Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day. The sheet also includes a table that summarizes the length of positive and negative streaks.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.326 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.322 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.312 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.311 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jameson Taillon
0.308 — Zack Cozart batting against Luis Perdomo
0.307 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luis Perdomo
0.303 — Howie Kendrick batting against Rick Porcello
0.301 — Jose Peraza batting against Luis Perdomo
0.298 — Elvis Andrus batting against Joe Musgrove
0.297 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Jerad Eickhoff

There are a number of the usual characters on the list, even with an abbreviated schedule. Elvis Andrus currently owns the longest hit streak in the majors, and Blackmon is at nine games.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.326, 0.766 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.311, 0.747 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.322, 0.747 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.312, 0.726 — Ryan Zimmerman batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.297, 0.720 — Dustin Pedroia batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.301, 0.717 — Jose Peraza batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.307, 0.717 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.294, 0.716 — Avisail Garcia batting against Wade Miley.
0.281, 0.716 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.283, 0.716 — Trea Turner batting against Mike Foltynewicz.

Murphy is the unanimous pick. Andrus is just off the list with a .714 probability of getting a hit in the game.

As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the daily list of active streaks of plate appearances without a hit, with pitchers eliminated:

Cozart has a high probability of getting a hit today, and if you believe in such things, he’s due.

Good luck!