James Wagner provides a good summary of what transpired on Friday between the major league owners and the union in the collective bargaining agreement negotiations. Rob Manfred and Tony Clark spoke one on one for fifteen minutes, but we don’t know what was said:

Clark and Manfred had a “good conversation” that was “focused on how to move the process forward,” said a league spokesman who spoke to reporters on the condition that he not be named. Clark declined to comment.

NYTimes.com

I’ll discount a comment from anonymous source and throw out the word good, but I do suspect the conversation was about moving the process forward.

These two men both have reputational stakes in this process. I have to believe that Clark’s job is on the line. After all, he signed the last CBA which led to an average decrease in player salaries. The concessions likely to come out of this agreement won’t change that much. Younger players will get some more money, but not anything near what they are worth. A draft lottery won’t be that big a deal, nor will the rise in the competitive balance tax. The biggest win will be the reduction in free agent compensation, but teams are moving away from signing older free agents anyway.

This CBA will leave in place a complex system that is easily gamed. I suspect that in five years the players will be as unhappy as they were before, and they will internally blame Clark.

For Manfred, he touts himself as a tough negotiator who gets deals done. The 2020 debacle showed that isn’t always the case. If the players win their grievance, it’s going to cost the owners, and the owners don’t like a commissioner that costs them money.

Both men need a win.

I’ll also point out that it would be in MLB’s interest to keep Clark on the other side of the table. Clark does not do the big ask. Does MLB want a union leader who might say, “Limits on amateur signing bonuses did not work out the way we expected, so we want that removed.” Or “We want free agency after three years or age 25, which ever comes first.”

So give the players a symbolic win. The players make a proposal that gives them 55% of what they want. Rather than fight for the last five percent, MLB says okay. The owners basically keep the current structure intact, but the players get to say they won. Manfred and Clark keep their jobs.

Would it work? Probably not. We’re talking about negotiations between hyper-competitive people. A win is not win unless it’s total victory. Stay tuned.