The limited action on Thursday moved all the possible massive ties to higher probabilities. The most action took place in the race for the second NL Wild Card slot, where the three teams trailing the idle Cardinals all won. The Reds, Padres, and Phillies each gained half a game in that race, with the probability of a four-way now at 0.0025 and the probability of a three-way tie (eliminating the Phillies) at 0.021. The top three teams all have 76 wins. The most likely win total for either tie comes in at 84.

The Yankees lost to the Orioles as the Red Sox and Toronto sat idle. That increased the chance of a three-way tie for the two AL Wild Card slots to 0.0238. The most likely win total for that tie would be 91. Note that with Oakland winning the long-shot five way tie improved as well, but that one still looks out of reach.

The Braves and Rockies were washed out with a make-up date to be determined. With the Mets idle and the Phillies winning, the probability of a three-way tie in the NL East increased to 0.0036. Note that the make-up game may need to wait for the end of the season if it makes a difference in the standing. Imagine the four-team tie for the wild card with the Braves 1/2 game ahead of the Phillies. The game between the Braves and the Rockies would need to be made up on the Monday after the season ends. If the Braves and Phillies tie, then Tuesday there would be a playoff for the NL East title, the loser then going into a two-day tournament to determine the second wild card.

For today, here are the best outcomes to increase the probability of a massive tie:

• The Yankees defeat the Guarindians.
• The Blue Jays down the Twins.
• The Red Sox fall to the Orioles.
• The Reds dodge the Dodgers.
• The Phillies and Mets can go either way, with more weight to the Phillies winning.
• The Padres defeather the Cardinals. San Diego taking two of three would make this a good weekend.
• The Braves lose to the Giants.