Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.331 — Jean Segura batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.318 — Kevin Pillar batting against Martin Perez.
0.318 — Dee Gordon batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.307 — Michael Brantley batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.303 — Robinson Cano batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.301 — Nelson Cruz batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.301 — Steve Pearce batting against Martin Perez.
0.296 — Mitch Haniger batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.296 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Martin Perez.
0.292 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.290 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.287 — Luke Maile batting against Martin Perez.
0.287 — Justin Smoak batting against Martin Perez.
0.285 — Jose Ramirez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.285 — Manny Machado batting against Daniel Norris.
0.283 — Freddie Freeman batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.283 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.283 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.283 — Matt Kemp batting against Ty Blach.
0.283 — Ryon Healy batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.283 — Tyler Naquin batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.282 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Martin Perez.
0.282 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Andriese.
0.282 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.281 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Martin Perez.
0.281 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.281 — Ender Inciarte batting against Vincent Velasquez.
Batters are 36 for 89, a .404 BA against Martin Perez this season. I suspect players on the Blue Jays disabled list could get a hit against him. In the past, Perez compensated for the high BA against him by not allowing much power, but this year, 10 of the 36 hits went for extra bases.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.331, 0.745 — Jean Segura batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.292, 0.738 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Cahill.
0.318, 0.730 — Dee Gordon batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.307, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.303, 0.707 — Robinson Cano batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.318, 0.705 — Kevin Pillar batting against Martin Perez.
0.283, 0.702 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.282, 0.701 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Andriese.
0.290, 0.701 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.285, 0.701 — Jose Ramirez batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.301, 0.700 — Nelson Cruz batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.285, 0.700 — Manny Machado batting against Daniel Norris.
0.274, 0.700 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.273, 0.697 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Matt Andriese.
0.282, 0.696 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.278, 0.695 — Albert Almora batting against Zach Davies.
0.281, 0.695 — Ender Inciarte batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.256, 0.694 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Caleb Smith.
0.281, 0.693 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.283, 0.693 — Matt Kemp batting against Ty Blach.
0.283, 0.693 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Bryan Mitchell.
0.283, 0.693 — Freddie Freeman batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.271, 0.692 — Didi Gregorius batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.296, 0.692 — Mitch Haniger batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.262, 0.691 — Starlin Castro batting against Chad Bettis.
Tomlin’s high hit average allowed (he walks few batters) wins out over Altuve’s ability to accumulate hits today. Segura is the unanimous first pick with Dee Gordon, the consensus second pick. Look for the Seattle table setters to do well today.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!