Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.361 — Matt Kemp batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.352 — Jean Segura batting against Wilmer Font.
0.341 — Jose Martinez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.337 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister.
0.333 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.332 — Starlin Castro batting against Eric Lauer.
0.325 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Harvey.
0.318 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luke Weaver.
0.316 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.315 — Brian Anderson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.315 — Yadier Molina batting against Matt Harvey.
0.313 — Dee Gordon batting against Wilmer Font.
0.309 — Derek Dietrich batting against Eric Lauer.
0.305 — Thomas Pham batting against Matt Harvey.
0.305 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.296 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Doug Fister.
0.296 — Jedd Gyorko batting against Matt Harvey.
0.294 — Albert Almora batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.292 — Yairo Munoz batting against Matt Harvey.
0.292 — Justin Turner batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.290 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.290 — Harrison Bader batting against Matt Harvey.
0.288 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.288 — Luke Voit batting against Matt Harvey.
0.286 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Greinke.
Matt Kemp found his stroke again. After three years of sub-par performance, he’s hitting like an MVP. That’s been good news for the Dodgers, given the injuries to stars this season.
Wilmer Font makes his first ever start as the Rays continue to use the opener strategy. Font allowed 34 hits this season in 23 relief innings, and 11 of those 34 hits were home runs. It might be a good day to double down on Gordon and Segura, since they could easily lead off with hits.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.337, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Doug Fister.
0.352, 0.767 — Jean Segura batting against Wilmer Font.
0.361, 0.758 — Matt Kemp batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.341, 0.744 — Jose Martinez batting against Matt Harvey.
0.318, 0.743 — Scooter Gennett batting against Luke Weaver.
0.332, 0.731 — Starlin Castro batting against Eric Lauer.
0.333, 0.730 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Eric Lauer.
0.325, 0.727 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Matt Harvey.
0.316, 0.726 — Matt M Duffy batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.313, 0.725 — Dee Gordon batting against Wilmer Font.
0.288, 0.723 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.294, 0.722 — Albert Almora batting against Chad Kuhl.
0.290, 0.720 — J.D. Martinez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.296, 0.717 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Doug Fister.
0.305, 0.716 — Wilson Ramos batting against Marco Gonzales.
0.286, 0.716 — Nolan Arenado batting against Zack Greinke.
0.315, 0.716 — Yadier Molina batting against Matt Harvey.
0.279, 0.715 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Zack Greinke.
0.272, 0.713 — Nick Castellanos batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.280, 0.710 — Gerardo Parra batting against Zack Greinke.
0.272, 0.705 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Zack Greinke.
0.273, 0.703 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Dylan Covey.
0.315, 0.701 — Brian Anderson batting against Eric Lauer.
0.267, 0.701 — Jose Ramirez batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.305, 0.697 — Thomas Pham batting against Matt Harvey.
0.266, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting against Walker Buehler.
Jose Altuve pops to the top again, his .771 probability of a hit one of the highest of the year. Segura and Kemp are tied for the consensus first pick. It’s a target rich environment for hits tonight! Altuve is 4 for 12 against Fister in his career with two strikeouts and no walks.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!