December 29, 2022

Low Offer for Segura

Jean Segura agreed to a two year deal with the Marlins for $17 million:

It’s the first free agent move of the offseason for the Marlins, who are coming off a 69-93 season — their 12th losing record in the last 13 years. And they’ve watched NL East rivals Atlanta, Philadelphia and the New York Mets make no shortage of moves to try and improve their loaded rosters; the Braves were World Series champions in 2021, and the Phillies won the NL pennant this year before falling to Houston in the World Series.

Chron.com

I find that salary extremely low. I see Segura as delivering around four WAR over the next two seasons. The two projection systems at FanGraphs show him generating 2.6 WAR in 2023. His injury in 2022 was a broken finger.

Segura is in his 30s, but not old. It would seem to me that teams believe he is an injury risk, and/or a decline risk. Whatever reason, the Marlins did a good job capturing value here. While he is not a game changer, making low-cost, potentially high reward moves is what the team should be doing. They are paying a two-WAR player like a one-WAR player.

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