The AL Wild Card massive tie is down to the three-way race between the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox as Seattle failed to capitalize on their series with Boston. Those three teams are in a perfect position. They just need to win together and lose together, with the Yankees and Blue Jays splitting the two games in hand they each enjoy. The probability of the tie happening rises to 0.0237, the fourth day in a row the probability went up. The most likely number of wins for the tie is now 91.

The four-way race for the second slot of the NL Wild Card took an interest turn yesterday. The probability of the four-way tie went up to 0.0021, while the probability of the three-way went down to 0.0189. The Cardinals now have a full one-game lead over the Padres, 1 1/2 games over the Reds, and three games over the Phillies. The most likely number of wins for both ties would be 84.

The chance of a three-way tie in the NL East improved despite the Mets falling to the Cardinals, as the Braves also lost. It is still remote at 0.0034, with the most likely win total for the tie at 82.

For today, these results would provide the best chances to improve the probabilities:

• The Braves fall to the Rockies.
• The Reds sink the Pirates.
• The Padres defeat the Giants.
• The Yankees can go either way against the Orioles.
• The Phillies win over the Cubs.

Every team in the NL Wild Card race has a chance to gain on the Cardinals.