Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.307 — Gerardo Parra batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.303 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.301 — Jose Altuve batting against Frankie Montas.
0.300 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.297 — Michael Brantley batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.296 — Nolan Arenado batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.296 — Jean Segura batting against David Price.
0.289 — Mookie Betts batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.288 — Odubel Herrera batting against German Marquez.
0.282 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.281 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tyson Ross.
0.279 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Frankie Montas.
0.279 — J.D. Martinez batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.278 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.277 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.277 — Nick Castellanos batting against Lance Lynn.
0.276 — Brandon Crawford batting against Daniel Straily.
0.275 — Nick Markakis batting against Tyson Ross.
0.274 — Jose Ramirez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.273 — Jon Jay batting against Steven Matz.
0.270 — Starlin Castro batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.270 — Buster Posey batting against Daniel Straily.
0.269 — Eric Hosmer batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.268 — Brian Anderson batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.266 — Noel A Cuevas batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.266 — Francisco Lindor batting against Carlos Rodon.
It looks like a good day to pick someone from the Rockies. Velasquez owns a high strikeout rate, but it’s somewhat balanced by a high BABIP allowed.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.301, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Frankie Montas.
0.296, 0.744 — Jean Segura batting against David Price.
0.297, 0.727 — Michael Brantley batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.303, 0.724 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.307, 0.723 — Gerardo Parra batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.300, 0.720 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.279, 0.716 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Frankie Montas.
0.282, 0.713 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Fulmer.
0.289, 0.712 — Mookie Betts batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.281, 0.710 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tyson Ross.
0.296, 0.709 — Nolan Arenado batting against Vincent Velasquez.
0.279, 0.706 — J.D. Martinez batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.274, 0.702 — Jose Ramirez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.277, 0.702 — Nick Castellanos batting against Lance Lynn.
0.278, 0.700 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.269, 0.699 — Eric Hosmer batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.288, 0.699 — Odubel Herrera batting against German Marquez.
0.265, 0.699 — Matt M Duffy batting against Domingo German.
0.273, 0.698 — Jon Jay batting against Steven Matz.
0.275, 0.695 — Nick Markakis batting against Tyson Ross.
0.270, 0.695 — Buster Posey batting against Daniel Straily.
0.276, 0.692 — Brandon Crawford batting against Daniel Straily.
0.270, 0.692 — Starlin Castro batting against Dereck Rodriguez.
0.256, 0.690 — Dee Gordon batting against David Price.
0.260, 0.685 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Felix Hernandez.
Altuve pops to the top against Frankie Montas. Montas is off to a good start this season, but his career is a rather small sample size. He greatly reduced his ERA despite cutting down on strikeouts. He instead concentrated on preventing walks and home runs. Right now, the NN sees him as a slightly better than league average pitcher in terms of hit average, while Altuve is way above average. I would think that Montas pitching to contact would be good for Altuve, and Montas does give up a high percentage of line drives. I suspect Montas is due for a correction, we just don’t know when.
Altuve is the consensus first pick, with Parra and Blackmon the consensus second choices.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!