November 27, 2022

The Power of In Play

Cyril Morong notes that Joe DiMaggio is the only player with at least fifty home run in road games to collect more home runs than strikeouts away from home. This represents a great lesson for power hitters on the value of limiting strikeouts. DiMaggio hit .334/.405/.611 in road games. His BABIP came in at .310, but his BABNIP (HR/(HR+K)) came in at .505. So he hit 24 points above his BABIP. It’s tough to find that kind of batting average enhancement today from home runs and strikeouts.

The closest thing we may have to this kind of BA/BABIP ratio comes off the bat of Nolan Arenado. Arenado, who strikes out at about 14% for his career, owns a number of seasons in which he posted a higher BA than BABIP. Still, for his career, his BABIP stands at .292 and his BA at .289.

One thing that would be extremely exciting for the game would be a run at a .400 BA. That’s possible if a player can combine a high BABIP with a good number of home runs and few strikeouts.

In the last 45 years MLB saw three runs at .400. Rod Carew in 1977 may have been the last real run at that average when he hit .388. Carew reached that mark in a full season, coming to the plate 694 times. George Brett in 1980 hit .390, but with forty-five games missed barely qualified for the batting title with 515 PA. Tony Gwynn hit .394 in the strike-shortened 1994 season when he came to the plate 475 times.

Carew hit his .388 with a BABIP of .408, hitting 14 home runs. Gwynn’s .394 came on BABIP of .389, hitting 12 home runs. Only Brett was DiMaggio like, hitting .390 on a .368 BABIP. He smacked 24 home runs while striking out just 22 times.

Ichiro Suzuki at his best hit .372 on a BABIP of .399. He did not strikeout much, just 63 times, low by modern standards. With just eight home runs, however, his BABNIP was a drag on his batting average.

So how do we engineer a George Brett, someone who combines the BABIP and power of Mike Trout with the in play skills of Luiz Arraez? Would it be possible to get Fernando Tatis Jr.or Bo Bichette to cut their strikeouts in half? Or is it just impossible with modern pitchers and bullpen usage not to strike out a ton?

MLB keeps experimenting with rules at the minor league level, mostly to improve the pace of the game. The limited shifts rule for the 2023 season serves the purpose of producing more base hits on balls in play. That will help in the quest for a .400 hitter. Maybe MLB should think of rule changes in terms of producing a .400 hitter. How does the game either devalue strikeouts or increase the incentives for balls in play? That to me is the next big problem to solve after pace of play.

4 thoughts on “The Power of In Play

  1. Cyril Morong

    Interesting post. Ichiro Suzuki was only 945th out of 952 guys on the list with a road HR/K ratio of .096.

    It might be hard to engineer a Brett since even back then not many guys had more HRs than Ks.

    I also wonder if guys like Brett and DiMaggio try to hard just to make contact with two strikes and they end up sacrificing too much power. Brett’s career SLG with 2 strikes is .325. From 1974-1993 that ranks him 31st in SLG in the AL for guys with 1000+ PAs with 2 strikes. That is much lower than is overall rank of 9th for guys with 2500 overall PAs

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  2. Cyril Morong

    It turns out they only have the pitch data from 1988 onward at BB Ref, so it is not much of his career which probably distorts things alot.

    So with 2 strikes from 1988-1993 his AVG-OBP-SLG was .219-.283-.325 (so ISO is .106). Overall it was .288-.352-.449. ISO is .161

    With 2 strikes from 1988-1993 the AL AVG-OBP-SLG was .189-.261-.276. ISO is .087. Overall it was .261-.329-.392. ISO is .131.

    With 2 strikes Brett’s ISO is .055 lower than overall. For the AL as a league the difference is .044. So that makes it look like he gave up some power with 2 strikes compared to the average player. But I think I would actually need to get the non-two strike numbers. There might be a distortion if Brett’s share of PAs with 2 strikes is different than the league average. Also, with Brett being a lefty, a disproportionate share of his PAs would get to 2 strikes against LHP compared to RHP. If his power is generally lower against LHP, that could explain the difference. Not sure how much that might matter

    So

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  3. Cyril Morong

    To make a long story short. Brett’s IOS falls .086 moving from non 2 strike cases to 2 strike cases. For the league overall it fell .076. So he did sacrifice a bit more power than average, but it is a small difference

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