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Baseball Musings Probabilistic Model of GameScores, 1957-2008

PitcherGSWLPredWinPredLossWRatioLRatio
Mark Mulder2031036075.975.1135.7579.85
Andy Pettitte426214126159.7152.2133.9682.79
Darren Oliver228827762.799.7130.8477.26
Bill Lee225977974.686.5130.0591.31
Aaron Sele352144109111.7141.3128.9077.11
Ramon Ortiz210817863.487.3127.7589.38
Charles Nagy297128102101.0114.9126.7388.73
Kenny Rogers474198134156.6184.2126.4372.76
Russ Ortiz2531098286.896.5125.5685.01
Bartolo Colon31314997118.9110.7125.2987.60
Kirk Rueter33612992103.5136.1124.6067.60
Scott McGregor309136104109.2116.3124.5489.41
Jon Garland2551048883.6101.3124.4786.90
Paul Byrd2501018982.198.9123.0990.02
James Baldwin202796964.282.7123.0983.48
David Wells489221144180.0177.8122.7781.01
Scott Erickson364142136117.2149.3121.2091.10
Warren Spahn296156102128.993.1121.07109.56
Lew Burdette2511128792.594.0121.0692.51
Pat Hentgen306126110105.0115.7120.0095.06
Rick Helling234917876.092.2119.7684.60
Larry Gura2611139194.794.2119.3796.58
Mike Mussina536270153226.6171.5119.1689.22
Storm Davis239997783.188.2119.0887.33
Tim Wakefield400168144141.2149.7119.0096.19
Dave Burba234917376.690.7118.7880.52
Bob Purkey2551139295.390.2118.59101.98
Paul Splittorff392163143137.5147.1118.5397.21
Roy Oswalt24112662106.971.1117.8987.23
Mike Hampton334138104117.1125.9117.8482.62
Mike Caldwell308127115108.0117.8117.5697.65
Doc Medich287123102104.9103.4117.3098.64
Bill Swift220837171.188.6116.7280.12
Jaime Navarro30911212196.0129.5116.7293.42
Jamie Moyer584241182207.0216.8116.4183.95
Freddy Garcia26511877101.492.1116.4083.63
Steve Trout236818769.697.1116.3989.63
Roy Halladay25512864110.180.2116.2979.77
Dennis Leonard302143106123.0101.3116.27104.68
Derek Lowe2551088593.192.7115.9991.73
Mike Torrez458183157158.3173.5115.5990.50
Tony Cloninger2471068691.888.7115.5096.94
Mark Buehrle26811986103.094.3115.5091.17
Esteban Loaiza333122112106.1135.0114.9682.99
Jose Lima235819270.5100.4114.9091.61
Jack Morris527251182218.7176.4114.79103.17
Livan Hernandez381147139128.2147.0114.6594.57
Brian Moehler215728662.890.2114.6395.36
Ron Guidry32316789145.796.2114.6192.52
Jeff Suppan366127123110.8149.3114.5882.40
Jack Billingham305128104111.7111.5114.5893.25
Bill Gullickson390162135141.4141.6114.5395.33
Jimmy Key389179112156.4129.2114.4486.69
Tim Hudson30314677127.698.2114.4478.41
Geoff Zahn27010710693.5102.7114.40103.26
Tom Glavine682305203266.8232.2114.3287.42
Rick Sutcliffe392165131144.4142.8114.2491.74
Dave Stewart348153116134.0121.3114.1495.61
Denny Neagle28611986104.3103.6114.1283.01
Matt Morris27611889103.498.7114.0990.18
Vern Law25911586101.389.5113.4996.11
Ross Grimsley29512297107.5107.6113.4790.11
John Lackey206916380.270.2113.4489.74
Jack McDowell27512687111.392.7113.1993.87
Bob Tewksbury27710910196.4104.8113.0596.41
Jimmy Haynes203618854.090.0113.0097.78
Tom Browning30012390109.0109.2112.8182.42
Bob Walk259957784.299.7112.8077.23
Kevin Tapani354143125127.2131.4112.4795.14
Ramon Martinez29713587120.299.0112.3487.86
Kirk McCaskill242959584.891.5112.07103.85
Lary Sorensen235889378.692.7112.03100.28
Mike Flanagan404165133147.4147.6111.9290.09
Milt Wilcox283112106100.3105.1111.72100.85
Todd Stottlemyre339133119119.1124.5111.7195.61
Shane Rawley230868577.088.8111.6895.75
Kelvim Escobar201857376.270.4111.50103.76
John Burkett423163134146.4160.6111.3483.43
Richard Dotson29511111399.8113.3111.2299.71
Jason Bere203716563.983.3111.1378.03
Sidney Ponson2699010581.2112.7110.8793.19
Chris Carpenter232977087.783.6110.6483.73
Shawn Estes2811019391.3112.6110.6282.56
John Candelaria356165101149.2113.9110.5988.70
Reggie Cleveland203817873.374.5110.50104.64
Mike Boddicker309131116118.6108.6110.49106.80
Dan Petry300118104106.8110.3110.4694.27
Dennis Rasmussen235917682.486.1110.3888.26
Steve Blass230977388.180.3110.0590.92
Mike Smithson204748067.580.7109.6899.17
Walt Terrell29410612096.7116.8109.62102.75
Neal Heaton202668460.383.1109.54101.10
Bob Buhl27711695106.096.6109.4798.31
Kevin Millwood344140111128.0121.4109.3991.43
Sterling Hitchcock200707064.078.6109.3189.04
Ted Lilly228897481.582.2109.1690.02
Jack Sanford29212193110.9102.0109.1691.16
Kyle Lohse228777970.692.6109.1285.28
Woody Williams330128109117.4120.5109.0290.47
Dock Ellis317136117124.7108.5109.02107.87
Charlie Leibrandt346137118125.7127.1109.0292.87
Jim Perry447190163174.4154.0108.94105.85
Bobby Jones241898281.894.1108.7687.14
Joe Niekro500201186185.3179.8108.50103.42
Bob Welch462204142188.1152.5108.4593.13
Mike LaCoss243858978.596.6108.3392.09
Shane Reynolds27811195102.598.7108.2696.28
Jon Lieber327126119116.4120.4108.2298.85
Jim Lonborg368150133138.7130.6108.12101.80
Gil Meche211786872.278.2108.0386.93
Moose Haas252988390.792.3108.0389.93
C.C. Sabathia25411773108.480.8107.9190.35
Dave McNally396183119169.6125.1107.8995.11
Jim Maloney26213080120.776.4107.69104.68
Bobby Witt397138156128.2161.3107.6596.70
Brad Radke377148139137.6137.4107.58101.16
Chan Ho Park28011285104.299.5107.5285.44
Ray Herbert215867880.076.2107.52102.37
Dwight Gooden410193111179.8127.8107.3786.82
John Smiley28011998111.194.0107.11104.26
Denny McLain26412889119.579.8107.10111.58
Greg Maddux740355226331.5221.6107.09101.96
Barry Zito28712393114.996.5107.0896.34
Joey Jay200867980.467.8106.94116.47
Jim Bibby239978990.785.1106.93104.55
Wilbur Wood297131120122.897.8106.66122.75
Steve Stone2691058998.597.2106.6491.57
Frank Lary223938487.476.1106.45110.34
Teddy Higuera205946488.365.7106.4097.44
Milt Pappas465201160189.0154.4106.37103.62
Doyle Alexander464179164168.3168.4106.3597.36
Scott Sanderson407157135147.7146.6106.3392.11
Dick Ruthven332121127113.8127.1106.2999.94
Al Leiter382159130149.6129.4106.25100.43
Brian Anderson245798174.6102.4105.9679.07
Frank Viola420176150166.1143.3105.94104.70
Mike Moore440160176151.1170.3105.89103.36
Jim Kaat625260217245.8212.9105.76101.94
Juan Marichal457238140225.1125.8105.72111.28
Bob Forsch422160132151.5153.8105.6185.85
Jim Slaton359127146120.3138.5105.59105.45
Whitey Ford30514975141.286.8105.5486.37
Bruce Kison246977592.286.8105.1686.36
Ken Holtzman410172149163.7140.0105.08106.41
Dennis Martinez562230182218.9193.1105.0594.27
Bruce Hurst359145110138.1125.7104.9987.48
Tim Belcher373143137136.3138.2104.9099.14
Carl Morton242879283.091.6104.88100.47
Chuck Finley467195166186.1157.9104.76105.12
Orel Hershiser466201146191.9152.1104.7295.99
Brad Penny245947589.887.6104.6485.65
Jim Palmer521262148250.6143.9104.55102.87
Bill Wegman216768472.782.3104.48102.01
Mike Cuellar378177124169.4116.0104.46106.91
Ken Hill315117108112.1115.7104.3893.31
Darryl Kile331132117126.5117.5104.3299.60
Dave Goltz26410310198.893.6104.29107.85
Orlando Hernandez211896585.471.3104.2391.13
Jim Abbott2548710883.6100.3104.11107.64
Jeff Weaver2679211388.7105.2103.76107.42
Stan Bahnsen327126129121.4116.6103.75110.64
Tommy John700284228273.7242.0103.7594.23
Mark Gubicza329125131120.6118.6103.68110.47
Bill Monbouquette263104105100.491.3103.55115.02
Bud Black296111106107.2107.5103.5398.61
Dave LaPoint227768173.688.4103.3291.63
Lynn McGlothen201778574.572.9103.31116.58
Rick Wise455179180173.3162.7103.31110.62
Jim Colborn204758572.675.6103.27112.48
Jerry Reuss548212185205.4197.4103.2493.72
John Tudor26311471110.683.1103.0485.49
Brett Tomko260889185.4102.1103.0389.16
Bob Shaw223858182.580.3102.97100.84
Jim Clancy381136160132.3144.4102.77110.81
Terry Mulholland332113126110.0129.4102.7597.40
Pat Dobson279112115109.195.6102.70120.30
Mudcat Grant293114100111.1102.5102.6597.53
Rick Rhoden380150122146.1130.2102.6493.73
Kevin Appier402169136164.7132.5102.60102.67
Pedro Astacio343122122119.0133.2102.4991.60
Nelson Briles27911298109.597.3102.32100.77
Wilson Alvarez263988695.894.8102.3090.76
Joaquin Andujar305121108118.4104.3102.16103.54
Catfish Hunter476222166217.4140.4102.13118.25
Camilo Pascual357160127156.7108.9102.12116.66
Mel Stottlemyre356164138160.8106.3102.02129.80
Oil Can Boyd207787676.573.8101.92102.98
Roger Clemens707354184347.4192.0101.8995.84
Bob Ojeda29110895106.1104.6101.7990.79
Mark Langston428178158175.0143.4101.73110.18
Jamey Wright2466910167.8108.7101.7292.91
Jeff Fassero242898787.587.7101.6799.19
Steve Trachsel417143159140.7161.3101.6398.59
Clyde Wright2358910687.683.6101.54126.77
Larry Jackson403172155169.4130.0101.53119.22
Rick Reed245907688.888.2101.4186.15
Steve Renko365128141126.3136.2101.36103.55
Jarrod Washburn272989996.898.7101.25100.27
Carlos Zambrano210956093.964.7101.2092.80
Jason Schmidt31012793125.6103.2101.0990.15
Steve Barber27211094108.890.8101.08103.51
Dave Stieb412175137173.2132.7101.05103.22
Andy Hawkins249819080.398.9100.9190.96
Matt Clement236868685.386.1100.8399.93
Randy Wolf241897888.385.4100.7891.29
Luis Tiant484219161217.3148.6100.77108.33
Alex Fernandez26110787106.386.7100.65100.31
Larry Christenson220817080.578.6100.6489.03
Joey Hamilton209727071.679.8100.6087.75
Mark Redman203658564.682.6100.58102.91
Andy Benes387154137153.3130.6100.49104.94
Steve Avery261948093.696.8100.4182.68
Eric Show235918290.779.9100.38102.64
Fergie Jenkins594278218277.1174.6100.31124.84
Sonny Siebert307128109127.998.3100.08110.90
Tom Gordon203737373.075.4100.0796.78
Dennis Eckersley361149130149.0118.999.99109.30
Mark Portugal28310384103.1100.999.9383.25
Jim O'Toole238958495.279.799.83105.37
Dick Bosman229807980.283.299.7394.90
Eric Milton265878487.3105.899.7079.38
Johan Santana20910549105.453.299.6492.18
Doug Drabek387154134154.6130.199.59103.01
Joe Coleman340135129135.6114.499.59112.78
Kevin Brown476210143210.9145.199.5698.53
Bryn Smith255998599.585.799.4699.21
Tim Leary224739773.488.599.42109.54
Pat Rapp239709070.499.599.4190.45
Gary Nolan24710969109.773.399.3794.16
Chris Bosio246888788.788.899.1797.96
Doug Davis235788278.789.599.1491.66
Rick Mahler2718910889.8103.699.10104.28
Danny Jackson324110131111.0123.499.08106.12
Bret Saberhagen371162114163.6114.299.0599.84
John Denny322123108124.2110.999.0097.37
Ron Reed236919691.980.898.99118.85
Ray Sadecki328120123121.3117.098.95105.12
Charlie Hough440174173176.0149.198.86116.06
David Cone419191125193.2121.898.85102.60
Rick Honeycutt2688811689.5103.498.37112.18
Hideo Nomo318123109125.2107.898.26101.08
Claude Osteen488195193198.5161.798.22119.34
Randy Johnson586293160298.3152.998.22104.63
Phil Niekro716302262307.8226.098.12115.92
Mark Gardner275948895.9104.598.0584.20
Ray Culp26811398115.385.197.97115.10
Vida Blue473207159211.4143.797.93110.64
Steve Carlton709327240334.1204.297.86117.53
Fritz Peterson330128129130.8110.697.86116.59
Greg Swindell26910097102.295.597.81101.59
Floyd Bannister363132141135.0129.297.77109.16
Curt Schilling436206134210.7119.697.77112.01
Omar Olivares229688269.693.997.7387.37
Mike Witt299113108115.7104.997.65102.92
Miguel Batista237738074.994.497.5184.71
Jim Rooker25598104100.587.097.48119.57
Bob Gibson482245170251.6121.797.37139.71
Johnny Podres27710792109.993.697.3598.34
Erik Hanson238888290.484.997.3196.64
A.J. Burnett211877589.467.297.26111.53
John Smoltz466206141212.0136.197.19103.58
Steve Hargan215749276.579.296.79116.16
Kevin Gross368126148130.2137.096.77108.05
Don Robinson229817783.782.996.7592.93
Ralph Terry25410190104.483.696.71107.66
Juan Guzman240917994.183.196.6695.05
Dick Ellsworth310109131112.8113.696.64115.36
Ray Burris3029612199.3119.096.63101.64
Ron Darling364135114139.7127.596.6189.39
Gary Peters28612197125.387.596.53110.91
Jerry Koosman527216204223.8167.596.50121.82
Rick Reuschel529208189215.7174.196.43108.54
Blue Moon Odom229828485.182.896.39101.46
Fernando Valenzuela424169153175.3139.096.38110.04
Frank Tanana616236236245.3206.996.19114.07
Mike Morgan411127178132.0163.596.19108.88
Jim Barr2528810091.792.895.92107.80
Bob Friend346135148141.1115.295.68128.44
Gary Bell233869690.081.695.59117.64
Tom Underwood203677470.276.795.4896.54
Curt Simmons257949398.588.895.44104.69
Melido Perez201718274.472.195.39113.78
Bob Knepper413143153150.2149.995.23102.08
Bill Bonham214698072.581.095.2398.77
Mike Krukow355124117130.5126.595.0092.50
Pedro Martinez40020396213.796.694.9899.33
Mike McCormick331120116126.5116.094.87100.04
Tom Seaver647310203327.6168.594.62120.47
Marty Pattin224888793.073.294.62118.93
Andy Ashby28598108103.7104.194.54103.75
Earl Wilson310119108125.9101.994.52106.04
Bill Hands26010099106.086.194.38115.05
Larry Dierker329137123145.2101.994.33120.70
John Thomson212638566.885.694.2899.34
Glenn Abbott206588161.785.394.0394.90
Ed Whitson332114113121.2117.894.0295.96
J.R. Richard22110570111.758.993.97118.92
Stan Williams208777181.969.393.96102.45
Woodie Fryman322109127116.2118.893.82106.88
Ben Sheets221868392.070.293.52118.27
Javier Vazquez353127129136.3122.693.18105.20
Juan Pizarro24510085107.374.793.18113.77
Gaylord Perry690305252327.4200.693.17125.62
Mickey Lolich496209187224.3148.893.16125.63
Sandy Koufax29915580166.469.993.15114.40
Steve Rogers393158152169.9122.292.97124.38
Frank Castillo2688110387.3105.092.8298.13
Don Sutton756321253347.1223.992.47112.98
Bert Blyleven685286248309.3204.992.46121.03
Fred Norman2689898106.089.292.46109.91
Burt Hooton377144127155.8122.792.40103.53
Zane Smith29196110104.0107.192.34102.67
Odalis Perez221717877.084.492.2192.39
Don Drysdale453199155217.3126.991.57122.18
Jim Deshaies253849591.890.891.54104.65
Randy Jones28599120108.699.791.17120.30
Tom Candiotti410146161160.2141.791.14113.65
Pete Harnisch318111103121.9111.191.0992.71
Robin Roberts289104123114.298.691.04124.80
Joe Horlen290110113121.292.990.75121.59
Kip Wells205599165.083.890.72108.57
Bob Veale25510990120.472.890.55123.55
Mike Scott319122105135.5103.190.03101.87
Chris Short308115117127.8100.290.01116.75
Jim Bunning508213174236.7149.290.00116.63
Pete Falcone217638370.484.489.4498.37
Jose Rijo26910581117.579.289.40102.28
Ken Forsch241868796.380.789.28107.81
Don Wilson24510188113.570.888.99124.33
Dave Roberts2778811999.1103.688.83114.81
Danny Darwin371120153135.5133.188.56114.94
Bill Singer308118124133.796.888.24128.09
Ken Johnson231849195.473.388.01124.13
Rudy May360130138147.9119.187.90115.89
Larry McWilliams224728082.181.487.6898.30
John Montefusco244828293.683.287.6498.52
Mario Soto2249087103.665.286.83133.42
Jon Matlack318122123140.697.686.76125.99
Glendon Rusch220599268.191.586.61100.60
Al Downing317116102135.797.385.47104.83
Andy Messersmith29512599146.378.585.45126.04
John Buzhardt200638173.871.185.42113.95
Jim McGlothlin201657476.269.985.27105.90
Pedro Ramos2417411386.987.785.15128.80
Jason Johnson221559664.792.785.05103.58
Dean Chance293110105130.288.084.49119.28
Sid Fernandez30011496136.986.083.26111.69
Nolan Ryan773318291383.6209.482.91138.97
Denny Lemaster24985100102.681.282.83123.15
Don Cardwell30193131112.9106.882.36122.66
Jack Fisher2657412190.7102.681.62117.92
Sam McDowell346133130163.299.681.49130.50
Clay Kirby2397210389.184.380.82122.12
George Brunet212648485.070.975.33118.45
Jose DeLeon26473110112.082.365.20133.67

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at 20 Sunset Rd., Newark, DE 19711. Newer data was purchased from Baseball Info Solutions.

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