October 17, 2024

Fry-o-Later

David Fry of Guardians comes up with a runner on third and two outs in the tenth inning and blasts a home run over the leftfield wall, and Cleveland beats the Yankees 7-5. His second post-season home runs raises his slugging percentage to .591, and he now has seven RBI in eight games. There will be no LCS sweeps as the Guardians guarantee a game five with the win.

It was weird, and very fulfilling, to watch extra innings without the ghost runner.

It certainly was a powerful last few innings, with the teams combining for four homers from the eighth on. It’s been a great post-season so far, with very few games with one team out of it late.

October 17, 2024

Merry Christmas

Jhonkensy Noel of the Guardians follows a Lane Thomas two-out double with a home run to tie the Yankees in the bottom of the ninth. Luke Weaver pitched well to that point, but faced two batters too many. Game three goes to the tenth tied at five.

October 17, 2024

Ohtani Ends the Streak

Shohei Ohtani leads off game four of the NLCS with a home run to put the Dodgers up 1-0 over the Mets. It breaks his streak of not getting a hit with the bases empty.

Update: Mark Vientos ties the game with a home run in the bottom of the first.

October 17, 2024

Here Comes the Judge

With two out in the top of the eighth inning, Juan Soto draws a walk, which brings in Emmanuel Clase to face Aaron Judge. Judge gets a hold of a ball, pushing it the opposite way to right, where it just clears the fences to tie the game at three.

It would appear Judge has his stroke back.

Then Giancarlo Stanton follows with a homer that just clears the fence in center, and the Yankees lead 4-3.

October 17, 2024

End of Six in Cleveland

Cleveland once again scores in an inning divisible by three. Lane Thomas walks, goes to second on a ground out, steals third, then scores on a single by Andres Gimenez. That put the Guardians up 3-1 on the Yankees. Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton, batting 2-3-4 today, are 0 for 8 with a walk.

October 17, 2024

End of Three in Cleveland

The Guardians lead the Yankees 2-1 as rookie Kyle Manzardo delivered a two-run homer in the third to give Cleveland the lead. His MLB season wasn’t all that impressive, but the seasonal age 24 player showed good power in the minors, with a .509 slugging percentage at AAA.

Jose Trevino of the Yankees drove in New York’s run in first game since the end of the regular season.

October 17, 2024

Playoffs Today

Clarke Schmidt and Matthew Boyd square off in Cleveland as the Yankees visit the Guardians in game three of the ALCS. New York leads the series 2-0. Schmidt faced the Guardians once this season in a a bend, don’t break game. (We’ve seen a lot of that in this series.) He got the win for allowing two runs, one earned, in five innings despite walking five batters. Overall in 2024, Schmidt held batters to a .154 BA with men on base and a .269 slugging percentage. Boyd has yet to allow a run in seven post-season innings with the Mariners and Guardians. He walked four and struck out 10. Seven of those ten Ks came with men on base, and he’s yet to allow a hit in that situation.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers tries to put Los Angeles up 3-1 in the NLCS as he faces Jose Quintana of the Mets at Citi Field. Yamamoto pitched a poor outing a and a good outing against the Padres, giving him a 5.62 ERA in the post-season. In the good outing, he issued one walk and struck out two as he let the Dodgers defense do the heavy lifting. Quintana has not allowed an earned run in his last three post-season outings, walking four and striking out 14 in 16 1/3 innings. He last pitched on 10/9, giving him seven days of rest.

Game times are 5 PM EDT for the ALCS and and 5 PM PDT for the NLCS.

Enjoy!

October 17, 2024

Dodgers Win

The Dodgers 8-0 win over the Mets Wednesday night returns home field advantage to Los Angeles. During the broadcast, I believe I saw a graphic that basically said the team that wins game three after a 1-1 tie wins the series 69% of the time.

That number is provided without context, however. For example, a team that loses game three after winning the same two should still win the series more often than not. The binomial theorem calculation shows that a the probability of winning at least two games in four for teams that are evenly matched is 0.65. That pretty close to 0.69. It shouldn’t matter how you get to 2-1.

So it would be nice if the networks compare that to the theoretical probability. That’s why the 3-0 situation is so interesting. Teams sweep much more often that you would expect, possibly indicating that the teams were not evenly matched.

October 17, 2024

Best Batter Today

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers stayed in second place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a home run and a walk in the 8-0 win over the Mets. He sits six points behind Aaron Judge of the Yankees. Francisco Lindor of the Mets dropped to sixth place, behind Yordan Alvarez of the Astros. Lindor went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts.

Max Muncy of the Dodgers produced the best game score of the day, a 77. He collected two hits, including a home run, and walked three times for a perfect night at the plate. Muncy owns a .424 OBP and a .654 slugging percentage this post season as he’s added support for the top of the Dodgers order.

October 17, 2024

Thursday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

October 16, 2024

Clearing the Bases

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers comes up with two men on in the top of the eighth inning an launches an upper deck home run down the line in rightfield. He continues to be hitless with the bases empty. Los Angeles leads New York 7-0 in game three of the NLCS.

The Dodgers are going for their fourth shutout of the post-season.

October 16, 2024

Thumbs Up

Luis Arraez underwent thumb surgery:

Arraez said he played through the injury for the entire second half of the season. He injured it June 25 against the Washington Nationals on a headfirst slide into third base on a triple.
ESPN.com

That makes his batting title even more impressive. I think it also explains why Arraez sat so much against left-handed pitchers. It was a way of giving the thumb some time to recover.

October 16, 2024

Buehler

The Dodgers lead the Mets 2-0 after two innings. Walker Buehler worked out of a bases loaded jam (he walked two of the batters), but gets a couple of strike outs to leave them loaded. He k’d four in two innings after recording no strikeouts in his last start against the Padres.

Here’s why we thought something was wrong with him:

But this how things are really going:

October 16, 2024

Great Minds

Baseball Musings mentioned in the Padres-Dodgers preview that San Diego should not worry about Shohei Ohtani, but they should try to stop everyone else. Now MLB.com is suggesting the same thing in the Mets series. (I will note the headline on the front page is not exactly what is in the article.)

October 16, 2024

Playoffs Today

The NLCS moves to New York as the Dodgers send Walker Buehler against the Mets and Luis Severino. Buehler took the loss in his NLDS start, allowing six runs in five innings without striking out a batter. He only pitched twice in Queens in his career, with a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings. He did issue five walks.

Severino has not exactly shut down the opposition this post season, either. He allowed seven run, six earned, in 12 innings, although he did get the win against Milwaukee. The Phillies took him deep twice, but he did not walk a batter in his six innings in that game, and only walked two in the post season.

October 16, 2024

Pulling Bibee

Bill James posted a poll on pulling Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee early in the 6-3 Yankees win:

The decision to replace Tanner Biibe early in the game (a) kept Cleveland in the game, or (b) just wore out the bullpen to no good effect.
— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) October 16, 2024

I would say there is another reason here. Bibee didn’t have his good stuff. By removing him after 39 pitches, it’s likely that he can start game five in Cleveland. Alex Cobb will not pitch again due to injury, so the Guardians need a game five starter. The way things are going, that might be a very pivotal game, and now the Guardians can start Bibee. The pen has today off, and most relievers can pitch every other day. If the Guardians had delivered a bit more with men on base, it could have looked like a brilliant strategy.

October 16, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge of the Yankees hit a home run in the bottom of the seventh inning to give the Yankees some extra insurance, and he remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He posted a one for three with a sacrifice fly and three RBI in the 6-3 win over the Guardians. The Yankees travel to Cleveland knowing the worst that can happen is that they need to return to New York. His teammate, Juan Soto, remains fourth as he went one for three with a walk.

Gleyber Torres recorded a game score of 62, the best in the game. He went three for five with a double, scoring twice. So far in the post season he collected seven hits and six walks in six games for a .433 OBP. He’s doing a great job of setting the table, and scored a run if five of the six games. He is moving up the rankings, now at number 12.

October 16, 2024

Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

October 15, 2024

Cole Gone

Gerrit Cole loads the base twice in the top of the fifth inning. He leaves the game with the Yankees leading the Guardians 3-1, having given up six hits and four walks.

One sign of trouble was that Cole had problems putting away batters. More than once a Guardians hitter fouled off a few pitches to push up Cole’s count.

Clay Holmes comes in and gives up a run scoring force out, and the Yankees lead is down to 3-2 then walks the next batter to load the bases again.

Update: Austin Hedges falls behind 0-2, then swings and misses to end the inning. Once again, the Yankees pitching and defense bends, but doesn’t break.

October 15, 2024

Game Seven Managing

Manager Stephen Vogt of the Guardians is managing game two of the ALCS like it was game seven of the World Series. He lifted starter Tanner Bibee in the second inning when he got in trouble. In the top of the fourth inning he pinch hit for Bo Naylor with the bases loaded and one out, the Yankees leading 3-0. David Fry popped up the first pitch for the second out, then Gerrit Cole caught Brayan Rocchio looking to get out of the jam.

The Guardians obviously feel they need this win.

October 15, 2024

Dropped Pop

The Yankees score in the first inning as Aaron Judge hits a mile high pop up on the infield, and Cleveland shortstop Brayan Rocchio not only drops the ball, it rolls so far away that Juan Soto is able to advance from first base. The second baseman was standing right there. I know the shortstop is going to call for anything he can catch, but with the wind pushing the ball away from shortstop, it might have been an easier catch for the second baseman.

The Yankees lead 1-0 in the bottom of the first inning in game two of the ALCS.

October 15, 2024

Playoffs Today

The Guardians try to even the series with the Yankees as Tanner Bibee takes on Gerrit Cole. Bibee pitched well but not deep so far in his first pot-season on the mound. His ERA stands at 2.08, but he’s yet to make it through the fifth inning. He struck out nine batters and walked three in 8 2/3 innings. This will be Cole fourth start against the Indians/Guardians as a Yankees pitcher in the post season. He is 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA, striking out 29 and walking two in 20 1/3 innings. He also allowed three home runs, all solo shots.

Enjoy!

October 15, 2024

Best Batter Today

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain ranked one and four in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto produced the best game score of the day, a 68 after he posted a two for three with a walk and a home run in the 5-2 win over the Guardians. Judge drew a walk and a hit a sacrifice fly to remain first.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers drew two walks in a 7-3 Mets win to remain in second place. Francisco Lindor of the Mets recaptured fifth place with a home run and a walk in five trips to the plate.

October 15, 2024

Tuesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

October 14, 2024

Dream Weaver

Luke Weaver records a five-out save, and the Yankees defeat the Guardians 5-2. Giancarlo Stanton added his 13th post-season home run, and Brayan Rocchio helped the Guardians get their second run with a heads up play to get a interference call on first base after a single.

The Yankees go up 1-0 in the series.

October 14, 2024

Three Run Game

At the end of six innings, the Yankees lead the Guardians 4-1 in game one of the ALCS. Brayan Rocchio homered in the top of the sixth to put Cleveland on the board. He’s now seven for 18 in the 2024 post-season.

Carlos Rodon pitched six strong innings, walking none and striking out nine. Rocchio’s homer was one of only three hits against him as Clay Holmes comes on for the seventh inning,

October 14, 2024

Juan Gone

Juan Soto scores and drives in the first run of the game as he launches a high, long home run into the right-center bullpen. The wind is blowing in from that part of the park, but Soto got more than enough to makeup for the resistance. The Yankees lead the Guardians 1-0 in the bottom of the third inning of game one of their ALCS.

Update: The Yankees score two more runs on wild pitches as New York leads Cleveland 3-0 1/3 of the way through the game.

October 14, 2024

Walk on the Wild Side

The Mets beat the Dodgers 7-3 to even the NLCS at one game apiece and insure at least five games. The teams combined to issue 15 walks, eight against the Mets staff, seven against the Dodgers. They also combined for 17 strikeouts, so 32 or 84 PA did not result in a bat on the ball.

The Mets got to the Dodgers pitchers early, scoring six runs off the first two in as the Dodgers went exclusively with bullpen hurlers. That does mean the Los Angeles high leverage pitchers will be very well rested for the three games in New York.

October 14, 2024

End of Six

The Dodgers scratch back with one run in the fifth on a Max Muncy home run and two runs in the sixth on a bases loaded single by Tommy Edman. The Mets get out of the sixth when they turn a double play by a hair, including a bobble at third, a near take-out at second, and Pete Alonso with a toe on the bag at first. The teams got to the seventh inning with the Mets leading 6-3 in game two of the NLCS.

October 14, 2024

Slammin’ Second

The Mets add a run in the top of the second inning against the Dodgers before loading the bases. That bring up Mark Vientos looking for his first hit of the NLCS. He blasts a grand slam to right-center and the Mets lead 6-0 in the middle of the second inning. It’s the Mets’ tenth homerun of the post season, their sixth with men on base, and their second grand slam.

Vientos is now 13 for 34 in the post season with two doubles, three home runs, and eleven RBI.