Salvador Perez of the Royals put a stake in the probability of Vladimir Guerrero winning the triple crown in 2021. Perez hit a home run to tie Guerrero for the home run lead. More importantly, Perez drove in two runs, and now leads Guerrero by nine in the RBI race, 112-103.

Chemistry has the concept of the rate limiting step; the speed of a chemical reaction is dependent on the speed of the slowest step of the reaction. The probability of winning the triple crown is controlled by the lowest probability of winning one of the categories. The RBI simulator gives Guerrero just a 5% chance of winning the RBI title. Even if he had a 100% chance of winning the HR and batting titles at this point, the low RBI probability would still make the crown highly unlikely. We’ll see if Guerrero can close the gap quickly, but right now it looks like it will be close, but no cigar.