For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.344 — Rafael Devers batting against Bruce Zimmermann.
- 0.333 — J.D. Martinez batting against Bruce Zimmermann.
- 0.330 — Luis Arraez batting against Zack Greinke.
- 0.321 — Tim Anderson batting against Marcus Stroman.
- 0.314 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Bruce Zimmermann.
- 0.312 — Yadiel Hernandez batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.300 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.298 — Trea Turner batting against Zach Davies.
- 0.297 — Josh Bell batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.294 — Mike Trout batting against Jose Berrios.
- 0.294 — Carlos Correa batting against Zack Greinke.
Zimmermann is a low walk, relatively low strikeout pitcher, and the three great hitters on the Red Sox are hot. We also understand why the Nationals tried to corner the market on Hernandezes.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.321, 0.756 — Tim Anderson batting against Marcus Stroman.
- 0.344, 0.750 — Rafael Devers batting against Bruce Zimmermann.
- 0.333, 0.739 — J.D. Martinez batting against Bruce Zimmermann.
- 0.330, 0.733 — Luis Arraez batting against Zack Greinke.
- 0.298, 0.725 — Trea Turner batting against Zach Davies.
- 0.314, 0.720 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Bruce Zimmermann.
- 0.312, 0.703 — Yadiel Hernandez batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.272, 0.698 — Jose Iglesias batting against Josiah Gray.
- 0.270, 0.695 — Manny Machado batting against Roansy Contreras.
- 0.264, 0.694 — Ty France batting against Luis Garcia.
MLB hit average continues to rise, now at .214. This may be the first time this season that at least two players post probabilities of .750 or better. Devers stands as the consensus first pick, with Anderson and Martinez tied for the double down slot. Trea Turner’s hit streak reached twenty games on Saturday.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!