For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 Method picks:
- 0.307 — Adam Frazier batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.304 — Trea Turner batting against Luis Castillo.
- 0.303 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Keegan Akin.
- 0.303 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Michael Pineda.
- 0.301 — Bo Bichette batting against Michael Pineda.
- 0.300 — Salvador Perez batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.299 — David Fletcher batting against Cole Irvin.
- 0.299 — Jose Iglesias batting against Keegan Akin.
- 0.299 — Bryan De La Cruz batting against Wil Crowe.
- 0.297 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Michael Pineda.
Frazier turned out to be a disappointing acquisition for the Padres, but overall on the season he presents a good opportunity for hits in a game.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.304, 0.732 — Trea Turner batting against Luis Castillo.
- 0.291, 0.727 — Ketel Marte batting against Brandon Bielak.
- 0.277, 0.724 — Tim Anderson batting against Taylor Hearn.
- 0.301, 0.717 — Bo Bichette batting against Michael Pineda.
- 0.303, 0.715 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Keegan Akin.
- 0.307, 0.714 — Adam Frazier batting against Miles Mikolas.
- 0.303, 0.714 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Michael Pineda.
- 0.299, 0.714 — Jose Iglesias batting against Keegan Akin.
- 0.300, 0.713 — Salvador Perez batting against Chris Flexen.
- 0.286, 0.711 — Starling Marte batting against Oliver Ortega.
Turner tops this list and is the consensus first pick, with Frazier the double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!