For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.330 — Austin Meadows batting against Daniel Norris.
• 0.316 — Michael Brantley batting against Tom Milone.
• 0.311 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Edwin Jackson.
• 0.307 — Avisail Garcia batting against Daniel Norris.
• 0.306 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jose Quintana.
• 0.303 — Melky Cabrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
• 0.301 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Edwin Jackson.
• 0.300 — David Dahl batting against Jose Quintana.
• 0.299 — Jose Martinez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
• 0.295 — Jeff McNeil batting against Shaun Anderson.

The Austin Meadows for Chris Archer deal turned out to be an excellent trade for the Rays so far. Meadows posted a .354/.430/.659 slash line so far this season, leading the AL in batting average and slugging percentage. Norris gives up many more hits than walks, so he gives batters a chance to extend their streaks.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.316, 0.747 — Michael Brantley batting against Tom Milone.
• 0.330, 0.740 — Austin Meadows batting against Daniel Norris.
• 0.306, 0.733 — Nolan Arenado batting against Jose Quintana.
• 0.303, 0.726 — Melky Cabrera batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
• 0.287, 0.724 — Howie Kendrick batting against Joey Lucchesi.
• 0.295, 0.723 — Jeff McNeil batting against Shaun Anderson.
• 0.311, 0.723 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Edwin Jackson.
• 0.300, 0.721 — David Dahl batting against Jose Quintana.
• 0.299, 0.718 — Jose Martinez batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
• 0.307, 0.714 — Avisail Garcia batting against Daniel Norris.

Brantley and Meadows are tied for the consensus first pick.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!