For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.315 — Javier Baez batting against Jeff Hoffman.
• 0.309 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kyle Hendricks.
• 0.305 — Austin Meadows batting against Ryan Carpenter.
• 0.304 — Howie Kendrick batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
• 0.296 — Anthony Rendon batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
• 0.294 — David Dahl batting against Kyle Hendricks.
• 0.294 — Melky Cabrera batting against Max Fried.
• 0.292 — Michael Brantley batting against Jon Niese.
• 0.291 — Rafael Devers batting against Glenn Sparkman.
• 0.290 — Cody Bellinger batting against Taylor Clarke.
• 0.290 — David Fletcher batting against Frankie Montas.
• 0.290 — J.D. Martinez batting against Glenn Sparkman.

Baez was a hot pick for a while, but didn’t perform well when he was at the top of the list. This is more about Hoffman being hittable in the long term, and very hittable this season.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.309, 0.736 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kyle Hendricks.
• 0.304, 0.732 — Howie Kendrick batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
• 0.315, 0.732 — Javier Baez batting against Jeff Hoffman.
• 0.292, 0.728 — Michael Brantley batting against Jon Niese.
• 0.305, 0.727 — Austin Meadows batting against Ryan Carpenter.
• 0.294, 0.723 — Melky Cabrera batting against Max Fried.
• 0.290, 0.717 — David Fletcher batting against Frankie Montas.
• 0.290, 0.716 — J.D. Martinez batting against Glenn Sparkman.
• 0.294, 0.715 — David Dahl batting against Kyle Hendricks.
• 0.285, 0.713 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Clayton Richard.
• 0.296, 0.713 — Anthony Rendon batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
• 0.280, 0.713 — Jorge Polanco batting against Shane Bieber.

Arenado against Hendricks is a fascinating match-up. Hendricks doesn’t allow many hits, but due to his lack of walks, his one and three year hit averages are above the mean (.238 and .234 versus .225). Arenado owns a great hit average this season, .313, and a good long-term one at .278. The two have a decent history against each other, Arenado 6 for 22 against Hendricks, .273, with one walk and two strikeouts. So Arenado puts the ball in play, which is very important for getting a hit.

Baez and Arenado tie for the consensus first pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!