Josh Bell hit three doubles Thrusday afternoon to help the Pirates beat the Braves 6-1. That gives Bell twenty five doubles on the season and 45 extra-base hits. His pace for the season, 45 EXBH in 61 team games would put him at 119.5 for the season. That would either tie or break the single season record set by Babe Ruth in 1921, depending on how one rounds. It would easily break the NL record of 107 set by Chuck Klein in 1903, and tied by Barry Bonds in 2001.

The Musings Marcels projections show Bell accumulating 42 extra base hits this season. Using that rate as his intrinsic EXBH rate, I’m now charting his probability of breaking either the NL record or the MLB record. Right now, he’s still a long shot for both. Stay tuned.