A commenter on Cleveland.com prompted me to write a about a thought that ran through my head today. The comment is on the Indians spending in the wake of the Prince Fielder signing:

“The Tribe once complained about the Yankees and Red Sox when talking about competitive imbalance. But now, 3 of the 4 teams in their division are seriously outspending Cleveland. Only the Royals and Tribe are the “penny pinchers”. It’s now clear that we’re one of the few major league teams that simply cannot spend with our peers. This is a wake up call for the Dolans. They either need to step up, or step out.”

This morning I thought about how baseball might be returning to one of the most competitive eras in the history of the majors, 1979 to 1992. In those 14 seasons, there were no repeat World Series champions. Twelve different teams won the title (the Dodgers and Twins winning twice). Twenty-three of the 26 teams made the playoffs at least one time. Teams had plenty of money to spend on free agents, to the extent that offers were close enough that players sometimes decided on where they wanted to live, rather than which team offered the most money.

The last eleven years haven’t been too bad, with nine different teams winning the World Series and 23 of the 30 teams making the playoffs. The majors as a whole is doing very well in terms of shared revenue. National TV contracts and MLBAM feed all franchises a large amount of money. Throw in transfers between rich and poor teams, and the gap in revenue is shrinking. In other words, it’s becoming easier for teams to spend, especially when they are close to a winning team. The big spenders this off-season weren’t the Yankees and Red Sox, but the Angels, Rangers, Tigers and Marlins. It’s very good for the game that more teams are getting involved. In a couple of years, the Cubs and Dodgers will join in, and I suspect Houston won’t be far behind. We’re on the cusp of an outstanding era of competitive balance.

Posted by David Pinto at 5:15 pm | Baseball, Management | Permalink | 6 Comments

January 25, 2012

Testing With Cause

It appears that Jose Bautista was tested for PEDs quite a bit since he started hitting home runs.

Bautista spoke at a banquet the other night and noted that in the past two years — the two years which coincided with his tremendous uptick in homers — he has been given sixteen drug tests. In the two years before that he had three total.

Good. This is exactly what MLB should be doing to drive out the notion that a player is doping. A surge in power like that should raise a red flag. I’m glad that it did. Since Jose has not been suspended, we should assume he’s clean.

Posted by David Pinto at 2:36 pm | Cheating, Players | Permalink | 4 Comments

January 25, 2012

Cespedes Available

Here’s a scene from a baseball front office:

Owner: Prince Fielder was our last hope.

GM: No, there is another.

Yoenis Cespedes, the Cuban defector, established residency in the Dominican Republic and can now become a free agent. Detroit was one of the clubs interested in the slugger. He likely would have been a much cheaper option than Fielder, although having never played in the majors he also would have carried more risk. Why didn’t Detroit wait?

1. They may not have been impressed with what they saw of Cespedes.
2. The team needs to win now, with Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera in their primes.
3. Another team was about to move on Fielder.

I tend to think it’s number two. However, if Detroit waited a few days, they might have been able to bring the price down on Prince by threatening to go with Cespedes.

I wonder if the Nationals will make a move for the Cuban? With Mike Morse under contract for two years, they have time to send Cespedes to the minors to see how he handles professional pitching. If he’s ready, they could bring him and Bryce Harper up at the same time to provide a giant boost to the Nationals’ offense.

Posted by David Pinto at 8:18 am | International | Permalink | 2 Comments

January 25, 2012

The Fielder Worry

Looking at Prince Fielder‘s career, the thing that worries me about his contract is his inconsistency season to season. Take a look at his year-to-year WAR:

Prince Fielder WAR by Season

These are not small movements. In his best seasons, Prince is well worth the contract he signed. His off years would cost the Tigers millions. He’s a bit like Mark Teixeira in this way, as opposed to the consistency of Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez. The Yankees have already seen Teixeira cost them some money.

Posted by David Pinto at 8:00 am | Players | Permalink | No Comments

January 24, 2012

Back to Third

Miguel Cabrera says he is indeed moving back to third base:

Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera told a Spanish-language website that he will move to third base to make room for new first baseman Prince Fielder.

“I will come back to the third base, which is my natural position,” Cabrera told liderendeportes.com in a story translated into English. “The arrival of Fielder will benefit us.”

Cool. The Tigers pitchers will need to generate a lot of strikeouts over the next few seasons, but with Verlander on the staff, it shouldn’t be too difficult.

Posted by David Pinto at 7:07 pm | Defense, Players | Permalink | 5 Comments

January 24, 2012

Cecil on Prince

Cecil Fielder reacts to his son signing with the Tigers:

“That just shocked me,” Cecil Fielder told MLB Radio on SiriusXM. “I just landed in New York … and I got that call — that’s crazy! He’s going to come full circle. You know, he’s been there in Detroit most of his young life, so I think he’ll be comfortable in that place. …

“I know Mr. (Mike) Ilitch is probably pretty excited, because he’s been wanting that kid since he was a little kid, so he finally got his wish.

“I didn’t even see Detroit in the picture. I didn’t even see that happening with all the talk about the Nationals and Texas Rangers and Seattle. … I never saw Detroit making a move like this.”

I wonder how much Ilitch was involved in the move. Scott Boras does like to deal with the owners directly, and if Mike had a soft spot for Prince, that might have made a big difference. I do find it difficult to believe that Dave Dombrowski would go heavy on the offense side of the defensive spectrum on purpose.

Posted by David Pinto at 5:43 pm | Free Agents | Permalink | No Comments

January 24, 2012

Moving Cabrera to Third

The Tigers moved Miguel Cabrera off third base after 14 games in 2008. Miguel’s play was horrible in those 14 games, and the Tigers happened to have a great defensive third baseman in Brandon Inge. The move made sense. Those 14 games, however, were too short a period to judge Cabrera. The 2008 season was a down year in general for him, and it’s tough to know how much his drinking hurt his game. In previous seasons, while Cabrera was by no means a good third baseman, he wasn’t horrible. His bat more than made up for the few extra runs he allowed.

I bring this up because of the Prince Fielder signing. While designated hitter seems to be the place to move Miguel, third base should not be ruled out so quickly. His bat would be very valuable at the position. If you look at the FanGraphs positional adjustments, he’s worth a win more (10 runs) at third than at first. If Cabrera has indeed cleaned up his act and is more able to concentrate on defense than in the past, the Tigers could improve offensively even more with a cheap, veteran bat at DH.

Posted by David Pinto at 5:26 pm | Defense, Players | Permalink | 4 Comments

January 24, 2012

Cordero Changes Colors

Former Reds closer Francisco Cordero agrees to be the setup man for the Blue Jays:

The deal is for just one year– no option, apparently– and $4.5-million. It’s the same amount they could have paid Jon Rauch, had they picked up his option, only in Cordero it nets them a pitcher who still throws in the mid-90s (OK, he averaged 93 on his four-seamer in 2011), and… well… actually pre-2011 Rauch had some better things going for him: better ERA over the previous two years, better FIP, better fWAR, better walk rates.

But Cordero can miss more bats, will produce a lot more ground balls, and has a lot more depth behind him– Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor, Casey Janssen– to pick up the slack. And, of course, Sergio Santos, to close out ballgames.

In each of his four seasons with the Reds, Cordero’s ERA was well below his FIP. Although $4.5 million is a big salary cut for the former closer, the Jays may not get that value out of him.

Posted by David Pinto at 5:13 pm | Free Agents, Pitchers | Permalink | No Comments

January 24, 2012

Timmy!

On a day for big contracts, Tim Lincecum signs a two-year, $40.5 million deal with the Giants:

The right-hander, a four-time All-Star who helped lead San Francisco to the 2010 World Series title, had asked for a one-year contract worth $21.5 million, a record for a player with fewer than six years of major league experience.

The Giants had countered with $17 million, the highest offer ever made by a club in the arbitration process.

This buys out his last two years of arbitration, but he will still become a free agent after the 2013 season. At this rate, Tim might crack $30 million a year on the open market. The new contract means Tim will be bringing more than rolling paper when he goes to a party. Freak out!

Posted by David Pinto at 4:53 pm | Transactions | Permalink | No Comments

January 24, 2012

Prince Finds a Home

The Tigers reached an agreement with Prince Fielder on a nine-year contract:

Now more tweets are coming in confirming Brown’s scoop. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the deal is for nine years, $214 million. Wow! Heyman also says that Fielder will play first base and Cabrera, the incumbent first baseman, will take a new role. The average annual value of the deal is $23.78 million. Fielder will be 36 when it expires.

So does Miguel Cabrera move to designated hitter, or do the Tigers try to return him to third base? If Cabrera becomes the designated hitter, there seems little room for Victor Martinez when he returns from his injury with two years left on his contract.

Congratulations to Prince on the deal. With Justin Verlander, Cabrera and Fielder, the Tigers take three superstars into the 2012 season. The rest of the players just need to be good, not great, to make this into a division winning franchise.

Posted by David Pinto at 4:46 pm | Free Agents | Permalink | 1 Comment

January 24, 2012

Fast and Formulaic

The Astros continue to build an impressive data analysis team:

The Astros added to their statistical strength in the front office, hiring Mike Fast, formerly of Baseball Prospectus to serve in the baseball operations department.

Fast, one of the foremost experts on pitch trajectory data, has also written on HITf/x data for BP. Some of his latest writings have been on hit-and-run success, quantifying how much control pitchers have over batted balls and an analysis of hot and cold zones for hitters.

Congratulations to Mike, and keep your eyes on the Astros over the next few seasons.

Posted by David Pinto at 1:24 pm | Management | Permalink | No Comments

January 24, 2012

A Cut Above

Jeremy Hellickson is ready to add a cutter to his repertoire. Hellickson pitched worse than his ERA in 2011. Some pitchers might post a sub-3.00 ERA and think everything is fine, so it’s good to see Jeremy is not resting on his laurels, but developing a pitch that when thrown correctly is devastating to hitters. This is something to watch as the 2012 season unfolds.

Posted by David Pinto at 1:19 pm | Pitchers | Permalink | No Comments

January 24, 2012

No Room for Error

MetsBlog.com notes that if everything goes right for the Mets, they can make the playoffs. They don’t have a lot of leeway, however. That’s what makes the Yankees so tough. They have enough good players that if two have off years, two might have career years and even things out. The Mets need career years from everyone, and that’s tough to do.

Posted by David Pinto at 12:49 pm | Team Evaluation | Permalink | 1 Comment

January 24, 2012

Posada Retires

Jorge Posada officially calls it quits:

With Rivera and CC Sabathia looking on, Posada began by quoting Joe DiMaggio: “I want to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee.”

“I could never wear another uniform,” he said. “I will forever be a Yankee.”

Posada’s voice broke up, especially when he spoke in Spanish. He thanked his teammates, rubbing his chin three times and wiping his eyes.

Like most players, baseball retired Posada more than Jorge left the game. With Andy Pettitte no longer contemplating a comeback, it would be nice for the Yankees to give the battery a day together.

Posted by David Pinto at 12:22 pm | All-Time Greats | Permalink | No Comments

January 24, 2012

Paying for Potential

Brandon Morrow signed a three-year, $20 million deal with the Blue Jays that could turn into $30 million over four years. This buys out his last two years of arbitration and at least his first year of free agency. Given that FanGraphs rates him as being worth $30 million over the last two seasons, it looks like a good deal for the Blue Jays.

Note that Baseball Reference and FanGraphs differ greatly on Morrow’s value. fWAR awards 7.1 wins to Morrow over the last two years, bWAR comes in at 2.9. How one judges the deal depends on which of those number you believe. Morrow’s career FIP and xFIP are much lower than his career ERA. It’s possible that he played in front of poor defenses his entire career, or it’s possible that FIP is not capturing something about Morrow’s ability to get hitters out. He gives up a high rate of line drives, which usually means more hits.

The good news is that even if the bWAR is the more accurate number, the contract is not a bad one. The Jays just won’t be capturing any residual value.

Posted by David Pinto at 10:31 am | Pitchers, Transactions | Permalink | No Comments

January 24, 2012

Quote of the Day

A commenter at The Soxaholix writes in reference to the Cody Ross deal:

He had one hell of a half of a season in 2007. But don’t worry, Bobby V has a way of discovering hidden talent. Coincidentally, most of the talent on the 2012 roster is well hidden.

Posted by David Pinto at 10:11 am | Free Agents | Permalink | No Comments

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