matter what happens tomorrow, the better four way tie stays in play.

Correction: Fixed the result of the four team sweep. It wasn't a three-way tie for the wild card, it was an NL East playoff, then a wild card playoff, although for all intents and purposes, Colorado gets the Monday off.

Update: There was a coin toss yesterday.

MLB flipped a coin yesterday to decide the host of more possible two-team wild-card tiebreaker games on Monday. The Mets won two out of three. They would host the Padres or the Diamondbacks. But if the Mets have to face the Rockies, they would have to fly to Denver.

The Padres defeat the Brewers 9-5, the difference in the game the four unearned runs allowed by Milwaukee. The Brewers DER is low this year, and while they don't lead the league in errors, they're just another manifestation of balls getting through for hits.

For the second night in a row, Milwaukee fails to capitalize on a Cubs loss. They remain two games out with three to play. San Diego goes into the final weekend one game behind the Diamondbacks, and one game ahead of the Mets and Phillies in the wild card race, with the Colorado game pending.

Atkins and Hawpe go back-to-back in the top of the fourth inning against the Dodgers to take a 3-0 lead. If the Rockies win, the five team tie is an impossibility. I'm torn here, for as much as I'd like to see a five-way tie, I'd like to see the Rockies do well, too.

The Yankees rested five of their regulars tonight against Scott Kazmir and the Devil Rays. Damon, Giambi and Matsui started, but the rest of the team took the night off. With Philip Hughes on the mound, it was a relatively young team for New York. Kazmir pitched well, striking out ten over six innings to pass Johan Santana for the AL lead. But he had to leave after 100 pitches, with a 1-1 tie, and the Yankees took advantage of the Rays bullpen scoring twice to win the game 3-1. Philip Hughes didn't pitch as well, but lasted seven inning to make his one run hold up for the win.

Meanwhile in Boston, the Red Sox put most of the A-Team on the field, including starting pitcher Josh Beckett as they tried to close out the division. Despite a four for four night by Ortiz, in which he picked up a double and a home run, they fall to the Twins 5-4. They did load the bases in the ninth off Joe Nathan, but the Twins closer pulled out the game.

The Yankees are now two games out of first with three to play, and just need to gain those two games to win the division as they hold the tie-breaker with the Red Sox.

Correction: Changed Burkett to Beckett. Brain death is setting in.

The Mets finally got a well pitched game. Pedro helped save the bullpen by going seven innings, striking out eight and allowing three runs. The bullpen pitched two scoreless innings.

Unfortunately, Joel Pineiro and Jason Isringhausen combined to shutout the Mets. For the last ten games, the Mets lost despite a great offense. Today the pitching came through, but the offense didn't show up. With Philadelphia winning 6-4, there's now a tie for first place in the NL East.

The Marlins sweep the Cubs, winning by a score of 6-4 today. If the Brewers win the NL Central, they should send the Marlins a thank-you note.

Arizona finishes off Pittsburgh 8-0. That makes a five way tie tougher. Colorado has to lose tonight then sweep the DBacks in Denver for that to happen. Still, hope springs eternal. The win is big for Arizona, however, as one win against Colorado, no matter the outcome of tonight's game, eliminates the Rockies from winning the division. Arizona's magic number against the Padres is currently three, although it might be two, since the DBacks own the tie breaker over San Diego. If AZ remains ahead of the Mets and Phillies, then they just need to tie San Diego to win the division.

For example, if the Mets and Phillies go 0-4, the DBacks go 1-2 and the Padres go 3-1. The Dbacks win the division, but the sum of Arizona wins and San Diego losses is 2. The Padres take the wild card in this situation, since the best Colorado does is 88 wins.

One commenter asked in this post, "What happens if there is a five-way tie???" Chris gave the basic explanation there, but to help out, here's the list coin flip results for two way ties. So, if the Mets and Phillies are tied, they play Monday in Philadelphia.

Breaking the three-way tie in the west would be trickier. If a three way tie happens, Colorado will have the best combined record between the three teams, with Arizona second and San Diego third. Colorado gets to select if it wants to play at home on day one, and then at home on day two if they win, or on the road for game two only. My guess is they take the day off. Arizona would then likely take the first home game, and the winner would host Colorado on Tuesday.

The loser of the NL East game, and the losers of the Monday and Tuesday games in the NL West, meet in another two game tournament on Wednesday and Thursday. We'll deal with that possibility when we get there, but right now the Rockies have a winning record against all other opponents.

While the four AL teams are set, the matchups are still to be determined. We may know by the end of the day, however, as a Cleveland win or a LAnaheim loss means the Indians will play the wild card from the AL East. The Indians hold the tie-breaker with the Angels. So if Cleveland wins tonight, they will get home field in the first round.

Then, a Yankees loss and a Red Sox win means Boston wins the east, so in that case the playoffs are set. Right now, it looks like New York plays Cleveland and Boston plays LAnaheim.

The Padres win 11-3 as Jake Peavy wins his nineteenth game of the season. He finishes with a 2.36 ERA and with only one K tonight, 234 strikeouts in 217 innings. Looks like he's more than earned the Cy Young award this season.

It was a great day for the massive tie scenario. Although the Braves lost, eliminating the six team tie, The Mets and Diamondbacks leads are down to one. Here is the only way the tie can happen at this point:

Team	Record
Rockies	3-1
Phillies	3-1
Padres	2-2
Mets	2-2
Diamondbacks	1-3

Thursday's Rockies and Diamondbacks games are very important. The two teams need to have opposite outcomes, or a tie between the two is not possible. Given that, here's what to look for tomorrow:

• Arizona does the opposite of the Rockies. Losing to Pittsburgh makes the odds of a five way tie higher, however.
• Philadelphia defeats Atlanta.
• New York defeats St. Louis.
• San Diego defeats Milwaukee.
• Colorado does the opposite of Arizona. Defeating Los Angeles makes the odds of the five way tie higher, however.

Remember, if the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies are an even number of games back going into their three game series, there can't be a tie. Given that the DBacks play at 12:30 EDT (bring those radios to school), we'll know what Colorado needs about six hours before they play the Dodgers.

Correction: Fixed the W-L table. Because of the need to be an odd number of games out, the Rockies can't go 4-0 and still get a tie. That's why I shouldn't write at 1 AM. :(

Matt Morris' veteran presence trumped Livan Hernandez's tonight as the Pirates defeated the Diamondbacks 5-1. Livan gave up ten hits in four innings, while Matt struck out seven and walked none over seven innings, allowing just one run.

The five-way massive tie is doing well tonight, as the Phillies won and the Mets and DBacks lose. San Diego and Colorado are both winning early.

The Yankees win 12-4, capturing a berth in the AL Playoffs for the 13th consecutive season. Damon, Jeter and Posada each picked up three hits, and Cano collected two hits, one a homer, and five RBI.

It caps quite a season for New York. They were .500 at the break after being as many as eight games under at the end of June. They've gone 48-24 in the second half to reach 91 wins and likely a wild card slot. Congratulations to the Yankees on a great comeback! It was all offense as the pitching staff posted a higher ERA after the break, but the offense scored 6.5 runs per game, which is more than enough for a team with an ERA around 4.50.

The Colorado Rockies held on to defeat the Dodgers last night 9-7. Each team scored in each of the last four half innings, but the Rockies won that mini-game, too, 3-2. Colorado gains on every team except the Padres, who won on a Giles home in the ninth inning. Here's the update on the highest winning percentage outcome resulting in a five-way tie:

Team	Record
Rockies	5-0
Phillies	5-0
Padres	4-1
Mets	3-2
Diamondbacks	2-3

Note that because the Rockies finish with three games against the Diamondbacks, those two teams have to be separated by an odd number of games going into the series. If Arizona splits the next two and the Rockies win both, a tie can't happen. Over the next two games we either want the teams to have the same record, or for Arizona to lose two and the Rockies to win two.

But with Atlanta winning last night, there's now a remote chance of a six-way tie.

Team	Record
Braves	5-0
Rockies	3-2
Phillies	3-2
Padres	2-3
Mets	1-4
Diamondbacks	0-5

The problem with this scenario is that very specific outcomes are required. The Phillies have to lose two to Atlanta and win their last three games. The Rockies have to lose their next two to Los Angeles, then sweep the Diamondbacks. But there is the kernel of another five way tie here. If you drop Arizona from the list, then there is a little more flexibility in getting those five teams even at the end of the season.

So with five days left, we have a long shot at a six-way tie, and two possibilities for a five way tie. On top of all that, the Brewers gained a game on the Cubs, so we could end up with a tie in the NL Central as well. There is a very small chance that the regular season ends with half the National League teams still in the playoff hunt.

As for today, here are the best results:

• Atlanta or Philadelphia wins. This is the tough one to call. The Braves winning keeps the six-way alive, but lessens the chance of a five-way involving the DBacks, which is the most likely five way. Root for the Braves here to keep the most teams alive.
• Pittsburgh defeats Arizona. Not necessary for a five-way, but the more Arizona loses, the less the need for a Colorado sweep.
• Washington defeats the New York Mets.
• Colorado defeats Los Angeles. Tomorrow will present critical games for Arizona and Colorado, as they need to be an odd number of games apart going into their three-game series.
• Giants or Padres win. It's probably better for the Padres to lose for the six-way, but win for the higher probability five-way.

As always, I'm not rooting for or against any team here. I understand there are fans who want their team to win outright. But a six-way tie results in two days of playoff to determine the division winners, then two days of playoffs to determine the wild card. Who doesn't want seven extra single elimination games?

Correction: Fixed the six-way chart.

The Yankees lose 7-6 in ten innings as former New York prospect Dioner Navarro homers to win the game in a walk off. The twenty-three year old catcher has started to come around, batting .306 since the start of August. He was a hot prospect when the Yankees traded him and other for Randy Johnson. Looks like he starting to realize his potential.

With the Tigers win, the Yankees magic number remains at one over Detroit, and Seattle can still tie as well as they start a series with Cleveland.

The Phillies collect six hits tonight, but four of them are homers. The long balls produce five runs, as many as Atlanta picked up with two dingers. But Atlanta kept hitting, knocking out thirteen safeties to take the game 10-6. They gain a game on the Phillies in the wild card race, and may gain a game overall if the Padres lose.

Three teams involved in division races all have given up four runs already. The Mets are down 4-2, the Marlins lead the Cubs 4-0, and the Braves are up 4-1 on the Phillies. Dontrelle Willis has a single and is now batting .283 on the season.

Cleveland leads the race for best record in the American League, and as far as the Yankees are concerned, they lead Anaheim by one game, two in the loss column. If the season ends like this, as the Wild Card the Yankees draw Cleveland, but if they win the division, New York ends up playing LAnaheim. Although I'm sure they'll say publicly they don't care, the Yankees likely prefer facing the Indians. That doesn't give them a lot of incentive to finish tied or ahead of Boston. The Yankees are 6-0 against Cleveland this year, 3-6 against LAnaheim, and the Yankees have lost the two times they played the Angels in the post season.

The Padres fell to the Giants last night 9-4 as Chris Young pitches another poor game. Zito didn't pitch much better, but the Padres timing was worse as they went 4 for 15 with runners in scoring position vs. 6 for 16 for the Giants.

The loss reduces the Diamondbacks magic number to four. It increases the chance for a three way wild card tie but a tie involving the Diamondbacks is looking iffy. We still have a shot at the Mets tying the three wild card contenders, however, resulting in three days of playoffs.

Here are the outcomes that result in the highest winning percentage.

Team	Record
Rockies	6-0
Phillies	5-1
Padres	5-1
Mets	3-3
Diamondbacks	2-4

In order to help this along, look for these results today:

• Philadelphia defeats Atlanta
• Pittsburgh defeats Arizona
• Washington defeats New York
• Colorado defeats Los Angeles
• San Diego defeats San Francisco

Colorado really holds the key here. With three games against Arizona, they have the opportunity to pull this all together the last weekend of the season.

The Brewers score six unearned runs as they defeat the Cardinals 13-5. Wainwright gives up nine runs but only four are earned. Still, Wainwright didn't exactly pitch well as he allowed ten base runners and threw two wild pitches in five innings of work.

The top of the Brewers order was scary tonight as they go nine for eighteen with two walks. They scored ten of the thirteen runs. The win puts the Brewers even with the Cubs in games played, three behind Chicago.

The Nationals pound the Mets 13-4 tonight. Mike Pelfrey allows five hits and five walks in 5 2/3 innings, letting seven runs cross the plate. He's walked 39 in 72 2/3 innings this season, and that lack of control won't win him many games. The Phillies make up a loss, and now sit two games back of New York with six to play. The Mets have allowed 70 runs in their last nine games, which actually makes their 4-5 record in that time rather impressive.

Correction: Fixed spelling of Pelfrey.

The Minnesota Twins shutout the Detroit Tigers 2-0 tonight, reducing the Yankees magic number to one. Carlos Silva gets a short shutout as he goes 7 2/3 innings. He didn't walk a batter, and he only struck out one.

Silva's made a nice recovery from last year. With low strikeout totals, he still gives up a lot of hits. But he's cut his home runs allowed in half from last year, and his ERA is back to his career average.

I'm surprised to see a Brewers fan conceding the Central:

A good friend from Faribault has tickets for next weekend's series between the Padres and Brewers at Miller Park. He had hoped to see the Brewers clinch a playoff spot, but now, he'll have to settle for seeing if the Padres can hold their 1/2-game lead for the NL wild-card. The Phillies and Rockies (1 1/2 games back) are making that very interesting. From an e-mail he sent last night:

What a frustrating weekend to be a Brewers fan. I've conceded the Central to the Corporate Cubs, but like I heard someone on Fox say yesterday, I think their best days are yet to come. I don't like the fact that they sort of choked the NL Central in a rare year that both St. Louis and Houston struggled, but from it I think a lot of the young players have learned from being in a division race. Too bad for Geoff Jenkins, after being there for so many bad seasons. It would've been nice for him to make the playoffs while still a Brewer. ... The Milwaukee area has rallied around this team; I hope they weren't a one hit wonder.

These are the Cubs you are chasing! The heartbreak kids! If a team can find a way to blow a 3 1/2 game lead with a week left in the season, surely it's the Cubs.

The Dodgers defeat the Diamondbacks 7-1 to keep all the NL West and Wild Card contenders close. Arizona is now 19-25 in blowouts, games decided by five or more runs. If you look at the box score, you'll notice Melvin didn't use his good relievers. One reason the Diamondbacks have been outscored this year is that Melvin doesn't waste his good relievers when the game gets out of hand.

So the Diamondbacks loss keeps the chance of a massive tie alive. Here's the outcomes that provide a tie with the highest winning percentage:

Team	Record
Rockies	6-0
Phillies	5-1
Padres	5-2
Mets	3-4
Diamondbacks	2-4

Sure, it remains a long shot, but a three way tie for the wild card is looking very good right now.

The Rockies set a franchise record with their 84th win as they defeat the Padres 7-3. Jeff Francis gets the win, his 17th, tying a franchise record. They've won 8 in a row, and in sweeping the Padres are just 1 1/2 games out of the wild card lead. In addition, they win the season series 10-8 against San Diego, giving Colorado the tie-breaker if the two teams end up tied for the division and the wild card.

Colorado has now outscored their opponents by 82 runs this year, the best in the NL. I don't know if they'll make the playoffs, but they sure deserve a spot.

The Angels sent the fans home happy today as they defeat the Mariners 7-4, clinching the AL West title. They get an excellent game from John Lackey who allows just two runs over seven innings, lowering his ERA to 3.11 and picking up his 18th win. One thing I like about the Angels offense this season is that they are walking more. With five today they have 489 on the season; if they get to 495 it will be the second highest total in the Scioscia era.

Congratulations to the Angels on their return to the playoffs! They're a dangerous team, with great front line pitching, a stellar bullpen and a huge offensive threat in Vlad Guerrero.

I thought Chamberlain would get the one batter in the eighth and then leave the game, but he pitched the ninth as well, striking out two more batters and picking up his first save. And it was a real save as he came in with two men on and got four outs.

Even more importantly, Mike Mussina pitched well again. He lasted seven innings, using 97 pitches and allowing three runs. The Yankees, with their offense, will win a lot of games with starts like that.

New York can clinch a playoff spot tomorrow with an afternoon win over the Blue Jays and an evening loss by Detroit.

The Cubs may end up being the first team in the NL to clinch as they extend their lead to 3 1/2 games with an 8-0 drubbing of the Pirates. Zambrano picked up a short shutout as he struck out six batters through six innings. The bullpen did not give up a hit, and Lee and Cedeno each drove in three runs. The Cubs scored 30 runs in their last three games.

Meanwhile, the Brewers fell to the Braves 7-4. Chicago's magic number is down to four with six games to play. Milwaukee is also going to face San Diego in their last series, and the way the NL Wild Card/West race is going, the Padres are going to be playing for their post-season life. It's looking very good for Chicago right now.

The Red Sox lose 5-4 to the Devil Rays. Tampa Bay both out-hit and out-walked the Red Sox today, putting 15 batters on base to the Red Sox 9. The Yankees are up 7-5 in the eighth, so if they hold on the Red Sox lead will be down to 1 1/2. Earlier during the Yankees broadcast, they reported that Torre said getting his team ready for the playoffs was more important than winning the east.

Joba Chamberlain comes on in the eighth with two on and two out, breaking the Joba rules.

Update: Joba strikes out Lind swinging, and the Yankees are three outs away from reducing their playoff magic number to two.

The LAnaheim Angels get off to an early 3-0 lead as Kotchman and Iztuis homer off Jeff Weaver in the bottom of the second. It looks like Jeff will finish the season with an ERA over 6.00.

With a 6-2 lead in the top of the ninth, the Indians are three outs away to returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Betancourt is on to nail down the win.

Update: Cust strikes out looking on a pitch that looked out of the strike zone. One out.

Update: Piazza pops out to second. It's up to Ellis.

Update: Ellis strikes out swinging, and the Indians are champions of the AL Central. They've been rebuilding for a while, with a target date of 2006 for returning to the playoffs. They missed that by a year, but with a great offense and top notch front line pitching, Cleveland gets a chance to break their 59-year World Championship drought. Congratulations to the Indians on winning the AL Central!

Robinson Cano singles home Bobby Abreu in the bottom of the fifth to give the Yankees a 4-3 lead over Toronto. At the same time, the Red Sox cut the Devil Rays lead to 4-3 in the top of the sixth, picking up a base at a time. The Red Sox have the bases loaded with one out and have scored on an infield hit by Ortiz, a walk to Drew and a single by Crisp.

Update: Switzer comes in and gets Hinske to ground into a double play to end the Red Sox threat.

Update: The Yankees get two more runs as the 8 & 9 hitters, Mientkiewicz & Molina each pick up an RBI single. They're a combined 3 for 5 with 3 RBI this afternoon.

The Diamondbacks and Rockies won last night, defeating the Dodgers and the Padres respectively, both by a score of 6-2. The Diamondbacks showed last night why they are a force to be reckoned with in close games. Webb pitched decently through 6 1/3 innings, but Arizona then brought in their four best relievers, Slaten, Pena, Lyon and Valverde. The quartet did not allow a hit or walk the rest of the way, with one batter reaching via an error. The four have combined for a 2.74 ERA this season. The win also eliminates the Dodgers from a shot at the NL West title.

The Rockies bullpen needed to do more work, but performed almost as well. Faced with 14 outs to record, the Padres managed just one hit and one walk off the Colorado relievers. On the offensive side, Hawpe collected four hits and drove in two. The Rockies picked up eleven singles, with Hawpe's double the only extra-base hit for the team in the game. The Rockies have outscored their opponents 48-21 in the seven game streak, with eight runs allowed coming in one game.

Yesterday's results were both good and bad for the massive tie scenario. As Arizona keeps winning, the Mets become a better choice for the division tie, and we still have a shot at a three way wild card tie. Here's the best winning percentage scenario for a five-way tie:

Team	Record
Rockies	7-0
Phillies	5-2
Padres	5-3
Mets	4-4
Diamondbacks	2-5

The Rockies finish with three games against Arizona, so the Dodgers and Pirates are going to need to win a game each against the Diamondbacks to even make this possible.

The Mariners squeak by the Angels 3-2 this afternoon, keeping hope alive in the AL West. Putz gave the Angels a chance in the bottom of the ninth as two men reached base, but he induced Guerrero to ground out and then struck out Anderson, only allowing one run. The Angels clinching party will wait for another day.

The good news for the Angels in the game is that Bartolo Colon pitched well. He managed eight innings of work, throwing just 90 pitches, 67 for strikes. That's a huge improvement over his first start back from injury, and a healthy Colon makes that rotation even more flexible.

Except for Arizona winning, it was a good night for the massive tie scenario. In a fourteen inning pitching duel, Colorado defeated the Padres 2-1. Adrian Gonzalez hit the first pitch from Corpas in the bottom of the ninth for a home run to tie the game, then Hawpe hit the game winner in the top of the fourteenth. The teams combined for just twelve hits.

Here's the highest winning percentage outcome that ends in a tie:

Team	Record
Rockies	8-0
Phillies	6-2
Mets	5-4
Padres	5-4
Diamondbacks	3-5

As the Diamondbacks keep winning, the Rockies/Phillies/Mets/Padres tie becomes more plausable. The Cubs and Brewers both won, keeping that race close but with Chicago still in control. The Red Sox and Indians won while the Angels lost, meaning no team has clinched more than a tie, but now Cleveland controls best record in the division, with Boston sitting on the second seed.

Thursday's results were pretty good for the massive tie scenario. Three of the trailing teams won, and the Mets lost. Here's the updated best winning percentage scenario:

Team	Record
Rockies	9-0
Phillies	7-2
Mets	6-4
Padres	5-5
Diamondbacks	4-5

The Rockies, Phillies, Mets and Padres all tying leads to a three-day playoff as well. And a reader points out the following:

Team	Record
Braves	9-0
Phillies	6-3
Mets	5-5

Under the above, the three Phillies losses come against the Braves. I'd rather see a two way tie in the NL Central, so I'll root for the Brewers to beat the Braves. To bring the teams closer to the big tie, look for the following results:

• Pittsburgh defeats Chicago
• Milwaukee defeats Atlanta
• Philadelphia defeats Washington
• Either Florida or New York win, although a Florida win gets us closer in the East
• Colorado defeats San Diego
• Los Angeles defeats Arizona

The Angels put themselves in a position to be the first team to clinch a playoff spot with a 9-5 win over the Mariners last night. Jered Weaver put in a lackluster performance, but Scot Shields appears to be back in the groove. He pitched two perfect innings, striking out three. And although his ERA in the second half is 7.52, Scot pitched well over his last seven appearances. The strikeouts and walks are especially good.

Seattle did do a little head hunting last night, and I like the way Vlad responded the first time he got knocked down:

Guerrero hit the deck on a Campillo pitch in the fourth inning, then dug in and hit a two-run homer off the right-hander, standing at home plate and watching as the ball cleared the fence.

In the sixth, Campillo threw at Vlad again, leading to the benches clearing the Campillo getting ejected from the game. I'm guessing he won't be playing for a while, per the commissioner's office.

Joe Saunders gets the chance to clinch the division tonight.

The Milwaukee Brewers lose 3-1 to the Braves. The Brewers offense was flat as Bennett made an impressive return and the Braves bullpen threw 3 1/3 hitless innings.

But the big news is that Cubs appear to have made up a loss. The two top NL Central teams were tied in the AFILC this morning, but now the the Brewers appear to have one more loss that the Cubs! I'm going to have to study this further, but this seems to be proof that you can make up the losses!

The Dodgers fall 9-4 to the Rockies, as Colorado keeps their playoff hopes alive with a four game sweep. They outscore Los Angeles 27-18 in the series, sending the Dodgers to the brink of elimination. The Rockies travel to San Diego for three games against the Padres, a team they trail by 4 1/2 games for the wild card.

Dodger fans, do you think anyone deserves to get fired for the performance of this teams, or was it just too many injuries?

The Padres keep winning as they complete a sweep of the Pirates by a score of 6-3. Brett Tomko keeps showing great control as he goes six innings, striking out six and walking none. That's seventeen Ks and one walk for Tomko in seventeen innings with San Diego.

Kevin Kouzmanoff continued his good hitting in the second half. He went 2 for 3 this afternoon with a double, and is now batting .317 since the break after hitting .228 in the first half.

It does appear that PETCO hides the power of the left side of the Padres infield. If you look at the road stats this year, Greene and Kouzmanoff are both slugging over .500.

The Cubs were complaining about the rotation the Astros used against Milwaukee, but it worked out as Hunter Pence delivered after his collision with a wall.

Having already used five relievers after needing four the previous night when Ben Sheets departed after one inning, Yost turned to Wise, knowing the right-hander had been in the dumps for weeks. And that trend continued.

A walk by pinch hitter Orlando Palmeiro, single by Berkman and deep fly by Lee that moved pinch runner Brandon Backe to third set the stage for Pence's sharp single to left on a 3-2 changeup.

"The thing that makes me want to puke is walking Palmeiro to lead off the inning. That's inexcusable," said Wise, who no longer blames his downfall on hitting Cincinnati's Jose Lopez in the face with a pitch in late July.

"My second half has been something to forget. It's a snowball effect I fight mentally every day. I'm trying everything I can to fix the problem but the results aren't there."

The Brewers have two games in hand, today and Monday, but that also means no rest for the weary. And they need to come up with another starter, as Ben Sheets looks like he won't take his next turn. On top of that, eight of the Brewers last eleven games are against the Braves and Padres, the teams that are 1-2 in the NL in run difference. The Cubs get the Pirates, Marlins and Reds. Things are looking good for Chicago right now.

Gordon Edes wants Boston fans to just take a deep breath:

This lesson hasn't even had time to collect dust. A year ago, the Detroit Tigers took the lead in their division May 21, led by as many as 10 games Aug. 7, then blew it. They lost their last five games of the season, all at home - the last three to the Royals, 100-game losers - and had to settle for the wild card. They were lousy the last month of the season, going 12-16.

Then they shocked the Yankees in the first round of the postseason, rolled over the Oakland Athletics in the American League Championship Series, and played in the World Series. No one even notices there isn't a divisional flag flying in Comerica Park.

Then there were the Cardinals, who had a seven-game lead in the National League Central a year ago today, then lost seven in a row and eight of nine, their lead shrinking to a half-game, before they righted themselves. The Cardinals won the World Series.

So, would anyone in New England like to take a deep breath, especially with the Sox' magic number to qualify for the playoffs just three after the Tigers were swept by Cleveland?

Exactly right. The Red Sox are without their top three hitters right now, so it's not surprising they're having trouble scoring runs. The worry should be how many of them are going to be back for the playoffs.

Also of some concern is that the Sox went from first seed to third seed yesterday as both the Indians and Angels went up by 1/2 game, one in the AFILC. Not only do the Red Sox get to open on the road if this holds up, but the way things stand right now they'd play the cross country series. While Boston plays fine on the road, the Angels own the best home record in the majors. It's good news for Cleveland, too, who would undoubtedly pick the extra day off so they can pitch Sabathia and Carmoa twice.

Brad Hawpe kept the Rockies playoff hopes alive with a two-run shot in the eighth inning as Colorado defeated Los Angeles 6-5. Hawpe's power is pretty limited to Coors field, as nineteen of his twenty six homers came at home, and he's slugging about 200 points higher in the rare air (.604 to .414).

Matt Holliday hit two earlier in the game, and his home run tear continues. He's hit ten in his last eleven games, collecting eighteen RBI and seventeen runs scored along the way. And he's going to need to keep that up if the Rockies are going to make a run at the Padres for the Wild Card.

Down in San Diego, Scott Hairston kept the Padres close to the Diamondbacks with a three-run walk off homer in the bottom of the ninth. Matt Capps has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park this season, but that long ball wasted a great effort by Ian Snell as the Padres win 5-3. Hairston hasn't played much for San Diego since joining the team from the Diamondbacks, but he seems to have PETCO Park measured, as all five of his Padres home runs came there. In 32 at bats, he's slugging .906 at home as one of the Padres.

And that Padres win keeps the Rockies from getting two excited:

For all they have done in knocking off the Dodgers three times in the past two days, leaving Los Angeles with little, if any, reason to think a postseason opportunity awaits them, the Rockies realize they have done nothing for themselves.

"It's always nice to win, but we are still a long ways from where we want to be," said reliever Brian Fuentes, whose perfect eighth earned him the victory. "The key for us has been we don't get too down when we lose, even in a couple of stretches when some people wrote us off, but we also can't get too high when we win.

"This game didn't change our season. It didn't guarantee us anything except the opportunity to keep playing for something."

It wasn't a great night for the massive tie scenario as the Phillies lost and the three teams ahead of them won. The Cardinals won 2-1 in the tenth as they allowed two of the Cardinals weakest hitters, Cairo and Molina to beat them. Miguel singled and stole second, and Yadier drove him in with another single. That makes the massive tie look like this:

Team	Record
Rockies	10-0
Phillies	8-2
Padres	6-5
Mets	6-5
Diamondbacks	4-5

By losing last night, the Dodgers pretty much lost their chance at the playoffs. Even the Rockies are a long shot, although they do play the Padres three games this weekend. They'll need all of those and some help.

Rickey Weeks hits a ball the opposite way, deep to right with a man on second in the ninth. Hunter Pence went back, keeping his eye on the ball but not the wall. The ball goes over the fence to tie the game, but Pence crashed into the wall and hits the deck. He's up and staying in the game, and Lidge gets another blown save.

The Cleveland Indians defeat the Tigers 4-2 and drop their magic number to three. The race in the Central is essentially over, and the Indians put an exclamation mark on the season by sweeping the one rival left in the division. Cleveland is 25-8 since they lost to Detroit on 8/14. The Tribe won 6 of their last seven games against the Tigers.

C.C. Sabathia pitches seven innings for the win, his eighteenth. He allows two runs, lowering his ERA to 3.19, moving him ahead of Beckett for sixth in the AL. He struck out seven and walked one, putting him over 200 Ks for the first time in his career.

Blake homered for the Indians today. In the three game series, Cleveland out homered Detroit 8-1. The Tigers out hit Cleveland in each game of the series, 31-21 overall, but the home runs made the difference.

There's a possibility of multiple ties for best record in the AL this season. The three division leaders all have 62 losses right now, and the Yankees are at 64. The Yankees hold the tie break over Boston, so in the event of all four teams finishing with the same record, the Yankees win the division. In a three way tie, best record in head to head competition breaks the first tie, and that goes to the Yankees. They are 9-6 against Cleveland and LAnaheim. The Angels are 11-8, the same number of games over .500, but a lower winning percentage. That would leave the Indians and Angels tied, and their first tie breaker would be head-to-head between the two teams. They split ten games this season. So the second tie-breaker is intra division play. Cleveland is 45-23 against the Central, a .662 winning percentage. LAnaheim is 28-19 against the west, a .595 winning percentage. So as things stand right now, a four way tie results in a LAnaheim/New York series and a Boston/Cleveland series, with the Yankees getting to choose if they want an extra day off.

If a three-way tie between Boston, Cleveland and LAnaheim, Boston wins best record, and the Cleveland/LAnaheim tie breaker is as above. Boston holds head-to-head tie breakers against both Cleveland and LAnaheim. New York holds a head-to-head tie-breaker against Cleveland, but loses to the Angels.

Arrr, those filthy Philles made bilge rats out o' the Cardinals last night, taking fourteen innings to down the Red Birds 7-4. Rod Barajas singled in the winning run with two out in the ninth after a Howard K and an intentional walk to Rowand. Jason Werth added a triple to cement the victory.

Cole Hamels lasted just three innings in his return, and the much maligned Phillies bullpen put together eleven innings of one-run ball, striking out eight and walking just two. The Phillies are now 1 1/2 games behind the Mets in the NL East. The Mets are walking the historical plank:

Just a week ago, the Mets led the NL East by seven games with 17 to play - a lead no team in MLB history had squandered in that time frame, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

"If I told you I'm not worried, I'd be lying, but we have a good team," said Moises Alou, who was pulled in the fifth with tightness in the left quadriceps muscle he strained in May, an injury that cost him 2-1/2 months.

The Phillies may make up for 1964 this season.

The Diamondbacks gave Micah Owings nine days off, and he responded with a complete game shutout of the Giants. He was nearly unhittable as the Giants managed two hits and one walk. And Owings went 1 for 3 at the plate with a double and is now slugging .618. Nine of his 16 hits this season went for extra bases.

Arizona needed the win as the Padres kept pace with a 5-3 win over Pittsburgh. The heart of the Pirates order (3-4-5 hitters) collected seven hits in thirteen at bats, but only scored three times. Maddux earns his 13th win, the 20th time in his career he's reached that level.

The win by Arizona and the loss by the Mets gives the Diamondbacks the best record in the NL. That means the team with the highest winning percentage has a negative run difference.

As for the massive tie, it's going to be tough to get the third team involved from the NL West after yesterday:

Team	Record
Dodgers or Rockies	11-0
Phillies	8-3
Padres	7-5
Mets	7-5
Diamondbacks	5-5

With five games head-to-head, the Dodgers and Rockies can't both go 11-0. So for either of these teams to make it, they four teams ahead of them are going to need to play worse than the above records. We do have a tie in the NL Central, and some tie, at least for a division title, seems a real possibility.

The Dodgers and Rockies play a much more Coors like game in the night cap. Colorado scored four runs in the last two innings to sweep the Dodgers, winning the night cap by a score of 9-8. Once again, Todd Helton was the hero as Holliday singled with two out in the ninth to bring Todd to the plate, and Helton homered off Saito to win the game. The two H's combined for four runs and five RBI in the contest, with Holliday missing the cycle by a triple.

The teams are now tied for third in the NL West, and this makes a massive tie a bit tougher to obtain.

Here's what Sir Paul thinks of the sweep:

Gideon checked out and he left it no doubt To help with good rockys revival

The chances of a massive tie increased a bit last night as the Phillies and Padres won, while the Diamondbacks lost. Here's one way to get a four way tie for the NL West/Wild Card:

Team	Record
Dodgers	11-2
Phillies	9-3
Padres	8-5
Diamondbacks	6-5

But wait, with the Phillies just 2 1/2 games behind the Mets, it's time to bring in a fifth team.

Team	Record
Dodgers	11-2
Phillies	9-3
Padres	8-5
Diamondbacks	6-5
Mets	7-6

Bringing the Mets into the tie doesn't do anything to lengthen the playoffs, but it does give up another game to enjoy! And, if the three wild card contenders tie the Mets instead of the Diamondbacks, we still get three days of playoff games! The Cubs and Brewers are still separated by one game in the Central. We could wind up with seven teams competing for four spots at the end of the regular season!

With the Cubs needing a win to stay alone in first place, David Weathers comes in to pitch for Cincinnati in the bottom of the ninth. He walks Theriot, gives up a single to Lee, the Ramirez triples as Hopper goes for a diving catch. Two runs score, the Cubs tie the game at six, and the Reds walk Ward to pitch to DeRosa. Weathers needs a strikeout here.

Update:DeRosa grounds one up the middle. It ticks off Weathers glove, and that changes the direction enough so that the drawn in second baseman ends up going in the wrong direction. DeRosa goes five for five on the night, and the Cubs win 7-6.

What a great night for baseball. Comebacks, extra-inning games, shutouts, multi-home runs games, and great pennant races. Nights like this are why I love this game.

The Yankees win 8-5 over the Orioles, but it was another long, ugly game. Farnsworth comes on to pitch the ninth with an 8-3 lead, and can't get three outs. He puts the game into a save situation, giving up one run, then Rivera comes on to give up a single and second run before getting the third out. Farnsworth left to boos as the Yankees were forced to use their closer on a night they should have given him time off.

Still, the Yankees win and gain a game on the Red Sox, reducing their lead to 3 1/2 games and extending their lead over Detroit to 3 1/2 in the wild card. Apart from the breakdown in the ninth, a good night for the Yankees.

Casey Blake just dealt the Tigers playoff hopes a real blow. His solo home run in the bottom of the eleventh earns Cleveland a 6-5 win and takes the Indians magic number down to seven. With the Yankees leading 8-3 in the top of the ninth, the Tigers may also lose a game in the wild card standings.

Nice job by the Cleveland bullpen tonight, pitching 3 2/3 innings, giving up just two hits while striking out six. Paul Byrd, the starter, did not strike out a batter in the game and allowed all five runs.

The Reds break on top of the Cubs 1-0 in the third as Ross doubles and comes around on a sacrifice and a ground out. Meanwhile, a walk, hit by pitch and a double lead to two runs for the Brewers in the first, and they lead Houston 2-0, also in the third.

Update: Cliff Floyd homers in the bottom of the third to put the Cubs up 2-1. Cliff is having a good stretch run as he's now hit four home runs in 29 September at bats.

Update: Mark DeRosa follows with a solo shot to make the score 3-1 Cubs. Mark has 10 RBI in 12 games vs. the Reds this season.

Marcus Hayes reviews the strange events that led to the Phillies sweeping the Mets twice.

The Rockies, losers of two out of three over the weekend are dropped from the massive tie scenario involving the wild card and the west. They basically need to go undefeated if Arizona plays .500 ball. The following scenario involves the four remaining teams and works if the Diamondbacks play .500 the rest of the way.

Team	Record
Dodgers	11-2
Phillies	10-3
Padres	9-5
Diamondbacks	6-6

The Dodgers can actually lose two out of three to the Diamondbacks if they win all the rest of their games. In reality, the Dodgers are going to need to sweep Arizona the next time they play. If Arizona plays worse than .500 ball, this scenario becomes easier to accomplish.

Colorado, however, can still figure in a four-team Wild Card tie.

Team	Record
Rockies	10-3
Dodgers	8-5
Phillies	7-6
Padres	6-8

Unlike the scenario above, this one requires that the Rockies go 4-3 against the Dodgers. The West/Wild Card above does not require any particular combination of wins against any particular team.

Since I'd rather see the division/wild card tie, since it takes two rounds of playoffs, here's what I'd like to see happen over the next series:

• Dodgers sweep the Rockies in four games.
• Phillies sweep the Cardinals in three games.
• Padres splits four with the Pirates.
• Arizona swept by the Giants in three games.

That would tighten everything up and make the rest of the season a little more even for the massive tie. On top of that, we still have close races for the NL Central and AL Wild Card. Who's looking forward to four games on the Monday after the season ends?

It's interesting that Jake Peavy is pitching today. Because he started on three days rest against Arizona, giving him four days off between games the rest of the way means he'll start on Friday and the following Wednesday. Then if there is a tie-breaking game on the Monday after the scheduled season ends, Peavy gets to take the hill for San Diego. Los Angeles, Arizona and Philadelphia all sent out fifth starters today, meaning the Padres would have an advantage in almost any matchup, either against a poor starter or against a good starter on short rest.

The Colorado Rockies had a great chance at moving up in the NL West down the stretch, as they play every one involved in the race. They also host the Marlins at home this weekend. With the second worst record in the NL, Colorado should have been looking to sweep to set themselves up for a strong stretch drive. Instead, they try to avoid being swept today, and it looks like their playoff chances are down to slim.

But Florida is the kind of team that can surprise you that way. They're a poor team with some great players. Miguel Cabrera took charge of the offense last night, picking up three hits, including a three-run homer to amass five RBI on the evening. That was half the Florida run production. Hanley Ramirez reached base three times and scored twice. There are enough stars on that team to make them dangerous, and the Rockies found out the hard way this weekend.

It was a great run for Colorado, and while they still have some hope, Don Pardo is ready to give them the home version of the game and a one year supply of Turtle Wax.

The Dodgers keep gaining the NL West with a 6-2 win over the Diamondbacks. Derek Lowe ended a streak of four poor starts with seven good innings, allowing just one run. The Dodgers could use Lowe returning to form for the last two weeks of the division race. He's been walking more batters lately, but just one this afternoon.

The Phillies hold on to defeat the Mets 5-3 today, their seventh win in a row against New York. They're now 11-6 vs. the Mets this season. They're five games over .500 against all the other teams combined.

At this point, might not the Mets want the Phillies to win the wild card? If the Mets win the East, they would play the wild card team unless it's an eastern team. Meaning they might have to play a pretty good team from the western division. But if the Phillies win the wild card, the Mets likely get the NL Central winner, and given the poor quality of those teams, it would likely give the Mets a better chance of winning the first round. That's the main defect in the current playoff system. It sometimes gives teams a reason not to win.

Things worked out well for the massive tie last night. The Dodgers trailed Arizona three times last night and came back in the next half inning to tie twice and take the lead for good on a Nomar Garciaparra opposite field home run. And while Brad Penny didn't pitch his best game, the bullpen pitched four strong innings, allowing two hits and two walks while striking out four.

Down the coast, the Padres mounted a comeback of their own, using a two-out, ninth inning double by Blum to tie the game and a walk-off home run by Greene in the tenth to win the game. Greene's almost evened out his home runs home and road, but his power remains low at San Diego because he doesn't get many other extra-base hits.

The Phillies won earlier, putting four teams within 4 1/2 games of the NL West/Wild Card lead. Unfortunately for the massive tie, Colorado lost, dropping them 6 1/2 behind Arizona. However, a tie between Arizona, San Diego, Los Angeles and Philadelphia produces two three-team playoffs, so that will be cool enough.

The Cubs and Cardianls have a strong, long-standing rivalry. But they seldom compete head-to-head for the division title:

The regional Cardinals-Cubs rivalry rarely has carried much weight in September.

Only six times during major-league baseball's live ball era (1920-present) have both teams finished among their league or division's top three with both within five games of the lead.

Most recently the Cardinals took a one-game lead over the Cubs into a four-day, five-game series at Wrigley Field in September 2003. The Cardinals lost four of five because of a thin bullpen and entered a free fall that left them 85-77, in third place and three games behind the eventual division champion Cubs.

That year marked only the second instance since the Cubs reached the 1945 World Series that both teams finished within five games of their league or division lead.

This is probably why the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry has a more storied past. While I'm sure the local fan interest is as intense in all four cities, the number of epic battles between New York and Boston captures the interest of fans from far and wide.

As the Yankees and Red Sox meet for their final series of the season, Gordon Edes looks for a term to describe this Boston club:

So, what are we to say about a team when it doesn't collapse, fold, choke, fall apart, crumble, disintegrate, melt, break down, crash and burn, fizzle, flop, or fade?

The language is rich in words to describe failure. The Red Sox have had most of those terms applied to them at times throughout their history. So where are the words to describe what these Sox of 2007 are doing, in the face of the best second half the Yankees have had since Joe Torre became manager in 1996?

Somehow, "hanging on" doesn't quite cut it, not when history's most expensive team rolls into town on an 8-1 tear and has run off a record of 40-20 since the All-Star break, a .667 clip that conjures memories of the .684 pace (54-25) the '78 Yanks played at in erasing a 14-game deficit to overtake the Sox. All that winning, and the Yankees arrive 5 1/2 games behind and needing more than a three-game sweep this weekend to catch the Sox.

How about playing like champions?

A three way tie for the NL Central looks out of the question as the Cardinals start a four game series with the Cubs in St. Louis. The Cardinals are going to need to sweep the Cubs this weekend and the Brewers the last week of the season to make that happen. The way the Cardinals played this season, that's not likely to happen.

The massive tie scenario still exists for the NL West/Wild Card, but as Arizona keeps winning, a tie for the western division becomes less likely. Here's the way to get there with the highest winning percentages:

Team	Record
Rockies	13-3
Dodgers	12-4
Phillies	12-4
Padres	11-6
Diamondbacks	6-9

This requires that the Rockies take four of seven from the Dodgers and sweep everyone else, including three from the Diamondbacks and Padres. The Dodgers also need to sweep the DBacks six games for this to work. It's not the only solution, just the one that produces the highest winning percentage. The more the DBacks lose, the easier it becomes to get the tie.

So this weekend, if you want a massive tie, root for:

• Dodgers sweep the Diamondbacks
• Padres take two of three from the Giants
• Phillies sweep the Mets (might as well make the NL East interesting as well)
• Rockies sweep the Marlins

After they finish with the Marlins, Colorado plays thirteen games against the Dodgers, Padres and DBacks to end the season.

The Arizona Diamondbacks took a huge step toward making the playoffs last night as they defeated the Giants 9-4. The DBacks nine runs in the game increased their scoring in San Francisco 64%:

In eight games entering Wednesday night, they had scored a total of 14 runs in this ballpark. Not surprisingly, they lost six of those games.

So it was somewhat jarring to first see Mark Reynolds and Chris Snyder hammer back-to-back home runs in the second inning, then watch the Diamondbacks come back two innings later to score four times and take command of a game they won 9-4 in front of 37,083.

Arizona's two nearest competitors for the playoffs both lost, as San Diego fell to Los Angeles and Colorado defeated Philadelphia. Arizona's magic number to clinch a wild card berth is down to eleven. A massive tie for the Western division is looking shaky, but one for the Wild Card is pretty good as three teams trail San Diego by 2 1/2 games.

Cobra Brigade loved the end of the Cubs game last night.

If you missed this game because you had better things to do, you are going to be kicking yourself. Wow! What an ending. A 3-6-1 double play to end the game after they had a runner on 3rd with no outs!?!? I'm not even certain I would have believed it had I not seen it with my own eyes. I nearly had a heart attack, twice. Holy crap. Did you see Piniella after the game? I thought he was either going to punch every player on the team or give them a bear hug. He was out of control. This was, of course, right after he came out to the mound and told everyone to 'Relax!' Do as I say and not as I do, I guess....Wow!

It was exactly the type of game you expect the Cubs to lose as they fall apart in the ninth. The Astros fail to get the tying run home from third with no outs, and the Cubs go back into a tie with the Brewers. Interestingly, with Lamb at third and the infield in, Scott hit a slow roller to third on the first pitch. The ball was hit slowly enough that Lamb might have scored if he broke with the ball, but he just didn't get a good read on it. Scott swung hard, just didn't hit the ball hard.

The hitters didn't hit and the pitchers didn't pitch as the Brewers fall to the Pirates 9-0 in the steel city tonight. The Brewers used five pitchers, each of which gave up at least one run. Somewhat impressively, the Pirates picked up fifteen hits despite striking out nine times. The Pirates were 15 for 27 when putting the ball in play tonight. Milwaukee falls back into a tie with the Cubs, and the Cardinals remain three games out in the NL Central.

Arizona didn't do much to help the massive tie scenario over the weekend as they swept the Cardinals and made the chances of a big pileup less likely. But with three weeks to go, the situation is still fluid, and there is a chance of two massive ties. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals are only separated by three games, so there's plenty of chances for a three-way tie in that division. Getting a big NL Wild Card/West tie will take a bit more work. Here's a scenario in which five teams tie for the Wild Card, with a four team tie for the West:

Team	Record
Rockies	16-4
Dodgers	15-4
Phillies	15-5
Padres	13-7
Diamondbacks	9-9

This is the best winning percentage scenario, and in order to work, all four Rockies losses come against the Dodgers. It's not the only answer, and the fewer games the Diamondbacks win, the easier this is to pull off. Also, the same holds for a four way tie between the wild card contenders, which at this point should be a bit easier to get.

With the Rangers sweeping the Atheltics, the two western division rivals are now in a virtual tie for last in the AL West. This has to give Ron Washington a bit of schadenfreude right now. I'm sure he'd love to finish a few games ahead of Oakland this year.

The Diamondbacks did real damage to the Cardinals chances of winning the NL Central as they sweep St. Louis. The Red Birds, down 6-4 in the ninth, managed to load the bases with two out but only score one run as the Diamondbacks with their 32nd one run game of the season. For the second day in a row, the DBacks fall behind early, this time 4-2, but come back against the Cardinals bullpen for the victory. Arizona now leads the west by three, while the Cardinals fall that far behind in the central.

Jeff Francis pitched well enough to win tonight, but Greg Maddux and the San Diego bullpen pitched a bit better. Francis went eight innings, allowing four hits and two runs, lowering his ERA to 4.05. But he ran into Greg Maddux with his good stuff, getting great movement on his pitches to hold Colorado to three hits and no walks over six innings. Greg hasn't walked a batter since July. With the Padres pen backing him up, Maddux notches career win 345 by a score of 3-1.

It was a good afternoon for the massive tie scenario as both the Phillies and Dodgers won, which at least keeps them close in the NL Wild Card race. A win by Colorado over San Diego and by St. Louis over Arizona would make a tie for the west and the wild card even more likely.

The NL Central coin toss takes place this afternoon to determine which teams get home field advantage in a one game playoff. The Brewers are asking you to vote on what they should call in the flip with the Cardinals. I assume Cardinals fans will vote for what they think won't come up. :-)

It's interesting that 53% right now are voting heads (scroll down for the poll). Does this indicate the "crowd" thinks the coin is biased? Or is heads just a more positive outcome, and most people are optimists?

With the Cubs losing and Cardinals winning Thursday afternoon, the top three teams in the NL Central are tied in the all freakin' important loss column. As we all know, it's easy to make up the wins.

So course, this ignores the totally meaningless win column, and the even more ignored winning percentage column. But in fact, that latter column is extremely important. If we use it as a predictor of future performance, what we find is that we should expect the Cardinals to win 13 of their last 25 games, while we should expect the Cubs and Brewers to pick up 12 wins in their final 23 contests. That of course, leads to Chicago and Brewers leaving the Cardinals one game back.

Maybe we should be more concerned with the AFIGBC!

Update: One other thing to point out here. Twelve wins takes the Cubs and Brewers to 83 on the season, which would be a very low total for a division champion. It's even possible at this point that the winner finishes under .500.

The Diamondback defeated the Padres last night 9-6. Not only does this put Arizona in first place by a game, all the other wild card contenders lost as well. The well timed victory allowed them to pick up a game on everyone. In addition, Arizona takes the season series against San Diego 10-8, so as long as they stay ahead in the Wild Card race, they just need to tie San Diego to win the division. In essense, the win dropped their magic number by three.

There seemed to be a bit of motivation behind the win, also:

Last week, Peavy held the Diamondbacks to three hits in seven innings and suggested he come back on three days' rest to face Arizona.

Whether the short rest was the reason, Peavy did not look sharp, as the Diamondbacks scored eight times off him in four-plus innings. The motivation angle might have sharpened the Diamondbacks' focus.

"OK, he wants to pitch against us with three days off, you've got to make him pay, you know?" said catcher Miguel Montero, who hit one of his two solo home runs off Peavy. "We're in first place because we have played good no matter who is pitching. Tonight it was him."

One of the nice things about the NL's parity is that it creates the chance for huge numbers of teams tied at the end of the season. The NL Central just needs the three teams there to play farily even the rest of the way to get a three-way tie, resulting in a two day playoff. The NL West/Wild Card race involves five teams separated by four games. Interestingly, Colorado controls its own fate here as they are the only one of the five teams to play each of the other four down the stretch. Here's a high winning percentage scenario that results in all five teams in a tie:

Team	Record
Rockies	18-6
Dodgers	17-7
Phillies	17-7
Diamondbacks	13-9
Padres	13-9

The Rockies would need to finish on a very hot streak, but stranger things have happened. Here's what should happen today to help the ties along:

• Philadelphia defeats Atlanta
• Milwaukee defeats Houston
• Los Angeles defeats Chicago
• St. Louis defeats Pittsburgh
• Colorado defeats San Francisco
• Arizona defeats San Diego

The last item brings those two team even in the loss column, although I thought you couldn't make up the losses. :-)

The American League Division races look quite settled this morning. The Red Sox, Indians and Angels each own at least a seven game lead, with a magic number no more than eighteen. The Red Sox, with a .604 winning percentage and a magic number of seventeen, have a 13% chance of winning at least seventeen games, meaning the Yankees wouldn't need to lose to put the Red Sox on top. Since 8/15, the Indians are the best team in the majors with a 15-4 mark, but LAnaheim is second in the AL, going 13-8 and the Red Sox are tied for third at 12-8. All that's left for the three teams is the race for home field advantage and trying to avoid an historic collapse.

It was a good night for bringing about a massive tie in the NL Central. Carlos Villanueva pitched his second good start as he allowed one run in six innings to lower his ERA as a starter to 1.64. Ryan Braun hit his 27th home run, solidifying his Rookie of the Year credentials as the Brewers defeated the Astros 5-3.

In St. Louis, Joel Pineiro continues to impress for the Cardinals, giving up two runs in 5 2/3 innings of work, while the Cardinals score six. Another newcomer, Russell Branyan hits his first home run for his new team as St. Louis defeats Pittsburgh 6-2.

Meanwhile, Brad Penny holds the Cubs to two runs over seven innings and the bullpen keeps them off the board the rest of the way as the Dodgers defeat the Cubs, also by a 6-2 score. Five double plays turned by the Dodgers helped negate the twelve Cubs batters who reached base.

The wins and losses leave the NL Central extremely tight. Chicago holds a 1/2 game lead over Milwaukee and a one game lead over St. Louis. While the Cubs and Brewers no longer play head-to-head, the Cardinals face Chicago five times and Milwaukee three. At least St. Louis gets to control their own destiny.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays defeated Baltimore tonight 9-7. Neither team played particularly well. The Orioles blew an early 4-0 lead, but then Tampa Bay came close to blowing a 9-4 lead as Baltimore scored three in the top of the ninth. Carlos Pena hit his 35th home run of the season to solidify his second place rank in AL home runs.

Over their last thirteen games, the Devil Rays are 10-3 while the Orioles just won once. That's nine games gained by Tampa Bay in two weeks, and their still three games out of fourth place. Even sweeping the Orioles leaves them in fifth place. It's only fifth to fourth, but if Tampa can avoid a last place finish, it will be just the second time they missed the cellar, but it will also be one of the great late season comebacks.

The NL Wild Card race pulled a bit tighter today as Arizona and Philadelphia lose, while Los Angeles and Colorado win. I heard one announcer in a completely different game talk about how Philadelphia wants either the DBacks or Padres to sweep, but LA and Colorado want the Padres and DBacks to split, so they can move up on both teams for the division title. I don't agree with that logic. All teams should want a sweep, so they can try to move into the wild card position. It's more important to be in the playoffs than win the division. Once you hold the wild card, then worry about the division. Do people agree?

Winning a division is nice, but the best record in the AL gains you home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Angels moved 1/2 game ahead of the Red Sox last night. After the Red Sox fell 9-8 to Baltimore (the Orioles allowed five runs over the last three innings but managed to break their losing streak), LAnaheim played a tight game with Texas. The Rangers came back to tie the game at six, scoring single runs in the 8th and 9th, but the Angels took the game in the bottom of the tenth. They're not going wire-to-wire this season, but they're close:

This is only the second time in the Angels' 47-year history that they have been alone in first place at the end of every month from April through August. The other time was 1985, when they went 2-6 during a critical stretch in the final two weeks and were overtaken by the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals with three games left on the schedule.

With Seattle losing their seventh straight, the Angels lead in the west is up to six. Given their record at home, ending the season with the best record in the AL would certainly work to their advantage.

Winning a division is nice, but the best record in the AL gains you home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Angels moved 1/2 game ahead of the Red Sox last night. After the Red Sox fell 9-8 to Baltimore (the Orioles allowed five runs over the last three innings but managed to break their losing streak), LAnaheim played a tight game with Texas. The Rangers came back to tie the game at six, scoring single runs in the 8th and 9th, but the Angels took the game in the bottom of the tenth. They're not going wire-to-wire this season, but they're close:

This is only the second time in the Angels' 47-year history that they have been alone in first place at the end of every month from April through August. The other time was 1985, when they went 2-6 during a critical stretch in the final two weeks and were overtaken by the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals with three games left on the schedule.

With Seattle losing their seventh straight, the Angels lead in the west is up to six. Given their record at home, ending the season with the best record in the AL would certainly work to their advantage.

When I went to bed last night, I thought the story line for the Diamondbacks-Padres series would be how the teams won backwards. San Diego took three close games, and it looked like Arizona would win the blow out. But San Deigo stormed back to score seven runs over the last three innings. That was enough to earn Arizona its thirtieth one-run victory 8-7. At 30-16, they've now passed the Mets for best winning percentage in that category.

The game was backwards for Arizona, however. Usually, the bullpen does a great job of preventing runs late. Maybe without the game on the line, the pen didn't feel they needed to be perfect. In 2 1/3 innings, they allowed seven hits and four runs.

However, a win is a win, and despite losing three of four, the Diamondbacks still lead the NL West. It was a good week of 1-2 contests, with a little of everything. The Angels and Cubs put themselves in excellent positions to win their divisions. Chicago no longer plays Milwaukee, and the Angels get the Mariners at home. The Yankees and Phillies swept the division winner to keep their first place hopes alive. And San Diego pulled the NL West closer, as the Dodgers also gained ground with four straight wins.

Chris Young returned last night after missing a start with a bad back, and he was wild. He gave up five runs on just two hits, but Chris walked six and hit a batter. One of those hits was a two-run home by Mark Reynolds who later doubled after Young couldn't find the plate in the fifth. Hit three-run double capped a good night for a player who has struck out 100 times in 274 major league at bats.

The Yankees finish the game with a 5-0 victory over the Red Sox. It's quite a turn around for both teams as Boston scored ten runs in four consecutive games coming into the series, but are held to six runs in the three games. The Yankees had allowed 32 runs in their previous four, but pitched well against Boston in the series. The win puts the Yankees five games out of first place in the AL East, and temporarily up 1/2 game in the AL Wild Card race. They've made September interesting.

Nick Piecoro notes Arizona's offense simply hasn't delivered during their losing streak:

"You can't dwell on what happened the past three games," third baseman Mark Reynolds said. "We're going to forget about today and go out there and try to put some numbers on the board."

They couldn't do that on Wednesday night, going just 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position, making them just 2 for 20 in those situations in this series against the Padres. That alone is a sign that the Diamondbacks are struggling. In each of their long losing skids this season, they have failed badly to hit in scoring position. Their numbers in this 10-game slide: 12 for 75 (.160).

Arizona only scored 4.2 runs per game, 29th in the majors and 15th in the NL. Throw in bad luck with runners in scoring position, and you have a team with no offense. On top of that, facing Maddux right now, they weren't going to get any extra base runners:

The 41-year-old Maddux pitched seven strong innings, allowing one run and eight hits while striking out five. He got a no-decision after winning his previous three starts and four of five.

Maddux has gone 38 innings in his last six starts without walking a batter, and his overall streak is 42 innings. The last batter he walked was Astros starter Roy Oswalt in the second inning of a 3-1 loss at Houston on July 28. Maddux worked six innings that game.

The 3-1 win puts the Padres 0.001 points ahead of Arizona in winning percentage, tied with the Mets for the best record in the National League. Given their run differential, the Padres should be the top team in the league right now.

The Yankees defeat the Red Sox 4-3. Alex Rodriguez hits his forty fourth home run of the season to make the score 4-1 in the seventh, and it proves to be the game winner as Youkilis hits a two run shot in the eighth to bring the Red Sox within one. But Rivera comes in and retires the last four Red Sox batters of the game, and the Yankees move into a virtual tie for the AL Wild Card with the Mariners. If New York can win tomorrow, the possibility of a division title comes back into play.

Sixty home runs is still a possibility for Alex. The record for home runs in September is 17 held by Babe Ruth and Albert Belle. Ruth set that record in 1927, the year he hit 60.

The Cleveland Indians scored four runs of Johan Santana in the first inning and C.C. Sabathia and three relievers made that stand up for a 4-3 win. The Indians sweep the Twins to pretty much end Minnesota's chances at the playoffs. Asdrubal Cabrera continues to spark the Indians, hitting a two run homer in the first to give the Tribe a lead they would not relinquish. Detroit is currently losing 5-0 to Kansas City, so they could end up 4 1/2 games back by the end of the night. With five wins in a row and seven in their last eight, Cleveland is taking control of the AL Central.

The LAnaheim Angels left no prisoners in Seattle, defeating the Mariners 8-2 today and by an average score of 8-3 in the series. They hit the starters, they hit the relievers. They just kept putting runners on base and bringing them around to score. They beat the Mariners on the road, a place where LAnaheim hasn't played well all year. It's not that surprising, the Angels are the better team. They just put an exclamation mark on it with this series.

The news was bad all around for the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday night. Not only did the Padres get to ace Brandon Webb for six runs and a 6-4 victory, but Padres pitcher Chris Young says his back is fine and he'll start the Thursday finale against Arizona. San Diego moves to one game behind Arizona with two game left in this series and three games next week in Phoenix.

The Dodgers are taking advantage of the DBacks fall, taking the first two games from the Nationals and now sitting 4 1/2 games out of first place. With consecutive one-run victories, the Dodgers are now 26-17 in one run games, the third best record in the majors.

The Rockies, however, are not taking advantage of San Diego's surge. They lost to the Giants for the second night in a row, as Matt Cain pitched a strong start and actually won. It's his seventh quality start in a row, and the strikeouts, walks and home runs all confirm his 2.42 ERA over that stretch. Even the Giants can support that kind of pitching as Matt is 4-1 in his last seven.

The LAnaheim Angels overcame an early 5-0 deficit to take game two of their series with Seattle 10-6. Ervin Santana last just one third of an inning, allowing all five runs. That raises his road ERA to 8.72. But Jeff Weaver couldn't hold the lead, as the Angels scored in the third, fourth and fifth to tie the game and bring in the Seattle bullpen. Tied at six in the eighth, the Mariners shouldn't have gone to Morrow, as Brandon suffers his usual wildness, walking two and also allowing two hits and four runs.

The Angels offense is hitting on all cylinders in the two games so far. They've knocked out twenty six hits, eleven for extra bases. They're slugging .611 as a team, and are ten for twenty eight with men in scoring position. They're not only solidifying their division lead, they're hitting like champions.

The Chicago Cubs score four in the seventh inning and go on to a 5-3 victory. The Cubs offense played well in the inning, but an error by Linebrink led to two unearned runs, the difference in the game. Watching the end of the contest, it was a real playoff atmosphere at Wrigley tonight. With a 2 1/2 game lead, the fans have a good reason to be happy.

St. Louis is leading Houston 7-0 in the bottom of the ninth. That means the Brewers are likely to drop to third place. I guess pitching Woody Williams is a bad strategy no matter who is managing.

Ryan Howard delivers a home run in the bottom of the tenth to finish a 4-2 comeback victory over the Mets. It was a massive shot, hit the opposite way to left field, putting the Phillies just four games behind the Mets. The Mets bullpen wastes a stellar effort by Tom Glavine who pitched a short shutout, giving up eight hits (all singles) over seven innings, but walking none. But Philadelphia tied it off Feliciano in the eighth, then won it off Mota in the tenth.

Adam Eaton pitches okay, giving up two runs in 5 2/3 innings. He's now given up six runs to the Mets in 18 2/3 innings this year. But the bullpen allowed just one hit over 4 1/3 innings of work, keeping the Phillies in it until the home run heroics of Howard.

A week ago this series between the Yankees and Red Sox looked like it would go a long way to determining the AL East champion. But with the Yankees losing four games in the standings during that time, even a three-game sweep by New York leaves Boston in very good shape for winning the division.

Still, the Yankees need victories to capture the wild card, and I'm sure the Boston-New York rivalry will press the Red Sox to knock the Bronx Bombers out of the race entirely. The pitching matchups came together well for this series. Matsuzaka faces Pettitte tonight, Beckett takes on Clemens Wednesday, and Schilling matches Wang on Thursday. With the recent performance of the bullpen, the three Yankees starters will need to go as deep as they can in games to assure victory. The Red Sox really don't have that problem, as a deep pen allows their starters to come out before they're really in trouble. Given that the three Boston starters had problems with the Yankees this season, that's a good thing (the Yankees staff hasn't been brilliant, either). The Boston pen posts a 2.93 ERA, while the Yankees are at 4.06. That's a higher ERA than the Boston starters.

Even with the shutout yesterday, the Yankees are still the highest scoring team in the majors by 0.3 runs. Boston is fourth, but they are also under-performing expectations. Runs created puts Boston at 5.5 runs per game while they're just scoring 5.3. The Red Sox hitters have the potential to do more damage than we've seen, and last maybe last week they started to make up for their previous under-performance.

Keep your eye on the third basemen. Mike Lowell and Alex Rodriguez each knocked out four home runs against the other team this season. And of course, the usual cast of great hitters have played well against their favorite rivals.

This isn't the battle to the death for the AL East. But it's important enough to make it an exciting series.

The Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers for three games, with the Cubs leading the division by 1 1/2 games. It's the last time this season the two clubs face each other.

The Cubs lead the season series so far despite Milwaukee out homering them 20-9. Despite the power difference, the Cubs managed to put more runs on the scoreboard, leading the series 66-57. Prince Fielder has done much of the damage against Chicago, hitting five home runs and driving in thirteen runs. And four of those five home runs have tied the game or given the Brewers the lead.

The Cubs overcame the home runs with a core of players getting on base. Lee, Theriot, Floyd and Pie (and even Barrett when he was with the team) have stuffed the bases. And if you put enough men on, eventually they come around to score. The Cubs haven't hit great with men in scoring position against MIlwaukee, but they have driven in 19 runs in 31 plate appearances with a man on third and less than two outs.

The pitching matchups favor Chicago in this series. Hill, Zambrano and Lilly all hold ERAs under 4.00, while Suppan, Vargas and Gallardo all are way over 4.00. Despite an ERA over 5.00, Vargas is 10-4 due to terrific run support. The Brewers scored 89 runs when he's been on the mound while he's allowed 75.

It's pretty imperative for one of these teams to take first place now. Both teams have fairly easy schedules the rest of the way. After this series, Milwaukee starts a stretch of 18 games against Pittsburgh, Houston and Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the only games the Cubs play against contenders down the stretch are four against the Dodgers and five against St. Louis. This is the last chance to win the division in a head-to-head meeting. The Brewers need the sweep, and the Cubs need to win two.

The Arizona Diamondbacks go into San Diego leading the Padres by three games. The most amazing thing about this series, of course, is that the not only should the Padres be ten games ahead of the Diamondbacks, but the Diamondbacks should be last in the NL West, not first. The team is remarkably good in one run games, but remarkably bad in blow outs. Arizona is 29-16 when the game is decided by one run (number one is wins, number two in winning percentage). But they are 13-23 when a game is decide by five runs or more. Great teams do not get blown out. The Diamondbacks have been good enough in close games to climb into first. Now we'll see if they can hold it.

So far this season, the series against the Padres reflected this run split. In the four games the Diamondbacks lost, they've been outscored 36-11 for an average score of 9-3. In the seven games they've won, Arizona holds a 41-20 run advantage, or 6-3. Overall, the Padres have outscored the DBacks 56-52.

The Diamondbacks offense is somewhat inflated by their home park. Take them out of Chase Field, and their on-base average drops twenty points and their slugging drops by 50. On top of that, they are headed to a tough ballpark, PETCO. Don't be surprised to see a lot of little ball in this four game series. San Diego bunted 34 times at home vs. 19 on the road, and while they try as many steals, they are more successful at PETCO. The Diamondbacks are 41 for 46 stealing on the road, but their use of the bunt is the same home and away.

I was hoping for a Webb-Peavy matchup, but Jake draws Livan Hernandez in game one while Webb goes against Germano in game two. In a bit of luck, Arizona may miss Chris Young due to a bad back. Owings vs. Maddux in game three should be fun. We'll see if Micah can poke one out of PETCO.

Brian Giles and Adrian Gonzalez have been the main offensive force against Arizona, although Milton Bradley contributed since arriving in town. Chad Tracy is the only Diamondback to rise to that level, although Tony Clark's been deadly in his limited roles.

Arizona would love to walk away with a split of the four games, while San Diego needs to take three out of four, not only to gain ground by hold off the huge wild card pack behind them. The Padres are the better team in terms of overall talent, but so far this season, the Diamondbacks have better maximized the their player's skills. At the moment, Bob Melvin looks like a sure manager of the year.

The Seattle Mariners host the LAnaheim Angels, trailing the Orange County club by two games in the standings.

So far this season, the Angels dominated the season series between the two clubs, taking eight of the twelve games played. The Mariners do have one thing working in their favor in this three-game set. The Angels are a below .500 club on the road, and are 3-3 in Seattle this season.

The Angels are really a much better team than Seattle based on their run differential. LAnaheim out scored their opponents by 75 runs, the third highest difference in the majors. Seattle is just +24. Both teams, actually, outperformed their projected W-L record, the Angels by three game but the Mariners by seven.

Among the hitters in the head-to-head competition between the teams this season, the cream has risen to the top. Both Ichrio and Vlad lead their team's offenses. It's clear, however, that Vlad's received the most support.

We're going to miss out on a Weaver-Weaver matchup, but the rotation fell to make all three games someone evenly matched. Game one tonight sees Lackey face Batista. Both own good records, although Lackey is clearly the better pitcher. Miguel pitches well at Safeco, however, so he should give John a good game. Still the odds favor the Angels in this one.

Game two pits Ervin Santana against Jeff Weaver is the "never know what you're going to get" game. Santana is horrible on the road, 1-9 with an 8.06 ERA. Jeff Weaver can be brilliant or terrible, but almost never in between. This is probably the Mariners best bet for a win in the series.

Finally, we get the young guns as Jered Weaver goes against Felix Hernandez. Both are good, but overall their injuries seem to have kept them from being great. This is the toss up game, with either side likely to win.

Seattle's bullpen is an ace in the hole for the Mariners. The are 24-8 this season with a 3.70 ERA. That record indicates great late inning play on both sides of the ball, as the Mariners have outscored their opponents 184-158 from the seventh inning on.

As long as Seattle doesn't get swept, they should be in good shape coming out of the series. Taking two out of three should keep them in the wild card lead while gaining ground on the division leader. And the Angels losing two out of three shouldn't hurt the Angels too much either, since the final four games between the teams are in Anaheim, where the team has the best home record in baseball. It's a nice David vs. Goliath matchup that should last the rest of the season.

Lyflines reviews the Red Sox week and notices:

It's very rare, over the course of seven games, to see the Pythagorean say that a team should be undefeated. I don't remember ever actually seeing it before. That's how dominant the weekend in Chicago was - the Red Sox went 6-1 on the week and underperformed their Pythagorean winning percentage.

The Red Sox now have the highest run differential in the majors, 183 runs. The Yankees lost 3 1/2 games, which makes picking up a game a week moot at this point. They need to pick up two a week, which is a much tougher assignment.

The Mets lead the Phillies by six games in the NL East as they open a four-game series in Philadelphia.

The return of Chase Utley to the lineup provides some hope for Phillies fans. The Phillies held their own without Chase in the lineup, going 15-13. Iguchi played well in Utley's stead, posting a .357 OBA and a .425 slugging percentage. Not MVP numbers, but much better than replacement level. It was a good move by Gillick that helped keep the team in the race.

Don't expect Chase to be back to normal right away, however. Hand and wrist injuries seem to affect hitting long after they've healed. It may be a couple of more weeks until Utley is back to full power.

The Mets come into the game tied for the best run differential in the National League, 61. They're even with San Diego, who just took two out of three from the Phillies. While the Phillies hold the superior offense (they're the only team to score 700 runs in the NL), the Mets make up the difference with their pitching, allowing 110 fewer runs than Philadelphia.

Part of that run superiority, however, comes from the two home ballparks. Taken out of Shea, the Mets offense is in line with Philadelphia's, while their pitching staff remains potent. Due to this, the Mets own the best road record in baseball, 38-26.

The Mets are also close to full strength as far as their sluggers go. Alou and Beltran are off the disabled list, and since Carlos' return on August 10th, the Mets are averaging 6.1 runs per game.

As for the season series, the Mets lead 6-5. And all they need to do is continue to play the Phillies even. Two wins in this series takes the Mets magic number against the Phillies down to 24 with 29 games to go.

Here's the Phillies batters against the Mets this season, and the Mets against the Phillies. The shortstops are worth watching in this series, as well as the two Carlos' on the Mets. On the pitching side, Kendrick, Eaton and Moyer pitched well against New York this season, while Hernandez and Glavine have been lights out against Philadelphia (they won't see Maine this series).

The Phillies need to win big to stay in contention in the NL East, and they probably need at least a split to stay in contention for the NL Wild Card.

Update: The Mets also get Paul Lo Duca back for tonight's game.

Both the Cubs and Brewers lost by the same score today, 5-4. With the Cardinals winning, St. Louis is now just two games out of first and half a game out of second. The Brewers fall all the way back to .500 with their loss. They blow a 4-1 lead as Guillermo Rodriguez hits his first career major league home run off David Bush in the seventh to tie the game, and then in the eight, Pedro Feliz scored from first on a single:

With two outs, Aurilia hit a high fly ball off Scott Linebrink (4-5) that landed near right fielder Corey Hart, second baseman Rickie Weeks and the foul line. Feliz scored easily when Hart's throw traveled up the third base line.

"I didn't want to dive for it," Hart said. "I just made a bad throw."

Said Feliz: "The wind is kind of crazy here and I saw he was playing back. You have to take advantage of that."

The Brewers are in the phase where everything that can go wrong does.

Lookout Landing sums up the AL West race.

Then it dawned on me - the Angels might have a lot of annoying players, but right now, we're the annoying team. I know about Arizona and all that, but at least in the American League, we're the team that seemingly doesn't have a right to be where it is. We're the team that nobody can figure out, the team that no one saw coming and the team whose success by and large remains a mystery, even to us.

Well, someone saw them coming:

My surprise in the AL West goes to the Seattle Mariners. Although fans are disappointed with the production of Sexson and Beltre, and some are upset that the team is bringing in older players like Guillen and Vidro, the offense is consistently good. Based on 2006 numbers, even without making adjustment for improved health, the Mariners look like they own the best set of position players in the division. Healthy years from Guillen and Vidro make the offense much better. I'm very positive about that half of the team.

The pitching staff leaves something to be desired, but they do have a real wild card in Felix Hernandez. He looked great in his rookie year, but 2006 saw him take a big step backwards. He came to camp in the best shape of his life, prepared to carry this team. If he can pull off the types of seasons a young Gooden or Clemens pitched in the mid 1980s, the rest of the staff doesn't need to do all that well for the Mariners to post a winning record, even a division win.

The Yankees won this afternoon, the Red Sox lost, and both teams finish the week 4-3. The Yankees fail to gain any ground on Boston, but after a big week previously they could afford to tread water. They need to pick up five games over the next six weeks to take the division.

The next week, however, favors the Red Sox greatly. The Yankees fly across the country to play three with LAnaheim, then fly to Detroit for four more against the Tigers. Meanwhile, the Red Sox go on the road to face the Devil Rays for three, then four against the White Sox. Both teams then fly to New York for a three-game showdown in the Bronx. Given the level of competition, the Red Sox may be able to gain two games on New York before that series.

It was a long night for the Rockies as their game against the Dodger took 5:06 to play fourteen innings, but Colorado emerged victorious 7-4. The win allowed them to gain on every wild card opponent ahead of them. It was actually a good night if you like the idea of a massive tie for the wild card, as the top four teams lost and the bottom two of the six contenders (Milwaukee and Colorado) won.

Even better news for the Rockies was the start of Franklin Morales. The 21-year-old made his major league debut, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings. What struck me most about the performance was the lack of walks. In his minor league career, Morales has struck out batters at a high rate and kept the ball in the park. But he's walked close to five per nine. Against the Dodgers, however, he struck out four without walking a batter. That kind of control will keep him in the majors for a long time.

Balls, Sticks and Stuff reflects on the Phillies moving into a tie for the NL Wild Card.

The Brewers lose again, falling to the Cincinnati Reds 8-3. With the Cubs win this afternoon, Chicago now leads the NL Central by 1/2 game. Given their problems in close games early this season, it seems appropriate that the Cubs go into first with a one-run victory.

The Indians also move into first on the strength of a 2-1 victory. Paul Byrd out-pitched Ed Jackson, and the bullpen yielded no ground. Coupled with a 6-1 Detroit loss to the Yankees, the Indians now lead the Central by one, and the Tigers fall a game behind the Yankees in the wild card race. With Seattle winning 3-0 in the fifth, Detroit might end up 1 1/2 games back by the end of the night.

The Cardinals finish the shutout, defeating the Milwaukee Brewers 8-0 to sweep the series in Wisconsin. St. Louis took no prisoners as they outscored the Brewers 28-7. Adam Wainwright only allowed two hits and three walks over seven innings as he picks up his third short shutout.

You have to wonder if a team that allows two home runs to Yadier Molina and a bases loaded, bases clearing double David Eckstein deserves to win the division.

The Cardinals defeat the Brewers 8-3 to move to 3 1/2 games of the division lead. It was a bit of a throwback night as Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen all homered. The once great heart of the order fell on hard times this year as Edmonds and Rolen are slugging just a little over .400. But for one night the power trio was back. Pujols' 25th homer of the season was also the 275th of his career.

It's not that the Cardinals are playing so great. They're 11-7 since July 28th. But the Brewers are just 5-12 over that same stretch which allowed the Cardinals to pick up 5 1/2 games. It's a close three-team race in the NL Central.

The Cleveland Indians evened the series with Detroit tonight, taking the game 5-2 behind strong pitching by Fausto Carmona. He lasted eight innings, striking out ten as he lowered his ERA to 3.16 by allowing just one earned run. He ties his teammate Sabathia with 14 wins, third in the AL.

Curtis Granderson got back on the triple train tonight, hitting his fourth since the all-star break. That gives him 19 on the season. He'll need seven more to tie the AL record.

Derrick Goold sees Tuesday night's Cardinals-Brewers game as a microcosm of the St. Louis season:

They fell behind early. They needed a misstep from an opponent to get back in it. And they finished, as they are trying to do in the season's final months, with a surge.

On a night Milwaukee celebrated the 25th anniversary of its 1982 World Series appearance, the Cardinals joined in the spirit with a not-too-subtle reminder. They won that Series the way they won Tuesday night.

And as the Cardinals showed last year, you don't need to be a great team to win the World Series, you just need to get hot in the playoffs.

With the Tigers and Indians tied for the AL Central lead, is it any wonder Bonderman and Sabathia pitched an even game? Both go seven, both allow two runs, both strike out eight. Bonderman walked two to C.C's one, but Sabathia allowed three more hits. The teams are tied at two in the bottom of the eighth, and the game is in the hands of the bullpens.

The Tigers lose big tonight, falling to the Oakland Athletics 7-2. Stewart contributed the most for the A's, reaching base five times in six appearances from the leadoff spot, scoring three runs. The once vaunted Tiger pitching staff has now allowed six or more runs in seven of their last eleven games.

Kevin Millar made the Red Sox miss him a bit as he hits a three-run homer in the bottom of the tenth to give the Orioles a 6-3 walk off win as Baltimore takes two out of three from Boston. Once again, the bullpen, which was supposed to be strengthened at the trading deadline, falls short. Schilling pitched an interesting game, allowing just one unearned run through six innings, walking none but striking out no one either. But Okajima walks a batter and gets an out in the seventh, then Gagne comes in to face Tejada, throws nothing but fastballs, and Tejada gets a hold of one to tie the game.

The Red Sox go 2-4 on the week, the Yankees win 5-1 to pick up three games. Boston now has a four game lead with seven weeks left in the season.

Justin Verlander outpitches Dan Haren tonight, taking home a 5-2 Tigers win over the Oakland Athletics. Thames and Ordonez took Haren deep, only the 13th and 14th homers Dan allowed this season. He had only allowed two since July 1st.

Despite losing 14 of their last 18 coming into the game, the Tigers are still in the hunt for the AL Central title. With their win tonight and the Indians 11-2 loss to the Yankees, the Tigers trail in the Central by just 1/2 game.

Bleed Cubbie Blue notes the Cubs series against the Astros made no sense. They squandered an excellent opportunity to move into first place. Note, too, that while the slump coincides with the injury to Soriano, the leadoff hitters used by Chicago have a .467 OBA in the three games. It's the people hitting behind that slot that have failed to do anything.

The Seattle Mariners took down the Baltimore Orioles this evening, winning by a score of 8-4. It was power at the plate that supplied the win as Guillen, Vidro and Ibanez delivered five runs with three homers. That puts the Mariners over 100 homers with 101, tenth in the American League.

Meanwhile, the Tigers and Yankees were getting trounced. The Tigers fell to Tampa Bay 7-1, while the Blue Jays winged Wang and the relief staff for a 15-4 win. James Shields keeps showing promise as he walked none and struck out nine in seven innings of work, bringing his K/BB to 4.9. Detroit continues their hitting slump that has seen them score less than four runs per game over their last eleven contests.

Chien-Ming Wang lasted just 2 2/3 innings, walking two and striking out three. But nine of the twelve balls in play against him fell for hits, and eight base runners came around to score. Halladay, with a big lead, allowed three homers including two to the hot Robinson Cano, but he also walked one and struck out eight over seven innings of work.

The result puts Seattle .001 ahead of Detroit in the wild card race, with the Yankees 1/2 game back. With Minnesota winning big late, the top five teams should finish the night separated by six games.

Correction: Seattle is ahead of Detroit.

The Angels defeated the Red Sox last night:

While San Francisco cheered last night, and much of baseball booed, the Red Sox simply tried to find a way out of the fifth inning. But they couldn't escape the pivotal, five-run fifth for the Angels, or the nervousness back in New England that came with the Sox' 10-4 loss to Los Angeles. Just as the wait for Barry Bonds to break Hank Aaron's home run record came to an end, the anxiousness of holding off the Yankees officially began.

The Globe sounds a similar note:

As a reluctant but necessary witness to this teeth-gritting spectacle, Terry Francona might have been expected to rise slowly to his feet, push his hands into his pockets, adopt a sour expression, and confine his remarks to a prepared statement in which he said, "In this country, you are innocent until proven guilty."

But since Bud Selig had already used that routine watching Barry Bonds last weekend, the manager was on his own last night to reflect upon the numerous transgressions committed by the Red Sox in a 10-4 beating by the Angels, one that had Boston fans wishing their vehicles were not equipped with rearview mirrors.

The Angels used power, small ball and Red Sox miscues to to score five runs in the fifth, turning around a two run lead by the Red Sox. The problem with trading for a late inning reliever to help your team is that sometimes the team doesn't get to the late innings with a lead.

At the end of play on May 29th, the Red Sox sat in first place, 36-15. The Yankees were 21-29, 14 1/2 games behind Boston. That number screamed 1978. The next day A-Rod distracted the new Toronto third baseman on a pop-up, and the New York comeback began. The Yankees are 42-21 since that time, while Boston played a little above .500 at 32-30. Sometimes a good team plays .500 the rest of the way and still gets caught. That hasn't happened yet, but Boston turned an eastern division rout into an exciting pennant race.

The Indians and Tigers both found some runs tonight as Detroit holds on to the wild card lead with a 6-4 comeback against the Devil Rays and the Indians managed four runs to support Byrd in a complete game shutout.

Ordonez, Guillen and Infante all picked up three hits for the Tigers. All three were part of a four-run seventh that turned a 4-2 deficit into a 6-4 victory. All three picked up a hit in the inning, which started with a Casey homer. Verlander pitched decently, but allowed a three-run homer to Upton. That's only the 12th he's allowed this season, but it was enough to give Miner the decision.

The Indians picked up four runs, and given that they've scored seven in the previous three games, that wasn't bad. Hafner homered and Peralta singled three times. With Byrd getting the win, the Indians now have three ten-game winners, as does Boston and the Mets. Cleveland holds on to first place in the AL Central.

The Tigers and Indians both lost today, putting the Yankees just 1/2 game back in the Wild Card (tied with the Mariners, who also lost), but opening up the race to both Minnesota and Toronto. Since and including July 20th, the Tigers are 4-13, the worst record in the majors. But Detroit and Cleveland aren't the only losing teams in that time involved in the races. The Dodgers, Brewers, Indians, Padres and Mariners all own losing records in that time. On the other side, Arizona, Boston, the Yankees, Philadelphia and Toronto all won over 10 games in that time. So were the American League looked like a five team race for four spots, it's now a five team race for the wild card and close races in two division. All the divisions are close in the NL, with six teams no more than four games out of the wild card. With eight weeks to go, things are heating up.

Even in the AL East, the Yankees picked up the game a week they need to keep the division in site. They went 5-1 to Boston's 4-2 to end the period seven games out with eight weeks to play.

A few weeks ago the AL playoff race looked like it was down to five teams. But with Cleveland losing tonight and New York, Minnesota and Toronto winning, the AL Wild card gets a bit tighter. That puts the Yankees three back of Cleveland, Toronto five and Toronto seven, with Seattle one back pending the outcome of their game with the Angels. With Boston losing, New York ends July seven games back in the division, picking up 3 1/2 games in the month. Two more months like that and the division is tied.

The Yankees won and the Red Sox lost today to end the week with New York eight games behind Boston. That means a loss of 1/2 game by New York this week. Both had good weeks as Boston went 5-2 and the Yankees finished 5-3, including the completion of the suspended game (which finally counts).

One thing that's going to make the Red Sox tough to catch is the hitting of Manny Ramirez. Manny hit his seventh home run since the All-Star break today; he hit just eleven before the mid-summer classic. That's helped Boston to score 5.9 runs per game since the break, up from 5.0 prior to that. The Yankees now have nine weeks to make up eight games. A game a week still gives them the division.

Of course, New York doesn't need to win the division to make the playoffs. While they lost ground to Boston, they gain games on the Indians, the Wild Card leaders. Cleveland won just two of seven this week, and the Yankees now sit four games out of the post season.

The four teams racing for the NL West crown were all involved in high scoring games this afternoon, not always in their favor. The Padres allowed eleven runs today, but scored eighteen as they defeated Houston. Then, in Colorado, the Rockies took two out of three from the Dodgers, by a score of 9-6. Both teams picked up twelve hits, but the Rockies spread the wealth more than LA. Martin and Kent combined for seven hits, while four Rockies collected multiple safeties.

That gave the Diamondbacks a chance to take first place, but the Braves mauled them 14-0. Chipper Jones had a strange line, going one for one with five RBI. His double is described in the play by play as an infield double, but it clear the bases driving in three. He also hit two sacrifice flies.

The Dodgers are Diamondbacks remain separated by percentage points, with the Padres 1/2 game back and the Rockies 3 1/2 back. If this lasts, we can start the massive tie scenario again!

The St. Louis Cardinals mount a late comeback to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers 9-5. Down 5-0 in the fifth, the Cardinals get to Gallardo for four runs, then score five in eighth for the late win. Turnbow was responsible for the loss, giving up four hits to five batters, although Villanueva let his inherited runners scored. The bullpen has allowed a .331 batting average over the last eleven games, in which the Brewers are 3-8.

The loss combined with the Cubs win puts Chicago just 1/2 game behind Milwaukee. The Cardinals are now six back, certainly within striking distance.

The Cubs hammer the Reds bullpen after Harang leaves with a stiff back. They take the game 8-1 with Lee homering once and Soriano going deep twice. Alfonso drove in five runs.

On top of that, the Brewers lose both ends of their double header with the Cardinals. That pulls the top two NL Central teams even in the loss column, with the Cubs now 1 1/2 games back. And the Cardinals gain two, and are now seven out of the division.

Wild card contenders Cleveland and Seattle see a new team in the rear view mirror.

Starting July 2nd, the Yankees sixteen wins versus five losses lead all of Major League baseball in winning percentage. While they've only gained 3 1/2 games on the Red Sox (12-8, .600) during that time, the Red Sox taking two from Cleveland helped bring the Yankees to 4 1/2 games of the Wild Card lead. Here are the contenders for the last playoff spot during this time:

AL Wild Card Contenders, July 2, 2007 through July 24, 2007

Team	Record	WPct
Yankees	16-5	.762
Blue Jays	11-8	.579
Indians	9-10	.474
Mariners	9-11	.450
Twins	9-11	.450

New York picked up six games on the Indians, and 6 1/2 on the Mariners while easily passing the Blue Jays and Twins. At the heart of the comeback are two players who looked awful early in the season, Robinson Cano and Bobby Abreu. Cano's thirty two hits lead the team; he's scored eighteen and driven in nineteen in the twenty one games. Abreu rediscovered his power, slugging .640. He's driven in twenty two. Look at his concentration on the ball in the photo above, eye perfectly on the ball. And of course, Godzilla is right there with them, with nine home runs, twenty RBI and twenty runs scored. At .243/.367/.554, Alex Rodriguez is in a comparative slum (he's scored and driven in 21).

The slumps seemingly over, the Yankees scored 157 runs in these twenty one games, allowing 85. Scoring at that level won't last, but they are no longer also rans in the playoff picture. Three games remain against both the Indians and the Mariners for New York. They've opened the door, now we wait to see if they can move through to the next level.

Last week I noted that the Yankees need to gain one game a week to catch the Red Sox for the division. They did a little better than that as New York won 6 of 8 and the Red Sox won 4 of 7. New York gains 1 1/2 games, leaving them 7 1/2 games out with ten weeks to go.

Both team just completed taking three games out of four after losing the opening game. Tampa Bay defeated New York 14-4 on Friday night, but the Yankees took today's game 21-4, outscoring the Devil Rays 45-12 over the last three games. Alex Rodriguez homered again today, scoring twice and driving in three. He's one RBI away from his tenth straight 100 RBI season, and two home runs shy of 500.

Shelly Duncan homered twice, giving him three in four games. He's an old rookie, with unimpressive minor league number for a first baseman/DH. But he's making the most of his chance, although I suspect he'll go the way of Kevn Maas.

The Red Sox lost 4-2 on Thursday, but they turned on the offense as well, outscoring the White Sox 29-10 over the last three games of that series. Manny picked up two hits and three walks today, driving in four. He's hitting again, collecting four home runs and thirteen RBI in eleven games since the All-Star break.

The Brewer won last night, a 3-2 victory over the Diamondbacks:

Continuing their trend of winning the close ones, especially at home, the Brewers nipped the Arizona Diamondbacks, 3-2, at Miller Park to claim their fourth consecutive victory.

By winning four in a row by one run, the Brewers tied a club record. And, with the Chicago Cubs finally losing to snap their own four-game winning streak, the Brewers moved to 4 ½ games on top of the NL Central.

"That's the name of the game - score one more run than the opposition," said manager Ned Yost, whose club boosted its home record to 34-14, tying Cleveland for the top mark in the majors.

"That's all that matters."

The Brewers are 16-11 in one run games. That's a .593 winning percentage, fourth in the majors. The Cubs, although improved, are 12-15 in one run contests. The four game difference in those close games makes up most of the difference in the standings between the two clubs.

The Blue Jays defeat the Red Sox 2-1 in a game of missed opportunities. Beckett pitched eight good innings, but his offense couldn't come through for the win. Both teams had opportunities to score as the Blue Jays went 2 for 8 with runners in scoring position, the Red Sox 2 for 9. Each team knocked out three doubles, but everyone's timing was off. Jesse Litsch gets his second win and lowers his ERA to 4.02.

The teams split the four game series, good for the Red Sox as Toronto fails to gain any ground. But the Yankees finish off the Devil Rays 7-6, bringing their record in those contests to 7-14. They gain a game on both Boston and Toronto as they take three of four at the Trop. That puts them nine games behind the Red Sox, and they need to keep gaining a game a week for the rest of the season to over take Boston for the AL East title.

All three National League division races tightened last night as the three division leaders lost, and five of the closest trailers won. The NL East saw three blowouts as the Mets lost 8-4 while the Braves won 9-1 and Philadelphia took St. Louis 13-3. Four games separate the three teams now.

In the NL Central, the Cubs afternoon victory was rewarded as Colorado defeated the Brewers 10-6. Neither starter pitched well, but the Rockies bullpen decided the game by shutting out the Brewers for four innings while Villanueva, the first man in for the Brewers, allowed five runs. The win by the Rockies was only the second in their last eleven road games. The Cubs now trail the Brewers by 3 1/2 games.

In the West, Arizona needed a win over the Padres to stay close in the NL West, and the offense came to life with a new hitting coach on the bench as Arizona won 8-3. Kevin Kouzmanoff was a single short of the cycle in the loss, and Doug Davis out pitched Greg Maddux for the win. But the DBacks offense was the star, knocking out fifteen hits, five for doubles.

The Dodgers and Giants played a close game until the end when Los Angeles scored six runs in the top of the ninth to take a 9-1 victory. Brian Sabean spent some time on air last night refuting a Chronicle story that he was about to hold a fire sale if the Giants don't play well this weekend. With the Rockies winning as well, the Padres and Dodgers are in a virtual tie for first place, with Arizona 2 1/2 games back and the Rockies 4 1/2 games back. Four and one half games also separate the six top wild card contenders, so we could be looking at another wild finish in the National League this season.

The Toronto Blue Jays got off to an early 5-1 lead over Cleveland, and as neither starter pitched well the Blue Jays managed to hold on for an 8-6 win. The loss by Cleveland drops them into a tie for the AL Central with the victorious Tigers. Cleveland out-hit Toronto 11-10, but the Blue Jays drew six walks to the Indians' two.

The Cubs defeat the Nationals 4-2 to move to 4 1/2 games behind the Brewers. Bergmann actually outpitched Marshall although both lasted just 5 1/3 innings, but Jason didn't allow a walk. Both left the game having allowed two runs. The Cubs bullpen was better, however, as three singles and a sacrifice fly in the seventh sealed the Cubs victory. Mike Fontenot went 3 for 5 and is now batting .365. Looks like the Cubs finally found a middle infielder who can hit.

The Cardinals turned five double plays tonight in defeating the Diamondbacks 3-2. There was a great example of how luck can change the outcome of a game in the ninth. With a man on first and one out, Drew hit a long fly ball to left center. It was in the air so long Jackson would score easily from first, but the ball bounced over the wall for a double and Jackson had to stop at third. After an intentional walk, Montero grounded into the fifth DP of the night to end the game. The Cardinals pull to 7 1/2 games behind Milwaukee.

The Cubs won a close game, taking Washington down 3-1 behind Zambrano and Soriano. Alfonso picked up two more hits tonight, bringing his total in his return to RFK to four hits in two games. He also scored two runs. Zambrano struck out eight in 6 2/3 innings, and the bullpen added four in their 2 1/3 innings of work. The win leaves the Cubs 5 1/2 game behind the Brewers, who lost earlier today. Since June 1, the Cubs are 20-11, the Brewers 18-11.

If the Phillies are the team to beat in the NL East, the Mets showed the league how it's done today. They waited on Cole Hamels, forcing him to throw 110 pitches in five innings, drawing five walks. Carlos Beltran hit two home runs off him (both solos) and the Mets scored three runs. They added two more off the bullpen on an Easley long ball.

In the meantime, Maine pitched eight efficient innings, allowing just one run while throwing 101 pitches. He didn't issue a walk while striking out six, picking up the win as the Mets took the game 5-2. On the day, the Mets hit five home runs, and the starting pitching allowed just three runs in fourteen innings. The Phillies fall to five games behind the Mets, and also lose 1 1/2 games to the Braves who defeated the Marlins 12-3.

Kaz Matsui is off to a good start this year, and he picked up three hits against the Red Sox tonight as the Rockies take two out of three, winning 7-1 this evening, pinning the first loss of the season on Josh Beckett. Matsui went 5 for 14 in the series. Coupled with the Yankees win, the Red Sox see their lead dwindle to 7 1/2 games.

I was a big worried that there were too many teams getting ahead of their divisions. But with the Mets and Red Sox coming back to the pack and the Brewers not able to take advantage of a weak division, we have six good races right now. That's always fun.

Just how bad is the NL Central? The Pittsburgh Pirates hold second place this moring. If you look at the teams in the division over their last ten games, none owns a winning record. The Astros are 1-9, the Brewers, Cubs and Reds are 3-7, and the Pirates and Cardinals are 4-6. Even within the division, the Brewers (17-8) and the Cardinals (15-12) are the only two teams with a winning record.

While 4-6 in their last ten, the Pirates are 4-1 after a five-game losing streak. Jason Bay leads the charge with a nice 7-11, seven of his eleven hits went for extra bases. Adam LaRoche and Xavier Nady are also contributing as well. It's not exactly something to be excited about in Pittsburgh, but it's sure better than the cellar.

The Red Sox and Yankees each played one run games today. The Yankees had the tying run on third with two outs and Jeter up, but despite a great battle against Francisco Rodriguez, the captain could not deliver, and the Yankees go down 4-3. Mike Mussina pitched a good game, but Scott Proctor gave away the 2-1 lead that was his to hold.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox score three runs over the last two innings, including a ninth inning solo shot by Dustin Pedroia. That made the score 6-4, and Boston needed the insurance as Texas mounted a threat in the ninth, scoring one run but leaving the tying run at first. Boston now holds an 11 1/2 game lead over the second place Orioles and 12 1/2 over the fourth place Yankees. All the hope gained in New York by taking 2 out of 3 from Boston is gone. The Yankees are now two games farther back than when they started that series. Sure, nothing is set yet, but a big difference between now and 1978 is that New York was a lot of games back, but they were still a winning team. Today, the Yankees are much closer to Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Texas than they are to either Boston or wild card leader Detroit.

The San Diego Padres moved into a tie with the Dodgers atop the NL West with a 6-3 win over the Brewers last night. Justin Germano moves to 3-0, allowing two runs in six innings pitched. With no walks last night, he's walked just two in 25 innings this season.

The Padres are on a 10-4 stretch in which they haven't lost two games in a row. During that time, they've outscored their opponents 57-33, nine times allowing two runs or less. Germano's been the best starter in this time period. That's saying a lot as Wells, Peavy and Young all have ERAs under two in the last 14 games.

On the offensive side, the most important player is Kevin Kouzmanoff. He's emerged as a force for the Padres, knocking in 13 runs with eight extra base hits. The rest of the offense is so-so, but with the pitching lights out, four runs a game is more than enough to win.

Justin Verland and C.C. Sabathia pitched well tonight, but Milliliter took home the win as Cleveland scored four times from the seventh inning on to take a 6-3 victory over the Tigers. The win puts Cleveland 1 1/2 game ahead of Detroit in the AL Central. That's Sabathia's 88th win of his career, tying him with Roger Clemens for 16th most wins since 2001.

The Phillies reached the .500 mark today with a 6-4 win over the Braves. The victory also brings them three games behind Atlanta for second place in the NL East.

Shane Victorino picked up his second three-hit game in a row against Atlanta. That raises his career average against the Braves to .326.

Kenny Rogers, pitching in his second inning of relief, comes undone as the Royals score two runs on three hits and two walks. The Tigers fail to score in the bottom of the 12th. They become the Wild Card and travel to New York, while the Twins stay home to host the Oakland Athletics, in a rematch of the 2002 ALDS.

Through games of August 7th, the Tigers were 76-36, Minnesota 65-46, 10 1/2 games back. The Twins go 31-20 while the Tigers fall to 19-31. It's not the most colossal fall of all time (after all, Detroit did make the playoffs), but it's certainly a memorable one.

Congratulations to the Twins for winning the Central, and to Joe Mauer for winning the batting title with a .347 mark.

Neither the Tigers nor the Twins appear to be able to seal the deal on the AL Central. The teams gave each other ample opportunities to put away the division, but instead the Tigers are on a four-game losing streak and the Twins fell in three of their last four contests. It's not like the teams are resting, putting their triple A lineups on the field. For example the Detroit offense if playing the best it has in a while. They've scored 23 runs in the three games. But their solid pitching hasn't shown up, allowing 33 runs in those games. The teams' strength isn't exactly tuning up into the playoffs.

With the Twins, their offense, scored just 12 runs in their last four games while allowing 17. For the month they averaged 4.8 runs per game. They've been totally shutdown by good starting pitching (scroll to the bottom). They've hit .218 against the opponent starters in the last four games without drawing a walk. Often in the playoffs, you face a team with good starting pitching. The Twins aren't exactly striking fear into any of those teams right now.

The Yankees lost 6-5 to the Blue Jays this afternoon as Jeff Karstens stayed in one inning too long. He was fine through six innings, but gave up two hits and his defense allowed a batter to reach on an error. The bullpen came in and allowed Rios to clear the bases with a triple.

But due to the Twins loss, Minnesota can no longer tie the Yankees. The best Detroit can do is a tie with New York, so the Yankees win best record based on a 5-2 record against the Tigers this season.

Derek Jeter went 3 for 3 to raise his batting average to .345. Mauer, who sat, is at .346. Cano went 1 for 4 and sits at .341.

The Padres and Dodgers both win, Los Angeles 4-2 over San Francisco and the Padres 3-1 over the Diamondbacks. Congratulations to both southern California teams on reaching the playoffs! David Wells finally wins one for San Diego, and it's the clincher. He allowed four hits and a walk through six innings, all singles.

And it was a good day for 40-year-olds in San Francisco as well. Greg Maddux pitches seven innings, allowing just three hits and two runs. He runs his record with the Dodgers to 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA. He proved to be a very valuable addition for the stretch run.

The Padres just need a win tomorrow or a Dodger loss to take the division crown. The winner gets to host the NL Central champ, while the loser travels to New York to face the Mets.

The Phillies are eliminated from the playoff picture. We'll see shortly if the Astros survive another day.

Mike Cameron hits a two run homer in the top of the fifth to give the Padres a 2-0 lead over the Diamondbacks. Cameron's done a great job of getting on base in September, with a .393 mark coming into the game.

The Giants scored one in the bottom of the fourth on a Lance Niekro solo homer, but the Dodgers get the run back in the fifth on a Kent single and Drew double.

The St. Louis Cardinals come back with three runs in the bottom of the 8th. Pujols couldn't hit a multi-run homer, but he did single to start the inning and before you know it the Cardinals loaded the bases with none out. That set up a one-out Spiezio triple to clear the bases and knock the Cincinnati Reds out of the playoffs.

Tonight's Astros/Braves games moves into the must win column for the Astros. They'll need to win today and tomorrow and hope the Cardinals lose on Sunday and Monday to force a tie.

To wrap up last night's NL action, the Dodgers come back against Mike Stanton in the ninth, scoring two runs to take a 4-3 lead. Stanton didn't get pounded. He gave up two singles and a walk, but a fielder's choice put a runner at third with two out, and Stanton uncorked a wild pitch.

Saito allowed two singles in his half of the ninth, but also struck out two to earn the save. The win puts the Dodgers in a tie for first place in the NL West, both teams two games in front of the Phillies. A win by the Padres or the Dodgers today puts that team in the playoffs, either as the wild card or the division winner.

But all six teams are still in contention for the massive tie. Here's what needs to happen today:

• Milwaukee defeats St. Louis.
• Philadelphia defeats Florida.
• San Francisco defeats Los Angeles.
• Arizona defeats San Diego.
• Houston defeats Atlanta.
• Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh.

The only game with some leeway is Houston/Atlanta. The Cardinals need to lose all three of their remaining games, and Cincinnati needs to win both of theirs. If that happens, the Astros need to split. St. Louis plays early, however. If they win, that eliminates Cincinnati, and the Astros need to win to keep the chance for a tie alive. A Cardinals win and a Houston loss puts St. Louis in the playoffs and the greatest collapse of all time never happened.

Aaron Harang pitched a brilliant game tonight, striking out 9 and walking none as he goes the distance in a 5-2 Reds win over the Pirates. He strikes out 41 Pirates in 34 innings in 2006 while walking just three.

In Atlanta, Bob Wickman gives up two two-out singles in the ninth, but that's it as the Braves down Houston 4-1 to end the Astros winning streak. This is actually good news for the three-way tie scenario in the NL Central. The Astros needed to go 1-2 this weekend if the Reds sweep. With the Cardinals winning big tonight, that will reduce the chances to a Reds sweep, and a split of the last two games for the Astros, and the Cardinals losing three in a row. But no matter the outcome of the Brewers/Cardinals, the Reds live to play another day.

The Padres win and the Phillies loss means the three-way West/Wild Card tie is teetering on the brink of destruction. We're down to just one scenario in which the Phillies, Dodgers and Padres end up tied at the end of the season. Philadelphia needs to win all three games from the Marlins, the Dodgers need to win just one of three from the Giants, and the Padres need to lose all three against the Diamondbacks. If you believe each game is a 50/50 proposition, then the odds of that happening are 3 in 512. Since the odds of the Padres beating the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers beating the Giants are better than 50/50, the odds are probably longer.

We still have some hope in the NL Central, however. The Reds can afford to lose a game if the Cardinals and Astros lose off of theirs. Cincinnati still needs a lot of help, however. Even if they sweep the Pirates, two wins by Houston or St. Louis over the weekend eliminates the Reds.

So for today:

• Houston defeats Atlanta.
• Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh.
• Philadelphia defeats Florida.
• Milwaukee defeats St. Louis.
• Arizona defeats San Diego.
• San Francisco defeats Los Angeles.

This was a fun exercise. It's even more fun that going into the final weekend of the season, six teams are still in contention for three playoff spots.

Correction: As pointed out in the comments, the odds are 3 in 512, not 1 in 512.

The Dodgers finish off the Rockies 19-11, killing the last chance for a five way tie. They do, however, gain 1/2 game on the Padres, making a three way tie for the West and the wild card still possible. Loney failed to triple in his last at bat, but he finishes the day with four hits, two homers, nine RBI and eleven total bases.

In Pittsburgh, Oswalt and the pen made the three run fifth hold up as the Astros shutout the Pirates 3-0. The Pirates outhit the Astros 5-3, but Houston drew four walks and bunched their hits. They're now just one game behind the Cardinals in the Central, but out of wild card contention. They'll need to win the division this year to make the playoffs.

The five way tie is dead, and a four way tie is on life support. Houston needs to win its last four games and Los Angeles needs to lose its last four games to even have a chance for St. Louis, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Houston to finish in a bunch.

The two three-way ties are still possible, however. The loss by San Diego was key last night, as it allowed both the Dodgers and Phillies to gain. It's pretty simple at this point, the Phillies need to win two more than the Padres and one more than the Dodgers.

The other three-way tie is more tenuous with the Reds loss last night. That puts the Reds four games down in the loss column, and the Cardinals have the game in hand. The Reds can afford to lose one game at most, and that only works if the Cardinals go on a five game losing streak. If the Reds win all four, St. Louis would need to go 1-4, while the Astros finish 2-2.

So concentrating on the two-three way ties, the best outcomes for today:

• Houston defeats Pittsburgh.
• Los Angeles defeats Colorado.
• Philadelphia defeats Washington.
• Cincinnati defeats Florida.
• Milwaukee defeats St. Louis.
• Arizona defeats San Diego.

If you'd like to see the four way tie, however, root for the Phillies and Dodgers to lose and St. Louis to win.

With the four American League playoff teams set, the Yankees last night took control of the race for home field throughout the playoffs. Both Detroit and Minnesota lost, making the Yankees magic number against both two. The Yankees won the season series with the Tigers, so they just need to tie Detroit to gain best record in the league and home field in round two of the playoffs. The Yankees and Twins split, but New York leads Minnesota by two with four to play. All the Bronx Bombers need to do is split their last four games and they'll own the home field as long as they stay in the playoffs.

That could be important if they play the Twins in the first round. Minnesota is a great home team, the best in the majors. The Yankees are number 2, however, and also number 2 on the road. The Tigers, on the other hand, are the best road team in the majors, so that may negate the Yankees home field advantage to a certain extent.

Oakland appears to be out of a chance for home field in the first round. They trail Detroit by three games with four to play, but Detroit holds the tie breaker. One more win by the Tigers or loss by the Athletics and Oakland will be visiting the Central winner in the first round. And that's okay, too, because the A's are a very good team on the road.

The Phillies just needed a scoreless bottom of the ninth, but Zimmerman walked with the bases loaded to tie the game. The Nationals and Phillies are going to the tenth.

Houston completed their comeback, tying the Pirates in the top of the ninth. Luke Scott collected the clutch hit, a two-out single to drive in Tavares. Houston is now batting in the eleventh.

There's a pitching duel in St. Louis as the game is tied in at one in the eighth. Chris Young allowed just three hits so far. Reyes allowed five hits and four walks through six, but no extra base hits.

The Dodgers and Rockies were tied at four, but the second run of the seventh gives the Dodgers a 5-4 lead. Both Cook and Lowe struck out four and walked one.

Update: Abraham Nunez doubles in Coste to put the Phillies up 6-5 in the 10th. Nunez has scored twice and driven in one.

Update: Tyler Johnson throws a wild pitch that allows Khalil Greene to score. Greene pinch ran for Piazza after Mike picked up his second single of the game. The Padres take a 2-1 lead in the eighth.

Update: Logan and Schneider each singles in the 10th, with an advancing groundout that's enough to give the Nationals a run and a 6-6 tie with the Phillies. They go the 11th.

Update: With two on in the bottom of the 8th, Cla Meredith comes in to pitch to Albert Pujols. Albert wins this battle with a three-run homer to put the Cardinals on top 4-2.

Update: Bard doubled with two out in the top of the ninth, but Wainwright retired Roberts on a grounder to second to end the game. The Cardinals end their losing streak and reduce their magic number in the Central to four.

Update: The Pirates put men on first and third with two outs in the bottom of the 12th.

Update: Duffy hits a fly ball to left that slices away from Lane, but Jason out runs it and makes the catch. The Astros will bat in the 13th.

Update: The Dodgers defeat the Rockies 6-4. That would also have killed the five way tie if the Reds had won. The pull to one game behind the Padres. The Dodgers pen throws three scoreless innings, allowing one hit and striking out four.

Update: With two out in the top of the 14th and no one on, the Pirates walk Berkman intentionally. The pitchers spot is due up next, and no one is warming in the Astros bullpen. Sampson grounds out to second to end the inning. I'm impressed he got some wood on the ball.

Update: With a man on first an two out, Ryan Howard is intentionally walked for the second time in the game. Conine works the count to 3-1, but strikes out looking to end the inning. Jeff was a bit rejuvenated when he came over from the Orioles, but tonight, as he's 0-7 and looks like he's afraid to swing the bat.

Update: Bruntlett walks to start the top of the 15th for the Astros. Biggio tries to sacrifice but bunts the ball too hard and the Pirates get the runner at second. Palmiero, however, follows with a single to right to put runners at first and third with one out.

Update: A Coste double and a bunt single by Bourn puts men on first and third for the Phillies with none out. Meanwhile, Ausmus hits a sacrifice fly to center, moving the Astros ahead of the Pittsburgh 7-6.

Update: The Phillies hit two balls to Lopez at shortstop with the infield in. Coste holds on the first one, which puts men on 2nd and 3rd. Coste tries to score on the second one, but is thrown out at the plate on a close play.

Update: Rollins triples down the right field line to drive in two and the Phillies take an 8-6 lead. That gives Jimmy three hits and four RBI.

Update: The Astros retire the Pirates in order in the bottom of the 15th to take their eighth straight win. They keep pace with the Cardinals, just 1 1/2 games back.

Meanwhile, two singles and an error load the bases for Washington with none out. RFK is the Phillies home field now as there seem to be nothing but citizens of Philadelphia in the stands.

Update: Church hits a sacrifice fly to cut the lead to 8-7. Schneider, follows, however, with a double play grounder to Utley to end the game in 14 innings.

What a night! Two games now separate the Padres, Dodgers and Phillies. The Astros keep pressure on the Cardinals, and despite the loss, the Reds still have a shot. The Astros and Pirates come back for a 12:30 start tomorrow. I suspect that will be a lethargic game.

The Oakland Athletics won the game and the American League West last night as they downed the Seattle Mariners 12-3 while Texas cruised to a 5-2 victory over LAnaheim. Kelvim Escobar couldn't get out of the second inning as the Rangers scored five runs in the first two frames. That was all they needed as Robinson Tejada and the pen kept the Angels at bay the rest of the way. Mark Teixeira hit his 30th home run of the season. After hitting just nine in the first half, he found his home run stroke again. And it really appears he was just trading doubles for homers, as his total of two baggers dropped from 31 before the break to 13 after.

The A's pounded out 19 hits against the Mariners, including seven for extra bases. The game was a good example of how Oakland quickly rebuilt this team. After missing the playoffs in 2004, Beane sold off two of his star pitchers. The 2005 team was young and inexperienced, but by the end of the season it gelled into a winning squad. Beane then added good veterans to fill in the holes this season, and the Athletics are back on top in the west. No five-year plans here! Rich Harden, one of the young pitchers replacing Hudson and Mulder, impressed again in his second start since coming off the DL. He pitched five shutout innings, giving him 1 run allowed in eight innings since coming back. He's also struck out 12 and walked just 2.

Nick Swisher was one of the rookies worked into the offense in 2005. He hit home run number 34 last night. He ranks 6th in the AL in walks with 94, and gives the Athletics someone who gets on base and hits for power. He's just entering his prime.

The other A's homer last night came from Milton Bradley. Bradley, along with Thomas and Loaiza, were the veterans Beane picked up to fill holes in the 2005 team. At times they weren't 100%, but healthy in the second half each contributed to the Oakland stretch run that has them 35-16 since the start of August.

Jason Kendall picked up four hits last night. His second half turnaround is equally impressive. He was a poor leadoff man in the first half, posting a .339 OBA. But he's now at .399 since the All-Star break, just what a team wants from a #1 hitter.

Congratulations to the Oakland Athletics on their return to the playoffs! They've accomplished more in two years than some teams do in a decade. It makes me wonder what the Marlins will be like in 2007 if they fill in holes with vets.

The Dodgers get six strong innings from Greg Maddux as they take an 11-4 victory over the Rockies. That puts Los Angeles in first place in the wild card race, a game ahead of the Phillies. They still trail the Padres by two in the west.

The Red Sox pick up a 5-1 win as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays can't take advantage of Schilling being a bit wild. David Ortiz hit his 54th home run tonight. Before the game there was a ceremony with Foxx's daughter and Ruth's grand daughter honoring Ortiz's achievement. I heard Nanci Foxx Canaday interviewed on the radio during the game. She asked Papi to hit a home run for her, and was very pleased when he did.

Meanwhile, the Tigers defeated the Blue Jays 4-3, knocking Toronto back into third place. At least they got to enjoy second for a day. The win keeps pace with the Yankees, who won 5-4. The Tigers just need to tie Minnesota to win the Central, but they need to finish one game ahead of the Yankees to get home field throughout the playoffs.

Jeter and Cano each sent 2 for 4, leaving them separated by two points in the batting race, Cano at .343, Jeter at .341. Mauer did not play, leaving his batting average at .349. The Twins win 3-2 as Santana picks up his 19th win of the year. It looks like he'll end the season with a 2.77 ERA as I expect the Twins to give him a week off so he starts game 1 of the ALDS.

The Athletics get off on the right foot this evening, scoring five runs in their first two innings against the Mariners. The Rangers do the same thing to the Angels, as both clubs go up 5-0. If those scored hold up, the Athletics clinch the West.

Both the Reds and Astros win, Cincinnati over Florida 5-3 while the Astros defeat Pittsburgh 7-4. Biggio, batting sixth tonight, drove in three runs. It was a bend but don't break night for Pettitte as he gave up 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings but only allowed three runs.

It was pretty much an all-bullpen night for Cincinnati. The Marlins worked Belisle, making his first start of the season, getting him to throw 77 pitches in 3 2/3 innings. The Marlins couldn't take advantage, scoring just one run. But David Ross' two homers off Dontrelle gave the Reds pen a big cushion, and they allowed just two runs the rest of the way for the victory.

If the Cardinals lose their game with the Padres, the Astros move to 1 1/2 games back, the Reds to 2 1/2.

The wins by Houston and Cincinnati helped toward some kind of massive tie, but the win by San Diego changed the dynamic of the scenario. In order to achieve a five-way tie involving the Padres, San Diego needs to lose all of its remaining games. I don't think that will happen.

San Diego's win also makes the three-way tie for the division and wild card less likely. They own a two game lead with six to play, and no one to challenge them directly.

However, there is another five team tie scenario caused the by Cardinals losing streak. It's still a long shot, but if Los Angeles and the Phillies finish 1-5, then a 3-4 performance by St. Louis, a 5-1 finish by Houston and a 6-0 streak by the Reds gives us a three-way tie for the Central with two other teams tied for the wild card.

San Diego's win also makes the three-way tie for the division and wild card less likely. They own a two game lead with six to play, and no one to challenge them directly. A big tie is highly unlikely at this point. Then again, it was also very unlikely that St. Louis would still be waiting for a division title at this point.

So here are the best results for today for a massive tie in the NL:

• Washington defeats Philadelphia.
• Houston defeats Pittsburgh.
• Cincinnati defeats Florida.
• St. Louis defeats San Diego.
• Colorado defeats Los Angeles.

The Padres/Cardinals game can actually go either way. If the Padres win, it just changes the massive tie scenario from involving the Padres to involving the Reds.

Scott Linebrink allows a single and a walk in the ninth, but strikes out Scott Rolen to end the game, a 6-5 win for the Padres. That puts them two games ahead of the Dodgers with six to play. Meanwhile, the Astros and Reds move a game closer to the Cardinals, 2 1/2 and 3 1/2 respectively. With six losses in a row, the NL Central is competitive again.

This is the third 6-5 loss in the six game losing streak for the Cardinals and the fourth one-run loss. They've only been outscored by 11 runs in the six games.

Josh Suchon wonders why the Athletics can't finish off a foe:

This isn't helping the A's reputation as a team unable to finish off an opponent.

True, those nine straight losses in potential clinching games came in the playoffs. This is the regular season, it's only been potential clinchers they've lost, and they still have another week's worth of games to win the American League West.

But even if only five players remain from the 2003 team that blew three chances to end the Red Sox season in the division series, and only two players were in an A's uniform for all nine losses, the setbacks the last two days weren't a good omen.

With a 15-0 record against Seattle this season, you would think the A's could take 2 of 3 from the Mariners.

A five way tie still remains a possibility, with the three main wild card contenders winning yesterday, it's not very likely. If the Astros win all of their remaining games, San Diego needs to go 1-6 this week, and I don't think the probability of that is very high. But the following is one way to get a five way tie:

Record over last week of season

Team	Record
San Diego	1-6
Philadelphia	2-5
Los Angeles	2-4
St. Louis	4-4
Houston	7-0

It also works if you give each team one less win. So the Cardinals can sweep the Padres and keep this scenario alive.

What would be every bit as fun, however, is separate three way ties. The Padres, Dodgers and Phillies tie for the Wild Card and NL West, while the Cardinals, Astros and Reds tie for the NL Central. The Reds did a good job moving up by taking 2 out of three so far from the Cubs. In order to get into this situation, St. Louis would need to play a makeup game on Monday. So, on Monday next, there would be a makeup game and an NL West playoff game. If the Monday game forces a central tie, Tuesday would be the Wild Card game and game one of the NL Central playoff. Then Wednesday would be the final game of the NL Central playoff. The NLDS probably couldn't start until Thursday (although if the wild card came from the west, they could play the Mets on Wednesday).

So if the Reds go 7-0, the Astros 6-1 and the Cardinals 3-5, we get a tie. Notice there is leaway here, as the Cincinnati going 4-3, Houston 3-4 and the Cardinals 0-8 works too.

So for all these massive tie scenarios, here's what I'd like to see today:

• Cincinnati defeats Chicago.
• Houston defeats Philadelphia.
• St. Louis defeats San Diego.

This would pull the idle Dodgers into a tie with the Phillies and one game behind the Padres. And in the NL Central, the Astros and the Reds can afford to have St. Louis win as long as they keep pace.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog links to the You Tube video of the Tigers' celebration.

I've been helping my daughter with her AP physics homework, so I didn't have time to watch the game tonight. But the boxscore tells me Houston was successful in its quest to mount a comeback in the NL Central by sweeping the Cardinals. Clemens pitched five strong innings, allowing just one run, and left with a 3-1 lead. The bullpen gave that back, and the Astros went to the bottom of the seventh tied at 3. But Berkman got the bat on the ball, driving in a runner from third with a ground out, and Huff homered to put the Astros up 7-3, the eventual final. The Cardinals came into the series with a magic number of five, and they leave with the same. Houston trails by 3 1/2 with a week to play. Remember, the Cardinals have a makeup game with the Monday after the season ends if needed.

The Tigers defeated the KC Royals 11-4 to clinch a playoff spot. Congratulations to the Tigers on a great turnaround .

Correction: The Tigers clinched a playoff spot, not the division. That's what I get for trying to blog in the middle of a party.

It wasn't a good night for the massive tie scenario. The Padres win and the Dodgers loss put Los Angeles 1 1/2 games back in the west. I'd rather see the three teams stay within a game of each other.

Jake Peavy pitched an impressive game, striking out 11 over eight innings. He needed to pitch that well, as San Diego scored just two runs in a 2-1 victory. It's too bad Young and Peavy won't be facing the Pirates in the playoffs. However, they may not be facing the Mets right away, either. They've taken a 1 1/2 game lead on St. Louis for the second home field advantage in the NLDS. The Padres start a three game series in St. Louis tomorrow

And with Houston taking the first three games against St. Louis, we have the possibility of a five way tie out there. If Houston goes 8-0, the Padres can win two of their remaining games and St. Louis four. The Dodgers and Phillies would need three wins each. Note that it doesn't matter if St. Louis ends the season with the same record as the other three. If they win the division, they're not involved in the playoff.

All three teams competing for two spots in the NL Playoffs won last night, keeping the three within a game of each other. The losses by Florida and San Francisco pretty much kill the chance of anything but a three way tie.

Here's what I'd like to see happen today:

• Pittsburgh defeats San Diego.
• Los Angeles defeats Arizona.
• Philadelphia defeats Florida.

I'd like to see the two teams with a game in hand 1/2 back when they make that game up on Monday. That way, if they win, we get a three-way tie. Going into the last day of the season, a three-tie gives us the best odds of remaining in that tie at the end of the day.

There are eight possible combinations for the three teams on the last day of play. But any one combination where the teams are not tied, there is only one possible way to get a three way tie. For example, if San Diego is ahead of both Los Angeles and Philadelphia, then the only way we get a three way tie is if SD loses and LA and Philadelphia win. But if all three are tied, then we tie if all three win or all three lose. So if Sunday morning, all three are tied, we have a 25% chance at the three-way scenario, but just 12.5 if one of the teams is one game up or one game back.

The Tigers are on the verge of accomplishing a remarkable turnaround. Their magic number is two to make the playoffs, meaning a Detroit win and a Chicago White Sox loss today put the Tigers in the post season. They've broken a string of twelve straight seasons of losing records, often in the low .400s. In 2002-2003, they combined to lose 225 games while winning just 98. How did they do it?

Compared to 2005, the main offensive improvement is power. They added about 20 points of slugging percentage which gave them about 0.4 more runs per game. Last season, two players barely reached 20 home runs, and the team high was 21. This season, four are well over 20 and Guillen needs just one more to reach that goal. The team should end up with about 30 more home runs overall.

The biggest improvement came on the pitching side. The Tigers in 2005 posted a 4.51 ERA. That's down 0.75 runs. Again, home runs are a big factor. The pitchers gave up 193 in 2005, 150 so far in 2006. That means they'll come in about 30 home runs lower. That's at least a 60 run turnaround right there.

So the Tigers are about 1.05 runs per game better than last season, or 170 runs for the year. That's good for about 17 games in the standings, and being a little lucky, the Tigers are doing even better than that, already surpassing 88 wins. It's not a super team, but health on the batting side and maturity on the pitching side paid off this season.

The Tigers and Twins both played to 7-3 finals tonight, but Detroit picked up the victory by that score while Minnesota suffered the loss. Silva was back to a high hits allowed performance as Baltimore knocked out 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings against him. Brian Roberts singled, doubled and homered, scoring three times and driving in three.

Meanwhile, the Tigers picked up nine hits, five for extra bases and the bullpen allowed just one hit over 3 1/3 innings to down the Royals. Detroit now has the separation it needs to insure a clean division win as they go up 1 1/2 games on the Twins.

I'm not sure if a three-way tie is massive, but here's what is best for today:

• Philadelphia defeats Florida.
• Los Angeles defeats Arizona.
• Pittsburgh defeats San Diego.

I'm not falling into the trap of rooting for the Marlins again. However, a Marlins sweep, a Pirates sweep and a Diamondbacks sweep would make things interesting once again.

The three way race for the final two NL playoff spots possesses a nice symmetry. Here are the three teams ranked by runs per game and ERA.

2006 NL Ranks

Team	Runs/Game	ERA
San Diego	13th	1st
Los Angeles	4th	4th
Philadelphia	1st	13th

The run differences are about the same. The Padres and Phillies are each +36, the Dodgers are +48. Even though the Padres and Phillies have the same difference in runs scored, they Pythagorean method predicts their winning percentages exactly. Given the same run differential, the team with the fewer runs allowed will do better. It's a nice example that there are many ways to approach the same point; great pitching for the Padres, great hitting for the Phillies, and being good at both for the Dodgers.

All the fans who left the Baltimore game this afternoon missed a late inning comeback by the birds as Melvin Mora doubled in two in the bottom of the eighth to give the Orioles a 4-3 win over the Tigers. Despite five hits and five walks in six innings against Robertson, the Birds only managed two runs. Rodney blew the game in the eighth as he set up Mora with a hit batter and a single.

Neither the Twins nor the White Sox could take advantage of the loss however, as neither of them could score tonight. Josh Beckett out shone Johan Santana as he put up eight scoreless innings, walking none and striking out five. David Ortiz added two home runs to set the Red Sox record and stretch it to 52. Sananta will need to win his last two starts to reach 20 wins.

The White Sox lost by an even bigger margin. Rookie Jake Woods, with an undistinguished pro career so far, didn't walk a batter for seven innings and didn't allow a run to the White Sox. Adrian Beltre reached the 20 home run mark with a grand slam as the Mariners took the game 9-0.

So Detroit's magic number goes down one to ten. They're even with the Twins in the loss column, so even if Detroit wins all their games, they need a Minnesota loss to take the division.

Update: As a reader points out, the Tigers magic number over the Twins is 9, since if they tie the Tigers win the division based on winning the season series over Minnesota. However, since a three-way tie is still possible, I'm not sure that's totally correct.

As long as the Giants keep winning, they get to stay in the massive tie scenario. With the top three teams so close, today's results don't matter that much, but this is probably the best outcome:

• San Francisco defeats Milwaukee.
• Arizona defeats San Diego.
• Los Angeles defeats Pittsburgh.

Since the Padres have one game in hand vs. the Dodgers, I rather have them 1/2 game behind than 1/2 game ahead.

The Giants are trying to pull me back in to a four-way tie scenario, but I'll resist it for now. Note, however, that the Giants trail the Dodgers by 3 1/2 games. That's one of the differences the that will allow a sweep of the Dodgers over the final weekend to result in a LA-SF tie.

The Phillies and Dodgers are tied for the Wild Card lead right now, and both trail the Padres by 1/2 game. That's a good situation for the three way tie. Since none of these teams play each other, meaning fewer complications (if x needs three wins and y needs three wins and x plays y, it can't happen). So if each of the three teams gets the same number of wins over the next eleven days, the tie happens.

The Phillies won 6-2 over the Cubs tonight as Brett Myers threw a complete game. That lowers the team's ERA for the month of September to 3.76 The Phillies have the best offense in the National League this season, and with the pitching coming around down the stretch, they find themselves close to a playoff berth. If they can carry that quality of pitching into the playoffs, they'll be a tough team to beat.

The Yankees dropped their game to the Blue Jays tonight 3-2. Roy Halladay didn't get the win, however:

Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Roy Halladay left Wednesday night's game against the New York Yankees in the fourth inning with a strained forearm.

After Bernie Williams fouled off a pitch, manager John Gibbons, pitching coach Brad Arnsberg and trainer George Poulis went to mound to see Halladay.
Halladay didn't even attempt one warmup pitch before leaving the field. The Yankees led 1-0.

The loss didn't matter, however, as the Twins defeated the Red Sox 8-2. Boston led 2-1 after seven innings, but the Twins scored four runs off Hansen in the 8th and three more off Corey in the ninth. That spoiled David Ortiz's 50th home run of the year, tying Jimmy Foxx for the Red Sox single season record.

The Red Sox loss gives the Yankees their ninth straight Eastern Division title. Congratulations to the Yankees! Cashman and Torre did an excellent job putting this team together and adjusting to the injuries and failures of players. This season presented them with some of their toughest challenges of their tenures, and they met them all successfully.

The chance of a massive tie are very slim at this point. The Reds, Astros, Marlins and Giants all tanked. I really thought one of those teams would keep it close. But we still have a shot at the three-way tie, so here's what to look for tonight.

• Philadelphia defeats Chicago.
• Arizona defeats San Diego.
• Los Angeles defeats Pittsburgh.

It would not hurt if the Giants went on a winning streak and crept back into the race, but I'm not counting on that. It would be good for the Dodgers and Padres to continue to trade first place while the Phillies catch up 1/2 game at a time. I'd like to see the teams tied sooner rather than later, so the end game doesn't depend on one team winning two and another losing two. Get them even, and hope that being evenly matched plays out that way over the last few games.

The Oakland Athletics dropped their magic number by one last night, defeating the Indians 7-3. The Angels kept pace, but they remain 6 1/2 games out with seven games left between the two clubs. Even if Oakland doesn't win a game against another team, they only need to take 3 of 7 from the Angels to win the west.

Kirk Saarloos posted a wild pitching line last night. He threw 113 pitches in just five innings. He struck out 11, but allowed 8 hits and walked four. That meant the Indians were 8 for 12 when they put the ball in play against Kirk. The game pulled his strikeouts and walks even for the year at 51. I wonder how long he'll last striking out less than a batter every other inning. Unlike Wang, balls in play against Kirk seem to find the hole.

The Massive tie isn't going to happen with the Florida Marlins. To tie San Diego, the Marlins need to go 11-0, with San Diego finishing 6-6. But to do that, the Marlins knock the Phillies out of the massive tie, so it's time to be realistic and drop the Marlins.

I'm holding on to the Giants for another day, however, If they go 12-0, the Padres can go 7-5, the Dodgers 7-4, and the Phillies 8-3. Since the Giants play the Dodgers the last weekend, they still have a chance to control their own destiny if they pick up two games on the southern Califonia teams.

The more realistic tie line is the three-way tie between San Diego, Los Angeles and Philadelphia. Last night's results were perfect for this. The Dodger tried to mount another comeback, scoring five runs late. But the Pirates stayed on their roll, scoring four of their own in the 8th inning to take a 10-6 win. Ian Snell continues to impress down the stretch, as he struck out seven in six innings and allowed just one run. The heart of the Pirates order acted like table setters last night, going six for thirteen and scoring eight runs. Bautista drove in five batting behind them.

That gave San Diego the chance to move back into first place, and they took it. Once again, the Padres moved out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning, but Clay Hensley didn't blow it. He allowed two runs over six innings, and the pen only allowed a walk over three frames as the Padres took the game 5-2.

The Phillies gain 1/2 game on the pair, as Jamie Moyer threw seven inning of one run ball. He exhibited perfect control, walking none and striking out three as he beat his original team (back in the 1980s when Pluto was still a planet). He's turning out to be a great pickup for Philadelphia.

So 1 1/2 games separate the three teams with about a dozen games left. Will they trade wins and losses and places in the standings the rest of the way? Or will one or two of them break out and take the final playoff positions? While a three way tie isn't massive, it hasn't happened before, and we'll get a two day playoff. I'll take that.

The Yankees defeat the Blue Jays 6-3, eliminating Toronto from the AL East title. The Twins grab a 7-3 win from the Red Sox, and that reduces the Yankees magic number for the division to one. At this point, the best the Red Sox can do is tie at the end of the regular season and force a playoff game. The Twins magic number to eliminate Boston from the Wild Card race is four, meaning if they sweep, the Red Sox are done for the year.

Jeff Karstens did not pitch well for the Yankees tonight, but he didn't pitch badly either. He gave up 10 hits and 3 walks in 6 1/3 innings, but kept the ball in the park and the Blue Jays only touched him for 3 runs. That was enough for his second win. Graza pitched a similar game for Minnesota, so the rookies get the wins as their offenses supply plenty of support.

It's looking bad for the five way tie, but I'm going to keep the Marlins in at least one more day. Here's what I'd like to see happen this evening:

• Philadelphia defeats Chicago.
• Florida defeats New York.
• San Francisco defeats Colorado.
• Arizona defeats San Diego.
• Pittsburgh defeats Los Angeles.

The Marlins have six games left with the Phillies. Letting the Phillies surge ahead a bit, then having the Marlins bring them back to the back is one way of getting a tie here. That's why I'm showing the Phillies winning tonight. Their losses in the next two weeks best come against Florida.

It was another bad night for the massive tie scenario. The Dodgers and Padres splitting their series helped, but the Phillies lost to the Cubs, the Marlins lost to the Mets and the Giants were blown out by the Rockies. Colorado batted eight times at Coors field last night and scored in seven of the innings as they mauled the Giants 20-8. Justin Hampson picked up the win by allowing just six runs in five innings. Atkins and Baker each drove in six runs. The top three batting slots for the Rockies combined to go eight for fourteen with nine runs scored and seven RBI.

The Cubs are turning into quite the spoiler. They knocked the Reds for a loop over the weekend, and last night blasted away at the Phillies. That should send the team out on a positive note.

It will be interesting to see if the Mets still think the Marlins are in the wild card race. After clinching, I'm sure Randolph wants to give his regulars a day off. That's not proper etiquette against a contending team. But Florida is now 4 1/2 games behind the Padres, and the Mets might feel that's far enough. This race is very close to being the Dodgers, Padres and Phillies for the last two spots in the NLDS.

Update: Felipe Alou was in his second season as a player the last time the Giants allowed 20 runs in a game.

The Mets defeat the Marlins 4-0 as Trachsel and three relievers spin a four hitter. New York wins its first division since 1988 and is the first team in the majors to clinch a playoff spot. Congratulations to the Mets on a fantastic regular season.

The Marlins loss, however, likely fries their chances at the wild card. We'll see how the other wild card games play out tonight, but in my mind they are through.

Mike Teevan of MLB was kind enough to call me back and explain the scenario of three teams from the save division tying for both the division lead and the wild card. This possibility exists in both the AL Central and the NL West. According to Mike, there would be a two game playoff for the division, and the two losing teams would then play another game for the wild card. However, it is being discussed that if the two game playoff results in a 1-0, 1-1, 0-1 result, that the third playoff game would be abandoned, the 1-0 team would be the division winner and the 1-1 team would get the wild card. Stay tuned.

The Massive Tie is looking less massive everyday, although a three-way tie is still quite possible. Here's the best results for today.

• Philadelphia defeats Chicago.
• Florida defeats New York.
• San Francisco defeats Colorado.
• Los Angeles defeats San Diego.

The Padres and Dodgers need to split the rest of their schedule so that Florida and San Francisco can catch up. Philadelphia can lose to the Marlins, but that's about it.

The Boston Red Sox swept a double header from the Yankees yesterday, preventing New York from clinching the AL East and reducing the Yankees lead to single digits at 9 1/2 games. David Ortiz hit his 49th home run in game one, leaving him one shy of the Red Sox record of 50. The difference in the games were the bullpens, however. The Yankees received two solid starts; both Wright and Mussina pitched six innings, allowing two runs. Mussina was in control, walking one and striking out seven. But the Yankees bullpen was not up to the task yesterday. In game one, Ron Villone allowed four runs in one inning of work, walking three batters. In game two, three innings by three relievers resulted in three runs. In six innings, the Yankees' bullpen allowed seven runs yesterday.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox pen was given more work with stellar results. The Boston relievers pitched 7 1/3 innings, allowing just one run and picking up two wins and two saves for Mike Timlin. They walked fewer in two games (2) than Villone did in his inning.

Taking three of four from the Yankees leaves the Red Sox 7 1/2 games out in the Wild Card race as they host a three game series with Minnesota on Tuesday. It's do or die time for Boston.

It was a good day for a small massive tie as both the Padres and Phillies won. This put San Diego 1/2 game ahead of Los Angeles, and the Phillies one game back in the wild card. The Marlins and Reds lost, and it's just too complicated to get a reasonable tie scenario including Cincinnati, so the Reds join the Astros as a team I'm leaving out of the massive tie.

I've been working on the number to see what's possible. The most wins San Diego and Los Angeles can collect to make a five way tie possible is 85. That would require the Marlins to go 11-2 and the Giants 11-3. Neither team looks capable of that at the moment. Still, the way these team have streaked this season, nothing is out of the question.

Here's the scenario in which the five teams end up with 85 wins:

Team	Record
Florida	11-2
San Francisco	11-3
Philadelphia	8-5
Los Angeles	7-6
San Diego	7-7

The possibility of a makeup game between the Giants and the Cardinals the day after the season ends makes this all that much more interesting. But if the Giants and Marlins keep losing, I'll start rooting for the three way tie between San Diego, Los Angeles and Philadelphia.

The Giants and Cardinals lost the game today due to rain. It won't be made up until the end of the season, and only if needed. So imagine the massive tie, with the Giants 1/2 game out or 1/2 game up. They have to play the game on Monday, and if the season ends in a tie of three or more teams, the playoff doesn't start until Tuesday. Super cool.

Just like yesterday, the top five teams in the wild card race need a win.

• Cincinnati defeats Chicago.
• Florida defeats Atlanta.
• Philadelphia defeats Houston.
• San Francisco defeats St. Louis.
• San Diego defeats Los Angeles.

Another result like yesterday and we may need to start talking about a three-way tie between the Dodgers, Padres and Phillies, however.

The Padres scored eleven runs in the first three innings and Woody Williams and Brian Sweeney combined to allow just two runs as San Diego moved back to 1/2 game of the Dodgers in the NL West. It was only the second time in a month that the Padres hit three home runs in a game. With 14 three homer games, they're tied for 10th in the NL with the Dodgers.

The front end of the massive tie scenario did well yesterday, with Los Angeles, San Diego and Philadelphia separated by two games. But we're starting to get some separation between the three teams in front and the three teams in back.

With the Phillies winning this afternoon, the Mets magic number remained at one, and a win over the Pirates would trigger a celebration. But with the score tied 2-2 in the bottom of the ninth, Randa drew a two-out walk. And just as Keith Hernandez was emploing us to watch how Paulino's front shoulder flew open when he swung, Ronny kept it in and blasted a double to the wall in left center that scored Randa from third. The Pirates win 3-2.

The Mets announcers also pointed out Heilman was cheating. He barely has a toe on the rubber when he pitches, and you're supposed to have your foot in contact with the slab. I bet a lot of pitchers do that, but someone should watch for that in the playoffs.

The Phillies won, but that's the only positive today toward reaching a massive tie for the West/Wild Card in the National League. The Reds and Giants lost earlier in the day, and now the Marlins go down 2-1 to the Braves. Anibal Sanchez pitched all eight innings for the Marlins, but two runs was one too many tonight. Smoltz bent but didn't break for the Braves. He gave up nine hits and three walks in his eight innings of work, but struck out eight as well. The Marlins managed just two hits in eleven at bats with runners in scoring position.

It's a good day for Phillies fans, as they open some space between them and the rest of the pack. Philadelphia trails San Diego by one depending on the outcome of the Padres game later, and lead the Giants and Marlins by two.

The Cardinals lowered their magic number to nine with a 6-1 win over the Giants. Chris Carpenter helped his Cy Young cause, allowing just one run over seven innings while striking out nine. The bullpen pitched two hitless inning in relief as the Cardinal staff allowed just five runs over two games. The Giants are losing a terrific chance to gain on both the Padres and the Dodgers.

It's very easy today, the top five teams in the wild card race need a win.

• Cincinnati defeats Chicago.
• Florida defeats Atlanta.
• Philadelphia defeats Houston.
• San Francisco defeats St. Louis.
• San Diego defeats Los Angeles.

I'm looking for the split of the series between the Padres and the Dodgers, but that's easier if San Diego wins today. The Giants face a tough time in the Morris against Carpenter game. San Francisco needs a difference of one or three games with Los Angeles going into the final weekend in order for the two of them to tie.

Purchase ALDS tickets.

Purchase NLDS tickets.

It was a pretty good day for the massive tie scenario. Cincinnati took their game this afternoon. Tonight, the Marlins defeated the Braves 6-4. MIguel Cabrera keeps making his MVP bid as he goes 3 for 4 with a run and an RBI. Dontrelle Willis continues to pitch well down the stretch, allowing four runs in 7 1/3 innings, plus picking up a hit and a walk.

The Phillies took advantage of a bad first inning by Roger Clemens to win 4-3 over the Astros. The Astros kept Philadelphia scoreless, but Myers and the pen kept the game under control. With the Giants losing 14-4 to St. Louis, Philadelphia takes sole possession of second place in the NL Wild Card race. So three of the four teams trailing in the playoff race will move up on either San Diego or Los Angeles.

Rick Paulas provides suggestions for heckling various NL wild card candidates. He left out the Phillies, so feel free to leave suggestions in the comments.

Once again Baseball Musings presents the best outcomes for a massive tie in the National League:

• Cincinnati defeats Chicago.
• Florida defeats Atlanta.
• Philadelphia defeats Houston.
• San Francisco defeats St. Louis.
• San Diego defeats Los Angeles.

For a massive tie, it's best that San Diego and Los Angeles split the four game series while the teams immediately behind them win. However, if you're a fan of one of the teams in the chase, you want one of the two southern California teams to sweep. That helps your team up in the wild card standings.

The choice of Philadelphia over Houston was a tough one. Houston can still be part of this with huge hot streak to end the season. Philadelphia, however, is in a much better position to be part of a tie. So I'm throwing the Astros under the bus for now, as I'd rather see a four team tie than none at all. If the Astros sweep, however, they'll earn their way back in to the scenario.

I cannot find the rule that covers the following situation. LA, SD and SF tie for the division lead, but also tie for the wild card (no other teams involved). The rules for breaking two similar situations are here:

Scenario #4: If three Clubs are tied for first place in a Division (or Wild Card) with an identical winning percentage at the conclusion of the championship season and the tied Clubs do not have identical records against one another in the championship season, the tie for the Division Championship (or Wild Card) shall be broken as follows:

A lengthy exposition of the playoff ensues.

Scenario #5: If three Clubs in a League are tied with identical winning percentages at the end of the championship season and two of those tied Clubs are from the same Division and are also tied for first place in that Division and the third tied Club has the highest winning percentage among the second-place Clubs in the remaining two Divisions, the Division Champion shall first be determined by a one-game playoff on Monday, September 29. Any playoff games played to determine a Division champion shall not count in determining which Clubs are deemed tied for a Wild Card designation. Clubs that were originally tied with a Club or Clubs for a Wild Card designation shall still be considered tied.

My question is, in a three way tie for the division, where one team will be the wild card and one the division winner, is winning one game enough? Is the winner of game one automatically in the playoffs even if it loses game 2, or does it need to play a third game against the loser of game one? What if the winner of game one wins game 2? The you have two teams with 0-1 records in the division playoff, and it seems you need a third game between them to settle the WC. But if game 1 and game 2 produce different winners, I'm not sure if you really need a game three. I've called MLB, but I'm not sure if or when they'll get back to me.

This can have a huge impact on which team (A, B or C) you choose to be. Most teams would choose C if there are only two games to play, since that will provide you with less chance of losing one. But if you can guarantee a spot in the playoffs by winning game 1, you might take team A and try to win at home, especially if you match up well with that opponent at home.

It wasn't a bad day for the massive tie sceanario, but not a great day either. The NL West tie became a little more likely, but Philadelphia losing hurt the interdivisional aspect. With the Dodgers losing, the Padres are now even in the loss column, 1/2 game out. The Giants are now three games out. Since the Giants play a three game series with the Dodgers the last weekend of the season, these two teams need to be separated by 1 or 3 games going into that series to get the tie.

Still, it's not looking that good as San Diego has opened some space on the pack. They're 2 1/2 games up with a four game weekend series against the Dodgers. A split of that would help things, if the other five teams can win over the weekend. Of course, Philadelphia is playing Houston, so not every one can win.

With the Reds losing to San Diego today, it's still possible to get a six-way tie for the wild card. Here's a scenario that works:

• Houston goes 14-3, losing all three games to Cincinnati.
• Cincinnati goes 13-3, losing all three games to Florida.
• Florida goes 12-4, losing four of six to the Philadelphia.
• San Francisco goes 12-5, any combination.
• Philadelphia goes 11-6, losing four to Houston and two to the Marlins.
• San Diego goes 9-8 in any combination.

If San Diego loses more than eight games, the winning percentages for everyone else can go down.

Here are the best results for today to move us toward a massive tie for the NL Wild Card:

• Cincinnati defeats San Diego.
• Chicago defeats Los Angeles.
• San Francisco defeats Colorado.
• Philadelphia defeats Atlanta.

No ambiguity today. Wins by Minnesota and Chicago in the AL Central also helps the possibility of a three-way tie in that division.

Purchase ALDS tickets.

Purchase NLDS tickets.

Simply put, it was a bad day for the massive tie scenario. Brad Penny added his name to the list of well pitched games last night, tossing seven shutout innings against the Cubs. There would be no comeback as the Dodgers took the game 6-0. Furcal added a double and homer and scored three times.

The Giants did not keep pace, losing 9-8 to Colorado in a game that went down to the wire. Colorado scored seven in the fifth inning, the Giants four, to make the game 8-5. The Rockies took a 9-7 lead into the ninth, but a Barry Bonds solo home run was not enough. Barry's next home run ties Henry Aaron for most in the National League.

The best result of the night was the Phillies sweep of the Braves. They gained 1/2 game on both San Diego and Los Angeles. The only other positive was Houston's win, which keeps six teams within 4 1/2 games of the wild card lead.

In the AL, the White Sox gained on both the Tigers and Twins. A three-way tie remains a possibility there.

Once again, Baseball Musings presents the best outcomes to move the National League toward the massive tie scenario.

• Houston defeats St. Louis.
• Philadelphia takes two from the Atlanta.
• Florida defeats the New York.
• Cincinnati defeats San Diego.
• Chicago defeats Los Angeles.
• San Francisco defeats Colorado.

Yes, I'm throwing the Braves under the bus. There are enough teams close to the top of the race that getting Atlanta involved won't make things more complicated come October. If the above scenario plays out, the top five wild card teams will be separated by 1 1/2 games, and the Dodgers and the pack separated by just three. A three way division tie, with a five team wild card playoff would take five days to play out. Fun, fun, fun.

The Mets win last night officially eliminated the Braves from winning the NL East crown.

"What Atlanta has done between (manager) Bobby Cox and (general manager) John Schuerholz, what can you say?" Minaya said. "If there were a Nobel Prize for baseball, they would be voted a Nobel Prize for the work they've done there over the years. I like and respect what they've done and what they've accomplished. I don't think it's been done in the history of baseball."

Minaya, himself fond of player development - even if the current Mets have only a handful of homegrown players: David Wright, Jose Reyes, Aaron Heilman, Lastings Milledge and Heath Bell - labeled the Braves the blueprint for other teams, including the Mets, to follow.

"They do it right," Minaya said. "They've done it right. And they'll continue to do it right because they believe in scouting and development, and they believe in their scouts and their people. There's not enough good things for me to say about the Atlanta Braves and their front office and what they've done and what they've accomplished.

"They are the model. They are the model of success in the past 15 years."

Hear, hear! I wonder what they do now? Do they tear the team apart and start over? They may do things very differently if they want to rebuild a sustainable winner, rather than keep a streak alive.

Since the start of the 1991 season, Atlanta is 1500-1005, a .599 winning percentage, the best in baseball. A .600 winning percentage is great for a season, but over 16 years it's truly phenomenal.

It wasn't a perfect night, but a very positive night for the massive tie scenario. The Dodgers and the Padres lost, giving all the wild card teams a chance to gain. The Reds and Giants took advantage of this, while the Marlins and the Astros didn't. The Phillies, thanks to a rain out, managed to pick up 1/2 game on the leaders, also.

The Marlins loss was okay. They were second in the race so coming back to the pack doesn't hurt the scenario too much. But the Astros losing again leaves them 4 1/2 back in this race, and two behind the fifth place Reds. We're fast approaching the point to cut Houston loose from the tie scheme. Still, there are now 5 teams within 2 1/2 games of the wild card lead, so the situation is better than yesterday.

Here's the best things to happen tonight to lead to a massive tie in the NL:

• Florida defeats New York.
• Cincinnati defeats San Diego.
• Chicago defeats Los Angeles.
• Houston defeats St. Louis.
• San Francisco defeats Colorado.
• Philadelphia defeats Atlanta.

The last one is a tough one. The Braves stay on the edge of the wild card race, so a victory by Atlanta moves them closer. But to be realistic, Philadelphia is three games ahead the Braves, so they're more likely to have a chance to be involved in a tie. It won't be a disaster if Atlanta wins, but at this point, for the scenario to at least have a chance, it's better for the Phillies to stay close or move up.

And we're also getting closer to a three way tie in the AL Central. A Detroit loss coupled with Minnesota and Chicago wins makes that more likely.

There was good news and bad news from the massive tie front last night. The bad news was that Houston and Atlanta lost. The good news is that they were on the edge of the race, and the team in the heart of it, the Marlins, won big. We still have five teams separated by less than four games in the wild card race, and a big series between San Diego and Cincinnati starting tonight.

The Twins and White Sox each gained 1/2 game on the idle Tigers last night. Carlos Silva's second excellent outing and an outburst of offense gave the Twins an easy 9-4 win over the Athletics. Silva made it through seven innings without illness, allowing just five hits and one walk. The only run came on a Frank Thomas home run, giving him a six game home run streak. After hitting no more than seven in any month this season, The Big Hurt hit eight so far in September. Cuddyer starred with the bat for the Twins, picking up a double, a homer and four RBI. Joe Nathan pitched a particularly bad 1 1/3 innings for him. He picked up the save, coming in to get the last out of the 8th, but loaded the bases in the ninth on walks before retiring the side.

John Lackey gave up four hits over eight innings to the White Sox Monday night, but three of those hits came in the top of the fifth inning and led to three runs. That's all the White Sox needed as Jose Contreras spread out his six hits allowed to give up just one run over his eight innings of work. Both pitchers struck out 8 as the White Sox won 3-2. In his last 16 innings, Contreras walked 2, struck out 17 and allowed just two runs.

The Twins are now just 1 1/2 games behind the Tigers, with the White Sox three out. The White Sox also pushed the surging Angels another game back in the wild card race. Maybe we'll end up with a three way tie in the AL Central!

Here's the results to look for to help along the massive tie scenario:

• Atlanta defeats Chicago (might as well bring the Braves back into the fold).
• Florida defeats New York.
• Houston defeats St. Louis. A sweep by the Astros could bring back the double division tie scenario.

With the Padres and Dodgers idle, the wild card teams have a chance to gain 1/2 game on each tonight. If the Braves win, seven teams will be no more than 4 1/2 games back in the wild card race.

I'll also note that wins by the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins enhance the chance of a three-way tie in the AL Central.

The Padres win 10-2 to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Giants. The usually weak Padres offense pounded out 17 hits, 8 for extra bases and stay close to the Dodgers. Florida, Philadelphia and San Francisco are now tied for second place in the wild card race, 2 1/2 games behind San Diego.

It wasn't a great day for the massive tie. San Diego and Los Angeles won, keeping anyone from gaining on the leaders. But Florida, and Cincinnati won, so the teams in back (with the exception of Houston) kept pace. Three weeks to go, with the Astros/Cardinals and Padres/Reds being the big series early in the week.

The Twins pound the Tigers, winning 12-1 and taking 3 of 4 in the series. It was a very good weekend for the Twins, as they gain two games on the division lead and extend their wild card lead by one. After appearing to break their offensive slump in the first two games by scoring 12 runs, the Tigers manage just two runs all weekend.

In Tigers favor, the schedule is good for them the rest of the way. They play three games against Chicago, otherwise they don't face a pennant contender. And while Detroit finishes with Kansas City, the Twins and White Sox play three that weekend against each other.

Update: There's also good news on Francisco Liriano.

Here's a look at what the best outcomes are today to help to a massive tie in the National League:

• New York defeats Los Angeles.
• Florida defeats Philadelphia.
• Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh
• Houston defeats Milwaukee
• San Francisco defeats San Diego

It's the same as yesterday. As the season winds down, it's important to get teams as close together as possible. Four or fives teams need to be no more than a game apart on the last day of the season. The sooner they get close, the more likely that can happen. And again, it won't hurt if Atlanta wins and Arizona defeats St. Louis.

Saturday was a very good day for the massive tie scenario. The only negative on the day was the Reds loss to the Pirates.

The Astros used the long ball against the Brewers as the first four Milwaukee pitchers allowed home runs. Lance Berkman hit two and drove in four to help Houston to a 10-4 win. Lance is now 10 for 26 in September with nine RBI in seven games. The fate of the Astros is so often linked to his hitting, and so far he's having a big month. That win puts the Astros ahead of the Reds in the division and the wild card race by 1/2 game.

There was even good new for the teams not really in contention. The Braves won, and are back to five out in the wild card. The Diamondbacks defeated the Cardinals, so Houston trails in the Central by five games. Another day like this and we might need to bring Atlanta and St. Louis back into the picture.

Bleed Cubbie Blue thinks a massive tie would be fun, also.

Here's a look at what the best outcomes are today to help to a massive tie in the National League:

• New York defeats Los Angeles.
• Florida defeats Philadelphia.
• Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh
• Houston defeats Milwaukee
• San Francisco defeats San Diego

It's the same as yesterday. The Marlins really need a win to keep pace with Philadelphia. On the other hand, a Philly win makes at least a two way tie for the wild card more possible, which still gives us an extra game.

With Minnesota and Chicago staying in sync (both won last night), we could also see a playoff game in the AL.

It was a very good day for the massive tie scenario on Friday.

• The Giants defeated the Padres.
• The Astros won.
• The Reds won.

On the minus side:

• The Dodgers won.
• The Phillies defeated the Marlins

Philadelphia's win over Florida isn't so bad. It keeps the wild card race close, and Florida can still split the four-game series. So today, six teams are separated by four games in the wild card race, and the Padres trail the Dodgers by just a game and a half.

Here's a look at what the best outcomes are today to help to a massive tie in the National League:

• New York defeats Los Angeles.
• Florida defeats Philadelphia.
• Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh
• Houston defeats Milwaukee
• San Francisco defeats San Diego

It wouldn't hurt if Arizona and Atlanta won while St. Louis lost, but it's a long shot that any of those teams will be involved in a tie.

The Dodgers lost yesterday, which was the best thing that could happen yesterday to move us toward the massive tie scenario. The Cardinals winning, however, is making a tie for the NL Central seem very unlikely right now. So I'm taking the Cardinals out of the group. Unless they go on a losing streak and Cincinnati or Houston closes, we'll concentrate on the West and the Wild Card from now on.

Some one brought up the possibility of a massive tie in the AL as well, or at least a three way tie in the AL Central. I think that's less likely after last night's results, but if Indians and Tigers do damage to the White Sox and Twins over the weekend, the AL wild card might get interesting again. Boston is playing the Royals this weekend, and the Angels are on a hot streak. We'll see if there is a chance for a three or four way tie for the wild card in the AL Monday morning.

Here's a look at what the best outcomes are today to help to a massive tie in the National League:

• Arizona defeats St. Louis.
• New York defeats Los Angeles.
• Either Philadelphia or Florida wins.

The Padres and the Giants start a three game series tomorrow. A sweep by the Giants and a Philadelphia/Florida split would go a long way toward a wild card tie. If the Mets can take at least three from the Dodgers, that makes things even better.

I want to note that I'm not rooting for or against a particular team. Right now, if I had to make a choice, I'd root for the Marlins to win because they're the best story. But a big tie would be even better.

Whenever a team gets a big lead in a division race, someone demonstrates how tough it will be for them to lose by showing how many wins their opponents need if the team plays just .500 ball. It's a good comparison, because a team that is far ahead of its competition is probably not a .500 team.

But sometimes you don't play .500 ball. Sometimes you play a lot worse. That's what happened to the Tigers. On the morning of August 8th, the Tigers awoke from a win against the Twins 40 games over .500 at 76-36, a .679 winning percentage. The chance of a .679 team winning at least 25 of their last 50 games is .9972. The Twins would need to win 36 of 51 to tie if that happened, the White Sox 36 of 52.

Instead, the Tigers are 9-19 since that date, a .321 winning percentage. That's tied with the Cubs and Rockies for worst record in the majors over the last month. It's a record so bad that Chicago at 15-14 and the Twins at 15-12 are back in the race. Four and 4 1/2 games out of first place. The Tigers have four games with the Twins (starting tonight) and three with the White Sox. What looked like a sure thing a month ago is now a race once again.

The Tigers offense disappeared. They've scored just 101 runs, 3.6 per game. They're hitting .246, and that's their strong suit. The team OBA is just .294 with a measly .386 slugging percentage. The chance of a .679 team winning no more than 9 games in a 28 game stretch is .0012, so something radical changed. An okay offense got bad.

Correction: I've change the penultimate sentence to start, "The chance of a .679 team winning no more than 9 games in a 28 game stretch is .0012," which is what I actually calculated.

It wasn't a great night for the massive tie scenario. Four pitching duels provided mixed results. The Sanchez no hitter was a positive. The Astros defeated the Phillies 5-3, which also was a positive. Andy Pettitte and Randy Wolf battled each other even for six innings. But the Phillies bullpen was roughed up again as Madson loaded the bases in the the ninth and Lance Berkman hits his second double of the game. It cleared the bases and Lidge allowed an unearned run in the bottom of the ninth to put Houston on top 5-3.

The teams at the top didn't help much, however. Lowe and Capuano battled for eight innings each with Lowe coming out on top 2-1. The two pitchers combined to allow just eight hits. Balls were put in play as they only combined to strike out four.

The Padres kept pace as Jennings and Hensely each pitched seven shutout innings. They combined to allow just six hits while striking out 14. The bullpens then pitched three more scoreless inning, with Colorado not allowing a hit. But in the bottom of the eleventh, pinch hitter Paul McAnulty picked an opportune time for his first major league home run, a two run shot off Nate Field to give the Padres five wins in a row.

The Padres win extends their wild card lead to three. While we now have five teams between 3 and 5 games behind San Diego, there is some breathing room for the Padres. The way the west has gone this season, however, I guess it's the Padres turn for a winning streak.

The Minnesota Twins waste a great outing by Carlos Silva and a chance to move 3 1/2 games behind the Tigers. Leading 2-0 in the seventh, they bring in Pat Neshek. Silva only threw 59 pitches at that point and had allowed one hit. But it was likely the right move, as Silva's been horrible this season and Neshek was nearly unhittable this season. But Pat had a bad night, giving up three hits including back-to-back homers to Norton and Wigginton to give the Rays a 3-2 lead. Six of the sixteen hits Pat's allowed this year left the ballpark. Tampa Bay adds another run in the 8th and the Twins lose 4-2.

A win would allow Minnesota to sweep the Tigers for the AL Central lead. Now, the Tigers know they'll come out of the weekend still in first place. Chicago, with an 8-1 win over Boston, is back to 1/2 game out in the wild card race.

The Rangers took the lead but couldn't complete the sweep as the Athletics take game three of the series 9-6. That puts Texas 9 back, and Oakland's magic number to eliminate them drops to 14.

The Angels kept pace, however. Izturis picked up three hits, including a triple and scored three runs as the Angels downed the Orioles 8-4 for their fifth straight win. That leaves them 5 1/2 games behind Oakland. The two western rivals play seven times in the last ten games. LAnaheim should send Texas a thank you for bringing Oakland back to the pack a bit.

Here's a look at what the best outcomes are today to help to a massive tie in the National League:

• Washington defeats St. Louis.
• Florida defeats the Arizona.
• Milwaukee defeats Los Angeles.
• Houston defeats Philadelphia.
• Atlanta sweeps a double header from New York.
• Colorado defeats San Diego.
• San Francisco defeats Cincinnati.

This last game, again, is the toughest choice. Given that the two are even in the standings, I'll move this in favor of the Giants as a win makes the NL West tighter, and a three way tie in the NL West goes a long way toward the ultimate massive tie. If the above happens, we'll have seven teams within four games of the wild card lead, and three teams within 3 1/2 games of the Western Division lead.

Seedings in a three-way tie between the Dodgers, Padres and Giants are based on head-to-head records. The Dodgers are 13-17 vs. the Padres and Giants, the Padres are 17-13 vs. the Dodgers and Giants, and the Giants are 16-16 vs. the Padres and Dodgers. The way a three way tiebreaker works is that the Padres would likely only play the second game (on the road), the Giants would get home field for the first game, and the Dodgers would get home field in the second game if they win the first one. The Padres, with the best record get to choose playing two games, both at home, or waiting for game two and playing it on the road. I assume most teams would take option two. San Diego has a better record on the road this season, so a day off would appear to be the best bet for them.

It wasn't a good day at all for the massive tie scenario. The only positives were the Dodgers losing and the Reds winning. And while the Padres gained on the Dodgers, a tie between two teams in the NL West doesn't do much good if one will be the wild card anyway. The team with the best head-to-head record gets the division. Where's the fun in that! Teams need to close some ground on both the Padres and Dodgers now.

Here's a look at what the best outcomes are today to help to a massive tie in the National League:

• Washington defeats St. Louis.
• Florida defeats the Arizona.
• Milwaukee defeats Los Angeles.
• Houston defeats Philadelphia.
• Atlanta defeats New York.
• Colorado defeats San Diego.
• Cincinnati defeats San Francisco

This last game, again, is the toughest choice. The Giants winning makes the big division tie more likely, but a Cincinnati win keeps more teams close in the wild card. I'm going with the Reds today to keep as many teams close to the wild card lead as possible.

Also note that since the Marlins finish with three games against the Phillies, the Giants with three games against the Dodgers, and the Astros with three games against the Braves, those teams need to be separated by 1 or three games going into the final weekend to get a tie.

Here's how yesterday's massive tie scenario worked out:

• Positives
• St. Louis lost.
• Florida won.
• Los Angeles lost.
• Atlanta won.
• Negatives
• Philadelphia won.
• San Diego won.

The negatives weren't too bad. San Diego moves closer to a tie with Los Angeles for the division lead, but Houston loses ground in the wild card race. Still, there are seven teams in the NL Wild Card race, none more than five games back.

Here's a look at what the best outcomes are today to help to a massive tie in the National League:

Washington defeats St. Louis.
Florida defeats the Arizona (I'm considering the Diamondbacks out of it at this point).
Milwaukee defeats Los Angeles
Houston defeats Philadelphia.
Atlanta defeats New York.
Colorado defeats San Diego.

San Francisco at Cincinnati offers a tough choice. Both are 2 1/2 games out of the wild card, but the Giants are closer to a division tie than the Reds. In order to get the kind of week-long playoff contest I'd like to see, we at least need a three way tie for one division, with the teams also tied for the wild card. That would force a two day playoff for the division, then a playoff for the wild card. If a team from another division also finishes with the same record, then you get a two-day wild card playoff. So San Francisco winning makes the three way division tie more likely. So I'll so with a Giants win in this game, but my guess is it doesn't matter that much.

The Braves score two in the top of the 11th to take a 3-1 victory over the Phillies, earning a split of the double header and the four game series. So let's see how the teams did in the quest for the massive tie.

On the plus side:
Colorado defeated LA
The Braves and Phillies split.
The Marlins won.
The Giants won.
The Astros won.

On the negative side:

The Cardinals won.
The Padres beat the Reds.
The Diamondbacks lost.

So we finish the day with San Diego owning a 1 1/2 game lead in the wild card race, but five teams no more than 2 1/2 games out, and seven teams no more than five out. The Padres also moved a game closer to the Dodgers, with three games separating those two teams now. St. Louis pulled ahead, however, lessening the chance for two division ties.

For the third day in a row, the White Sox and Twins reached the same result, leaving the AL Wild Card race in the same state, Chicago leading Minnesota by 1/2 game. The White Sox lost 7-3 to the Royals, while the Twins fell 10-1 to the Yankees. The two teams are 6-5 since August 23. Since the start of August, the Twins are 17-14, the White Sox 17-15. It looks like these opponents are going down to the wire.

I thought I'd start a new daily feature, reviewing the best outcomes for a day's games so that the NL results in some kind of massive tie. So:

Pittsburgh defeats St. Louis.
Colorado defeats Los Angeles.
Cincinnati defeats San Deigo.
The Braves and the Phillies split their double header.
The Marlins defeat Milwaukee.
The Giants defeat the Cubs.
The Diamondbacks defeat the Nationals.

That would make both division leaders four games up, and put five teams within 1 1/2 games of the wild card, eight teams four games back or less.

The Yankees lost to the Twins today, 6-1 in a game shortened to eight innings by rain. Despite their five game sweep of the Red Sox, the Yankees are not playing lights out baseball. Their big lead in the division is due more to Boston and Toronto not taking advantage of a middling stretch by New York. Starting August fifth, the Yankees are 15-13. Nothing wrong with that record, but it's nothing that you would think could cause a team to take a big lead. But Boston put up an 8-20 record in that time (worst in the AL), losing seven game to New York. The Blue Jays are 13-14. It's not that the Yankees are running away with the division, it's just that no one else can keep up.

The NL Division races are looking more and more complete as the Cardinals and the Dodgers keep on winning. Chris Carpenter easily beat the Pirates 3-1 last night for his third complete game, allowing three hits while striking out eight. That keeps the St. Louis lead at 8. The Dodgers extended their lead to 4 with a 6-3 win over Colorado, currently number 9 in the wild card race and fading fast. Wilson Betemit keeps supplying power, picking up a double and homer. He's slugging .554 since his arrival in Los Angeles.

But the wild card keeps getting better. The Cincinnati Reds needed a win last night and Bronson Arroyo kept the ball in the park as they defeated San Diego 6-2. Rich Aurilia collected four hits, including his 20th home run of the season. The win also moved Philadelphia, Atlanta and Arizona 1/2 game up, since all were rained out. The Reds and Phillies are both 1/2 game behind the Padres, although the Phillies are even with San Diego in the All Freaking Import Loss Column (AFILC) while the Reds are even in the totally meaningless win column.

The other big beneficiary of the Cincinnati win was the Florida Marlins. Anibal Sanchez out-dueled Chris Capuano for a 3-2 Marlins victory. Both pitchers went seven innings, allowed five hits, struck out seven, but the Brewers could only push across one run in that time while the Marlins picked up three. Capuano made a mistake to Cody Ross which resulted in a two run homer that broke a 1-1 tie in the seventh. Florida vaults from sixth to fourth in the race again, two games back.

So as things stand this morning, six teams are 2 1/2 back or less in the wild card race, and eight teams are four games out or better. I'm still hoping for a massive tie at the end of the season.

My thoughts on parity and the National League are in a guest column at Baseball Analysts.

Earlier today ArmchairGM provided graphs of AL odds for making the playoffs, and tonight they do the same for the NL.

There's a nice article at ArmchairGM graphing the odds of making the playoffs for various AL teams. The Yankees vs. Red Sox chart is quite stunning.

The Oakland Athletics extended both their lead in the AL West and the Yankees lead in the AL East with a 2-1 win over the Red Sox. Without Ortiz and Ramirez, there's not much pop in the Red Sox offense as they've scored one run in the last 18 innings. The good news is Beckett pitched a decent game, keeping the ball in the park for seven innings.

Meanwhile, the Mariners teed off on Jered Weaver as Jarrod Washburn picked up a win vs. his former team, the Angels. Weaver allowed four home runs after allowing five in his previous 13 starts. Chris Snelling hit two, raising his slugging percentage to .727 in 33 at bats.

In the National League, Cincinnati fell out of the wild card lead as the two bullpens combined for nine scoreless innings, shutting both offenses down from the seventh through the fifteenth inning. Ramon Martinez hits a home run every 60 at bats. and last night was one of them. He hit the first pitch from Ryan Franklin out of the park for the Dodger win, putting the team eight games over .500. Meanwhile, San Diego picked up eleven strikeouts in seven innings from Chris Young in an 8-3 win over the Diamondbacks. That puts the Padres in control of the NL Wild Card for the moment. Two games separate the top five teams, 5 1/2 separate the top ten.

The Marlins dominated the Cardinals tonight, taking the game 9-1, extending their winning streak to nine. The hitters picked up a triple-triple, as Ramirez, Uggla and Helms each picked up three hits. With the Giants' 13-8 loss, Florida moves past San Francisco for fourth place in the wild card race. Every day they seem to pass another team.

The National League Wild Card race became even closer yesterday as the top three teams in the running lost, and the fifth and six teams won. The Dodgers took a 6-1 lead into the eighth inning despite a poor outing by Brad Penny. The Reds couldn't turn nine base runners in five innings into anything more than one run. But Cincinnati came to life in the eighth scoring four runs off Dessens and Tomko before Jon Broxton came in to record the final three outs, three of them on strikeouts. The Dodgers win 6-5, extending Cincinnati's losing streak to four.

But the Reds remain in first place in the wild card as San Diego falls to Arizona 7-4. Brandon Webb picked up his 14th win despite walking more batters (4) than he struck out (3). Eric Byrnes batted cleanup proceeded to do just that, knocking out two doubles and a home run, driving in four. He's 6 for 10 with four extra-base hits in the #4 slot this season. The Padres fall three games behind the Dodgers in the division race.

With the Marlins win and the Phillies loss earlier in the day, the top six wild card teams are separated by 2 1/2 games, with none of the teams tied. Colorado, team #10, is just five games out. Maybe we'll finally get to see a multi-team, multi-day playoff!

With Cincinnati, San Diego and Arizona losing today, the NL Wild Card race is tighter than ever. Ten teams are within 5 1/2 games of the top spot. The Marlins are climbing the fastest with their seven game win streak, while the Giants are just two back after taking six of seven against Arizona and Cincinnati. The Dodgers are up 2 in the West, while a Cardinals victory over the Cubs tonight will put them in the lead by three.

Frankly, I don't know who to like down the stretch. All of the teams are flawed. Atlanta and the Phillies have great offenses, but their pitching is second rate. San Diego and Colorado can pitch, but their offenses leave a lot of be desired. The Marlins are right in the middle of the back in allowing and scoring runs. A big factor could be Jake Peavy, but his performance today doesn't make me think he'll be invincible down the stretch. Can Luis Gonzalez hit 15 home runs down the stretch for Arizona? Can Alou or Bonds turn it on in September? Will John Smoltz's resurgence be enough for Atlanta? I just don't see where any of these teams has a players who can play better to carry them to the playoffs. It may very well be decided by the team with the most lucky hops down the stretch.

So I invite the fans of the ten wild card teams to tell me why you're team can play better than it has all year. Who is the under-performing star, who is the the September call up that will carry your club to the playoffs?

It was a good night for the San Diego Padres. Clay Hensley continues to excel in August with seven one run innings. His ERA for the month stands at 1.82, and he hasn't allowed a home run in 29 2/3 innings. The offense was selective, working seven walks off Jason Jennings, a pitcher with good control. All combined, they took a 5-2 victory over the Colorado Rockies.

The even better new is that the three closest teams in the wild card race all lost. Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Arizona each lost a game to the Padres in the race. That puts San Diego 1/2 game behind the Reds. The one thing San Diego might have wanted to go differently was the Arizona loss. Since that came at the hands of the Dodgers. So San Diego remains one game back in the West and well positioned for two shots at the playoffs.

I went to bed to early last night as the Twins/White Sox game ended with much excitement. Chicago closed to within one in the 8th, but Minnesota scored a single run in the ninth for some insurance. That set up the usually good old reliable Nathan, who posted saves in 27 of his previous 28 tries. This time, however, he gave up two hits, a single and a two-run homer to the hot Jermaine Dye. That sent the game into extra innings.

In the top of the eleventh, the Twins put the lead runner on and then played small ball. Bartlett bunted, Castillo advanced the runner to third with a ground out and Punto brought him home with an infield single. Scott Eyre pitched two scoreless innings for the win, getting Iguchi to end the game with a GDP to prevent the heart of the White Sox order from batting again. The Twins win 8-7.

Meanwhile, Detroit loses to the resurgent Cleveland Indians 8-5. Rookie of the year candidate did not help his cause, nor his chance of leading the league in ERA, allowing 8 runs in 4 2/3 innings. The Tigers are now 11-14 on the month; despite last night, the pitchers are doing well, posting a .384 ERA. But the offense is having its worst month of the year posting it's lowest OBA and slugging percentage, and scoring 4.0 runs a game. Slumps by Ordonez, Inge and I-Rod are pulling the team down.

The real problem for Detroit is that teams in pursuit of them are playing very well. The Twins are 15-9, not only taking a 1 1/2 game lead in the wild card but closing to four games in the division. The Yankees are 15-11and are within striking distance of home field advantage. Most interesting, however are the Oakland Athletics, 18-5 in the month and now just 2 1/2 games behind the Yankees for home field in the first round. The A's are pitching great (3.55 ERA) and hitting great (5.3 runs per game) and are looking like a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. They won't top their 24-4 August of 2002, but right now it's their second best record in the month over the last seven years, in which time they have the best record in the month.

With the Reds and Padres losing last night, the Phillies took a 4-3 victory over the Mets to move into a tie for second place in the NL Wild Card race. They're now just 1 1/2 games behind Cincinnati. Ryan Howard delivered his 45th homer of the season to give Philadelphia a 4-0 lead in the third. Randy Wolf gave three of those back over the next three innings, but the Phillies bullpen pitched four 2-hit innings to preserve the win.

The Phillies are now 15-8 in August, the third best record in NL in the month and three games better than the next closest wild card contender, Cincinnati.

Carlos Beltran, with a double and a homer, solidified his MVP credentials. He now has 71 extra-base hits on the season, second in the NL behind Soriano.

The Twins took over the Wild Card lead in the American League last night with a tight 5-4 win over the White Sox. Chicago jumped out to an early 3-0 lead and knocked Brad Radke out of the game after two innings. The Minnesota bullpen responed with seven one-run innings, striking out seven and walking one. That allowed the Twins to mount a comeback in the sixth as Punto and Hunter homered for four runs, Torii delivering a three run blast. Bartlett delivered a two-out single in the ninth to put the Twins up 5-4.

The game ended on an unusual play:

As Twins first baseman Justin Morneau tried to make the catch, a fan reached over and interfered and the ball was knocked out of Morneau's glove. But first base umpire Andy Fletcher called Dye out to end the game.

"The fan definitely reached over into fair play and interfered with the fielder's opportunity to make the catch," Fletcher said. "He got in his way. I believe he would have made the catch had the fan not have been there."

Guillen didn't even argue.

"I wasn't going to waste my time when half the guy's body was on the field," Guillen said. "It was a good call."

You can't blame the fan for trying. Umpires have missed that call in the past. The win puts Minnesota ahead in the season series 7-6.

Correction 8/28/2006: I read the record incorrectly. The Twins were 9-6 against Chicago after this win. With the loss Sunday, they are now 9-7 on the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

August 25, 2006

NL Central Roundup
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The Mets completed their sweep of the Cardinals yesterday with a 6-2 victory. The St. Louis starting pitching in the series was simply awful. The allowed four home runs and ten walks in 14 innings (that's less than five per start) leading to nineteen runs scored. If they make the playoffs, they're likely to meet a team with a good offense. How is this staff going to hold up against that? They can't pitch Chris Carpenter every day.

Meanwhile, in San Francisco, the Eric Milton allowed three runs on two homers, but the revamped Reds bullpen held as five pitchers managed to get seven outs, allowing the offense to score late and take the game 6-3. Edwin Encarnacion continued his great season with three hits and three RBI, and David Ross score and drove in the go-ahead run with an eighth inning solo homer of Chulk.

St. Louis is still in first place by virtue of playing two fewer games, but only .001 separate the two teams in the standings. San Diego and Philadelphia are within striking distance of both teams. Outside of the NL East, it's going to be a fun last month of the season in the NL. Maybe we can finally get a multiple tie scenario; LA, SD, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Cincinnati all finish with the same record. Then we'd have a one-game playoff for each division, with the losers going into a three way playoff for the wild card!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

August 24, 2006

Mission Accomplished
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The Padres completed their sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers last night, putting them one game back in both the NL West and the NL Wild Card races. San Diego's pitching sent the mighty Dodgers offense into a funk once again, as the Padres outscored the boys in blue 12-4.

The Padres are the latest NL West team to try a winning streak, as they've taken five of their last six from Arizona and Los Angeles, beating their nearest competition in the division. The starters have a 2.36 ERA over this stretch, and only allowed two home runs (that includes Chris Young's one inning start).

The Giants are making a similar run, 8-2 over their last 10, but are coming from much farther back. But they're tied for third, four games out of the race. This is the wildest, toughest to call race I've seen in years.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)

August 22, 2006

Tigers Not Tanking
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Kenny Rogers revived his stuff tonight as he shutout the White Sox for seven innings. Fernando Rodney finished off the White Sox as the two combined on a five hit, 4-0 Detroit victory. Marcus Thames contributed a triple and homer. That raises his slugging percentage to .582.

Meanwhile, the Twins lost to the Orioles 6-3. It was a big night for Nick Markakis as he hit three solo homers to bring his total for the season to 11. Carlos Silva allowed five in total, giving him 30 allowed on the season. That puts him second to Josh Beckett in home runs allowed.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

The Massacres
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Ron Guidry sums up the difference between the 1978 and 2006 Boston Massacres:

Ron Guidry and Reggie Jackson played on the 1978 Yankee team that won four straight at the Fens from Sept.7-10. Standing at his locker after yesterday's game, Guidry admitted this weekend's success had stirred some memories.

"I'd be lying if I said it didn't remind me of '78," the pitching coach said. "Reggie's here, (head trainer Gene) Monahan's here and I think we're the only ones who were there. The other one was a little different in that we were four out and we had to play that well."

That series in 1978 didn't win the Yankees the division, but it made the win possible. This series made a division win by the Red Sox unlikely.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:44 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

August 18, 2006

Tighter West
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The Oakland Athletics do indeed get swept by the Royals. With the Rangers win over the Tigers, they gain 1 1/2 games. The Angels lead Seattle 3-0 in the seventh behind another strong outing by Jered Weaver. He's allowed just two hits and one walk through six innings.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Of Course They Matter!
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Tony Massoratti pens a poor column this year on how the Yankees/Red Sox series matters more this year because of the wild card race:

They play 19 games a year, every year, and we treat each unfolding drama as if it were the work of William Shakespeare. Then the dust settles and the air clears, and in the aftermath, we come to a stunning conclusion. It was much ado about nothing. Now the New York Yankees are here again, for five games in 75 hours on four late-summer days, and a funny thing has happened on the way to October: The games actually mean something this time. The Red Sox are two out in the loss column with 43 games to play, and for the first time in a long time, the boys appear to be operating without a net.

There is no wild card to fall back on, it seems.

Does he forget that last season, Cleveland was in the race until the end? Even with Cleveland self-destructing in the last week, the two teams went into the final weekend with the possibility of not making the playoffs. For that matter, if either team managed to win 13 games in the head-to-head race, the other doesn't make the post season. So yes, the games matter, just as they've mattered for the last three years.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:00 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

August 17, 2006

121
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With the NL West games over for today, all five teams are at 121 games played. San Francisco and Colorado walk away with victories this afternoon, both by the score of 8-4. That puts Arizona in second place, three games back of the Dodgers, with SD, Colorado and San Francisco 4, 5 and 6 games back. With 41 games left, it's still anybody's race.

The best mark against the division belongs to Arizona at 27-20. The Giants and Rockies, the teams farthest out, both play the fewest remaining games in the west, making it tougher for them to gain ground directly. The Diamondbacks play six more against the Dodgers, the Padres seven more, the Rockies six more and the Giants six more, so each team has enough games left against the division leader to make a difference.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:01 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

August 16, 2006

AL East Gets Closer
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The Red Sox and Tigers traded leads, but Boston came out on top 6-4 as Coco Crisp doubled in the winning run in the bottom of the sixth. Jon Papelbon threw six pitches, all strikes to retire the Tigers in order in the 9th and pick up his 32nd save.

The Yankees didn't have the comeback in them tonight as Baltimore made three early runs hold up as they defeat New York 3-2. That closes the AL East race to two games. The Yankees play tomorrow, while the Red Sox take the day off before the two teams open a five game series with a double header in Boston on Friday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

August 14, 2006

Two Game Lead
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The Red Sox fall to Detroit 7-4 while the Yankees take the Angels 7-2. That extends the Yankees lead to two games, three in the loss column. They start a five game series with a double header on Friday.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

August 13, 2006

Setting Up for a Show Down
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It's going to be quite exciting for the next week and a half as we had the AL Central, NL Central and AL East all tighten up this weekend, with 1-2 in each division having a head-to-head series coming up. The Yankees lost to the Angels this afternoon as LAnaheim had no problem turning balls in play against Chien-Ming Wang into hits. Of the 24 balls in play against Wang today, 13 went for hits. The Angels seem to find the holes against the Yankees defense. Weaver had no problem with the Yankees offense, allowing just one run over six innings while striking out eight. Despite last second homers by A-Rod and Giambi, the Angels got Weaver his 8th win with no losses by a final of 5-3.

Meanwhile, Baltimore and Boston knocked out a total of 20 runs as the Red Sox took an 11-9 win. Boston would get out to a lead, and Baltimore kept battling back. The game ended with Papelbon walking two to load the bases, then getting Mora to ground to third to end the game. Manny Ramirez went 0-3 to end his hitting streak.

One game now separates the long time rivals. The two play a five game series next weekend in Boston. That will test the stamina of both teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:23 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Which Reds Will Win?
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The Cincinnati Reds scored seven runs today and the St. Louis Cardinals allowed seven runs as the the primary colors closed another game on the birds. The distance between the two teams was cut to 1 1/2 games as the Reds blow a 5-1 lead but win the game in extra innings. Light hitting Juan Castro, playing short on a double switch knocks out a double in the eleventh to plate the eventual winning run. Milton gave up a homer to Ryan Howard, his 41st of the season. The Phillies are now 22-14 when Howard homers.

The Cardinals were never really in the game against the Pirates. Although St. Louis out-hit and out-walked Pittsburgh, the Pirates out slugged them, collecting two double and two homers to win 7-0. The Redbirds managed just three runs in the three game series against the lowly Pirates.

It's tough to make a call in this race. The Cardinals offense looks weak at the moment. the Reds have plenty of offense, but their pitching staff can make a high scoring game close. The teams open a three game series in St. Louis tomorrow to help decide the question.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:08 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

AL Central Interesting Again
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The White Sox completed a sweep of the Tigers today, taking game three of the series by a score of 7-3. That puts the White Sox 5 1/2 back with 46 games to go. It's not going to be easy for either team down the stretch as they both play plenty of opponents in contention in all three divisions. However, the White Sox get the Royals next while Detroit moves on to Boston. Chicago has a chance to gain more ground before a four game series in Detroit starting 8/21.

The Tigers offense is in a bit of a tail spin, only scoring 33 runs in their last nine games. Outside of Monroe and Guillen, the team is just not getting on base enough. Are they tiring? They still have a substantial lead, but Leyland needs to have them fresh when they face the White Sox again in a week. They missed an opportunity to put the division away this weekend. The Tigers shouldn't let that happen again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:42 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

August 12, 2006

Three Games, One Run
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The Toronto Blue Jays shutout the Minnesota Twins for the second time in this four game series. In the three games played so far, Blue Jays pitchers held the Twins offense to just one run. After losing seven in a row, the Jays are 6-1 since. They remain seven games back in both the wild card and division races. The Jays have held the Twins to just 1 hit in 16 at bats with men in scoring position in the series, while going 7 for 18 themselves.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:52 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

White Sox Creeping Up
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The White Sox picked up another win today, take the Detroit Tigers 4-3. That cuts Detroit's lead in the Central to 6 1/2 games and assures the White Sox they'll be in first place in the wild card for another day.

Chicago's dominated the Tigers in their head-to-head meetings this season, going 8-3 so far. They've outscored the Tigers 51-38 in the 11 games, mostly based on power and timeliness. The White Sox out slugged the Tigers by 50 points, plus they've hit about 100 points better with runners in scoring position. They have 8 games left with Detroit, and without some help from other teams they're going to need to win close to all of them if they want to take the division. Given their better record in Chicago, they can use the home field advantage.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

August 11, 2006

AL East Gets Closer
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David Wells pitches a strong seven innings and Cory Lidle last only four as the Red Sox pick up a game on the Yankees. The Boston offense was as good as the pitching tonight, picking up nine runs on eleven hits. Manny Ramirez extended his hit streak to 26 games with two safties tonight as the Red Sox win 9-2.

Cory Lidle gave up three runs on two homers, and Ponson allowed three more runs as the Angels take a 7-4 win from the Yankees. The 1-2-3 hitters in the Angels order combined to go seven for 14 with four runs and five RBI. The Red Sox are now just two games behind the Yankees in the AL East race.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:31 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Dodgers in First
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The Los Angeles Dodgers wake up in first place this morning, 1/2 game ahead of the Diamonbacks and Padres. Power and speed won the game in the late innings. Andre Ethier homered in the bottom of the eighth to put LA on top 3-2, but Saito blew the save and allowed the Rockies to tie the game in the ninth. Jose Mesa, however, gave up a walk and two singles to Lugo, Fucal and Lofton giving Kenny the walk-off single and the Dodgers the win.

It's just amazing how horrible streaks don't eliminate teams from this division. The Dodgers recent went 1-13 and couldn't buy a run. Since they're 12-1 and the pitching is shutting down the opposition. The DBacks went on a 3-20 slide in June. They're 21-12 since and right in the thick of the race.

The Padres don't go into extended slumps, but they've had four losing streaks of at least four games, and they may make it five tonight. I guess it's just a matter of time until the Giants come back from their 3-13 slide to take the title.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:48 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Staying In the Race
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The Toronto Blue Jays stayed in the AL Wild Card race last night by shutting down the Minnesota Twins 5-0. The Twins came into the game with one of the hottest offenses in baseball, hitting .322 since the All-Star break. They came down a bit as Ted Lilly and two relievers held their opponent to just four hits, all singles. Brandon League continues to impress out of the bullpen. He pitched two scoreless innings and now has 13 strikeouts while walking just three.

The win puts the Blue Jays seven games back in the Wild Card race, while the loss drops the Twins to second place. Chicago picked up an unearned win as Alex Rodriguez and Melky Cabrera commit errors in a four run second inning to help the White Sox to a 5-4 win over the Yankees. Cabrera made up for his miscue with a homer later in the game, while Alex went 0 for 4. Javier Vazquez allowed 12 base runners (six hits, six walks) in five innings, but the Yankees only managed two runs against him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:20 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

August 05, 2006

The Series that Decides the West
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The AL West race appears to come down to the Athletics/Mariners season series:

If the A's didn't get to play the Seattle Mariners, they likely wouldn't be looking down at the rest of the American League West. And if the Mariners didn't have to play the A's, they likely wouldn't be looking up at everybody else.

The A's continued their season-long dominance of Seattle with a 5-2 win Friday night in front of 44,277 at Safeco Field. The A's now are 10-1 against the Mariners this season; they've won 10 in a row after dropping the first game. They are 48-50 against all other opponents.

The A's lead in the ever-changing AL West is 21/2 games over the Texas Rangers, who moved into second place with their win over the Los Angeles Angels.

As you might imagine with that lopsided of a record, the A's are outscoring the M's 64-31. Oakland collected twice as many extra-base hits (34-17) and close to that ratio in walks (45-24).

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

August 01, 2006

AL East Tied
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C.C. Sabathia spread out 10 hits over eight innings but allows just one run as the Indians take a 6-3 win against the Boston Red Sox. Boston picked up just one hit in nine at bats with runners in scoring position. Meanwhile, in New York, the Yankees defeat the Blue Jays 5-1. A-Rod drives in two and Bernie Williams drives in three to support Jaret Wright for the win. Wright pitched five good innings, walking one and striking out five, but it took him 103 pitches to get there. Villone, Proctor and Farnsworth combined for four two hit innings to preserve the victory. They threw just 49 pitches.

The Yankees move percentage points ahead of Boston as they hold a 62-41 record vs. 63-42 for the Red Sox. It's going to be a fun last two months in the division.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)

July 31, 2006

Mariners in Third
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The Mariners couple a big 10-5 win over the Orioles with a big 15-2 loss by the Rangers to move into third place in the AL West. With the Athletics and Angels playing each other, they're bound to gain on one of the other teams in the division as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Remembering the Sweep
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Tom Elia was there the last time the Cubs swept the Cardinals in Chicago. He makes this bold prediction:

As for this season's sweep of the Cards, I firmly believe that if the Cubs can win 65 of their last 58 games, they will finish up the season with 108 wins.

I would bet against that. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 28, 2006

Marlins in Second
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Pedro Martinez goes six innings and picks up the win for the Mets. After a rough first, he and the Mets bullpen allow just one hit the rest of the way. The Braves 6-4 loss coupled with the Marlins win moves Florida into second place in the NL East. There are now just three teams ahead of the Marlins for the Wild Card. It's been an amazing season for the team from South Florida.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Closing the Gap
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Jason Williams previews the Tigers-Twins series.

The Twins are a half-game behind New York in the wild-card standings after sweeping Chicago. The wild card seems more realistic, considering the Tigers (68-33) haven't let up since Day One. But the Twins, who gained almost no ground on the Tigers during their 19-1 run from June 11-July 3, still have 10 games against Detroit this season.

So a division title isn't out of reach. Seven Twins-Tigers games remain at the Metrodome, where the Twins have been nearly unbeatable.

'You would think that sooner or later they would go into a little bit of a funk,' Twins third baseman Nick Punto said. 'But that's not really any of our concern. We've been playing incredible baseball the last 40 games. If you keep playing like that, you're going to catch everybody.'

Gardenhire looks at the idea of a funk a bit differently:

'Everybody keeps saying, 'You know the Tigers are going to go into some kind of (slump),' ' Gardenhire said. 'They're built obviously for the long haul, because they've handled it from Day One.'

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 26, 2006

Twins Complete the Sweep
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As I write this, there's a three way tie for the Wild Card in the American League. The Twins completed a sweep of the White Sox, defeating the defending World Champs 7-4. Carlos Silva got the team through five innings, which was enough to turn it over to the bullpen. They struck out six and walked none as they allowed one run over their four innings of work.

Justin Morneau picked up three hits and a homer to continue to prove my criticisms wrong. He's now hit 27 homer on the season with a .597 slugging percentage. He's certainly hitting like a first baseman.

Since the break, the White Sox are 2-9, while the Twins caught them with an 11-2 mark.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 25, 2006

One More Runner
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The Twins and White Sox each hit two home runs tonight. The difference was the Twins scored four runs with their two dingers, the White Sox only three. All the runs in the game came on the long ball as Minnesota defeats Chicago 4-3. Thome hit his 33rd of the season. The Twins are now just one game out of the wild card lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

July 24, 2006

Tighter Wild Card
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The Twins defeat the White Sox 7-4. With the Yankees winning over Texas 6-2, the AL Wild Card race gets much closer. Chicago now leads the Yankees by 1 1/2 games, the Twins by 2. The White Sox are 3-10 over their last 13 games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)

July 23, 2006

Giant Leap
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The Giants sit atop the NL West today, defeating the San Diego Padres 4-3. Mike Matheny replacement Eliezer Alfonzo was the heavy hitter. Dueces were wild for the new E. Alfonzo as he goes 2 for 2 with a double, 2 runs and 2 RBI. He's not getting on base much, but he's slugging .541. It's the Giants third one-run victory in their five game streak.

While he Giants won their fifth in a row, Arizona took their fourth straight by beating the Colorado Rockies 4-3. That ties them with San Diego, 1/2 game behind the Giants. Carlos Quentin continues to impress, picking up two hits, a double and a home run. That gives him three hits in his career, all for extra bases. I wonder what the record is for consecutive extra-base hits to start a career?

Meanwhile, the Dodgers fall further back, still not able to score against the Cardinals. Worst of all, they could manage just one run against Jeff Weaver. (Someone must have told them it was Jered on the mound.) Albert Pujols hit his NL leading 32nd home run. Although he only leads Ryan Howard by one dinger, he's hitting long balls at a rate of one every 9.1 at bats, while Howard is at 1 every 11.0 at bats. The Cardinals take the 6-1 victory.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 16, 2006

The Wild Card is Back
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A couple of weeks ago it looked like the AL wasn't going to have a wild card race. But with the Yankees completeing a sweep of the Chicago White Sox today, that race is alive and well. New York gained 2 1/2 games on the Red Sox since the All-Star break to move within 1/2 a game in that division. They're also just three back in the wild card. But the Yankees also pulled Toronto and Minnesota along with them. The Blue Jays are just six back of the White Sox, the Twins 6 1/2. With a tight race in the West, 10 of the 14 American League teams are in contention for a playoff spot at the end of action today.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 09, 2006

Pitching and Offense
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The Cubs 11-4 victory today gave them three wins in a row for the first time in a month. And for the first time in a while, the Cubs showed some offense to go with their pitching, outscoring the Brewers 21-7 over the three games. The Brewers were on a roll, sweeping the Reds and facing what should be an easier opponent in the Cubs. But after winning the first game, Aramis Ramirez (5 for 10), Matt Murton (5 for 10) and Juan Pierre (6 for 15) came alive to propel the Cubs to three straight wins. Milwaukee was not able to stay above .500, but they're still in the thick of the race.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Three out of Four Isn't Bad
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The Angels came into the weekend with a chance to tie the Athletics with a sweep. They did the next best thing, taking three of four from Oakland with a 4-2 victory. In the last three games of the series, the A's were held to six runs and fifteen hits. In their last 13 games, the A's scored just 38 runs, going 4-9. Texas is now tied for first in a very tight division which find LAnaheim just two games back and Seattle 2 1/2. It's going to be a fun second half in the west.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 06, 2006

Getting Closer in the Central
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Redemption was the theme of the Brewers win last night as they swept the Reds to move within 1 1/2 games of second place.

Rickie Weeks's bases-loaded single brought in the tying and winning runs in the bottom of the 13th inning as the Brewers scratched, clawed, bit and gnashed their way to a 6-5 victory over the Cincinnati Reds in a battle of wills.

Weeks' single was a bit of redemption after he failed to flag a pop fly down the right-field line off the bat of Juan Castro for a double, then got caught with the ball on a sacrifice bunt as Castro came all the way around from second to give the Reds a 5-4 lead in the top of the 13th.

"I don't know about redemption, but our team was fighting the whole way from the first pitch to the last pitch," Weeks said.

Jenkins and Kolb each experienced redeeming moments, too. Milwaukee knocks the Reds out of the top spot for the wild card, with the three teams tied for the lead in the west holding that as well. The Brewers are back at .500 and get to face the Cubs in a four game series. That gives them a good chance of taking 3 of four and going into the All-Star break two games above .500.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:50 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 05, 2006

Western Three-Way
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The Rockies and the Dodgers picked up convincing wins against the Giants and Diamondbacks respectively to move into a three way tie with the San Diego Padres. The West can't get much tighter right now with the Giants 1/2 game back and the Diamondbacks just 3 1/2 off the pace. It's still any team's division.

The Rockies nearly pitched another Coors shutout. Jay Francis last five innings, allowing just one hit. A rain delay forced him out of the game, but the bullpen didn't lose a beat. The Giants didn't score until Ramon Ramirez gave up a walk and a double to start the ninth. He retired the next three batters to end the game, a 6-1 win for the Rockies.

It's the first time Colorado has been in first place this late in the season since July 3, 2000. The next day the Giants swept a doubleheader from the Rockies, sending Colorado on an 11-game slide and out of the divisional race.

The Rockies are fifth in the NL in ERA, and seventh in ERA at home. Whatever they've done to either find people who can pitch in Colorado or put a damper on the ball is working.

The Diamondbacks scored the first two runs last night. Orlando Hudson moved up to the two spot and responded with a first inning home run. But the Dodgers started scoring in the bottom of the second and didn't stop until the seventh. In between, the pushed across eleven runs to take an 11-3 victory. The Dodgers lead the NL in runs per game at 5.3. They've scored 21 in their last two games after being in a mini-slump, plating just 15 in their previous six contests.

The series has been a bit of a bean-ball war:

J.D. Drew of the Dodgers and Arizona's Shawn Green were hit by pitches one day after Nomar Garciaparra was hit three times by Arizona pitchers.

Drew was the first batter Brandon Medders faced in the fifth, and he got hit below the knee. Home plate umpire Lax Diaz warned both sides after Green was hit in the right hip by Danys Baez with two outs in the ninth.

"I can honestly say I wasn't expecting it, but I know it was intentional," Green said. "It's unfortunate that the two intentional ones are on that side with guys on our team that got hit. It wasn't vice versa. But we've got a lot more games, so we'll see what happens."

An incensed Luis Gonzalez, dressing in an adjacent locker, interrupted reporters as they talked to Green after the game.

"Go ask Baez and Grady Little," he said in an expletive-filled tirade. "They're the ones that waited until late in the game to throw at him. It was gutless. Go talk to them so they can tell you that the ball slipped out of his hand."

Asked about Baez hitting Green, Little, the Dodgers manager, replied, "I call that a pitcher trying to get a ball in on him that just got too far in. That's all it was."

Let's hope cooler heads prevail.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Jays Gain
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The Toronto Blue Jays played a close game with the Rangers last night, hanging on for a 3-2 win. It was a good night for a victory,as they gained ground on both the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Rangers out-ht and out-walked the Blue Jays, but two home runs by Toronto made the difference. This series has exposed a Blue Jays weakness, however:

For the second straight night, the Blue Jays had problems with a finesse left-hander. On Monday night, John Rheinecker allowed one run and five hits in seven innings of a 6-1 Texas victory.

Koronka was perfect over the first four innings, getting nine outs on fly balls over that span before Shea Hillenbrand collected Toronto's first hit with a one-out single in the fifth.

That's something to keep in mind should this team make the playoffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

July 04, 2006

The West Will Get Closer
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The Padres lost to the Phillies this afternoon 6-5. That sets up two of the four remaining NL West teams to gain ground. A Giants win over the Rockies puts San Francisco in first place.

The Padres were down 5-2 after four, but fought back to tie the game, hanging a blown save on Tom Gordon after Arthur Rhodes got into trouble in the eighth. But Howard and Rowand both singled in the ninth, with a groundout in between moving Ryan into scoring position, and the Phillies dashed the Padres hope of a win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:18 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Astros Close
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The Astros take advantage of the the Brewers beating the Reds to gain on the wild card also. Their 7-2 win over the Cubs puts them back 1/2 game ahead of the Brewers, two behind Cincinnati. Despite Andy Pettitte giving up seven hits and four walks in six innings, the Cubs managed just one run against the lefty. Meanwhile, the Astros took advantage of four Prior walks to score four runs against the one-time ace. Prior's ERA is now 7.71 and teams are hitting .310 against him.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:27 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Closer to the Card
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The Milwaukee Brewers take game two of their series with the Cincinnati Reds to move 2 1/2 games out of the wild card spot. They made the most out of five hits and three walks, bringing five runs across the plate to Cincinnati's two. The bunched them well, however, picking up four of the five hits in the fourth inning, including a two-run homer by Koskie.

Doug Davis pitched to within one out of a complete game, but gave up a single and a walk with two out in the ninth. Shouse got the final batter for the save. Davis continues his great pitching. He's now posted a 2.95 ERA since the start of June, although this is only his second win in those six starts.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 01, 2006

Marlins in Second
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I wake up, look at the standings, and there are the Florida Marlins is second place in the NL East. They're seven games back of Cincinnati in the wild card race, but only five games down in the AFILC. The 1993 expansion teams, the Marlins (9-7) and the Rockies (10-3) hold the best records in the NL during interleague play, and each used those wins to move up to second place in their divisions.

The Rockies, at least, had built for this. Last I looked, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Washington were trying to win this season. Organizations like the Cubs and Royals can learn a thing or two from what the Marlins are accomplishing; you can do just as well with good players in their early 20s as you can with established players in their 30s.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:07 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

June 20, 2006

Scariest Opponent
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Blez at Athletics Nation is still scared of the Angels because of their young talent. I'd be more scared of the Rangers since they appear to have found okay pitching, and when the offense clicks their pitchers are going to be good enough. Texas is in the middle of the pack in ERA and near the top in runs scored. An improvement in either gives them a good chance to win the division.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

June 16, 2006

Whom to Chase?
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Phil Sheridan postulates the Phillies have a better chance of catching the Mets than winning the wild card:

While the Phillies are in second place, their record would put them no higher than third in any other division in baseball. It also has them behind six other teams in the battle for the NL wild card.

That's right. Six.

Cincinnati is out in front with a 37-29 record. All four teams out of first in the NL West are at .500 or better, as is Houston. Milwaukee (32-35) is in the mix.

So the question is this: What about the Phillies makes you believe they are capable of outplaying seven or eight teams to win the wild card? Isn't it more likely for Houston to win it a third consecutive time? Or for Cincinnati to stay hot? Or for the NL West runner-up to earn the wild card?

The Phillies? This is a team that has come up short in every wild-card race since the darn thing was introduced in 1995, and has been achingly short in three of the last four seasons. If history is the best predictor of performance, the Phillies are as likely to win the Stanley Cup as they are to surge ahead of six teams and claim the wild card.

I also like this bit about playing up to their potential:

"Everybody is frustrated," said leftfielder Pat Burrell, who hit a pair of home runs yesterday. "We have virtually the same guys out there as we did last year. We're just not playing up to the potential that we're capable of."

Apparently, though, they are. They are the Punxsutawney Phils because, as in Groundhog Day, they go out and do the same thing over and over. The nucleus of players Burrell is talking about - himself, Bobby Abreu, David Bell, Mike Lieberthal, Jimmy Rollins - has fallen short year after year after year.

Part of the problem this year is luck. The Phillies are 8-13 in one-run games. And that's despite having a very good closer. But even if they were .500 in these close contests, they'd still have a long way to go to win the division. Part of the problem may be the park. I'd love to hear Phillies fans comment on the following chart:

Doubles, 2006	Phillies	Opponents
Home	76	77
Away	46	70

Why do the Phillies doubles disappear away from town? Do the batters get into bad habits in that ballpark because power is easy there?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

June 15, 2006

Five Team Race
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The leading teams lost and the trailing teams won last night as two games now separate top from bottom in the NL West. After the Nats blowout earlier in the evening, the Giants took on the first place Diamondbacks and the Padres faced the first place Dodgers. San Francisco was down 4-1 early, but score 10 unanswered runs to take the game 11-4. Barry Bonds hit well, going 2 for 3 with 2 walks and a home run. Vizquel and Finley were on base seven times in 10 at bats and parlayed that into seven runs. Neither team was scoring much coming into the game. San Francisco broke a slump in which they scored 16 runs in 7 games. With last night's loss, the Diamondbacks are at 22 runs in their last 9 games.

Mike Thompson continued his success at PETCO as the Padres won a close game with the Dodgers 5-3. He's given up 13 hits in 20 innings at home, as opposed to 20 hits in 14 innings on the road. Matt Kemp hit his seveth home run in 15 games, this time as a pinch-hitter. He's hitting a home run every 6.4 at bats. At that rate, it will take him 4854 at bats to catch Aaron.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

June 08, 2006

Reds Win
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The Cincinnati Reds take over first place in the NL Central with a 7-1 drubbing of the Cubs. Bronson Arroyo gives up one run on a homer over seven innings, lowering his second place ERA to 2.31. Freel and Lopez reached base six times and scored twice, another good night for the table setters.

It's the 17th time in 59 games the Cubs were held to one run or less and the third game in a row.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

May 26, 2006

Lucky Seven
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The Tigers extended their winning streak to seven games tonight with an 8-3 win over the Cleveland Indians. The White Sox also lost, so they extend their lead to 2 1/2 games in the AL Central. Granderson was the hitting star tonight, driving in five runs with a two-run single and a three-run triple.

The Indians lost a golden opportunity to gain on the division leaders. The team did a good job of putting the ball in play, with 29 of 33 batters making fair contact. But only seven of those batted balls fell for hits, a .241 average. Cleveland came into the game with a .336 BA on balls in play, the best in the American League.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

May 16, 2006

Tigers Tie
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The Tigers win and the White Sox lose with the result a tie for first place between Detroit and Chicago. This actually is bad news for Cleveland and Minnesota. With two teams way out in front of the division, it's less likely that both will come back to the pack. However, it's good for the fans as it's always fun to see a close race between two good teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

April 30, 2006

Amazing Lead
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The Mets 1-0 win over the Braves last night assure the New Yorkers of the biggest NL East lead at the end of April:

Coupled with the Phillies' loss, the Mets (16-7) have opened a historic seven-game division lead. No NL East team had ever led by more than five games in April - and that team happened to win the 1986 World Series.

That's a nice way to celebrate the 20th anniversary of your last championship. There are two things that stand out to me when I look at the team statistics for New York. The first is their stolen base success. They stolen 28 of 30 for a 93.3 percentage. The only person caught is Reyes! Whoever is picking the spots to run is doing an excellent job.

Secondly, not only do the Mets have the best ERA in the majors, but they have the best road ERA in the majors. It's easy to be at the top in ERA when you play in a stadium favorable to pitching. But when you shut down teams away from home, that's something special. The Mets are looking like the real deal at the moment, especially given the weaknesses of the rest of the division.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:26 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)

April 18, 2006

Two Hundreth Win Sets Record
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Pedro Martinez notched his 200th win last night, and the Mets set a record at the same time:

The Mets, off to the best start in franchise history at 10-2, opened a five-game lead in the NL East standings - the largest lead in a division in major-league history after 12 games.

Congratulations to Pedro for reaching that milestone. The Mets pitching and offense have been equally superb so far in 2006. They're laying the foundation for a division championship early this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:35 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

October 02, 2005

Red Sox Win
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It's official, the Red Sox win 10-1, making the Yankees the third seed in the AL playoffs. Schilling gave up 8 hits in six innings but allowed just one run. He only struck out three, however. How well he'll do in the playoffs is anyone's guess. One thing's for sure, he'll pitch his guts out every start.

Congratulations to the Red Sox. They didn't so much falter (they went 18-13 in Sept-Oct) down the stretch as the Yankees came on strong (20-10 in Sept-Oct). They're still in the hunt to defend their series crown and they have an offense that can score on anybody.

The ALDS really puts to the test the old adage that good pitching stops good hitting. LAnaheim and Chicago have outstanding pitching staffs. The Yankees and Red Sox have outstanding offenses. We'll see how well the adage holds up over the next week.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:16 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Angels Win
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What a great finish by LAnaheim. Three weeks ago they looked like the also ran in the AL at best. They win today 7-4 to take 14 of their last 16 games and they appear to have won home field in the first round of the American League playoffs. The Yankees are losing 10-1 and all their starters are out of the game. Congratulations to the Angels on a terrific finish.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Top of the Ninth in Houston
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The Astros bring in a tired Brad Lidge to start the ninth and try to get the save. Matt Murton singles on the first pitch. Ben Grieve pinch hits for Perez.

Update: Grieve strikes out on a 1-2 pitch. Lidge kept the ball low and inside and Ben couldn't handle it.

Update: Todd Walker pinch hits. He'll try to do his best Kirk Gibson.

Update: Walker grounds to short. Bruntlett drops the ball at second and Murton is safe. Cubs have men on 1st and 2nd with one out.

Update: Phillies win 9-3. Lidge gets a ground out to short, but the Cubs have men on 2nd and 3rd with two out for Macias. Doesn't Dusty have a pinch hitter for this guy?

Update: Macias lines out to second to end the game. The Astros win the game 6-4 and wins the NL Wild Card by a game over the Phillies. Congratulations to the Astros on another great comeback season!

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:38 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Yankees Concede Homefield
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Joe Torre brings in all the scrubs in the bottom of the sixth with New York down 7-1. It looks like the Yankees will be boarding a plane for Anaheim to start the ALDS with the Angels up 7-4 in the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Phillies Still Fighting
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The Phillies are not going quietly in Washington. They've already scored two, and the bases are loaded with two outs. Frank Robinson is going to Chad Cordero to prevent any more damage.

Update: Cordero hits Rollins in the shoulder to drive in another run. The Phillies now lead 8-3, but it may be for naught as the Astros need just three more outs to win.

An infield single extends the Phillies lead to 9-3 in the ninth.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Bottom of the Ninth in Cleveland
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Aaron Boone walks with one out to bring the tying run to the plate.

Update: Orlando Hernandez strikes out Blake on three pitches. The season is up to Sizemore.

Update: Sizemore grounds out to second. The Red Sox are the Wild Card. What a poor finish for the Indians. The dropped fly ball in Kansas City, losing two out of three to the Devil Rays, then losing the opening game to the White Sox when Chicago didn't put their best team on the field. Like the Athletics in the west, Cleveland just ran out of gas.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:03 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Perez Giveth, and Perez Taketh Away
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Lane homers to tie the Cubs at four. Then with Everett at first, Bagwell pinch hits and grounds a slow roller to Perez. Neifi goes for the double play, but throws the ball into right. Everett scores and Bagwell winds up at third. The Astros take a 5-4 lead and Maddux is out of the game. He won't reach .500.

Update: A wild pitch makes the Astros Wild Card hopes higher. At the end of six, the Astros lead 6-4.

Correction: It was Lane, not Lamb who hit the home run.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Ortiz RBI
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David Ortiz picks up RBI 148 in the bottom of the fourth, hitting a single to left off Proctor to make the score 3-0.

Update: More bad news for the Yankees as the Angels take a 5-4 lead in Texas.

Update: Manny Ramirez hits a three run shot to make the score 6-0. Cleveland just finished the 8th, putting the leadoff man on but once again leaving him on base. Things are looking bad for Cleveland.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:47 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Cubs Tie
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Three straight singles by the Cubs plate Garciaparra and the Cubs tie the Astros at three. A good throw would have gotten Nomar at the plate.

Update: Neifi Perez delivers his third hit of the game, a single to drive in Burnitz with two out. Oswalt has no excuse for allowing three hits to Perez. It's 4-3 Cubs, and the Phillies still have the lead in Washington.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:41 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Mueller Mauls
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Bill Mueller goes deep to extend the Red Sox lead to 2-0. After a walk, Proctor is coming into the game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Indians On Again
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Casey Blake battles back from an 0-2 count to lead off the Indians seventh with a single. Sizemore then hits the first pitch for a double play. It's the same problem for the Indians; plenty of baserunners but no follow up. It's 3-1 White Sox after seven.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:30 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Cubs Comeback?
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A Barrett homer and two singles put Chicago on the board and threatening for more. The Cubs have runners on 1st and 3rd with Maddux at the plate. Maddux bunts, but Oswalt makes a great play, starting a double play and leaving the runner at third.

Update: Patterson doubles in a run to make the score 3-2. Oswalt's great play on the bunt saves a run.

Update: Oswalt gets out of the inning. The Astros lead 3-2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:21 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Oswalt Helps Himself
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Roy Oswalt gets an infield hit to drive in a run, extending the Astros lead to 3-0. The Phillies are doing their job, winning 5-3, but it will be for naught unless the Cubs come back against Houston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:16 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Nixon Knocks One In
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Trot Nixon hits a bases loaded sacrifice fly to give the Red Sox a 1-0 lead over the Yankees, putting more pressure on the Indians.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Juan Gone
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Juan Rivera goes deep again, bringing the Angels back even with the Rangers at four. He's set a career high with 15 homers this season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Leadoff Long Hit
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Hafner doubles leading off the sixth inning. The Indians put four leadoff men on today, but can never seem to put hits together until they get two outs.

Victor Martinez doesn't get good wood on the ball, but he flairs it over the third baseman for a double and an RBI. The White Sox now lead 3-1. McCarthy is over 100 pitches, so he may be tiring.

Update: McCarthy leaves, but the Indians can't get another hit. They trail 3-1 at the end of six.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Rangers Helping the Yankees
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Matthews triples to drive in two, making it a four run inning for Texas. The Rangers lead the Angels 4-1 after three.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:58 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Crisp Double
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With Boone on first and two out, Coco Crips hits his 42nd double of the year. Jhonny Peralta bats with men on 2nd and 3rd and two out.

Update: Peralta flies out to end the inning. That's three times Peralta's hit with men on base and three times he's failed to advance anyone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Double Triple
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Oswalt gives up his first hit of the game, a double to Neifi Perez. Neifi ends up at third on a throwing error by Berkman.

Update: Neifi tries to score on a ball to the shortstop with the infield in. He's easily thrown out at the plate, leaving Maddux at first. Maddux ends up at second on a wild pitch.

Update: Oswalt's a little wild here as he hits Patterson to put the tying run on base.

Update: Jose Macias grounds out on ball 4 to end the inning. Why Dusty has two poor OBA guys at the top of the order today is beyond me. Macias has a .299 career OBA in seven seasons.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Phour for the Phillies
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The Phillies pick up three runs in the top of the fifth. With two out, Pratt and Lieber both reach base, Lieber on a walk. Rollins and Lofton follow with doubles and the Phillies have a commanding lead in a ball park that's run stingy.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Leaving Runners
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The Red Sox put three men on in the bottom of the first but leave the bases loaded. If the first inning is any indication, the managers will be going to the bullpen early and often in this game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Angels Go For Home
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The LAnaheim Angels put an unearned run on the board in the first to put some pressure on the Yankees. An Angels win and a Yankees loss puts the opening game of the ALDS in Anaheim.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

The White Sox Don't Score!
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The Indians finally hold the White Sox scoreless in an inning. It's still 3-0 going to the bottom of the fourth in Cleveland.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Bends But Doesn't Break
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Schilling gives up three hits but no runs as Manny's throw to second saves the inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

0 for Oswalt
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Roy Oswalt retires the Cubs in order in the first on 13 pitches.

Update: Ensberg singles in Biggo, who was on base with a double. The Astros lead 1-0.

Update: Lamb also gets an RBI single to give the Astros an early 2-0 lead. They've gone to the top of the second there.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wall Out
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Jeter gets all of a poor Schilling pitch to knock a single off the Green Monster. It looked like a double, but Manny played it perfectly and threw Jeter out at second easily.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:12 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

KWP
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Carrasco strikes out Utley on a pitch in the dirt that gets away from Bennett. The wild pitch gives the Phillies 1st and 3rd with one out for Abreu.

Update: Abreu gives the Phillies the lead with a sac fly just as the Astros get under way in Houston.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Sox Take 3-0 Lead
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Konerko hits the sacrifice fly to give Chicago a 3-0 lead. That's 100 RBI for Paul Konerko. As the Red Sox game starts, there's a little less pressure on them with the Indians losing.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Rollins at 36
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Jimmy Rollins leads off the fourth with a single, extending his hit streak to 36 games. Hit streaks do not carry over from year to year, so unless there is a game tomorrow, it will end here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:59 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Iguchi Triples
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Tadahito Iguchi triples over the head of Grady Sizemore in deep center. The ball took a high, slow bounce that allowed Tadahito to take the extra base. With none out, the White Sox have two chances to drive him in with a fly ball.

Update: Elarton gets ahead of Dye 0-2 but then ends up walking him. That's it for Elarton. Wedge has a very short leash today.

Update: Riske is on in relief.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Nine Up, Nine Down
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Hector Carrasco looks strong through three innings, retiring all nine batters he's faced. He's struck out two and has thrown 31 of 46 pitches for strikes.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Nationals Threaten
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Washington gets a man to third with one out after a Zimmerman double and a Church groundout.

Update: Cruz grounds out to a drawn in infield, stranding Zimmerman at third. The Phillies are walking Bennett to pitch to Carrasco.

Update: Carrasco strikes out, and doesn't look very good doing it. The game remains scoreless in Washington.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Chicago Scores Again
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The White Sox get an RBI single from Joe Crede. The White Sox followed a hit batter with two singles for the run, and have men at 1st and 2nd with 1 out.

Update: Cleveland strands the two runners. They're down 2-0 after two.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Indian On
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Grady Sizemore starts the Indians first with a walk. Crisp follows with a fly out to right.

Update: With two out, Hafner singles to right center. That puts men on 1st and 3rd with two out.

Update: Victor Martinez gives the ball a ride to deep left, but flies out to end the inning. Cleveland is down 1-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Phillies Up, Down
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Hector Carrasco retires the Phillies in order in the 1st. That's 18 2/3 scoreless innings for Hector.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Deep Dye
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Jermaine Dye launches an Elarton pitch down the left field line for a 1-0 Chicago lead. It's the 32nd home run given up by Elarton this year, but only the 4th since Sept. 1st.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

October 01, 2005

Bottom of the 9th in Washington
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The Phillies lead the Nationals 8-4. Wagner faces Brandon Watson leading off the 9th.

Update: Watson strikes out on a 98 MPH fastball.

Update: Marlon Byrd strikes out looking.

Update: Kenny Kelly is pinch hitting.

Update: Kelly strikes out on three pitches. The Phillies 8-4 win keep hope alive in the Wild Card race.

Eighteen of the 38 batters who came to the plate for Washington struck out. They drew one walk, meaning when the Nationals put the ball in play they were 8 for 19, a .421 batting average. Just another example of how important it is to make contact.

The Phillies' win means four important games tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:19 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Astros Win, Clinch Tie
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The Astros finish the game winning 3-1, guaranteeing them no worse than a tie for the wild card. Clemens gets the win to go 13-8, while Lidge has a much better day, retiring the side in the ninth on 9 pitches, seven of them strikes.

The Astros control their fate. A Phillies loss today or tomorrow will give Houston the Wild Card berth, or a win by Houston tomorrow does the same.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Clemens Out
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The Astros are pinch hitting for Clemens in the 7th. Roger pitches a good game, striking out five and walking three. Most importantly, he allows just one run and leaves with the lead in hand. He finishes the regular season with a 1.87 ERA and a .198 batting average allowed. Roger went 12 for 58 on the season, a .207 batting average, hitting better than his opponents. Now that's impressive.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:58 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

AL Wild Card
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I notice I haven't spelled this out. The Red Sox now control their own destiny. A win tomorrow by the Red Sox gives them the AL Wild Card. A loss by Boston and a win by Cleveland puts the two teams into a one-game playoff at Boston on Monday. While we won't have the three-way tie, we have a shot at two Wild Card playoff games on Monday.

Depending on the result of the LAnaheim game, the tomorrow's game in Boston could be meaningful to the Yankees. If the Angels win tonight and tomorrow, they'll have 95 wins. If the Yankees lose tomorrow, they have 95 wins. In that case, the Angels win the tie-breaker and get home field in the first round vs. New York. Given that the Yankees are much better at home than on the road, they may not want that to happen.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

He's the Most Ut
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Chase Utley homers to make the score in Washington 6-2. The two-run shot gives Chase 64 RBI in 71 games since the All-Star break.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Taveras Doubles
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Willy Taveras doubles to start off the sixth inning. Ensberg pops out to the third baseman for the first out. Two more chances for the Astros with the speedy Taveras at second.

Update: Berkman is hit by the pitch, putting men on first and second and setting up the double play. Given that Lance is the most dangerous hitter on the team, it's probably a good move.

Lamb hits into a force out to put runners on first and third with two out.

Update: Jason Lane singles through the hole to drive in Taveras and put the Astros back on top 2-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Cubs Tie
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The Cubs load the bases in the fourth and Matt Murton delivers a sac fly to tie the game. All the runners move up, so they walk Patterson to pitch to the pitcher Williams. Clemens strikes out Jerome to end the threat.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Leading Man
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Craig Biggio leads off the game for Houston with his 26th home run of the season. A win by the Astros means they can't do worse than a tie for the Wild Card.

Clemens is pitching well so far. Through 3 innings he's struck out three and walked just one. The Astros lead 1-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Yankees Win! Thhhhhhhhhe Yankees Win!
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Rivera gets the last three outs, and the Yankees take the game 8-4. The victory, along with the Cleveland loss, makes the Yankees the AL East Champions. The best the Red Sox can do is tie the Yankees, and if that happens, both teams will have better records than Cleveland, so head-to-head record is used to break the tie. With 10 wins vs. the Red Sox, the Yankees take the division.

I must admit I'm impressed. When they were losing to Tampa, when they were being swept by Kansas City, I thought they were through. But they went out and found pitching, and with their great offense made better by Giambi and Cano, they started winning and kept winning.

Congratulations on an amazing comeback.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:28 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Rollins to 35
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Rollins doubles and scores in the first inning to extend his streak to 35 games and give the Phillies a 1-0 lead. A Philly wins keeps them alive for tomorrow.

Update: Ryan Howard keeps looking better for Rookie of the Year as he doubles in three to extend the Phillies lead to 4-0. That gives Howard 40 extra-base hits in 87 games.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Bottom of the Ninth in Cleveland
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The Indians are down to their last three outs. Boone leads off.

Update: Boone strikes out.

Update: Blake flies out to centerfield. One out to go, and Sizemore up.

Update: Sizemore pops out to shortstop. The Indians lose, and their one week collaspe is almost complete. The Yankees are three outs away from winning the AL East. The three-way playoff is dead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Bottom of the Seventh
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Victor Martinez reaches first via the walk to start the 7th for the Indians. They need as many runners as possible.

Update: The Indians score two in the bottom of the 7th, then load the bases but don't score in the 8th. Belliard and Broussard both fly out to leave the ducks on the pond. That's the story of the Indians this week.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Division Champs?
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With Cleveland losing and the Yankees winning, New York will end up the AL East champ if these scores hold. I don't know the record, but the Yankees would be near the top of winning teams with fewest days in first place.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:14 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

White Sox Tie
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The Chicago White Sox come back in the top of the 7th to tie the Indians at one. Three singles, ending with a Baltimore chop by Ozuna leads to a run. The White Sox are still threatening with two outs.

Update: Earl Weaver would be pround as Iguchi hits a three-run homer to give the White Sox a 4-1 lead. Things are suddenly looking bleak for the Indians. That's 45 extra-base hits for the first year second baseman.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

A-Rod's 48
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Alex Rodriguez hits the ball onto Landsdowne Street to extend the Yankees lead to 7-2. With the Yankees and Indians leading, things are looking up for the three-way tie.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Scoreless at the Jake
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Garland and Westbrook are giving a clinic in pitching today. Not only are they pitching shutouts, but they're being very efficient in doing so. Both are averaging under 13 pitches per inning.

Update: Mighty Casey singles to right to drive in Belliard from second to give the Indians the 1-0 lead. Blake goes to second on the bobble.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Matsui to Center
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It looked like Tim Wakefield was going to have his first 1-2-3 inning, but Matsui takes him deep into the centerfield bleachers to make the score 6-2 New York after 2 1/2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:18 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Baserunners in Boston
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Johnny Damon walks again, this time to load the bases in the second inning. The lead off man reached in each half inning of the game so far.

Update: Johnson strikes out the side, getting Renteria to end the threat in the second. He goes back and forth between wildness and unhittability in this game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:08 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Meanwhile, In Cleveland
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The White Sox and the Indians are engaged in another low scoring contest. Through 2 1/2 innings, there's no score and each side has just one hit.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:03 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Hitting Again
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Once again, the Yankees start an inning with two hits. Tino singles, and Bernie Williams smashes a double off Millar's glove. The Yankees are threatening in the 2nd.

Update: Flaherty hits a Fly Ball A, scoring Tino from third and moving Williams to third. Bernie scores on Jeter's sac fly to get back the two runs Manny drove home.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Randy's First
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Randy Johnson walks Damon to start the first. Damon takes second immediately.

Update: Ortiz appeared to be hit by a pitch, but either the ump didn't see it or the ump didn't think Ortiz tried to get out of the way. David ends up striking out against Johnson with Damon on third. It's up to Manny now.

Update: It's not only up, but it's out. Manny blasts the ball down the line over the foul pole and everything else. It's 3-2 New York.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:41 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Starting With Singles
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Jeter and A-Rod set the table with singles off Wakefield.

Update: Giambi forces A-Rod, but Jeter scores. For the second day in a row, the Yankees take a 1-0 lead in the first.

Update: Sheffield goes deep into the Monster seats. Wakefield threw a 3-2 fast ball and Gary got all of it. The Yankees lead 3-0.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

September 30, 2005

Bottom of the 13th in Cleveland
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It will be Gutierrez, Martinez and Belliard in the bottom of the 13th for the Indians.

Update: Jenks is on to get the save. Jeff Liefer pinch hits for Gutierrez.

Update: Liefer runs the count full but strikes out swinging on a pitch down and in.

Update: Victor Martinez strikes out swinging. One out to go.

Update: Ron Belliard homers to left to bring the Indians within one. Is it too little too late?

Update: Broussard pops the first pitch up for the final out of the game.

The Indians were given this game on a platter. They had plenty of opportunities to score, but were 0 for 9 with men in scoring position. They're 0 for 23 on the home stand, according to the Cleveland telecast. If they don't homer, they don't score. Belliard's was the 51st of the month for the Tribe.

The White Sox win home field, and the Indians are one game behind the Yankees and Red Sox in the Wild Card chase.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Lucky 13?
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Willie Harris triples off the right field wall with one out in the top of the 13th. Podsednik tries to squeeze him home, but the Indians get Harris in a run down. Podsednik ends up at second, and Konerko is pinch hitting.

Update: They issue the intentional walk to Konerko, and a pinch runner takes his place. Seems a waste of Paul's talents.

Update: Gload doubles to center to drive in two. The White Sox lead 3-1.

Update: The Indians get the last out of the inning. The White Sox are three outs away from home field throughout the playoffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

End of Twelve
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Peralta grounds into a force out at second. The play was very close. Wedge came out to argue, but the play was extremely close. It easily could have gone either way.

The Cleveland fans are certainly getting their money's worth tonight.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Astros Last Out
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The Houston are down to their last out in the 9th. They have a man on third and Orlando Palmeiro is pinch-hitting for Taveras.

Update: Palmeiro flies out to right to end the game. The Phillies are now just one game behind Houston with two to play. We could end up with a tie in the NL as well.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Indians Get a Runner
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Gutierrez, hitting in Hafner's spot, walks with one out to put the winning run on base.

Update: Victor Martinez gets his third hit of the night to move Gutierrez to second with one out.

Update: Belliard walks to load the bases with 1 out. A long fly wins the game. Broussard is up.

Update: Broussard strikes out looking. It's up to Boone. Again.

Update: Boone grounds out and the game goes to the 12th inning.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Infield In Works
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Patterson grounds to Berkman, who throws out Burnitz at the plate. Cubs have men on 1st and 2nd with 1 out.

Update: Todd Walker limps to the plate but singles to right to put the Cubs up 4-3. He leaves for a pinch runner.

Update: The Astros get out of the inning down one run. Ausmus is scheduled to lead off the bottom of the ninth. He's the number 8 hitter.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Phillies Win
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Billy Wagner breaks Nick Johnson's bat and catches the resulting pop up to preserve the victory for the Phillies. Meanwhile, Brad Lidge blows the save as the Cubs tie the score at 3 in the top of the 9th. Chicago has men on 2nd and 3rd with no outs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Berkman Blast
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Lance Berkman hits a two run homer in the bottom of the 8th to put the Astros back in front 3-2. Washington just scored in the bottom of the ninth to cut the Phillies lead ot 4-3.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Top of the Ninth in Boston
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The Yankees end up with the bottom of the order up in the ninth. Sierra starts the inning with a strikeout against Timlin.

Update: Timlin strikes out Bernie with a high pitch.

Update: Cano singles to keep the Yankees alive. Timlin is going for a four out save here.

Update: Jeter grounds out to short. The Red Sox win 5-3. There will be two more meaningful games between these teams as they are tied at the top of the AL East.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Nomar, Mr. NIce Guy
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Nomar Garciaparra is now the Phillies favorite player. He drives in Perez to give the Cubs a 2-1 lead in the middle of the 8th. Derrek Lee tried to score from first on a bobble by the left fielder but was thrown out at the plate.

Nomar is back to his normal hitting. With his 1 for 4 tonight he's hitting .322 since returning from his injury.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Bottom of the Ninth in Cleveland
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The Indians get out of a jam in the top of the ninth, getting Timo Perez to ground into a double play to keep the score at 1-0.

Update: It's Hafner vs. Marte to start the inning.

Update: Hafner singles to left to start the ninth.

Update: Franklin Gutierrez runs for Hafner, and Martinez doubles to send him to third.

Update: Boone grounds into a double play, although a poor running play by Broussard caused the 2nd out. They go to extra innings in Cleveland.
Update: Hermanson is on to try to save the game. This is a real save situation.

Update: Belliard grounds out to short, driving in Gutierrez. The Indians have life.

Update: Broussard is walked to put men on first and second so Hermanson can pitch to Boone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

U-Turn
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Ugeth Urbina comes into the Phillies game with men on 1st and 3rd and 2 out and walks Wilkerson to load the bases for Carroll.

Update: Urbina gets a ground ball to Utley to end the inning. Phillies and Nationals go the the 8th with the score still 4-2 Philadelphia.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Lee Ties the Game
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Derrek Lee drives in his 107th run of the year with a sacrifice fly to even the score with the Astros at one. The Phillies are leading 4-2 in the seventh in Washington.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Opposites Attract
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Cano singles to left and Jeter homers into the right field bullpen to cut the lead in half. It's 5-3 in the top of the 7th as Wells approaches 100 pitches.

Update: Jeter's hit was the first by a righty off Wells tonight.

Update: A-Rod strikes out looking. This umpire takes his time making the hand signal, which drives me crazy.

Update: Giambi grounds out to first to end the inning. Wells is over 100 pitches.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:22 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Loaded for Bear
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Two singles and a walk and the bases are loaded with Red Sox for Trot Nixon in the 6th.

Update: No one's up in the Yankees' bullpen. It's Wang's game here.

Update: Wang walks Nixon to drive in Damon. Boston leads 3-1, the bases are still loaded with one out. Two relievers are now up in the NY pen.

Update: Giambi makes a bad throw to Posada on a slow grounder to allow Ortiz to score. The error leaves the bases loaded for Olerud and makes the score 4-1.

Update: Olerud hits a sacrifice fly to center field. Williams has no shot at Manny. The Yankees defense cost them two runs so far this inning.

Update: Giambi makes a nice pick on a hard shot by Mueller to end the inning. The defense does the damage, however, and the Red Sox are up 5-1 after six.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Short Night for Buehrle
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Mark Buehrle throws 88 pitches over 5 2/3 innings and comes out of the game. If Vizcaino can get out of the inning, Buehrle will be in line to get his 17th win. I assume he'll start game two of the ALDS.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:57 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Godzilla!
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Hideki Matsui gets his third hit off David Wells, a double that puts runners on second and third. Actually, I think Giambi could have scored from first on the hit, but he was held.

The righties against Wells are not timing his pitches well. They're hitting deep fly balls, but they're not connecting. Hideki has Wells' curve timed perfectly.

Posada ground hard to third, leaving the runners on base for Sierra.

Update: Sierra is just off as he hits a fly ball to straight away center for the third out. Maybe the switch hitters should bat lefty against Wells. All four hits off Wells have come off the bats of Giambi and Matsui.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Houston Has a Little Lamb
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Mike Lamb homers off Zambrano for the first hit and run of the game. He has 12 home runs this year, five in September.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Astros Underway
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Andy Pettitte retires the side on 13 pitches in the first, striking out one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Captain Comes Through
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Jason Varitek homers on the first pitch of the 2nd inning, a blast to dead center. The Red Sox lead 2-1.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Howard Homers
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Ryan Howard hits his 21st home run of the season to tie the Phillies-Nationals game at one. A big weekend from the big first baseman could win him the Jackie Robinson Award.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Phillies Down Early
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Brad Wilkerson doubles and works his way around to score on a ground out as Washington jumps out to a 1-0 lead on Cory Lidle in a game the Phillies need to win.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

White Sox Scrubs
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It looks like the White Sox are taking it easy tonight. They lineup they're putting on the field isn't the top of the line. Maybe tomorrow they'll challenge Cleveland, but tonight they'll try to take home field with the backups.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:07 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

AL Scenarios
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Lyflines gives you all the possibilities for the AL.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

September 29, 2005

Three Way Tie
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The Red Sox coming back sets up the possibility of a three-way tie at the end of the regular season. All we need is for the Red Sox to take 2 out of 3 at Fenway, and Cleveland to take 2 out of 3 at home. As Meatloaf once sung, two out of three ain't bad.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:01 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)

White Sox Win Central
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Polanco lines out to Konerko to end the game and give Chicago it's first division win in five years. It just goes to show the games in April and May are just as important as the games in September. Great pitching by Garcia and the bullpen today, which is the story of the season for this team. Now they get to wait to see who wins the lottery to play them in the first round.

Congratulations to the White Sox on the win. Guillen and Williams deserve a lot of credit for bringing the team to this point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:29 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)

Padres Pound Giants
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The Padres punctuated their push to pinnacle of Western preeminence by punishing the Giants 9-1. San Diego ran up the score without the use of a homer. Fifteen singles, four walks and a smattering of extra-base hits sent San Francisco into "Wait 'til next year" mode.

Pedro Astacio continued his surge to the end of the season. With Astacio pitching well, San Diego has two good starters to throw against St. Louis. With an extra day off in the most likely first round matchup, they could throw Peavy and Astacio twice on short rest, and depend on their lights out bullpen to keep the two from getting over worked. Bochy should think about this rotation:

• Tuesday - Peavy
• Thursday - Astacio
• Saturday - X
• Sunday - Peavy
• Monday - Astacio

If Bruce keeps their pitch counts down and is willing to use the bullpen extensively, the Padres might be able to shut down the Cardinals offense enough to win a couple of games. The Dodgers were able to do that with Hershiser in 1988 against the Mets. Maybe the Padres can do it with Peavy and Pedro.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Smells Like Victory
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There was an aroma in St. Louis last night:

Warming up in the bullpen, Brad Lidge enjoyed the sweet smell as Willy Taveras sprinted all the way home from first base on Morgan Ensberg's double to left field in the ninth inning Wednesday night.

The aroma got better for Lidge after he retired the St. Louis Cardinals in the bottom of the ninth, sealing a come-from-behind 7-6 victory that pushed the Astros closer to their second consecutive National League wild-card berth.

So an Astros win clinches a tie for the Wild Card.

Has Carpenter fallen out of contention for the Cy Young award? His ERA is up to 2.83 and he's posted a 5.73 mark in September. Is Dontrelle suddenly the front-runner or does it go to Clemens with his great ERA?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:49 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)

September 28, 2005

Boston Falls Back
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The Red Sox lose to Toronto 7-2. Ted Lilly did the job on the mound and Frank Catalanotto did the damage offensively. Frank went 3 for 5 and missed the cycle by a single. Lilly pitched into the seventh, giving up just two runs despite walking five and allowing six hits.

So the four way tie scenario has an important day tomorrow. Chicago and Cleveland have to lose and the Red Sox and Yankees need to win to have any shot at it. Then, Cleveland will need to sweep and the Red Sox will need to take 2 out of 3 from the Yankees at Fenway. Still lots of possibilities for a three way tie, however.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Early Homers
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Vernon Wells and Edgar Renteria went deep in Boston, accounting for all the runs in that game so far as the Blue Jays lead the Red Sox 2-1 after one inning. Javy Lopez hits a solo shot off Shawn Chacon to give the Orioles 1-0 lead over the Yankees after two.

Update: All the runs in the four big games came on home runs so far. Carlos Pena goes deep for Detroit to put the Tigers up 1-0 on the White Sox.

Update: Jermaine Dye breaks the home run streak, driving in Podsednik with a single. The White Sox and Tigers are tied at 1 in the third.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:32 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Playing to Win
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The Cardinals started their playoff batting order against the Astros last night. Good for them. Even though an Astros victory helps St. Louis toward an easier first-round opponent, St. Louis tried to win the game.

Oswalt pitched extremely well, striking out seven and walking none over seven innings. He threw 77 of 104 pitches for strikes. It looks like the Astros have two of their big three in shape for the playoffs. The Astros magic number is three to claim the wild card.

Right now the playoffs are shaping up to be St. Louis vs. San Diego and Atlanta vs. Houston. The St. Louis/San Diego series gets the extra day of rest this year (they play Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday). That means San Diego could bring Jake Peavy back in game 3 on short rest if they lose the first two, or the Cardinals could go with Carpenter if the reverse happened.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:54 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Four Way Tie
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The losses by all four of the remaining AL contenders last night put a crimp in the chance of a four-way tie. Right now, Chicago leads all three teams by two games. That means the White Sox have to lose four of their next five games for a chance at the four way playoff to happen. There also has to be an odd number of games separating Cleveland and Chicago, and an odd number of games separating Boston and New York going into the final three-game weekend.

So over the next two days we need:

• Chicago to go 0-2.


• Cleveland to go 1-1.


• One of Boston or New York to go 2-0 while the other goes 1-1.

Then over the weekend the trailing teams each go 2-1.

Or this scenario also works:

• Chicago goes 1-1.


• Cleveland goes 0-2.


• One of Boston or New York to go 2-0 while the other goes 1-1.

Then over the weekend Cleveland sweeps the White Sox while the trailing team in the east takes two out of three. My gut is that neither of these is very likely at this point.

For the three-way division wild card tie, we just need the Yankees and Red Sox separated by one game going into the weekend series. Then a number of combinations end up with Boston, New York and Cleveland involved in a two-day playoff.

If Cleveland and Chicago wind up tied with a better record then New York and Boston (also tied with each other), there's only a playoff between the Yankees and Red Sox, and the wild card is determined by head-to-head record between Chicago and Cleveland, which Chicago wins.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)

September 27, 2005

All Hands on Deck
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The Red Sox plan to go all out today.

With two of their remaining seven games to be played today, the Red Sox will treat this twin bill against Toronto with increased urgency. Starters will be asked to play both games, and bench players will remain there until called upon rather than see starting roles in one of the games. ``We try and take whatever happens and make it to your advantage,'' manager Terry Francona said after last night's rainout. ``It is hard to win doubleheaders. We may be more apt to play guys 18 innings than we would in June because of the urgency of our games.''

I'll be attending game 2 this evening with my good friend Jim Storer. I'm excited to see Gustavo Chacin in person, and I believe he deserves Rookie of the Year honors in the AL.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:58 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Bad Night for the Phillies
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The Phillies had the late lead and blew it. Instead of moving to within 1/2 a game of Houston, they are now down two in the loss column. Luckily for them, the game went so late there weren't many fans there to boo them. The Phillies need lots of help from the Cardinals and Cubs now.

Posted by StatsGuru at 12:50 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

September 26, 2005

Braves Don't Clinch
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The Colorado Rockies come back to defeat the Atlanta Braves 6-5. Todd Greene launched home run number seven, a three run shot in the 8th to give the Rockies the victory. If the Phillies hold on to their lead, they'll still have a chance to win the division outright.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

September 25, 2005

Ending in a Tie
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MLB.com details what happens in various tie situations. The Yankees, Red Sox and Indians finishing in a three way tie seems possible. For this to have a chance, however, the Yankees and Red Sox need to be separated by an odd number of games entering their weekend series. Beings selfish, I want as much baseball as possible, so I'd love to see the two day playoff between the three teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:18 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)

Fallen Angels
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The Anaheim Angels gave the Oakland Athletics an opening, losing 8-4 to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Jonny Gomes goes three for five, missing the cycle by a double. Colon can blame his back for his poor start. He allowed six earned runs in five innings.

With a win tonight, the A's would move three games out of the division title. That means they won't need to sweep the Angels to take the division, just win three out of four and hope for help on the last weekend. Given that the A's host Seattle and the Angels visit Texas, the A's could get the help they need. The Angels magic number is five, so a split with Oakland will earn them at least a tie.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

One Game Difference
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The Astros lose 3-2 to the Cubs, reducing their lead over the Phillies to one game. The Astros have the day off tomorrow, the Phillies on Thursday. It looks like the Phillies have the easier week, playing the Mets and Nationals while the Astros have the Cardinals and Cubs.

I'm very interested to see how La Russa plays the two games vs. the Astros. Letting the Astros win favors the Cardinals, as it would help get them the Padres in the first round. I have to believe the Cardinals would rather play the .500 team in the first round.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:55 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)

September 24, 2005

NL Taking Shape
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With the Braves winning and Philadelphia losing tonight, the NL playoff picture is coming into focus. The Cardinals have home field clinched. The Braves are going to win the east and have the 2nd best record in the NL. Those teams will host the first round. The Astros now have a two-game lead on the Phillies and are in a good position going into the final week of the season.

The Astros and Cardinals play two games early next week. What will the Cardinals do? If they lose those two games, Houston is likely to be the Wild Card, and St. Louis would get to open against San Diego. If St. Louis wins those two games, Philadelphia has a chance to catch Houston, and then the Cardinals might face the Phillies in the first round.

I'd rather have my team facing the Padres than the Phillies. Will La Russa start his scrubs or do his best to win those games?

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Even in the East
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Mike Timlin gives up a run in the bottom of the ninth but earns the save and the Red Sox a share of the AL East lead. I'd actually like to see the teams go into their three game weekend series separated by one game. That way, we have the possibility of a tie and a playoff game.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Western Races Done
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Congratulations soon will be in order for the LAnaheim Angels. Last night they came back from a 5-3 deficit with 2 runs in each of the 7th and 8th innings to take a 7-5 win against the Devil Rays. Meanwhile in Oakland, Kenny Rogers shut down the Athletics, allowing one run over 6 1/3 innings to give Texas a 3-1 victory and push the Athletics four games back in the standings. The Angels magic number is down to six, and even with four games head-to-head, it seems unlikely the Athletics will make the playoff this season.

The A's lost this race early. After a 6-2 loss to Cleveland on 5/29, Oakland was 17-32. The Oakland management showed once again how to adjust mid-season; their 67-37 record since is most impressive. From the 2000 season on, Oakland has won more games than any other team from July 1st on. They are 311-178 in that time, a .636 winning percentage. Next closest are the Yankees and Cardinals, each at 304-188, .618.

But games in April matter, and games in May matter. Just two or three more wins early and they're neck and neck with LAnaheim and still in the Wild Card hunt. Now they need to win every game, including sweeping a four game set against the Angels that starts on Monday. That's a tough challenge for a team that hasn't played well lately. It looks like the climb out of the hole didn't leave them enough energy to scale the mountain.

In the NL West, the Padres downed the Diamondbacks 5-3 behind a strong outing by Pedro Astacio. That puts Arizona on the brink of elimination and lowers the Padres magic number to five. Just a split of their four game series with Giants should seal the division for San Diego. Even just one win against San Francisco puts them in a good position to take the division. The big question for me is can they break the 1973 Mets mark for worst record winning a division*? The Mets that year were 82-79, a .509 winning percentage.

*I'm not counting 1994. The season ended that year with the Ranges leading the AL West with a sub .500 record. For some reason, division titles weren't awarded that year. I think it was a plot by the Braves to keep their consecutive division record intact.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

September 23, 2005

Diamonds in the Run
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The Arizona Diamondbacks picked up a game on the San Diego Padres yesterday when Alex Cintron hit a low pitch out of the BOB for a 7-4 DBacks victory. It was the last home run at the BOB, which will be renamed by Chase today at 2 PM.

The first series under the new name promises some excitement. The Diamondbacks magic number for elimination is four, but they get the chance to hold that level for three days as they go head-to-head with the Padres. The two teams are evenly matched, splitting eight games with each other so far this season. Hits are close (AZ 155-153), walks are even (56 each) and home runs are close (SD 22-21). The Diamondbacks, however, can't play this series close. They need to sweep, and the best way to do that is to win big.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:29 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

September 20, 2005

Astros Still Wild
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Andy Pettitte goes to 11-2 since the All-Star break as Houston tops Pittsburgh 7-4. It wasn't Andy's best pitched game as he allowed 2 runs in just 5 2/3 innings. The bottom of the order provided most of the offense as Everett and Ausmus punched out six hits, scored 3 runs and drove in five.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:26 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

September 19, 2005

Making Up the Losses
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The old saying is, "You can make up the wins, but you can't make up the losses." However, your opponents can make up the losses for you. In what should have been a cake walk in Pittsburgh, the Astros get shutout again. It's the 17th time the Houston offense failed to score and the 9th time they've done it in a Clemens start. The Phillies and Marlins each gain 1/2 game in the Wild Card race and "make up" a loss.

Update: No wonder the Pirates were victorious!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Wild Card Magic Numbers
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Michael Labuda points out that the White Sox magic number for clinching the Wild Card is nine, not ten. That makes my point from earlier today about the Yankees getting shutout of the playoffs even stronger.

That's another thing I don't like about the Wild Card. Magic numbers are not longer straight forward calculations!

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

White Sox Fall
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Rich Johnson of TheSpectrum.com in Utah humorously details the White Sox collaspe (spelling corrected):

The collapse of the Soviet Union wasn't this surprising. If Yankee Stadium imploded, it wouldn't be as wild. I'm telling you, this could be a crash bigger than Black Tuesday.

If you've been wondering, this would be the biggest lead blown by a division winner.

Now, a mere seven weeks later, the White Sox have gone from the team with baseball's best record to a possible head-scratching laughingstock and are in danger of becoming the team to blow the largest regular season lead in Major League history. According to the Associated Press, that dubious honor currently belongs to the 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers, who had a 13-game lead on Aug. 11 but collapsed and allowed Bobby Thompson to make history with his so-called "Shot Heard Round The World."

The Red Sox biggest lead over the Yankees was 14, but the Sox were never that far ahead of a second place team. Cleveland not only trailed by more games, they're coming back in a more compressed time frame.

Unfortunately, this race will lack some of the drama of 1951 and 1978 because the White Sox are still likely to make the playoffs even if they lose the division. It's the flip side of the Wild Card. Chicago could post the biggest collapse in history, but still win the World Series. The 1951 Dodgers and the 1978 Red Sox were tragic teams. The White Sox collapse may have no consequences.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:30 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)

Two Weeks to Go
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The following comment was posted yesterday afternoon:

Given the fact that the Indians & ChiSox play half of their remaining games against each other, I find it hard to believe that the Wild Card will come from the AL Central. Obviously with the way the Tribe is playing vs the way the Sox are playing, I'll give the edge to the Indians. Plus, being an Indians fan, I'd love to see it.

I just don't see how the Yankees won't make the playoffs as the Wild Card at least, especially given their puff schedule. If Chicago and Cleveland play each other even, it helps the Yankees. If one beats up on the other, it helps the Yankees. The only real question I have now is whether they win the division or not. They're playing too well right now and they have too many people on the team who know how to win.

The problem is, when Cleveland is not playing the White Sox, they're playing seven games against the Royals and Devil Rays. That's puff enough for anybody.

If you look at likely results, I see the Indians going 4-2 vs. Chicago, 3-1 vs. Kansas City and 2-1 vs. Tampa Bay for a 9-4 finish. I suspect the Yankees will go 6-2 vs. Baltimore, 2-1 vs. Toronto and 1-2 vs. Boston for a 9-5 finish. Since the White Sox magic number against the Yankees is 10, they just need to pick up three more wins vs. Minnesota and Detroit in this scenario to assure themselves of a playoff berth. I would not be at all surprised to see the Indians take the division and the White Sox win the Wild Card at this point.

As for knowing how to win, the Indians having the best record in the majors since 7/31/2005 (inclusive), four games better than the Yankees. It's my guess Cleveland figured out how to win at this point.

That doesn't mean the Yankees won't make the playoffs. They still have a shot at the AL East. The Red Sox get three games at Tampa Bay, so their schedule is a bit easier than the Yankees. They should be able to win each of their last four series, giving them the title. Of course, neither of these teams is as good as they were last year. There's questionable pitching on both sides. It's hard to know which Schilling or Wells shows up for any given start. Likewise with Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina for the Yankees. They Red Sox playing the last week at home works very much in their favor, however.

Oakland and LAnaheim play four games early next week. Each has a series outside the division, with the Angels drawing the Devil Rays and the Athletics the Twins. I'm not crazy about either of these teams at this point. The Angels do have six games against the Rangers, and given LAnaheim's lack of offense, the Rangers could take a few of those contests. The edge goes to the Angels, simply due to their two game lead.

The Braves are five games up with just 12 to play. They're in a good spot, but they do play nine games against the Marlins and the Phillies. Although it feels like Atlanta is slipping in this race, they still have the best record in the NL East in September, one game better than the Marlins and Phillies.

The real action in the NL is the Wild Card. Houston took control of the race with their victory and the Phillies defeat. Houston now gets four games against the Pirates, with Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt starting the first three games. They do have seven vs. the Cubs, however. They'll see Prior, Zambrano and Maddux at some point, so a few more times shutout may be in the Astros future as well. Taking five out of seven from the Phillies and Marlins gave them a leg up, and their schedule gives them no reason to give up that lead in the fortnight remaining.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:03 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

September 18, 2005

Astros Win
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The Astros down the Brewers 6-1, meaning they'll maintain their Wild Card regardless of the outcome of tonight's Phillies Marlins game.

I'm very impressed with the Astros. The Brewers were surging, having won seven of their previous 10 games, including two against the Astros. Houston handled them easily, however, removing the Brewers faint playoff hopes. They have a very easy schedule down the stretch, playing two games against the Cardinals but otherwise sub-.500 teams. The seven games against the Cubs might be tough, as Chicago can still send Prior, Zambrano and Maddux to the mound.

The Philles have the Reds as their easy team. The Mets are out of contention and the Nationals may be by the time the Phillies play them. The Braves do have a tough schedule (nine games against the Phillies and Marlins), so Philadelphia may have a better shot at the division than at the wild card.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:13 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)

September 17, 2005

One Run Wild Card
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It looks like the Oakland Athletics are falling out of the wild card race. They lose to Boston 2-1, while the Cleveland Indians defeat the Royals 5-4. With the Yankees winning 1-0, the Athletics are now down five games in the AFILC. They're not out of the playoff hunt since they're in striking distance of the Angels, but it looks like the wild card is going to come down to the East and the Central.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:00 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

September 16, 2005

Indians Retain Control
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The Indians will spend another day in first place in the wild card race. Scott Elarton pitched well into the eighth, allowing just five hits and 1 run. The Yankees and Athletics are winning right now, and this puts pressure on them to stay in the lead. The White Sox are tied at 1 with the Twins. If Cleveland can pick up two games this weekend, they can take over first with a sweep of Chicago early next week.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Wild Card Poll
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I signed up for free poll software. Here's one to start us off:

Take the poll here:
NL Wild Card Winner

See the results without voting: NL Wild Card Winner Results

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

September 15, 2005

Close in the East.
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The Red Sox lose to the Oakland Athletics, bringing the Yankees to 1 1/2 games of first place in the East.

I have to say I'm more suprised by the rise of the Yankees and than the fall of the White Sox. Early in the season, the play of New York had me believing they were at best a .550 team, a team that would win no more than 89 games.

Sinc and including the game of 8/17, the Yankees are 18-9, 2nd only to Cleveland. The Red Sox are 16-13, so it's been a very slow climb for New York. With all the AL divisions close and with the Wild Card very close, this is truly a year where anything can happen. Stay tuned.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:55 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

September 14, 2005

Cardinals Won't Clinch Today
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St. Louis loses 5-3 to Pittsburgh today, delaying their clinching of the division. I was incorrect last night, St. Louis' magic number is indeed two. If they won just one more game and the Astros won all of theirs, it's not certain that the two teams would have the best record in the league.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

September 13, 2005

On the Verge of Clinching
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With the Cardinals winning 5-4 on a ninth inning David Eckstein single, St. Louis is now one win or one Astros loss away from clinching the division. Since they are leading the season series 11-3, a tie would give them the division and the Astros the wild card. They'll have over two weeks to prepare and get healthy for the post season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

AL East Tightens
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The Yankees pull within 2 1/2 games of the Red Sox with their blow out win and the Red Sox blow out defeat. We should probably start thinking about the five way tie, where Boston, New York, Cleveland, LAnaheim and Oakland all end up with the same record. That would be sweet.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:39 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

September 12, 2005

Phillies Gain Ground
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Good pitching by a rookie and the bullpen will mean the Phillies will move up on one of the teams they are chasing for the Wild Card. Eude Brito strikes out seven in six scoreless innings, and the reliever allow just one run on a Hollandsworth homer. They're keeping the hope of a three way tie alive. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Graphic Races
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The Hardball Times now includes a Sparklines graph generator. Here's what the AL Central race looks like from August 1st on. Up lines are wins, down lines are losses, underlined indicates home games, and red lines indicate games decided by 2 runs or less.

Cleveland
Chicago

These are nice ways of conveying lots of information in very little space.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Breaking the Ties
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The coin flips were held today to determine which teams would host one-game playoffs to break division or wild card ties. I'm still holding out for a three or four way tie myself.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:01 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)

Three Weeks to Go
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There are 21 days left in the season, and the AL contenders have 19 or 20 games left. As the league heads for the wire, six teams are competing for four playoff spots.

The White Sox were the sure thing in August and are still the most likely team to make the post season. It's not that they are playing badly; their four game losing streak was preceded by a seven game winning streak. They've been a .500 team since August 1 while the Indians have the best record in the majors. The Indians gained 1 1/2 games per week during that time. At that rate, they still fall one game short of capturing the division.

The Yankees and Red Sox have the best schedules of the six teams. The Yankees stay in the division the rest of the year. While the Blue Jays, Orioles and Devil Rays look easy, New York has a losing record against the AL East this year. The main difference between the Boston and New York schedules is the Red Sox have to play four against the Oakland Athletics next weekend, while the only contender the Yankees play down the road are the Red Sox to end the season.

Oakland is going to have the toughest time reaching the post season. Their schedule pits them against Cleveland, Boston, Minnesota and the Angels. The next seven games are make or break for the Athletics as they play three vs. the Indians and four vs the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the Angels face Seattle and Detroit. It's a golden opportunity for LAnaheim.

Right now, the White Sox and Angels look good for division wins. Oakland faces the toughest schedule, and with their poor play lately are likely to finish sixth in this race. With their seemingly easy schedule, the Yankees could move past both Cleveland and Boston, leaving those two cities vying for the wild card. However, I believe Boston and Cleveland right now are better teams than New York, so I'm going with Boston for the Eastern win and Cleveland for the Wild Card.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

September 11, 2005

Hanging In
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With the Brewers, Cubs and Mets all winning this afternoon, the three teams are tied at 1-game under .500 and 5 1/2 games back in the wild card race. The Cubs are on a bit of tear, going 8-2 over their last ten, outscoring their opponents 43-26. My thought last week was that once the Astros got by the Marlins, they could depend on the Eastern teams beating up each other. Now they have a challenge from their own division as well. It should make for a fun three weeks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

NL Tightens More
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The wild looking Derrick Turnbow pitches a perfect ninth to send the Astros to a 4-2 defeat. With Florida defeated by the Phillies, Houston stays in first in the Wild Card race. Philadephia is now just 1 1/2 back as Florida and Houston open a four game series tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:45 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Streaking Tribe
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The Indians won their sixth in a row last night, effectively knocking Minnesota out of contention and taking control of the AL Wild Card race. They lead both New York and Oakland by 1 1/2 games. They're also 6 1/2 games behind the White Sox. Last night, at the start of the broadcast, the Cleveland announcers were pointing out that with six games left against Chicago the Indians still have a shot at the division.

This is a huge change from 2004. Last season, the Indians closed to within a game of the Twins on 8/14, then embarked on a nine game losing streak that quickly took them out of contention. Through that same date this season, the Tribe trailed the Whit Sox by 12 1/2 games. Their record is 18-6 since that point, the best in the majors.

This Indians haven't been lighting up the score board that much during this six game streak. They've outscored their opponents 27-11. It's the pitching that's been superb. The starters allowed just one home run in this stretch and posted a 1.28 ERA.

And while Cleveland isn't scoring all that many runs, they are powering the ball. The Indians hit 13 home runs in these six games, account for 2/3 of their runs scored. Great pitching and power hitting. Earl Weaver would be proud.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

September 09, 2005

Pondering the Probabilities
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Earlier today I jumped off the Giants' bandwagon and some comments agreed that San Diego wrapped up the NL West. But what is the probability of San Diego winning the division at this point. Since the Dodgers and Giants have the same record, it doesn't matter which one we use for the calculation.

The chance of the Giants catching the Padres in 23 games is the sum of the probabilities of San Diego winning X of games * the probability of San Francisco winning at least X+7 games, where X ranges from 0 to 16. (SD's magic number is 17). When I do this calculation, it turns out that either the Giants or Dodgers has a 1.14 percent chance of catching the Padres, or about 1 in 88. Those are long odds, but not horribly long.

The other thing that bothers me is independence. Since the Dodgers have six games against the Padres and the Giants seven, the wins and losses aren't all independent events. Given that, the odds are probably a bit better than 1 in 88. So it's a tough outcome to achieve, but certainly not an impossible one.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Off the Giants Bandwagon
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That didn't last long. The Giants August star Noah Lowry was touched by the Cubs for five runs, sending San Francisco to their third straight defeat and dropping them seven games behind the victorious Padres. Barry Bonds did not play last night. I wonder how much his not returning hurt the team. There was hype he'd play Tuesday, and the Giants haven't won since that speculation started.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

September 07, 2005

Götterdämmerung
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Billy Wagner is upset about losing to the Astros again. He used the right philosophy last night, it just didn't work out for him:

Philadelphia Phillies closer Billy Wagner had no concern about Astros pinch runner Eric Bruntlett in the ninth inning Tuesday night. His focus was on Jason Lane, the batter trying to hand him the defeat he dreads most.

Unfortunately for the former Astros closer, Wagner couldn't put away Lane after Bruntlett stole second and third bases.

Lane ripped an RBI single to left field, breaking a tie and rewarding Astros righthander Roy Oswalt with a 2-1 victory at Citizens Bank Park.

The Astros tried the same thing later in the inning, but the runner was thrown out on the attempt to go to third. Again, if Wagner strikes out Lane, then the runner doesn't matter.

Wagner's sour grapes don't fit well, however:

"That's something that I was frustrated about. The last team I want to get beat by is Houston. They traded me. It's not (anything against) the actual guys; it's just that organization."

The Astros, who will try to complete a three-game sweep tonight, have not lost to the Phillies since May 18, 2003.

From the Astros point of view, this looks like a good trade. Billy didn't face his former team until the last two games, showing that if you can't get a lead, the closer doesn't do you much good.

The schedule maker did a good job this year, as Houston has four games next week with the new second place team in the wild card race, the Marlins. They're not backing into this thing all by playing weak Central Clubs. They're going to need to beat two close competitors down the stretch, and so far they're doing just that.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:30 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

September 05, 2005

Two for 2-0
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Two-nothing was the magic score in the AL Wild Card race today as the Indians picked up a 2-0 victory over the Tigers and the Athletics lost 2-0 to the Mariners to move the contenders into a tie, 1 1/2 games behind the Yankees.

The Athletics offense scored 0 runs in three of it's last five games. They are 2-5 in their last seven games, scoring 18 runs over that time, but 12 in one game.

The Indians haven't been setting the world on fire with their offense either. Over their last five games, they've scored just 18 runs. Luckily, they've allowed 15 for a 2-3 record.

I like both of these teams and am rooting for them to make the playoffs. But they need to start hitting the ball to complement their good pitching.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:39 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

September 04, 2005

Five Way Race
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It really looks like the NL Wild Card is going for the five-way tie. The top three teams all lost today, while Washington and New York won to each pick up a game on the pack. Two and a half games separate the bunch.

It was the Loaiza-Wilson show in Washington this afternoon. Esteban shutdown the Phillies with eleven strikeouts over eight innings. That matches his season high, also against the Phllies. Wilson had three-quarters of a cycle, just missing the triple. He drove in 3 and scored two with a single, double and home run.

Jae Seo pitched another good game for the Mets, allowing the Marlins just one run over seven innings. He struck out six and walked two. Kaz Matsui had an unusual good day, belting out three hits including a triple and scoring three runs. Burnett had another poor outing for the Marlins. In their last 12 games, the Marlins starters have a 5.45 ERA. Florida has a lot of complete games this year; I wonder if the staff is tired? Take Dontrelle Willis out of that mix and it's even worse.

Jason Marquis handled the Astros today, allowing just one run as he threw a complete game five-hitter. He was extremely efficient, throwing just 98 pitches, 71 for strikes. His only mistake was a home run ball to Lance Berkman.

So Philadelphia still leads the Wild Card by 1/2 game over Houston and Flordia. The Nationals are 2 games back with the Mets 2 1/2. It's going to be a fun four weeks.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:43 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

September 03, 2005

AL Races
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Another cool tie scenario is shaping up in the American League. We have a shot at a four team tie with LAnaheim and Oakland tied for the AL West title, while New York and Cleveland also finish with the same record. I believe the way the tie breaker works in that case is that Oakland and LAnaheim play a game for the division championship. Then the loser goes into the wild card pool, and there's a two day playoff for the wild card.

Oakland and LAnaheim would flip for home field in the division playoff. Once a winner is determined, the three teams left are assigned the letter A, B or C. Team A gets to play game 1 at home vs. Team B, and the winner plays at home vs. Team C. The team with the best head-to-head record in the group gets to choose to be A, B or C. As things stand right now, that would be the Angels if they were in the group or the Yankees if Oakland is in the group. I assume most teams would chose to be Team C, but a team with a great home field advantage might chose A. The team with the 2nd best head-to-head record selects next, and will almost always be team A. That's Cleveland if Oakland is involved or NY if LA is involved. The remaing team is certainly to be assigned B.

The best game in this group today is Cleveland at Minnesota. Kevin Millwood faces Johan Santana. The two pitchers have nearly identical ERAs; 3.18 for Millwood, 3.15 for Santana. What's interesting is that Santana beats Millwood handily on major pitching catergories; K per 9, BB per 9, home runs per 9. But Millwood's been tough with men in scoring position, allowing a .185 batting average with .259 for Santana. If either of these pitchers received more run support we'd be talking about a three way race for the Cy Young award in the American League.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:25 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

August 28, 2005

Breaking Away
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Devon Young sends me a page with updated division standings since the All-Star break. The Devil Rays, Reds and Rockies are all at the top. It just goes to show that the first half of the season is just as important as the second half.

Note too that the standings since the break in the NL West is reversed from the overall standings in the NL West. This chart also makes it clear how far Washington has fallen, and the evenness of the NL East.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:13 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

August 23, 2005

Burying the Blue Jays
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Felix Escalona drives in the game winning run with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth to give the Yankees a 5-4 victory over the Blue Jays. That puts Toronto 6 1/2 games behind New York in the wild card race. The pressure is on the Blue Jays now to take the last two games of this series or fall out of the race for the playoffs. They've lost a great opportunity to gain ground on one of the wild card leaders.

The Indians put together a come back win of their own, and with the Athletics losing to Detroit, the Yankees and Indians are atop the AL Wild Card race. The Yankees lead by percentage points.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:29 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

August 22, 2005

Three Way Tie
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The AL action is over for the night, with the Yankees and Indians both winning. That puts the Athletics, Yankees and Indians in a virtual tie for the AL Wild Card lead. The Indians have played two more games, so they are one game down in the AFILC. Both the Yankees and Indians have three games left with Oakland, but New York and Cleveland do not play each other down the stretch.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

August 21, 2005

Swept by the Tigers
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The Toronto Blue Jays were in a great position to make a run at the wild card with a number of upcoming series vs. teams ahead of them. I don't know what they expected from the Tigers, but Detroit finished off a sweep of the Blue Jays in grand fashion, beating the lone Canandian team 17-6. For the series, the Jays were outscored 29-13. Rather than gaining on the Athletics, Toronto is now just 2 1/2 games ahead of Detroit.

It was a good weekend for the Tigers where Alan Trammell is under fire.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

August 17, 2005

Tightening Wild Card Races
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The top three teams in the AL Wild card race all lost today, with Oakland, New York and Cleveland all going down to defeat. The Athletics have cooled off, losing four in a row. The Yankees are now 4-9 vs. Tampa Bay. Cleveland was shut out by one of the worst pitching staffs in the AL.

It's good news for Minnesota and Toronto. Johan Santana appears to have found his groove again as the Twins are shutting out Chicago 5-0 in the 9th. Santana has 10 K and just 1 walk through eight innings. The Blue Jays scored first vs. the Angels and have a 1-0 lead in the middle of the first. Both those teams can pull within 3 1/2 games of the wild card lead with a victory.

In the NL, Carlos Zambrano out-pitched Roy Oswalt and Jon Lieber picked up a win for Philadelphia to put the Astros and Phillies in a tie for the wild card lead. Washington is just 1/2 game back. Florida and the Mets also gained with wins, meaning 2 1/2 games separate the top five teams. It's shaping up to be an exciting last six weeks of the season.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:20 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

August 08, 2005

Looking Ahead
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BBTN Extra takes a look at important series coming up in September (scroll down to Beyond Tonight).

The Yankees still have nine games left with the Devil Rays. You can look at this as a good thing or a bad thing. The Yankees have lost seven of 10 to the Devil Rays this season, and their pitchers sport a 7.03 ERA against the Devil Rays.

This page changes every day, so the link won't lead to the same stories after tonight's show.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Looking Ahead
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BBTN Extra takes a look at important series coming up in September (scroll down to Beyond Tonight).

The Yankees still have nine games left with the Devil Rays. You can look at this as a good thing or a bad thing. The Yankees have lost seven of 10 to the Devil Rays this season, and their pitchers sport a 7.03 ERA against the Devil Rays.

This page changes every day, so the link won't lead to the same stories after tonight's show.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

August 07, 2005

Oakland in First
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The Athletics caught the Angels last night for first place in the AL West. Since both teams have a better record than the Red Sox right now, a tie is broken by the two team's head-to-head record, which the Athletics currently lead 5-4.

It's been an interesting run for the Athletics. On May 29th, they were 17-32 and trailed the 30-20 Angels by 12 1/2 games. The next day the A's started their climb to the top, but the Angels gave little ground. On July 6th, the Angels won and Oakland lost, and a 24-10 run by the A's moved them only two games closer to LAnaheim. The Angels had gone 22-12 in the same stretch.

Then the tables turned. Oakland continued their hot streak, going 22-5 starting July 7th, and LAnaheim dove to 11-15. (This should give hope to any team that's on the fringe of a race right now.) What happened? The offense is bad. Players who are getting on base aren't hitting for power, and players who are hitting for power aren't getting on base. And even the players who are doing one or the other aren't doing it that well. They've managed just 3.7 runs per game.

While the bullpen is fine, the starters apart from Lackey are mediocre at best during this time. Still, most teams would take that staff and their 4.4 runs allowed per game. For the season, the Angels have allowed 4.0 runs per game and scored 4.6. Clearly, it's the offense that's to blame for the team's slide.

Is it going to get better? Age appears to have finally caught up to Steve Finley. Garrett Anderson is 33. His power dropped last year and his OBA this season. Erstad plays a power position without power. The one offensive move I'd try to make with this team is to jettison Finely and move Erstad back to center. Then find a power hitter to play first. If they have a decent farm system, there should be one lurking in the minors.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 30, 2005

West Coast Roundup
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It's happened. The Padres lost 8-3 to the Cincinnati Reds last night. They now lead the division, but are one-game under .500. Early in the season, the Padres banked on their starters going five decent innings, and the bullpen finishing the game. Now, the Padres are getting nothing from their starters. Lawrence gave up seven runs in 5 1/3 last night. The Reds had no problems with the dimensions of PETCO as Dunn hit two homers and Encarnacion added a solo shot.

The Dodgers and Giants both gained ground. The Giants came back from a 5-2 deficit, thanks to a sparkling job by the bullpen. Relievers went 5 1/3 innings, giving up just one run and striking out seven as San Francisco picked up a 7-6 victory over the Brewers.

The Giants are now just 5 1/2 games back of the Padres. The way this division is working out, a Barry Bonds return might actually help them. Maybe Barry can get a shot at the World Series this year after all.

The Dodgers are just four games behind San Diego now. The injuries don't seem to have hurt the Cardinals that much, as they scored five runs last night. But the Dodgers got to the seemingly invincible Matt Morris. The Cardinals tied the game at five in the sixth inning, but Morris gave up a walk, single and double in the seventh to plate two more for the Dodgers and seal the victory.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 29, 2005

Yankees and Red Sox Down the Stretch
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The Baseball Crank posts an interesting study showing how the Yankees and Red Sox do when the two are competing for a division or league race from August first on. Make sure you look at the 1970's.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 28, 2005

Braves Take Control
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The Braves sweep the Nationals, winning another close game 5-4. That makes the Braves lead in the NL East three games. Francoeur ends the day two for four; he's batting .441 with a .971 slugging percentage. It looks like Frank Robinson's tirade yesterday didn't help enough.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 25, 2005

Devil Rays Close to 18 1/2
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For the second day in a row, the Devil Rays picked up a game on the Red Sox. This time they didn't need any help as Timlin and Schilling combined to turn a one-run lead into a one-run loss in 10 innings. Timlin didn't have a run charged to him, but he did allow one of David Wells bequeathed runners to score. The broadcast said Timlin's allowed 13 of 20 inherited runners to cross the plate. The Red Sox should make him the closer, because they seldom come in with men on base.

Schilling then went 1 2/3 before allowing the winning run to score in the tenth on a double by Huff. Schilling's batting average allowed now stands at .339.

The Devil Rays have won 8 of their last 11. I'm on the band wagon.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 24, 2005

Red Sox Lose, Tampa Bay 19 1/2 Out
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The Devil Rays broke the huge 20 games back psychological barrier today, completing a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles. Now, if they can win all their games the rest of the year, they might have a shot at the division. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Dynamics of a Division Race
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Every so often someone makes a comment to the effect that games late in the year are more important than games early in the year. This is, on it's face, hogwash. A win counts just as much early as it does late. In fact, games won early are game you don't need to win late.

To demonstrate this, let's look at the NL East race, charting team by their winning percentage by month (click on image for full size chart):

What you see are a number of different paths to success or failure. The Braves are taking the slow and steady approach. They are good but not great every month. The Nationals, on the other hand, used one great month to reach the top. The Mets are taking a one step forward, 1/2 step back approach. The Marlins are steadily declining.

April mattered most to the Phillies. Finishing the month in last place, the Phillies have been playing good ball ever since. They have the same record as the Braves since May 1st. But having the same record as the Braves does them no good as the year progresses. No one in the NL East won the division in April, but the Phillies might very well have lost it that month.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

July 23, 2005

Friday Night Winners
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There was further tightening of division and wild card races last night. The big winner in the AL was the Oakland Athletics, who took another game from Texas last night, winning an 11-10 slugfest. Every batter in the game reached base once, with Gary Matthews, Jr. the only player not to get a hit. Neither starter lasted long, and neither bullpen did a good job. The A's ended up with four more hit and one more run. With the Yankees, Orioles and Twins all losing, Oakland finds themselves just 1 1/2 games out of the wild card lead.

The Phillies were the only NL East team to win last night. Chase Utley was 0 for 5 when he came to the plate in the plate in the 11th. His 13th home run of the year proved to be lucky as it gave the Phillies the victory. They move into third place four games behind Washington and Atlanta. The poor play of the Nationals and Braves lately has caused the division to bunch up again. Five and one half games separate the top from the bottom in the NL East.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks continue to gain ground in the NL West. With the Phillies win over San Diego and Los Angeles and Arizona notched victories to each gain a game on the division leader. The Dodgers pounded out 15 hits in route to a 6-5 defeat of the Mets. The Diamondbacks used the same score to win against the Braves. Claduio Vargas turned in seven strong innings while Tim Hudson was hittable and a bit wild. Brian Bruney gave up four runs in the 8th to the Braves to make it close, but Alex Cintron hit the game winner in the 10th, rewarding Lance Cormier with a win for his 1 2/3 scoreless innings of relief.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 21, 2005

Good Day for the Mets
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It was an excellent afternoon for the Mets and their fans. The offense hit, and against one of the best pitchers in the league, Jake Peavy. Kaz Ishii was wild, but didn't give up too many hits. He combined with the bullpen to shutout the Padres 12-0. And the Phillies lost, moving the Mets into third place in the NL East. The Mets sweep the Padres, and San Diego's lead falls to 4 1/2 games in the NL West.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:24 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

July 17, 2005

NL East a Little Tighter
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The Phillies got to Dontrelle Willis today, scoring eight runs against him in 5 2/3 innings today in route to an 8-4 victory. With Philadelphia taking three out of four from the Marlins and the Nationals losing three out of four to Milwaukee, the Phillies are only 5 1/2 games out of the division lead right now. With the four game split, the Mets and Braves each gained a game on the division leader. Seven games still separate top to bottom in the division, and the Braves and Phillies are in striking distance.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:52 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

July 16, 2005

Burying the Indians
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The Chicago White Sox took the Cleveland Indians out of the AL Central race today. The 7-5 victory drop the Indians 14 games out of first place with 71 games to play. If the Twins lose tonight (and they're down 3-0 in the third) the AL Central is pretty much over.

The White Sox also have a 6 1/2 game lead for home field advantage. This gives Guillen the luxury of coasting to the playoffs. He can afford to rest players with minor injuries. He can afford not to overuse his starters or relievers. The White Sox can concentrate on grooming their team for the playoffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:13 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

July 13, 2005

Wild Indians
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Teepee Talk does a strength of schedule analysis and finds things are looking good for the Indians to win the wild card.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:04 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

July 10, 2005

Mariners Make It Close
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The Seattle Mariners go into the All-Star break on a high note. They not only sweep the Anaheim Angels, they stomp them. In the four game series, Seattle outscores the Angels by an average score of 8-3.

The Mariners are still 12 1/2 back, but Texas and Oakland each have won three in a row, making the AL West a pennant race again.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:10 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)

Good Weekend In Baltimore
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The week didn't go as well as it could have for the Orioles. Playing the Yankees and Red Sox, the O's split six games. But they did take three out of four from Boston over the end of the first half, holding the powerful Red Sox offense to just two runs over the weekend. Chen and Lopez continue to pitch well at Camden Yards. Both have ERAs under 3.00 at home. With the Yankees victory, 2 1/2 games separate the top three teams in the division.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 03, 2005

Tight East
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While a few weeks ago the NL East was the tightest race in baseball, the Nationals are now one of five division leaders with at least a five game lead. The one division that remains close is the AL East. It drew closer today, as the Red Sox and Orioles lost while the Blue Jays and Yankees won. Just five game separate the four teams. In a dvision where the Yankees and Red Sox usually leave the others in the dust, it's a very pleasent result.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

June 24, 2005

First Place Sox
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The Red Sox moved into first place in the AL East tonight, defeating the Phillies 8-0. Tim Wakefield posted an impressive line, allowing just two hits in eight innings. Wakefield even added a single of his own, bringing his batting average this season to .302.

Baltimore scored five runs tonight, but it wasn't enough to over come a 7-1 Atlanta lead. Andruw Jones hit his 22nd homer of the season. He seemed to lose his spring homer swing in April, but he hit 9 in May and now 10 in June. He's hitting for power just when the Braves need him most.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:54 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

June 06, 2005

Capital Year
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As Adam Villani points out in the comments to this post, if the playoffs started today, the Washington Nationals and the two team formerly known as the Senators would all make the playeroffs. If Washington ends up playing either Texas or Minnesota in the World Series, I wonder if they'll do a turn back the clock day and have the AL team wear an old Washington Senators uniform for one of the games?

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

May 31, 2005

Closer and Closer
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The Nationals beat the other NL East first place team, topping the Atlanta Braves 5-4. It was a harrowing ninth inning for Chad Cordero, who gave up three hits, including a homer to Julio Franco. He induced the last two outs with men on 1st and 3rd.

With the Phillies getting a good start from Randy Wolf, their win over the Giants brings all five teams within four games of the division lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:58 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

May 14, 2005

Six In a Row
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It was a good night for Yankees fans on Friday.

• They picked up their sixth win in a row.
• Mike Mussina pitched well.
• Giambi got a hit.
• Baltimore, Boston and Toronto all lost.

Tino Martinez's home run streak did end, however. The Yankees, after losing 3 of 4 to the Devil Rays, are now playing like a great team, crushing the weak teams in the league. They've outscored their opponents 44-20 during the six games. Five and a half games now separate the top four teams in the AL East.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:55 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (1)

March 09, 2005

Division Analysis
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The Baseball Crank is starting his series on using Established Win Share Levels to handicap the division races. Today, it's the AL East.

Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive during March. Click here for details.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:06 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

January 31, 2005

Rearranging the Divisions
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Baseball Think Factory links to an article in which Jim Bowden suggests that divisions should be arranged by revenue so that more teams have a shot at the post season.

It's not really a bad idea, although revenue shouldn't be the standard. There are low revenue teams that do win, after all. I like the way the NFL picks interdivision opponents based on the previous season's records. So a bad team that gets suddenly good has an easy schedule to plow through.

I suggested something along these lines for baseball last summer. The divisions would rearrange every season based on the previous season's record. The best teams would be thrown together, the worst teams would be thrown together and that would give everyone a shot at the playoffs. Sometimes you just have to mix the gene pool.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:10 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack (0)

October 03, 2004

Astros Win
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Somehow, this post got lost, but congratulations to the Astros for winning the NL Wild Card! Lidge struck out Miles to end the game. It's the 2nd year in a row that a managerial replacement has led to a wild card berth. The Astros have to hope they do as well as the 2003 Marlins. Of course, if they can just make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs, it will be a major team milestone.

Posted by StatsGuru at 05:34 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

Won or Lost
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There have been a number of comments on this post about the Dodgers winning the West yesterday. The argument seems to be, "Did the Dodgers win the game, or did the Giants lose the game?" I'm coming down on the side of the Dodgers winning for this reason; there were three walks issued in the inning. Now some would blame the Giants pitchers for that, and indeed they shoulder some of the blame. But there are many hitters in the major leagues who would not have drawn walks in those situations. They would have hacked at pitches out of the strike zone and made the Giants pitchers look good. Having players who were willing to take those pitches is how the Dodgers won the game. Choi especially was impressive. There are any number of players who would have been swinging for the fences from the on-deck circle in that situation. But he didn't get a pitch to hit, drew the walk, drove in a run, and put the Dodgers in a better situation to win. They earned the victory.

Update: The Giants post-mortem can be found here.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:48 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

October 02, 2004

'Stros in Charge
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The Astros win 9-3 and are now in control of the NL Wild Card race. If they win tomorrow, the race is over. Even if they lose, the worst they can do is another shot at the Giants on Monday. It's been an impressive run for Houston. One more win or a San Francisco loss is all they need. Clemens will try to win the clincher tomorrow.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 PM | TrackBack (0)

Grand Win
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Steve Finley hits a grand slam to end the game and end the Giants hope of a western division crown. Congratulations to the Dodgers on the victory in both the game and the division. Finley makes the mid-season trading look really good. And while Beane's team isn't in the post-season, two of his disciples are. The Dodgers now wait to see if they play St.Louis or Atlanta in the first round.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:46 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)

Angels Win!
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Percival gets Byrnes to fly out to DaVanon (who gets all three put outs in the inning) to earn their first AL West crown in 18 years. Congratulations to the Angels on a great season and a terrific comeback.

I'm very happy for Arte Moreno. Earlier this year I compared him favorably to George Steinbrenner. His team played like the Yankees down the stretch, and his big free agent signing was a big reason behind the push to first. A great signing, and a terrific finish to the season.

The Athletics loss will bring out the Moneyball critics. Let me note that the difference in win shares between Tejada and Crosby is 12, or four wins. Four wins gives the A's the division.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:23 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)

96 in a Row
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John Smoltz strikes out Garciaparra and Alou to end the game and the Cubs season. As in every season since 1909, the Cubs say, "Wait until next year."

This should have been an easy year for the Cubs to reach the post season. But injuries limited contributions from Prior, Wood and Sosa, the three players who should have carried this team. There were no botched foul balls this season; the defeat is clearly at the feet of the players, manager and front office.

Posted by StatsGuru at 04:49 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)

Heaven's Gate
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The Angels left the Athletics with a Halo last night, winning in a blowout 10-0. Bartolo Colon earned his season salary last night, shutting down Oakland for 7 innings on 3 hits, no walks and six strikeouts. The biggest embarassment for the A's, however, had to be Blanton allowing a grand slam HR to Alfredo Amezaga, a player with a career .314 slugging percentage.

The Big Cat also homered, coming in a PH-DH late in the game. It was the 399th of his career. I'm sure if the Angels wrap it up today, or if there is another blowout, Andres will have a shot at 400.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:40 AM | TrackBack (0)

Goodbye San Diego
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The Padres went out with a win, but they did not receive any help from Houston and San Francisco, so the season is over in San Diego. Nothing to complain about in southern California, however. The Padres inagural year in their new stadium was a ringing success. They've improved by at least 23 games and sport the NL ERA champ. With a new ballpark and a winning team, the future looks bright for baseball in San Diego.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:33 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

October 01, 2004

Dodger Strategy
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Los Angeles finds itself in an interesting situation. It possible that by winning the West, they knock the Giants out of the wild card race. But if that happens, they have to face the Cardinals in the first round. So let's say the Dodgers win tonight, clinching the West. Do they then start the B team against the Giants so SF is more likely to win the last two games? I'm not talking about throwing games. I'm talking about starting a team that isn't that good, and maybe not being aggressive managing. This is one of the potential problems with the current system; every once in a while, a situation arises where it could be productive for your team to lose. I don't think it will happen, but with the current playoff system you can imagine it.

I'd really like to see them go to 8 four team divisions at some point, and have 8 division winners go into a playoff. This situation would be eliminated at that point.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:11 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)

Four Way Tie
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I've updated this post from earlier with the possibility of a four way tie for the NL wild card. It's highly unlikely that it will happen, but we have to consider the possibility.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:54 PM | TrackBack (0)

Do One Thing Well
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It went down to the wire in LA last night, and the hero turned out to be the backup catcher, David Ross. While Ross is only slugging .298 this year, he hit the game winning two-run homer in the 11th to give the Dodgers a victory to reduce their magic number to 1. Ross is not a good hitter, but he can hit the long ball. For his career, he's hit a HR every 18.4 AB; that's really not a bad ratio. Over 600 AB, that's 32 HR. If you're going to have one offensive strength, being able to drive the ball out of the park is a good one.

The Giants win 4-1, eliminating the Padres and staying alive for the NL West title. SF is also tied for the wild card with the Astros. The four team tie scenario is gone, but we do have two chances for a three way tie. If the Giants and the Astros both sweep this weekend, the Dodgers, Giants and Astros all finish 92-70. In that situation, the Dodgers and Giants playoff for the division title, then the loser plays the Astros for the wild card.

The other possibility is that the Cubs play one game better than both the Giants and Astros. In that case, we have a three-way wild card tie. In this case, the teams are seeded as follows, based on their 3-way head-to-head records:

1. Giants (8-4)


2. Cubs (12-13)


3. Astros (11-14)

If you label the teams A, B and C, team A plays at B on day 1, and the winner hosts team C on day 2. The Giants get to choose if they want to be team A, B or C. Obviously, they don't choose A. The choice comes down to the chance of playing two home games, or winning just one on the road. The Giants don't have a big home-field advantage, so I would assume they would choose to be team C. The Cubs then get to choose A or B, and it's a no brainer at that point to choose to be the home team. So, in a three way tie for the WC, the Astros would play the Cubs at Wrigley on Monday, and the Giants would play the winner on Tuesday.

It's going to be a fun weekend.

Correction: As a reader points out, the Padres are not eliminated from the wild card yet. Sorry about that. The odds of them reaching a tie are very slim. The odds are very small that both San Francisco and Houston would lose all of their games this weekend, especially with Houston playing Colorado. But yes, there is the possibility of a four way wild card tie. In that case, the four way head-to-head favors SD. The teams would be seeded based on the four way head-to-head records:

1. San Diego (18-13)


2. Chicago (16-15)


3. San Francisco (15-16)


4. Houston (13-18)

Houston would play at SD, SF at Chicago on Day 1. The winners would meet at the ballpark of the higher seed on day 2.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:17 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)

September 30, 2004

Glaused Over
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Troy Glaus' two-run homer in the top of the 11th put the Angels in control of the AL West race with four games to play. Glaus hasn't hit much since returning from the DL in late August (20/88, .227) but he has supplied power, hitting seven HR and three doubles to give him a .500 slugging percentage. With the Athletics losing last night, the Angels are up 1 game.

Rich Harden pitched well last night, but you have to wonder about having him continue after getting Suzuki in the 8th. Harden entered the inning with 106 pitches thrown; Ichiro worked a 12 pitch AB, fouling off eight pitches and finally grounding out on a 3-2 count. The next two batters produced hits, which finally chased Harden. And although Rincon got his one batter, Mercir could not hold the lead. One could argue that Ichrio won the game with his long, tiring out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:27 AM | TrackBack (0)

Wild West, Wild Card
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The races got a little more interesting yesterday, and Houston and San Diego won and the other contenders lost. The Padres are out of the NL West race, so their only hope is to win today and hope that the other WC contenders lose over the weekend. The Padres have drawn the Diamondbacks as their final opponent, the worst team in the majors. San Diego will need a sweep, and they have the right opponent to make that happen. Still, their chances remain slim.

What's more interesting is the chance of a four-way tie between the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs and Astros. If the Cubs, Giants and Dodgers all win today, weekend sweeps by the Giants, Cubs and Astros set up a three day tournament to determine the NL West Champ (1-game playoff between the Dodgers and Giants) and the wild card (2-game playoff involving the loser of the NL West and Cubs and Astros). I'll admit this juicy scenario is not very likely.

However, if the Cubs and Giants both win today, a three way wild card playoff becomes more likely. You just need the three teams to have the same record over the weekend, winning or losing. However, the weekend favors the Astros who play the Rockies at home. The Cubs get Atlanta. Depending on tonight's LA game, the Braves may still be playing for home field in the first round. And the Giants, of course, face the Dodgers.

And yes, there's the chance of a four-way tie for the wild card, but that's only a two-day playoff, and doesn't involve the interesting choices of three way tie.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:56 AM | TrackBack (0)

September 29, 2004

Blog Reader?
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Michael Kay, the Yankees announcer, just talked about the results of the Yankees and Twins beating each other. Although he didn't use the word paradox, it sounded a lot like this post. I wonder if someone at YES reads this blog?

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

September 28, 2004

Pulling Close
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The Astros have closed to within 1/2 game of the Cubs with a 2-1 win over the Cardinals. Backe pitched well enough through five, only allowing 1 run on a homer by Larry Walker. St. Louis is not taking it easy on the Astros, having the big four all in the lineup tonight. The Astros bullpen pitched four excellent innings, allowing just two hits while striking out five.

All of the wild card teams are finishing strong, which is helping to make this race so interesting. No one has been able to make a significant move on anyone else.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:02 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)

Wild Race
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The Cubs made the NL Wild Card race more interesting by losing to the Reds 8-3. Maddux gave up a third two-run homer in the game. Houston leads 2-1 in the top of the ninth, and San Diego has an early lead on San Francisco. The multiple tie scenario is still intact!

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:51 PM | TrackBack (0)

September 27, 2004

Red Sox Win
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Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox who won a playoff berth tonight with a 7-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. They also keep their hopes alive of winning the AL East, picking up half a game on the idle Yankees.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:18 PM | TrackBack (0)

The Red Sox and the Division
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Sam Pratt looks at the ways the Red Sox can win the division. His conclusion:

We wouldn't be Sox fans if we weren't hoping against hope for a miracle, setting ourselves up for heartache again. Probably it would be smarter to concede once the wildcard is a lock, and focus on getting the team in shape for the playoffs.

But that would require management that thinks with its head, not its foolish heart.

I disagree. If the Sox win the division, they win home field for the playoffs. This chart shows you why that is important.

Red Sox 2004	Home	Road
Record	55-26	38-36
Runs Per Game	6.4	5.2
ERA	4.07	4.25

While unlucky, the Sox have not been as good on road as they've been at home. To me, the extra games at home are worth pulling out all the stops to attempt to win the division.

Posted by StatsGuru at 06:11 PM | TrackBack (0)

September 26, 2004

By the Skin of their Teeth
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The Phillies are hanging on by a thread. They barely got by the Expos today on a great pitching performance by Lidle. A 2-1 victory, coupled with a Cubs defeat, means that the Phillies can still win the wild card if they win all of their remaining games. Of course, the Giants, Astros and Padres would need to lose a lot of their remaning games also, but hope springs eternal!

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:22 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Accordian Races
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Two days into the big weekend series, and the races have not changed since Friday morning. Each team in contention has gone 1-1 so far with the Red Sox, Angels, Rangers and Giants winning yesterday after the Yankees, Athletics, Cubs, Astros and Dodgers won on Friday. This sort of back and forth only benefits the leaders.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 AM | TrackBack (0)

September 25, 2004

Bottom of the Ninth
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Noticing the final 3-2 score (in the Dodgers favor) of the Dodgers-Giants game this morning, I decided to watch the ninth inning without reading about it first. Basically, I wanted to see if Gagne had a chance to face Bonds, and how he handled it.

I thought I wasn't going to see that matchup. Gagne was facing the top of the order, and Bonds bats fourth. My thought was that this is the exact reason you want Bonds batting third. If the Giants go 1-2-3 (likely against Gagne), it doesn't look good to have Bonds on deck. But after getting the first two batters, Gagne walks Pedro Feliz (.301 OBA) on four pitches! The SF announcers described Tracy as "throwing up in the dugout." So now what do you do? Do you have the best closer in the game (I know, because my readers have told me) pitch to the best hitter in the game? No, you intentionally walk him and put the tying run in scoring position! Snow pinch hits for Alfonzo, and Snow walks on four pitches! That's twelve balls in a row from Gagne. (I would have been so mad after the Feliz walk that I would have lifted him for a lefty at that point.) But Gagne stays in the face Torrealba. Gagne finally throws a strike to get ahead in the count, but Yorvit does get a pitch he can drive. Fortunately for the Dodgers, it was right at the left fielder.

Shawn Green hit a 2-run HR to tie the game last night making the Dodgers happy he didn't take the night off. He won't play today. The Dodgers magic number is 7 to win the division.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:01 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Braves Win Division
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Congratulations to the Atlanta Braves on clinching the NL East last night. It's an amazing organization. No one does a better job of tweaking weaknesses and picking up quality players than John Schuerholz. I sure thought they were out of contention coming into the season. Couple that with injuries to Chipper Jones and Marcus Giles, it difficult to believe they could have made the playoffs, let alone finish with home field for the first round (they lead by 1 1/2 games). But Drew and Estrada proved to be the equals of Sheffield and Lopez, and Julio "Iron Man" Franco continues to amaze in his mid 40's. And major Kudos to Leo Mazzone for the season of Jaret Wright and John Thomson. I don't know how many people get into the Hall of Fame for coaching (as opposing to managing), but Leo Mazzone has earned a spot.

The question, as it always is for the Braves, can they take the next step and win the series?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:38 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

September 23, 2004

NL West/Wild Card
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San Diego, out of the race themselves are certainly playing the spoiler well. Jake Peavy's performance last night temporarily puts him in the NL ERA lead. The Dodgers have lost seven of their last 10, five of those to the Padres, and have been outscored 62-42. The Dodgers and Giants will finish the season face to face, six games over two weekends to try to settle the NL West.

This helps the Cubs greatly. If the Cubs keep winning, either the Giants knock the Dodgers out, the Dodgers knock the Giants out, or the two split and the Cubs pass both for the wild card. There is, of course, the big monkey wrench scenario, where the Dodgers, Giants and Cubs all end up with the same record. That requires two days of playoffs; one to determine the NL West champ, with the loser then playing the Cubs for the wild card. I think it's unlikely; the Cubs have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way with 8 of their last 11 against bad teams. If the Cubs go 7-4 the rest of the way, I don't think Houston will catch them, and the Dodgers playing the Giants will in one way or another take care of the competition.

P.S. As I'm not prepared to count Houston out, there is the extreme monkey wrench scenario, where four teams are tied for the division and wild card. That requires three days of playoffs!

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:29 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)

AL West Race
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The Oakland Athletics have handed the Anaheim Angels the division on a platter, and the Angels have refused the offer. Playing seven games against one of the weakest teams in the leauge, the Angels lose 4 of those games. They should have won six, and they should be in first place this morning. Meanwhile, the Rangers have won four of their six games with Oakland, and a win today ties them with Anaheim and puts both teams 2 games back of the A's. It's a must win game for the Rangers. Two games back with ten to go the schedule favors the Rangers. They get six against the Mariners, while Anaheim and Oakland battle six times. The Rangers are without Soriano and part of their bullpen, however.

Meanwhile, the Twins have moved ahead of Oakland for 2nd best record in the AL. A Yankees win today guarantees NY a playoff spot. With the AL East title still in play, it's much too early to predict what the first round of the playoffs will look like.

Postscript: There's a possibility of a Boston-Texas playoff round. Since political reports use baseball jargon to describe campaigns, will baseball commentators start using political jargon to describe this series?

• Arguing with the ump - Protesting


• Throwing out base stealers - Reducing Crime


• Avoiding the bunt - Conservative strategies


• Southpaws - Leftwingers


• Switch hitters - Flip-floppers


• Texas Bullpen - Furloughed criminals


• Balks - Dirty tricks

Feel free to suggest others! We can only hope that Trot Nixon is on the post-season roster. :-)

Correction: In the first sentence of this post I had the Mariners, not the Angels. Thanks for pointing this out. That's what I get for blogging in my pajamas!

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:53 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

September 21, 2004

Big Game Pitcher?
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One of the most important games of the evening is Houston at San Francisco. The Astros trail the Giants by 1 game in the NL Wild Card race, yet they have decided to start Carlos Hernandez against Bonds and company. Couldn't they have started Hernandez Sunday and let Clemens pitch today on long rest? It looks like they're skipping Backe to move Oswalt up for tomorrow. This has obviously been an important series on the horizon for a while. Why didn't Garner arrange his rotation better?

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:06 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Not Wild About the Wild Card
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Joe Sheehan pens an article at BP researching how much the wild card has added (or subtracted) from interestng division races.

Having done this research, I'm left with a somewhat empty feeling. I think the wild card has killed more exciting races than it's created, and I'm comfortable that the evidence supports that. But because all those "neutral" seasons are creating more hope and faith--even if the localities don't care all that much--MLB sees the experiment as a success. MLB doesn't see the things that aren't there, the races between great teams, in much the same way that baseball people often don't see all the outs a low-OBP "RBI man" gets, or the many times caught stealing that reduce the value of Alex Sanchez or Brett Butler.

We're seeing this right now with the Yankees-Red Sox. The games they are playing against each other right now don't matter that much. Both teams are likely to make the playoffs. The wild card has simply pushed the drama into the post season, where it may or may not happen. Last year the two teams met in the ALCS. But there's only a 25% chance in a given year that bitter division rivals will meet in the LCS (given that both make the playoffs). As Sheehan concludes:

I'm fond of saying that the people who hate the DH should probably get over it; it's been 31 years, and nearly every baseball league in the world uses it.

Maybe it's time I took my own advice.

Yep. There will never be another 1978 or 1993.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:31 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)

September 20, 2004

Twins Win
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Congratulations to the Minnesota Twins as they capture the American League Central Division crown! Silva pitched very well; despite recording 0 strikeouts, he only allowed 7 hits. The Twins now have two weeks to get their team in shape for the playoffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:28 PM | TrackBack (0)

Slipping Away
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The Marlins post-season hopes are fading to black. They've started Carl Pavano in game 1 of their makeup doubleheader with the Cubs, and the Cubs are hitting him hard. It's 4-1 Chicago in the bottom of the 2nd. Pavano has allowed six hits, including three doubles so far.

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:44 PM | TrackBack (0)

September 16, 2004

Winning the Easy Ones
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The Angels could learn something from the Giants. Facing off against a much weaker foe, the Giants took three from the offensively weak Brewers, winning today 4-0. They're neck and neck with the Cubs for the wild card, and still have a chance to catch the Dodgers. They won the easy ones. With the Dodgers, Padres and Astros left on the schedule, there won't be anymore of those.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:54 PM | TrackBack (0)

Wasted Opportunity
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The Angels are blowing the AL West race. While the Atheltics are letting the Rangers back in the division hunt, the Angels are not taking adavantage of a .379 team to gain ground. Last night they were shutout by a pitcher with a 5+ ERA, who doesn't strikeout many batters and had allowed 31 HR! When the other two teams you need to defeat are battling each other, you have to earn the easy victories. Of course, I thought they were done a couple of weeks ago. But that included the Rangers, too.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:44 AM | TrackBack (0)

September 15, 2004

Fish Not Biting
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It was a bad day for the Florida Marlins. They returned home to Miami to be swept by the Montreal Expos, 6-2 and 10-4. With the Giants and Cubs winning and the Giants with a good lead, the Marlins will likely lose 1 1/2 games to the top Wild Card teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:54 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

Coin Flips
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The Cubs broadcast just annouced that the result of the playoff coin flips did not favor the Cubs. The Cubs lost home field unless they are tied with the Marlins. If they are tied with any other team for the wild card, the Cubs will be on the road. I'll look for other results.

Update: Here's the article on MLB.com. It looks like the Giants were the big winners.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:37 PM | TrackBack (0)

The Saddest of Possible Words
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William Young reworks a famous poem about the Cubs defense.

These are the saddest of possible words,
A tinker, a bobble, no chance.
Suffering Cubbies whose play's for the birds,
A tinker, a bobble, no chance.,
The heartache of watching the Cubs slowly crumble
Makes mothers and children and grown men mumble.
Bear-Cubs, whose talents grow ever more humble.
A tinker, a bobble, no chance.

I wouldn't say no chance, but he has captured the Cubs defensive play as of late.

Posted by StatsGuru at 02:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

September 13, 2004

Wild West
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With three weeks and 20 games to go, the AL West goes into full division mode. For the remainder of the season, the four teams will shoot it out to see who comes out the division winner. And it looks like whoever wants to make the playoffs from these time zones will need to win the division.

The three contenders each gets to play Seattle; the Angles and Athletics 7 times, the Rangers 6 six time. This may at first appear to be a disadvantage to the Rangers, but it means they get 14 games vs. the Angels and A's, the two teams they need to leap frog to make the post season. Of the three contenders, Anaheim has the best record against the Mariners, but is below .500 against both the Rangers and the A's.

The big matchup tonight has the Rangers in Oakland. The Rangers are starting Juan Dominguez against Tim Hudson. Dominguez is just returning from an injury. The Rangers have their best pitchers going in the last two games of the four game series, Drese and Rogers. Texas can't really afford a split. They need three out of four minimum, then a sweep in Texas next week.

Update: Two commentors think I'm showing an anti-Oakland bias in this post. Maybe you should google this site for Billy Beane. :-) All three organizations have done an excellent job this year, and since I root for good organizations, I don't really care which team wins. Texas has the toughest road right now getting to the playoffs, so I was just pointing that out.

Posted by StatsGuru at 11:26 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

September 11, 2004

Wild Night
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The NL Wild Card race became a lot closer over night. The two leading teams lost, and the four trailing teams (yes, the Phillies have gotten back into the race) all won. Once again, there is the chance for a massive tie at the end of the season. Here's a post from last year that points to the tie-breaker rules.

Update: For anyone who's interested, I blogged this in my pajamas. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:09 AM | TrackBack (0)

September 03, 2004

Wishful Thinking
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I guess I won't be asking John Kerry to guest blog on Baseball Musings. :-)

Posted by StatsGuru at 01:27 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

Lovely Parting Gifts
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We just witnessed three teams fail to put themselves into serious playoff contention, getting swept by teams they need to be able to defeat.

Let's start with the Angels. A few days ago, a comment noted that the Red Sox had not beaten anyone good during their streak. They have now. The Angels were in a position to take the wild card from the Red Sox. Instead, they have put themselves in a hole regarding both the division and the second place reward. Now they have to depend on Boston losing the rest of the way, and the Red Sox have 18 games left against the Mariners, Devil Rays and Orioles. Arte Moreno, you played a good game, and I hope you'll come back to the show. Here's a case of Turtle Wax.

Next is the Texas Rangers. Let's give them a big standing ovation. Showalter and Hart did a tremendous job of improving the defense without losing much offense. But you need to be able to play with the Twins if you are going to go anywhere in the playoffs. I love the Twins organization as much as I love the Athletics front office. They've done an incredible job with no money and no fans. But this isn't an very strong team. (They remind me of last year's A's; okay offense, and a pitching staff that doesn't walk anybody.) But the minimum for making the playoffs is being able to beat the Twins. If you can't defeat this team, you don't have a chance against the Yankees, A's or Red Sox. Wait 'til next year, and here's some Rice-A-Roni to tide you through the winter.

And the Padres. They had the bad luck to run into the St. Louis buzz saw. The road to the World Series is going through the Arch this year, and the Padres simply cannot bop with the Birds. Walker, Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds are the four horsemen of the apocalypse to the rest of the NL, and especially to the Padres this week. It's too early to take the Padres out of the playoff picture, but one suspects the Cardinals would make quick work of them in the NLDS. Don Pardo, give them the home version of our game.

These three teams will be back. The ownership is good, the front office is good, and the field management is good. 2004 wasn't their year, but it looks like many good ones are ahead for these teams.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:13 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

September 01, 2004

Summer of '78
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Twenty-six years ago, I was a die-hard Yankees fan, and the Yankees weren't doing well. They weren't doing badly, they were over .500, but in fourth place in a very strong division. Through games of July 19, they were 14 back and in fourth place. I had a friend who kept asking me if I had given up on the Yankees. When they were 14 back, my only concession to possible defeat was to say, "Yeah, it looks bad."

On that day, if the Red Sox played .500 ball for the rest of the season, the Yankees would need to play .700 ball to catch them. That's exactly what happened. Scroll down on the Baseball Reference page linked above and you'll see the standings for the rest of the year. I'm glad I didn't give up on the Yankees that year. The Red Sox are having a very similar season; they were performing beneath their ability for three months. They're now on fire, more than capable of playing .700 ball the rest of the way. In 1978, the overuse of the starting lineup (Hobson especially) cost the Red Sox down the stretch. The overuse of the Yankees setup men, and injuries to the oldersters may be costing the Yankees now. Red Sox fans can only hope that this stretch runs proves to be as profitable for them as it was the the Yankees of a quarter century ago.

P.S. One of the downsides to the wild card, in my opinion, is that it makes a repeat of the 1978 playoff game almost impossible. Both the Red Sox and Yankees would have to be passed by a wild card team to get a shot at that, and if that happens, it means neither team was playing that well down the stretch. And both teams making the playoffs does not guarantee that they will meet in the playoffs.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:19 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)

August 31, 2004

Scoreboard Watching
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The Red Sox are up 4-0 in the first; the Yankees are down 5-0 in the second. A Sox win and a Yankees loss puts the Red Sox 3 1/2 back going into September.

Update: The Indians have scored 3 runs in each of the first three innings to take a 9-0 lead on the Yankees. Westbrook has not allowed a hit through three innings, and has faced only 9 batters.

Posted by StatsGuru at 07:45 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

June 22, 2004

Gaining Ground
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Three division races moved a little closer last night as the Giants, Angels and Indians all defeated teams ahead in the standings. It was a particularly good night for the Texas Rangers, as Anaheim's defeat of Oakland put the Rangers in first place by percentage points. Just 1/2 game separates the three contenders in the AL West.

The Indians reached the .500 mark with an excellent performance by CC Sabathia and some early power against Scott Schoeneweis. They have three more games against the White Sox, but they don't face the Twins again until 8/20. Maybe Mark Shapiro's prediction was correct, and that series in August could be very important in deciding the AL Central.

The Giants paid the Ransom and Mota let the game go. With two out in the ninth, three Giants reach baase, and Mota gives up the game winning hit to Cody Ransom. Mota's striking out more than 1 per inning, but facing six batters last night he came up empty. The Giants have made up nearly 7 games since the start of play on May 20.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:35 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)

May 24, 2004

In the Race
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We're seven weeks into the season, and all the races are very close. There are three tied divisions, and the biggest first place lead is held by the Red Sox at 1 1/2 games. What's more, only five teams are more tha 6 1/2 games out of first place. Cincinnati and San Diego are in first place. Pittsburgh is in last place, but only 4 1/2 games out, and only two games under .500, and they are playing in a strong division. It's anybody's ballgame this year.

And the fans seem to be loving it. Attendance at this point in the season last year averaged 25,234. This year, it's 29,041. That's almost 4000 fans per game. Let's say that each fanny in the seats puts $20 of profit into the clubs pockets. (I'm being conservative here. I know that's what independent minor league teams makes per fan). So that's about $80,000 more per game than last year. If you give each club 80 home dates, that's $6.4 million more than last year per club. Again, the $20 may be conservation. If it's $50, now you're talking about enough money to buy a superstar next year. It's enough money to keep Beltran on your team. It's enough money to give long term contracts to Young and Blalock, so you can control the cost of arbitration and future free agency. It's enough to keep teams competitive with each other. And as long as the Yankees keep spending, there will be plenty of luxury tax money to help out as well.

And I love all of it. I love the Yankees using all their resources to obtain the players they believe are the best. I love the small market teams realizing that spending isn't the only way to win, and finding ways to compete with young players, cast off but valuable veterans, and a good trade of two. I love it that the Sabremetrics doesn't always work, as evidenced in Toronto this year. That keeps things interesting, that keeps the discussion going, that keeps us asking questions and learning.

Every year I think, "What a great season." Two thousand four is no exception.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:46 AM | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)

May 23, 2004

First Place Reds
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Well, the Reds did it. They brought the Houston Astros into town and sent them packing. The Astros sent their big three, Pettitte, Clemens and Miller to the mound. Pettitte pitched well, but the Reds selectivity forced him to throw 100 pitches in five innings, and the Reds pounded the bullpen. The got to Clemens on Saturday, and despite pitching problems of their own, the offense kept coming, and they won a close one 8-7. And today, Cory Lidle didn't pitch like someone with a 5.24 ERA. He threw strikes, and shut out the Astros with 106 pitches. This was an impressive series by an impressive team, and team that knows how to approach the game. It's going to be a fun race in the NL Central this year.

Posted by StatsGuru at 03:58 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

May 21, 2004

Racing Toward the Top
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The White Sox are off to a 4-0 lead against the Twins and Carlos Silva. (Seems the hitters have finally figured out Carlos.) We'll have a tie for the AL Central if Chicago can maintain this lead.

Posted by StatsGuru at 08:45 PM | TrackBack (0)

February 19, 2004

Cubs vs. Astros
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The Baseball Savant has a lengthy post on how the Maddux signing impacts the NL Central race. He also writes me with this:

I read the other day your "musing" about Maddux and the notion that you need both pitching and offense to win.

I couldn't agree more. I ran the "Expected Performance Values" for the Houston starting 8 and pitching staff and did the same for Chicago. I then figured win shares for each player based on those projections. The Cubs did indeed have a better pitching staff by about 10 win shares, but the Houston offense had a better offense by about 23 win shares giving Houston a +13 net win shares over Chicago. This equates to about 4-5 game lead over Chicago.

What I think is amazing is that last year, according to Pythagorean, Houston was a 7 game better team than Chicago even though they finished 1 game out of the Central and lost.

Now, do you think that if Houston does beat out Chicago for the NL Central, will everyone jump on the pitching bandwagon and say that the additions of Clemens and Pettitte really put Houston over the top seeing how that they were the 2 big additions to Houston and completely ignore the fact that if Houston does beat out Chicago it will probably have more to do with the fact that Kent will have been healthy all season, Berkman should have a true Berkman-like season, Ensburg will get to start everyday, and Oswalt will be healthy? What do you think?

Lots of people will jump on the pitching bandwagon, because the pitching moves were made the headlines over the season. I do wonder however, if they will jump off the "you need a great closer" bandwagon, since Wagner has gone to Philadelphia.

But the Savant points out something else very interesting, and that's how much luck plays into a season. In this case, luck was an eight game swing in the standings. And that should worry Chicago fans, because luck has a way of evening out over time (I believe it's called regression to the mean). Neither of these teams stood pat, however, and both are improved. It should be a great race in the NL Central.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:25 AM | Comments (7) | TrackBack (2)

January 19, 2004

Philly's Hopes
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With the Eagles loss, hopes are now riding on the Phillies:

In the somber silence of the Eagles' green-carpeted locker room, most of the players remained either in the trainer's room or in the shower. But as a few spoke in whispers, a longtime Philadelphian shook his head.

"The Phillies ought to be good," he said.

"But will they be good enough to win it all?" he was asked.

"In this town," he said, "no team ever is."

Seems there's not that much hope.

Posted by StatsGuru at 09:44 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)

July 11, 2003

Making Up the Losses
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With the Boston sweep of Toronto, and the Yankees losing two out of three to Cleveland, the Red Sox made up the two games they lost in NY last weekend. The Yankees now travel to Toronto, while the Red Sox visit Detroit. The Red Sox should have a much eaiser time with the cats than the Yankees with the birds, so it is conceivable that the Red Sox will be in first place at the All-Star break.

Posted by StatsGuru at 10:23 AM | TrackBack (0)