September 20, 2021

Massive Tie Scenarios

Sunday did little to improve the chances for a massive tie at the end of the season. The one race that did improve was the NL East, where the Braves won, but the Mets beat the Phillies to stay seven games down in the loss column. The Braves finish the season with three against Philadelphia and three against the Mets, so those two teams have a chance to bring Atlanta back to their level. Current probability of a three-way tie in the NL East sits at .0029, with the most likely win total at 82.

The three-way tie for the two AL Wild Card slots took a hit as both Boston and Toronto won, while the Yankees lost. The probability drops to 0.018, the lowest in a week. The most likely win total for this tie would be 91 wins. The Athletics won, however, so I am now also tracking a four-way tie involving Oakland, and that stands at 0.0024, also with 91 wins being the most likely outcome.

The Cardinals won their eighth game in a row, and the three other NL Wild Card second slot contenders lost. The probability of a three-way tie drops to 0.0098, while the four-way tie drops to 0.0016. The most likely win total for both ties stands at 84.

For today:

  • The Reds sink the Pirates.
  • The Yankees ambush the Rangers.
  • The Phillies nose out the Orioles.
  • The Blue Jays fall to the Rays.
  • The Cardinals lose to the Brewers.
  • The Athletics torpedo the Mariners.
  • The Braves get bit by the Diamondbacks.

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