Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals comes into Saturday leading the NL in Batting Average, tied for the lead in RBI, and trailing in the Home Run Race by two. Looking at comparisons of Goldschmidt with the second place or leading hitter in the category, one can come up with an approximation of the probability of Goldschmidt winning the triple crown.

The HR and BA probabilities are straight forward, and this spreadsheet shows the calculations. Goldschmidt holds a 0.60 probability of winning the batting title, and a 0.155 probability of winning the HR title (he trails Kyle Schwarber by two).

The RBI calculation uses a simulation of seasons from this point forward, and depends on the history this season of the player coming up in certain on-base situations. Out of 10,000 simulations, Goldschmidt wins or ties 4022 times, and Pete Alonso wins or ties 6417 times. That gives Goldschmidt a 0.40 probability of winning the RBI title.

You can see why Alonso has the edge here. He’s come to the plate with the most runners on base this season 76 more than Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt is better at delivering those runners, but sometimes quantity overwhelms quality.

Putting that together, 0.60*0.155*0.40 = 0.0372, the probability of Goldschmidt winning the triple crown. It’s not an easy task.