The Royals shut out the Nationals 3-0 Wednesday night after winning 1-0 the night before. For Washington, it’s their third shutout loss in a row, and their fourth in their last seven games. They have now been shutout 18 times on the season, second only to the White Sox with 19.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense in the current season to the previous season through the same number full weeks. After 25 weeks the 2024 season produced 8.81 runs per game versus 9.26 runs per game in 2023. The story of the season continues to be that all three true outcomes are down, but that did not lead to more hits on the extra balls in play. There’s over 500 singles, doubles, and triples missing compared to 2023.
I know the Guardians adopted a more aggressive strategy at the plate, and I suspect other teams or hitters might have emulated them. That strategy might prevent Ks and BB, but it might also mean batters are making contact on pitcher’s pitch.
The other thing I noticed, and I don’t have any stats on this, but defense seems to be incredible this year. I’m extremely impressed by the speed of outfielder and their ability to make catches on dives and jumps. With a universal DH, the non-fielders can find work and teams don’t need to hide them in leftfield or first base. On the infield after a year, teams figured out how to make the most of the shift rules. The ball hit up the middle may to turning into an out again.
Offense in 2024 is limping out of the season as the last three weeks have all been below 8.6 runs per game. Strikeouts were way up in the week 18.7 per game versus 17.0 for the season.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense in the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 24 weeks, the major league game produced 8.83 runs per game compared to 9.26 in 2023. The 2024 season gained on 2023 through the summer, but the last five weeks proved low scoring, and 2024 now trails by over 0.4 runs. If you’ve been following the series, you know that all the stats that contribute to the game are down. The most disturbing to me is that both strikeouts and hits are down. Fewer Ks should lead to more balls in play and more hits, but that just hasn’t happened. With walks down about 0.8 fewer batters are reach base per game.
Last week saw the majors produce 8.36 runs per game. That’s the second lowest week 24 since 2015. HR have been low for the second week in a row, and blame Aaron Judge.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous year through the same number of full weeks. Through 23 weeks, games in 2024 generated 8.85 runs per game compared to 9.25 the previous season. The 0.4 runs per game drop gets contributions across the board. Home runs are down from 2.49 per game to 2.25 per game, and it looks like we are headed for 400 fewer home runs this year. Walks are down from 6.48 per game to 6.14 per game, and other hits dropped from 14.42 per game to 14.17 per game. Even hit by pitches are down slightly, from 0.87 per game to 0.85 per game. Overall, there are 0.8 fewer batters reaching base per game.
That’s with strikeouts down from 17.16 per game to 16.88 per game. More balls in play should lead to more hits, but that didn’t happen this season.
Week 23 was a low offensive week, with 8.52 runs per game. It was the highest strikeout week of the year, with 18.1 strikeouts per game. It’s unlikely that 2024 catches up any with 2023, as weeks 24 and 25 were fairly high scoring in 2023.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 22 weeks, the 2024 season produced 8.86 runs per game compared to 9.22 runs per game in 2023.
I find this result disappointing. MLB worked to reduce the number of three-true outcomes in the game to increase action. They and I held the belief that more balls in play would lead to more base runners, more action on defense, etc. With all of the three true outcomes down, offense went down, however, as the balls in play generated more outs, not more hits. BABIP is down to .290 this season down from .297 in 2023. It was .290 in 2022, the last season of unlimited shifts. One season of analysis, and teams are once again position defenses to eliminate hits.
It unfortunately remains true that the power game, high Ks, high walks, high home runs is the best way to generate runs. Until batters start hitting to counter the shift, we are not going to see the action we want. My guess is that next season we will see a return to higher three-true outcomes.
Week 22 produced a decent amount of offense 9.40 runs per game. Balls did find their way through defenses last week, as games generated 14.6 non-home run hits, versus 14.2 for the whole season. HR were high as well. Week 22 over time turns out to be one of the most consistent weeks for scoring. The high was 10.04 runs per game in 2019, the low 9.03 runs per game in 2018.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense in the current season to offense in the previous season through the same number of weeks. For the second week in a row, 2024 lost ground to 2023. The current season produced 8.83 runs per game compared to 9.21 runs per game last year. The big reason is fewer batters reaching base per game; .15 less by home runs (2.41 to 2.26), .25 less by other hits (14.40 to 14.15), and .30 by walks (6.46 to 6.15). Strike outs are down .40 (17.22 to 16.81).
One explanation could be that batters are being more aggressive at the plate, not waiting to fall behind and putting pitches in play. If you combine that with a further adjustment of fielders to the new shift rules, MLB could wind up with more balls in play without more hits. It also could be that swinging early means batters are swinging at pitches that lead to poor results.
The league scored 8.76 runs per game last week, very close to the season average. It was a poor week for hits with any type of hits below average. You can follow the weekly run scoring since 2015 on this spreadsheet.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 20 weeks, 2024 continues to trail 2023 by about 0.3 runs, 8.83 runs per game this year versus 9.18 runs per game last season. The big drops come from walks and non-home run hits, both down about 0.3 per game. Home runs are close, 2.25 per game this season compared to 2.39 in 2023, but over all 23.4 batters earn their way on this season, 24.1 did it last year. There are simply fewer runners to drive in.
Week 20 came in as a low scoring one after two rather high weeks. The 8.21 runs scored per game is the lowest week 20 in the study since 2015. Home runs were fine, but other hits came in at 13.7 per game, and walks came in at 5.7 per game, well below the season averages of 14.2 and 6.1.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the offense of the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 19 weeks, major league games produced 8.87 runs per game compare to 9.16 runs per game in 2023. All aspects of offense remain down from 2023, but the gap is closing. The home run rate rose to 2.25 least week, just 0.13 per game behind 2023 at 2.38. Walks are down from 6.47 per game to 6.17 per game. Other hits are at 14.20 compared to 14.39 in 2023. Strikeouts remain down the most, from 17.19 per game in 2023 to 16.78 in 2024.
Week 19 produced another high scoring week, coming in at 9.56 runs per game. Home runs were down from the week before at 2.56 per game. Other hits rose a great deal to 15.25 per game. It was the best week for singles, doubles, and triples on the season.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through eighteen weeks, the 2024 season produced 8.83 runs per game compare to 9.17 in 2023. A big week for offense closed the gap a bit. Home runs per game are much closer year to year, 2.23 in 2024 versus 2.38 in 2023. Other hits are close as well, 14.14 in 2024 versus 14.39 in 2023. Strikeouts and walks remain down, Ks going from 17.2 per game to 16.8 per gane and walks dropping from 6.50 per game to 6.17 per game. Overall the drop in batters earning their way on base dropped from 24.1 per game to 23.4 per game.
Week 18 produced 9.89 runs per game, the highest of any week this season and the highest of any week 18 going back to 2015. It game down to home runs, with 2.7 hit per game, the best of any week this season. Other hits were up, too, with 14.56 per game. Walks, however remained low. So batters put the bat on the ball last week and saw very good results.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares MLB offense to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through seventeen weeks, game produced 8.77 runs per game versus 9.17 runs per game in 2023. That 0.4 run difference has been consistent over the weeks. Home runs have ticked up recently, with five of the last six weeks above the season average of 2.21 per game. That is still down from 2.36 per game the previous year. There are fewer walks and strikeouts as well, but the reduced three true outcomes have not led to more hits overall.
If fact, if you look at the graph here, scoring by week in 2024 looks a lot like scoring per week in 2022, the last year of unlimited shifts. It’s as if MLB teams figured out how to optimize defensive positioning within the rules of the game.
A bit of good news is that triples are trending up for the second season in a row. The are at 0.4% of PA for the first time since 2019.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compare the offensive numbers of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through sixteen weeks, MLB games produced 8.77 runs versus 9.17 runs in 2023. Home runs are down about 0.15 per game. In four of the last five weeks they rate came in above 2.5 per game, so long balls are trending up. Strikeouts remain down by about 0.5 per game, and walks are down about 0.3 per game. I watch and listen to lots of different broadcasts, and announcers seem to believe batters are being more aggressive early in the counts this year. The extra balls in play are not turning into more hits, however, as BABIP hits are down from 14.4 per game to 14.1per game.
The three day post All Star week produced 8.43 runs per game. While homers were up, other hits were down to 13.1 per game. You can follow weekly scoring here.
Every Monday morning Baseball Musings compares offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of weeks. So far in 2024, MLB games generated 8.78 runs per game compared to 9.16 R/G in 2023. The All-Star break happened in this week last season so the number of games played is a bit off in this comparison, but it’s pretty much where it’s been all season. Everything is down a bit across the board; home runs, walks and strikeouts. The disappointing thing is that more balls in play has not led to more other hits. All in all 23.3 batters per game earn their way on compared to 24.1 last season.
The week produced 8.93 R/G, so a little better than the season average but low compared to most other years in the study. The summer time home run binge is on as three of the last four weeks produced 2.5+ HR per game compared to the season average of 2.19 per game.
Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains on top of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a one for three with a walk in a 5-3 Rays win. It’s been a few games since Judge produced an extra-base hit. His teammate, Juan Soto, drew a walk in five trips to the plate and drops to third place.
Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles took advantage of Soto’s poor game to move into second place. He went one for four in a 9-2 Cubs win. Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers singled and walked in a 10-1 Phillies win and sits in fourth place. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts in a 4-3 win over the Marlins for fifth place.
Brenton Doyle of the Rockies posted a three for four night with a double and a home run in a 12-6 Reds win for the best game score of the day, an 84. It’s the third time this season and the second time this month Doyle came out on top for best game score of the day. This was his first time on the road, however, and he has not hit well away from Coors. Honorable mention goes to Rece Hinds of the Reds. In his second MLB game, he goes three for five, missing the cycle by a single! In two games, he is five for eight, all five hits for extra bases.
Note that Tuesday was a good day for runs, the 13 games averaging 11.85 runs/game, the second highest scoring day of the season. There were a lot of walks, home runs, and strikeouts.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 14 weeks, MLB games produced 8.77 runs per game compared to 9.14 runs per game in 2023. The gap appears to be narrowing just a bit. The home run difference is down to 0.17 per game, 2.15 this year compared to 2.32 in 2023. Walks remain down, now 0.3 per game fewer than in 2023, and strikeouts remain down, about 0.5 per game. Unfortunately, more balls in play did not lead to more BABIP hits (singles, doubles, triples) as those are down 0.3 per game. It does seem those extra balls in play may be preventing the scoring drop from being worse. Batted balls that don’t get recorded as hits can produce more positive outcomes than strikeouts.
Week fourteen was a good week for scoring, averaging 9.37 runs per game, the second best full week of the season. Home runs, walks, and strikeouts were all up, as well as all hits. The three true outcome offense can be an efficient one, which is why it is so tough to reduce.
One thing I like about the All-Star starting lineups for 2024 is how they demonstrate the limits on putting together a great team. The lineup analysis here shows the AL squad capable of generating seven runs a game. Imagine a lineup with Adley Rutschman and Vladimir Guerrero bat eighth and ninth!
If you put that team in a 4.5 runs/game league, you would expect them to post a winning percentage of .708 or a 115-47 record. I like that number, as it is the mirror image of replacement level. Forty eight wins is sometimes used as replacement level, as it is the theoretical floor for wins by a major league team. So it’s not surprising, if you put together a superstar lineup, the ceiling for wins should be around 114.
It’s also the reason most organizations don’t try to have a lineup packed with superstars. Ninety five wins today means a trip to the playoffs. There’s no need to spend the money on the extra 20 wins, unless maybe you really need to win a World Series.
You can try getting really extreme with the LAT. Make a lineup of your favorite hitters, or even who you think are the greatest players at each position. Take their best season, or their three-year peak, and put in the OBP and Slugging percentages, and see how many runs you can generate. Maybe when I get time I’ll attempt this lineup:
Substitute as you like.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compare offense in the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 13 full weeks the majors average 8.72 runs per game against 9.15 runs per game in 2023. Offense ticked up a bit over the last two weeks. Week thirteen broke the cycle of a high offensive week followed by a low offensive week, with this week coming in at 8.94 runs per game.
All three true outcomes remain down. Home runs dropped from 2.3 per game to 2.1 per game. Walks dropped from 6.5 per game to 6.2 per game. Strikeouts dropped from 17.2 per game to 16.7 per game. That means there should be about one more ball in the field of play per game. That’s the right direction. That has not led to more hits, however, as other hits are also down, from 14.4 per game to 14.1 per game.
MLB should be very happy about these numbers. Things are moving in the right direction.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through twelve full weeks, MLB games generated 8.70 runs versus 9.10 runs in 2023. That narrows the gap some between the seasons. The gap in home runs narrowed a bit as well, with 2.13 per game in 2024 versus 2.31 in 2023.
Over the last three weeks, strike outs have been steadily low at 16.2 per game. Last week also saw the lowest walk rate for a week this year of 5.6 per game. Home runs had their best week of the year at 2.6 per game. I will take that trade-off in three true outcomes. You can follow the weekly run numbers here.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current MLB season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through eleven full weeks, the 2024 produced 8.68 runs per game versus 9.11 runs per game in 2023. Nothing from the previous weeks has really changed. Home runs, walks, strikeouts, other hits have settled into a stable zone for 2024. The pattern continues of a higher week of scoring followed by a lower week of scoring, most likely connected to the the front line starters appearing twice every other week.
What’s interesting to me is that there have been no bump to better weather. Things are eerily stable this season.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. After ten full weeks, major league games produced 8.68 runs per game compared to 9.07 R/G in 2023. The changes stayed pretty much the same, with home runs down about 0.2 per game from 2.29 in 2023 to 2.07 in 2024. Other hits dropped as well, from 14.36 to 14.09. Strikeouts and walks are down, also, so somehow the majors reduced three true outcomes, which has been a goal for a while.
The week produced some high scoring, as it came in at 9.09 runs per game, the first time above nine runs per game since week two. The week saw home runs hit at a higher rate of 2.30 per game, but other hits were not that high. It was the fourth week in a row with a walk rate below 6.0 per game. It was also the lowest K week of the season, with just 16.02 K per game. So lots more balls in play this week, but the defense seems to be up to the challenge.
The Mariners experiment of adding an offensive coordinator came to an end today as they fired Brant Brown.
Brown was hired last winter under the newly created title of offensive coordinator in hopes of providing a spark to a lineup that set a franchise record in 2023 with a 25.9% strikeout rate, second-worst in MLB.
Instead, the lineup has, by and large, been even worse through the first two months of this season, ranking No. 1 in MLB with a 28.3% strikeout rate, one of the highest rates in league history.
SeattleTimes.com
A high strikeout rate can work if it leads to power, but the Mariners isolated power of .141 is the fourth lowest in the AL. Strikeouts tend to lead to fewer hits, Seattle’s .221 BA ranked second lowest. This is a team that needs to make contact, and they’re not doing so.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through eight full weeks, MLB games in 2024 average 8.66 runs per game compared to 9.16 R/G in 2023, a half run drop. That gap has been consistent week to week with home runs and other hits down. Walks are now down 0.3 per game, and that gap keeps widening as the seasons progress. Strikeouts are down almost 0.5 per game.
With all three true outcomes down, balls in play should be up, and that should lead to more hits other than home runs. Those other hits are down from 14.41 per game to 14.06 per game. MLB BABIP is down from .297 last year to .287 this year.
What’s going on?
There are a number of elite strikeout pitchers on the shelf. The absence of Gerrit Cole, Spencer Strider, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Shane Bieber, etc. could bring Ks down a bit. Home runs being down a bit could be from a cold spring (especially in the northeast) or the ball having a lower coefficient of restitution. It could also be that after a year under the new shift rules, teams have found a more optimum legal positioning strategy.
Looking at league STATCAST data, however, another explanation comes to mind. Average and max exit velocities are consistent over the last four seasons. Average launch angles, however, rose in each of the last three seasons, from 12.6 degrees in 2021 to 13.1 degrees in 2024. There might be a point where launch angles become too high, and if launch angles go get too high, a lot of fly balls will be landing in gloves. We do see that infield fly balls are up and HR/Fly Ball are down. Maybe it’s simply some batters are going for a home run launch angle who should instead be going for a line drive launch angle.
The latest week produced 8.72 runs per game. Home runs were up from the previous week but other hits were down. Seems we can’t have both! Strikeouts, at 16.20 per game, were at their lowest level of any week this season. You can follow the weekly scoring here.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offensive numbers of the current season to the previous year through the same number of weeks. In 2024, offense continues to be down, with games producing 8.65 runs per game versus 9.14 runs per game in 2023. The half a run per game decline comes with a nearly 0.3 home run per game drop, from 2.29 per game to 2.03 per game. The gap in walks is getting bigger, from 6.6 per game down to 6.4 per game. Ks are down as well, from 17.2 per game to 16.8 per game. More balls in play does not mean more hits, however, as other hits dropped from 14.4 per game to 14.1 per game.
Last week saw 8.41 runs scored per game. Other hits picked up a bit, coming in at 14.7 per game, but home runs had a poor week at 1.9 per game. You can see each week compared since 2015 here.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense in the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through six full weeks major league games produced 8.69 runs per game compared to 9.10 runs per game in 2023, a drop of about 0.4 runs per game. The effort to bring down three true outcome events shows a bit of success, with home runs down about 0.2 per game, walks down about 0.1 per game, and strikeouts down about 0.3 per game. All the extra balls in play, however are not turning into hits, however, with combined singles, doubles, and triples (other hits) down about 0.35 per game.
Over time, pitching and hitting balance each other, with each side constantly adjusting. Both sides get better at about the same rate. There is no balance to constantly improving defense, however. I have no doubt teams figured out how to use the shift rules to gain the maximum defensive value from them, but I also believe that fielders are just a lot better. Watching games everyday, I find myself wowed by defensive plays; great catches, great throws, acrobatic shovels on double plays. Even without shifting, it’s much tougher to get a ball past the defense.
Last week came in at 8.73 runs per game, the best scoring week since week two. Home runs were up while strikeouts were down, while other hits held the season average of about 14 per game.
Every week Baseball Musings compare offense in the current season through the same number of full weeks in the previous year. Through five full weeks, major league games produced 8.69 runs per game compared to 9.25 runs per game in 2023. That’s a drop of over half a run per game. Home runs contribute the most to this drop, as they fell from 2.28 per game to 2.01 per game. Al three-true outcomes fell. Walks dropped slightly from 6.67 to 6.53 per game, strikeouts a bit more from 17.25 to 16.93 per game.
So that means more action! More action does not mean more hits, however, as other hits dropped from 14.44 to 14.02. I find this especially disturbing since the spate of injuries to great pitchers should have made offense easier.
Week five finished especially low scoring despite a number of teams scoring in double digits over the weekend. The past week came in at 8.08 runs per game, with other hits having the worst week of the season. Note that this is the lowest scoring week five since the study started in 2015.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. After four full weeks, offense is down from 9.19 runs per game in 2023 to 8.82 runs per game in 2024. (Games played are exactly the same at 425.) A big part of that offensive drop comes from home runs, down 2.26 per game to 2.04 per game. The other two true outcomes dropped as well. Walks went from 6.67 per game down to 6.60 per game, while strikeouts dropped from 17.42 per game to 16.97 per game.
The game produced more balls in play! Defense appears to have risen to the extra work, as other hits dropped from 14.35 per game to 14.20 per game. I suspect fans are happy with this. They get to see everyone on the field moving more, and that’s just fine.
While having lots of elite pitchers out with injuries may have contributed to the drop in strikeouts, it doesn’t seem to have led to more scoring.
Week four produced 8.56 runs per game. Home runs last week were up compared to the season average, coming in at 2.26 per game, but walks were down to 5.86 to compensate a bit. You can follow the weekly scoring since 2015 here.
Diamondbacks collect ten hits in the first five innings against the Cardinals to take a 10-1 lead in the game. Each of the Diamondbacks nine batters collected a hit. The team added three walks and a six for nine with runners in scoring position to bring home the runs.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense to the same point in the previous season. Through three full weeks, the 2024 season produced 8.89 runs per game compared to 9.14 runs per game in 2023. All three-true-outcome events are down. Home runs are down from 2.3 per game to 2.0 per game. Walks are down ever so slightly, by 0.01 per game. K’s are down from 17.5 per game to 17.1 per game. With strikeouts down, other hits are up, the ball in play in BABIP! The increase is small, 0.03 per game. We are getting lower scoring with more action.
The week was a poor one for offense, with only 8.16 runs per game. That’s the worst week three in the study that started in 2015. Both strikeouts and home runs collapsed, K’s coming in at 16.6 per game and HRs at 1.64 per game.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares scoring in the current season to the same number of full weeks from the previous year. Offense is down slightly from two weeks into 2023, with the 2024 season producing 9.19 runs per game versus 9.32 runs per game. Almost everything is down across the board. Home runs per game dropped to 2.11 from 2.27. Walks dropped from 7.05 per game to 6.89. Despite a drop in strikeouts from 17.32 per game to 17.22 per game, other hits (not home runs) are down from 14.55 per game to 14.40 per game. The only thing slightly up is Hit by Pitches, up to 0.89 per game from 0.82 per game.
Overall, 24.29 batters earn their way on per game this season versus 24.69 last season. Fewer three-true outcomes should mean more balls in play, but that’s not translating into other hits. Part of it might be teams learning to optimize the shift rules. Teams are still able to take away the middle of the field my moving shortstops and second basemen as close to second base as possible.
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offensive production of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. At the end of first week+ of 2024, the majors produced 9.01 runs per game compared to 9.40 in 2023. Home runs dropped from 2.3 per game to 2.0 per game, accounting for most of the decline. Walks are down slightly from 7.1 to 6.9 per game, but strikeouts are up even more slightly to 7.27 per game from 7.22 per game.
We also seem to have lost non-home run hits. Singles, doubles, and triples combined dropped from 14.5 per game to 14.1 per games. About the only thing that increased in “favor” of offense was hit by pitches, up to 0.98 per game from .74 per game. Overall, batters reaching base are down from 24.7 per game to 27.2 per game.
Given all those drops, I’m surprised run scoring didn’t drop more. I checked stolen bases, and the league is running at about the same rate, but the SB% is down.
So far at least, pitchers seem to have adjusted to the pitch clock just fine, and the limits on defensive shifts may not be working as well as in the first week of last season.
You can follow run scoring by week over the last ten years in this spreadsheet.
The Blue Jays picked up two hits in the first inning against the Astros, so they will not be no-hit two games in a row. They do not score, however, so their 12 scoreless inning streak is in place.